Two polls in one day! And another one supposedly on the way.
The second WA-1 poll today comes from PPP on behalf of Democracy For America, a group that backs Darcy Burner, but is “independent”. Take that as you wish.
The poll surveyed 521 likely primary voters (about a 4.3% MOE) on the 16th and 17th of July.
- Koster (R) 48%
- Burner (D) 17%
- DelBene (D) 13%
- Hobbs (D) 5%
- Ruderman (D) 4%
- Rauniyar (D) 1%
- Ishmael (I) 1%
- Undecided 11%
This poll is consistent with the previous poll in showing Darcy Burner with a small lead over Susan DelBene. It also shows Rudderman in 4th place among the Democrats. It is pretty clear that, of the Democrats, Hobbs, Ruderman, and Rauniyar are not much of a factor.
This poll differs from the previous one in showing a more difficult general election for Democrats, since Republican John Koster is at 48% with 11% undecided. While Republicans are more likely to be be decided in this particular race, it doesn’t take many to push Koster over 50%.
Given this poll and the previous on, I’d say the general election is a dead heat.
Update: More poll details here.
Here are some notes:
The survey found 34% Democrats, 39% Republicans and 28% Independent/Other. A weighted average of the earlier Strategies 360 poll and this poll gives:
- Democrats 38.4%
- Republicans 39.0%
- Other 22.6%
Interestingly, in this poll Darcy Burner gets the lion’s share of Democratic voters at 40% compared to 23% for DelBene. But DelBene gets 14% of the Independent/Other vote compared to Burner’s 9%.
Koster has 88% of Republicans locked-up; only 5% are undecided. Some 15% of Democrats and 16% of Independent/Others are undecided.
The oddest finding is that Koster received 50% of the (~68) non-White “votes”, but only 48% of the White “vote”. Huh?!? This is likely just sampling “error.”