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Inslee hits McKenna hard

by Darryl — Thursday, 7/26/12, 2:51 pm

Gubernatorial candidate and former Congressman Jay Inslee released a quite positive introductory ad a couple of weeks ago:

The ad does a great job introducing him and his past service. It’s one of those ads that can build name recognition. That’s all good.

Now compare it to this latest ad that takes a quite different approach:

I like this ad in that it covers some of McKenna’s weaknesses that I have been highlighting recently—namely, his paranoid, vengeful bunker mentality with the press (and here and here) as well as his contemptuous attitude toward others (and here).

At least as a public figure, McKenna is not a very nice person, and this ad begins to needle at that chink in his armor.

The ad also picks up on another theme: McKenna’s statements of being unprepared in a couple of circumstances. This is probably excellent politics, but it isn’t a serious argument against McKenna. From what I can tell, McKenna does take his work seriously and is nearly always prepared.

So, why does a normally prepared candidate have to resort to saying he is unprepared? Quite simply, it allows him to dodge a troublesome question. He doesn’t have to lay out his position on health care reform or on gun control without first carefully constructing an answer designed to minimize any damage from unpopular beliefs he holds.

But, hell, if he is going to use “unprepared” as an excuse for dodging answers, it’s fair game to turn around and hit him for admitting he is unprepared!

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Poll Analysis: Lots of new polls…Romney gains a little more

by Darryl — Thursday, 7/26/12, 1:05 am


Obama Romney
99.0% probability of winning 1.0% probability of winning
Mean of 321 electoral votes Mean of 217 electoral votes

[Note: See update at the end of the post]

Last week’s analysis of state head-to-head polls showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney, 327 to 211 electoral votes and with a 99.6% probability of winning an election held then. With 18 new state head-to-head polls weighing in on the contest, Mitt Romney has gained a little more. Here are the polls:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
FL SurveyUSA 17-Jul 20-Jul 647 3.9 47.9 43.4 O+4.5
MI Rasmussen 23-Jul 23-Jul 500 4.5 48 42 O+6
MI Mitchell 23-Jul 23-Jul 825 3.4 44 45 R+1
MI PPP 21-Jul 23-Jul 579 4.1 53 39 O+14
MN SurveyUSA 17-Jul 20-Jul 552 4.3 45.9 39.7 O+6.2
NV WeAskAmerica 17-Jul 18-Jul 1092 3.0 49 43 O+6
NV Magellan Strategies 16-Jul 17-Jul 665 3.8 50 46 O+4
NJ Quinnipiac 09-Jul 15-Jul 1623 2.4 49 38 O+11
NM PPP 13-Jul 16-Jul 724 3.6 49 44 O+5
NY Quinnipiac 17-Jul 23-Jul 1779 2.3 55 32 O+23
NC Civitas 16-Jul 18-Jul 600 4.0 49 48 O+1
OH Rasmussen 18-Jul 18-Jul 500 4.5 47 45 O+2
PA PPP 21-Jul 23-Jul 758 3.6 49 43 O+6
PA Rasmussen 18-Jul 18-Jul 500 4.5 48 44 O+4
VA Rasmussen 16-Jul 17-Jul 500 4.5 47 46 O+1
VA Quinnipiac 10-Jul 16-Jul 1673 2.4 44 44 tie
WA SurveyUSA 16-Jul 17-Jul 630 4.0 46.0 37.3 O+8.7
WI WeAskAmerica 17-Jul 18-Jul 1162 2.9 49 42 O+7

Let’s get New Jersey and New York out of the way. They both have double digit leads for Obama.

Obama takes the latest Florida poll (+4.5%), giving him three of the five current polls, and a 62% probability of taking the state at this point.

In New Mexico Obama slips from +11 in the previous poll to a more moderate +5%. Even though a Romney victory at this point still seems unlikely, there is some hint at a softening of support for Obama:

ObamaRomney26Jun12-26Jul12New Mexico

Three polls in Michigan display remarkable heterogeneity. Obama takes one by double digits, one by single digits, and Romney takes one with a +1. The overall trend still looks more favorable for Obama:

ObamaRomney25Jun12-25Jul12Michigan

Obama gets a +6.2% in Minnesota which actually seems weak. But the graph of polls does not really indicate any radical change in support for Obama over the long run:

ObamaRomney25Jun12-25Jul12Minnesota

Nevada continues to trend Obama, with a +4% and a +6%.

North Carolina gives Obama a slim +1% lead over Romney, but Romney leads in three of the five current polls. At this point, Romney would take the state with 67% probability.

Obama gets a small +2% lead in the Ohio poll. Obama now leads in four consecutive polls for the state, dating back to early June.

Pennsylvania goes +4 and +6 for Obama in two new polls. He leads in all three current polls and would be expected to win the state with a 98.8% probability.

Two new Virginia polls suggest a very tight race. Obama leads Romney by +1% in one and the other is a tie. The five current polls give Obama a slight edge and a 58% probability in an election held now.

In Wisconsin, the latest poll goes +7% for Obama. Obama leads by about the same amount in all three current polls.

Here in Washington Obama is up by +8.7% over Romney. The longer trend strongly hints at an Obama victory here:

ObamaRomney26Jun12-26Jul12Washington

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,012 times and Romney wins 988 times (including the 179 ties). Obama receives (on average) 321 (-6) to Romney’s 217 (+6) electoral votes. Obama has a 99.0% (-0.6%) probability of winning and Romney has a 1.0% (+0.6%) probability of winning an election held now.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations: [Read more…]

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 7/24/12, 5:51 pm

DLBottle

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

Also, if your name is Barack, and you happen to be in Seattle for the night, don’t be shy about an unscheduled visit…. I mean, dude, it wouldn’t be the first time a (former) presidential candidate dropped in on us unannounced (Gen. Welsey Clark).

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter meets tonight, the Burien chapter meets on Wednesday, and the Woodinville chapter meets on Thursday.

With 230 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and four in both Oregon and Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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Poll: Inslee 43% McKenna 36%

by Darryl — Tuesday, 7/24/12, 11:59 am

A new Elway poll (first reported on Publicola) has been released for the 2012 Washington state gubernatorial contest. The poll of 405 registered voters (5% MOE) surveyed from the 18th to the 22nd of July has former Democratic congressman Jay Inslee leading Republican state AG Rob McKenna by 43% to 36%.

The poll reflects a turn-around in the race that has, until now, mostly been led by McKenna:

GenericCongress24Jun12-24Jul12Washington

If you squint a little, you can probably discern a long-term trend away from a McKenna and toward Inslee.

The regional breakdown in the new poll has Inslee leading McKenna in Seattle (+33%), King County outside Seattle (+8%), Pierce and Kitsap (5%), and North Sound (16%). McKenna leads in Eastern Washington (+9), and they are tied “South and West of Puget Sound.”

As you might imagine, Inslee leads among women (+10%), just as he did in the previous Elway poll (+2%) and last weeks Survey USA poll (+9%). More surprisingly, he now leads among men (+3%), reversing McKenna +5% lead in the previous Elway poll and +11% lead in the Survey USA poll.

Elway chalks up the lead change to a shift in preference among independent voters:

Most of the difference between last month’s findings and these is accounted for by a collapse in McKenna support among Independent voters. McKenna led among Independents by 42-29% in June, but Inslee led Independents by 31-29% this month. Meanwhile, the number of undecided Independents jumped from 29% last month to 40% this month. Since Independents are necessary to winning an election here, this volatility indicates a see-saw battle to November.

I subjected the Elway results to a Monte Carlo analysis of a million simulated elections. The results have a great deal of uncertainty as only 322 voters expressed a preference. The final tally gives Inslee 865,677 wins to McKenna’s 126,742 wins. That is, if the election was held now, the poll results suggests Inslee’s lead would hold with a 87.2% probability, and McKenna would win with a 12.8% probability.

Since Statisticians usually consider 95% probability as the cut-off, Inslee’s lead is “within the margin of error.” Here is the distribution of election outcomes from the simulated elections:

Elway-July

Last week’s Survey USA poll (that I analyzed here) was taken on the 16th and 17th of July, immediately before the Elway poll, and had McKenna leading Inslee 42% to 41%. The poll was a little larger than the Elway poll, with 525 of 630 registered voters expressed a preference for Inslee or McKenna.

What happens if we do a similar analysis using both polls jointly? After a million simulated elections, Inslee came out on top 699,377 times and McKenna won 291,968 times. Thus, Inslee would be expected to win a July election with a probability of 70.5% to McKenna’s 29.5%. Here is the distribution of election outcomes:

Elway-SUSA-July

Statistically, the race is still a tie, of course.

A final point of interest is the “likeability” measure that has Inslee up 34% to 27%. Unfortunately, this wasn’t reported for the previous Elway poll. One must wonder if the reports of McKenna’s negative interactions with the media are taking a toll. Additionally Jay Inslee’s excellent “introductory” ad that began airing on July 8th has probably helped his image and name recognition among voters.

A plausible reason for McKenna’s erosion of support is the recent Supreme Court ruling on, and the ensuing media coverage of McKenna’s role in the lawsuit against “Obamacare.” Just as voters are getting “in the mood” for the 2012 election season in a year with a polarizing presidential election, the ruling has provided a dose of hard partisan information about McKenna.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 7/21/12, 12:00 am

Thom: Some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Sam Seder: Rush Limbaugh’s Batman The Dark Knight Rises Villain is a Liberal conspiracy!!!!!

Lawrence: Anti-tax lobbyist Grover Norquist’s worst nightmare….

Young Turks: Darcy Burner–the aggressive progressive.

Kimmel: This week in unnecessary censorship.

Sam Seder: Nutcase IA Republican appoints herself Senator of Alt. USA.

Thom: How to marry a corporation.

ONN: Week in review.

Susie Sampson does The Young Turks.

Sam Seder: Shrub on his time as President: “8 years was awesome!”.

Thom and Pap: Bain connection to death squads.

Jon on Egyptian tomato throwers.

Mitt’s World:

  • Ed: Desperate Romney camp to unleash kitchen sink attacks at Obama.
  • Mitt dancing around the issues, Volume I.
  • Mitt dancing around the issues, Volume II.
  • Ann Telnaes: Caught on kiss-off cam.
  • Olbermann: Ann Romney defends decision to not release more tax returns.
  • Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, the New Hampshire verse:
  • Alyona: Mitt’s refusal to give tax returns.
  • Young Turks: Tricky Mitt…you’re not a crook, right?
  • Mark Fiore: Myttlympics.
  • Maddow: Burden of tax return question exceeds Romney’s political skill.
  • CNN: Romney’s charges of “cronyism” are false.
  • SlateTV: Mitt fails to invite Sarah Palin!
  • Even Republicans think Mitt is hiding something.
  • Sam Seder: What is the secret behind Mitt’s Magical IRA?
  • Obama campaign apologizes to Mitt Romney:
  • Maddow: Romney campaign in distress.
  • Vetting Mitt’s Veeps: Marco Rubio.
  • Young Turks: Mitt Romney’s new Latino ad starring Craig Romney
  • Maddow: Racism and the “Southern Strategy” is Mitt Romney’s new political tactic!
  • Lawrence’s Day in News: Romney’s campaign desperation.
  • Ann Telnaes: Romney will only release two years of tax returns.
  • What does retroactively retired mean?
  • Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Arizona edition:

Thom: Why would anyone proudly call themselves a Conservative?

Sam Seder with Matt Taibbi: You should be freaking out over LIBOR scandal!.

ONN: This week in history.

Thom: Justice Scalia tells America to, “Get over it”.

Michele Bachmann Investigates:

  • SlateTV: Michele Bachmann still pushing Muslim Brotherhood conspiracy despite GOP disaproval.
  • Sam Seder: Michele Bachmann suggests Huma Abedin, is a secret undercover Muslim agent!
  • Jon: Michele Bachmann and Huma Abedin’s Muslim brotherhood membership.
  • Young Turks: John McCain defends Huma Abedin from Senate floor.

Young Turks: Oregon man strip for TSA.

Alyona: Texas Voter ID IS like a poll tax.

Ed and Pap: Gov. Rick Scott’s criminal history will doom voter purge.

White House: West Wing Week.

FAUX Lies:

  • Young Turks: FAUX News latest attack on Obama.
  • Sam Seder: The FAUX News / GOP lie & the perfect truth behind Obama’s “You didn’t build that”.
  • Mitt Romney will say anything to get elected.
  • Newsy: Bachmann claims Muslim group is infiltrating U.S. government.
  • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Bill-O Calls Obama A “social justice anti-capitalist”.

Newsy: Nutcase Sheriff Arpaio claims Obama’s birth certificate is fake.

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Maddow: House GOP targets defenseless D.C. with anti-abortion agenda.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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This week in McKenna’s Stranger derangement syndrome

by Darryl — Friday, 7/20/12, 3:16 pm

This morning, The Stranger’s Dominic Holden wrote (my emphasis):

As Attorney General Rob McKenna explains this morning, “The national political debate sometimes oversimplifies and narrowly defines ‘women’s issues.'” That’s according to a press release that he didn’t send to The Stranger (but he did send to other media outlets) as part of his campaign to be Washington’s Republican governor.

So…McKenna is still singling out at least one media source and being an asshole to them.

But, since other media got the press release, The Stranger’s Cienna Madrid showed up as press. After all, it is in the public’s interest to understand the “nuance” of McKenna’s position on “women’s issues” like the Reproductive Parity Act. (Explaining his positions was the purpose of the event.) Here’s what happened:

And I’m sure I stood out in my Pretty-Woman-business-casual attire. Nevertheless, his staff greeted me with polite acceptance when I identified myself as press, so I’d bet other reporters were allowed in the Statewide Women’s Leadership Luncheon, where McKenna was enthusiastically unveiling the “key role” women would play in implementing his “New Direction for Washington State,” should he become our next governor.

But his staff became politely unhelpful as soon as I identified myself as a Stranger reporter.

“This is private event and not for press,” one staffer told me. “You’ll have to move elsewhere.”

Holy fuck! McKenna is either astonishingly petty, bizarrely paranoid, or is just fucking frightened of The Stranger!

That’s just Not Very Gubernatorial.

What would he do as Governor? How would a cowering, frightened Rob McKenna be able to hold a press conference where Cienna, or Eli, or Dominic, or (OH MY GAWD!) GOLDY was present.

He might just pee his pants. And in front of all the “good” press, too!

Mark my words. If Rob McKenna is elected Governor, he will institute a new press credentialing process that will exclude any and all access to his office by sources on his media enemies list. This is why all the media should be outraged and all over McKenna for selectively excluding the press.

For the rest of us, here is some homework: Go to twitter and make the #NotGubernatorial a local trending hash tag. Other tags you might include: #wagov #waelex @robmckenna

Update: In which they “forget” to invite The Stranger again, but Goldy goes anyway.

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Another poll in WA-1

by Darryl — Thursday, 7/19/12, 1:32 pm

Two polls in one day! And another one supposedly on the way.

The second WA-1 poll today comes from PPP on behalf of Democracy For America, a group that backs Darcy Burner, but is “independent”. Take that as you wish.

The poll surveyed 521 likely primary voters (about a 4.3% MOE) on the 16th and 17th of July.

Results:

  • Koster (R) 48%
  • Burner (D) 17%
  • DelBene (D) 13%
  • Hobbs (D) 5%
  • Ruderman (D) 4%
  • Rauniyar (D) 1%
  • Ishmael (I) 1%
  • Undecided 11%

This poll is consistent with the previous poll in showing Darcy Burner with a small lead over Susan DelBene. It also shows Rudderman in 4th place among the Democrats. It is pretty clear that, of the Democrats, Hobbs, Ruderman, and Rauniyar are not much of a factor.

This poll differs from the previous one in showing a more difficult general election for Democrats, since Republican John Koster is at 48% with 11% undecided. While Republicans are more likely to be be decided in this particular race, it doesn’t take many to push Koster over 50%.

Given this poll and the previous on, I’d say the general election is a dead heat.

Update: More poll details here.

Here are some notes:

The survey found 34% Democrats, 39% Republicans and 28% Independent/Other. A weighted average of the earlier Strategies 360 poll and this poll gives:

  • Democrats 38.4%
  • Republicans 39.0%
  • Other 22.6%

Close, huh?

Interestingly, in this poll Darcy Burner gets the lion’s share of Democratic voters at 40% compared to 23% for DelBene. But DelBene gets 14% of the Independent/Other vote compared to Burner’s 9%.

Koster has 88% of Republicans locked-up; only 5% are undecided. Some 15% of Democrats and 16% of Independent/Others are undecided.

The oddest finding is that Koster received 50% of the (~68) non-White “votes”, but only 48% of the White “vote”. Huh?!? This is likely just sampling “error.”

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Poll Analysis: McKenna 42%, Inslee 41%

by Darryl — Thursday, 7/19/12, 1:06 pm

A new SurveyUSA poll (for King 5) has been released in the gubernatorial race between Rep. Jay Inslee (D) and AG Rob McKenna (R). The poll of 630 registered Washington voters (4% MOE) has McKenna up by a hair: 42% to Inslee’s 41%.

A Monte Carlo analysis of the poll results that used a million simulated elections found that Inslee won 413,294 times and McKenna won 573,952 times. This suggests that, if the election was held today, McKenna would be the winner with a 58.1% probability and Inslee would win with a 41.9% probability. Here is the distribution of election outcomes from the simulations:

SUSA-July

The new poll is a small improvement for Inslee, who was down by -2% and -3% in a pair of overlapping mid-June polls. The combined analysis of those two polls gave McKenna a 79.1% probability of beating Inslee in an election held in June.

Here is the polling history in the race to date:

GenericCongress19Jun12-19Jul12Washington

Although the race has tightened up considerably since last fall, the graph suggests that McKenna still maintains a narrow, but real, edge in the race.

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Primary poll for WA-1

by Darryl — Thursday, 7/19/12, 12:24 pm

Strategies 360 has released a new poll for the new Washington first congressional district. The poll of 500 likely voters (4.4 MOE) was conducted from 15 to 17 July.

Here are the results (with “leaners”):

  • Koster (R) 36%
  • Burner (D) 12%
  • DelBene (D) 11%
  • Hobbs (D) 7%
  • Ruderman (D) 3%
  • Rauniyar (D) 1%
  • Ishmael (I) 2%
  • Other candidate 2%
  • DK/NA/Refused 26%

A couple of points. Susan DelBene has certainly moved up since the previous poll, but Darcy Burner still maintains a small edge.

Laura Ruderman, who seems to generate as much “buzz”—even before MotherGate—as Burner and DelBene, is surprisingly weak at 3%.

John Koster has dropped 10% since the previous poll.

With the ballots in the mail this week and voting starting, it sure looks like a November contest between Koster and Burner or Koster and DelBene.

But we should have some more evidence soon…at Drinking Liberally this Tuesday, Goldy mentioned two other (non-candidate) polls that were in the field.

What does this poll say about the general election? The above table shows that Hobbs has a very slight edge over the sum of votes for Democratic voters. Furthermore, Larry Ishmael, the independent, is a past Republican challenger to Rep. Jay Inslee in the first, so we can probably “re-purpose” his 2% to the Koster column. (This isn’t quite true…the the crosstabs show Ishmael has about twice as many progressive supporters as conservative supporters!) These numbers make the new 1st CD a split district with a slight Republican lean.

On the other hand, the self-reported partisan make-up in the sample favors Democrats by 43% to 39%:

  • Democrat 27%
  • Leans D 16%
  • Republican 26%
  • Leans R 13%
  • Independent 13%
  • Other/DK/NA/Refused 5%

The evidence in the crosstabs looks somewhat favorable for a future Democratic Representative in the 1st CD. Of that 26% who didn’t know or didn’t answer who they support, the numbers split almost identically between conservative and progressive (about 6.6% of the total sample for each group). Moderates who didn’t offer a preference make up just under 8% of the total sample, whereas moderates who did have a preference, prefer a Democrat to a Republican 3 to 1.

So…until we have more evidence, this general election looks like a tight race with a slight edge for the Democratic candidate.

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Why does the media allow McKenna to get away with this?

by Darryl — Wednesday, 7/18/12, 4:17 pm

There were some “legs” on the story of McKenna’s young staffer who made some unfortunate Tweets.

That’s the “big story” in the region’s media this week, but I think the media has missed the real story.

Kathlyn Ehl, who recently graduated from the UW, was hired by the McKenna campaign. But while she was a student, she created these cringe-worthy tweets:

Kathlyn Ehl @KathlynEhl
shut up and speak english #asians

and

Kathlyn Ehl @KathlynEhl
If it takes you an entire green light to walk in front of my car, GET A WHEELCHAIR #toooldtowalk

The tweets were brought to light on Slog.

Given how the press initially ignored stories like a County Executive candidate who punched his mother, and a Lands Commissioner engaging in sexual harassment, I figured the press would completely ignore this story…at least for a few days. In the mean time, the McKenna campaign would “disappear” the offending tweets and, perhaps, the staffer, without comment.

But the media has been over it. KUOW put it in their top-o-the-hour newscasts. Other media sources carried the KOMO story or the AP release. Even the Seattle Times had a story up by Monday evening.

Monday afternoon, the McKenna campaign did its own press release:

The tweets sent by a member of my campaign staff, Kathlyn Ehl, which were reported today were offensive and inappropriate. I am glad to see that she has apologized for her actions,” the statement reads. “The fact that she made the comments before joining my campaign does not make them any less hurtful to Asian Americans and the elderly. They were insensitive and wrong regardless of their context. She has done the right thing by apologizing. I am hopeful that she has learned a humbling lesson that will give her greater perspective about having charity in her heart when considering the challenges faced by others.

And by this morning, the offending policy assistant was gone, as was revealed by another McKenna campaign press release.

So, good on you, media, for even noticing. I’m not sure what the lesson is from that except, perhaps, that Anthony Weiner might still be in Congress if he had had the foresight to beat the shit out of someone instead of tweeting a photo of his bulging briefs.

But here’s what I think is the part of this story that should outrage the fuck out of the media (emphasis added):

Oddly, even though McKenna’s comments respond directly to a story we broke, his campaign did not send the statement to The Stranger. Instead, we obtained them from another source.

…and this…

I’ve posted [the McKenna campaign’s] statement—which, of course, the McKenna campaign didn’t send to The Stranger, even though we broke this story….

REALLY, McKenna??? Fucking REALLY?!? You want to be Governor of our state, and you persist in having a media “enemies list?”

This certainly paints him a small, petty man who lacks the temperament to be Governor.

McKenna believes he can pick who is and isn’t media and who is and isn’t a reporter.

What I don’t understand is why the area’s media allow McKenna to get away unscathed with this kind of bullshit.

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Poll Analysis: Romney gains…to 0.4%

by Darryl — Tuesday, 7/17/12, 7:41 pm


Obama Romney
99.6% probability of winning 0.4% probability of winning
Mean of 327 electoral votes Mean of 211 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 334 to 204 electoral votes in an election held now. Obama would be expected to win the hypothetical election with 100% probability.

Since then eight new polls have been released:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO Purple Poll 09-Jul 13-Jul 600 4.0 45 44 O+1
FL Purple Poll 09-Jul 13-Jul 600 4.0 45 48 R+3
FL Mason Dixon 09-Jul 11-Jul 800 3.5 46 45 O+1
IA PPP 12-Jul 15-Jul 1131 2.9 48 43 O+5
NH U NH 05-Jul 15-Jul 470 4.3 49 45 O+4
NY Siena 10-Jul 15-Jul 758 3.6 61 34 O+27
OH Purple Poll 09-Jul 13-Jul 600 4.0 48 45 O+3
VA Purple Poll 09-Jul 13-Jul 600 4.0 46 44 O+2

Colorado offers Obama a +1% edge over Romney, 45% to 44%. The larger trend looks good, but not great, for Obama:
ObamaRomney17Jun12-17Jul12Colorado

Two Florida polls split. Romney leads Obama by +3% in the Purple Strategies Poll, and Obama leads by +1 in the Mason-Dixon poll. The combined results of the five current polls suggest Obama would win now with a 68.4% probability. But the polling trends don’t favor either candidate. There is simply too much volatility:

ObamaRomney17Jun12-17Jul12Florida

Iowa gives Obama a +5% lead over Romney, and the lead in the past two polls. The trend is no comfort to either candidate. Obama has some good polls, they are almost all from one pollster (PPP):

ObamaRomney17Jun12-17Jul12Iowa

New Hampshire gives Obama a small lead over Romney by +4%, giving Obama a six-consecutive poll streak going back to early April.

Why do pollsters even bother with polling New York where Obama has a double-digit +27% lead over Romney? I guess it’s a near-free-bee while polling other state races. (Still…I’d rather see a new poll in, say, South Carolina.)

Ohio puts Obama over Romney by a tight +3%. That makes three in a row for Obama, going back to early June. The overall trend looks pretty favorable for Obama:

ObamaRomney17Jun12-17Jul12Ohio

Virginia has Obama up by +2% over Romney, and taking both July polls. On balance, the polling looks slightly better for Obama:
ObamaRomney17Jun12-17Jul12Virginia

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,646 times and Romney wins 354 times (including the 60 ties). Obama receives (on average) 327 (-7) to Romney’s 211 (+7) electoral votes. For that hypothetical election held now, Obama would have a 99.6% (-0.4%) probability of winning and Romney a 0.4% (+0.4%) probability of winning.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 7/17/12, 5:27 pm

DLBottle
Our summer and the political campaigns are all heating up. So please join us for a thirst-quenching evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking liberally meets every Tuesday night. Drinking Liberally Tacoma meets on Thursday. Also on Thursday, the Spokane Chapter is back!

With 226 chapters of Living Liberally, including eleven in Washington state and four more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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The weekend feeding frenzy

by Darryl — Sunday, 7/15/12, 4:07 pm

Some hours after I posted the Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! there were interesting new developments in the 2012 Presidential race that can be appreciated best visually.

It began with this advertisement from the Obama campaign that had everyone all a-twitter:

David Kurtz at TPM, in particular, is awestruck by the ad:”One for the History Books” he titles a post, and at one point he comparing it to FDR LBJ’s Daisy ad (this one).

Locally, The Stranger‘s Paul Constant expressed some enthusiasm for the ad (his emphasis, not mine):

Holy fucking shit. This is the most brutal attack ad I’ve seen in a long, long time. It minces the hell out of Romney’s offshore fortunes and his record as a jobs exporter (in the private and public sectors). And it makes fun of Romney’s singing voice, turning his version of “America, the Beautiful” into a symbol of his warped view of patriotism

The Romney campaign hit back with an ad that can only be described as pathetic:

The thesis is that by hitting Mitt Romeny hard on the Bain thing, it somehow negates Obama’s “Hope and Change” message of the last campaign. The writers obviously try to confuse Obama, the President, and Obama, the candidate.

For over three years, Republicans have been warning about how President Obama was “changing America into something unrecognizable.” Now, the Romney camp is “warning” America that Obama is just like other candidates.

It is conceivable that this ad actually helps Obama, by defusing the “changing America into something unrecognizable” argument for folks who don’t recognize that campaigns are not the same thing as policy.

The weekend has brought out a plethora of politicos making the rounds on the talk shows, including bulldogs like Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Karl Rove—who has the naked audacity to “warn” Obama about negative campaigning. That’s hilarious!

But of all the interviews, the ones with Romney campaign senior adviser Ed Gillespie are the most interesting.

In an interview on CNN’s State of the Union, Gillespie stated (my emphasis):

“He is going to release them [2 years of tax returns], Candy, we’ve made that clear, and that’s the standard that Senator McCain, Republican nominee in the last election said was the relevant standard. It’s the standard that Senator John Kerry as the Democratic nominee said was the standard.”

First…he really ought to rethink citing the losers of the past two elections as the model. Just sayin’.

Another problem is that John Kerry did not say that was the standard. Gillespie was off by an order of magnitude. Kerry released 20 years of tax returns. So, about that “standard”….

And on NBC’s Meet the Press we get this gem when David Gregory asked about Mitt benefiting financially from Bain even while on leave:

He actually retired retroactively…

Watch the 00:01:57 clip:

The Twitterosphere has gone bananas with the hash tag #retroactively.

I’ll close by pointing out two things.

First, when the Romney campaign has to “explain” the subtly of Romney’s position during the “bad” Bain years by using a five syllable adverb, they’re not just losing the campaign battle, they’re fucking losing their base!

Secondly, I’ll point out again what a precarious position Romney is now in. We know he was drawing a six-figure salary for, apparently, being on leave; for being completely detached from decisions at Bain. But the media smells blood in that—they will relentlessly attempt to unearth evidence that Romney did make some big decisions. And they’ll probably find something.

But even if they don’t, Romney still has the (relatively unexamined) implications found in Gregory’s question: As the owner of and sole shareholder in Bain and other spin-off companies, Romney was at a minimum receiving salary and investment profit from outsourcing, layoffs, liquidations, the offshore tax havens and, apparently, disposal of fetuses.

That he solely owned Bain through 2001 is undisputed fact. It just makes him look like a weasel to absolve himself of all responsibility, while earning millions, because he was on leave. Or retired.&

&retroactively.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 7/13/12, 11:58 pm

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News profanity hypocrisy.

Pap: Republicans bury their heads in the sand on climate change.

Young Turks: Nutjobber Rep. Michele Bachmann, “Muslim Brotherhood infiltrating America”.

NAACP Convention:

  • Mitt Romney’s Black base.
  • Organs make political speeches better:
  • Slate News: Romney gets booed.
  • Young Turks: Joe Biden’s NAACP speech.
  • Young Turks: Mitt Romney NAACP speech conspiracy theories.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: David Brooks and “Meritocracies”.

ONN: Ron Paul makes campaign stop in whimsical jalopy.

Young Turks: Climate change or just hot weather?

Jimmy Kimmel: Boehner’s tears.

Ann Telnaes: Empowering women with choice and education.

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Mitt’s Olympic Trial:

  • Slate News: Is Mitt Romney lying about leaving Bain?
  • Young Turks: When did Mitt Romney leave Bain.
  • Vetting Mitt’s Veeps: Sarah Palin:
  • Ann Telnaes: Dick Cheney fundraiser.
  • Newsy: When did Mitt leave?
  • Young Turks: Obama campaign’s devastating, simple strategy to attack Romney.
  • Jenn: Mitt Romney is unworthy of the Presidency.
  • Maddow: Romney paid as a do-nothing President?!?
  • Bill Press: DNC on Romney’s ‘ludicrous and shocking’ claims about stimulus money
  • John Oliver: Mitt Romney is not boring.
  • Young Turks: Where in the world is Mitt’s Money.
  • Maddow: Ghosts of Bush Administration haunt Romney’s campaign.
  • Mitt’s Bain secret exposed!
  • Barely Political: An iPhone 4Mitt:
  • Daily Kos Radio: Bain-a-palooza
  • Thom and Pap: Romney caught Lying Again & Again & Again

Stephanie Miller: A Sarah Palin election sound bite.

Sam Seder: Rick Scott’s vision seems to be “Tuberculosis For Everyone!”

Thom: Do we need the Disclose Act or a Constitutional amendment?

Sam Seder: Ron and Rand’s internet manifesto.

Maddow: “Scott Brown claims Clinton, Biden call him!

Mark Fiore: The Godawful Particle.

Papantonio & Lizz Winstead: Lizz Free or Die.

Ann Telnaes: Boehner gets his health-care facts wrong.

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

LePage-turner:

  • America’s STUPIDEST Governor??? LePage (R-ME) doubles down on comparing ‘Obamacare’ to the Holocaust (via TalkingPointsMemo).
  • Young Turks: IRS=Gestapo.

Threatening the First Lady!?!

Greenman: Welcome to the rest of our lives:

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Maddow: Reprieve for Mississippi’s last abortion clinic.

Alyona: Whale Wars.

Young Turks: Obama’s “biggest mistake” during Charlie Rose interview.

Pap and Cliff Schecter on offshore banking scams:

  • Part I.
  • Part III.
  • Part III.

White House: West Wing Week.

Kimmel: This week in unnecessary censorship.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Poll Analysis: No gains as Romney trails way behind

by Darryl — Friday, 7/13/12, 3:54 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 334 electoral votes Mean of 204 electoral votes

My previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Romney by 327 to 211 electoral votes, and with a 99.9% probability of winning an election held then.

Since then, eleven new polls covering nine states have been released:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA Field Poll 21-Jun 02-Jul 848 3.4 55 37 O+18
FL Rasmussen 09-Jul 09-Jul 500 4.5 45 46 R+1
ME Critical Insights 20-Jun 25-Jun 615 4.0 49 35 O+14
NM WeAskAmerica 09-Jul 10-Jul 1295 2.8 51 40 O+11
NC PPP 05-Jul 08-Jul 775 3.5 47 46 O+1
NC PNA 01-Jul 08-Jul 500 4.4 48 49 R+1
ND Rasmussen 10-Jul 11-Jul 400 5.0 36 51 R+15
PA WeAskAmerica 09-Jul 10-Jul 1227 2.8 47 40 O+7
VA PPP 05-Jul 08-Jul 647 3.9 50 42 O+8
WI Marquette 05-Jul 08-Jul 810 3.5 50.6 43.3 O+7.3
WI PPP 05-Jul 08-Jul 1057 3.3 50 44 O+6

California (+18%) and Maine (+14%) for Obama and North Dakota (+15%) for Romney are strongholds.

I probably shouldn’t be surprised any longer on how solid New Mexico is for Obama at +11%. The polling history backs the new poll up:
ObamaRomney13Jun12-13Jul12New Mexico

Weeks after the unsuccessful recall of their Republican Governor, Wisconsin seems to be holding for Obama. Both new polls have Obama’s lead just outside the margin of error:
ObamaRomney13Jun12-13Jul12Wisconsin

Romney goes up by +1 in this week’s Florida poll, but Obama still takes three of the four current polls for the state. Obama would be expected to win Florida right now with a 91% probability.

Obama and Romney split North Carolina this week at one poll apiece. In the past month of NC polls, Romney takes three and Obama takes two. The simulation analysis suggests that Romney would win the state (now) with a 59.5% probability.

Once again, a Pennsylvania poll puts Obama up. Obama has lead in both Pennsylvania polls taken over the past month. In fact, Obama has led in the past 14 consecutive PA polls—all the way back to early February.

Virginia gives Obama a +8% lead over Romney. But Romney lead by a smaller margin in a much bigger current poll. The two polls, taken together, have the race in a dead tie (Obama won 50,112 times, Romney, 49,888 times). It is difficult discern a solid trend. One could argue Obama maintains an advantage, and one can argue that Romney has turned the state around:

ObamaRomney13Jun12-13Jul12Virginia

So, what would happen if the presidential election was held today?

A Monte Carlo analysis of state head-to-head polls, using the rules of the Electoral College suggests that President Barack Obama would almost certainly beat Mitt Romney.

Now, Obama would receive a mean of 334 (+7) electoral votes to Romney’s 204 (-7). Of the 100,000 simulated elections, Obama won 99,976 times and Romney won 24 times.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]

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