| Obama | Romney |
| 99.8% probability of winning | 0.2% probability of winning |
| Mean of 318 electoral votes | Mean of 220 electoral votes |
My analysis from last Friday showed President Barack Obama leading Romney with an average of 333 to 205 electoral votes, and a 99.9% probability of winning an election held now.
Over the last few days, a bunch of new state head-to-head polls have been released. In addition, I’ve learned about a couple of recent polls that I had missed. I owe a big thanks to Sam Minter, who also aggregates and analyzes state head-to-head polls in this race. Sam has spotted a couple of my errors over the past two months, and has let me know about some recent polls I was missing.
Here are the new polls added for today’s analysis:
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| FL | Quinnipiac | 15-May | 21-May | 1722 | 2.4 | 41 | 47 | R+6 |
| MA | Rasmussen | 07-May | 07-May | 500 | 4.5 | 56 | 35 | O+21 |
| MI | Glengariff Group | 10-May | 11-May | 600 | 4.0 | 45.1 | 39.5 | O+5.6 |
| NJ | Quinnipiac | 09-May | 14-May | 1582 | 2.5 | 49 | 39 | O+10 |
| NC | SurveyUSA | 18-May | 21-May | 524 | 4.4 | 44.5 | 45.2 | R+0.8 |
| OH | Quinnipiac | 02-May | 07-May | 1069 | 3.0 | 45 | 44 | O+1 |
| OK | SoonerPoll | 07-May | 10-May | 504 | 4.4 | 27 | 62 | R+35 |
| PA | Rasmussen | 21-May | 21-May | 500 | 4.5 | 47 | 41 | O+6 |
| PA | PPP | 17-May | 20-May | 671 | 3.8 | 50 | 42 | O+8 |
| TN | Vanderbilt Poll | 02-May | 09-May | 752 | 4.0 | 40 | 47 | R+7 |
| TX | U Texas | 07-May | 13-May | 511 | 4.3 | 35 | 55 | R+20 |
| VT | Castleton Poll | 07-May | 16-May | 607 | 4.0 | 59 | 28 | O+31 |
The bad news for Obama is the Florida poll that has Romney up by +6%. Romney has taken three of the last four polls in Florida, and would have a 91% probability of taking the state in an election now.
The other new results favorable to Romney come from red states. I should point out that Texas shows a remarkable +20 for Romney using the poll’s Likely Voter results. As DailyKos’ Steve Singiser points out, the definition the pollster used for likely voters is rather dubious. The poll’s registered voter results show a +8 lead for Romney. (I always take the likely voter over registered voter results but, either way, Romney will most likely take Texas.)
There is more bad than good news for Romney. First, he barely leads Obama (by 0.8%) in North Carolina. Over the past month, Obama and Romney have split the four NC polls. Right now Obama wins about two thirds of the simulated elections, but the trend probably favors Romney. Still…shouldn’t Romney be much stronger in NC? (Oh…and let’s not discuss the odd SC result…again. Just keep on praying for a new poll in the state.)
More bad news for Romney is that Obama dominates in Michigan by +5.6%. This makes six consecutive polls in favor of Obama in MI, all taken this year.
The terrible news for Romney is Ohio, where Obama continues to lead, albeit by only +1%, but Obama leads in all three “current” polls and the long-term trend isn’t suggesting any changes soon:
And the super horrible news for Romney is Pennsylvania. Obama leads by +6% and +8% in the two new polls. Using all three current polls, Obama wins the state 99.7% of the time. And, like Ohio, the trend offers no hints at a Romney takeover:
How do things stack up now? After simulating 100,000 elections using the state head-to-head polls, Obama wins 99,761 times and Romney wins 239 times (including the 101 ties). Obama receives (on average) 318 to Romney’s 220 electoral votes. If the election was held now, Obama would win with a 99.8% probability.
Romney has gained, on average, +15 electoral votes compared to last week’s analysis, but that only translates into a one tenth of one percent increase in his chances of winning.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:
- 328 electoral votes with a 4.14% probability
- 318 electoral votes with a 4.00% probability
- 312 electoral votes with a 3.72% probability
- 313 electoral votes with a 3.54% probability
- 327 electoral votes with a 3.50% probability
- 319 electoral votes with a 3.33% probability
- 329 electoral votes with a 2.83% probability
- 303 electoral votes with a 2.75% probability
- 304 electoral votes with a 2.49% probability
- 321 electoral votes with a 2.41% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 99.8%, Romney wins 0.2%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 317.9 (17.1)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 220.1 (17.1)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 318 (285, 356)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 220 (182, 253)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 149 | |||
| Strong Obama | 111 | 260 | ||
| Leans Obama | 58 | 58 | 318 | |
| Weak Obama | 9 | 9 | 9 | 327 |
| Weak Romney | 1 | 1 | 1 | 211 |
| Leans Romney | 11 | 11 | 210 | |
| Strong Romney | 161 | 199 | ||
| Safe Romney | 38 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 0 | 0 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 4 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | Romney | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1* | 754 | 37.8 | 62.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AK | 3 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| AZ | 11 | 1 | 864 | 45.3 | 54.7 | 2.5 | 97.5 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1* | 679 | 36.8 | 63.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 1* | 1838 | 66.8 | 33.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 1* | 564 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.6 | 49.4 | ||
| CT | 7 | 1* | 1460 | 58.9 | 41.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DE | 3 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| DC | 3 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| FL | 29 | 4 | 3532 | 48.4 | 51.6 | 8.6 | 91.4 | ||
| GA | 16 | 1 | 548 | 44.0 | 56.0 | 2.2 | 97.8 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 517 | 64.8 | 35.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| IL | 20 | 1* | 546 | 61.5 | 38.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| IN | 11 | 1* | 447 | 45.0 | 55.0 | 6.5 | 93.5 | ||
| IA | 6 | 1 | 1086 | 55.4 | 44.6 | 99.4 | 0.6 | ||
| KS | 6 | 1* | 442 | 45.0 | 55.0 | 6.8 | 93.2 | ||
| KY | 8 | 1* | 528 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 6.8 | 93.2 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1* | 542 | 41.1 | 58.9 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| ME | 2 | 1 | 552 | 54.3 | 45.7 | 92.4 | 7.6 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 1* | 488 | 64.8 | 35.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 1* | 421 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 85.6 | 14.4 | ||
| MD | 10 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| MA | 11 | 1 | 455 | 61.5 | 38.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 1 | 508 | 53.3 | 46.7 | 85.8 | 14.2 | ||
| MN | 10 | 1 | 467 | 58.0 | 42.0 | 99.5 | 0.5 | ||
| MS | 6 | 1* | 717 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MO | 10 | 1* | 465 | 48.4 | 51.6 | 30.3 | 69.7 | ||
| MT | 3 | 2 | 1278 | 46.9 | 53.1 | 6.1 | 93.9 | ||
| NE | 2 | 1 | 460 | 42.4 | 57.6 | 0.9 | 99.1 | ||
| NE1 | 1 | 1* | 389 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 10.8 | 89.2 | ||
| NE2 | 1 | 1* | 252 | 49.6 | 50.4 | 46.5 | 53.5 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 1* | 284 | 35.9 | 64.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| NV | 6 | 1 | 480 | 54.2 | 45.8 | 90.4 | 9.6 | ||
| NH | 4 | 1 | 1093 | 56.4 | 43.6 | 99.8 | 0.2 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 2 | 2077 | 56.5 | 43.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NM | 5 | 1* | 494 | 57.5 | 42.5 | 98.9 | 1.1 | ||
| NY | 29 | 1 | 720 | 60.7 | 39.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 4 | 3059 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 65.0 | 35.0 | ||
| ND | 3 | 1* | 480 | 41.3 | 58.8 | 0.3 | 99.7 | ||
| OH | 18 | 3 | 2737 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 90.1 | 9.9 | ||
| OK | 7 | 1 | 448 | 30.4 | 69.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OR | 7 | 1 | 1327 | 52.0 | 48.0 | 84.9 | 15.1 | ||
| PA | 20 | 3 | 2063 | 54.3 | 45.7 | 99.7 | 0.3 | ||
| RI | 4 | 1* | 495 | 59.4 | 40.6 | 99.8 | 0.2 | ||
| SC | 9 | 1* | 1833 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 85.2 | 14.8 | ||
| SD | 3 | 1* | 442 | 44.3 | 55.7 | 4.4 | 95.6 | ||
| TN | 11 | 1 | 654 | 46.0 | 54.0 | 7.6 | 92.4 | ||
| TX | 38 | 1 | 460 | 38.9 | 61.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| UT | 6 | 1* | 688 | 33.0 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1 | 528 | 67.8 | 32.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 3 | 2000 | 53.0 | 47.0 | 97.0 | 3.0 | ||
| WA | 12 | 1 | 481 | 57.8 | 42.2 | 99.1 | 0.9 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1 | 373 | 40.8 | 59.2 | 0.6 | 99.4 | ||
| WI | 10 | 4 | 2476 | 51.8 | 48.2 | 90.0 | 10.0 | ||
| WY | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
We’re also starting to see a little bit about how Gary Johnson may make a difference if his name recognition increases:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.....izona.html
WSJ is playing this like it’s all-but-over for Obama. But what do you expect from a Murdoch wingnut shelf liner?
No worries! The Milk Chocolate Messiah will win in November.
@1
Awesome.
@3 Typical racist drivel from a handjob wingnut.
@5
Silly people, didn’t you know that you can’t call Republicans on spewing racist drivel?
You have to pretend they have a legitimate point, and act as if logic and reason will actually have some impact on their tiny pea brains.
Love the “outcome” of right wing policies.. Thank you, Rick Snyders of the world and their brainless enablers in the legislatures.
I have problems trusting the validity of this when the report above shows that Romney’s chance of winning this state is more than 4 times better than the nation as a whole (0.2% chance Romney wins the election, 0.9% chance Romney wins Washington’s 12 electoral votes). I have even more problems with Romney having a 75 times better chance of winning Oregon than the USA as a whole.
Chris @ 8
I’m not sure I entirely understand your point. Romney’s chance of winning the U.S. and Washington (in an election held now, of course) are both close to zero. That his chances of winning the US is four times more probable isn’t particularly relevant.
For another perspective, turn the problem around and look at the mirror image: Obama’s chances of winning the U.S. versus WA. Obama’s chances of winning the U.S. is not four times higher than his chances of winning WA. Looking at the ratio of probabilities doesn’t lead to symmetrical interpretation, so it probably isn’t the right way to look at these results.
Romney’s ~1% chance of winning Washington is largely because there is only one smallish recent poll. That is, we don’t have a lot of statistical evidence, hence uncertainty.
Romney’s ~15% chance of winning Oregon is because the only recent poll, and a large one at that, only had Obama ahead by +3.6%.
One final comment: At the national level, uncertainty is somewhat reduced because there are still five states + D.C. that have no polls. But except, perhaps, for Maryland, these are states that poll so strongly for one candidate or the other that all of the simulated elections go for the state’s favored candidate.
Finally, there is only one partisan bias built into the analysis: Romney is awarded electoral college ties, under the assumption that the House remains under R control. Other than that, the results are symmetrical and driven directly by the numbers (see the FAQ for more details.)
Not sure how this changes your model, but a new NBC-Marist poll has Obama up in Florida
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com.....bcpolitics
NBC-Marxist pole…..lol
@9 well actually you got what I said backwards. According to this poll, Romney’s chances are better for washington state alone as opposed to the US as a whole. In other words it will be easier for Romney to win WA than the election nationally (according to this simulation). Yes, they are both close to zero, but my point is, when anything says Romney is doing better in Washington state as opposed to the USA as a whole (even at 0.9% as opposed to 0.2%) there is clearly a problem with the simulation (maybe it is low sampling, but still it means it cant be trusted much yet) Fuck, with how deep blue this state is, I would say it was a problem if the poll said Romney has 1 in a quadrillion chance natinonally and 2 in a quadrillion chance in WA state.
Roger Rabbit spews:
@3 Typical racist drivel from a handjob wingnut.
Say what you will, rodent, but you know I’m correct. The Milk Chocolate Messiah will win in November, but the Reps will at least maintain their positions in the House and Senate.
So, nothing much will happen between January 2013 and January 2017.
{BTW, Everyone (including you!) is racist in one way or another.}
@13, just keep spewing that racist nonsense, that hatred is literally all the GOP has in their arsenal.