Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
Young Turks: Americans are fundamentally progressive says new poll.
Thom: The myth of the 1% job creator.
Sam Seder: Bigoted Pastor wants to round-up gays & wait for them to die.
Kimmel: Mitt’s first day in office.
Actual Audio: Mitt on Bain.
Young Turks: Barry Obama & The “Choom Gang”:
Thom with the Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Ugly.
Sam Seder: Iowa G.O.P. platform is insane.
Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Missouri experiments with execution.
A A rallying call for Democrats.
Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Memorializin’ the War on Women.
Young Turks: Which Presidents have higher spending growth, Democrats or Republicans?
Thom: Why Joe Biden needs to blurt out a defense of pot.
Sam Seder: Rush Limbaugh gets creepy with 14-year-old girl.
Ann Telnaes: Pelvic Politics.
Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Young Turks: Pres. Obama is right about same sex marriage.
Letters to the President: Tanisha’s Story.
Pap: The worst Republican Party in history.
Sam Seder: FAUX & Friends nutty ideas about food stamps and the unemployed.
Stephanie Miller: Lessons Romney needs in education.
And the Drone Goes On:
- Ann Telnaes: Drone strikes and collateral damage.
- Mark Fiore: Dronetopia!
Thom with Nick Hanauer: Is Romney a preditor?
Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Stigmatizing Poor People is Good?!
Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Wisconsin edition.
Maddow: The Reverse-Robin-Hood Republicans.
Mitt Romney: Not a job creator.
Sam Seder: Heartland institute gets blowback over Unabomber/Climate Change denial campaign.
Alyona: Romney’s education plan FAIL:
Fred Karger for President.
White House: West Wing Week.
Obama and the fight for LGBT rights.
Greenman: How to talk to an Ostrich.
Maddow: Anti-abortion activists terrorize doctors in Georgia.
Thom with even more of the Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Alabama doubles down on undocumented immigrants.
The Neo-Racists Birfers:
- Ed and Pap: Romney is embracing Birfers.
- Young Turks: NBC should fire birfer Donald.
- Bill Maher: Countering Birferism with Wiferism.
Buzz 60: Summer of presidential politics.
Obama speaks to Iowans:
Young Turks: Clinton poses with porn stars.
Ann Telnaes: Physical limits in Afghanistan.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Poll Analysis: Romney wins some, loses some
Obama | Romney |
99.5% probability of winning | 0.5% probability of winning |
Mean of 323 electoral votes | Mean of 215 electoral votes |
There were lots of new polls released in the two days since my previous analysis:
start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
AZ | PPP | 17-May | 20-May | 500 | 4.4 | 43 | 50 | R+7 |
CA | PPIC | 14-May | 20-May | 894 | — | 50 | 39 | O+11 |
FL | Marist | 17-May | 20-May | 1078 | 3.0 | 45 | 40 | O+5 |
GA | InsiderAdvantage | 22-May | 22-May | 438 | — | 39.9 | 52.3 | R+12.4 |
MD | PPP | 14-May | 21-May | 852 | 3.4 | 58 | 35 | O+23 |
MA | Suffolk | 20-May | 22-May | 600 | — | 59.3 | 34.0 | O+25.3 |
NC | Civitas | 19-May | 20-May | 600 | 4.0 | 45 | 47 | R+2 |
OH | Marist | 17-May | 20-May | 1103 | 3.0 | 45 | 40 | O+5 |
VA | Marist | 17-May | 20-May | 1076 | 3.0 | 46 | 42 | O+4 |
WI | St Norbert College | 17-May | 22-May | 406 | 5.0 | 49 | 43 | O+6 |
WI | Reason-Rupe | 14-May | 18-May | 609 | 4.0 | 46 | 36 | O+10 |
The good news for Romney is that Arizona gives him a modest +7% lead over Obama. And Romney will need it, now that Secretary of State Ken Bennett (R-AZ) has concluded that Obama really was born in Hawaii. Although there is an occasional poll showing Obama ahead, the larger trend shows the state in Romney’s column:
Other good news for Romney is that North Carolina has him up by +2% over Obama, and he takes three of the four May polls. The larger trend has favored Obama since late 2010, but things are clearly changing in the state:
Florida is up to its old tricks of bouncing between candidates. After being down -6% in the previous poll, Obama scores +5% over Romeny. The overall trend in FL looks more favorable to Obama, but that can clearly change:
In good news for Obama, we finally get the first poll out of Maryland. Obama has a dominating +23% lead over Romney.
Obama takes another Ohio poll with a +5% lead over Romney. Obama has now led in the last ten Ohio polls, dating back to late February.
Virginia gives Obama +4% over Romney. The recent trend still favors Obama in the state, but there is at least a hint that the state is swinging toward Romney:
Both Wisconsin polls give Obama the lead over Romney, and solidify his lead in the state.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,494 times and Romney wins 506 times (including the 51 ties). Obama receives (on average) 323 to Romney’s 215 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 99.5% probability of winning and Romney, a 0.5% probability of winning.
The probability is a slight improvement for Romney, up from a 0.2%. On the other hand, Romney’s expected electoral vote total drops from 220 to 215, as Obama’s increases from 318 to 323.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
Poll Analysis: Romney gains ever so slightly on Obama
Obama | Romney |
99.8% probability of winning | 0.2% probability of winning |
Mean of 318 electoral votes | Mean of 220 electoral votes |
My analysis from last Friday showed President Barack Obama leading Romney with an average of 333 to 205 electoral votes, and a 99.9% probability of winning an election held now.
Over the last few days, a bunch of new state head-to-head polls have been released. In addition, I’ve learned about a couple of recent polls that I had missed. I owe a big thanks to Sam Minter, who also aggregates and analyzes state head-to-head polls in this race. Sam has spotted a couple of my errors over the past two months, and has let me know about some recent polls I was missing.
Here are the new polls added for today’s analysis:
start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
FL | Quinnipiac | 15-May | 21-May | 1722 | 2.4 | 41 | 47 | R+6 |
MA | Rasmussen | 07-May | 07-May | 500 | 4.5 | 56 | 35 | O+21 |
MI | Glengariff Group | 10-May | 11-May | 600 | 4.0 | 45.1 | 39.5 | O+5.6 |
NJ | Quinnipiac | 09-May | 14-May | 1582 | 2.5 | 49 | 39 | O+10 |
NC | SurveyUSA | 18-May | 21-May | 524 | 4.4 | 44.5 | 45.2 | R+0.8 |
OH | Quinnipiac | 02-May | 07-May | 1069 | 3.0 | 45 | 44 | O+1 |
OK | SoonerPoll | 07-May | 10-May | 504 | 4.4 | 27 | 62 | R+35 |
PA | Rasmussen | 21-May | 21-May | 500 | 4.5 | 47 | 41 | O+6 |
PA | PPP | 17-May | 20-May | 671 | 3.8 | 50 | 42 | O+8 |
TN | Vanderbilt Poll | 02-May | 09-May | 752 | 4.0 | 40 | 47 | R+7 |
TX | U Texas | 07-May | 13-May | 511 | 4.3 | 35 | 55 | R+20 |
VT | Castleton Poll | 07-May | 16-May | 607 | 4.0 | 59 | 28 | O+31 |
The bad news for Obama is the Florida poll that has Romney up by +6%. Romney has taken three of the last four polls in Florida, and would have a 91% probability of taking the state in an election now.
The other new results favorable to Romney come from red states. I should point out that Texas shows a remarkable +20 for Romney using the poll’s Likely Voter results. As DailyKos’ Steve Singiser points out, the definition the pollster used for likely voters is rather dubious. The poll’s registered voter results show a +8 lead for Romney. (I always take the likely voter over registered voter results but, either way, Romney will most likely take Texas.)
There is more bad than good news for Romney. First, he barely leads Obama (by 0.8%) in North Carolina. Over the past month, Obama and Romney have split the four NC polls. Right now Obama wins about two thirds of the simulated elections, but the trend probably favors Romney. Still…shouldn’t Romney be much stronger in NC? (Oh…and let’s not discuss the odd SC result…again. Just keep on praying for a new poll in the state.)
More bad news for Romney is that Obama dominates in Michigan by +5.6%. This makes six consecutive polls in favor of Obama in MI, all taken this year.
The terrible news for Romney is Ohio, where Obama continues to lead, albeit by only +1%, but Obama leads in all three “current” polls and the long-term trend isn’t suggesting any changes soon:
And the super horrible news for Romney is Pennsylvania. Obama leads by +6% and +8% in the two new polls. Using all three current polls, Obama wins the state 99.7% of the time. And, like Ohio, the trend offers no hints at a Romney takeover:
How do things stack up now? After simulating 100,000 elections using the state head-to-head polls, Obama wins 99,761 times and Romney wins 239 times (including the 101 ties). Obama receives (on average) 318 to Romney’s 220 electoral votes. If the election was held now, Obama would win with a 99.8% probability.
Romney has gained, on average, +15 electoral votes compared to last week’s analysis, but that only translates into a one tenth of one percent increase in his chances of winning.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
Drinking Liberally — Seattle
Please join us tonight for another evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.
We meet this (and every) Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm, but a few folks show up earlier for dinner.
Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Tonight the Tri-Cities and Bellingham chapters also meet. The Burien chapter meets on Wednesday, and the Woodinville chapter meets on Thursday.
With 232 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and three more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter close by.
Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
Thom: Can Romney win by lying?
Obama on protecting a woman’s right to choose.
Newsy: Catholic church is investigating girl scouts.
Thom with The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Mitt Romney: Hot problems:
Thom: The right’s obsession with female body parts (i.e. the Republican War on Women™).
Jen: Shadowy organizations work to suppress the vote.
Daily Show on Space.
Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) and Newark Mayor Cory Booker (D) team up to do comedy.
Stephanie Cutter: Get the facts on Karl Rove’s BS.
Hey, good luck getting laid, Wisconsin State Senator Glenn Grothman.
Liberal Viewer: FAUX News fucks up on “liberal intolerance”.
Romney economics and the Bankruptcy and bailouts at GST Steel.
ONN: Republicans stalling Obama’s agenda by speaking & moving in slow motion.
Daily Show: Energy.
The Bane of Romney’s existence.
The Partisans: ZOMBIE AYN RAND:
Jen with Reich: The odd case of Romney praising Clinton.
Obama: One item on the #CongressToDoList.
Mitt Romney: “I stand by what I said, whatever it was.”
Gay Politics:
- Young Turks: FAUX’s Dr. Ablow is “a moron” for gay adoption comments
- Young Turks: NC on gay marriage.
- Sam Seder: RI Governor issues executive order recognizing same sex marriages
- Mark Fiore: Dogboy and Mr. Dan on gay marriage.
- Ann Telnaes: Mitt devolving.
- Sam Seder: Lesbian couple denied a driver.
Obama’s accomplishments on Higher education.
Newsy: Minority births outnumber white births for first time in history.
The GOP primary candidate performances embodied as butt plugs:
Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Ann Telnaes: Firing up Romney.
Sam Seder: Someone gives Teh Birfers a bone.
ONN: Alabama hosts first desegregated mass suicide.
Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Bill-O’s “Income inequality is bull”..
Ed and Pap: Obama campaign finally gets tough on Romney.
The Wright Stuff:
- Young Turks: Herman Cain says Rev. Wright Smears are ‘Fair Game’ on FAUX News.
- Thom: Wright vs. Mormonism ?!?
- Young Turks: Sean Hannity says Romney ‘made a mistake’ by not using Rev. Wright.
- Buzz 60: Race returns as an issue.
- Young Turks: The Wingnut plan to bring back failed Rev. Wright strategy.
- Glenn Beck (remember him?) offers $150,000 for Rev. Wright ‘Obama’ box
Maddow Show: Ugly echoes of 2008 encroach on Romney message.
Young Turks: ‘Professor Cenk’ breaks down Bain Capital’s buyout of GST.
The Daily Show on mobile devices.
Sam Seder: Mitt will “stand by” what he said.
Thom: Why Common Cause is suing the U.S. Senate.
Jonathan Mann: Mitt Romney’s Mirthless Laugh:
Actual Audio: Mitt Romney on his high school prank.
Sam Seder: DOJ says it is your Constitutional right to video tape the police.
Pap: Republicans are the losers in the War on Terror.
Thom: Even more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
White House: West Wing Week.
Maddow Show: Improving economy undermining Romney’s message.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Poll Analysis: Obama v. Romney
It’s been a long time since I done these analyses—just over a month. I quit doing them after Mitt Romney became the presumptive nominee. I pointed out that:
The effective end of the Republican primary this week should mark a change in the dynamics of this race. Expect Romney’s chances to improve considerably as new polls roll in. The full effect may not be seen for another month (depending on the frequency and diversity of polling).
Since Pres. Obama was beating Romney in 100% of the simulated elections, with an average electoral vote total of 347 to 191, it seemed silly to keep doing these analyses until the race looked a bit more “post-primary.”
Since that last analysis, 50 new polls have come out, covering 26 different states. (Still no new S.C. poll…sorry.) I guess it’s time to see how Obama and Romney stack up.
First, I should mention that the National polls make the race appear to be very close. The Real Clear Politics average of national polls has Obama leading Romney by +1.7%. The problem is, the national polls reflect the national vote. And as we remember all too well from 2000, the national vote does not always go the way of the Electoral College.
That is why I do these analyses. I collect only the state head-to-head polls and use them to infer the winner of the Electoral College. So, with an (apparently) close popular vote, how does the election look?
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,890 times and Romney wins 110 times (and we even give him the 12 ties). Obama receives (on average) 333 to Romney’s 205 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would be expected to win with a 99.9% probability to Romney’s 0.1% probability.
Huh…the “post-primary” election has hardly changed.
Obama | Romney |
99.9% probability of winning | 0.1% probability of winning |
Mean of 333 electoral votes | Mean of 205 electoral votes |
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
Drinking Liberally — Seattle
Please join us tonight for another evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. Tonight we’ll go out of our way to ignore the Oregon primary, given that the presidential primaries are settled and there isn’t even a Senate or gubernatorial race happening. But there is plenty of local, regional and national politics to keep us engaged for the evening.
We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm, but a few folks show up earlier for dinner.
Notice: Transpartisan Alliance Monthly Salon for May is “Earth’s Natural Resources: Power Down, Power Up, Power Over or Power With?” It’s this Wednesday, May 16, 6:30-9:30 PM in the Conference Room, Intiman Theater, Seattle Center. Panelists are Derik Andreoli-Energy Transitions Northwest (ETNW), David Wright-BCRA Design/Co-Founder-Sustainable Ballard, Rick Forschler-SeaTac City Council, and Joe Tomlinson-Physicist/Independent Researcher.
Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? There are other DL meetings this week. The Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking liberally meets every Tuesday night. Drinking Liberally Tacoma meets this Thursday.
Next Monday there are meetings of the Olympia, Yakima, and Shelton chapters.
With 232 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.
Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
Roy Zimmerman with a Michigan edition of Vote Republican.
Thom: Why is FAUX News supporting the Christian Taliban?
The truth about the Recession.
Thomas Friedman is an enormous mustache.
Craig Pridemore is running for WA State Auditor.
Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Marriage Equality:
- Stephen on Obama’s rainbow button.
- Suzie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Gay marriage.
- Jon on Obama’s big announcement.
- Ann Telnaes: North Carolina votes on gay marriage ban.
- Stephen on Obama’s announcement that he’s gay.
- Roy Zimmerman with a North Dakota edition of Vote Republican:
- Darcy Burner on President Obama’s support for marriage equality.
- Top Lines: Obama is gay…friendly.
- Alyona: Obama endorses gay marriage.
- Thom: Gay marriage rant — it’s NOT a state’s rights issue!
- Newsy: Obama endorses gay marriage.
- Mitt Romney: Backward on marriage equality.
- Young Turks: Bristol Palin gives Obama advice about parenting?!?
- Jen: The sound of history in the making.
- Jon on the gay marriaging of America.
- What can I say about this one but, “fucking INSANE”!
- Sam Seder: The bigots’ Last Hurrah in North Carolina.
ONN: In bipartisan spirit, Obama makes deal to get kicked in the balls.
Alyona’s Tool Time Award: McChrystal’s ‘off the record’ lectures at Yale.
Pap: Republicans are a threat to National Security.
Young Turks: Sheriff Joe Arpaio lawsuit.
Scott Walker:
- Scott Walker in early 2011: “Divide and conquer” the Unions.
- Thom: Walker is using taxpayer dollars to bribe voters.
- Sam Seder: Scott Walker ‘Divide and Conquer’ union strategy caught on tape.
White House: West Wing Week.
Bill Maher on Citizens United.
Nurses for Obama.
Ann Telnaes: Regime change in Russia.
Mitt Moments:
- Young Turks: Romney was a bully in High School.
- Jen: Bullygate memory problem or simple lying?
- Newsy: Romney accused of gay bullying as teen.
- Young Turks: Mitt is lying about not remembering.
- Mitt Romney: More severely conservative than Rick Santorum?
- Sam Seder: Mitt takes credit for Detroit auto bailout he opposed.
- Jen: ‘Romney bubble’ is separate from harsh realities many Americans.
- Buzz60: Romney was a high school bully.
- Romney versus Reality: Auto Bailouts
- Ed: “Let Detroit go bankrupt.”:
Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Alyona: Trayvon Hoodie target sells out.
Pap: Fear rules Republican minds..
Sam Seder: A Trayvon Martin gun range target sells out in 2 days.
The Republican War on Mothers™ (and other Women):
- The 7 dumbest things GOP politicians have said about abortion recently.
- Obama: We don’t need another fight about women’s reproductive health issues.
- Ann Telnaes: The best country for mothers.
Thom: High School student suing over global warming.
Mark Fiore: Assaulting Austerity.
ONN Week in Review.
Succeed: Obama for America.
Thom with The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Kathleen Drew is running for WA SOS.
Young Turks: Is Wall Street upset with Obama?
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
HorsesAss 2004-2012
It was sad to read Josh Feit’s announcement of the death of Publicola yesterday. Publicola has become a daily stop for me, and an important source for certain types of news. They filled a unique niche in the Pacific Northwest mediasphere.
It seems like the success of Publicola as media emerged from pure hard work–Erica and Josh appeared to be working their asses off. They hunted down political stories with enviable energy and tenacity, and presented it in their own style.
It took some time, but the mainstream media eventually warmed up to Publicola (indeed, folks at KUOW sounded like they had lost their best friend this morning). You can only break so many stories before your competitors have to sit up, pay attention, and consider you a peer.
The good news is that it looks like Crosscut will pick up Josh and Erica in some form or another–Publicola will live awhile longer under new management. (It’s almost like Crosscut wants to become relevant or something.) I hope the Publicola part of Crosscut can be as inspired as the independent Publicola.
An interesting and not so well known side story is Goldy’s role in the gestation and birth of Publicola. There is more behind that story for Goldy to divulge….
Finally, it is only fitting to point out that today is the 8th blogoversary of HorsesAss.
Goldy started this blog on May 10th, 2004 with this first post, with its first “fuck”, first commenter, and even the first fucking troll.
Eight years later, this is post number 10,222. We’ve had something over 511,000 comments, too many “fucks” and way too many fucking trolls to count.
Thanks to you, dear reader, we still have reason to be here because, like Publicola, our “financial model” certainly isn’t providing it.
Evolution happens
A day following passage of Amendment 1 in North Carolina, banning same-sex marriage in the state, Obama finally reaches the tipping point in his evolution toward support of same-sex marriage:
So what was the response “across the isle?”
RNC Chair Renee Blatherspoon (or whatever the fuck his name is): “…President Obama has played politics on this issue…”
Ahhh…Obama, who has been talking about his position “evolving” on this issue has, like an evil genius, picked THIS moment to capitalize on the issue for maximum political advantage!
And elsewhere:
Ralph Reed, a top organizer among religious conservatives, said Obama’s announcement was a “gift to the Romney campaign.” […] “The Obama campaign doesn’t have to worry about New York and California,” Reed said. “They have to worry about Ohio, Florida and Virginia and I don’t’ see evidence that it’s a winning issue in those states.”
and
“This decision may have made Barack Obama a one-term president,” Bob Vander Plaats the head of The Family Leader, a conservative faith group focused on politics in Iowa, said. This will stoke a part of the religious base even more against Obama, Vander Plaats said. “They were already fired up to get rid of Obama. This will only make them more on fire to get rid of Obama. And if I’m Romney today, I’m smiling,” he said.
In other words…this move was political suicide.
A politically shrewed move AND political suicide at the same time.
Clearly, Obama is Master of the Jedi mind trick….
Drinking Liberally — Seattle
Please join us tonight for another evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. There are a number of elections we will be tracking tonight:
- Wisconsin special Democratic primaries: This election will determine Gov. Scott Walker’s Democratic challenger. Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett is favored. Also, the Lt. Gov. and four state Senate primaries will be held.
- Indiana Republican primary: Sen. Richard Lugar is in a tight race against Teabagger favorite State Treasurer Richard Mourdock.
- North Carolina Constitutional Amendment: Amendment 1, which seems likely to pass, will add this to the NC Constitution:
Marriage between one man and one woman is the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or recognized in this State….
Come join the conversation as the election results are released.
We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm, but a few folks show up earlier for dinner or to watch the early returns.
Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? There are other DL meetings this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Bellingham, and Vancouver, WA chapters meet, and Thursday night Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets.
With 234 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.
Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
Thom: Is Libertarianism dead?
Sam Seder: North Carolina’s anti-gay amendment will ‘protect the Caucasian race’ says Senator’s wife.
David Letterman does Stephen Colbert.
Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Gay marriage will lead to White extinction.
Foxx in the school house:
Ann Telnaes: Blind leading the blind.
Sam Seder: Tens of thousands occupy May Day, Reuters calls it a ‘dud’.
Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Some Tea Party hypocrite.
Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.
Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, NJ edition.
Thom: Some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Stephen: Paul Ryan’s Christian budget cuts.
Alyona: John Yoo is off the hook for torture.
Greenman: Wind power at the crossroads.
Actual Audio: Boehner versus women.
Thom: War criminal John Yoo walks.
Young Turks: The bin Laden letters.
Occupy May Day.
This week in unnecessary censorship.
Campaign 2012:
- Forward.
- Suszy Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Newt’s out! We’re left with Mitt!.
- Mark Fiore: Obama, bin Laden, and Mitt.
- Jon on the Mormonness of Mitt’s religion.
- OFA: Swiss Bank Account.
- Pap: Republicans are stuck with Mitt. Now what?
- Jen: The road to the White House runs through Virginia.
- How to stand behind Mitt.
- Stephen: Mitt and Newt BFF
- Newt isn’t Mitt’s biggest supporter.
Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Heartland Institute for “Climate change is for Unibombers.
Jen: Republican War on women is real.
Jonathan Mann: This is why I march.
Thom: Exposing the biggest, most corrupt organization ever.
Daily Show: The oppression of Missouri gun owners.
Pap and Sen. Boxer: Republican War on Women.
Republicans, get in my vagina:
Sam Seder: The rich would rather give up American passport than pay taxes.
Alyona: Rubio’s DREAM Act, more like ‘Nightmare Act’.
White House: West Wing Week.
The Strange Detention of Daniel Chong:
- Young Turks: DEA leaves student to drink his own urine
- Sam Seder: Forced to drink his own urine….
- Young Turks: Daniel Chong found meth in cell.
Jon on bin Laden’s letters.
Romney, Bachmann, McDonnell: Turning Back the Clock on Women’s Health.
Thom: Some more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
We won’t have Newt Gingrich to kick around anymore
When Newt Gingrich first hinted at running for President in 2010, I knew it would be fun. Alas, fun has run its course.
Now, after a week of “pre-suspensions,” Newt has gone and quit us. And now that Newt has quit, he leaves behind a set of winners and losers:
- Loser: Newt’s creditors, who will likely be bilked out of millions.
- Loser: Newt’s “Think Tanks” and Not-Lobbying Organizations that have been driven to bankruptcy.
- Loser: Callista Gingirch, who has lost her one and only opportunity to be upgraded from “Third Lady”…
- Loser: Newt’s publisher, who must now put black dots on the remaining inventory of his books before tossing them into the bargain bin. Although, in balance, they probably had an EXCELLENT run of it so far, with a massive donor-sponsored book tour, complete with Guvment-provided security, and MSM-subsidized publicity.
- Loser: The people of Puerto Rico who aspire to Statehood
- Loser: The people of Moon Colony one who long for Statehood
- Winner: Mitt Romney, who can finally do that pivoty, etch-a-sketchy thing.
Leave your list of winners and losers in the comment thread….
Drinking Liberally — Seattle
It’s May Day today, and that calls for a celebration. So you can go all Frenchy-foreigny and imbibe in the pagan fertility celebration or get out your inner-Communist and celebrate International Workers’ Day. (Oh…and if you’re an anarchists, go fuck yourself.)
Either way, when you get done mating/marching, please join us for an evening of political conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm, but a few folks show up earlier for dinner.
Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? There are DLs meeting all around Washington state, including in the Tri-Cities tonight, the Tacoma chapter on Thursday, and South Bellevue, Olympia, and Yakima next Monday.
With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter close by.
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