| Obama | Romney |
| 98.8% probability of winning | 1.2% probability of winning |
| Mean of 309 electoral votes | Mean of 229 electoral votes |
Another day, 26 new polls, and we are still at the same place. President Barack Obama is still leading Governor Mitt Romney by 309 to 229 electoral votes (on average).
I’ll have one more update tomorrow, early afternoon—before any election polls close. Here is today’s batch:
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| CO | PPP | 03-Nov | 04-Nov | 1096 | 3.0 | 52 | 46 | O+6 |
| CO | Keating | 02-Nov | 04-Nov | 603 | 4.0 | 50 | 46 | O+4 |
| CO | Lake | 31-Oct | 04-Nov | 400 | 5.0 | 45 | 44 | O+1 |
| FL | Gravis | 04-Nov | 05-Nov | 1060 | 3.1 | 49 | 49 | tie |
| FL | Insider Advantage | 04-Nov | 04-Nov | 437 | 4.6 | 47 | 52 | R+5 |
| FL | PPP | 03-Nov | 04-Nov | 955 | 3.2 | 50 | 49 | O+1 |
| FL | Mellman | 30-Oct | 02-Nov | 800 | 3.4 | 47 | 45 | O+2 |
| IA | ARG | 02-Nov | 04-Nov | 600 | 4.0 | 48 | 49 | R+1 |
| MI | Mitchell | 04-Nov | 04-Nov | 1305 | 2.7 | 51 | 46 | O+5 |
| MO | SurveyUSA | 28-Oct | 03-Nov | 589 | 4.1 | 43.1 | 49.9 | R+6.8 |
| NV | PPP | 03-Nov | 04-Nov | 750 | 3.6 | 51 | 47 | O+4 |
| NH | Rasmussen | 04-Nov | 04-Nov | 750 | 4.0 | 50 | 48 | O+2 |
| NH | New England Collage | 03-Nov | 04-Nov | 687 | 3.7 | 50 | 46 | O+4 |
| NH | ARG | 02-Nov | 04-Nov | 600 | 4.0 | 49 | 49 | tie |
| NH | U NH | 01-Nov | 04-Nov | 789 | 3.5 | 51 | 48 | O+3 |
| NC | Gravis | 04-Nov | 04-Nov | 1130 | 2.9 | 46 | 50 | R+4 |
| NC | PPP | 03-Nov | 04-Nov | 926 | 3.2 | 49 | 49 | tie |
| OH | Gravis Marketing | 04-Nov | 05-Nov | 1316 | 2.7 | 49 | 48 | O+1 |
| OH | Rasmussen | 04-Nov | 04-Nov | 750 | 4.0 | 49 | 49 | tie |
| OH | SurveyUSA | 01-Nov | 04-Nov | 803 | 3.5 | 48.8 | 44.3 | O+4.5 |
| OH | Ohio Poll | 31-Oct | 04-Nov | 889 | 3.3 | 50.0 | 48.5 | O+1.5 |
| PA | Gravis Marketing | 04-Nov | 04-Nov | 1060 | 3.0 | 49 | 46 | O+3 |
| SD | Neilson Brothers | 31-Oct | 04-Nov | 633 | 4.0 | 41 | 53 | R+12 |
| VA | Rasmussen | 04-Nov | 04-Nov | 750 | 4.0 | 48 | 50 | R+2 |
| VA | Marist | 01-Nov | 02-Nov | 1165 | 2.9 | 48 | 47 | O+1 |
| VA | Mellman | 30-Oct | 02-Nov | 800 | 3.4 | 48 | 45 | O+3 |
Colorado gives three new poll leads to Obama. Obama takes 6 of 7 current polls and has a probability of winning the state of 94%.
We get four new Florida polls. One goes to Romney, two to Obama and the last is a tie. Romney has the edge among the 9 current polls, as he is up +0.8%. That translates into a 69% probability of Romney winning the state. Here is the past couple of months of polling:
Another Iowa puts Romney over Obama, by a slim +1%. Even so, Obama takes six of the eight polls collected over the past week, and it earns him a 90% probability of winning the state now.
In Michigan, Obama polls at +5%. The verdict of the 5 current polls is that Obama will take the state with a 95% probability.
Nevada gives Obama a +4% poll. Combined with the other current poll Obama takes the state 90% of the simulated elections.
A flurry of four New Hampshire polls today mostly gives Obama small leads. There is one tie, however. This brings us to 8 polls taken in the past week for the granite state. Two of them are ties, but Obama leads in the rest by small margins. The analysis gives Obama a 91% probability of winning the state.
Two North Carolina polls go +4% Romney and tie. The third current poll is also a tie. Together Romney has a narrow advantage, and a 72% chance of winning the state.
Four new Ohio polls today. One is a tie, and three give Obama tiny leads. But we now have 12 (count em!) polls collected in the past week. Two are ties, but Obama leads in the remaining 10. The provide evidence that Obama will take the state with a 98% probability.
The only Pennsylvania poll supports Obama over Romney by +3%. We only have 5 current polls and, aside from one tie, Obama leads ’em. He gets a 91% probability out of it.
Three new Virginia polls split 2:1 in favor of Obama. Now with six current polls, Obama takes all but one from today. He holds a +1.4% edge and seems to have a 78% chance of taking the state. This is worth a picture:
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 98,814 times and Romney wins 1,186 times (including the 152 ties). Obama received (on average) 309 to Romney’s 229 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 98.8% (+0.5%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 1.2% (+0.5%) probability of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 05 Nov 2011 to 05 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama (full distribution here):
- 303 electoral votes with a 12.10% probability
- 332 electoral votes with a 4.89% probability
- 318 electoral votes with a 4.39% probability
- 290 electoral votes with a 3.77% probability
- 319 electoral votes with a 3.62% probability
- 304 electoral votes with a 3.61% probability
- 297 electoral votes with a 2.98% probability
- 302 electoral votes with a 2.59% probability
- 299 electoral votes with a 2.27% probability
- 312 electoral votes with a 2.24% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 98.8%, Romney wins 1.2%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 309.1 (18.6)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 228.9 (18.6)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 304 (274, 347)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 234 (191, 264)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 154 | |||
| Strong Obama | 122 | 276 | ||
| Leans Obama | 27 | 27 | 303 | |
| Weak Obama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 303 |
| Weak Romney | 0 | 0 | 0 | 235 |
| Leans Romney | 46 | 46 | 235 | |
| Strong Romney | 132 | 189 | ||
| Safe Romney | 57 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 0 | 0 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 4 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | Romney | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1* | 404 | 39.6 | 60.4 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| AK | 3 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| AZ | 11 | 1 | 1069 | 46.5 | 53.5 | 5.4 | 94.6 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1* | 571 | 34.9 | 65.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 3* | 2986 | 57.3 | 42.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 7 | 5374 | 51.5 | 48.5 | 93.8 | 6.2 | ||
| CT | 7 | 1 | 1183 | 56.7 | 43.3 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| DE | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| DC | 3 | 1* | 1173 | 91.6 | 8.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| FL | 29 | 9 | 8046 | 49.6 | 50.4 | 31.4 | 68.6 | ||
| GA | 16 | 1 | 1276 | 46.4 | 53.6 | 3.0 | 97.0 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 1157 | 64.2 | 35.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 1* | 563 | 30.0 | 70.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| IL | 20 | 1 | 1174 | 58.2 | 41.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| IN | 11 | 2 | 1306 | 44.9 | 55.1 | 0.3 | 99.7 | ||
| IA | 6 | 8 | 5990 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 89.5 | 10.5 | ||
| KS | 6 | 2* | 1143 | 39.4 | 60.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| KY | 8 | 1* | 557 | 42.4 | 57.6 | 0.4 | 99.6 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1* | 2548 | 37.9 | 62.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| ME | 2 | 2 | 2141 | 56.0 | 44.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 1 | 801 | 60.2 | 39.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 2 | 1284 | 52.2 | 47.8 | 87.0 | 13.0 | ||
| MD | 10 | 2* | 1538 | 61.6 | 38.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MA | 11 | 4 | 3060 | 58.6 | 41.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 5 | 4920 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 95.4 | 4.6 | ||
| MN | 10 | 3 | 1952 | 54.4 | 45.6 | 99.8 | 0.2 | ||
| MS | 6 | 2* | 1420 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MO | 10 | 3 | 2536 | 45.1 | 54.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MT | 3 | 3 | 1891 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| NE | 2 | 1 | 1119 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| NE1 | 1 | 1* | 389 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 10.1 | 89.9 | ||
| NE2 | 1 | 1* | 646 | 47.4 | 52.6 | 17.2 | 82.8 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 1* | 284 | 35.9 | 64.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| NV | 6 | 2 | 1298 | 52.5 | 47.5 | 90.0 | 10.0 | ||
| NH | 4 | 8 | 6212 | 51.2 | 48.8 | 90.7 | 9.3 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 5* | 3773 | 55.6 | 44.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NM | 5 | 2* | 1307 | 54.8 | 45.2 | 99.3 | 0.7 | ||
| NY | 29 | 3* | 1770 | 63.8 | 36.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 3 | 2709 | 49.2 | 50.8 | 28.0 | 72.0 | ||
| ND | 3 | 4* | 2563 | 42.6 | 57.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OH | 18 | 12 | 11629 | 51.5 | 48.5 | 98.4 | 1.6 | ||
| OK | 7 | 1* | 279 | 35.8 | 64.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OR | 7 | 1 | 903 | 53.0 | 47.0 | 89.6 | 10.4 | ||
| PA | 20 | 5 | 3892 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 91.4 | 8.6 | ||
| RI | 4 | 1* | 523 | 62.1 | 37.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| SC | 9 | 3* | 4199 | 48.2 | 51.8 | 4.7 | 95.3 | ||
| SD | 3 | 2 | 1178 | 44.7 | 55.3 | 0.4 | 99.6 | ||
| TN | 11 | 1* | 566 | 36.6 | 63.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| TX | 38 | 1* | 752 | 41.5 | 58.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| UT | 6 | 2 | 1420 | 26.9 | 73.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1* | 415 | 71.3 | 28.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 6 | 5538 | 50.7 | 49.3 | 77.5 | 22.5 | ||
| WA | 12 | 2 | 1445 | 54.9 | 45.1 | 99.7 | 0.3 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1* | 361 | 42.1 | 57.9 | 1.7 | 98.3 | ||
| WI | 10 | 5 | 4916 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 95.7 | 4.3 | ||
| WY | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
We now have the first polls that actually count:
Dixville Notch, NH, recorded its first-ever tie in presidentil balloting — Romney 5, Obama 5. Dixville Notch is not a bellwether; the town leans Republican (3 registered Republicans, 2 registered Democrats, and 5 registered independents).
In the other New Hampshire town with first-in-nation midnight voting, Hart’s Location, Obama whupped Romney 23-9.
So, in the very first tabulation of actual votes, Obama leads Romney by 28 to 14 — almost exactly the odds split on Intrade.
I saw Dixville Notch on CNN, turned the channel when Piers Morgan went back to the scheduled guest, so I missed Hart’s Addition. I like the way that works, I think the West Wing combined the two towns for a fictional town of Hartsfield Landing. I loved the way that episode ended, by the way.
Okay, we get 50.88% Obama and 49.12% Romney with the weighted state polling averages applied to the 2008 turnout, at the two-candidate level. This compares with 50.46% Obama and 49.54% Romney using the weighted average of the RCP national polls. Pretty close between the two measures.
So probably in about 24 hours, enough of the really close states will be called, and Obama will be proclaimed the victor for another 4 years, with very little change in the makeup of Congress.
I am beginning to wonder if the punditry class, on all sides, is only in it for the ratings. Earlier this year, they were saying that the Senate would not even be close. Several toss ups, a couple ill-timed, and ill-advised comments, and races written off become competitive, like Indiana and Missouri. I noticed those outside groups that went after Murray in 2010 did not show up here much.
The name of the other midnight voting town is Hart’s Location, not Hart’s Addition, sorry about that.
So what excuses/conspiracy theories will Fuck’s Noise come up with tonight?
Of course thats all they are in it for….and their tools, like YLB and a host of others here, are the ones who supply them with the viewership.
@3 “Obama will be proclaimed the victor for another 4 years, with very little change in the makeup of Congress.”
Which will be a defeat for the GOP and a rejection of their strategy of obstruction and stonewalling.
You’d think they would have learned in 2006 and 2008, but unfortunately Republicans are unteachable.
@7 Speaking of tools, you should talk, you’ve never had an original thought of your own.
I heard about this yesterday….here’s the actual text.
That sniveling little weasel Josh Mandel, corrupt, anti-gay, and a paragon of right wing ‘virtue’ who is running against Sherrod Brown for Senate from Ohio…had an ad taken out against him…BY HIS FAMILY!!
Signed by nine of his cousins, they decry is bigoted anti-gay positions, noting in particular that one of his (female) cousins is married to another woman, and that the in-law is a graduate of the Air Force Academy and an accomplished pilot who served her country in the military.
One wonders what mental and emotional gymnastics a little creep like Mandel goes through to maintain the positions he does…is it really heartfelt, or just a cynical decision that the road to power goes through the right-wing fever swamp?
@9
Weak
Here’s Rush Limbaugh letting everyone know how he feels….
“Moochelle Obama” is campaigning in North Carolina with “NBA players” to get out the “black base” for “Barack Hussein Obama”
Translation: “BLACK MOOCHER BLACK BLACK MOOCHER BLACK BLACK BLACK BLACK!!”
These people are vile.
WHAT’S THIS!!!
TELEPROMPTERS??!!!
What will Sarah Palin say?
I suppose it’s one more piece of evidence that Mitt failed conservatism, rather than the other way around.
100 bet on President Obama pays 20, 100 bet on Mitt pays 450.
http://www.oddschecker.com/spe.....ion/winner
@11
Weak minded
Greg @ 14
Like I said, you can make money by buying Obama on InTrade and betting Romney with a bookmaker.
Wow…Chris Mathews, yesterday…
Check out the whole thing, it’s quite powerful and moving.
Early indications are that the GOTV vote in OH didn’t exactly go the way Team Obama has been telling everybody it would go:
Josh Kraushaar@HotlineJosh
Overall, early vote turnout OH up 2.44% in state. Down -4.1% in Obama/Kerry counties; up 14.39% in Bush/McCain counties.
Dave Wasserman@Redistrict
By my calc, in ’08, 24.8% of registered voters in Obama’s OH counties voted early, 19.1% in McCain. Today, 21.7% Obama and 21.3% McCain
That’s OK. I’m sure Team Obama is planning a massive Election Day turnout in OH, just like the Dems always do on Election Day.
Right?
@15
Buffoon would work, in this case.
Gannett News service site in Cincy:
http://news.cincinnati.com/art.....ck_check=1
If this is accurate (note the bold there), Team Obama’s GOTV has failed.
697K early OH votes by Romney primary voters, 605K by Obama primary voters.
If.
@18
Wow, spiking the ball on the 40th…again.
Moreover, your numbers, if true, may well reflect systematic change engineered by Husted and the other Republicans in the Ohio government to limit access to voting.
How do you countenance that? Does your self interest and greed trump democracy, trump others’ access to the vote?
I’ve wondered that about my Republican friends….even if you’re the most well meaning conservative, or honestly motivated by their agenda – how do you live with the widespread, systematic efforts to keep some people – usually black, brown, poor or some combination thereof – keep them from even voting? How do you live with that?
@17
“Shiver up my leg!”
Lmfao….tool shed.
@21
Moreover, your numbers, if true, may well reflect systematic change engineered by Husted and the other Republicans in the Ohio government to limit access to voting.
Yeah. Next election, maybe Dem sloths should have 60 days to vote instead of 30, and 12 hours per day instead of 10.
Clearly, you’re not ready for The Pain.
Wouldn’t it be hysterically apt and ironic if Willard got 47% of the popular vote?
@24
Wouldn’t it be hysterically apt and ironic if Willard got 47% of the popular vote?
Actually, he might. In New Yawk City.
@22
I believe he also waxed poetic about Commander Codpiece…that doesn’t make him wrong now…just makes you look like a dimwit.
@23
So it’s laziness? Is that your argument?
Perhaps you’re showing your true colors again.
@23
But really, having longer hours and more days for early voting allows more people to vote.
Is that bad? Why? How do you defend measures to limit the number of people who vote?
What is the first HA clue that the election will go for Romney?
Roger Rabbit expects us to ignore the premise of his 100,000+ previous posts.
In fact, it is my opinion this election was Romney’s to lose
http://horsesass.org/?p=47559#comment-1198520
RR’s ready for The Pain. He’s sent about 2/3 of HA content down his own little Memory Burrow.
From a Rmoney adviser, quoted in the National Review Online…
@ 28
But really, having longer hours and more days for early voting allows more people to vote.
Is that bad? Why? How do you defend measures to limit the number of people who vote?
I don’t dispute that, Lib Sci. I would counter on two points:
1. Law of Diminishing Returns.
2. People are promised free and fair elections, not perfect ones.
Should we be open at the polls 24/7 for 60 days straight, with PSAs every 5 minutes? ’cause that might turn out some extra voters.
I think that early voting in OH has been substantial and when you look at the per-day votes, it began to decline more than a week ago (I have not seen data over the past three days).
There is no early voting in PA. Look at what is happening in Philly right now.
A better argument for you, Lib Sci, would be to not dig deeper into the bottom of the barrel in OH, but to dig into the middle of the barrel in PA. My thought, FWIW.
@29
You should use the complete quote…
You know, Romney, they guy who couldn’t put away the Moosum Kenyan Socialist Atheist America-Hating sleeper-agent.
@ 20
from Gannett:
A Cincinnati.com front-page link to a chart with dummy data, created as a design template for election results, was inadvertently posted early Tuesday morning.
It purported to show early voting totals in Ohio counties. However, no votes have been counted yet – by law counting doesn’t start until the polls close.
Cincinnati.com regrets the error.
The one thing I’ll point out is that they didn’t say the data in their chart was incorrect.
@ 32
Search your memory for one little HA snippet prior to last night in which RR gave Romney the election unless Romney fumbled it.
Just one.
@31
Your bobbing and weaving is revealing.
Husted and Kasich in Ohio, Rick Scott in Florida, Gessler in Colorado…every one of them a Republican, have limited early voting hours, closed polling places, limited resources, reduced access to voting, tried to limit mailed ballots – all aimed at limiting efforts to maximize peoples’ access to the vote.
You deliberately obfuscate with drivel like this…
And this tells me you see this only in partisan terms, from a perspective of winning elections…
It appears to completely elude you that this is about maximizing citizens’ participation in their democracy, and government actions to either foster that, or to hinder it. Your side has chosen the latter, and made every effort to make sure people who tend to vote Democratic not have access.
You pretend that early voting hours and locations and other means to expand the vote are not limiting factors, and that squeezing them does not have a disenfranchising effect – your argument is as transparent as it is weak.
I suppose I didn’t really expect anything else from you.
@33
You really are an imbecile. You’re inability not to make the snide, ball-spiking comment really trips you up.
@35
And this tells me you see this only in partisan terms, from a perspective of winning elections…
Er, I thought I made a suggestion to start early voting in PA and probably unlock hundreds of thousands of additional votes in that state, rather than to further kiss the asses of the reluctant voters in OH in hopes of gaining a few hundred additional votes there.
I guess I was just being partisan, when actually I thought that from a numerical perspective, it made sense.
Blood, turnip in OH, Lib Sci. Of course, you’ve always been much more willing to kiss ass than I have, at least when Darryl’s around.
@ 36
We’ll find out tonite.
Busy day today. I’ll be humming tunes. Lib Sci will be spending it having catarrhal spurts.
Republican David Frum…
I suppose Diogenes can now rest.
How do Republicans wear the term ‘patriot’ so gaudily, and at the same time work so tirelessly to undermine our democracy?
Kap’n Kornflake – Stoopid to the last drop!
First, thank-you for taking my wager and thus donating $1,000 to Northwest Harvest. I can say with absolute certitude that this was the best thing that has come from Slick Willard’s 7 year losing quest to massage his own ego.
Second, it is of little importance to me personally in the scheme of all that will happen today, but I will be so happy at the end of the evening when facts prove you so absolutely wrong and stoopid.
I am hoping that YLB can do a query to let us know how many days and how many comments you have stoopidly made during this election cycle.
As a native of western PA I can assert with absolute certainty the Gekko/Galt PA gambit is laughable.
Lastly, by my count Obama wins 303 to 235. And I think Obama/Biden may do a tad better if the Republicans don’t steal Florida.
@ 40
Thanks to you as well, MBS. Enjoyed the reports from CO.
Poll closing times:
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ti.....ction.html
Keep in mind Intrade and the Betting Orgs only relect those who gamble on this election, many of whom rely on the polls in deciding who to bet for. If they read Darryl’s analysis, they ought to push all their chips in for Obama. The problem is all are relying on polls with a variety of assumptions. If Romney wins, Darryl will say he wasn’t predicting, just reflecting the polls he used. I’ve got private bets risking $2,000 with the potential of winning $8,125. Different odds on bets.
10) I have heard of the cousin of Mandell that they were talking about. Ellen Ratner, a bureau chief with the Talk Radio News Service. Pretty nice lady, and despite her sometimes partisan bent, she did do one thing interesting. During the primaries, she asked the Liberal hosts that carry TRNS updates, to not be too hard on Bachman, because although they disagree, they have gotten along.