|98.8% probability of winning||1.2% probability of winning|
|Mean of 309 electoral votes||Mean of 229 electoral votes|
Another day, 26 new polls, and we are still at the same place. President Barack Obama is still leading Governor Mitt Romney by 309 to 229 electoral votes (on average).
I’ll have one more update tomorrow, early afternoon—before any election polls close. Here is today’s batch:
|NH||New England Collage||03-Nov||04-Nov||687||3.7||50||46||O+4|
Colorado gives three new poll leads to Obama. Obama takes 6 of 7 current polls and has a probability of winning the state of 94%.
We get four new Florida polls. One goes to Romney, two to Obama and the last is a tie. Romney has the edge among the 9 current polls, as he is up +0.8%. That translates into a 69% probability of Romney winning the state. Here is the past couple of months of polling:
Another Iowa puts Romney over Obama, by a slim +1%. Even so, Obama takes six of the eight polls collected over the past week, and it earns him a 90% probability of winning the state now.
In Michigan, Obama polls at +5%. The verdict of the 5 current polls is that Obama will take the state with a 95% probability.
Nevada gives Obama a +4% poll. Combined with the other current poll Obama takes the state 90% of the simulated elections.
A flurry of four New Hampshire polls today mostly gives Obama small leads. There is one tie, however. This brings us to 8 polls taken in the past week for the granite state. Two of them are ties, but Obama leads in the rest by small margins. The analysis gives Obama a 91% probability of winning the state.
Two North Carolina polls go +4% Romney and tie. The third current poll is also a tie. Together Romney has a narrow advantage, and a 72% chance of winning the state.
Four new Ohio polls today. One is a tie, and three give Obama tiny leads. But we now have 12 (count em!) polls collected in the past week. Two are ties, but Obama leads in the remaining 10. The provide evidence that Obama will take the state with a 98% probability.
The only Pennsylvania poll supports Obama over Romney by +3%. We only have 5 current polls and, aside from one tie, Obama leads ‘em. He gets a 91% probability out of it.
Three new Virginia polls split 2:1 in favor of Obama. Now with six current polls, Obama takes all but one from today. He holds a +1.4% edge and seems to have a 78% chance of taking the state. This is worth a picture:
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 98,814 times and Romney wins 1,186 times (including the 152 ties). Obama received (on average) 309 to Romney’s 229 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 98.8% (+0.5%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 1.2% (+0.5%) probability of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 05 Nov 2011 to 05 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama (full distribution here):
- 303 electoral votes with a 12.10% probability
- 332 electoral votes with a 4.89% probability
- 318 electoral votes with a 4.39% probability
- 290 electoral votes with a 3.77% probability
- 319 electoral votes with a 3.62% probability
- 304 electoral votes with a 3.61% probability
- 297 electoral votes with a 2.98% probability
- 302 electoral votes with a 2.59% probability
- 299 electoral votes with a 2.27% probability
- 312 electoral votes with a 2.24% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 98.8%, Romney wins 1.2%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 309.1 (18.6)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 228.9 (18.6)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 304 (274, 347)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 234 (191, 264)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|8||4||Votes||polls||Votes||Obama||Romney||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.