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Is Romney running racist ads?

by Darryl — Thursday, 8/2/12, 4:04 pm

Over at Slog, Paul Constant posts two new political ads, one from the Romney camp and one from Obama’s camp.

Let’s try an experiment.

Each ad has brief footage of President Obama. Can you tell which ad is attacking Obama just by looking at a screen capture of him?

Ad one:
ad1cropped

Ad two:
ad2cropped

Now, I realize that it is common to alter the shade and focus, and add effects to political hit ads. Color is typically washed out to display the opponent as less appealing, generic and gray. This can be seen in Obama’s ads where Romney ends up with a green-blue hue and raster lines running through the scene, giving an Orwellian feel (with, perhaps, a touch of Max Headroom).

How do the Romney people make Obama less appealing? They render him out of focus and darken his face.

Huh…why do you think they did that?

Here are the ads:

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Photo caption contest

by Darryl — Wednesday, 8/1/12, 3:55 pm

From last night’s Drinking Liberally:

2012-07-31_19-51-33_22

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WSRP in the key of F(ail) minor

by Darryl — Wednesday, 8/1/12, 12:30 pm

Just before the June, 2010 Washington State Republican Party convention, WSRP chair Luke Esser sent a pledge letter out to the G.O.P. senatorial candidates who were challenging Sen. Patty Murray (my emphasis):

We the undersigned Republican candidates for U.S. Senate herby urge the Washington State Republican Party to not make a pre-primary endorsement or nomination of any candidate in this year’s race for U.S. Senate, and to offer equal access to party resources for all Republican candidates. A pre-primary endorsement or nomination would only serve to divide our party at a time when we all need to be united in the effort to defeat Patty Murray. [….]

As Esser explained to Politico:

I thought it would be a mistake for anybody to win an endorsement. I think the body and the state party believe at this point that we should have a competitive and vigorous primary. May the best candidate win.

That’s some pathetic spin. The back story is that the Teabaggers were highly energized with a strong presence at the 2010 convention. The Teabaggers were pushing for a Clint Diddier nomination over latecomer Dino Rossi. Diddier had just earned Sarah Palin’s endorsement. A nomination fight would have have gotten ugly!

There’s only one problem with not nominating anyone in 2010. Take it away, Goldy (emphasis in original):

In what could turn out to be massive political blunder with far-reaching consequences, a question has been raised as to whether Mitt Romney can legally qualify to appear on the Washington ballot under existing state law:

WAC 434-215-165 Presidential nominations by major political parties.

Nominations for president and vice-president by major political parties are conducted at each party’s national convention. Immediately following the convention, each party must submit a certificate of nomination and list of electors to the secretary of state in order to place the nominees on the presidential general election ballot.

That is the procedure by which presidential candidates from “major political parties” qualify for Washington’s general election ballot. But according to a public records request that was forwarded my way, the Washington State Republican Party may no longer be a major party:

RCW 29A.04.086 tells us that “”Major political party” means a political party of which at least one nominee for president, vice president, United States senator, or a statewide office received at least five percent of the total vote cast at the last preceding state general election in an even-numbered year.”

The problem for the state G.O.P. is that the Senate race was the only state-wide race in 2010. And, as far as anyone can tell, and consistent with Esser’s pledge letter and statement, there was no actual Republican nominee for statewide office in 2010.

The implication is that the WSRP is now, technically, a minor party in Washington state.

Why is this important? Well…it is embarrassing. Republicans losing major party status will be the laughing stock of Washington state…with some assistance from the Teabaggers, Sarah Palin, and Dino Rossi’s timorousness in announcing his run.

But the other, potentially more serious consequence, is that the WSRP would be required to nominate a presidential candidate according to the rules for a minor party:

(2) In order to nominate candidates for the offices of president and vice president of the United States, United States senator, United States representative, or any statewide office, a nominating convention shall obtain and submit to the filing officer the signatures of at least one thousand registered voters of the state of Washington.

and signatures must…

(7) Be submitted to the appropriate filing officer not later than one week following the adjournment of the convention at which the nominations were made.

The 2012 WSRP State Convention ended on June 2. Oopsiedoodles!

So, unless the state Republicans submitted those 1,000 signatures and complied with all the other requirements of RCW 29A.20.161, Mitt Romney is not eligible to be on the Washington state general election ballot.

Should that happen, the Washington state Republicans will be the laughing stock of the nation.

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 7/31/12, 5:07 pm

DLBottlePlease join us for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

Tonight we will be joined by Secretary of State candidate, past Public Delegate to the United Nations, and former two-term Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels.

(During his last visit to Drinking Liberally, Mayor Nickels presented the chapter with a “Republican St” street sign. It still hangs over the bar, plastered with liberal political stickers.)

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter also meets tonight. The Spokane chapter and Drinking Liberally Tacoma meet this Thursday. On Monday, the Yakima, South Bellevue and Olympia chapters meet.

With 230 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and four in both Oregon and Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 7/28/12, 2:23 am

Olympic GOLD:

  • London Mayor dings Mitt (via Crooks and Liars).
  • Sam Seder: Mitt’s blunders.
  • Mitt #RomneyShambles
  • SlateTV: Mitt’s no good, very bad week.
  • Thom: Talking in code.
  • “Was it something I said?” #RomneyShambles.
  • Sam Seder: Has there ever been a worse Presidential candidate?
  • Pap: Mitt Romney, The Olympic Ass Clown
  • ‘Unbelievable,’ ‘Incomprehensible’: Krauthammer (!!!) slams Romney over Olympics comment.
  • Michelle shows Mitt how it’s done.

Mark Fiore: ALEC Rock:

Voter Disenfranchisement:

  • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: PA for it’s voter ID law.
  • SlateTV: Pennsylvania’s Voter ID Law comes under Federal scrutiny as Republicans admit Mitt agenda
  • Charlie Crist blasts Rick Scott over voter disenfranchisement (via Crooks and Liars).

Obama: Weekly Address.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Maryland edition.

Guns and Violence:

  • Ann Telnaes: Our desensitization to violence.
  • Mark Fiore: Gun Safety.
  • Pap: The gun industry’s license to murder.
  • Obama and Mitt square off on gun control.

Thom with Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Roy Zimmerman: Beer Party Anthem for patriots.

Context Matters:

  • Stephen supports Mitt’s very, very honest ads. (via Crooks and Liars).
  • Jon on Mitt’s phony, “you didn’t build that” attacks (via Crooks and Liars).
  • Young Turks: About that ad.
  • Obama: “I believe”.
  • Ezra Klein (for Maddow): Quoting out of context (via Crooks and Liars).
  • Stephen defends Romney’s “Anglo Saxon” remark (via Crooks and Liars).

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Bachmann on her witch hunt.

White House: West Wing Week.

Homophobic Food:

  • Jonathan Mann: Screw You, Chick-Fil-A.
  • Conan: Chick-Fil-A’s New Mascot—Chaz The Intolerant Chicken
  • Stephen is a Chick-Fil-A culture warroir (via Crooks and Liars).

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Zina Sanders: Michele Bachman’s Christian Crusades:

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican Indiana edition.

Jon fingers some assholes.

More Mitt:

  • Ann Telnaes: If dodgeball were an Olympic sport.
  • Mitt won’t reveal what he’s hiding in his tax returns.
  • Alyona: MItt’s foreign policy stuck in the Cold War.
  • Thom: Why is Mitt making out with bankers?

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Kentucy edition.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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General election tie in new WA-1 Poll

by Darryl — Friday, 7/27/12, 9:50 am

Results of a new SurveyUSA poll in Washington’s first congressional district (via KING 5) are out. The poll was taken on the 24th and 25th of July on a sample of 563 likely voters in the district (4.2% MOE). The results:

  • John Koster (R), 38%
  • Susan Delbene (D), 17%
  • Darcy Burner (D) 13%
  • Laura Ruderman (D) 6%
  • Steve Hobbs (D) 5%)
  • Darshan Rauniyar (D) 2%
  • Larry Ishmael (I) 2%

The best news about this poll is the 43% that Democratic candidates take, edging out Koster’s support at 38% (or 40% if you include Republican-turned-independent Ishmael). In head-to-head general election contests:

If the race were between Koster and DelBene, SurveyUSA finds it’s a dead heat—42% each. It’s also effectively a dead heat if it were Koster vs. Burner.

Of course, with 17% (primary) and 16% (general) still undecided, there is a lot of room for change between the end of the primary and the general election.

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Inslee hits McKenna hard

by Darryl — Thursday, 7/26/12, 2:51 pm

Gubernatorial candidate and former Congressman Jay Inslee released a quite positive introductory ad a couple of weeks ago:

The ad does a great job introducing him and his past service. It’s one of those ads that can build name recognition. That’s all good.

Now compare it to this latest ad that takes a quite different approach:

I like this ad in that it covers some of McKenna’s weaknesses that I have been highlighting recently—namely, his paranoid, vengeful bunker mentality with the press (and here and here) as well as his contemptuous attitude toward others (and here).

At least as a public figure, McKenna is not a very nice person, and this ad begins to needle at that chink in his armor.

The ad also picks up on another theme: McKenna’s statements of being unprepared in a couple of circumstances. This is probably excellent politics, but it isn’t a serious argument against McKenna. From what I can tell, McKenna does take his work seriously and is nearly always prepared.

So, why does a normally prepared candidate have to resort to saying he is unprepared? Quite simply, it allows him to dodge a troublesome question. He doesn’t have to lay out his position on health care reform or on gun control without first carefully constructing an answer designed to minimize any damage from unpopular beliefs he holds.

But, hell, if he is going to use “unprepared” as an excuse for dodging answers, it’s fair game to turn around and hit him for admitting he is unprepared!

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Poll Analysis: Lots of new polls…Romney gains a little more

by Darryl — Thursday, 7/26/12, 1:05 am


Obama Romney
99.0% probability of winning 1.0% probability of winning
Mean of 321 electoral votes Mean of 217 electoral votes

[Note: See update at the end of the post]

Last week’s analysis of state head-to-head polls showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney, 327 to 211 electoral votes and with a 99.6% probability of winning an election held then. With 18 new state head-to-head polls weighing in on the contest, Mitt Romney has gained a little more. Here are the polls:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
FL SurveyUSA 17-Jul 20-Jul 647 3.9 47.9 43.4 O+4.5
MI Rasmussen 23-Jul 23-Jul 500 4.5 48 42 O+6
MI Mitchell 23-Jul 23-Jul 825 3.4 44 45 R+1
MI PPP 21-Jul 23-Jul 579 4.1 53 39 O+14
MN SurveyUSA 17-Jul 20-Jul 552 4.3 45.9 39.7 O+6.2
NV WeAskAmerica 17-Jul 18-Jul 1092 3.0 49 43 O+6
NV Magellan Strategies 16-Jul 17-Jul 665 3.8 50 46 O+4
NJ Quinnipiac 09-Jul 15-Jul 1623 2.4 49 38 O+11
NM PPP 13-Jul 16-Jul 724 3.6 49 44 O+5
NY Quinnipiac 17-Jul 23-Jul 1779 2.3 55 32 O+23
NC Civitas 16-Jul 18-Jul 600 4.0 49 48 O+1
OH Rasmussen 18-Jul 18-Jul 500 4.5 47 45 O+2
PA PPP 21-Jul 23-Jul 758 3.6 49 43 O+6
PA Rasmussen 18-Jul 18-Jul 500 4.5 48 44 O+4
VA Rasmussen 16-Jul 17-Jul 500 4.5 47 46 O+1
VA Quinnipiac 10-Jul 16-Jul 1673 2.4 44 44 tie
WA SurveyUSA 16-Jul 17-Jul 630 4.0 46.0 37.3 O+8.7
WI WeAskAmerica 17-Jul 18-Jul 1162 2.9 49 42 O+7

Let’s get New Jersey and New York out of the way. They both have double digit leads for Obama.

Obama takes the latest Florida poll (+4.5%), giving him three of the five current polls, and a 62% probability of taking the state at this point.

In New Mexico Obama slips from +11 in the previous poll to a more moderate +5%. Even though a Romney victory at this point still seems unlikely, there is some hint at a softening of support for Obama:

ObamaRomney26Jun12-26Jul12New Mexico

Three polls in Michigan display remarkable heterogeneity. Obama takes one by double digits, one by single digits, and Romney takes one with a +1. The overall trend still looks more favorable for Obama:

ObamaRomney25Jun12-25Jul12Michigan

Obama gets a +6.2% in Minnesota which actually seems weak. But the graph of polls does not really indicate any radical change in support for Obama over the long run:

ObamaRomney25Jun12-25Jul12Minnesota

Nevada continues to trend Obama, with a +4% and a +6%.

North Carolina gives Obama a slim +1% lead over Romney, but Romney leads in three of the five current polls. At this point, Romney would take the state with 67% probability.

Obama gets a small +2% lead in the Ohio poll. Obama now leads in four consecutive polls for the state, dating back to early June.

Pennsylvania goes +4 and +6 for Obama in two new polls. He leads in all three current polls and would be expected to win the state with a 98.8% probability.

Two new Virginia polls suggest a very tight race. Obama leads Romney by +1% in one and the other is a tie. The five current polls give Obama a slight edge and a 58% probability in an election held now.

In Wisconsin, the latest poll goes +7% for Obama. Obama leads by about the same amount in all three current polls.

Here in Washington Obama is up by +8.7% over Romney. The longer trend strongly hints at an Obama victory here:

ObamaRomney26Jun12-26Jul12Washington

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,012 times and Romney wins 988 times (including the 179 ties). Obama receives (on average) 321 (-6) to Romney’s 217 (+6) electoral votes. Obama has a 99.0% (-0.6%) probability of winning and Romney has a 1.0% (+0.6%) probability of winning an election held now.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations: [Read more…]

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 7/24/12, 5:51 pm

DLBottle

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

Also, if your name is Barack, and you happen to be in Seattle for the night, don’t be shy about an unscheduled visit…. I mean, dude, it wouldn’t be the first time a (former) presidential candidate dropped in on us unannounced (Gen. Welsey Clark).

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter meets tonight, the Burien chapter meets on Wednesday, and the Woodinville chapter meets on Thursday.

With 230 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and four in both Oregon and Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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Poll: Inslee 43% McKenna 36%

by Darryl — Tuesday, 7/24/12, 11:59 am

A new Elway poll (first reported on Publicola) has been released for the 2012 Washington state gubernatorial contest. The poll of 405 registered voters (5% MOE) surveyed from the 18th to the 22nd of July has former Democratic congressman Jay Inslee leading Republican state AG Rob McKenna by 43% to 36%.

The poll reflects a turn-around in the race that has, until now, mostly been led by McKenna:

GenericCongress24Jun12-24Jul12Washington

If you squint a little, you can probably discern a long-term trend away from a McKenna and toward Inslee.

The regional breakdown in the new poll has Inslee leading McKenna in Seattle (+33%), King County outside Seattle (+8%), Pierce and Kitsap (5%), and North Sound (16%). McKenna leads in Eastern Washington (+9), and they are tied “South and West of Puget Sound.”

As you might imagine, Inslee leads among women (+10%), just as he did in the previous Elway poll (+2%) and last weeks Survey USA poll (+9%). More surprisingly, he now leads among men (+3%), reversing McKenna +5% lead in the previous Elway poll and +11% lead in the Survey USA poll.

Elway chalks up the lead change to a shift in preference among independent voters:

Most of the difference between last month’s findings and these is accounted for by a collapse in McKenna support among Independent voters. McKenna led among Independents by 42-29% in June, but Inslee led Independents by 31-29% this month. Meanwhile, the number of undecided Independents jumped from 29% last month to 40% this month. Since Independents are necessary to winning an election here, this volatility indicates a see-saw battle to November.

I subjected the Elway results to a Monte Carlo analysis of a million simulated elections. The results have a great deal of uncertainty as only 322 voters expressed a preference. The final tally gives Inslee 865,677 wins to McKenna’s 126,742 wins. That is, if the election was held now, the poll results suggests Inslee’s lead would hold with a 87.2% probability, and McKenna would win with a 12.8% probability.

Since Statisticians usually consider 95% probability as the cut-off, Inslee’s lead is “within the margin of error.” Here is the distribution of election outcomes from the simulated elections:

Elway-July

Last week’s Survey USA poll (that I analyzed here) was taken on the 16th and 17th of July, immediately before the Elway poll, and had McKenna leading Inslee 42% to 41%. The poll was a little larger than the Elway poll, with 525 of 630 registered voters expressed a preference for Inslee or McKenna.

What happens if we do a similar analysis using both polls jointly? After a million simulated elections, Inslee came out on top 699,377 times and McKenna won 291,968 times. Thus, Inslee would be expected to win a July election with a probability of 70.5% to McKenna’s 29.5%. Here is the distribution of election outcomes:

Elway-SUSA-July

Statistically, the race is still a tie, of course.

A final point of interest is the “likeability” measure that has Inslee up 34% to 27%. Unfortunately, this wasn’t reported for the previous Elway poll. One must wonder if the reports of McKenna’s negative interactions with the media are taking a toll. Additionally Jay Inslee’s excellent “introductory” ad that began airing on July 8th has probably helped his image and name recognition among voters.

A plausible reason for McKenna’s erosion of support is the recent Supreme Court ruling on, and the ensuing media coverage of McKenna’s role in the lawsuit against “Obamacare.” Just as voters are getting “in the mood” for the 2012 election season in a year with a polarizing presidential election, the ruling has provided a dose of hard partisan information about McKenna.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 7/21/12, 12:00 am

Thom: Some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Sam Seder: Rush Limbaugh’s Batman The Dark Knight Rises Villain is a Liberal conspiracy!!!!!

Lawrence: Anti-tax lobbyist Grover Norquist’s worst nightmare….

Young Turks: Darcy Burner–the aggressive progressive.

Kimmel: This week in unnecessary censorship.

Sam Seder: Nutcase IA Republican appoints herself Senator of Alt. USA.

Thom: How to marry a corporation.

ONN: Week in review.

Susie Sampson does The Young Turks.

Sam Seder: Shrub on his time as President: “8 years was awesome!”.

Thom and Pap: Bain connection to death squads.

Jon on Egyptian tomato throwers.

Mitt’s World:

  • Ed: Desperate Romney camp to unleash kitchen sink attacks at Obama.
  • Mitt dancing around the issues, Volume I.
  • Mitt dancing around the issues, Volume II.
  • Ann Telnaes: Caught on kiss-off cam.
  • Olbermann: Ann Romney defends decision to not release more tax returns.
  • Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, the New Hampshire verse:
  • Alyona: Mitt’s refusal to give tax returns.
  • Young Turks: Tricky Mitt…you’re not a crook, right?
  • Mark Fiore: Myttlympics.
  • Maddow: Burden of tax return question exceeds Romney’s political skill.
  • CNN: Romney’s charges of “cronyism” are false.
  • SlateTV: Mitt fails to invite Sarah Palin!
  • Even Republicans think Mitt is hiding something.
  • Sam Seder: What is the secret behind Mitt’s Magical IRA?
  • Obama campaign apologizes to Mitt Romney:
  • Maddow: Romney campaign in distress.
  • Vetting Mitt’s Veeps: Marco Rubio.
  • Young Turks: Mitt Romney’s new Latino ad starring Craig Romney
  • Maddow: Racism and the “Southern Strategy” is Mitt Romney’s new political tactic!
  • Lawrence’s Day in News: Romney’s campaign desperation.
  • Ann Telnaes: Romney will only release two years of tax returns.
  • What does retroactively retired mean?
  • Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Arizona edition:

Thom: Why would anyone proudly call themselves a Conservative?

Sam Seder with Matt Taibbi: You should be freaking out over LIBOR scandal!.

ONN: This week in history.

Thom: Justice Scalia tells America to, “Get over it”.

Michele Bachmann Investigates:

  • SlateTV: Michele Bachmann still pushing Muslim Brotherhood conspiracy despite GOP disaproval.
  • Sam Seder: Michele Bachmann suggests Huma Abedin, is a secret undercover Muslim agent!
  • Jon: Michele Bachmann and Huma Abedin’s Muslim brotherhood membership.
  • Young Turks: John McCain defends Huma Abedin from Senate floor.

Young Turks: Oregon man strip for TSA.

Alyona: Texas Voter ID IS like a poll tax.

Ed and Pap: Gov. Rick Scott’s criminal history will doom voter purge.

White House: West Wing Week.

FAUX Lies:

  • Young Turks: FAUX News latest attack on Obama.
  • Sam Seder: The FAUX News / GOP lie & the perfect truth behind Obama’s “You didn’t build that”.
  • Mitt Romney will say anything to get elected.
  • Newsy: Bachmann claims Muslim group is infiltrating U.S. government.
  • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Bill-O Calls Obama A “social justice anti-capitalist”.

Newsy: Nutcase Sheriff Arpaio claims Obama’s birth certificate is fake.

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Maddow: House GOP targets defenseless D.C. with anti-abortion agenda.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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This week in McKenna’s Stranger derangement syndrome

by Darryl — Friday, 7/20/12, 3:16 pm

This morning, The Stranger’s Dominic Holden wrote (my emphasis):

As Attorney General Rob McKenna explains this morning, “The national political debate sometimes oversimplifies and narrowly defines ‘women’s issues.'” That’s according to a press release that he didn’t send to The Stranger (but he did send to other media outlets) as part of his campaign to be Washington’s Republican governor.

So…McKenna is still singling out at least one media source and being an asshole to them.

But, since other media got the press release, The Stranger’s Cienna Madrid showed up as press. After all, it is in the public’s interest to understand the “nuance” of McKenna’s position on “women’s issues” like the Reproductive Parity Act. (Explaining his positions was the purpose of the event.) Here’s what happened:

And I’m sure I stood out in my Pretty-Woman-business-casual attire. Nevertheless, his staff greeted me with polite acceptance when I identified myself as press, so I’d bet other reporters were allowed in the Statewide Women’s Leadership Luncheon, where McKenna was enthusiastically unveiling the “key role” women would play in implementing his “New Direction for Washington State,” should he become our next governor.

But his staff became politely unhelpful as soon as I identified myself as a Stranger reporter.

“This is private event and not for press,” one staffer told me. “You’ll have to move elsewhere.”

Holy fuck! McKenna is either astonishingly petty, bizarrely paranoid, or is just fucking frightened of The Stranger!

That’s just Not Very Gubernatorial.

What would he do as Governor? How would a cowering, frightened Rob McKenna be able to hold a press conference where Cienna, or Eli, or Dominic, or (OH MY GAWD!) GOLDY was present.

He might just pee his pants. And in front of all the “good” press, too!

Mark my words. If Rob McKenna is elected Governor, he will institute a new press credentialing process that will exclude any and all access to his office by sources on his media enemies list. This is why all the media should be outraged and all over McKenna for selectively excluding the press.

For the rest of us, here is some homework: Go to twitter and make the #NotGubernatorial a local trending hash tag. Other tags you might include: #wagov #waelex @robmckenna

Update: In which they “forget” to invite The Stranger again, but Goldy goes anyway.

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Another poll in WA-1

by Darryl — Thursday, 7/19/12, 1:32 pm

Two polls in one day! And another one supposedly on the way.

The second WA-1 poll today comes from PPP on behalf of Democracy For America, a group that backs Darcy Burner, but is “independent”. Take that as you wish.

The poll surveyed 521 likely primary voters (about a 4.3% MOE) on the 16th and 17th of July.

Results:

  • Koster (R) 48%
  • Burner (D) 17%
  • DelBene (D) 13%
  • Hobbs (D) 5%
  • Ruderman (D) 4%
  • Rauniyar (D) 1%
  • Ishmael (I) 1%
  • Undecided 11%

This poll is consistent with the previous poll in showing Darcy Burner with a small lead over Susan DelBene. It also shows Rudderman in 4th place among the Democrats. It is pretty clear that, of the Democrats, Hobbs, Ruderman, and Rauniyar are not much of a factor.

This poll differs from the previous one in showing a more difficult general election for Democrats, since Republican John Koster is at 48% with 11% undecided. While Republicans are more likely to be be decided in this particular race, it doesn’t take many to push Koster over 50%.

Given this poll and the previous on, I’d say the general election is a dead heat.

Update: More poll details here.

Here are some notes:

The survey found 34% Democrats, 39% Republicans and 28% Independent/Other. A weighted average of the earlier Strategies 360 poll and this poll gives:

  • Democrats 38.4%
  • Republicans 39.0%
  • Other 22.6%

Close, huh?

Interestingly, in this poll Darcy Burner gets the lion’s share of Democratic voters at 40% compared to 23% for DelBene. But DelBene gets 14% of the Independent/Other vote compared to Burner’s 9%.

Koster has 88% of Republicans locked-up; only 5% are undecided. Some 15% of Democrats and 16% of Independent/Others are undecided.

The oddest finding is that Koster received 50% of the (~68) non-White “votes”, but only 48% of the White “vote”. Huh?!? This is likely just sampling “error.”

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Poll Analysis: McKenna 42%, Inslee 41%

by Darryl — Thursday, 7/19/12, 1:06 pm

A new SurveyUSA poll (for King 5) has been released in the gubernatorial race between Rep. Jay Inslee (D) and AG Rob McKenna (R). The poll of 630 registered Washington voters (4% MOE) has McKenna up by a hair: 42% to Inslee’s 41%.

A Monte Carlo analysis of the poll results that used a million simulated elections found that Inslee won 413,294 times and McKenna won 573,952 times. This suggests that, if the election was held today, McKenna would be the winner with a 58.1% probability and Inslee would win with a 41.9% probability. Here is the distribution of election outcomes from the simulations:

SUSA-July

The new poll is a small improvement for Inslee, who was down by -2% and -3% in a pair of overlapping mid-June polls. The combined analysis of those two polls gave McKenna a 79.1% probability of beating Inslee in an election held in June.

Here is the polling history in the race to date:

GenericCongress19Jun12-19Jul12Washington

Although the race has tightened up considerably since last fall, the graph suggests that McKenna still maintains a narrow, but real, edge in the race.

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Primary poll for WA-1

by Darryl — Thursday, 7/19/12, 12:24 pm

Strategies 360 has released a new poll for the new Washington first congressional district. The poll of 500 likely voters (4.4 MOE) was conducted from 15 to 17 July.

Here are the results (with “leaners”):

  • Koster (R) 36%
  • Burner (D) 12%
  • DelBene (D) 11%
  • Hobbs (D) 7%
  • Ruderman (D) 3%
  • Rauniyar (D) 1%
  • Ishmael (I) 2%
  • Other candidate 2%
  • DK/NA/Refused 26%

A couple of points. Susan DelBene has certainly moved up since the previous poll, but Darcy Burner still maintains a small edge.

Laura Ruderman, who seems to generate as much “buzz”—even before MotherGate—as Burner and DelBene, is surprisingly weak at 3%.

John Koster has dropped 10% since the previous poll.

With the ballots in the mail this week and voting starting, it sure looks like a November contest between Koster and Burner or Koster and DelBene.

But we should have some more evidence soon…at Drinking Liberally this Tuesday, Goldy mentioned two other (non-candidate) polls that were in the field.

What does this poll say about the general election? The above table shows that Hobbs has a very slight edge over the sum of votes for Democratic voters. Furthermore, Larry Ishmael, the independent, is a past Republican challenger to Rep. Jay Inslee in the first, so we can probably “re-purpose” his 2% to the Koster column. (This isn’t quite true…the the crosstabs show Ishmael has about twice as many progressive supporters as conservative supporters!) These numbers make the new 1st CD a split district with a slight Republican lean.

On the other hand, the self-reported partisan make-up in the sample favors Democrats by 43% to 39%:

  • Democrat 27%
  • Leans D 16%
  • Republican 26%
  • Leans R 13%
  • Independent 13%
  • Other/DK/NA/Refused 5%

The evidence in the crosstabs looks somewhat favorable for a future Democratic Representative in the 1st CD. Of that 26% who didn’t know or didn’t answer who they support, the numbers split almost identically between conservative and progressive (about 6.6% of the total sample for each group). Moderates who didn’t offer a preference make up just under 8% of the total sample, whereas moderates who did have a preference, prefer a Democrat to a Republican 3 to 1.

So…until we have more evidence, this general election looks like a tight race with a slight edge for the Democratic candidate.

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