|99.5% probability of winning||0.5% probability of winning|
|Mean of 323 electoral votes||Mean of 215 electoral votes|
There were lots of new polls released in the two days since my previous analysis:
|WI||St Norbert College||17-May||22-May||406||5.0||49||43||O+6|
The good news for Romney is that Arizona gives him a modest +7% lead over Obama. And Romney will need it, now that Secretary of State Ken Bennett (R-AZ) has concluded that Obama really was born in Hawaii. Although there is an occasional poll showing Obama ahead, the larger trend shows the state in Romney’s column:
Other good news for Romney is that North Carolina has him up by +2% over Obama, and he takes three of the four May polls. The larger trend has favored Obama since late 2010, but things are clearly changing in the state:
Florida is up to its old tricks of bouncing between candidates. After being down -6% in the previous poll, Obama scores +5% over Romeny. The overall trend in FL looks more favorable to Obama, but that can clearly change:
In good news for Obama, we finally get the first poll out of Maryland. Obama has a dominating +23% lead over Romney.
Obama takes another Ohio poll with a +5% lead over Romney. Obama has now led in the last ten Ohio polls, dating back to late February.
Virginia gives Obama +4% over Romney. The recent trend still favors Obama in the state, but there is at least a hint that the state is swinging toward Romney:
Both Wisconsin polls give Obama the lead over Romney, and solidify his lead in the state.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,494 times and Romney wins 506 times (including the 51 ties). Obama receives (on average) 323 to Romney’s 215 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 99.5% probability of winning and Romney, a 0.5% probability of winning.
The probability is a slight improvement for Romney, up from a 0.2%. On the other hand, Romney’s expected electoral vote total drops from 220 to 215, as Obama’s increases from 318 to 323.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:
- 328 electoral votes with a 3.77% probability
- 318 electoral votes with a 3.42% probability
- 312 electoral votes with a 3.24% probability
- 319 electoral votes with a 3.19% probability
- 313 electoral votes with a 3.04% probability
- 327 electoral votes with a 2.88% probability
- 303 electoral votes with a 2.86% probability
- 322 electoral votes with a 2.53% probability
- 321 electoral votes with a 2.22% probability
- 304 electoral votes with a 2.13% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 99.5%, Romney wins 0.5%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 323.3 (19.6)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 214.7 (19.6)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 322 (287, 364)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 216 (174, 251)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|8||4||Votes||polls||Votes||Obama||Romney||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.