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Early this morning, Darryl presented a brief discussion of yesterday’s results in the gubernatorial race. He introduced a model of its eventual outcome:

• take the actual county-by-county D-R percentages from November 6
• apply county-specific 2008 turnout percentages
• estimate the final outcome between Inslee and McKenna

This may be, as he explains, a conservative model, in that recent elections have demonstrated a generalized increase in Democratic percentages over the days of post-Election Day tabulations. As I explained in a DailyKos diary about the 2010 Murray-Rossi Senate race (posted on the Friday after Election Day:

During the day on Thursday, 22 of the 39 counties added ballots to their totals, counting a total of 207,170 votes in the Senate race. Patty Murray received 113,085 (54.6%) of those votes, with smarmy huckster Dino Rossi pulling down the remaining 94,085 votes, 45.4% of the day’s total.

As she did on Wednesday, Patty increased her percentage of the vote in most of the reporting counties, 16 of the 22. But that doesn’t come close to describing how she dominated the day. You see, the counties in which Murray did worse on Thursday than she had been doing theretofore (Asotin, Clark, Cowlitz, Grant, Lewis, and Pend Oreille) tallied only 27,836 of the day’s ballots. That is, a mere 13.4% of the Thursday votes were from counties where Patty underperformed. Counties where she outperformed her previous level comprised 86.6% of the day’s counted ballots.

Patty even won the day in several red counties. For instance, she took 50.7% of Island County’s 4031 Wednesday ballots, though her overall votes percentage there is 49.7%. Pierce always seems to hover near the break-even point, and Patty’s 50.6% on Wednesday (22,891 ballots) hardly budged her cumulative 49.7% mark. And then there’s Klickitat County, where Murray’s 52.9% (359 of 688 ballots) was shockingly high. It raised her cumulative share of the small county’s overall vote from 41.4% to 42.3%.

For context, Murray won 50.5% statewide on Tuesday night, 53.4% on Wednesday (cumulatively 50.8%), and 54.6% on Thursday (reaching a cumulative 51.3% over the three days). Two nights after the election, her overall share of the vote had increased by almost a full percent.

So Darryl’s model, wherein the D-R percentage doesn’t change over time, is a conservative one.

I too have developed a model for estimating the eventual outcome of the election. It’s rather different from Darryl’s. What I do is to “believe” what the counties report to the Secretary of State. By which I mean that on each night I assume (pretend might be a better word) that the total number of ballots that will be processed by a county equals the sum of their Total Ballots Counted to Date and their Estimated Ballots on Hand to be Processed, as reported on the SoS’s Voter Turnout page. My estimate consists of combining each county’s current D-R percentages with the sum defined above.
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I had to get up way early this morning to take Kathy to SeaTac, and had a few minutes to look at the election results in the gubernatorial race.

As things stood early this morning, Jay Inslee (D) was leading Rob McKenna (R) by 2.6% and a total of 50,209 votes. Of course only a fraction of the vote has been tallied.

To get a quick projection, I used the 2008 turn-out figures for total turnout by county (not turnout by party, just totals for each county). From there, I estimated the remaining votes left to be counted. Then I used the D & R percentages observed in the first ballot night drop to estimate the number of new votes expected for each candidate.

This last step is controversial. After all, we usually observe that later ballots are increasingly D-leaning. But, doing it this way should give us a worse case scenario for Inslee—if past trends hold this election.

What did I find? Inslee still leads at the end of the election, but by only 1.1%, not the healthier 2.6% observed at the end of election day. And, that translates to a 44,000 vote win for Inslee.

So…if the late ballots trend D (typical), Inslee should be in good shape. If they don’t trend at all, Inslee still wins in a squeaker.

However, if they trend R…we might even have to start talking “recount.” And then, may god(s) have mercy on our souls.

– A pretty damn good night.

– Donald Trump wants a revolution because of the electoral college. Also, maybe he should have waited until the California votes had come in.

– But Bill O’Reilly is worse.

– Rosemary McAuliffe keeps her seat.

– When do I take down my Jay Inslee sign in my window and take the Obama button off my coat?

– Technology is helping kick polio’s ass.

– Don’t block the window seat.

Polls are closing in the East, and we have ourselves a horse race!

The Montlake Alehouse has CNN on the TeeVee box, but I’ll sometimes switch to NPR when their election coverage starts.

(Note: Times in PST)

4:47: Via Twitter:

Larry Sabato ‏@LarrySabato
OHIO: Vast majority of pre-election polls & now election exit poll show Obama up 1-3%. Either all wrong or Obama wins.

4:50: A few minutes ago, Wolf Blitzer called South Carolina for Romney. And when he showed the vote totals, Obama was leading by a 4 to 1 margin. There were only 10,000s or so total votes. Blitzer had some ‘splaining to do!

4:57: Huh…Obama is still up by 57% in SC, with 40,000 or so counted.

5:02: CNN projects a bunch of states and it is Obama 64 EVs to Romney 40 EVs.

5:25: I just put on NPR and heard Matthew Continetti say that we are heading for a national vote/electoral vote split. E.J. Dionne expresses some skepticism….

5:31: I was wrong! Mitt Romney takes Tennessee!

5:43: It’s Romney 82, Obama 64 EV over at CNN. Prepare the capsules, my friends…..

6:02: Well…it would seem Romney did NOT have a good chance of taking Michigan. CNN calls it for Obama.

6:13: Geez…with Michigan out of the picture, Romney has a very tough road to 269!

6:25: Huh. Obama is way up in Colorado. How could that be? I thought Republicans were WAAAAAY ahead in the early voting?!?

6:42: Axelrod’s mustache breathes a sigh of relief! Pennsylvania is called for Barack Obama. Huh…what happened to that momentum the Romney camp had going in Ohio PA (you know, without actually winning a poll)?

6:46: Elizabeth Warren beats Brown in MA! Ted Kennedy can now quit rolling over and over in his grave and be peacefully dead.

6:49: Donnelly is called for Indiana! It’s good for America when Republicans express their true feelings about women’s reproductive health issues…and religion.

6:57: Oh dear, Mitt Romney loses another home state…New Hampshire.

7:00: It isn’t a total loss for Mitt…they just called Utah for him!

7:02: Romney is up +2% in the popular vote. Somehow I think California will have something to say about that!

7:09: McCaskill is called for Missouri. Have I mentioned how good it is for Americans when Republicans express their true feelings about women’s reproductive health issues…and religion?

7:18: Down goes (not) Joe the (not) Plumber!

7:21: Obama gets New Mexico. Not a surprise, really, unless you are living in the 1990s or something.

7:24: They are getting at the crux of the issue in Florida. Whether Obama or Romney wins, why didn’t Romney WALK AWAY with Florida? The answer: Demography. Republicans rule the demographics that are, for the most part, shrinking.

7:51: Minnesota is called for Obama.

7:57: George Allen has conceded defeat in Virginia!

8:01: Obama gets a big batch of love (and electors) from the West coast: CA, WA, and HI

8:04: (via N in Seatle). We can now say that Paul Ryan’s major contribution to this election is that…it took an extra hour to call Wisconsin. And Wisconsin is called for Barack Obama.

8:06: CNN projects that Democrats will keep control of the Senate. This is a remarkable accomplishment. Over the past couple of years, our right wing trolls have spared no mercy pointing out how the math of hanging on to the Senate just doesn’t work. Shows what they know about math!

8:10: Romney gets North Carolina!

8:10: Obama gets Iowa!!!!

8:15: I hear that NBC has called the ELECTION for Obama.

8:16: In the mean time CNN calls Oregon for Obama.

8:18: And CNN now calls the race for Obama!

8:21: Ohio was called for Obama by PBS CNN and it was that that put him over the top.

8:37: It is hard to get too excited about any of the state or King County races, because King County will only do a single ballot drop tonight.

8:44: On the other hand…now that KC has dropped, Inslee has a pretty hefty lead! Unfortunately the SOS web site is constipated, or I would have some details. DelBene 55% Koster 45%.

8:50: Nevada goes to Obama!

8:53: Back to WA: Inslee 51.7% and McKenna 48.3. Don’t get too excited though. There are many more votes to count, and King County was expected to process more ballots for their Tuesday evening drop than usual.

It’s a party!

Join us tonight for election watching, conversation, and lots and lots of celebration at the 2012 Election Edition of the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our normal starting time is 8:00pm. But for election night, we’ll start at 5:00 pm.

The Alehouse will have TV coverage of the election (with reasonable audio levels). But bring your own radio and headphones/earbuds if you want to concentrate on results—there will be some celebrating and the normal high background noises of a busy pub. Also, there is free WiFi available for streaming, surfing, blogging, tweeting. Whatever. Ask your server for the password.

I’ll be liveblogging the festivities (perhaps with others), so you can always join the party by diving into the cesspool discussion threads.

Can’t make it to Seattle? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. On Tuesday the Tri-Cities chapter meets, and on Thursday Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets.

With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including fourteen in Washington state, four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.

My last post was a bit negative. There will be a results thread at some point, but for now, share your stories of who you voted for and why. Do you like absentee voting or miss going to a polling place?

Good Christ, I’m so glad this election is done tomorrow. I was injured and so I didn’t canvas anywhere, or do much volunteering. I usually feel like I have some control of some down-ballot races by knocking on doors or making phone calls. This time, I’ve given some money, but haven’t been able to feel like I got someone out to the polls or convinced someone by calling them. So it’s just my vote.

Don’t get me wrong, I love writing here. And I think it makes a difference. And I’m glad that y’all have stopped by. But it’s not the same as interacting with people at their door.

Even without that, this election has felt like more of a slog than they often do. Maybe since it started like 10 seconds after Obama took the oath of office. Maybe it’s a fairly negative election. I don’t even have a TV box, so I’ve missed most of the commercials, but the PAC’s and super PAC’s feel like they’re overwhelming the candidates in ways that are even worse than before.

Anyway, all this is to say, I’ll be glad when tomorrow is done. I’ll be gladder if Obama and Inslee win. So please, please, please get those ballots postmarked or dropped off by tomorrow.

– You’re going to vote for the liar. Because he shares your moral values.

– I’m both horrified at the GOP disenfranchisement machine and awed that people are pressing ahead in spite of it.

– It’s not all irrational programing at Fox News?

– Bales himself will not make any statements during the Article 32 hearing. The court proceeding in Tacoma is similar to a pretrial hearing in civilian courts. It’s scheduled to last at least one week.

– A West Seattle man accused of attacking a gay man with a bat while shouting homophobic slurs now faces a hate crime charge.

– This is as good an explanation for the trolls as anything.

There’s a lot of disillusionment with the state of our political system right now. We have two major parties that are largely beholden to powerful economic interests who’ve figured out how to funnel taxpayer money into their own pockets. We have a massive – and largely privatized – military that kills and maims innocent civilians across the globe with almost no oversight. We have the most people living behind bars (by far) of any country in the world, continuing to grow with an immigration crackdown that has continued largely under the radar. And our electorate is largely tuned out, not even able to muster the ability to demand that the two main candidates for president present a clear vision of how to deal with climate change, something that looms as potentially the most dangerous thing we’ll deal with in our lifetimes.

Yet this year, in this state, we got the chance to take two small steps forward. Voter initiatives are often cynical attempts to con voters into voting against their own economic interests. I-502 was a reminder of why they serve a real purpose. It was a genuine effort – decades in the making – to demand that government stop its foolish and wasteful crusade to keep adults from enjoying a recreational drug that’s been used by humans for thousands of years. This Tuesday, we’ll make it official. Marijuana prohibition’s days are numbered. Change is coming.

And Washington is set to become the first state (hopefully with several others on Tuesday) to end marriage discrimination at the ballot box. If only people who were personally affected by either of these initiatives cared, they wouldn’t have a chance. But more and more people are beginning to recognize the value of standing up for the rights of others, even when they involve rights you don’t ever plan to exercise yourself.

Thanks to all the folks in both the I-502 campaign, the R-74 campaign, and everyone who’s worked over the years to bring reform to where we are today. These seem like small steps compared to some of the challenges we face, but these are big victories that can give us the confidence to know that positive change can happen. And as people who’ve fought for years for gay rights and drug law reform can tell you, it’s a long battle with many setbacks. Tuesday can’t come soon enough.

Last week’s contest was won by milwhcky. It was the park in Arvada, CO where the body of Jessica Ridgeway was found.

This week’s contest is a random location somewhere on earth, good luck!

[HA Bible Study is on hiatus through the November election as we honor Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney by studying his Mormon faith.]

Brigham Young, Journal of Discourses 2:182-84
When the Constitution of the United States hangs, as it were, upon a single thread, they will have to call for the “Mormon” Elders to save it from utter destruction; and they will step forth and do it.

Discuss.