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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Roll Call: Government shutdown looms.

Stephen with Michelle Obama: Imitating Barack.

Keith Olbermann interviews Press Sec. Josh Earnest on the debate and the stakes of the race: PART I and PART II.

Kimmel on presidential debate topics.

The 2016 Racist, Sexist, Homophobic, All-Around-Great-Hater Clown Show:

Adam Ruins Everything: Trophy hunting can be good for animals?

Samantha Bee: Chief Executive fear mongerer: PART I and PART II

Kimmel: Unnecessary Censorship—Obama Edition.

Stephen with Michelle Obama on political spouses.

Hillary Makes History:

Secret Service won’t let Stephen see FLOTUS.

Thom: Open source voting explained.

Samantha Bee: The week in HUH? Super delegate-lobbyists.

Susie Sampson: Picking between gays and Muslims.

Mel Brooks pranks Obama.

Thom: Here’s who’s being eliminated from the voter roles.

Mental Floss: 31 weird discontinued products.

John Oliver: The refugee crisis.

Sam Seder: OMG! Christie knew about Bridgegate.

This Week in Cops Killing Black People:

White House: West Wing Week.

Jimmy Dore: Reince Priebus worn out after months of turd-polishing:

Sam Seder: NC Rep. says Charlotte protesters “Hate White people because White people are successful & they’re not”.

Taco Truck Guy on typical Mexicans.

Bill Maher with a New Rule: Bring civility back to politics.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Poll Analysis: Senate still red, but Democrats chip away

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Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
29.5% prob. of a majority
70.5% prob. of a majority
Mean of 49 seats
Mean of 51 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The Democrats would still be unlikely to take the Senate in an election held today. Nevertheless the Republicans have lost ground since the previous analysis. Ten days ago Democrats had an 11.8% chance of taking the Senate. Today their chances are nearly 30%.

After 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 4934 times, there were 24613 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 70453 times. Democrats have a 29.5% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 70.5% probability of controlling the Senate. This analysis assumes that the Vice President will be a Democrat.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*

  • 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 29.5%, Republicans control the Senate 70.5%.
  • Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 49.0 ( 1.0)
  • Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 51.0 ( 1.0)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 49 (47, 51)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 51 (49, 53)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

  • Democratic seats w/no election: 35
  • Independent seats w/no election: one
  • Republican seats w/no election: 30
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: nine
  • Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 20
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
  • Contested Republican seats likely to switch: four

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Democrat 43
Strong Democrat 3 46
Leans Democrat 3 3 49
Weak Democrat 0 0 0 49
Weak Republican 1 1 1 51
Leans Republican 0 0 50
Strong Republican 7 50
Safe Republican 43

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

# Sample % % Dem Rep/th>
State @ polls size Dem Rep % wins % wins
AL 0 0 (0) (100)
AK 0 0 (0) (100)
AZ 2 1389 45.2 54.8 0.5 99.5
AR 2 1142 36.9 63.1 0.0 100.0
CA 3 1966 62.8 37.2 100.0 0.0
CO 3 1377 55.0 45.0 99.5 0.5
CT 1 872 61.7 38.3 100.0 0.0
FL 8 4619 46.6 53.4 0.0 100.0
GA 6 2849 40.5 59.5 0.0 100.0
HI 0 0 (100) (0)
ID 0 0 (0) (100)
IL 2 1023 52.0 48.0 81.1 18.9
IN 1 504 52.4 47.6 77.2 22.8
IA 4 2294 44.4 55.6 0.0 100.0
KS 1 495 40.4 59.6 0.2 99.8
KY 1& 440 43.2 56.8 2.1 97.9
LA 1 794 34.6 65.4 0.0 100.0
MD 2 1019 68.6 31.4 100.0 0.0
MO 3 2530 47.2 52.8 2.6 97.4
NV 5 2843 48.3 51.7 9.3 90.7
NH 6 3450 49.8 50.2 43.5 56.5
NY 1 671 72.1 27.9 100.0 0.0
NC 9 6027 48.8 51.2 9.0 91.0
ND 0 0 (0) (100)
OH 7 4656 42.0 58.0 0.0 100.0
OK 0 0 (0) (100)
OR 1 403 55.1 44.9 92.5 7.5
PA 7 4143 50.8 49.2 78.3 21.7
SC 1& 941 38.4 61.6 0.0 100.0
SD 0 0 (0) (100)
UT 1& 678 27.9 72.1 0.0 100.0
VT 1 544 62.3 37.7 100.0 0.0
WA 1& 430 60.5 39.5 99.9 0.1
WI 6 3830 55.2 44.8 100.0 0.0

@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

Poll Analysis: New gains for Trump

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Clinton
Trump
78.9% probability of winning
21.1% probability of winning
Mean of 288 electoral votes
Mean of 250 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Last week’s analysis had Sec. Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 309 EVs to 229 EV, and gave Clinton a 96.2% chance of winning an election held then.

About 25 new polls have been released since then, and Trump has made further gains. Now, a Monte Carlo analysis of head-to-head polls gives Clinton 78,889 wins and Trump 21,111 wins (including the 2,468 ties) out of 100,000 simulated elections. Clinton received (on average) 288 to Trump’s 250 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 78.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a 21.1% probability of winning.

Here are a few notes for individual states.

There isn’t a lot of good news for Clinton, but in Arizona, an old Trump+5% poll aged out, leaving a series of much closer polls. Consequently, Trump’s probability of winning the state has dropped from 92.5% to only 80.5%.

Something similar has happened in Florida. A clear outlier poll with Clinton up +14% has aged out, and we have two new polls. The tally has Clinton leading 3 and Trump leading 3 with one tie. The net result is that we went from Clinton with a 82% probability of taking the state last week to a 59% chance of Trump taking the state this week. Florida is a toss-up.

In Maine a new SurveyUSA poll gives us verification that Maine’s 2nd CD is strongly for Trump, while the 1st CD is strongly for Clinton. The CDs would split in an election held now. Overall, however, Clinton would take the state.

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Minnesota has Clinton at +6% over Trump. Still, the small size of the poll means that Clinton’s chances are pegged at 88%. The longer polling history suggests Clinton would easily take the state.

clintontrump22aug16-22sep16minnesota

Nevada has flipped. We have five current polls, and Trump has small leads in the last four polls. Last week we gave Clinton a 63% chance of winning Nevada. Now Trump has a 68% chance. Clearly, Nevada is a swing state.

clintontrump22aug16-22sep16nevada

North Carolina has flipped as well. Clinton had a tenuous lead last week, with a 58% chance of taking the state. With three new polls that all go to Trump, the GOP nominee now has a 69% chance of winning the state.

clintontrump22aug16-22sep16north-carolina

Ohio has strengthened for Trump on account of a new Trump+5% poll. Trump has led in the past 5 polls, raising his chances from 78% last week to 90% this week.

clintontrump22aug16-22sep16ohio

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 22 Sep 2015 to 22 Sep 2016, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Trump is now in his strongest position of the entire election cycle, even though his chances of winning are about 1 in 5. This change reflects what we have seen in the national polls a week or two ago. Since these analyses rely on state polls, there is a lag as new polls come in and old polls drop out. The next week will be interesting to see if and where Trump “maxes out”, as Clinton seems to be recovering from her bad streak of national polls.

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottle

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight. Please join us for an evening of conversation and political debate (preparation) over drinks.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight, the Tri-Cities and Vancouver, WA chapters also meet. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Kent chapter meets. Finally, next Monday, the Shoreline chapter meets.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Stephen with a polite reminder about polls.

Samantha Bee: “Asking” the “tough” questions: Part I and Part II.

Thom: Why won’t the media push back on liar think tanks & experts.

Jim Earl: An obituary for televangelist Jan Crouch.

The 2016 Sexist, Racist Clown Show:

Stephen with some North Korean leader nukes sarcasm.

Susie Sampson chats with a (rather deplorable) White Supremacist.

James Corden: Political monologue.

Seth Meyers: Dammit! Wells Fargo.

Samantha Bee: Outfoxed by FOX.

Thom: A post-factual world.

Hillary

Daily Show with outrage court: Patriotism vs. Protest

White House: West Wing Week.

Seth Meyers: Don’t forget to vote!

Conan with a political monologue.

Jimmy Kimmel: Drunk Rudy Giuliani.

Colbert does Trevor Noah Part I and Part II.

Thom: How Higher Education is being folded into the Libertarian movement.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Poll Analysis: Trump Makes Gains

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Clinton
Trump
96.2% probability of winning
3.8% probability of winning
Mean of 309 electoral votes
Mean of 229 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

I’m buried this week, so this report will be brief. Let me first mention that I usually send out Tweets from @hominidviews with each poll I add to the database, and include a graph of the recent polling for the state. I also announce new analyses there, and sometimes offer quick previews when I don’t have time to do a full analysis. So follow me at @hominidviews for these updates.

Last week Donald Trump had made small gains over Sec. Hillary Clinton. Plenty of new polls have come—about 35—and many of these polls were conducted during at least part of Clinton’s “bad week.” Not surprisingly, Trump makes gains.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 96,242 times and Trump wins 3,758 times (including the 702 ties). The previous analysis had Clinton winning almost 100% of the simulated elections. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 96.2% probability of winning and Trump would have a 3.8% probability of winning.

Clinton received (on average) 309 to Trump’s 229 electoral votes. This is substantially down from the 340 Clinton had last week, but still above the 270 threshold needed to win.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Open Thread 9-16-2016-AD

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A) Yay! B) I’m not sure how temporary putting the bunker on hold is. Hopefully it won’t be back, as is or slightly modified, in a few months. C) Holy shit, great job activist community. D) Even as Murray was doing the right thing his statement was pretty shitty. Blaming McGinn and environmentalists for the cost. What?

Op-En—Thr-Ead

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I don’t know exactly the details of “try” to solve homelessness crisis in Seattle. But the main thing is to build more housing. A lot more. Public and private sectors. It probably means better zoning and better incentives to not just build luxury housing.

It isn’t punishing people for being homeless, especially when they don’t have other options. Best case, that means they leave the jungle and go somewhere else. Maybe a sanctioned place, maybe some other unsanctioned place, maybe another city or the suburbs.

Poll Analysis: Senate Prognosis

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Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
11.8% probability of a majority
88.2% probability of a majority
Mean of 49 seats
Mean of 51 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

An analysis of state head-to-head polls in Senate races suggests that Republicans would most likely control the Senate if the election was to be held today. Democrats have made small improvements since my previous analysis in July.

After 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 1239 times, there were 10566 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 88195 times. Democrats have a 11.8% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 88.2% probability of controlling the Senate. This is only up slightly from the previous analysis. Where Democrats have gained is in the number of expected seats, going from 48.2 (on average) to 48.5. The median number of seats remains at 48.

A few states warrant comment.

The Arizona race has gone in Sen. John McCain’s (R) favor. He was at a 76% chance in July; now he is nearly at 100%. That said, the polling show great variability, so Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick may not be down for the count just yet.

senate13aug16-13sep16arizona1

Nothing has changed in Illinois, in the seat held by Republican Mark Kirk. Democrat Tammy Duckworth only has a 38% chance of winning, but the polling is old and (possibly an outlier). Illinois may well be a pick-up, but we don’t have good, recent polling to say so.

senate13aug16-13sep16illinois2

Last July, U.S. Representative Baron Hill (D) withdrew from the Indiana Senate race to make room for former U.S. Senator Evan Bayh (D). That changed the nature of the race. The state is now widely considered a Democratic pick-up.

Missouri was nearly a toss-up in July. Now it is solid for Republican Roy Blunt. Democrat Jason Kander only wins 22 the 100,000 simulated elections.

senate13aug16-13sep16missouri2

In Nevada, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto was leading Republican Joe Heck with a 67% probability of winning in July. Alas, the polling since then has favored Heck, and the Republican now has a 91% of winning an election now. Still, most of the polls are extremely close.

senate13aug16-13sep16nevada1

New Hampshire’s incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte has been in the fight for her life against Democrat Maggie Hassan. In July, the race was tied up. And, the fact is, Hassan leads in most polls. But one strong recent poll gives Ayotte the edge with a 78% probability of winning right now.

senate13aug16-13sep16new_hampshire2

In Ohio, Democrat Ted Strickland has been slowly losing ground to incumbent Sen. Rob Portman (R). The graph says it all:

senate13aug16-13sep16ohio2

Pennsylvania was red in the previous analysis. But Sen. Pat Toomey (R) has been slipping to Democrat Katie McGinty, and the Democrat now has an 87% chance of winning now.

senate13aug16-13sep16pennsylvania2

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

[Read more…]

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottlePlease join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening over the next week. Tonight, the Federal Way, Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet. On Thursday, the Tacoma, Bremerton, and Spokane chapters meet. And on Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

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