by Darryl, 11/07/2012, 8:05 AM

I had to get up way early this morning to take Kathy to SeaTac, and had a few minutes to look at the election results in the gubernatorial race.

As things stood early this morning, Jay Inslee (D) was leading Rob McKenna (R) by 2.6% and a total of 50,209 votes. Of course only a fraction of the vote has been tallied.

To get a quick projection, I used the 2008 turn-out figures for total turnout by county (not turnout by party, just totals for each county). From there, I estimated the remaining votes left to be counted. Then I used the D & R percentages observed in the first ballot night drop to estimate the number of new votes expected for each candidate.

This last step is controversial. After all, we usually observe that later ballots are increasingly D-leaning. But, doing it this way should give us a worse case scenario for Inslee—if past trends hold this election.

What did I find? Inslee still leads at the end of the election, but by only 1.1%, not the healthier 2.6% observed at the end of election day. And, that translates to a 44,000 vote win for Inslee.

So…if the late ballots trend D (typical), Inslee should be in good shape. If they don’t trend at all, Inslee still wins in a squeaker.

However, if they trend R…we might even have to start talking “recount.” And then, may god(s) have mercy on our souls.

57 Responses to “On the WA Gov race”

1. Zotz sez: If You Could Hie To Kolob In The Twinkling Of An Eye... in between the sheets! spews:

Barreto @Washington Poll predicts a 4 point Inslee margin.

The Kochs (et al) and their money were repudiated last night. That is the sweetest victory.

BTW: Fuck you, Bob.

2. rhp6033 spews:

Recount????

Every fibre of my being screams “NOOOOO, NOT AGAIN!!!!!!”

3. Moderate Man spews:

Does that same analysis apply to R-74? It is up by 68K this AM, more than the Inslee lead but not a lot more. It is still in danger of losing should the remaining votes skew Republican?

4. UndercoverBrother spews:

except for 74 & 420…er 502 the state once again disapoints.

glad for the moderate party of america as they are better than the extreme-christianist party but i see more obstruction from HoR and Senant failed to get the 60 votes needed to enact legislation.

if Prez and his donkeys insist on working with the exteme-christianists nothing will get done.

climate change, healthcare, and education all lost in 2012.

Elizabeth Warren 2016 as a GREEN!!!

5. Richard Pope spews:

Looks like Inslee probably has it. I think McKenna might have made it, if he had not signed up for that lawsuit against Obamacare. The worst part of that being going it alone, despite opposition from both the Governor and Legislature. McKenna could end up losing worse than Rossi did in all three of his elections. One can say that it wasn’t a horrible showing by McKenna, but it certainly doesn’t look like a victory either.

6. N in Seattle spews:

Damn, Darryl, you beat me to it. I’m in the midst of a WA-Gov analysis of my own. As you know, I have a history with that sort of thing.

My approach is, I think, somewhat different from yours. I haven’t applied the 2008 turnout figures, though I did want to add that information as well. Instead, I just “believe” what the counties told us as of last night … that, for example, King County will count only 163,000 additional ballots while Cowlitz, Grays Harbor, Pierce, and Spokane have finished counting.

Applying that (totally inaccurate) information to the county-specific percentages for Jay and Rob, I estimate that the current 51.3-48.7 margin will be virtually unchanged in the end, to 51.4-48.6. Of course, this estimate assumes that statewide turnout will come to a mere 62.1% — that’s what you get when you sum {ballots counted} + {ballots on hand}.

I’ll do the same thing tonight, with newer counts and newer to-be-counted estimates. By comparing last night’s totals to tonight’s, I’ll know what will have happened in Wednesday’s counting. We’ll see where it goes…

7. Liberal Scientist is a slut who occasionally wears a hoodie spews:

except for 74 & 420…er 502 the state once again disapoints.

Oh…wouldn’t that have been excellent….Initiative 420?!

8. Hec Ramsey spews:

re 7: …with the law to take effect on April 20th.

9. Roger Rabbit spews:

We may have finally cleaned out the last Republicans from the statewide offices, but that will depend on Drew catching up with Wyman from the remaining King County ballots.

10. rhp6033 spews:

# 5: That’s my take, also. Until the suit against Obamacare, McKenna was able to slip by as a “moderate Republican”, which is the only way a Republican can win statewide office in Washington. But perhaps McKenna felt that by joining the suit, that was the only way he could avoid a significant Tea Party challenge and get access to national party and PAC funding?

Of course, this says a lot about the future of Republicans with regard to statewide offices in Washington State. If a mild-mannered family man like McKenna can’t win, what Republican could win? The demographics in the state work gainst the Republicans, with the central Puget Sound being reliably Democratic and it’s oversize population out-shadowing the Republican eastern Washington.

11. kim jong chillin spews:

Eyeman wins again….this will hopefully keep the state dems in check..

12. Darryl spews:

N in Seattle,

“Damn, Darryl, you beat me to it. I’m in the midst of a WA-Gov analysis of my own.”

Please…feel free to do and front-page your analysis.

I was aiming for something very quickly to help folks get a handle on where the race is headed.

The “ballots on hand” numbers become more useful each day, but I didn’t want to use them for day 1.

13. Mike7777 spews:

Look for labor unions to be the first to challenge the now totally useless urine drug test for cannabis. If it is legal, what the hell good is a test that is basically positive/negative that at some indeterminate time in the past, could be days or weeks ago, you allegedly had cannabis in your system? The absolute fraud of the non-impairment urine test will finally be exposed for the piece of garbage it always has been.

14. Mike7777 spews:

What the fools who supported the 2/3rd rule for raising taxes don’t realize is they in fact just gave all the power to the minority. This crap has destroyed the budget in California.

15. kim jong chillin spews:

@13

Look for backlash from construction industy. Legal or not, your crews will need to be tested prior to being allowed access to a jobsite….many projects already require “drug free” cards.

The unions can piss and moan all they want, but insurance reqs and policies in the name of jobsite safety will always trump what the unions want.

Besides, nobody wants to get sued because some pothead injures or kills somebody on a job site.

16. YLB spews:

Eyeman’s bullshit initiative is unconstitutional and should be thrown out..

Let’s get back to legislators making the tough calls we send them there to make.

17. ArtFart spews:

@15 But of course nobody gives a damn how many workers at the job site got shit-faced drunk the night before.

18. kim jong chillin spews:

@17

You would be mistaken about that…..people are asked to leave jobsites all the time for smelling like booze or appearing to be badly hungover.

Next….

19. Liberal Scientist is a slut who occasionally wears a hoodie spews:

…..people are asked to leave jobsites all the time for smelling like booze or appearing to be badly hungover.

…which would be evidence of real, real-time, potentially dangerous impairment.

A positive urine test resulting from a bong-hit 3 days ago is not functionally the same thing at all.

This is a problem, because people shouldn’t be high at work, particularly when they can do real harm or damage, and quantifying that WRT marijuana use is not at all clear. Lee might weigh in on this, as there was significant contraversy about this among the pro-pot community, and 502′s use of a specific blood THC level to define impairment, and the lack of actual validation of that.

20. Joel spews:

Urine ELISAs are dumb and should be forever discarded.

Assuming that the active THC blood test is accurate, that’s all you ever need. Period.

21. rhp6033 spews:

I’m at work today, recuperating after coming down really sick on Sunday. I’m not on any significant meds, just diuretics and antibiotics.

But I really don’t think I should be operating heavy machinery today. I’ve already made a few stupid mistakes just sitting at my computer. Maybe it’s the lingering fever.

I doubt that a person who smoked pot (or was in a room with others who were smoking pot) several days go would be less impaired than I am right now.

22. Liberal Scientist is a slut who occasionally wears a hoodie spews:

I doubt that a person who smoked pot (or was in a room with others who were smoking pot) several days go would be less impaired than I am right now.

Don’t you mean you don’t think they’d be as impaired, or more impaired?

I think you’re impaired. ;)

23. Tea for everyone spews:

16 Eyeman’s bullshit initiative is unconstitutional and should be thrown out..

Then please tell me why people pass this so called bullshit initiative, every time it is run.

People expect the government to live within it’s means. They are saying it loud and clear with this initiative and the Charter school initiative.

If you can accept only those initaiatives that you believe in, I can’t help that!

24. rhp6033 spews:

# 22: Yep, and you pointed out the evidence in my own words!

I really gotta go home soon. There is no way I’m going to make it to class tonight.

25. Ekim spews:

11. kim jong chillin spews:

Eyeman wins again….this will hopefully keep the state dems in check..

If you can’t raise taxes you sure can redistribute them.

Or more to the point, stop redistributing taxes to the welfare scumbag Rethug counties that take over 2 billion a year from King County. We libs here could get along really well with that extra 2 billion.

Let each county live on the taxes it raises locally. If they run short, they can beg for a hand out. Not demand it as if they are owed it as they do now. Maybe we’ll give them something if they ask real nice.

Time for a new initiative, I say…

26. Liberal Scientist is a slut who occasionally wears a hoodie spews:

@24
Hmmmm…that would be consistent with a philosophy of ‘personal responsibility’, wouldn’t it?

27. Puddybud spews:

Or more to the point, stop redistributing taxes to the welfare scumbag Rethug counties that take over 2 billion a year from King County. We libs here could get along really well with that extra 2 billion.

Hmmm, yeah let those counties sell all their food produced there to other states or the world and watch Seattle food prices skyrocket. Nearly $13 billion in food and agricultural products were exported through Washington ports in 2010, the third largest total in the U.S.

No more
Apples $1.44 (billion)
Wheat $ 925
Potatoes 2 $ 654
Hay $ 509
Cherries $ 367
Grapes $ 214
Pears $ 189

Let those counties keep all their revenue. No problem with Puddy.

ekim – four letter acronym for really stupid!

28. Rob spews:

Puddles,

what law is forcing the east side growers to sell to Seattle?

29. Puddybud spews:

Sorry wrong thread!

30. Puddybud spews:

rob, What are you babbling about?

Sheesh!

31. Liberal Scientist is a slut who occasionally wears a hoodie spews:

@26
You really are quite stupid.

Please explain how that massive hay export is consumed in Seattle?

What sort of commodity trading system to you imagine we’re using these days? You really think that the commodity producers could keep their production from going to Seattle, volitionally, and thereby driving up prices?

Moreover, you seem to be suggesting that transfers of state tax revenues from King to other counties is somehow related to the production and export of agricultural commodities. That somehow that massive transfer of wealth (from Seattle ‘producers’ to rural ‘takers’) is tied to congruent transfers of food commodities. You really believe that?

32. Liberal Scientist is a slut who occasionally wears a hoodie spews:

29. Puddybud spews:

rob, What are you babbling about?

Sheesh!

Yup, the puddl M.O. – say something profoundly stupid/offensive/crazy, and then pretend you don’t know what someone is taling about when they call you on it.

Doesn’t lying make Baby Jeebus cry, puddl?

33. Puddybud spews:

massive hay export is consumed in Seattle?

Hay feeds the cattle, sheep, etc. in that is slaughtered for Seattle grocery stores. Apparently the circle of life was lost on dunceman!

Let those counties see if their ag products products being exported directly out of the state can bring in more revenue than being sold in King, Sonhomish, and Pierce. If that’s the case then they keep their ag revenue direct to their counties. Hence King County keeps their $2Billion for themselves and the state doesn’t need to perform revenue transfers.

34. Puddybud spews:

Yup, the puddl M.O. – say something profoundly stupid/offensive/crazy, and then pretend you don’t know what someone is taling about when they call you on it.

dunceman m.o. jump onto something and vicariously trump up how great and wonderful he isn’t!

35. Liberal Scientist is a slut who occasionally wears a hoodie spews:

@32
You really don’t understand how commodity markets work, do you puddl?

I’ll leave it at that – you don’t need my help digging your hole deeper. You’re doing fine all by your self.

36. Liberal Scientist is a slut who occasionally wears a hoodie spews:

@33

dunceman m.o. jump onto something and vicariously trump up how great and wonderful he isn’t!

I didn’t say a word about myself, puddl. You don’t understand the meaning of ‘vicarious’, do you?

*snicker*

37. Puddybud spews:

I didn’t say a word about myself, puddl.

Uhhh yes you did moron… Let’s review

Yup, the puddl M.O. – say something profoundly stupid/offensive/crazy, and then pretend you don’t know what someone is taling about when they call you on it.

That’s your mouth talking dude… not rob…

Apparently your EPIC FAYLE of the Webster’s dictionary is front and center like other crap from your “mind”.

NUFF SAID Sucka!

38. Liberal Scientist is a slut who occasionally wears a hoodie spews:

@36
Duh. Yes, puddl (speaking s-l-o-w-l-y), I did write that. And in doing, said not a word, made not a reference to myself.

I guess that’s difficult to grasp for you – after all, earlier today ylb let us know that the most often used word in your posts is….’puddy’.

Now, could you explain to us all how commodity markets work, and precisely how stopping the flow of tax revenues from Seattle to eastern Washington will cause Seattle grocery prices to rise.

I’m all ears.

39. Ekim spews:

The ButtPounder has a really poor grasp of farming economics.

The Eastern Washington agri-businesses right now sell to whoever gives them the best price. (Think ConAgra Foods. That is the big player over there.) And we are subsidizing their costs and maximizing their profits. Profits that then go to their out of state stock holders.

40. Ekim spews:

I’m also very sure that Eastern Washington would not stop selling to us in a fit of pique and thus loose themselves a near by market for their products.

41. Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

@39, 40
One very stupid motherfucker, that puddl.

42. Rob spews:

The ButtPounder has a really poor grasp of…

Is there anything he has has a good grasp of? I’ve yet to see it.

43. N in Seattle spews:

@38:

Now, could you explain to us all how commodity markets work, and precisely how stopping the flow of tax revenues from Seattle to eastern Washington will cause Seattle grocery prices to rise.

While he’s at it, I want to hear his explanation of how the EW farmers are going to export their products without shipping them through the Port of Seattle or Tacoma or Everett or Bellingham or …

44. expatchad spews:

42. Rob spews:
The ButtPounder has a really poor grasp of…

Is there anything he has has a good grasp of? I’ve yet to see it.

His DICK perhaps, and I doubt that you want to…..

45. Ekim spews:

The ButtPounder certainly doesn’t have a grip on his BALLS.
He doesn’t have any because he’s been neutered.

46. YLB spews:

Then please tell me why people pass this so called bullshit initiative, every time it is run.

Heh. Why should I explain it to you – a birther?

It’d go in one ear and out the other.

How’d that owebama bullshit work out for you?

47. Puddybud spews:

Not a reference to dunceman’s self

Yup, the puddl M.O.

Then how do you claim to know my M.O. without referring to yourself? Did someone else claim that’s Puddy’s M.O.? Nope you did. You made the reference to yourself.

See ya! Puddy knows you’ll be back. I’ll be asleep!

48. Puddybud spews:

Puddy mentions exports and ekim synonymous for goatsex mentions ConAgra Foods. Strange… Puddy went to goatsex’s link and there is no mention of exports there.

49. Puddybud spews:

Commodities, who’s talking about trading commodities dunceman?

50. Puddybud spews:

Port of Seattle, Everett, Tacoma, all part of the King Snohomish and Pierce leftist land. Free shipping through port so no transfer of wealth as you libtards scream.

Will exports bring in more revenue than selling to libtards in libtard land? Don’t know unless evaluated.

51. Puddybud spews:

Regarding hay… notice how dunceman didn’t understand the circle of life? dunceman changed the subject quick!

Damn funny that “dr dunceman”.

52. Piltdown Man spews:

25. Ekim spews:
11. kim jong chillin spews:

Eyeman wins again….this will hopefully keep the state dems in check..

If you can’t raise taxes you sure can redistribute them.

Or more to the point, stop redistributing taxes to the welfare scumbag Rethug counties that take over 2 billion a year from King County. We libs here could get along really well with that extra 2 billion.

Let each county live on the taxes it raises locally. If they run short, they can beg for a hand out. Not demand it as if they are owed it as they do now. Maybe we’ll give them something if they ask real nice.

Time for a new initiative, I say…

11/07/2012 AT 4:50 PM

Hey – I am all for it! But lets take it a few steps more: If you dont like wealthier counties paying for poorer ones, then why should wealthier people pay for poor ones?

same logic – I like it! sign me up! I will no longer have to pay for deathfrogg, YLB and rujaxoff! you are on your own bitches!

ekim and max finally agree!

53. YLB spews:

I will no longer have to pay for all these Republicans

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-05/republican-heavy-counties-eat-up-most-food-stamp-growth.html

The asshat wet dream.

54. Piltdown Man spews:

If they run short, they can beg for a hand out. Not demand it as if they are owed it as they do now

hMMM….sounds very similar to your typical OWSer obama supporter looking for “free stuff” to me.

Yes ekim I agree! no more supporting the white trash degenerate meth-heads or the lazy fucks living in the inner city projects….they have sucked up enough money…

all of the sudden I like ekim and how he thinks.

55. Ekim spews:

48. GoatBoy spews:
ekim synonymous for goatsex

Help! ButtPounder thinks I’m a goat and he wants my goodies!

56. Ekim spews:

48. GoatBoy spews:
ButtPounder went to Ekim’s link and there is no mention of exports there.

ButtCandy is surprised that a link about ConAgra is about (wait for it…) ConAgra. Why am I not surprised?

Maybe this link to the WSDA International Marketing Program will help you.

57. Ekim spews:

50. DumbShit ButtPounder spews:
Will exports bring in more revenue than selling to libtards in libtard land? Don’t know unless evaluated.

Earth to GoatBoy: It has already been evaluated. You don’t build an 8 billion dollar industry without knowing your markets.