UPDATE: An analysis using newer polls can be found here.
As promised, here is my first analysis of a 2012 match-up, using state head-to-head polls, between Pres. Barack Obama (D) and former congressman Newt Gingrich (R).
The Monte Carlo analysis gives Obama an average of 416 electoral votes to Gingrich’s 122. Obama won all 100,000 of the simulated elections, suggesting he would certainly win an election held now.
Now you can see why the Republican Establishment cannot let Newt get the nomination. He loses badly against Obama.
Obama | Gingrich |
100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
Mean of 416 electoral votes | Mean of 122 electoral votes |
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
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