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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Awkward Exes: A forth-of-July story.

Should women be drafted?

Being Murdered in America:

Ann Telnaes: Issues that motivate the G.O.P. controlled congress to act.

FAUX Sexuality:

Money for corrupt Senators.

Bill Maher: Two Reps. forward.

Jimmy Dore: Political jokes of the week.

Mental Floss: Forth of July facts

The 2016 G.O.P. Drumpf Enterprises Clown Show:

Mark Fiore: Journey to Planet Jupitearth.

White House: West Wing Week.

Farron Cousins with Howard Nations: Koch shadow network is funding dangerous candidates all over the country.

Sam Seder: SCOTUS decision dump.

Jimmy Dore: Report find that Tony Blair schemed with Bush to invade Iraq.

Hillary Makes History:

Minute Physics: Explaining gravitational waves.

Young Turks: Bizarre Wingnut conspiracy theory about UN vehicles:

Here’s why the U.S. education system is broken.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Poll Analysis: Clinton has a solid lead over Trump

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Clinton
Trump
100.0% probability of winning
0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 354 electoral votes
Mean of 184 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

It has been some time since I’ve done a general election match-up using state head-to-head polls. Way back last October Hillary Clinton held a good lead over Donald Trump and would have defeated Trump with 96.6% probability. But these results were from back in the days when we had few polls matching up Trump and Clinton. We have many more now.

From a analysis of state polls through yesterday, and after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton takes 100,000 wins. On average, Clinton received 354 to Trump’s 184 electoral votes. In other words, if the election was held now, Clinton would certainly win, and likely in a landslide.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

The electoral map for Trump is grim. He loses almost all the swing states: Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Missouri, and Iowa. On top of that, he loses Kansas, New Mexico, Arizona, and Kentucky!

The Arizona and Kansas results may be an artifact of one large outlier poll in each state. New Mexico and Kentucky are both based on single PPP polls. Still, Trump can take these four states and still loses handily.

One interesting finding is that Maine splits its districts, although the state goes for Clinton overall.

Today, Donald Trump met with G.O.P. lawmakers, telling them he would put Oregon, Washington, Connecticut and Michigan “in play.” But apparently not. Aside from turning Nevada from blue to red, and one CD in Maine from blue to red, Trump isn’t putting purple states in play at this point. It seems unlikely that solid blue states like Oregon, Washington and Connecticut are going to turn red.

[Read more…]

Lyin’ Eyman has more legal troubles

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Remember way back in the early aughts when, Tim Eyman, tearfully confessed to being a liar in the “…biggest lie of my life”?

“I was in lie mode,” he said. “I became riddled with guilt. It was the biggest lie of my life and it was over the stupidest thing in the world. The biggest thing I’m guiltiest of is an enormous ego. Hubris.”
[…]

Eyman emphasized that he had done nothing illegal.
“This is all fricking legal …but beyond stupid,” he said.

No…”stupid” isn’t the right word…it was another LIE. At least, the Washington state AG thought so. Eyman was prosecuted and settled, paying a $50,000 fine and was permanently enjoined from acting as a political committee treasurer.

Ten years later, Lyin’ Eyman was at it again:

PDC investigators say the expenses that were reported as paying for signatures, but in fact were payments to Eyman violate state disclosure laws. Payments to him violate laws against personal use, they added.

The multiple violations are so serious the commission can’t levy adequate penalties, and the commission should send the matter to the attorney general’s office to take the case to court, they said.

And today we learn that there are many more violations of campaign finance and disclosure laws:

The latest complaint deals with an Eyman-sponsored political action committee (PAC) — “Bring Back our $30 Car Tabs — Voters Want More Choices” that sponsored and aired 21 online videos that opposed 49 candidates for the Washington State Legislature.

The ads cost $45,318 and were apparently financed by $22,500 contributions from two wealthy supporters: Vancouver, Washington, developer Clyde Holland and Camas Investment CEO Kenneth Fisher.

According to a report by the Public Disclosure Commission, 10 of the 21 videos meet the statutory definition of “independent expenditures” under state law.

The state requires footprints on so-called “independent expenditure” ads, which often fill TV screens before election day with messages that are unremittingly nasty. By off-loading negative advertising on “independent” groups, candidates can make themselves appear to be running upbeat races.

According to the PDC, the 10 Eyman-sponsored videos did not include the disclaimer: “No candidate authorized this ad.” The videos did not identify a sponsor’s name, city or state. The videos incorrectly listed the required five leading contributors to the videos.

“Bring Back Our $30 Car Tabs — VWMC,” in its filing with the state, listed as its sole purpose support for a ballot initiative — not attacking legislators. (The initiative was subsequently scrubbed.) The Eyman PAC did not file an amended form to update its purpose to attack legislators.

The PDC is throwing the disclosure rule book at Eyman.

Tim “Lyin'” Eyman has spent more than a decade personally profiting by embezzling funds intended for initiatives and flaunting Washington’s finance and disclosure laws. Isn’t it about time he be taken off the street or at least out of the political arena?

I think a long stint behind bars will offer him new appreciation for the necessity of taxes….

Open Thread July 6

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I love reading about the progress of the Angel Lake Station. It’s both that light rail is inching further along, and that I’m excited to go wander around Angel Lake. When I have a free weekend day, I love just hopping on the rail, getting to a station, and wandering around, aimlessly. I can, and do, do that with buses, but it’s not the same.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottleThe Independence Day holiday is over, and it is time to get back to work. The first order of business? A visit to the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally to scratch that political itch.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Long Beach, and West Seattle chapters also meet. The Lakewood and Bellingham chapters meet on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets.

There are 178 chapters of Living Liberally, including nineteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Stephen: Who let the Red Cross decide what’s cool and not cool?.

The President goes viral.

Jimmy Dore: John Boehner would have firehosed the Dem sit-in:

Can Texas actually secede from the U.S.?

Not Safe with Nikki Glaser: Obama’s moving on, and we should, too.

Maddow: Pentagon ends US military transgender ban.

Farron Cousins: Polls show Americans want action on gun control.

Thom: July 4th 1776…The first brexit.

White House: West Wing Week.

PsychoSuperMom: If men could get pregnant.

The 2016 G.O.P. Drumpf Enterprises Clown Show:

Mental Floss: 39 fun museum facts.

Stephen: “Lesser Pope-pologies”.

Sam Seder: Laura Ingraham suggests we should all wear adult diapers to avoid transgendered people.

Farron Cousins: Paul Ryan unveils his dangerously stupid Obamacare replacement plan.

Thom: Lying about science for politics is evil.

Young Turks: Republicans Waste more money investigating nonsense.

Minute Physics: Where do galaxies come from?

David Pakman: Does Congress really ban CDC from researching gun violence?

Stephen: Fun with presidential polls.

Mark Fiore: The What About X Committee.

Thom with Michael Mann: Can humanity survive climate change?

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Stop Giving Scam Artists Money, Everyone

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I should have more insightful commentary than comply with the subpoena, Tim Eyman. You big ol’ horse’s ass. But I don’t.

At a certain point, a point long past, it became clear that Tim Eyman was more huckster than anything else.

I think it says something good about a society that a certain number of scams can survive. That people don’t just assume the worst, or that they’re forgiving is a characteristic that scuzzy people take advantage of. I’d rather have that and, some scam artists who take advantage of it, than people have their guard so up that they catch everything.

Far be it from me to tell asshole conservatives what to do with their money, but I’d think there must be a better deal somewhere else.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottleThe Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally meets tonight. Please join us for some political engagement over an elixir.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.





Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight, the Tri-Cities chapter meets. The Woodinville chapter meets on Thursday. And next Monday, the Yakima and South Bellevue chapters meet.

There are 178 chapters of Living Liberally, including nineteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Muslim meet.

Farron Cousins: House Republicans vote to keep dark money donors’ identities secret.

Maddow: Short handed Supreme Court crisis deepens.

The GOP Drumpf Clown Show:

Mental Floss: 41 facts about vegetables.

Mark Fiore: Paul Ryan’s Plan-O-Stuff

White House: West Wing Week.

Stephen: Why am I watching Congress on Periscope?

Bill Maher covers the conventions.

The Nightly Show: Oakland’s Police Chiefs.

Gunz in America:

Obama names Stonewall a national monument.

Is Google manipulating search results for Hillary?

Farron Cousins: Republican Governors are preventing you from getting a raise

Rubio’s Flippity-floppity-flippity-floppity on a Senate re-election run.

Young Turks: Affirmative action survives Supreme Court.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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