[03 NOV 2020]
Since yesterday’s analysis, about 20 new polls have come out. The results have not changed much. This is my final analysis of the for the Senate races.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99804 times, there were 196 ties, and Republicans control the Senate 0 times. This analysis suggests that Democrats will almost certainly control the Senate in 2021.
Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*
This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*
- 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 100.0%, Republicans control the Senate 0.0%.
- Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 53.3 ( 1.1)
- Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 46.7 ( 1.1)
- Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 53 (51, 55)
- Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 47 (45, 49)
Expected outcomes from the simulations:
- Democratic seats w/no election: 34
- Independent seats w/no election: one
- Republican seats w/no election: 30
- Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 11
- Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 16
- Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
- Contested Republican seats likely to switch: seven
This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Democrat | 49 | |||
| Strong Democrat | 2 | 51 | ||
| Leans Democrat | 2 | 2 | 53 | |
| Weak Democrat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53 |
| Weak Republican | 0 | 0 | 0 | 47 |
| Leans Republican | 3 | 3 | 47 | |
| Strong Republican | 5 | 44 | ||
| Safe Republican | 39 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| # | Sample | Percent | Percent | Democrat | Republican | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | @ | polls | size | Democrat | Republican | % wins | % wins |
| AL | 5 | 3548 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| AK | 2 | 1404 | 48.6 | 51.4 | 21.7 | 78.3 | |
| AZ | 25 | 17135 | 53.0 | 47.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| AR | 2 | 1086 | 33.2 | 66.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| CO | 6 | 3715 | 55.2 | 44.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| DE | 1& | 712 | 67.8 | 32.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| GA | 16 | 13003 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 82.6 | 17.4 | |
| GA | 4 | 2470 | 54.9 | 45.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| ID | 1& | 487 | 34.1 | 65.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| IL | 2 | 1289 | 65.6 | 34.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| IA | 14 | 9688 | 50.4 | 49.6 | 72.9 | 27.1 | |
| KS | 3 | 2512 | 48.0 | 52.0 | 8.9 | 91.1 | |
| KY | 5 | 2561 | 44.9 | 55.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| LA | 1& | 680 | 38.8 | 61.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| ME | 4 | 3156 | 51.8 | 48.2 | 92.1 | 7.9 | |
| MA | 2 | 1474 | 69.2 | 30.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| MI | 29 | 22523 | 53.4 | 46.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| MN | 11 | 7670 | 54.6 | 45.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| MS | 2 | 1032 | 47.2 | 52.8 | 9.0 | 91.0 | |
| MT | 6 | 4198 | 49.3 | 50.7 | 26.0 | 74.0 | |
| NE | 1 | 395 | 27.3 | 72.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| NH | 4 | 3090 | 57.7 | 42.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NJ | 2 | 1194 | 65.3 | 34.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NM | 1 | 1133 | 54.2 | 45.8 | 97.9 | 2.1 | |
| NC | 28 | 22416 | 51.9 | 48.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| OK | 1 | 5102 | 39.6 | 60.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| OR | 1& | 849 | 61.1 | 38.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| RI | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| SC | 7 | 5492 | 49.1 | 50.9 | 18.1 | 81.9 | |
| SD | 1 | 455 | 41.1 | 58.9 | 0.2 | 99.8 | |
| TN | 2 | 982 | 39.1 | 60.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| TX | 18 | 18716 | 47.0 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| VA | 6 | 4111 | 58.6 | 41.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| WV | 1&
| 386 |
38.3 |
61.7 |
0.2 |
99.8 |
| |
| WY | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) |
@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
