HorsesAss.Org

I didn’t get to bed too late last night, my head hitting the pillow by 1AM, but once again awoke a few hours later, this time sick as dog. (Actually, it was more like sick as a cat, if you know what I mean.)

Perhaps it was the free margaritas at the Daily Kos party (contrary to the name of my weekly social event, I don’t really drink all that liberally, and I didn’t last night either, but I almost never drink liquor, so who knows?), or perhaps it was the rare ahi tacos I had at dinner (yeah… order raw fish in Texas… that’s a great idea), but whatever the culprit, five hours later my sweat glands are my only orifices with anything left to spew.

(If you want to see a little of me in a less peaked state, Bill Scher has a brief video interview with me up on Liberal Oasis.)

Fortunately, today’s schedule was delayed, pushing my 10:30 panel back to 11:05, so I’ve got a little extra time to recover, sip a little green tea, and listen to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi gamely take questions from a crowd comprised of a couple thousand folks who have never been shy about pointing out our many disappointments with the 110th Congress. The first question, from moderator and Netroots Nation executive director Gina Cooper, regarded when Karl Rove might find his way into that little jail cell on Capitol Hill for refusing to comply with a subpoena? Pelosi didn’t exactly answer the question, but she did say “He certainly deserves to be there”, much to the appreciation of the audience.

Anyway, I don’t plan to live blog the event, but I may post an update if anything particularly interesting happens. Now where’s that bathroom…?

UPDATE:
As expected, Pelosi just introduced “surprise” guest Al Gore. And as expected, he was greeted by an enthusiastic standing ovation.

UPDATE, UPDATE:
The quote of the day thus far from Gore (slightly paraphrased):

“Responding to today’s high gas prices by drilling new wells that won’t come online for 10 to 15 years, and most of which will be sold to China anyway, makes as much sense as responding to a threat from Afghanistan by invading another country.”

From the folks who brought you I Can Haz Cheezburger, it’s Failblog:

I’d barely shut my eyes for three hours when I found myself inexplicably awake, watching the sun attempt to crawl above the early morning Austin haze, the first tentative rays of light glinting off the endless rows of air conditioning units that neatly grow like cabbages across the flattop roofs of the surrounding buildings.

Kinda incoherent poetic metaphors, huh? Yeah, well, just be glad you’re not getting a fucking haiku from me, considering my accumulated sleep deficit over the past few days.

I had planned to get to bed relatively early last night, but somehow found myself at 1:30 AM, sitting in an IHOP with Darcy Burner and a bunch of veterans. Vote Vets co-founder and chairman Jon Soltz sat across the table, passionately detailing the Veteran Administration’s many bureaucratic nightmares as he relentlessly made his way through an enormous, whipped cream topped stack of chocolate chip pancakes. On his own unexpected politicization Soltz described heading to Iraq a true believer, only to have reality—political, military and otherwise—rip the veil from his eyes. “It was like learning that your parents are not really your parents,” Soltz explained as he tried to relate the sense of betrayal that accompanied his own disillusionment.

Perhaps the biggest surprise for those who don’t know squat about the liberal blogosphere might be that while 20-year-old slackers in bathrobes are in short supply here at Netroots Nation, veterans and military personnel are out in full force. At last night’s keynote, Gen. Wes Clark called out various groups one by one to stand up and be acknowledged… teachers, medical professionals, candidates, first responders, social workers, etc…. but by far the largest group in attendance were the veterans, and it was for them that the crowd reserved its loudest and longest round of applause.

It is an inside netroots joke that we sometimes refer to ourselves as “dirty fucking hippies,” the inherent punchline being that this description couldn’t be further from the truth. If we are radicals, we are the radicalized middle, a segment of the population historically loathe to forsake economic security for the sake of a mere cause, yet somehow provoked into producing a populist uprising. That veterans like Soltz and Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas Zuniga provide two of our most outspoken voices should come as no surprise from a broad movement that draws support from nearly every corner of American life.

For those who hope or imagine that Darcy’s close connections with the netroots will ultimately prove to hurt her standing with her district’s suburban voters, well, you should have been at IHOP last night, where Darcy was literally embraced by veterans who trust that she will deliver the kind of leadership, respect and support that they deserve. Yet more evidence that we are in fact a netroots nation.

Gov. Gregoire has a diary up at Daily Kos right now. Here’s a slice:

Why are they attacking me so early? Because they know there is something happening in our country – people are hungry for a new direction, away from the Bush Administration.

They are so aware of this fact that my opponent filed as a member of the “GOP Party,” hiding the fact that he is a Republican. And what is on my opponent’s website? The word “Change” in the largest font you have ever seen.

We all know that voters are desperate for change in our nation, ready to turn around the failed policies of the Bush Administration. But voters are smart. They know the kind of change they are looking for.

Republican Dino Rossi can spend millions on attacks, pretend he isn’t a Republican and even give lip service to change, but he can’t hide his George Bush record.

No comment…

[via The General]

I get email:

For someone who doesn’t want to be tied to Bush, Rossi is doing a shitty job of defense. Sending out press releases talking about the Governor talking about how you named your dog after Bush?!?! Are you fucking serious?

The emailer is referring to a press release sent by the Rossi campaign in response to this quote by Gregoire:

“In fact, he is so enamored with George W. Bush he has named his dog [Dubya]. I feel sorry for the dog.”

When Rossi should be trying his best to show voters that he’s not in league with Mr. 28 Percent, this release shows he’s not taking taking that advice. What a bunch of whiners.

And this photo above, well… let’s just say that campaigns pay people 4k a month to keep them from happening.

Over at Slog, Dominic Holden has posted a copy of the heavily-redacted police report from Tuesday’s raid on the Lifevine medical marijuana office in the University District. The police involvement in this case began when the operator of a barbershop adjacent to the Lifevine office reported the smell of marijuana to police. According to the Seattle Times, the barbershop owner was unaware that the office was being used by medical marijuana patients.

When the police arrived, Martin Martinez from Lifevine cooperated with them (Martin was actually one of the people who helped pass the initiative in 1998 that was intended to make medical marijuana legal in this state). After communicating with Ellen O’Neill-Stephens in the King County Prosecuting Attorney’s office, the police were then able to obtain a warrant to conduct a search. During the search, the police took out a wall in the office, convinced that there was a secret grow operation behind it. They found no plants growing anywhere.

They then took both medicine (12 ounces) and patient files from the office. In an interview with KUOW this morning, King County Prosecuting Attorney Dan Satterberg acknowledged that the medical files should not have been taken and they are being returned this afternoon. The police are still refusing to return the medicine, even though the amount taken is within the draft 60-day supply limits proposed by the Department of Health.

Even as this situation inches towards a positive resolution, there are still a lot of questions. Why did the police take the files in the first place? Were they authorized by O’Neill-Stephens to do so? Is SPD going to pay for the wall they damaged? And how are the actions of SPD in any way compliant with Initiative 75, which made adult marijuana use the lowest priority for the city’s law enforcement, so that they could, you know, deal with real crimes?

And there’s one other question here that’s not directly related to marijuana laws. Why didn’t the barbershop owner try to find out why there was a marijuana odor coming from the office next door before calling the cops? This is a peculiar Seattle trait that I’ve noticed. People here will call in NATO to intervene with a neighborhood dispute before they’ll actually knock on their neighbor’s door and ask what’s up. I just don’t get it.

Dino Rossi said that we need to move away from the gas tax since fewer people are driving.

Dino Rossi said today that we need an 8-lane 520 bridge because more people are driving.

The progressive group Fuse Washington calls for an investigation into Sutherland’s other big election year problem:

We call it the Katrina Syndrome – when a government agency’s failure to do its job compounds the suffering and destruction generated by a natural disaster. We saw it in New Orleans and now we see it right here in Washington with the massive storm that hit Chehalis last December.

Sunday’s Seattle Times featured a shocking investigative report on how widespread failures at the Department of Natural Resources (DNR), under Lands Commissioner Doug Sutherland, contributed to the landslides, flooding, and destruction during December’s storm. According to the Times, the DNR reduced monitoring and allowed Weyerhaeuser to clear-cut dangerous, unstable slopes with “scant oversight,” despite a history of landslides from previous logging, clear evidence of unstable slopes, and concerns from local officials.

Meanwhile, Commissioner Sutherland maintains that the Agency’s current oversight is “enough.” We also find it disturbing that the Timber Industry accounts for over half of the contributions to his re-election campaign.

We believe that accountability matters, and that the government — including the Department of Natural Resources — has a duty to enforce laws that protect public health and safety. Because Commissioner Sutherland refuses to clean up the DNR’s act, we are calling on the State Auditor to investigate the DNR’s failure to perform its responsibilities.

[You can sign their petition here.]

I don’t think I’ve seen a politician swivel so quickly from grabbing ass to covering ass.

Thankfully, we’ve got a great candidate in Peter Goldmark, who’s more “kick ass” than “grab ass”.

SurveyUSA has come out with their July poll in the Washington state gubernatorial contest. The poll shows Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) leading challenger Dino Rossi (GOP-Party) 49% to 46%. The poll of 666 people was taken from July 13th to July 15th.

The new poll follows the release of two other polls within the last week. A few days ago, Moore Information released a poll in this race that was taken from July 9 to July 10. It showed Gregoire and Rossi tied at 45%. The Moore Information poll was paid for by the Rossi campaign.

Last Friday, a poll was released by Rasmussen Reports, showing Gregoire leading Rossi, 49% to 43%. That poll was taken on July 9th. Gregoire led Rossi by single digit margins in all three June polls, including last month’s SurveyUSA poll that gave Gregoire a +3% advantage.

I’ll offer two Monte Carlo analyses using the new poll. First is an analysis of the poll numbers in the new SurveyUSA in order to estimate the probability that Gregoire (and Rossi) would win an election held right now. I simulated a million gubernatorial elections of 666 voters each, where each voter had a 49% chance of voting for Gregoire, a 46% chance of voting for Rossi and a 5% chance of voting for neither.

Gregoire won 780,736 of the simulated elections and Rossi won 11,542 times. This suggests that, in an election now, Gregoire would have a 79% probability of winning and Rossi would have a 21% probability of winning. A statistician would point out that Gregoire’s lead in this poll is within the margin of error (i.e. her probability of winning is less than 95%).

Here is a plot showing the distribution of votes in the million elections (blue bars are wins for Gregoire and red bars are Rossi wins):

The second analysis combines the polls from Rasmussen Reports, Moore Information, and SurveyUSA. Since the combined responses were all taken within one week, from July 9th through the 15th, we could look at the combined polls as the best evidence available for who would win the election now.

The combined polls yield a pool of 1,565 polled people, of whom 751 (48.0%) voted for Gregoire, 703 (44.9%) who voted for Rossi, and 111 (7.1%) who voted for neither. Again, I simulate 1,000,000 elections, this time with 1,565 people.

Gregoire won 893,646 of the simulated elections and Rossi won 101,700 times. The results suggest that, if an election were held now, Gregoire would win with an 89.9% probability, and Rossi would win with a 10.2% probability.

Here is a plot showing the distribution of votes in the million elections for the combined polls:

SurveyUSA also polled for the presidential election in Washington state. Sen. Barack Obama (D) leads Sen. John McCain (R) 55% to 39%. Obama’s lead is well outside the 3.9% margin of error for the poll.

(Cross-posted at Hominid Views.)

I’m blogging through Sunday from Netroots Nation in Austin… which probably means I won’t be blogging all that much. Just registered and got my goody bag, the most useful item being the bottle opener/key chain from Act Blue.

Another item that may come in handy is a t-shirt from ONE.org, which I’ll probably put on after I sweat through the half dozen other shirts I brought with me. It is so humid here, I’m sweating like a pig. Indoors. In air conditioning. And it’s only 8:30 AM. Can’t imagine the torment once the temperatures rise into the mid nineties.

Folks like to complain about Seattle’s endless rain, but my sixteen years in its temperate clime have turned me into a weather pussy.

UPDATE:
Sitting in a session, The Pundit Project: How To Outtalk The Talking Heads, my first of the convention, and looking around me it seems that at 45 years old, balding, and with a graying beard, I’m pretty much the median blogger.

This week the panel was briefly joined by Democratic Candidate for Washington State Attorney General and current Pierce County Executive John Ladenburg, who discusses Sound Transit’s next moves and that Washington State is second worst in the nation for consumer fraud. Next Goldy seeks free legal advice from John on whether current Attorney General Rob McKenna has thrown our primary election into chaos through incompetence.

The discussion then gets all touchy-feely over the Doug Sutherland sexual harassment scandal and contemplates Peter Goldmark as Sutherland’s replacement. The local political races add a wonky finish to the podcast.

Goldy was joined by Seattle P-I columnist Joel Connelly, John Ladenburg, The Stranger’s Erica C. Barnett, HorsesAss blogger Will, and Eat the State, KEXP and occasional HorsesAss contributor Geov Parrish.

The show is 50:12, and is available here as an MP3:

[Audio:http://www.podcastingliberally.com/podcasts/podcasting_liberally_july_15_2008.mp3]

[Recorded live at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. Special thanks to creators Gavin and Richard for hosting the site.]

It took four months, and a little prodding, but the Seattle Times has finally published a story on the Commissioner of Public Lands Doug Sutherland’s well documented sexual harassment of a young DNR employee:

Washington’s public-lands commissioner, Doug Sutherland, inappropriately touched and made remarks to a young female employee who soon quit the Department of Natural Resources despite his formal apology, according to public documents on the incident from his own department.

During a workplace meeting in 2005, Sutherland touched the woman’s back and waist and made suggestive comments that made her uncomfortable, according to written accounts from the woman and a witness.

After an internal investigation, Sutherland met with the woman at her request and apologized to her. He agreed that he had violated departmental policy on appropriate behavior, according to the documents.

There now, that wasn’t so hard, was it?

Yeah sure, the headline emphasizes the apology over the offense (because that’s the most compelling part of the story, right?) and the reporter doesn’t seem to care much for sizzle, but even given the fairest shake possible, Sutherland still doesn’t come off looking too good. Given the front page placement and the factual, if dry lede, I’d say I’m pretty satisfied with coverage.

A couple of comments though…

But details about the incident are emerging at a sensitive time for Sutherland, 71, a Republican and former Pierce County executive who is running for a third term overseeing more than 5 million acres of state lands and logging on private timberlands.

True, but perhaps the timing wouldn’t have been quite so sensitive if the Times and other news organizations had run this story months ago when they first got ahold of the documents?

The Seattle Times in late February received the documents detailing the allegations from critics of Sutherland who back his Democratic opponent, Peter Goldmark.

And your point is? What, you expect Sutherand’s supporters to dig up dirt on their candidate? But I guess that’s the type of observation we should expect when the Times assigns a political scandal to their environmental reporter.

The Times did not publish a story at the time. The details were first publicly reported online in a Seattle-based blog, horsesass.org, on Tuesday.

You’re welcome.

Sutherland has maintained that his contact with the woman was simply meant to be a friendly gesture. And, in an unpublished interview in April with a Seattle Times reporter, Sutherland specifically disputed that his remarks had been lewd.

“I have no recollection of saying anything like that,” he said. “Nor do I believe I would have.”

Really? And yet Sutherland told HR:

“The incident, as [REDACTED] describes it, is essentially what happened. The disconnect is in how she felt and what my intent was.”

I dunno, doesn’t seem like much of a dispute there to me. As for Sutherland’s assertion that he “simply meant [it] to be a friendly gesture,” well, it doesn’t really matter what Sutherland intended. Legally, harassment has little to do with the harasser’s intent, and everything to do with the victim’s perception. And the perception on the part of the victim and the witnesses seemed pretty damn bad.

But I don’t want to rely solely on my own judgment on this, so I forwarded my post to University of Washington Sociology professor Pepper Schwartz, a nationally renowned author and speaker on sexuality, work relationships and other issues, and I asked her if she could help me put this incident into some context.

“I do think this is an unnecessary and unfortunate experience,” Dr. Schwartz replied via email. “The person in question was treating this young woman as a piece of meat or an object rather than as a junior employee. It really is demeaning and inappropriate and even if it wasn’t meant to intimidate or embarrass the woman, it certainly would have that impact.”

Dr. Schwartz went on to address the broader issue of workplace harassment: “The more junior a person, the more her status and dignity are at risk; this was exactly the wrong approach. I don’t know if it fits the definition of sexual harassment, because as I understand the term it has to be a repeated act. But certainly it was loutish, humiliating and has no place in a work environment. It certainly could and did have a negative effect on her standing at the time and her feelings about being an employee in that place for the future.”

There’s simply no excusing Sutherland’s behavior, regardless of his excuses. This was rotten behavior, and rotten management. And voters need to ask themselves this November, whether he is the candidate best able to manage the hundreds of employees at DNR.