Poll Analysis: Lots of new polls…Romney gains a little more

ObamaRomney
99.0% probability of winning 1.0% probability of winning
Mean of 321 electoral votesMean of 217 electoral votes

[Note: See update at the end of the post]

Last week’s analysis of state head-to-head polls showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney, 327 to 211 electoral votes and with a 99.6% probability of winning an election held then. With 18 new state head-to-head polls weighing in on the contest, Mitt Romney has gained a little more. Here are the polls:

startendsample%%%
stpolldatedatesizeMOEORdiff
FLSurveyUSA17-Jul20-Jul6473.947.943.4O+4.5
MIRasmussen23-Jul23-Jul5004.54842O+6
MIMitchell23-Jul23-Jul8253.44445R+1
MIPPP21-Jul23-Jul5794.15339O+14
MNSurveyUSA17-Jul20-Jul5524.345.939.7O+6.2
NVWeAskAmerica17-Jul18-Jul10923.04943O+6
NVMagellan Strategies16-Jul17-Jul6653.85046O+4
NJQuinnipiac09-Jul15-Jul16232.44938O+11
NMPPP13-Jul16-Jul7243.64944O+5
NYQuinnipiac17-Jul23-Jul17792.35532O+23
NCCivitas16-Jul18-Jul6004.04948O+1
OHRasmussen18-Jul18-Jul5004.54745O+2
PAPPP21-Jul23-Jul7583.64943O+6
PARasmussen18-Jul18-Jul5004.54844O+4
VARasmussen16-Jul17-Jul5004.54746O+1
VAQuinnipiac10-Jul16-Jul16732.44444tie
WASurveyUSA16-Jul17-Jul6304.046.037.3O+8.7
WIWeAskAmerica17-Jul18-Jul11622.94942O+7

Let’s get New Jersey and New York out of the way. They both have double digit leads for Obama.

Obama takes the latest Florida poll (+4.5%), giving him three of the five current polls, and a 62% probability of taking the state at this point.

In New Mexico Obama slips from +11 in the previous poll to a more moderate +5%. Even though a Romney victory at this point still seems unlikely, there is some hint at a softening of support for Obama:

ObamaRomney26Jun12-26Jul12New Mexico

Three polls in Michigan display remarkable heterogeneity. Obama takes one by double digits, one by single digits, and Romney takes one with a +1. The overall trend still looks more favorable for Obama:

ObamaRomney25Jun12-25Jul12Michigan

Obama gets a +6.2% in Minnesota which actually seems weak. But the graph of polls does not really indicate any radical change in support for Obama over the long run:

ObamaRomney25Jun12-25Jul12Minnesota

Nevada continues to trend Obama, with a +4% and a +6%.

North Carolina gives Obama a slim +1% lead over Romney, but Romney leads in three of the five current polls. At this point, Romney would take the state with 67% probability.

Obama gets a small +2% lead in the Ohio poll. Obama now leads in four consecutive polls for the state, dating back to early June.

Pennsylvania goes +4 and +6 for Obama in two new polls. He leads in all three current polls and would be expected to win the state with a 98.8% probability.

Two new Virginia polls suggest a very tight race. Obama leads Romney by +1% in one and the other is a tie. The five current polls give Obama a slight edge and a 58% probability in an election held now.

In Wisconsin, the latest poll goes +7% for Obama. Obama leads by about the same amount in all three current polls.

Here in Washington Obama is up by +8.7% over Romney. The longer trend strongly hints at an Obama victory here:

ObamaRomney26Jun12-26Jul12Washington

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,012 times and Romney wins 988 times (including the 179 ties). Obama receives (on average) 321 (-6) to Romney’s 217 (+6) electoral votes. Obama has a 99.0% (-0.6%) probability of winning and Romney has a 1.0% (+0.6%) probability of winning an election held now.

Electoral College Map

AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLousianaMaineMarylandMassachusettesMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Electoral College Map

GeorgiaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoDelawareConnecticutFloridaMississippiAlabamaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

  • 341 electoral votes with a 2.57% probability
  • 328 electoral votes with a 2.46% probability
  • 342 electoral votes with a 2.16% probability
  • 324 electoral votes with a 2.16% probability
  • 329 electoral votes with a 2.05% probability
  • 323 electoral votes with a 2.03% probability
  • 319 electoral votes with a 1.92% probability
  • 312 electoral votes with a 1.90% probability
  • 314 electoral votes with a 1.79% probability
  • 310 electoral votes with a 1.77% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 99.0%, Romney wins 1.0%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 321.1 (21.9)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 216.9 (21.9)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 323 (277, 360)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 215 (178, 261)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

ThresholdSafe+ Strong+ Leans+ Weak
Safe Obama108
Strong Obama134242
Leans Obama8686328
Weak Obama131313341
Weak Romney111197
Leans Romney2626196
Strong Romney141170
Safe Romney29

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

00EC#Total%%ObamaRomney
84VotespollsVotesObamaRomney% wins% wins
AL91*484 41.5 58.5 0.4 99.6
AK30*(0)(100)
AZ111475 43.2 56.8 1.9 98.1
AR61*679 36.8 63.2 0.0100.0
CA551780 59.7 40.3100.0 0.0
CO921505 51.5 48.5 79.7 20.3
CT71*1239 56.8 43.2100.0 0.0
DE30*(100)(0)
DC30*(100)(0)
FL2953363 50.3 49.7 61.7 38.3
GA161*404 43.3 56.7 2.6 97.4
HI41*517 64.8 35.2100.0 0.0
ID40*(0)(100)
IL201*546 61.5 38.5100.0 0.0
IN111*447 45.0 55.0 6.4 93.6
IA611029 52.8 47.2 89.7 10.3
KS61*442 45.0 55.0 6.6 93.4
KY81*528 45.5 54.5 6.6 93.4
LA81*542 41.1 58.9 0.1 99.9
ME21*516 58.3 41.7 99.6 0.4
ME111*488 64.8 35.2100.0 0.0
ME211*421 53.7 46.3 86.4 13.6
MD101*792 62.4 37.6100.0 0.0
MA111*848 58.5 41.5100.0 0.0
MI1631717 53.0 47.0 95.9 4.1
MN101472 53.6 46.4 86.6 13.4
MS61*717 40.0 60.0 0.0100.0
MO101*455 46.2 53.8 11.3 88.7
MT31*372 45.2 54.8 9.4 90.6
NE21*553 43.4 56.6 1.4 98.6
NE111*389 45.5 54.5 11.3 88.7
NE211*252 49.6 50.4 47.2 52.8
NE311*284 35.9 64.1 0.0100.0
NV621643 52.8 47.2 94.5 5.5
NH41442 52.0 48.0 72.2 27.8
NJ1411412 56.3 43.7100.0 0.0
NM521852 54.8 45.2 99.8 0.2
NY2922267 63.5 36.5100.0 0.0
NC1552772 49.4 50.6 32.7 67.3
ND31348 41.4 58.6 1.1 98.9
OH1821018 51.4 48.6 72.6 27.4
OK71*448 30.4 69.6 0.0100.0
OR71*631 54.4 45.6 93.8 6.2
PA2032225 53.4 46.6 98.8 1.2
RI41*495 59.4 40.6 99.8 0.2
SC91*1833 51.7 48.3 85.2 14.8
SD31*442 44.3 55.7 4.6 95.4
TN111*654 46.0 54.0 8.1 91.9
TX381*460 38.9 61.1 0.0100.0
UT61*1149 27.7 72.3 0.0100.0
VT31*528 67.8 32.2100.0 0.0
VA1354083 50.2 49.8 57.5 42.5
WA121525 55.2 44.8 95.5 4.5
WV51*373 40.8 59.2 0.8 99.2
WI1032811 53.6 46.4 99.7 0.3
WY30(0)(100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

Update: Sam Minter points out that I reversed the numbers for Obama and Romney on the Civitas NC poll. It should be Romney +1. So Romney takes four of the five current NC polls and probably has something closer to 70% or 80% probability of winning the state at this point.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Comments

  1. 1

    Liberal Scientist is a a dirty fucking hippie spews:

    The Confederacy, (some of) the farmers and the Mormons – that’s what that EV map looks like to me.

    It is not a winning constituency.

  2. 2

    Liberal Scientist is a a dirty fucking hippie spews:

    Much to Cereal’s chagrin, it doesn’t look like anger at ‘union thugs’ is delivering Wisconsin to the Rmoney camp, either.

  3. 3

    Liberal Scientist is a a dirty fucking hippie spews:

    Perhaps if Cereal could articulate an affirmative argument for a Romney presidency, just a few somewhat fleshed-out policy highlights, something fairly simple, we could all get our heads around what he and our other right-wing friends find so compelling about Willard…

    Perhaps the national Willard campaign could pick up his argument, because I haven’t seen them able to assert any detailed positions either – perhaps Cereal could help them with that.

  4. 4

    Michael spews:

    While the softening of support for Obama in places like NM and CO isn’t good, given all the negative advertising it’s also not very surprising.

  5. 5

    rhp6033 spews:

    # 3: Mitt’s “foreign policy” address went on for the better part of a half-hour without giving any specifics about what his foreign policy would be. You could say the same thing about his budget policy. Romney’s hoping to slip through the election without getting pinned down to any single position.

  6. 6

    spews:

    @3:

    Perhaps if Cereal could articulate an affirmative argument for a Romney presidency, just a few somewhat fleshed-out policy highlights, something fairly simple, we could all get our heads around what he and our other right-wing friends find so compelling about Willard…

    @5:

    Romney’s hoping to slip through the election without getting pinned down to any single position.

    Guys, you miss the point. Romney does have a very specific, very consistent, very compelling (to some) argument for his Presidential candidacy:

    I’m not Obama.

    That’s a much-more-than-sufficient reason (for some). Especially when you understand that it’s code for an unspoken, but crystal-clear, message. It’s the only point on which Romney’s position has not changed.

    No, it’s not a reason to back Romney any more that the other occupants of the GOP clown-car. What brought him to the top of the heap was money and his relative non-craziness. (No personality is better than the whack-job alternatives).

  7. 7

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Hippie spews:

    Tweets from right-wing Brit newspaper columnist James Chapman about Romney visit with Brit government:

    Serious dismay in Whitehall at Romney debut. ‘Worse than Sarah Palin.’ ‘Total car crash’. Two of the kinder verdicts #romneyshambles

    Another verdict from one Romney meeting: ‘Apparently devoid of charm, warmth, humour or sincerity’ #romneyshambles #mitthitsthefan

    NAILED!

    What a complete loser, shell of a human being. Mitt is an object lesson in the failings of our meritocratic system to reward actual merit.

  8. 8

    Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Hippie spews:

    Especially when you understand that it’s code for an unspoken, but crystal-clear, message.

    Watch out, N, or Cereal is going to accuse you of yelling, “Racism!!” without provocation, and implying that you have no other argument. He’d be wrong, of course, as is almost always is, but he’ll whine nonetheless.