The only convincing thing one can say about yesterday’s KING5/SurveyUSA poll of the King County Executive race is that the top line is statistically unchanged from the one three weeks ago. Susan Hutchison drops a couple points, Larry Phillips rises one, while Dow Constantine and Ross Hunter remain steady. If there’s any motion, it’s from Fred Jarrett climbing from 4% to 7%, but even that might fairly be categorized as noise.
| 7/14 | 6/23 | |
| Hutchison | 39 | 41 |
| Constantine | 12 | 12 |
| Phillips | 8 | 7 |
| Jarrett | 7 | 4 |
| Hunter | 6 | 6 |
| Other | 5 | 7 |
| Undecided | 22 | 23 |
It’s hard to predict anything from these numbers except that Hutchison will make it through to the November election, but if I were Constantine’s folks I suppose I’d be somewhat buoyed, although Phillips does appear to be closing the gap with liberal voters.
Oddly enough, Hutchison continues to poll surprisingly well with liberal voters, relative to the other members of the field, which suggests that many voters just don’t know her very well yet. No surprise there, and something the Democratic nominee will ultimately have to work hard to correct, considering that word in the street is that the usual Republican suspects plan to spend $1 million on Hutchison’s behalf in the general.
Here’s hoping the usual Democratic suspects don’t get complacent.
UPDATE:
And speaking of the usual Democratic suspects, Constantine just beat out Phillips for the highly prized SEIU endorsement.
Looks like Jarrett is showing the biggest momentum and growth.
Complacent? Goodspaceguy finishes 3rd (after Hutchison and Constantine) among Independents.
He’s got a wicked gender gap, though.
Can’t help but wonder if people are identifying themselves as “liberal” who really don’t pay a lot of attention to local politics. If that’s the case, many will pick Hutchison on name recognition alone, not having the foggiest idea who any of the other candidates are.
Art @ 3: Yep, at this point it’s all about name recognition. Living in Snohomish County, I don’t have a dog in this hunt, but it seems that more attention should be shown on this race.
It would help if the local newspapers did some in-depth analyisis of each of the candidates. But with there being only one newspaper in town, which is pretty much happy with the results so far, I’m not holding my breath.
The obvious issue here is that we no longer have any effective medium of mass communication. Constantine, Jarrett, and Phillips may be a law firm or perhaps an accounting firm but they sure as hell are unknown to most of the community.
I suspect that the ONLY way now to get name recognition is by flying a sky writer or dirigible over Seattle trailing your name followed by “Fuckin Good Candidate for County Exec.).
Constantine and Phillips need to read Westneat’s column this morning. In this time of fiscal crisis at the county, spending big $$$$ for local ferries that carry only HUNDREDS of people per day, that’s NOT what voters want.
Jarrett is onto something when he says divert that ferry money to keep Metro transit routes in service. Return on dollars spent is many many times greater, buses over ferries.
I’ve been watching the Times editorial board interview this afternoon with the KCE candidates. My, Susan Hutchison really is our own Sarah Palin. Heh, that was one heck of an answer she gave on the annexation question. Airhead that she is, she’s obviously not qualified for the job. Alas, that won’t stop wingnuts and the uninformed from voting for her.
7
Airheadedness and unpreparedness are essential attributes of any candidate that wingies support.
@8…PL…
I don’t recall that we supported The Darcy or His Popiness Richard I. Goldy did, however.
The Piper
Piper
Darcy is much more on top of public policy than Susan Hutchison is. Susan Hutchison feels qualified for office because she, like Sarah Palin, has a supreme sense of entitlement that flows from an utter lack of self-doubt. Now, I’m not saying that self-doubt is a widespread attribute of politicians of any stripe, but it sure should be. Throw in a little humility, too, and the body politic might just be a whole lot better served.
@10…PL…
Being the supreme policy wonk isn’t a per se qualification for office. If it was, then elected officials would all be ex-think tankers.
People respond to confident leaders who are comfortable in their own skin. cf Ronaldus Magnus Reagaus. People don’t like smarty-pants, thin-skinned types irrespective of the level of their book smarts. cf The Darcy.
Hutchison must be doing something right – or avoiding doing things wrong – in order for her numbers to stay relatively constant. My sense is that out of the two candidates who survive to the general election, KC voters will opt for the one closest to the center.
That Hutchison refuses to campaign as directed by the HA Happy Hooligans means what again? And Goldy’s track record in stridently attacking candidates in local elections hasn’t been a real winner. cf Dan Satterberg, Dave Reichert, Jane Hague.
Maybe it’s his strategy that leaves something to be desired? Just a thought…
The Piper
This debate is inane. Unless the public somehow is involved, Hutchinson could be a combination of Solon and Roosevelt or a mix of Nixon and Mickey Mouse without her attributes mattering.
Without some form of public media, debates abut candidates are of interest to very few. So far it looks loike this election is going to be based on advertising and name famiiarity.
If I were running for this job, my first step would be tio change my name to Abe Lincoln, John Kennedy, Bill Gates, Dan Evans or Michael Jackson.
Or, if I had the money, I might rent Seattle Center for rallies with free beer and clowns every weekend.
Piper says: “Being the supreme policy wonk isn’t a per se qualification for office. If it was, then elected officials would all be ex-think tankers. People respond to confident leaders who are comfortable in their own skin.”
You are pretty much correct with regard to the American electorate. We tend to reward the charismatic candidate, he of the mane of hair or she of the brilliant smile. We reward those who can touch us on a personal level. JFK and Reagan surely come to mind. But, then we also have some examples of policy wonks with charisma who get elected–Clinton and Obama come quickly to mind. Across the globe, policy wonks with nothing by way of charisma get elected. Take a look at Australia’s last two prime ministers–one conservative, one liberal. They both peel paint when they speak, yet Australia has mostly escaped the global recession. Look at Merkel in Germany. Talk about a hausfrau. She’s not doing a bad job.
We have in this nation an anti-intellectual strain which, frankly, is not healthy. It is, rather, nutty. Being smart, prepared, and on top of things should trump a nice smile anyday. I want my president to be smarter than me. Thankfully, at the moment, that would be what we have.
@13
I would agree with you except that we are also now becoming a nation iso9lated from our political aspirants. I would Palin betcha that less than 1/10 of voters in KC have any idea wyho Constantine is, have any idea who SH is beside someone anmed after a Cancer Institute, etc.
The SEIU endorsement will be enough to give the election to Hutchison.
@10…hahahah, Darcy is one of the biggest dipshits to come out of the eastside in a long long time….and thats saying something.
the Democrats sweep the elections and she cant even win in one the most liberal states in the union…that should tell you something.
16
Learn how to punctuate, dipshit.
oh goody!…its the punctuation police! WOOHOO!
look proud leftnut, just because you pop a boner each time you see that lying, narcissistic, smarmy assed geek called Darcy, dont get all huffy at me – I like blonds with big tits.
Piper Scott @ 9,
“I don’t recall that we supported The Darcy or His Popiness Richard I.”
Perhaps not, but I’m guessing you supported the Irons Motherbeater, Mike McSerial Exaggerator, Jane “Yes, Ossifer?” Hague, and Doug “Hands” Sutherland….
Dow is a huge chemical conglomerate and Constantine was an emperor and later on, a Pope.
I think that the chemical Pope will win due to name recognition.
Constantine died as Emperor, never converted, and was succeeded by a far wiser son who tried to bring back Greek culture.
Other than that, as we know Hutchinson was a pitcher for the Raineers before she cured Cancer.
@21 And don’t forget, Hutch was a Franklin Quaker.
Has anyone looked at Hutchison’s Wikipedia entry. It is directly lifted from a PR piece. First, why does she rate a Wikipedia page and second, it looks like it need to have some balance added.