HorsesAss.Org

The most polled gubernatorial race in the country this election season, hands down, is Washington state. The rematch between Dino Rossi (“G.O.P. Party”) and Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) has had 36 polls taken, starting in August of 2005, just two months after a court declined to overturn Gregoire’s victory.

And now we have one new SurveyUSA poll to add to the collection. The poll of 714 people, taken on the 11th and 12th of August, shows Gregoire leading Rossi by a slim 50% to 48%.

The +2% advantage for Gregoire is smaller than the +4% found a week ago in a Rasmussen poll. It is much smaller than the +12% found in a late July Strategic Vision poll. But it matches the +2% found by a late July Strategic Vision poll.

That makes four polls all taken within the last three weeks. As can be seen in this figure of polling over the last three months, the race has scarcely moved provided one ignores those Elway polls.

Mr. Elway has offered a defense of his poll numbers, perhaps in response to a somewhat “underinformed” Eric Earling commentary. Elway discusses sampling differences (registered, known voters versus random digit dialing used by national pollsters), different modes of communications (humans used by Elway versus computer used by SurveyUSA and Rasmussen), question wording, and party identification (Elway uses the Washington state ballot labels). I think Elway’s arguments are all reasonable, and given Elway’s smaller sample size, I am not surprised to see this magnitude of difference between Elway compared to Rasmussen and SurveyUSA. Still, I’m not going to declare that Elway is “right” and the others are “wrong.” There is simply no way to know which pollsters have (statistical) bias until one can observe the performance against a number of actual elections. My preferred strategy is to take ’em all, and combine multiple polls that are close together in time, and hope any biases cancel.

A Monte Carlo analysis of just the current SurveyUSA poll (methods) suggests that, if an election were held now, Gregoire would have a 66.6% chance of winning and Rossi would have a 33.4% chance of winning. Here is the distribution of vote outcomes based on the polling information:

The more interesting analysis, however, includes all four of the polls taken in the last three weeks. This seems reasonable if we are allowed to assume that voter opinion has remained relatively static over these three weeks (i.e. no breaking scandals, “Macaca” moments, natural disasters, etc.)

The four pooled polls mentioned above give Gregoire 49.3% of the “votes” and Rossi 44.5% of the “votes”, with 6.2% undecided. There were 2,272 people surveyed who selected either Rossi or Gregoire. The Monte Carlo results suggests that Gregoire would win an election held now with a 95.9% probability and Rossi would win with a 4.1% probability. Here is the distribution of vote outcomes for the combined analysis:

Here are a couple of observations that back up these results. The last time Rossi led in a poll was in February. There have been 16 polls taken since then. One of those polls was a tie and Gregoire led in the other 15. Before that, one has to go back another seven polls, back to November 2006, before finding this poll in which Rossi led.

The take-home message is that (1) Gregoire has repeatedly held the lead in this race. It is highly unlikely that this has happened by chance (i.e. the lead is almost certainly real). (2) There has been very little movement in the polling numbers for Rossi or Gregroire over the last 1.5 years. (3) If the non-movement continues, Gregoire will almost certainly win a second term.

This weekend is Seattle Hempfest. I usually spend my time there at the Hemposium stage, listening to panels and other speakers, but there’s plenty more to do, especially if you like spending a nice summer day outside listening to music. Once again, Rick Steves will be there, giving a presentation at the Hemposium stage at 2:40 on Saturday on why he’s fighting so hard to change this country’s marijuana laws. And possibly also about the backwards attitudes of far too many in the media.

It was Michelle Malkin who shot and killed Arkansas Democratic Party chairman Bill Gwatney yesterday. At least, according to Michelle Malkin.

Yes, just hours after the shooting, before Gwatney even died from his wounds, Malkin responds to the tragedy with a defensive post attempting to immunize herself from potential accusations that her right-wing hate-mongering might have played any role in provoking this senseless act of violence. Jesus… talk about a guilty conscience.

And talk about a narcissistic personalty that borders on solipsism. A man had just been mortally wounded, shot three times in the chest, clearly the target of an assassin’s bullets… and Malkin can only think about herself and her own victimhood as the potential target of a character assassination. Could she be any more insensitive to Gwatney, his family and his friends?

Oh, but she’d already received an email, Malkin cries, telling her that she should be “held accountable” for hate-talk that “turns people to murder.” A lone email, for chrissakes? That’s her justification for this mind-numbingly inappropriate post? A single fucking email?

Shorter Michelle Malkin:

Somebody sent me an email blaming my so-called ‘hate’ for this horrible act of violence against a Democrat Party liberal. Here is that person’s full name and unredacted email address.

And while I’m sure as hell not one to judge a blogger by their comment threads, Malkin is, and in her own heavily vetted thread it is apparently calm, rational, non-hateful discourse to accuse Bill and Hillary Clinton of assassinating Gwatney as a message to Barack Obama that he’ll be next if he doesn’t fall in line.

But you know, we foul-mouthed liberals, we’re the crazies… we’re the dangerous lunatic fringe.

While Gwatney was clearly the victim of a targeted attack, we don’t yet know the motive. We don’t yet know if his assassination was an ideological hate crime like last month’s Knoxville shootings, or just the kind of everyday tragedy in which sick, personal grudges sometimes (and inevitably) manifest themselves in our heavily armed society.

But if she’s come to the point where she feels the need to preemptively issue a denial of culpability each time news breaks of another Democrat or other such perceived liberal being assaulted or murdered, perhaps Malkin should listen to her guilty conscience the next time she’s tempted to resort to the sort of violent, eliminationist rhetoric that has made her famous. That is, assuming, Malkin still has a conscience.

The Democrats gained some ground in the standings this week, as the Seattle Times endorsed incumbent Rick Larsen over Republican challenger Rick Bart in Washington’s 2nd Congressional District. Using our NHL-style scoreboard (two points for a victory, one point for a tie), that brings our current standings to Republicans 11, Democrats 9.

No doubt some at the Times may find my scoring system arbitrary and unfair, but the scorecard would be tilted even further toward the Republican side if not for my decision to exclude local judicial and legislative races. For example, my standings don’t include the Times endorsement of Republican State Sen. Cheryl Pflug, who they glowingly describe in the lede as an “independent workhorse.” (Isn’t it at least ironic that the highest praise the Times can muster for a Republican these days is to describe them as not really being all that much of one?)

And then there are the Times’ superior court endorsements, where in Position 22 they dismiss the two candidates endorsed by the King County Democrats in favor of the one endorsed by the Republicans. Huh. I guess that’s probably just a coincidence.

In the end, I always expected the standings to be close, but there’s a point to be made in all this, and if you haven’t figured it out already, you’ll just have to wait for my end of endorsement season wrap up. In the meanwhile, here are the current standings:

Seattle Times Endorsements	GP	W	L		T	Pts
Republicans	10	4	3		3	11
Democrats	10	3	4		3	9
Third Parties	9	0	9		0	0

The appearance of Gov. Christine Gregoire at Drinking Liberally last night offered me the perfect opportunity for some gonzo-journalism. All politicians are alike, right? So in the interest of being “fair and balanced” in my journalistic endeavors I pulled out my video camera….

Hey Goldy and all, be careful later this month when you go to Denver. (Props to this Daily Kos diarist.)

CBS4 News has learned if mass arrests happen at the Democratic Convention, those taken into custody will be jailed in a warehouse owned by the City of Denver. Investigator Rick Sallinger discovered the location and managed to get inside for a look.

The newly created lockup is on the northeast side of Denver. Protesters have already given this place a name: “Gitmo on the Platte.”

Inside are dozens are metal cages. They are made out of chain link fence material and topped by rolls of barbed wire.

—snip—

Each of the fenced areas is about 5 yards by 5 yards and there is a lock on the door. A sign on the wall reads “Warning! Electric stun devices used in this facility.”

I love those “free speech zones” like they had under a bridge in Boston in 2004, those were awesome.

But four days after he evaded security officials in his hometown, slipped into Beijing at dawn and submitted his application, Gao, a farmer from Heilongjiang Province, has yet receive permission to display his hand-scrawled poster, which accuses local Communist Party officials and the police of conspiring to steal public money.

If the silence at the protest zones is any indication, Gao’s prospects are not very good.

Five days since the Olympics began, not a single demonstration had taken place at the three city parks approved for protests. In fact, at least four people have been detained for seeking to demonstrate, according to human rights groups and relatives of those who have been seized.

Oops, that appears to be an article about the Olympics in China, my bad. But since it’s basically the same thing, you get the idea.

I’m sure the good delegates of the Washington State Democrats will not stand for this.

Breaking news…

The chairman of the Arkansas Democratic Party was hospitalized in critical condition Wednesday, a party executive said. A television station reported that three shots were fired at party headquarters.

[…] Lee said the secretary told her the man had come into the party’s office and asked to speak with Gwatney. When the secretary said she wouldn’t allow him to meet with Gwatney, the man went into his office and shot him, Lee said.

She said the secretary described the man as in his 40s and white and drove off in a blue truck.

I’ve got no other details, but I dunno, whenever I hear about Democrats being shot by middle aged white guys in pickup trucks, I tend to get a little paranoid.

So what explains Dave Reichert’s pro-oil industry energy agenda in the face of skyrocketing fuel costs and the dire consequences of carbon-induced climate change?  Well, maybe we should just ask some of Dave’s pals who set up that lucrative K Street funder for him… you know, energy industry lobbyists like Dan Maloney (American Petroleum Institute), Brett Shogren (Exelon Corp.), Mike Chappell (Edison International) and Matt Lapinski (Frontier Oil)?

I’m just sayin’.

So… Dave Reichert, struggling to keep pace with Darcy Burner’s overwhelming support from individual contributors, turns to a group of high-powered lobbyists for a quick infusion of cash—including lobbyists representing Airbus parent EADS against Boeing in the controversial tanker deal—and what’s the headline in the Seattle Times? “Words fly over lobbyist for Boeing rival at Reichert fundraiser.”

That’s right, EADS lobbyist Mike Chappell writes Reichert a $500 check and the main story here is the accusation itself, with the Times emphasizing that “Burner spokesman Sandeep Kaushik leaked the EADS lobbyist tie to the online political newspaper Politico.”

“Leaked…?” Really?

leak -verb
9. to disclose secret, esp. official, information anonymously, as to the news media

A) Kaushik is Burner’s communication director; it’s his job to pass information on to the press, even damaging information about her opponent; and B) How exactly do you “leak” information that had already appeared in an article in Roll Call?

All Kaushik did was call Politico’s attention to the fact that an article in Roll Call contradicted editorializing that had appeared in their own publication, causing Politico to write a follow-up story when they determined that the info in Roll Call checked out. And that added tidbit about Chappell writing Reichert a check? That came from good, old fashioned “sleuthing” on the part of the Times reporter Emily Heffter. That’s some “leak.”

Reichert goes begging to lobbyists paid to oppose the interests of his district, and it’s “words flying” that makes the headline, and the Burner campaign’s role in publicizing Reichert’s Airbus connections that makes the lede. And Reichert gets a check from Airbus, but that’s okay, because he says he plans to return it, you know… after he was caught. Jesus… could the Times pedal any softer?

But then, Reichert is the Times’ favorite “conscience driven independent,” so I guess we’re unlikely to see a piece criticizing Reichert for publicly posturing in defense of Boeing against the Alabama/French Connection, and then going back to the other Washington to quietly solicit support from the very people he’s supposedly opposing… folks like EADS lobbyist Chappell, Alabama Aircraft Industries lobbyist Chris Cox, former Tom DeLay henchman (and co-conspirator) Drew Maloney, and the rest of the K Street crowd.

The Times knows damn well how damaging this story really is—hell, it’s exactly crap like this that has destroyed the Republican brand. The “K Street Project,” the “Culture of Corruption,” the cozy relationship between the Republican leadership and their corporate patrons… this is why Democrats took control of both houses in 2006, and this is why they are poised to expand their majority in 2008. And whatever his intentions when he first headed off to Congress, Dave Reichert now finds himself smack dab in the middle of everything that is wrong with the Beltway establishment, totally reliant on (and indebted to) lobbyists and PACs in his desperate efforts to fend off Burner’s challenge.

Darcy Burner on the other hand, with her people-powered politics and her thousands upon thousands of small contributions from individual donors, is indebted to nothing but her own conscience. So if 8th CD voters really want to send somebody to Congress who can truly challenge the corrupting influence of the K Street crowd in both parties, they need to elect a representative who doesn’t have to rely on these very same lobbyists to fund their campaigns. They need to elect Darcy Burner.

Dino Rossi has been doing a lot of whining about attack ads. But then he literally goes on the attack. It almost justifies something like this…

Join us at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally for an evening of politics under the influence. Officially, we start at 8:00 pm at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Some folks show up early for Dinner.

Tonight’s activity will primarily consist of manhandling and tossing out anyone trying to videotape our activities tonight.

If you find yourself in the Tri-Cities area this evening, check out McCranium for the local Drinking Liberally. Otherwise, check out the Drinking Liberally web site for dates and times of a chapter near you.

Update: We had a couple of unannounced visitors at Drinking Liberally tonight:

Demo Kid breaks out WhackyNation bingo.

Apparently fearful that their bitter and genuinely mean-spirited candidate might embarrass himself with his own devastating macaca moment, Dino Rossi’s campaign staffers and supporters have resorted to increasingly aggressive tactics to keep opposition cameras out of public events, and thus the real Dino Rossi out of the public eye. And as the Seattle Times reports this morning, this resulted last week in a Democratic Party cameraman being forcibly dragged out of a press conference at the Seattle Police Officers Guild, and physically restrained by off-duty cops.

“We don’t allow them in to collect attack video,” Rossi spokeswoman Jill Strait said.

But we do allow event organizers to attack the videographer, apparently.

Guild members threatened the cameraman with arrest, but no charges were filed and no fine or penalty issued… because, of course, no laws were broken (except, perhaps, by the off-duty officers). This wasn’t a private fundraiser or other such event, it was a press conference, which by its very nature is an inherently public event, and thus the cameraman had every expectation that he would have the same right to record the proceedings as the several other cameramen in attendance.

“We’re sorry that it had to end that way,” Strait said of Thursday’s incident. “But he wouldn’t have to be escorted off the premises if he had just left when he was asked to. I really think he was trying to provoke an incident by refusing to leave.”

Yeah… it “had to end that way;” he was, after all, “provoking an incident” by quietly standing in the back with all the other cameramen, so I suppose he was lucky to walk away with only a bruised sternum. As one die-hard Rossi supporter enthusiastically suggested in the threads over on Postman’s blog, his response would have been “a bullit [sic] between his eyes, no questions asked.” I guess that’s why Republicans pride themselves as the “law and order” party.

As for the Democrats? Well, I guess we’re just all a bunch of pussies…

A Republican Party worker videotapes appearances by Gregoire, so Steele said it’s hypocritical for Rossi to kick out Akers. Strait said it makes no difference to the Rossi campaign if Gregoire allows herself to be taped by the opposition.

FYI, here’s the video of the rough reception the Republican cameraman gets at Gov. Gregoire’s events:

Jesus Christ… they did everything but offer him milk and cookies. Pussies.

It is great to see this story picked up in the news section of the Times, but I can’t help but wonder if their editorial board—champions of sunshine and open government—will see fit to comment on Rossi’s stunning lack of openness when it comes to endorsement time. This is a candidate who has cameramen forcibly ejected from public events, sometimes even from public property, and who routinely brushes off questions about issues on which he is out of step with Washington voters by curtly responding that “I’m not running on that issue.”

Well, he may not be running on issues like reproductive rights, comprehensive sex education or school vouchers, and he may have carefully avoided taking a public position on gas tax repeal and other controversial initiatives, but voters have a right to know where Rossi stands on all these issues, not just those his pollsters and focus groups tell him best work to his political advantage. And our local press have an obligation to inform the public by relentlessly following up on these questions, rather than just allowing Rossi to shrug them off with a quip like they did in 2004.

In case you haven’t noticed, I’ve been doing a little light posting recently, and that’s because my daughter and I have been out of town this past week visiting my family in Philadelphia. Well, the phone rang tonight during dinner at my sister’s house, and when she checked the caller ID a little while later it read the following:

PLANE CRASH INF
18004483543

Curious, and a bit bewildered, my sister called the number back, only to get the automated phone system of “American Red Cross Blood Services,” with no option to reach a live person after hours.

I sure hope this is some kind of a mistake rather than a calculated effort to get people to pick up the phone or return the call, but spooky as it was at the time, imagine my family’s reaction had this call been received 48 hours later, when my daughter and I would indeed have been on an airplane heading back to Seattle.

Holy crap.

First there was email spam, and then comment spam. Is caller ID spam the next big thing?