|99.9% probability of winning||0.1% probability of winning|
|Mean of 326 electoral votes||Mean of 212 electoral votes|
My previous analysis of state head-to-head polls showed President Barack Obama leading Romney with a mean of 323 to 215 electoral votes. Obama had a 99.5% probability of winning; Romney had a 0.5% chance.
Six new polls have been released since then. I’ve also fixed a few minor errors (largely in older polls) thanks to some more help from Sam Minter:
That’s a rather blue collection of new polls.
Both of the current California polls have double-digit leads for Obama.
Michigan gives Obama a remarkable +14% lead over Romney. One has to go back eight polls, to November 2011, to find a poll in which Romney is leading. Obama has managed to turn Michigan around, from toss-up to solid Obama, over the past six months:
In Missouri, Obama has a meager +1% lead over Romney. Up to now, Missouri has given a small edge to Romney over Obama. My hunch is that further polling would put the state back into Romney territory. Here are the polls to date:
The new Washington poll puts Obama at +11% over Romney. Both current WA polls give Obama double digit leads.
We have six current polls in Wisconsin. And all but one goes to Obama. With today’s poll, the trend cannot be considered good news for Romney:
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,941 times and Romney wins 59 times (including the 13 ties). Obama gains three electoral votes for an average of 326 to Romney’s 212. If the election was held now, Obama would have a 99.9% probability of beating Romney, based on the polling data.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:
- 313 electoral votes with a 4.75% probability
- 322 electoral votes with a 4.40% probability
- 312 electoral votes with a 4.12% probability
- 323 electoral votes with a 4.03% probability
- 314 electoral votes with a 2.88% probability
- 315 electoral votes with a 2.31% probability
- 328 electoral votes with a 2.24% probability
- 342 electoral votes with a 2.22% probability
- 316 electoral votes with a 2.20% probability
- 324 electoral votes with a 2.07% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 99.9%, Romney wins 0.1%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 325.7 (18.0)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 212.3 (18.0)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 323 (295, 363)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 215 (175, 243)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|8||4||Votes||polls||Votes||Obama||Romney||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.