Over at Slog, Paul Constant posts two new political ads, one from the Romney camp and one from Obama’s camp.

Let’s try an experiment.

Each ad has brief footage of President Obama. Can you tell which ad is attacking Obama just by looking at a screen capture of him?

Ad one:

Ad two:

Now, I realize that it is common to alter the shade and focus, and add effects to political hit ads. Color is typically washed out to display the opponent as less appealing, generic and gray. This can be seen in Obama’s ads where Romney ends up with a green-blue hue and raster lines running through the scene, giving an Orwellian feel (with, perhaps, a touch of Max Headroom).

How do the Romney people make Obama less appealing? They render him out of focus and darken his face.

Huh…why do you think they did that?

Here are the ads:

From last night’s Drinking Liberally:

Just before the June, 2010 Washington State Republican Party convention, WSRP chair Luke Esser sent a pledge letter out to the G.O.P. senatorial candidates who were challenging Sen. Patty Murray (my emphasis):

We the undersigned Republican candidates for U.S. Senate herby urge the Washington State Republican Party to not make a pre-primary endorsement or nomination of any candidate in this year’s race for U.S. Senate, and to offer equal access to party resources for all Republican candidates. A pre-primary endorsement or nomination would only serve to divide our party at a time when we all need to be united in the effort to defeat Patty Murray. [….]

As Esser explained to Politico:

I thought it would be a mistake for anybody to win an endorsement. I think the body and the state party believe at this point that we should have a competitive and vigorous primary. May the best candidate win.

That’s some pathetic spin. The back story is that the Teabaggers were highly energized with a strong presence at the 2010 convention. The Teabaggers were pushing for a Clint Diddier nomination over latecomer Dino Rossi. Diddier had just earned Sarah Palin’s endorsement. A nomination fight would have have gotten ugly!

There’s only one problem with not nominating anyone in 2010. Take it away, Goldy (emphasis in original):

In what could turn out to be massive political blunder with far-reaching consequences, a question has been raised as to whether Mitt Romney can legally qualify to appear on the Washington ballot under existing state law:

WAC 434-215-165 Presidential nominations by major political parties.

Nominations for president and vice-president by major political parties are conducted at each party’s national convention. Immediately following the convention, each party must submit a certificate of nomination and list of electors to the secretary of state in order to place the nominees on the presidential general election ballot.

That is the procedure by which presidential candidates from “major political parties” qualify for Washington’s general election ballot. But according to a public records request that was forwarded my way, the Washington State Republican Party may no longer be a major party:

RCW 29A.04.086 tells us that “”Major political party” means a political party of which at least one nominee for president, vice president, United States senator, or a statewide office received at least five percent of the total vote cast at the last preceding state general election in an even-numbered year.”

The problem for the state G.O.P. is that the Senate race was the only state-wide race in 2010. And, as far as anyone can tell, and consistent with Esser’s pledge letter and statement, there was no actual Republican nominee for statewide office in 2010.

The implication is that the WSRP is now, technically, a minor party in Washington state.

Why is this important? Well…it is embarrassing. Republicans losing major party status will be the laughing stock of Washington state…with some assistance from the Teabaggers, Sarah Palin, and Dino Rossi’s timorousness in announcing his run.

But the other, potentially more serious consequence, is that the WSRP would be required to nominate a presidential candidate according to the rules for a minor party:

(2) In order to nominate candidates for the offices of president and vice president of the United States, United States senator, United States representative, or any statewide office, a nominating convention shall obtain and submit to the filing officer the signatures of at least one thousand registered voters of the state of Washington.

and signatures must…

(7) Be submitted to the appropriate filing officer not later than one week following the adjournment of the convention at which the nominations were made.

The 2012 WSRP State Convention ended on June 2. Oopsiedoodles!

So, unless the state Republicans submitted those 1,000 signatures and complied with all the other requirements of RCW 29A.20.161, Mitt Romney is not eligible to be on the Washington state general election ballot.

Should that happen, the Washington state Republicans will be the laughing stock of the nation.

Please join us for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

Tonight we will be joined by Secretary of State candidate, past Public Delegate to the United Nations, and former two-term Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels.

(During his last visit to Drinking Liberally, Mayor Nickels presented the chapter with a “Republican St” street sign. It still hangs over the bar, plastered with liberal political stickers.)

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter also meets tonight. The Spokane chapter and Drinking Liberally Tacoma meet this Thursday. On Monday, the Yakima, South Bellevue and Olympia chapters meet.

With 230 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and four in both Oregon and Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

Olympic GOLD:

• London Mayor dings Mitt (via Crooks and Liars).
• Sam Seder: Mitt’s blunders.
• Mitt #RomneyShambles
• SlateTV: Mitt’s no good, very bad week.
• Thom: Talking in code.
• “Was it something I said?” #RomneyShambles.
• Sam Seder: Has there ever been a worse Presidential candidate?
• Pap: Mitt Romney, The Olympic Ass Clown
• ‘Unbelievable,’ ‘Incomprehensible’: Krauthammer (!!!) slams Romney over Olympics comment.
• Michelle shows Mitt how it’s done.

Mark Fiore: ALEC Rock:

Voter Disenfranchisement:

• Alyona’s Tool Time Award: PA for it’s voter ID law.
• SlateTV: Pennsylvania’s Voter ID Law comes under Federal scrutiny as Republicans admit Mitt agenda
• Charlie Crist blasts Rick Scott over voter disenfranchisement (via Crooks and Liars).

Obama: Weekly Address.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Maryland edition.

Guns and Violence:

• Ann Telnaes: Our desensitization to violence.
• Mark Fiore: Gun Safety.
• Pap: The gun industry’s license to murder.
• Obama and Mitt square off on gun control.

Thom with Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Roy Zimmerman: Beer Party Anthem for patriots.

Context Matters:

• Stephen supports Mitt’s very, very honest ads. (via Crooks and Liars).
• Jon on Mitt’s phony, “you didn’t build that” attacks (via Crooks and Liars).
• Young Turks: About that ad.
• Obama: “I believe”.
• Ezra Klein (for Maddow): Quoting out of context (via Crooks and Liars).
• Stephen defends Romney’s “Anglo Saxon” remark (via Crooks and Liars).

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Bachmann on her witch hunt.

White House: West Wing Week.

Homophobic Food:

• Jonathan Mann: Screw You, Chick-Fil-A.
• Conan: Chick-Fil-A’s New Mascot—Chaz The Intolerant Chicken
• Stephen is a Chick-Fil-A culture warroir (via Crooks and Liars).

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Zina Sanders: Michele Bachman’s Christian Crusades:

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican Indiana edition.

Jon fingers some assholes.

More Mitt:

• Ann Telnaes: If dodgeball were an Olympic sport.
• Mitt won’t reveal what he’s hiding in his tax returns.
• Alyona: MItt’s foreign policy stuck in the Cold War.
• Thom: Why is Mitt making out with bankers?

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Kentucy edition.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Results of a new SurveyUSA poll in Washington’s first congressional district (via KING 5) are out. The poll was taken on the 24th and 25th of July on a sample of 563 likely voters in the district (4.2% MOE). The results:

• John Koster (R), 38%
• Susan Delbene (D), 17%
• Darcy Burner (D) 13%
• Laura Ruderman (D) 6%
• Steve Hobbs (D) 5%)
• Darshan Rauniyar (D) 2%
• Larry Ishmael (I) 2%

The best news about this poll is the 43% that Democratic candidates take, edging out Koster’s support at 38% (or 40% if you include Republican-turned-independent Ishmael). In head-to-head general election contests:

If the race were between Koster and DelBene, SurveyUSA finds it’s a dead heat—42% each. It’s also effectively a dead heat if it were Koster vs. Burner.

Of course, with 17% (primary) and 16% (general) still undecided, there is a lot of room for change between the end of the primary and the general election.

Gubernatorial candidate and former Congressman Jay Inslee released a quite positive introductory ad a couple of weeks ago:

The ad does a great job introducing him and his past service. It’s one of those ads that can build name recognition. That’s all good.

Now compare it to this latest ad that takes a quite different approach:

I like this ad in that it covers some of McKenna’s weaknesses that I have been highlighting recently—namely, his paranoid, vengeful bunker mentality with the press (and here and here) as well as his contemptuous attitude toward others (and here).

At least as a public figure, McKenna is not a very nice person, and this ad begins to needle at that chink in his armor.

The ad also picks up on another theme: McKenna’s statements of being unprepared in a couple of circumstances. This is probably excellent politics, but it isn’t a serious argument against McKenna. From what I can tell, McKenna does take his work seriously and is nearly always prepared.

So, why does a normally prepared candidate have to resort to saying he is unprepared? Quite simply, it allows him to dodge a troublesome question. He doesn’t have to lay out his position on health care reform or on gun control without first carefully constructing an answer designed to minimize any damage from unpopular beliefs he holds.

But, hell, if he is going to use “unprepared” as an excuse for dodging answers, it’s fair game to turn around and hit him for admitting he is unprepared!

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

Also, if your name is Barack, and you happen to be in Seattle for the night, don’t be shy about an unscheduled visit…. I mean, dude, it wouldn’t be the first time a (former) presidential candidate dropped in on us unannounced (Gen. Welsey Clark).

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter meets tonight, the Burien chapter meets on Wednesday, and the Woodinville chapter meets on Thursday.

With 230 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and four in both Oregon and Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

Thom: Some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Sam Seder: Rush Limbaugh’s Batman The Dark Knight Rises Villain is a Liberal conspiracy!!!!!

Lawrence: Anti-tax lobbyist Grover Norquist’s worst nightmare….

Young Turks: Darcy Burner–the aggressive progressive.

Kimmel: This week in unnecessary censorship.

Sam Seder: Nutcase IA Republican appoints herself Senator of Alt. USA.

Thom: How to marry a corporation.

ONN: Week in review.

Susie Sampson does The Young Turks.

Sam Seder: Shrub on his time as President: “8 years was awesome!”.

Thom and Pap: Bain connection to death squads.

Jon on Egyptian tomato throwers.

Mitt’s World:

• Ed: Desperate Romney camp to unleash kitchen sink attacks at Obama.
• Mitt dancing around the issues, Volume I.
• Mitt dancing around the issues, Volume II.
• Ann Telnaes: Caught on kiss-off cam.
• Olbermann: Ann Romney defends decision to not release more tax returns.
• Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, the New Hampshire verse:
• Alyona: Mitt’s refusal to give tax returns.
• Young Turks: Tricky Mitt…you’re not a crook, right?
• Mark Fiore: Myttlympics.
• Maddow: Burden of tax return question exceeds Romney’s political skill.
• CNN: Romney’s charges of “cronyism” are false.
• SlateTV: Mitt fails to invite Sarah Palin!
• Even Republicans think Mitt is hiding something.
• Sam Seder: What is the secret behind Mitt’s Magical IRA?
• Obama campaign apologizes to Mitt Romney:
• Maddow: Romney campaign in distress.
• Vetting Mitt’s Veeps: Marco Rubio.
• Young Turks: Mitt Romney’s new Latino ad starring Craig Romney
• Maddow: Racism and the “Southern Strategy” is Mitt Romney’s new political tactic!
• Lawrence’s Day in News: Romney’s campaign desperation.
• Ann Telnaes: Romney will only release two years of tax returns.
• What does retroactively retired mean?
• Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Arizona edition:

Thom: Why would anyone proudly call themselves a Conservative?

Sam Seder with Matt Taibbi: You should be freaking out over LIBOR scandal!.

ONN: This week in history.

Thom: Justice Scalia tells America to, “Get over it”.

Michele Bachmann Investigates:

• SlateTV: Michele Bachmann still pushing Muslim Brotherhood conspiracy despite GOP disaproval.
• Sam Seder: Michele Bachmann suggests Huma Abedin, is a secret undercover Muslim agent!
• Jon: Michele Bachmann and Huma Abedin’s Muslim brotherhood membership.
• Young Turks: John McCain defends Huma Abedin from Senate floor.

Young Turks: Oregon man strip for TSA.

Alyona: Texas Voter ID IS like a poll tax.

Ed and Pap: Gov. Rick Scott’s criminal history will doom voter purge.

White House: West Wing Week.

FAUX Lies:

• Young Turks: FAUX News latest attack on Obama.
• Sam Seder: The FAUX News / GOP lie & the perfect truth behind Obama’s “You didn’t build that”.
• Mitt Romney will say anything to get elected.
• Newsy: Bachmann claims Muslim group is infiltrating U.S. government.
• Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Bill-O Calls Obama A “social justice anti-capitalist”.

Newsy: Nutcase Sheriff Arpaio claims Obama’s birth certificate is fake.

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Maddow: House GOP targets defenseless D.C. with anti-abortion agenda.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

This morning, The Stranger’s Dominic Holden wrote (my emphasis):

As Attorney General Rob McKenna explains this morning, “The national political debate sometimes oversimplifies and narrowly defines ‘women’s issues.'” That’s according to a press release that he didn’t send to The Stranger (but he did send to other media outlets) as part of his campaign to be Washington’s Republican governor.

So…McKenna is still singling out at least one media source and being an asshole to them.

But, since other media got the press release, The Stranger’s Cienna Madrid showed up as press. After all, it is in the public’s interest to understand the “nuance” of McKenna’s position on “women’s issues” like the Reproductive Parity Act. (Explaining his positions was the purpose of the event.) Here’s what happened:

And I’m sure I stood out in my Pretty-Woman-business-casual attire. Nevertheless, his staff greeted me with polite acceptance when I identified myself as press, so I’d bet other reporters were allowed in the Statewide Women’s Leadership Luncheon, where McKenna was enthusiastically unveiling the “key role” women would play in implementing his “New Direction for Washington State,” should he become our next governor.

But his staff became politely unhelpful as soon as I identified myself as a Stranger reporter.

“This is private event and not for press,” one staffer told me. “You’ll have to move elsewhere.”

Holy fuck! McKenna is either astonishingly petty, bizarrely paranoid, or is just fucking frightened of The Stranger!

That’s just Not Very Gubernatorial.

What would he do as Governor? How would a cowering, frightened Rob McKenna be able to hold a press conference where Cienna, or Eli, or Dominic, or (OH MY GAWD!) GOLDY was present.

He might just pee his pants. And in front of all the “good” press, too!

Mark my words. If Rob McKenna is elected Governor, he will institute a new press credentialing process that will exclude any and all access to his office by sources on his media enemies list. This is why all the media should be outraged and all over McKenna for selectively excluding the press.

For the rest of us, here is some homework: Go to twitter and make the #NotGubernatorial a local trending hash tag. Other tags you might include: #wagov #waelex @robmckenna

Update: In which they “forget” to invite The Stranger again, but Goldy goes anyway.

Two polls in one day! And another one supposedly on the way.

The second WA-1 poll today comes from PPP on behalf of Democracy For America, a group that backs Darcy Burner, but is “independent”. Take that as you wish.

The poll surveyed 521 likely primary voters (about a 4.3% MOE) on the 16th and 17th of July.

Results:

• Koster (R) 48%
• Burner (D) 17%
• DelBene (D) 13%
• Hobbs (D) 5%
• Ruderman (D) 4%
• Rauniyar (D) 1%
• Ishmael (I) 1%
• Undecided 11%

This poll is consistent with the previous poll in showing Darcy Burner with a small lead over Susan DelBene. It also shows Rudderman in 4th place among the Democrats. It is pretty clear that, of the Democrats, Hobbs, Ruderman, and Rauniyar are not much of a factor.

This poll differs from the previous one in showing a more difficult general election for Democrats, since Republican John Koster is at 48% with 11% undecided. While Republicans are more likely to be be decided in this particular race, it doesn’t take many to push Koster over 50%.

Given this poll and the previous on, I’d say the general election is a dead heat.

Update: More poll details here.

Here are some notes:

The survey found 34% Democrats, 39% Republicans and 28% Independent/Other. A weighted average of the earlier Strategies 360 poll and this poll gives:

• Democrats 38.4%
• Republicans 39.0%
• Other 22.6%

Close, huh?

Interestingly, in this poll Darcy Burner gets the lion’s share of Democratic voters at 40% compared to 23% for DelBene. But DelBene gets 14% of the Independent/Other vote compared to Burner’s 9%.

Koster has 88% of Republicans locked-up; only 5% are undecided. Some 15% of Democrats and 16% of Independent/Others are undecided.

The oddest finding is that Koster received 50% of the (~68) non-White “votes”, but only 48% of the White “vote”. Huh?!? This is likely just sampling “error.”

Strategies 360 has released a new poll for the new Washington first congressional district. The poll of 500 likely voters (4.4 MOE) was conducted from 15 to 17 July.

Here are the results (with “leaners”):

• Koster (R) 36%
• Burner (D) 12%
• DelBene (D) 11%
• Hobbs (D) 7%
• Ruderman (D) 3%
• Rauniyar (D) 1%
• Ishmael (I) 2%
• Other candidate 2%
• DK/NA/Refused 26%

A couple of points. Susan DelBene has certainly moved up since the previous poll, but Darcy Burner still maintains a small edge.

Laura Ruderman, who seems to generate as much “buzz”—even before MotherGate—as Burner and DelBene, is surprisingly weak at 3%.

John Koster has dropped 10% since the previous poll.

With the ballots in the mail this week and voting starting, it sure looks like a November contest between Koster and Burner or Koster and DelBene.

But we should have some more evidence soon…at Drinking Liberally this Tuesday, Goldy mentioned two other (non-candidate) polls that were in the field.

What does this poll say about the general election? The above table shows that Hobbs has a very slight edge over the sum of votes for Democratic voters. Furthermore, Larry Ishmael, the independent, is a past Republican challenger to Rep. Jay Inslee in the first, so we can probably “re-purpose” his 2% to the Koster column. (This isn’t quite true…the the crosstabs show Ishmael has about twice as many progressive supporters as conservative supporters!) These numbers make the new 1st CD a split district with a slight Republican lean.

On the other hand, the self-reported partisan make-up in the sample favors Democrats by 43% to 39%:

• Democrat 27%
• Leans D 16%
• Republican 26%
• Leans R 13%
• Independent 13%
• Other/DK/NA/Refused 5%

The evidence in the crosstabs looks somewhat favorable for a future Democratic Representative in the 1st CD. Of that 26% who didn’t know or didn’t answer who they support, the numbers split almost identically between conservative and progressive (about 6.6% of the total sample for each group). Moderates who didn’t offer a preference make up just under 8% of the total sample, whereas moderates who did have a preference, prefer a Democrat to a Republican 3 to 1.

So…until we have more evidence, this general election looks like a tight race with a slight edge for the Democratic candidate.