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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 5/4/12, 11:57 pm

Thom: Is Libertarianism dead?

Sam Seder: North Carolina’s anti-gay amendment will ‘protect the Caucasian race’ says Senator’s wife.

David Letterman does Stephen Colbert.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Gay marriage will lead to White extinction.

Foxx in the school house:

Ann Telnaes: Blind leading the blind.

Sam Seder: Tens of thousands occupy May Day, Reuters calls it a ‘dud’.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Some Tea Party hypocrite.

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, NJ edition.

Thom: Some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Stephen: Paul Ryan’s Christian budget cuts.

Alyona: John Yoo is off the hook for torture.

Greenman: Wind power at the crossroads.

Actual Audio: Boehner versus women.

Thom: War criminal John Yoo walks.

Young Turks: The bin Laden letters.

Occupy May Day.

This week in unnecessary censorship.

Campaign 2012:

  • Forward.
  • Suszy Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Newt’s out! We’re left with Mitt!.
  • Mark Fiore: Obama, bin Laden, and Mitt.
  • Jon on the Mormonness of Mitt’s religion.
  • OFA: Swiss Bank Account.
  • Pap: Republicans are stuck with Mitt. Now what?
  • Jen: The road to the White House runs through Virginia.
  • How to stand behind Mitt.
  • Stephen: Mitt and Newt BFF
  • Newt isn’t Mitt’s biggest supporter.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Heartland Institute for “Climate change is for Unibombers.

Jen: Republican War on women is real.

Jonathan Mann: This is why I march.

Thom: Exposing the biggest, most corrupt organization ever.

Daily Show: The oppression of Missouri gun owners.

Pap and Sen. Boxer: Republican War on Women.

Republicans, get in my vagina:

Sam Seder: The rich would rather give up American passport than pay taxes.

Alyona: Rubio’s DREAM Act, more like ‘Nightmare Act’.

White House: West Wing Week.

The Strange Detention of Daniel Chong:

  • Young Turks: DEA leaves student to drink his own urine
  • Sam Seder: Forced to drink his own urine….
  • Young Turks: Daniel Chong found meth in cell.

Jon on bin Laden’s letters.

Romney, Bachmann, McDonnell: Turning Back the Clock on Women’s Health.

Thom: Some more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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We won’t have Newt Gingrich to kick around anymore

by Darryl — Wednesday, 5/2/12, 4:42 pm

When Newt Gingrich first hinted at running for President in 2010, I knew it would be fun. Alas, fun has run its course.

Now, after a week of “pre-suspensions,” Newt has gone and quit us. And now that Newt has quit, he leaves behind a set of winners and losers:

  • Loser: Newt’s creditors, who will likely be bilked out of millions.
  • Loser: Newt’s “Think Tanks” and Not-Lobbying Organizations that have been driven to bankruptcy.
  • Loser: Callista Gingirch, who has lost her one and only opportunity to be upgraded from “Third Lady”…
  • Loser: Newt’s publisher, who must now put black dots on the remaining inventory of his books before tossing them into the bargain bin. Although, in balance, they probably had an EXCELLENT run of it so far, with a massive donor-sponsored book tour, complete with Guvment-provided security, and MSM-subsidized publicity.
  • Loser: The people of Puerto Rico who aspire to Statehood
  • Loser: The people of Moon Colony one who long for Statehood
  • Winner: Mitt Romney, who can finally do that pivoty, etch-a-sketchy thing.

Leave your list of winners and losers in the comment thread….

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 5/1/12, 4:24 pm

DLBottleIt’s May Day today, and that calls for a celebration. So you can go all Frenchy-foreigny and imbibe in the pagan fertility celebration or get out your inner-Communist and celebrate International Workers’ Day. (Oh…and if you’re an anarchists, go fuck yourself.)

Either way, when you get done mating/marching, please join us for an evening of political conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm, but a few folks show up earlier for dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? There are DLs meeting all around Washington state, including in the Tri-Cities tonight, the Tacoma chapter on Thursday, and South Bellevue, Olympia, and Yakima next Monday.

With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter close by.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 4/27/12, 11:57 pm

Sam Seder: Teleprompter obsessed Marco Rubio FUCKS UP.

Stephen: The bridge between liberals and conservatives.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican—Maine edition.

Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani: a match made in heaven.

Romney versus Reality: Student loan edition.

The Partisans: Obama’s campaign still trying to find a slogan.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Sam Seder: Romney’s foreign policy adviser talks Obama and…Czechoslovakia???

Buzz 60: White House Correspondents Dinner and Bin Laden Death.

Young Turks: Tony Perkins (Family Research Council) is a Birther?!?

Jay Inslee goes on the radio and drinks:

Mark Fiore: Cyber-Snuggly.

Stephen on Obama’s slow-jammed news.

Thom: The best Democracy money can buy.

The candidates test some slogans.

Young Turks: Gov. Phil Bryant (R-MS) says Dems want to kill children.

Liberal Viewer: Analysis of Arizona anti-immigration law.

Sam Seder: The biggest beneficiaries of our corrupt politics.

Alyona: What would Jesus cut?

Ad: Empower, Act, Organize.

WA Lands Commissioner Peter Goldmark answers some questions.

Jon on Mitt’s Reboot.

More Skirmishes in the GOP War on Women™:

  • Maddow: The Republican i>War on Women™
  • Young Turks: Gov. Rick Scott (R-FL) defunds rape crisis centers
  • Sam Seder: What if it extended beyond the War on Women?
  • Maddow: Rape and incest survivors find no quarter in VA.
  • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Gov. Rick Scott (R-FL) defunds rape victims.
  • Ann Telnaes: GOP and the Violence Against Women Act
  • Maddow: GOP cuts funding for female reproductive health and denies War on Women™

Young Turks: What will Romney and Republicans run on in 2012 now that bin Laden is dead?

Jon on the Secret Service prostitution scandal.

Alyona: The Walmart bribery scandal.

Attacking Obama as a celebrity.

Buzz 60: Romney wins five and Obama slow jams with Fallon.

ONN: Obama approval down afterphotos surface of him eating big sandwich all alone.

Marco Rubio has the perfect VP moment.

Mitt in the tank for Big Oil.

Newsy: Student loan interest rate cuts causes controversy.

Kimmel with another episode of Unnecessary Censorship.

Bill Clinton on being “The Decider”:

Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Who is Mitt Romney listening to?

Pap: The Anti-Government crowd is trying to dismantle public schools.

Alyona: The Walmart bribery scandal.

White House: West Wing Week.

Ann Telnaes: The Elephant in the room.

Young Turks: ALEC and for-profit colleges.

Alyona: Welcome to the Drone Age.

Jon on N.C. issues.

Sam Seder: Don’t let Obama take our guns!

Liberal Viewer: FOX News fraud on voter fraud and voter ID.

Romney versus Reality: Global Edition.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Rob McKenna’s persecution complex

by Darryl — Wednesday, 4/25/12, 3:35 pm

Today at Slog Goldy published this stunning audio exchange between gubernatorial candidate and state AG Rob Mckenna (R) and a youth worker:

Woman: “Mr. Mckenna.”

McKenna: “Yes.”

Woman: “What’s your stance on the Reproductive Parity Act?”

McKenna: “My stance is I’m a lawyer for the State. You can turn that recorder off if you’d like, instead of trying to bushwhack me. It’s not really very polite is it? Do you think you’re honest?”

Woman: “I’m just wondering…”

McKenna: “Do you think you’re being honest?”

Woman: “Huh?”

McKenna: “Are you being honest? Or are you just not going to answer my question?”

Woman: “I’m a youth worker who’s wondering…”

McKenna: “You’re not being honest. Forget it.”

Woman: “Okay…”

McKenna: “You’re just trying to gain a political advantage, sorry. Why don’t you go get a job?”

What. The. Fuck.

As it happens, the youth worker is gainfully employed but what, on earth, would cause such a vile response from someone who want’s to be our next Governor?

Somebody feeling a little persecuted?

This isn’t the first time McKenna has decloaked and revealed this bizarre psychological mindset. Remember The Great Cupcake Escape? Think about the petty black-listing of The Stranger.

How can we understand McKenna propensity to feel persecuted? I think it’s best explained this way.

McKenna may well hold some truly moderate convictions–it’s hard to tell, because he has gotten quite good at weaseling his “answer” into something that is universally non-offensive. Whether moderate or not, what Rob Mckenna most certainly isn’t is non-partisan.

The worst kept secret among Olympia Republicans is that McKenna is a deeply partisan Republican. And, thanks to the weaselly answers, this fact is one of the best kept secrets from most Washingtonians.

For this reason, McKenna perpetually feel like the victim, always in danger of being trapped by the evil majority. And he isn’t going to go down easily.

What we are left with is a skeleton of a man who is caught in a perpetual cycle of self-spin. That Governor’s mansion is within his grasp, but he feels danger, and has a sense that his enemies are plotting against him….

Even when it is just a young woman, concerned about losing her reproductive rights, asking a simple question.

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 4/24/12, 4:47 pm

DLBottleIt’s Tuesday and there are five G.O.P. primary contests a happenin’ tonight–Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. We are going to treat them with all the dignity and respect they command.

Yawwwwwn!

Okay…now that that’s finished, please join us for an evening of conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

Seattle DL meets every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. We begin at 8:00pm, but some folks show up earlier for dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? There are also meetings of the Tri-Cities and Bellingham chapters this evening. The Burien chapter meets on Wednesday, and the Woodinville chapter meets on Thursday.

With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 4/20/12, 11:57 pm

Thom: Catholics to Rep. Ryan, “Hands off our religion”.

Maddow: Debunktion Junction.

An obituary for facts.

Greenman: Weird winter, mad March (part I) :

ALEC:

  • Jen Granholm: ALEC as matchmaker.
  • Young Turks: ALEC begs right-wing blogs for help.
  • Pap: The ALEC exodus.

Thom: Some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Maddow: Rob McKenna denying he is Scott Walker.

Stephen spars with Cornel West, Tavis Smiley over poverty.

Sam Seder: 30-year old climate changes predictions prove accurate.

Maddow: Democracy under threat in Michigan.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

The G.O.P. Primary Reality Show:

  • Young Turks: Michele Bachmann on “Obama waiving a ‘tar baby’ around”.
  • Ann Telnaes: Rick Santorum gets the perfect gift for a 3-year-old—A lifetime membership to the NRA.
  • Maddow: Romney before he shakes the etch-a-sketch
  • Romney’s world view.
  • Jon on Mitt.
  • Stephen: Romney searches for “Mr. Right”
  • Maddow: Romney begins reinvention without pause
  • John McCain on Mitt Romney.
  • Thom: Voter fraud finally found! Guess who?
  • Mitt Romney: “It’s been fun getting to know Ted Nugent”
  • Ted Nugent stumps for Mitt Romney.
  • Young Turks: DNC’s Ted Nugent Mitt Romney attack ad.
  • Susie Sampson: Romney versus Obama.
  • Young Turks: Romneys’ dancing horse.
  • Bill Maher: Mitt Romney—the least interesting man in the world.
  • Sportsman protest Romney’s flip floppery.
  • Sam Seder: Ann Romney claims dog loved the ride on the roof.
  • Stephen Colbert on Mitt’s humor events
  • Young Turks: Is Romeny’s ‘Obama isn’t Working’ banner racist?
  • What else is Mitt Romney hiding?

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Rep. Fox on intolerance of student loans.

Thom: the slanted Sunday morning talking head shows.

T-Mobile rally in Bellevue WA.

Laura Ruderman supports Obama and the Buffett Rule.

Jon on the Buffett Rule.

Stephen: Mexican bologna.

The Republican War on Women™:

  • It’s yer Right!
  • Actual Audio: What Mitt will do for women.
  • Ann Romney’s fishy explanation.
  • Mitt Romney and Mitch Daniels: Where will women go?
  • Sam Seder with Digby: War on Moms, John Derbyshire, and Commies in Congress
  • Jon on Colombian prostitutes and stay-at-home moms.
  • Mitt Romeny and Tom Corbett: Too extreme for Women.

Thom: The Dem Party doesn’t need phony Dems.

Jimmy Kimmel’s week in unnecessary censorship.

Joe Biden on why you should get involved.

Ann Telnaes: Killing hearts and minds.

I Made America: HAPPY 4-20 from Washington, Jefferson & Gingrich.

Mark Fiore: The Jesus budget.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Rep. Paul Ryan accuses bishops of lying.

Young Turks: The Catholic Church decides to crucify a Jew:

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Social Security Works Washington coalition: Save Social Security by scrapping the cap.

ONN: Eric Cantor tossed by bucking Mitch McConnell and other news of the week.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Rob McKenna wants you to know

by Darryl — Wednesday, 4/18/12, 4:36 pm

Rob McKenna wants you to know that he isn’t Scott Walker. Via Politico (audio link added):

Rob McKenna…told a gathering of Puget Sound Carpenters last week that he’ll strive for a “positive relationship between labor and management,” even lamenting the agenda pursued by Walker.
“We need to have a good strong relationship between labor and management in this state,” McKenna said at the April 11 meeting, according to the audio that was secretly recorded. “Now unfortunately because of a couple of governors — particularly Scott Walker — everyone thinks that someone who’s going to be a Republican governor, they’re going to be Scott Walker. I’m not Scott Walker. This is not Wisconsin. This is Washington state.”

You know who else isn’t Scott Walker? Gov. John Kasich (R) of Ohio, also elected in 2010 who, a year later, signed Senate Bill 5 that limited collective bargaining for public employee unions.

And who else isn’t Scott Walker? Two-term Governor Mitch Daniels (R) of Indiana who, on day one of his first term used executive orders to decimate public employee unions.

Who are other not-Scott Walkers, that have waged war on collective bargaining, public employee unions, and labor in general? Govs. Rick Scott (R-FL), Jan Brewer (R-AZ), Rick Snyder (R-MI), Bobby Jindal (R-LA), and Chris Christie (R-NJ).

Who else isn’t Scott Walker? Scott Fucking Walker, that’s who.

Here he is, just a week before the 2010 election, being interviewed by the Oshkosh Northwestern‘s editorial board (video here):

Editorial Board Member: Before, we were talking about state employees contributing to their plan, paying their share of the pension plan. Collective bargaining come into that?

Walker: Yep (nodding yes)

Editorial Board Member: How do you get that negotiated and accepted by the state employee unions?

Walker: You still have to negotiate it. I did that at the county as well.

McKenna is asking us to trust that he will not engage in the same ALEC-fueled agenda we’ve seen coming from his fellow Republicans in Ohio, Indiana, Florida, Arizona, Michigan, Louisiana, Maine, and New Jersey. Really, Rob? After claiming to be the co-creator of the Teabaggy lawsuit to overturn the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act? After refusing to represent state Commissioner of Public Lands Peter Goldmark in a lawsuit to protect public lands? After making a closed-door campaign promise before an anti-light rail group that he would work to find ways to kill light rail to the East Side?

Get real.

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Goldy’s sex scandal

by Darryl — Tuesday, 4/17/12, 4:30 pm

It’s about damn time that Obama got himself a bona fide (so to speak) sex scandal. This one did not involve Obama making use of a “human humidor” (as folk musician Eric Schwartz once put it).

Yeah…well now our very own (well…The Stranger’s own) Goldy has a sex scandal…kind-of. The Stranger’s Cienna Madrid has the scoop:

Yesterday, my suspicions were aroused when I overheard Goldy (of all people) bragging about having “sexual relations” with a state senator. The pool’s just not that large, folks.

And denials from Goldy….

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 4/17/12, 3:16 pm

DLBottleGet those taxes in! And then join us tonight for another evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

Seattle DL meets every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. We begin at 8:00pm, but some folks show up earlier for dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? There is also a Tuesday meeting of the Tri-Cities chapter. And the Tacoma chapter meets on Thursday.

With 234 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

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World view

by Darryl — Monday, 4/16/12, 2:41 pm

Six months ago, Florida Governor Rick Scott had plans to make Florida a “better” state by de-funding state higher education programs in fields like psychology and anthropology:

“Is it a vital interest of the state to have more anthropologists? I don’t think so.”

Scotts “War on Anthropology” was based on an incorrect assumption that there is no job market for anthropologists:

…[T]he difference in job growth between [math and science] jobs and anthropologists is slight. Anthropology jobs are expected to grow by 28 percent, while computer software engineers and environmental engineering technician jobs will grow by 30 percent.

“The expected growth isn’t that much different in terms of percentage,” said Chris Cunningham, an analyst with the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And then there is this from today’s news:

Jim Yong Kim was chosen to be president of the World Bank, becoming the first physician and Asian-American to head the lender after emerging markets failed to rally around a challenger to the U.S. monopoly on the job.

The World Bank board of directors said today it chose Dartmouth College President Kim to succeed Robert Zoellick, whose term ends June 30. A specialist in HIV/AIDS with a Ph.D. in anthropology, Kim, 52, faced rival bids from Nigeria and Colombia.

Be warned, Gov. Scott, anthropologists will rule the World… Bank.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 4/13/12, 11:57 pm

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Sen Chuck’s tweet.

Ed and Pap: Stop supporting ALEC members.

I didn’t speak up.

Mark Fiore: Dogboy and Mr. Dan in “Restrain Yourself”.

Sam Seder: Michele Bachmann says uninsured choose to not have health insurance!.

Maddow does Bill Maher.

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Ann Telnaes: The Catholic leadership’s selective use of duct tape.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Pennsylvania edition:

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Rep. West’s imaginary Communist Conspiracy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thom: Rep. West, not so many Communists…plenty of Fascists.

Young Turks: Ex-gay’ therapy advocate now says his theory about gay choice was wrong.

ONN: Dems say Obama has dicked us around for four years…”it’s our turn”.

White House: West Wing Week.

The Second Half of the G.O.P. Gladiatorial Games:

  • Ron Paul takes potshots at Mitt, Newt, and Santorum.
  • A match made in heaven.
  • Mitt Romney is sooooooo gay!
  • Buzz 60: Obama and Biden release their taxes. Romney??
  • Jen Granholm: Romney is out of touch?
  • What if Romney loses??
  • Romney should listen to Lilly Ledbetter.
  • Mitt Romney: Memories to last a lifetime
  • Stephen on Mitt’s possible running mates.
  • How Mitt Romeny got his tax extension:
  • Mitt chats with Sean Hannity about his horse breeds, ties.
  • Ann Telnaes: Santorum quits.
  • Jon says “Goodbye” to Rick Santorum.

Thom: Patriotic millionaires WANT more taxes.

Young Turks: FAUX News mole is fired.

Is Herman Cain trying to sell chicken-topped pizza?

Sam Seder: Health Care and the Supreme Court.

Stephen on Sen. Chuck Grassley’s twitter feed.

Liberal Viewer: Is broccoli like health insurance?

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Young Turks: Obama calls Kanye a jackass…AGAIN!

The Republican War on Women™:

  • Maddow: War on Women at the NRA.
  • Actual Audio: Reince Priebus & the War Against Women
  • Thom on the Snatch project.
  • Stephen on the Democrat War on Women
  • Sam Seder: Women are just like livestock says recently passed Georgia bill.
  • Jen Gramholm with Nancy Pelosi: Women should run for office and ‘kick open the door’.
  • Young Turks: Sarah Silverman’s abortion joke.
  • Alyona debunks the BS about 92.3% of jobs lost by women.

Maddow: Gun violence.

Jen Granholm: The creators of Texts From Hillary.

Sam Seder: Conservatives trust in science declining.

Jon on CNN’s new branded news segments.

Young Turks: Cory Booker heroic fire rescue.

Ann Telnaes: Stand your ground laws.

Kimmel: Unnecessary Censorship.

Stephen does Michelle Obama.

Thom: Fracking earthquakes.

Charging Zimmerman:

  • Jon covers the Zimmerman charging.
  • Liberal Viewer: Will Hannity be a witness against Zimmerman?
  • Ed and Pap: Self-centered Hannity making Trayvon murder all about Hannity.
  • Young Turks: “Stand Your Ground” law in Florida is a ‘classic case’ of NRA lobbying.
  • Thom: Zimmerman had the rules of engagement wrong.
  • Jon on outrage over NBC’s selective editing.
  • Young Turks: Hannity defends Zimmerman.

Newark Mayor Cory Booker saves neighbor from fire.

Pap: Who is responsible for high gas prices.

Remember Big oil tax breaks?

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Drug testing Child Support Recipients!?!

Young Turks: Obama vs. Bush on income equality.

Shit Rep. Allen West says.

Thom: So much more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Poll Analysis: Obama still dominates Romney

by Darryl — Friday, 4/13/12, 2:52 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 347 electoral votes Mean of 191 electoral votes

It’s settled then, Mitt Romney is the inevitable nominee who will carry the torch for Republicans into the general election. So let’s see how he’s doing against President Barack Obama.

Here are the new polls that have been released since my previous analysis two weeks ago:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA SurveyUSA 29-Mar 02-Apr 1995 2.2 61.6 30.6 O+31.0
CO PPP 05-Apr 07-Apr 542 4.2 53 40 O+13
IN Bellwether Research 26-Mar 28-Mar 503 5.0 40 49 R+9
ME Maine PRC 31-Mar 02-Apr 993 3.1 54.6 37.0 O+17.6
ME1 Maine PRC 31-Mar 02-Apr 522 4.3 60.5 33.0 O+27.5
ME2 Maine PRC 31-Mar 02-Apr 471 4.5 48.0 41.4 O+6.6
MA Rasmussen 09-Apr 09-Apr 500 4.5 51 40 O+11
MA Boston Globe 21-Mar 27-Mar 544 4.2 49 33 O+16
MI EPIC/MRA 31-Mar 03-Apr 600 4.0 48 40 O+8
MT Rasmussen 02-Apr 02-Apr 500 4.5 40 49 R+9
NV PPP 29-Mar 01-Apr 553 4.2 51 43 O+8
NH U NH 21-Mar 27-Mar 544 4.2 49 33 O+16
NJ Quinnipiac 03-Apr 09-Apr 1607 2.4 49 40 O+9
NJ Eagleton-Rutgers 21-Mar 27-Mar 601 4.3 58 31 O+27
NM Rasmussen 03-Apr 03-Apr 500 4.5 52 36 O+16
NY Siena 01-Apr 04-Apr 808 3.4 60 35 O+25
NY Quinnipiac 28-Mar 02-Apr 1597 3.0 56 33 O+23
NC Rasmussen 10-Apr 10-Apr 500 4.5 44 46 R+2
NC PPP 04-Apr 07-Apr 975 3.1 49 44 O+5
PA Muhlenberg 23-Mar 01-Apr 492 5.0 45 40 O+5
VA Roanoke College 25-Mar 05-Apr 591 4.0 40.1 45.9 R+5.8

Many of these polls are entirely unsurprising: California, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and New York. Maine isn’t a surprise either. But, for the first time this election season, we have Maine Congressional District data that show Obama on track to win all of the state’s electoral votes.

Obama still leads in Pennsylvania, as he has for the previous six polls going back to early February. The Southwest swing states are sticking with Obama, with good leads for him in Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado. These are states that Bush won in 2004 and Obama won in 2008. Michigan shows no love for a native son—Obama keeps the lead.

In North Carolina we have a PPP poll that gives Obama a +5 lead and a Rasmussen poll that gives Obama a -2 loss. Romney dominates in Montana; and, he leads in Indiana and Virginia, states that went for Obama in 2008. This is our first poll from Indiana, by the way.

The previous analysis showed Obama leading Romney by and average of 347 to 191 electoral votes and a 100% probability of winning an election held then.

Now, after a Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections using the state head-to-head polls, Obama still wins all 100,000. Obama’s average electoral vote total is still 347 to Romney’s 191.

The effective end of the Republican primary this week should mark a change in the dynamics of this race. Expect Romney’s chances to improve considerably as new polls roll in. The full effect may not be seen for another month (depending on the frequency and diversity of polling).

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Quotable

by Darryl — Friday, 4/13/12, 12:41 am

How many of you all have a Swiss bank account?

— Vice President Joe Biden countering Mitt Romney’s claim that President Barack Obama is “out of touch.”

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The Seattle Subway

by Darryl — Wednesday, 4/11/12, 4:38 pm

This week’s Stranger has an awesome story by Dominic Holden on the Seattle Subway proposal:

A group of transit nerds, working with allies in local government, are developing a way to do it and do it fast. With lines above and below grade (more than half of the New York City subway is aboveground), the Seattle Subway would transport riders from downtown to Ballard in nine minutes, according to estimates for modern subway technology. Travel from downtown to West Seattle would take 10 minutes—no matter the traffic. Trains could arrive every five minutes.

Here’s how it would work: Seattle voters would take advantage of the City Transportation Authority, created by the state legislature in 2002, which was intended to fund the monorail. That authority still allows voters to establish a motor vehicle excise tax of up to 2.5 percent for “a transportation system that utilizes train cars running on a guideway.” An initial vote as soon as this November or next year could pay for relatively inexpensive analysis and design work for the first line—probably to Ballard and West Seattle. A subsequent vote would pay for constructing the first line. Repeat as necessary until that map you see is complete.

“It’s a great concept,” says former mayor Greg Nickels, who was integral to building the light-rail lines we have. He agrees the current construction schedule for light rail is “frustratingly slow.”

Read the whole thing…it’s good, thought-provoking stuff.

So…Dominic Holden is now pro-tunnel?!?

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