Rachael Maddow has a pretty remarkable story here….
Sub-SuperTuesday Liveblogging
Why the hell not? I mean, soon we won’t have Newt or Santorum to kick the shit out of anymore.
Newt is already out of the picture. But Lil’ Ricky Santorum keeps on Mitt like a bad case of Giardia. Cesspool ensues.
The polls close in Wisconsin, D.C. and Maryland at 5:00 PM PDT. That’s now!
5:04: It’s all tied up in all three states, with 0% reporting…
5:06: I got a call this afternoon from my favorite neice, Maria Elaine Valdez Holman. “Guess what, uncle Darryl, I voted today,” she said with some excitement. My guess is that most 18 year-olds don’t get quite so excited about voting, but Maria has become quite passionate about politics. She is really looking forward to voting Gov. Scott Walker’s ass out of office. Needless to say, she got her voting issues resolved, but not without some considerable effort, thanks to Walker.
5:32: With less than 1% reporting, we have some results for Maryland:
- Romney, 53.2%
- Santorum, 26.6%
- Gingrich, 10.4%
- Paul, 8.3%
5:41: With 1% reporting in Maryland, CNN boldly calls it for the Mittster.
5:42: We just got a teevee turned to CNN at the Ale House (that can be hard to do during Basketball season, and there is a Women’s final on tonight). Anyway, it seems I was misunderinformed…polls in Wisconsin haven’t closed yet. I believe they close at 6:00 PM PDT.
6:00: Polls are closing in Wisconsin. Wolf Blitzer puts his “intensity” face on.
CNN projection based on exit polls:
- Romney, 43%
- Santorum, 35%
- Gingrich, 11%
- Paul, 6%
6:02: NPR points out that turn-out may be much lower than expected in Wisconsin. That’s bad news for Scott Walker. The G.O.P. voters are simply not all that engaged.
6:06: CNN projects that Mitt Romney wins in D.C. What took them so long…I mean, Santorum didn’t even make the ballot. But I’m grateful we have that settled.
6:07: Dear CNN…When you have a text insert saying, “Santorum to speak soon” up for 45 minutes, you ought to be asking yourself…”Are we being played by the Santorum campaign?”
6:09: CNN has Ari Fleischer on the teevee. Without sound, I have no idea what he is saying. But I’m guessing he is lying–after all, his lips are moving.
6:14: Finally…after almost an hour of pushing it…Santorum is speaking. All smiles and waiving signs. This looser is on fucking Mars! Oh…wait. He’s giving the speech from Mars, PA.
6:17: CNN banner: “Breaking News: Awaiting Wisconsin Results”. That’s not fucking breaking news. We have been awaiting these results for our entire fucking life!
[Read more…]
Drinking Liberally — Seattle
Please join us tonight for another evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. Tonight’s primaries are in Wisconsin, Maryland, and DC.
Seattle DL meets every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our regular starting time is 8:00pm, but feel free to show up before then to catch the earliest election returns.
Naturally, we’ll be doing a bit of live blogging of the results.
Can’t make it to Seattle? There is also a meeting tonight of the Tri-Cities chapter, and the Tacoma chapter meets this Thursday.
With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.
Headline of the day
US Supreme Court Affirms Warrantless Ass Searches
Who else…but Goldy.
Goldy goes on to explain that Washington has laws that require a warrant for incarceratory cavity probes.
The gist of the Supreme Court ruling is that jailers have the right to invasive searches without warrants because of the heightened security environment of a jail or prison.
Yet…somehow, lacking warrantless ass searches, Washington state jails and prisons manage to not spiral into utter chaos.
Maybe it’s the climate.
Poll Analysis: Inslee 38%, McKenna 34%
A new Grove Insight poll of the gubernatorial race between Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-1) and Washington state AG Rob McKenna (R) shows Inslee with a +2% lead over McKenna. The poll surveyed 500 likely Washington voters (M.O.E. 4.4%) from the 26th to 28th of March.
Before doing my usual Monte Carlo analysis of the results, I want to point out that with this poll and the previous Grove Insight poll, I debated whether or not to analyze the results. One of my rules for polls is to, “ignore polls released by party organizations or candidates.” The issue is that campaigns and party organizations commission polls all the time, but we rarely get to see the polling results. When they are released, there is a strategic reason. Therefore, including such polls can lead to a biased overall interpretation, even if the polls themselves are completely honest and accurate.
Both of the Grove Insight polls are, apparently, commissioned by the SEIU. Even though SEIU isn’t part of the campaign or the Democratic party, SEIU has recently endorsed Inslee and they obviously share elements of their politics. I really don’t know if Grove Insight would have released these results if they had been bad for Inslee. It is a close call, but I opted to go with publishing an analysis.
Of the 500 respondents, there were only 360 who had a preference for either Inslee or McKenna, so the effective margin of error is actually bigger than the 4.4% given in the release. A Monte Carlo analysis that held a million simulated elections gave Inslee a win 762,761 times and McKenna a win 225,707 times.
The analysis suggests that, if the election was today, Inslee would have a 77.2% probability of beating McKenna. Note that by statistical conventions we would call this a tie because the winning percentage doesn’t exceed 95%. Here is the distribution of election outcomes resulting from the analysis:
This makes three consecutive polls that contradict the narrative that McKenna is the front-runner:
Although I want input from another poll or two, it is beginning to look like this race is flipping—gone from McKenna having a hefty lead, to a tie. If correct, it’s pretty remarkable is how fast things have turned around….
[The most recent analysis in this race can be found here.]
Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Roy Zimmerman: Texas verse of “Vote Republican”.
Medicare, Affordable Care, and Health Care:
- Actual audio: Mitt versus health care.
- Stephen on the death of Obamacare.
- Newsy: Do oral arguments matter?
- Thom: SCOTUS, POTUS and budget for all.
- Ed and Pap: The GOP plan…if you get sick, you are going to die!
- Ann Telnaes: The wrong health care debate.
- Jon on SCOTUS and Obamacare.
- Mitt and Paul Ryan:
- Mark Fiore: Shoot-em-up Charlie discovers ALEC.
- Ann Telnaes: The best health care money can buy
- Darcy Burner on Medicare.
- Pap: Republicans misrepresent basics of Affordable Care Act.
Jennifer Granholm: Outrage over the war on women is deafening.
Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Sen. Rand Paul shills for Big Oil.
V.P. Biden says “Thank you, Dr. Pepper” to Dr. Paper.
Stephen on Obama’s secret plot to not take away your guns.
The G.O.P. CrazyFest:
- Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Romney claims ‘Russia is #1 geo-political foe’ ?!
- Maddow: Romney and Santorum oblivious in Wisconsin.
- Mitt Romeny: Wrong for women.
- Thom: Does Santorum have pink balls?
- Young Turks: Santorum hates pink balls.
- Stephen has some stand-up material for Mitt.
- Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Abortion and devils and Santorum, oh my!
- Crazy Alert: Romney’s cars are Movin’ On Up.
- Mitt: Not ready to lead.
- Sam Seder: Did Santorum almost call Obama the N-word?
- Maddow: Mitt and taxes and foreign policy weaknesses.
- Big Oil and Mitt Romney.
- Young Turks: Did Santorum almost call Obama the N-word?
- Jim Norton on Rick Santorum et al.
- Jon: Santorum and Romney versus the media.
- Young Turks: A tribute to Newt Gingrich
Greenman: What we knew about global warming in 1982.
Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
White House: West Wing Week:
Jon: Obama’s hot mic gaffe.
Sam Seder: It isn’t just phone hacking for Newscorp anymore.
Death Sentence for Trayvon:
- Sam Seder: The demonetization of Trayvon Martin.
- Jasiri X: A Song for Trayvon (h/t Howie in Seattle).
- Young Turks: The Trayvon Martin smear campaign.
- Brett: Hoodies and hairpieces.
- Red State Update: George Zimmerman’s Other 911 Calls:
- Sam Seder: Freedom unless you are wearing a Hoodie.
- Ed and Pap: Tea Party rushes to defend Trayvon Martin killer.
- Young Turks: George Zimmerman video analysis.
- Jon on the Media’s coverage of Trayvon Martin’s death
- Young Turks: A Hoodie for Trayvon Martin Gets Rep. Rush kicked out.
- Rep Bobby Rush removed from House floor for wearing hoodie (via TalkingPointsMemo).
Roy Zimmerman: Utah verse of “Vote Republican”.
Thom with The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Obama: Repeal subsidies for oil companies.
Liberal Viewer: FAUX News’ biased reporting on CA prisons.
Sam Seder: Dick Cheney has a heart.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Poll Analysis: Obama strengthens lead over Romney
Obama | Romney |
100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
Mean of 347 electoral votes | Mean of 191 electoral votes |
There have been fourteen new state head-to-head polls taken since my previous analysis of the race between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.
No big surprises in them. Obama leads Romney in the three classic swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania poll and Ohio (twice). Obama also leads in Virginia and three Wisconsin polls. On the other hand, Nebraska CD 2 has swing slightly in favor of Romney.
start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
AR | Talk Business-Hendrix College | 26-Mar | 26-Mar | 759 | 3.6 | 33.0 | 56.5 | R+23.5 |
CT | Quinnipiac | 14-Mar | 19-Mar | 1622 | 2.4 | 53 | 37 | O+16 |
FL | Quinnipiac | 20-Mar | 26-Mar | 1228 | 2.8 | 49 | 42 | O+7 |
MA | PPP | 16-Mar | 18-Mar | 936 | 3.2 | 58 | 35 | O+23 |
NE | PPP | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 1028 | 3.1 | 39 | 51 | R+12 |
NE1 | PPP | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 432 | — | 41 | 49 | R+8 |
NE2 | PPP | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 277 | — | 45 | 46 | R+1 |
NE3 | PPP | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 319 | — | 31 | 57 | R+26 |
NH | ARG | 15-Mar | 18-Mar | 557 | 4.2 | 48 | 41 | O+7 |
OH | Rasmussen | 26-Mar | 26-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 48 | 40 | O+8 |
OH | Quinnipiac | 20-Mar | 26-Mar | 1246 | 2.8 | 47 | 41 | O+6 |
OR | SurveyUSA | 14-Mar | 19-Mar | 1615 | 2.5 | 49.8 | 38.8 | O+11.0 |
PA | Quinnipiac | 20-Mar | 26-Mar | 1232 | 2.8 | 45 | 42 | O+3 |
VA | PPP | 20-Mar | 20-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 51 | 42 | O+9 |
WI | Rasmussen | 27-Mar | 27-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 52 | 41 | O+11 |
WI | Marist | 26-Mar | 27-Mar | 1400 | 2.6 | 52 | 35 | O+17 |
WI | Marquette Law School | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 707 | — | 48.2 | 43.2 | O+4.9 |
The previous analysis had Obama leading Romney by an average of 339 to 199 electoral votes. Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins all 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 347 to Romney’s 191 electoral votes.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
Reichert votes to end Medicare
In 2005, Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA-8) was one of only 21 Republicans to vote against House Resolution 639 that, essentially, authorized drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). HR-639 passed the house only to be killed in the Senate (thanks to a big show of leadership by Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA)).
Reichert has gotten a lot of mileage out of these types of “courageous” votes against his own party…but he shouldn’t. After all, Reichert stupidly admitted that his voting record was built on a strategy of keeping himself and Republicans in power—even on this very ANWR vote:
Sometimes the leadership comes to me and says, “Dave, we want you to vote a certain way.’ Now, they know I can do that over here, that I have to do that over here. In other districts, that’s not a problem, but here I have to be able to be very flexible in where I place my votes. Because the big picture here is, keep this seat, keep the majority, keep the country moving forward with Republican ideals…. Not the vote I place on ANWAR that you may not agree with, or the vote that I place on protecting salmon.”
With redistricting, Reichert finds himself moving from a very competitive district to a safe district. So today, when the House Republicans took a vote on the Ryan budget—you know, the one that would dismantle Medicare and replace it with a coupon system–how did Reichert vote?
He voted in favor of it (via Publicola):
Perhaps it’s because he’s in a safer Republican district now thanks to redistricting (and the only person running against him has raised just $12,000), but US Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA, 8 ), who has broken with his party on some high-profile and highly politicized votes in the past, stuck with his party today. (In the past, Reichert voted against his party to override President Bush’s veto of a children’s health care bill, voted for the employee non-discrimination act, i.e., for gay rights, voted with President Obama and the Democrats to extend emergency unemployment benefits, and, most dramatically, voted for the cap and trade bill.
Today, the liberated Congressman from the redrawn 8th (no more rich Microsoft liberals coming after him), voted for the controversial budget pushed by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) in a party-line 228-191 vote.
Last year, Reichert skipped this vote…not out of political strategy, but because his mother had just died after an 18-month bout with pancreatic cancer (and, no doubt, Medicare prevented another bankruptcy). His office suggests he would have voted for it with the caveat that:
I’ve heard from my constituents and share their concerns about reductions in Pell Grants for low-income students, oil drilling expansion in our wilderness, and how entitlement reform could affect seniors and those approaching retirement.
Today he really did vote for a extremist right-wing bill. Sure…this version is a bit less extreme than the previous version, but it is still extreme. Yes, this one lets Senior’s use their coupons to purchase their way into a Medicare-like system. (This particular modification came about with the assistance of Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR).) It’s still extreme.
The bottom line is that the bill gives tax breaks to the wealthy at the same time raising health care costs for Seniors by thousands of dollars a year. And it does lots of other bad things, like repealing key parts of “Obamacare” and cutting Pell Grants.
If this bill were to become law millions of Americans would be affected by loss of insurance, increased health care costs, uncertainty and bankruptcy.
As Publicola suggests, Riechert is free now—free from having to take strategic votes that appease his constituents against his conscience.
Reichert still represents the OLD 8th Congressional District. What his vote today did was tell many of his constituents (the soon-to-be ex-constituents from the liberal parts of the old 8th) to fuck-off. And why shouldn’t he? Yeah…as he said last year, he’s heard from them, he knows their concerns. But they no longer hold anything over him, so screw ’em.
Shit Santorum says
You’re not gonna use the pink ball. We’re not gonna let you do that. Not on camera. Friends don’t let friends use pink balls.
I’m pretty sure Rick prefers blue balls….
Romney etches to the right
No surprise, really:
While he is yet to campaign in Wisconsin, Mitt Romney worked the state’s Republican voters from Dallas on Wednesday, holding a “telephone town hall” in which he embraced Gov. Scott Walker’s labor policies, endorsed U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan’s House budget….
Got that?
- Romney endorses Walker’s anti-labor policies
- Romney endorses Ryan’s budget which will end the current Medicare program and replace it with “coupon care”
The problem for Romney is that these two positions taken together pretty much make him unelectable in a general election.
Romney is counting on being able to “hit the reset button”—start over in his political positioning—after winning the nomination.
Will it work in 2012? Can a campaign really erase history when access to video, audio, and print media has become so democratized? Or will truckloads of money succeed in buying a big case of collective amnesia?
Drinking Liberally — Seattle
Mercifully, there is no new episode of the Primary Reality Show this evening. But a certain case being argued before the Supreme Court will be to talk of the tavern.
So please join us tonight for an evening of jurisprudence under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. We’ll begin at our usual starting time of 8:00pm, but some folks will show up even earlier for dinner.
Can’t make it to Seattle? There are DLs meeting all around Washington state, including in the Tri-Cities and Bellingham tonight, Burien on Wednesday night, as well as Yakima and South Bellevue next Monday.
With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.
Tonight’s G.O.P. Entertainment Show: Lousiana
The polls close in a few minutes in Lousiana, and if the pre-election polling hold, Rick Santorum should win easily.
Tonight’s win is important for Santorum, because there is mostly bad news for him in the near future primary Schedule. A week from Tuesday will be a triple header of D.C, Maryland, and Wisconsin. I doubt Santorum can win any of these, unless Mitt’s Etch-a-sketch wound turns into full-blown political septicemia. And after that, we have a April 24 mini-Super Tuesday, with Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania. As it stands now, Romney should take all but Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania.
I’ll probably get dragged away from the computer for various thing, but have at it in the comment threads.
5:59 pm (PDT): There are 20 delegates up for grab in LA (46 total). They are’t very important for Santorum who probably cannot win on delegates anyway. He needs a outright slaughter with hopes that it will catalyze a big momentum change in his favor.
6:03: Results can be found here and here.
6:12: Here is a livestream from NBC. From what I can tell, both NBC and CNN have called it for Santorum.
6:30: Barack Obama seem to be taking the Democratic primary in Louisiana with 69.3% of the vote (0.4% reporting).
7:50: With 83.1% of precincts reporting, here is what we have:
- Santorum, 49.7%
- Romney, 25.9%
- Gingrich, 16.1%
- Paul, 6.1%
Santorum would get a “bragging rights” boost by getting over 50% and/or doubling Romney’s votes—perhaps the former will happen.
Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
Thom: Paul Ryan’s budget—most extreme corporate welfare.
Mark Fiore: iWhine.
Young Turks: Man sues Secret Service over Cheney “assault”.
White House: We the People — Your voice in our government.
Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Etch-a-Sketching:
- Some things you can’t shake off.
- Lawrence O’Donnell: Sketchy.
- Even Mitt Romney knows an Etch-a-sketch can’t erase his extreme positions
- Young Turks: The Etch-a-sketch disaster.
- Maddow: Mitt and lying:
- Mitt Romney: Unshakably Extreme.
- Newsy: Romney’s campaign stimulating jobs in Ohio.
- Sam Seder: The real Mitt Romney is an Etch-a-Sketch
- Mitt Romney’s bad day
President Obama nominates Dr. Jim Yong Kim for World Bank President.
Thom with even more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Greenman: Michael Mann’s hockey stick under oath.
Jon on Cable News.
Ann Telnaes: The Going-Nowhere strategy in Afghanistan.
The Republican Primary Jousting Contest:
- Young Turks: Is Rick Santorum Opus Dei?
- Ed: Romney gives George Bush credit for saving economy
- Actual Audio: Santorum versus Romney.
- Ann Telnaes: Santorum’s higher calling.
- Ed: Obama derangement syndrome.
Thom: Westboro Baptist Church’s Rush advertisement.
Health Reform in Action: One mother’s story:
Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Porn-con.
Ann Telnaes: Second anniversary of the Health Care law.
Young Turks: Five worst things about the G.O.P. Ryan budget.
Sam Seder: “Katherine Harris” talks Occupy, Joe the Plumber’s campaign & more!
ONN: Joad Cressbeckler denies he incited mob to drag Congressman through briar patch.
Newsy: Congress hires their relatives.
Thom: Why is Tennessee teaching creationism?
Greenman: The search forLord Monckton.
More Skirmishes in the Republican War on Women™:
- Mitt to Women: You’re on your own.
- Maddow: Idaho’s forced transvaginal ultrasound bill, and other news in the G.O.P. culture wars.
- Mitt Romney vows to get rid of Planned Parenthood
- What women need to know about Mitt Romney.
- Maddow: Governor Ultrasound.
- Young Turks: The War on Women.
Health care reform across the country.
Alyona: Worst Proposed Internet laws of 2012.
Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Young Turks: Ryan’s budget, Zimmerman defenders and other topics.
White House: West Wing Week.
Death by Hoodie:
- Young Turks: President Obama on Trayvon Martin.
- Alyona’s Tool Time: Geraldo ‘Hoodie’ killed Trayvon Martin.
- Sharpton: Trayvon could have been any one of our sons
- Olbermann and Prof. Turley: the danger of Florida’s ‘Stand Your Ground’ law
. - Young Turks: Trayvon Martin smear attempt by Glenn Beck’s web site.
- Sam Seder: Geraldo Rivera blame Hoodies for Trayvon Martin killing.
- Pap and Ed: Did police blow chance of conviction with Zimmerman?
- Newsy: Florida shooting putting gun laws in the spotlight.
- Alyona’s Fireside Friday: Trayvon Martin.
- Young Turks: TYT crew dress to die.
Ed: The return of Coupon Care.
Conversations with Valerie Plame and Joseph Wilson:
Maddow: Obama nominates true humanitarian for World Bank.
Jimmy Kimmel with some unnecessary censorship.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Poll Analysis: Obama still leads but Santorum does better than Romney
Obama | Santorum |
99.7% probability of winning | 0.3% probability of winning |
Mean of 329 electoral votes | Mean of 209 electoral votes |
There have been 17 new polls released since my last analysis of the state head-to-head polls with President Barack Obama against Rick Santorum:
start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | S | diff |
AZ | Rasmussen | 13-Mar | 13-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 44 | 45 | S+1 |
CT | Quinnipiac | 14-Mar | 19-Mar | 1622 | 2.4 | 55 | 35 | O+20 |
FL | Rasmussen | 13-Mar | 13-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 45 | 43 | O+2 |
ME | PPP | 02-Mar | 04-Mar | 1256 | 2.8 | 58 | 35 | O+23 |
MA | PPP | 16-Mar | 18-Mar | 936 | 3.2 | 61 | 29 | O+32 |
MO | Rasmussen | 14-Mar | 15-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 42 | 51 | S+9 |
NE | Rasmussen | 05-Mar | 05-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 37 | 49 | S+12 |
NH | ARG | 15-Mar | 18-Mar | 557 | 4.2 | 48 | 37 | O+11 |
NJ | Fairleigh Dickinson U | 05-Mar | 11-Mar | 800 | 3.5 | 54 | 33 | O+21 |
NM | Rasmussen | 14-Feb | 14-Feb | 500 | 4.5 | 55 | 37 | O+18 |
NY | Siena | 26-Feb | 29-Feb | 808 | 3.4 | 64 | 30 | O+34 |
NC | PPP | 08-Mar | 11-Mar | 804 | 3.5 | 49 | 44 | O+5 |
OR | SurveyUSA | 14-Mar | 19-Mar | 1615 | 2.5 | 49.3 | 39.5 | O+9.8 |
PA | PPP | 08-Mar | 12-Mar | 564 | 4.1 | 48 | 46 | O+2 |
PA | Quinnipiac | 07-Mar | 12-Mar | 1256 | 2.8 | 45 | 44 | O+1 |
VA | PPP | 20-Mar | 20-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 53 | 39 | O+14 |
VA | Quinnipiac | 13-Mar | 18-Mar | 1034 | 3.1 | 49 | 40 | O+9 |
The most interesting result is that Obama leads in both Pennsylvania polls—that is, in Santorum’s home state. Obama also has a small lead in Florida.
The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Santorum by a mean of 338 to 200 electoral votes, and a 100% probability of winning an election held then.
Today’s Monte Carlo analysis employing 100,000 simulated elections, gives Obama 99,695 wins to Santorum 305 wins (including the 45 ties). Obama receives (on average) 329 to Santorum’s 209 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would be expected to win with a 99.7% probability, Santorum would win with a 0.3% probability of winning.
Remarkably, Santorum is doing better against Obama than Mitt Romney was two days ago, where Obama had a 100% probability of winning with a mean of 339 to Romney’s 199 electoral votes.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
McKenna’s transportation agenda
Here are a few things we learn from gubernatorial candidate Rob McKenna based on this audio taken yesterday before Kemper Freeman’s Eastside Transportation Association:
- He is a “deep deep skeptic of bringing light rail across [the] I-90” floating bridge.
- He “isn’t even sure how it is going to work.”
- He doesn’t understand “fixed rail on a floating bridge.”
- Regardless of his lack of understanding, he “envisions it be shutting down [for] winds.” And this worries him.
- He believes Sound Transit is a “significantly unaccountable regional transportation body.”
- He believes uninformed voters were duped by Greg Nichols in 1998 over the first public vote.
- He definitively sides with opponents of light rail on I-90 saying, “we have lost the key battles ever since.”
- He isn’t sure how to move forward on stopping light rail on I-90 (because of votes and bonding issues), but he is sure he can work with light rail opponents on it.
I need to say this again: Should he be elected, Rob McKenna will be Washington state’s Scott Walker.
There’s a meme in the mainstream media that chalks up these comparisons of McKenna to Walker as “demonetization” (with a figurative roll of the eyes).
In some ways this is fair. After all, aside from McKenna’s single biggest political blunder—joining the A.G. lawsuit against the 2009 health care reform law—he’s been cautious. He has dodged talking policy stands on hot-button issues where his views are likely to be unpopular. I mean, we can be sure McKenna doesn’t like light rail, same-sex marriage, public employee unions, death with dignity, etc. When asked about these things, he dodges. He bullshits his way out of expressing his opinion. He offers little about what a Gov. McKenna would do about particular issues. And, apparently, the state’s media aren’t skillful enough to coax non-weaselly answers from him.
So, we are forced to make inferences by an occasional controversial statement and by the people he endorses. We read between the lines. We parse his weaselly answers to try and understand what he’s dodging. We accept that he is a Republican in a state where moderate Republicans are nearly extinct.
Now we have a new piece of evidence—something stronger than inference from a dodged answer. We’ve know for a long time that McKenna doesn’t like Sound Transit and doesn’t care for light rail. But this is more: Rob McKenna has, essentially, made a campaign promise to work with Kemper Freeman, Jr. and company to find ways of killing light rail to the East Side.
Seems like something Scott Walker would do.
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