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McKenna is just fucking with voters now

by Darryl — Tuesday, 7/10/12, 7:50 pm

As you may know, our state’s Attorney General, Rob McKenna takes credit for co-founding the state attorneys general lawsuit against the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

Apparently, McKenna lost control of the lawsuit, because he repeatedly claimed that he only wanted the “mandate” and the Medicaid provisions thrown out. Indeed, his own official web site claimed that, “This suit will not ‘overturn’ or ‘repeal’ the new health care reform legislation.”

His co-conspirators colleagues saw it differently. The lawsuit ended up asking the courts to strike down the entire law.

So…remember a couple of Thursdays ago when the Supreme Court found the PPACA “mandate” constitutional? That very day, McKenna gave a press conference in has capacity as Attorney General and as one of the instigators of the ill-fated lawsuit against PPACA. Here is a excerpt from the Q&A (video here):

Jim Brunner: Do you support Congress repealing this law […]?

Rob McKenna: This law is not going to be repealed…

Jim Bruner: Do you support it being repealed?

Rob McKenna: No. There are a number of provisions in this law that ought to be maintained.

Okay…he had to be asked a second time when he tried giving a non-answer the first time, but…pretty clear answer, no?

Yesterday, McKenna further “clarified” his position when speaking before Chamber of Commerce in Yakima :

…McKenna said the reports were a misinterpretation by “Seattle media” and that his position on the Affordable Care Act hasn’t changed.

“I wish I had been better prepared with a better articulated response than the one I gave at the press conference,” McKenna told the luncheon audience after an attendee accused him of changing his stance. “Frankly I didn’t think we were going to lose so I wasn’t ready for that question.”

McKenna insisted he was only asked whether Congress would go forward with repealing the act, not whether he thinks it should be repealed.

Huh. The media clearly reported that McKenna didn’t want Congress to repeal the PPACA. So…um, now, under criticism on the other side of the Mountains, McKenna claims the “Seattle Media” misinterpreted him? So…he is suggesting to a more conservative audience that he believes it should be repealed?

So…to further “clarify” exactly how McKenna feels, his campaign manager, Randy Peeple points out:

…McKenna’s position has not changed and that his [forthcoming] op-ed will not be calling for repeal of the health-care law. Instead, he said McKenna will more fully lay out the parts of the law he still has concerns with and how he’d responsibly approach them as governor.

McKenna has continued to warn about the expense of the law’s Medicaid expansion and has said its individual mandate is problematic despite the court’s ruling. (At his June 28 news conference, however, McKenna said the mandate should remain in place “for now” because it is so closely tied to key positive parts of the health-care law.)

So…the “mandate” is problematic (East) but he wants it to remain in place (West).

Come on. He’s just fucking with everyone now!

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 7/10/12, 2:04 pm

DLBottle
Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight the Tri-Cities and Vancouver, WA chapters meet, and Thursday night Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets. Next Monday there are meetings of the Olympia and Yakima chapters.

With 227 chapters of Living Liberally, including eleven in Washington state and four more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 7/6/12, 11:57 pm

Do you have an offshore bank account?

The Health Care Killing Floors:

  • Bill-O-The-Clown fesses up….
  • Ann Telnaes: The Republican solution to fixing our health care system.
  • Susie Sampson: Health Care and Independence Day.
  • Young Turks: MittFlop #1,712, “Obamacare mandate a tax”.
  • Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Rhode Island edition:
  • Sam Seder: “Katherine Harris” calls to chime in on Obamacare, SCOTUS + More!
  • Even Bill-O-the-Clown mocks Rep. John Boehner.
  • Mark Fiore: RepubliBliss.

Maddow: Ron Paul not out until Nebraska sings.

Obama kicks off a campaign tour.

Pap: The fracking industry’s dirty secrets.

Tom: The Good, The Bad and the Very Very Nasicornously Ugly!

Growing Up:

  • Young Turks: FAUX News rips kid for turning liberal.
  • Lawrence O’Donnell talks to fallen conservative Jonathan Krohn.
  • Young Turks: Conservative Kid Jonathan Krohn evolves into a Liberal.
  • Sam Seder: 13 YO conservative kid pundit Jonathan Krohn…now a 17 YO liberal.
  • End of a Teen Dream (photo essay): The Conservatives who once loved Jonathan Krohn (via TalkingPointsMemo).
  • Slate News: Jonathan Krohn responds to the responses.

The Daily Show explains Wall Street.

Alyona: Rhode Island’s new disclosure act.

Young Turks: Conservative Judge says GOP has become ‘goofy’.

Slate News: Ron Paul’s new crusade.

Sam Seder: Florida Congressman Bill Young (R) pulls a McKenna; tells minimum wage worker to, “Get a job”.

The Onion Week in Review.

Romney’s Romper Room:

  • Slate NewsRomney’s Spanish advertisement FAIL.
  • Thom: Mr. 1% and his offshore millions.
  • Mitt explains the free rider provision.
  • Pap: Romney is in deep with oil lobbyists.
  • Newsy: Murdoch criticism suggests rift with Romney.
  • Sam Seder: Lemon. Wet. Good.
  • Gov. Strickland calls on Mitt to release tax returns.
  • Young Turks: Romney’s abortion clean-up service…investment
  • Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Washington state edition:
  • Thom: Pirate capitalist Romney vs the average Joe.
  • Newsy: Romney camp confused in tax penalty.
  • Sam Seder: Everyone deserves a fair shot if they can afford it.
  • Ann Telnaes: Mitt Flips.
  • ONN: Romney’s numbers skyrocket after prostitute reveals she paid him.
  • Young Turks: Murdoch tweets on Mitt.
  • Liberal Viewer: MSNBC’s false edit of Romney immigration stance.

Obama likes the kid’s hair.

Sam Seder: Rush Limbaugh, “The country went downhill when we let women vote!.

Young Turks: Anti-tax movement burned in Colorado fire.

Thom: more of The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Mother Pitt:

  • Young Turks: Brad Pitt’s mother.
  • Buzz60: MOOoooOmmm!
  • Slate News: The strange case of Brad Pitt and his mother.

White House: West Wing Week.

Maddow: Thaddeus McCotter resigns… weirdly.

Young Turks: Koch brothers helped by ear marks from tea party Congressman.

Thom: Will RI disclosure bill keep out the super PACs?

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Poll Analysis: Romney slips

by Darryl — Wednesday, 7/4/12, 3:29 pm


Obama Romney
99.9% probability of winning 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 327 electoral votes Mean of 211 electoral votes

Last week’s analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Romney with an average of 323 to 215 electoral votes in a hypothetical election held then. The results suggested Obama had a 99.3% to Romney’s 0.7% probability of winning.

Since then, eleven new polls have been released (although only a couple of the polls were administered after last Thursday’s Supreme Court ruling on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act):

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AL Capital Survey Research Center 06-Jul 06-Sep 841 3.3 33.9 55.8 R+21.9
AZ Rasmussen 26-Jun 26-Jun 500 4.5 41 54 R+13
FL WeAskAmerica 01-Jul 02-Jul 1127 2.9 46.1 45.3 O+0.8
FL Quinnipiac 19-Jun 25-Jun 1200 2.8 45 41 O+4
MA PPP 22-Jun 24-Jun 902 3.3 55 39 O+16
MI Marist 24-Jun 25-Jun 1078 3.0 44 39 O+5
NH Marist 24-Jun 25-Jun 1029 3.0 43 42 O+1
NC Civitas 29-Jun 01-Jul 558 4.2 45 50 R+5
NC Marist 24-Jun 25-Jun 1019 3.1 46 44 O+2
OH Quinnipiac 19-Jun 25-Jun 1237 2.8 47 38 O+9
PA Quinnipiac 19-Jun 25-Jun 1252 2.8 45 39 O+6

Alabama is solid for Romney (+21.9%), as Massachusetts is for Obama (+16%). Arizona is turning into a solid Romney state. He has led in the past five polls, going back to mid-April.

Obama solidifies the three “classic swing states.” In Florida, Obama leads in both polls by +0.8% and +4%. Combined with the one other recent poll, Obama would be expected to take the state now with a 93% probability.

In Ohio, Obama has a +9% in the new poll, giving him the lead in both current OH polls; he would be expected to win the state now with a 99% probability. Romney seemed to made some headway in late May and early June, but that “surge” now seems transient: ObamaRomney04Jun12-04Jul12Ohio

The Ohio story is repeated for Pennsylvania where Obama has a modest +6% lead over Romney, leads in both current polls, and would win with a 99% probability. The difference is a lack of evidence for a transient Romeny surge for the state: ObamaRomney04Jun12-04Jul12Pennsylvania

North Carolina is interesting. Romney goes up +5% in one poll and Obama goes up by +2% in the other new poll. Romney now leads in three of the four current polls, and would be expected to take the state with a 71% probability: ObamaRomney04Jun12-04Jul12North Carolina

Michigan has Obama up by a moderate +5% over Romney. The state has gone from a tie one year ago, to a solid Obama lead since January, back down to a small advantage for Obama in the past few weeks:

ObamaRomney04Jun12-04Jul12Michigan

Finally, the new New Hampshire poll gives Obama a not-so-impressive +1% lead over Romney. Still, the larger trend and the recent flurry of polls has the state painted blue:

ObamaRomney04Jun12-04Jul12New Hampshire

With these new polls (and some older ones dropping out), the Monte Carlo analysis gives Obama wins 99,860 times and Romney wins 140 times (including the 41 ties). Obama receives (on average) 327 (+4) to Romney’s 211 (-4) electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would win with a 99.9% probability.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Independence Day open thread

by Darryl — Wednesday, 7/4/12, 9:26 am

NPR reads the Declaration of Independence:

[audio:http://pd.npr.org/anon.npr-mp3/npr/me/2012/07/20120704_me_01.mp3]

Martin Bashir’s Top Lines: Independence day political fireworks.

Keb Mo:

Buzz60: Best 4th of July fails.

Young Turks: Epic Politics Man goes looking for an American-made American flag to celebrate the Fourth of July.

Morgan Freeman:

Big Eddie’s (Ed Schultz’s) barbecue and Obamacare tips for July 4th.

Newsy: July 4th fireworks being cancelled across the U.S.

Note: Tune in at 10:00 AM today on KUOW (94.9 FM) for a one hour Capitol Steps “Politics Takes a Holiday” program.

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McKenna’s flawed temperament

by Darryl — Tuesday, 7/3/12, 4:15 pm

It’s bizarre. Really, really bizarre.

Rob McKenna has largely been a cautious politician. He has mastered the technique of being as inoffensive as possible—an absolute necessity for a Republican running for statewide office in Washington state. So, when asked to comment on an inflammatory partisan issue, McKenna skillfully responds with the most vacuous, inoffensive answer imaginable.

But the façade has been showing cracks. They became apparent during McKenna’s gubernatorial kick-off event, when Goldy was barred from entry to the press conference. The campaign was specifically targeting Goldy or The Stranger for exclusion.

What the fuck?!? That’s the kind of petty shit I expect from Tim Eyman, not a serious person asking to be the next Governor of Washington. My impression at the time:

There are warning signs here. The McKenna campaign, right out of the starting gate, is engaging in thuggery. “Open government champion,” my ass.

Two days after McKenna’s kick-off, The Stranger’s Eli Sanders ran into McKenna outside the KUOW studios and asked him about excluding Goldy. McKenna responded:

“I don’t think David Goldstein qualifies as a journalist,” a miffed McKenna told Eli. “He’s a hack. He’s a partisan hack. He’s just there to parrot points from the other side.”

Legally, McKenna is simply wrong. Goldy is a journalist under the laws of our state.

You would think the Attorney General would know that!

(*Crack*)

Then there was the cupcake incident, where McKenna was to give a speech before the King County Young Republicans:

McKenna was about 40 seconds into his talk—he was outlining the state’s dismal job numbers—when a young man in a blue Cougars baseball cap, blue sweat jacket, jeans, and Tevas walked in, sat in the front row, took out a camera and started filming.

McKenna stopped and asked the man who he was with. The man gave his name, Zach Wurtz, and said he was with the Washington State Democrats. The Young Republicans club president, Jennifer Fetters, asked him to leave. Nope. McKenna told Wurtz to turn off the camera. Wurtz refused. McKenna’s voice got sharper, “You need to put the camera away. Now!”

Through the cracks is revealed a peevish—and possibly paranoid—man.

That same mix of peevish and paranoia was seen when he barked, “Get a job!” to Kendra Obom, a woman asking him questions about his position on the Reproductive Parity Act:

McKenna first tried to blow off her question, stating that as a lawyer for the state — he is currently Washington’s attorney general — he wasn’t allowed to comment. Then, apparently flustered, he went after Obom personally, asking her if she thought she was being honest and accusing her of trying to gain a political advantage.

Despite Obom identifying herself as a youth worker, McKenna ends his interaction by telling her “Why don’t you go get a job?”

A candidate has the right to be dickish, of course. Perhaps McKenna was picked on too much in school. Or maybe being a partisan Republican in a moderate’s clothing has rendered him a little skittish and paranoid. But these events strongly suggest that McKenna has serious character flaws that are, at the very least, unseemly in a Governor.

It becomes totally unacceptable when a candidate’s character flaws infect his judgement as a public official. This is precisely what happened last Thursday, when McKenna’s staff specifically targeted Goldy for exclusion from an AG press conference. Goldy’s news editor, Dominic Holden, the person who had assigned Goldy to cover the conference reported:

“They are physically blocking me from entering,” Goldy told me by phone, seven minutes before the 11:30 a.m. press conference was scheduled to begin. A spokesman for McKenna, Dan Sytman, had told Goldy a few minutes before that Goldy wasn’t a journalist and then blocked him from entering. A McKenna staffer had also grabbed Goldy by the shoulders and turned him away from the door.

(*Snap*)

Goldy offers two competing hypotheses:

  1. McKenna wasn’t aware of the legal issues of barring a member of the press (or even the public) from public meetings.
  2. Our State Attorney General, out of some mix of personal vendetta and sense of invulnerability, used his office to illegally intimidate a citizen into giving up his rights.

This latest episode goes beyond “warning sign.” It’s a danger sign. Rob McKenna has some serious flaws in his temperament that make him paranoid and vengeful—to the point of abusing his office.

It is something voters really ought to know about.

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 7/3/12, 3:20 pm

It’s Tuesday. So please join us for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking liberally meets every Tuesday night, and Drinking Liberally Tacoma meets this Thursday.

With 227 chapters of Living Liberally, including eleven in Washington state and four more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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Open thread. Update: 7/2

by Darryl — Monday, 7/2/12, 8:29 am

— “Port of Seattle Commission delayed a final vote on an Eastside rails-to-trails agreement because of a dispute over the proposed Sodo arena.”

— Markos Moulitsas endorses Darcy Burner for Congress at Townhall Event on Sunday.

— Oh, the Humanity! Seattle’s plastic bag ban begins.

— Kangaroo traffic alert in Pasco, WA.

— The General reports on the deadliest weapon in the Left’s War on Women: Condoms.

— Space Shuttle trainer lands in Seattle.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 6/29/12, 11:56 pm

Roy Zimmerman with “Vote Republican,” the Virginia edition.

Sam Seder: Woops! GOP admits voter ID laws are a scam.

Health Care Ruling:

  • Ed: The G.O.P. reaction
  • Young Turks: The Wingnut Reaction.
  • Jim McDermott weighs in.
  • Stephen: John Roberts betrayal.
  • Ted Strickland: Romney is the inventor of the individual mandate
  • Sam Seder: Bill O’Reilly promised to “apologize for being an idiot” if Obamacare upheld.
  • Ann Telnaes: Conservatives turn on John Roberts
  • Young Turks: Can Romney repeal Romneycare?
  • Obama and Romney: dueling SCOTUS reactions (via Indecision Forever)
  • How Obama causes unemployment:
  • Thom and Pap: Is it a tax?
  • Young Turks: Republican threatening armed rebellion over Obamacare
  • Jen: Play a little ‘Romney Feud’ with Jennifer Granholm
  • Jon on reactions to the health care ruling.
  • Young Turks: Rand Paul doesn’t buy the Constitutionality of Obamacare.
  • Odonnell: The fallout.
  • Al Sharpton: Some Republicans who used to support the “mandate”
  • Jonathan Mann: Healthcare (I’ll take what I can get).:
  • Al Sharpton covers it
  • David Axerod: Penalty was fine with Romney in Massachusetts
  • Young Turks: CNN & FAUX News’ BIG FAIL.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Jon with Watergate-gate-gate-gate-gate (via Political Wire).

Mark Fiore: Little Suzie Newsykins on free speech—units.

Eric Schwartz brings back a classic.

Opening statements from 1st CD candidates debate 27 Jun.

Immigration Politics:

  • Jon catches FAUX News lying through their motherfucking teeth.
  • Liberal Viewer: FAUX News creates false Obama contradiction on immigration.
  • Ann Telnaes: Scalia’s temper tantrum on immigration.
  • Daily Kos Radio: Has Scalia lost his marbles?

Sam Seder: 63% of Republicans still believe there were WMD in Iraq at invasion.

Pap: Fighting the voter suppression tricks.

Ann Telnaes: Supreme Court strikes down Montana corporation campaign spending law .

Clinton and Bush: A Bad Lip Reading experience.

SlateNews: Sen. Rand Paul holds up key flood insurance bill with anti-abortion amendment.

Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

RomneyWorld:

  • Romney’s business experience.
  • Maddow: Republicans see an enemy in their own candidate.
  • Vetting Mitt’s Veeps: Gov. Chris Christie:
  • Vetting Mitt’s Veeps: Gov. Bobby Jindal
  • Actual Audio: Mitt Romney on…um, something.
  • Romney retreat: What is he trying to hide?
  • SlateNews: Romney raises millions after SCOTUS decision

Young Turks: The bizarre Texas GOP platform.

White House: West Wing Week.

Thom: The “two Black guys in the White House trying to take away our guns” conspiracy theory.

Sam Seder: Rush Limbaugh throws tantrum because you can’t jail someone for free speech

Senate candidate Tommy Thompson mistakes refers to 9/11 As 9/18 while bragging up his experience.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Obamacareapalooza. Liveblogging the reaction.

by Darryl — Thursday, 6/28/12, 9:06 am

8:58: I am listening to Mitt Romney right now…and he is shamelessly lying about the impact of the patient protection and affordable care act. I didn’t hear anything about “death panels” but the same old bullshit lines:

“Obamacare puts the government between you and your doctor”

“Higher deficits.”

“Causes you to lose the insurance you like”

“Or return to a time when you could chose the insurance you like,”

“Obamacare is a job killer”

…and others.

Yawn.

Most of his claims have been shown false by the fact checking web sites.

9:06: Gov. Gregoire is on KUOW now, pointing out how “going back to the status quo would bankrupt our businesses, our families, and the state.”

9:09: Goldy takes the SCOTUS decision as a sign that Rob McKenna is a crappy lawyer:

Remember, McKenna was instrumental in initiating the lawsuit that forced today’s ruling, and spoke confidently on the campaign trial that he and his fellow attorneys general would prevail. He was wrong.

“Our precedent demonstrates that Congress had the power to impose the exaction in Section 5000A under the taxing power, and that Section 5000A need not be read to do more than impose a tax. This is sufficient to sustain it.”

Even though an overwhelming majority of constitutional scholars had weighed in that the mandate appeared to be constitutional, perhaps it is unfair to use this ruling to impugn McKenna’s legal acumen. Perhaps McKenna merely made the political calculation that the conservative majority on the court would ultimately prove be just as politically unprincipled as he is, and thus toss out the ACA regardless of clearly established precedent?

Perhaps. Not that that take is any more flattering.

The point is that under McKenna’s leadership the attorney general’s office has an established track record of championing losing, politically motivated cases and opinions.

9:15: Obama is on now. He goes through a list of the major advantages.

“Young Americans can stay on their parents insurance”

“Seniors receive discounts on prescriptions”

“No insurance? Then you will be insured starting in 2014.”

“No discrimination by preexisting conditions”

“People who can afford insurance should take the responsibility of buying it”

“I didn’t do this because I believe it is good politics. I did it because it is good for America.”

Not much new there. Essentially, Obama and Romney stuck to their previous points.

9:23: The gods of politics are to be worshiped and thanked for giving us a Republican nominee who, while a Governor, passed the model of universal health care that he must now fight against. I think this angle has been downplayed to date because of the uncertainty of the SCOTUS decision. Now, it’s ripe….

9:26: The real “Death Panel” would have been SCOTUS if they had struck down Obamacare. Hopefully, today’s ruling will help us claw our way back to the top of the list for health statistics….

9:28: Rep. Jim McDermott is on KUOW. He is happy.

“John Roberts…is fantastic” (Okay…maybe I’ve changed the meaning there.)

“People have been trying to do this since 1935…huge victory”

“Rob McKenna has egg on his face.”

9:31: Republicans have been chanting “overreach, overreach, overreach” like they are in a fucking trance. What the SCOTUS decision shows us is that they were engaged in a collective reach around!

9:34: Steve Scher on KUOW is now interviewing some wingnut (part of the lawsuit) who claims that today’s decision means Americans have “lost their freedom.” Sure…they have lost the freedom to go bankrupt from medical costs. Freedom from watching the most disadvantaged Americans suffer for want of health care. Freedom from the constant worry about how to get health insurance….

9:40: Okay…finally back to Goldy’s point above. He is right that McKenna was shown by the SCOTUS decision to be a lousy lawyer. McDermott is right, “Rob McKenna has egg on his face.” But I stand by my statement that McKenna is a winner by this decision. A little egg on his face is nothing compared to dealing with the actual consequences to real voters had the lawsuit succeeded.

9:49: Paul Constant posts this hilarious CNN moment:

10:20: Josh Marshall:

I have some thoughts on the politics of this — mainly because the politics is what I have some expertise to speak about. But that will be my next post. Before I do that I wanted to state very clearly that the politics of the decision pales before its substance, a fact that I suspect will get little attention today. This decision will have a massive effect on the lives of literally millions of people. Mitt Romney may have joked yesterday that the White House was “not sleeping real well” last night. But a lot of people tonight and in the future will sleep a lot better for this result. Young people, people with pre-existing conditions and mainly people who through the chaos of the health care market simply find themselves with no coverage.

That’s the big deal.

10:33: Apparently, FAUX News joined CNN in jumping the gun. They heard or read that the court didn’t find the Commerce Clause argument convincing and assumed the whole thing would be struck down. TPM does a medley:

10:40: Obama speaks:

10:45: Gov. Christine Gregoire’s statement on today’s SCOTUS ruling. (Livestreaming for now.) Gregoire eviscerates Rob McKenna!

10:56: Rob McKenna releases a say-nothing statement on today’s ruling. As one of two people who initiated the lawsuit, you’d think he’d have a hell of a lot more to say than that. I suspect he is just relieved that the whole potential nightmare for his gubernatorial campaign is over.

11:06: Justice Ginsburg’s opinion quoted from Gov. Christine Gregoire’s brief,submitted in reaction to McKenna joining the lawsuit. “We tried healthcare without a mandate and it [became]…a death spiral.”

11:09: I, for one, look forward to the forthcoming law with its tax incentive to eat broccoli.

11:14: Seattle PI’s Joel Connelly summarizes some of the PPACA’s benefits for Washingtonians:

About 52,000 young people have been able to stay on their parents’ health insurance programs until the age of 26.

The law has provided that families seeking insurance cannot be denied coverage because of a child’s pre-existing condition. Nor can insurers place lifetime limits on spending for an individual’s health care.

More than 100,000 small businesses in Washington are now eligible for a federal small business tax credit designed to make it easier and more economical to provide employees with health care.

“I look forward to the day not long from now when more than 800,000 people in our state will be able to use our Health Benefit Exchange to get health insurance they need but currently must go without,” said Gov. Christine Gregoire.

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Upheld!

by Darryl — Thursday, 6/28/12, 8:08 am

The Supreme Court has largely upheld the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA).

My limited understanding from media coverage is that the ruling on the “mandate” is narrow. The crux of the argument: The U.S. government can tax. Period. Since the mandate is a tax incentive, it’s not outside the constitutional scope for congress to enact such a tax incentive for people to purchase insurance.

Two quick points. First, we see once again, that Democrats lost the battle of words by the fact that the tax incentive provision became known as a “mandate.”

The fact is, it isn’t a mandate. It is an incentive. You are not mandated to purchase insurance. Rather, you pay a tax if you can afford but don’t purchase insurance. Or, put another way, you avoid paying a tax if you have insurance.

The word “mandate” is one of those wingnut terms of art (like “death tax”) that is factually inaccurate, but is fantastic for stoking emotions. It makes for good hate-stoking.

The second point. Of the thousand and thousands of words I’ve read on the constitutionality/unconstitutionality of the PPACA after the lawsuits were announced, one of the best was written by none other than Goldy:

See, the recently passed health care reform legislation does not require that all U.S. citizens purchase insurance, it merely provides a tax incentive to those of us who do. If you are not covered by an employer, and if you have not purchased your own individual policy, and if your income is above certain levels, and if you don’t hail from a state that has opted out of this mandate by implementing its own qualified health insurance system, you will be required to pay an additional federal tax, starting at the greater of $95 or 1% of income in 2014, and rising to $695 or 2.5% of income in 2016, up to a cap of the national average premium on a bronze plan. Both the minimum tax and the cap will increase by the annual cost of living adjustment.

Now, some might argue that this is still a mandate to engage in some sort of economic activity because it targets a tax at those who refuse, but one could easily flip this perception around. What it really is, is a flat, 2.5% federal income tax — much along the lines of what is already imposed to fund Social Security and Medicare — but for which the law provides a substantial exemption to those who choose to purchase private health insurance.

And don’t attempt to bog down this discussion in jibberish over whether this is a “tax” or a “fee” or a “penalty” or a “mandate” or whatever. The courts have long been consistent that lawmakers need not jump through such semantic hoops; if a law is constitutional worded one way, it is constitutional worded another, as long as the practical application is the same. And clearly, our tax laws are filled with provisions intend to encourage some economic activities and discourage others.

Along these lines, a better analogy than Troll’s theoretical handgun mandate would be our current home mortgage interest deduction. The federal government does not actually mandate that we all take out big mortgages to buy homes and condos, but it grants huge tax advantages to those who do, essentially penalizing renters. Think about it: with the extra tax revenue from eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction, the federal government could lower the base tax rate on all of us.

So, if the health insurance mandate-cum-exemption is unconstitutional based on the contention that it compels individuals to engage in an economic activity, then so too would be the home mortgage interest deduction, and any number of other federal tax incentives. And I sincerely doubt that McKenna would choose to join a lawsuit seeking to deny Washington homeowners this very popular deduction.

If the “mandate” is unconstitutional, so is the mortgage interest deduction. After all, it “mandates” that you take out a mortgage loan, or pay a tax penalty.

Finally…winners and losers: First, this secures Obama’s legacy. Even though the PPACA was only one of many solid accomplishments of Obama’s first two years, this one is more defining and will positively, directly touch the lives of more Americans. (Ironically, candidate Obama opposed a “mandate” while he was campaigning against Clinton in 2008.) Second, this takes away Romney’s arguments that “Obama didn’t do anything” when he had a Democratic House and Senate.

Likewise, Democrats win by getting through another great social program. This is, after all, the real reason why Republicans oppose this largely Republican-designed program.

On the other hand, this is a win for conservatives, in that they will certainly be motivated by hatred, anger, fear of “socialism” largely out of the misconception that the government is now “forcing them to do something.”

The other big winner is Rob McKenna, who by losing the lawsuit he claims to have co-founded, dodges a huge bullet. Who wants the vote for the prick that kicked you off your parent’s insurance, or the asshole that quadrupled your insurance costs because of a pre-existing condition?

The final big winner is America—we have now joined most of the rest of the civilized world by making health care available to the poorest of our citizens. A reversal would have been a tragedy for untold millions of Americans. The PPACA is far from perfect, but it’s almost certainly better than what we had.

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Poll Analysis: Romney creeps up a bit

by Darryl — Tuesday, 6/26/12, 6:49 pm


Obama Romney
99.3% probability of winning 0.7% probability of winning
Mean of 323 electoral votes Mean of 215 electoral votes

Nine new state head-to-head polls have been released in the contest between Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama since my previous analysis:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO WeAskAmerica 25-Jun 25-Jun 1083 3.0 46.6 43.0 O+3.6
MI Denno Research 14-Jun 15-Jun 600 4.0 40 40 tie
NH ARG 21-Jun 24-Jun 417 — 49 46 O+3
NC Rasmussen 25-Jun 25-Jun 500 4.5 44 47 R+3
OH PPP 21-Jun 24-Jun 673 3.8 47 44 O+3
OR PPP 21-Jun 24-Jun 686 3.7 50 42 O+8
UT Dan Jones 15-Jun 21-Jun 1222 2.8 26 68 R+42
VA WeAskAmerica 25-Jun 25-Jun 1106 3.0 43.3 48.0 R+4.7
VA ODU 16-May 15-Jun 776 3.5 49 42 O+7

The unsurprising polls include one from Oregon that gives Obama a +8% lead over Romney, and the first poll of the year in Utah that gives Romney a +42% advantage over Obama.

Colorado puts Obama up by +3.6% over Romney. The four current polls weigh solidly in Obama’s favor, as does the overall polling picture:
ObamaRomney26May12-26Jun12Colorado

The fourth Michigan poll released in the past week has the race tied at 40% each. Combined with two other recent polls, Obama has the slightest lead in the state overall, giving him an expected 68% probability of taking the state (if the election was held now).

The second New Hampshire poll in a week has Obama up by a tight +3% over Romney. (Note that I used the Likely Voter results instead of the Registered Voter results given for this poll.) The pair of polls combined gives Obama an 81% chance of taking the state at this point.

Romney takes the most recent North Carolina poll with a weak +3% lead over Obama. That makes five leads in a row for Mitt, all since mid-May:
ObamaRomney26May12-26Jun12North Carolina

Ohio gives Obama a small +3% lead, breaking Romney’s two poll lead streak. The three current polls in that race give Romney a thin 55% probability of taking the state at this point:
ObamaRomney26May12-26Jun12Ohio

Two new Virginia polls split. One goes to Obama by +7% and the other goes to Romney by +4.7%. The weight of the evidence from the five recent polls is that Obama would take the state now with a 83% probability.

ObamaRomney26May12-26Jun12Virginia

I want to again express my gratitude to Sam Minter, who does his own poll aggregation exercise. Sam systematically compared our poll databases, resolved the discrepancies, and sent corrections to me over the past month. Also, I thank the HA commenter who noticed an error in the Nebraska past elections numbers, and persisted in getting through to me when I missed his comment.

Okay…so now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,310 times and Romney wins 690 times (including the 63 ties). Obama takes (on average) 323 to Romney’s 215 electoral votes. For an election held now, Obama would have a 99.3% probability of winning and Romney, a 0.7% probability of winning.

Since the previous analysis Romney has gained an expected +3 electoral votes and has more than doubled his probability of winning (now), but that works out to less than a 1% probability overall of winning.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

[Read more…]

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 6/26/12, 3:25 pm

DLBottle

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. Tonight there are elections in Colorado, New York, Oklahoma and Utah, but we’ll likely ignore them to talk about other issues: the Governor and AG races in Washington, as well as recent and forthcoming Supreme Court decisions.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight there are also meetings of the Tri-Cities and Bellingham chapters. The Burien chapter meets on Wednesday, and the Woodinville chapter meets on Thursday. Then on Monday, the Yakima, South Bellevue and Olympia chapters meet.

With 227 chapters of Living Liberally, including eleven in Washington state and four more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 6/22/12, 11:58 pm

Obama For America outtakes.

Young Turks: CIA documents show Bin Laden warnings ignored:

Thom: Republicans find another union to bust.

Greenman: Climate crocks…Marc Morano at Heartland.

ONN: The Onion Week in Review.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Sam Seder: New 9/11 documents expose Bush admin. lies.

Susie Sampson Tea Party Report: Immigration!

Full of Mitt:

  • SlateNews: Mitt to America: Ignore the good news.
  • Sam Seder: Mitt talks and talks but won’t answer on immigration.
  • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Mitt Romney wants G.O.P. Govs to lie to Americans.
  • Obama on Mitt Romney outsourcing jobs.
  • Thom: Mitt wants a 12.5% Tax Break that you pay for.
  • Mitt Romeny on immigration reform.
  • Maddow: Romney fails to lead on immigration
  • Ann Telnaes: Mitt explains his immigration policy.
  • Sam Seder: Mitt’s sons on their dad.
  • Romney learns about touchtone touch screen technology (via Slog).
  • John King on Romney’s immigration speech
  • Mark Fiore: DeficitBots.
  • Sam Seder: Mitt to G.O.P. Governors, “Shhhhhhhh”.

Slate News: Springsteen won’t hang with Chris Christie.

Alyona: Romney Doppelganger hates poor people.

Indecision in the park.

A clown answer for Harry Reid: video platform
video management
video solutions
video player

Sam Seder: Vagina mentioning Rep. like “child who needed a time out”.

Thom: What do Republicans love about rape?

Young Turks: Secret right wing money spent on deceptive ads.

Ann Telnaes: Sheldon Adelson’s gift.

Fast, but mostly Furious:

  • Thom and Pap: Ongoing Fast and Furious conspiracy theory.
  • Jon attacks the Obama admin over executive privilege.
  • Sam Seder: GOP’s sad attempt at finding a scandal.
  • Ed and Pap: Darrel Issa’s contempt for democracy
  • Maddow: Gun fanatics invent conspiracy, ignore real gun violence.
  • Thom: F&F, why didn’t Pelosi arrest Rove?

ONN: Tea Party quiet—too quiet.

Sam Seder and Chris Hayes: Twilight of the Elites: America After Meritocracy.

Young Turks: Poll shows Republicans grossly misinformed on Iran, Iraq.

Alyona: Indiana Wingnut covers his bases on SCOTUS ruling.

Obama in Tampa.

“Joe” the “Historian”:

  • Slate News: Joe’s surreal ad
  • “Joe” the “Plumber” blames gun control for the Holocaust.
  • Sam Seder: Joe’s new bizarre ad.

White House: West Wing Week.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Arizona’s Secretary of State Ken Bennett is back with more Birfer insanity.

Anti-Obama teleprompter ad.

Young Turks: 2/3 of Republicans believe Obama was born outside of U.S.

Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Poll Analysis: Romney slips

by Darryl — Friday, 6/22/12, 12:30 pm


Obama Romney
99.7% probability of winning 0.3% probability of winning
Mean of 326 electoral votes Mean of 212 electoral votes

Ten days ago, Mitt Romney was on a roll. He had increased his probability of beating President Obama in a hypothetical election held then from 0.4% to 0.8%, and he gained in expected electoral votes up to 225. That was last week. This week, Romney slips.

There have been 18 new polls released to weigh in on the race:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ PPP 04-Jun 05-Jun 791 3.5 46 49 R+3
CO PPP 14-Jun 17-Jun 799 3.5 49 42 O+7
FL Quinnipiac 12-Jun 18-Jun 1697 2.4 46 42 O+4
IA WeAskAmerica 18-Jun 18-Jun 1086 3.0 45 44 O+1
ME WBUR 13-Jun 14-Jun 506 4.4 48 34 O+14
MI Mitchell 18-Jun 18-Jun 750 3.6 47 46 O+1
MI WeAskAmerica 18-Jun 18-Jun 1010 3.1 43 45 R+2
MI Rasmussen 14-Jun 14-Jun 500 4.5 50 42 O+8
MI Baydoun 12-Jun 12-Jun 1783 2.3 46.9 45.5 O+1.4
MT Rasmussen 18-Jun 18-Jun 400 4.5 42 51 R+9
NE PNA 11-Jun 13-Jun 601 — 40 52 R+12
NV PPP 07-Jun 10-Jun 500 4.4 48 42 O+6
NH Rasmussen 20-Jun 20-Jun 500 4.5 48 43 O+5
NJ Eagleton-Rutgers 31-May 04-Jun 1065 2.9 56 33 O+23
WA PPP 14-Jun 17-Jun 1073 3.0 54 41 O+13
WA Elway 13-Jun 16-Jun 408 5.0 49 41 O+8
WI Marquette 13-Jun 15-Jun 594 4.1 49 43 O+6
WI Rasmussen 12-Jun 12-Jun 500 4.5 44 47 R+3

[Read more…]

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Recent HA Brilliance…

  • Wednesday Open Thread Wednesday, 5/7/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 5/6/25
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  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Friday, 5/2/25
  • Friday Open Thread Friday, 5/2/25
  • Today’s Open Thread (Or Yesterday’s, or Last Year’s, depending On When You’re Reading This… You Know How Time Works) Wednesday, 4/30/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 4/29/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 4/28/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 4/28/25
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Saturday, 4/26/25

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