Survey USA released a new poll for the new WA first congressional district today. The poll of 456 voters likely to vote in the August primary, and 661 registered voters (for a general election match-up), was taken on the 29th and 30th of May, surveys the open congressional seat and more.
For the Washington primary, the top two winners are Republican John Koster and Democrat Darcy Burner. Burner leads the crowded Democratic field by +10%:
- John Koster (R) 46%
- Darcy Burner (D) 19%
- Undecided 16%
- Laura Ruderman (D) 6%
- Suzan DelBene (D) 4%
- Steve Hobbs (D) 4%
- Larry Ishmael (I) 4%
- Darshan Rauniyar (D) 1%
The sample size for the primary poll is rather small. Nevertheless, we can make some inference about who will be Koster’s opponent in November. Darcy Burner has a little over 1/2 the “votes” (88 of 173) among those who chose someone other than Koster. A Monte Carlo analyses gives Burner a 56.3% probability of advancing to the general election. There is a 43.7% chance that Ruderman, DelBene, Hobbs, Ishmael or Rauniyar will advance instead of Burner.
The not-so-good news for Democrats comes from the head-to-head results of each Democrat against Koster:
- Koster leads Burner 48% to 37%
- Koster leads DelBene 49% to 32%
- Koster leads Ruderman 49% to 32%
- Koster leads Hobbs 47% to 31%
- Koster leads Rauniyar 50% to 28%
In all cases, the poll results suggest that Koster has something over a 95% probability of winning. And that is not good news for Democrats.
There were a couple of other races that shed light on this poll. Mitt Romney leads President Obama in the district 45% to 44%. And Rob McKenna leads Jay Inslee in the district 52% to 38%. Wow…this is the same 1st district that I live in?!?
In fact, these numbers are so surprising that the election sleuths at Kos Elections (formerly Swing State Project) find the poll results implausible:
If you read a little further down, though, the poll’s credibility takes a major hit, when you see the presidential numbers: Romney leads Obama 45-44. This is a district that, adjusted for the new boundaries, went for Obama 56-42 over McCain. This is also the state’s median district (Obama went 57% in all of Washington in ’08), so Rob McKenna should probably be leading by a couple points in the gubernatorial race, but instead he’s up 52-38 over Jay Inslee. Either this sample is way off, or else Obama and Inslee are finding some way to get, say, 120% of the vote in WA-07 in statewide polls to compensate for such a steep falloff in Dem fortunes in the new 1st.
These are all good points. But I’d sure like to see some more independent polling for the district before I chalk this one up to being an outlier….