I talk to nurses and programmers, salespeople and firefighters—people who bust their tails every day. Not one of them—not one—stashes their money in the Cayman Islands to avoid paying their fair share of taxes.
(Full text.)
by Darryl — ,
by Darryl — ,
In Tampa, the Republican argument against the president’s re-election was actually pretty simple—pretty snappy. It went something like this: We left him a total mess. He hasn’t cleaned it up fast enough. So fire him and put us back in.
Now, there were two other attacks on the president in Tampa I think deserve an answer. First, both Governor Romney and Congressman Ryan attacked the president for allegedly robbing Medicare of $716 billion. That’s the same attack they leveled against the Congress in 2010, and they got a lot of votes on it. But it’s not true.
Here’s what really happened. There were no cuts to benefits at all. None. What the president did was to save money by taking the recommendations of a commission of professionals to cut unwarranted subsidies to providers and insurance companies that were not making people healthier and were not necessary to get the providers to provide the service.
And instead of raiding Medicare, he used the savings to close the doughnut hole in the Medicare drug program and—you all got to listen carefully to this; this is really important—and to add eight years to the life of the Medicare trust fund so it is solvent till 2024.
So President Obama and the Democrats didn’t weaken Medicare; they strengthened Medicare. Now, when Congressman Ryan looked into that TV camera and attacked President Obama’s Medicare savings as, quote, the biggest, coldest power play, I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry because that $716 billion is exactly, to the dollar, the same amount of Medicare savings that he has in his own budget. You got to get one thing—it takes some brass to attack a guy for doing what you did.
(Full text).
by Darryl — ,
by Darryl — ,
by Darryl — ,
Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. Believe it our not, this will be the first week of the 2012 presidential General Election. That’s worth discussing. Oh…and the Democratic Convention is now underway.
We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.
Can’t make it to Seattle’s DL tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight the Tri-Cities chapter meets. And the Spokane chapter and Drinking Liberally Tacoma meet this Thursday.
With 236 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.
by Darryl — ,
Obama | Romney |
97.2% probability of winning | 2.8% probability of winning |
Mean of 305 electoral votes | Mean of 233 electoral votes |
The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 302 to 236 electoral votes. If the election was held then, Obama would be expected to win with a 96.9% probability, and Romney with a 3.1% probability.
Only seven new polls covering five states have been released since then. But, on the heels of the Republican convention and the start of the Democratic convention, this seems like a good place to take stock of the race. First, the new polls:
start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
FL | PPP | 31-Aug | 02-Sep | 1548 | 2.5 | 48 | 47 | O+1 |
MI | EPIC/MRA | 28-Aug | 28-Aug | 1200 | 2.6 | 49 | 46 | O+3 |
MO | PPP | 28-Aug | 29-Aug | 621 | 3.9 | 41 | 53 | R+12 |
NC | PPP | 31-Aug | 02-Sep | 1012 | 3.1 | 48 | 48 | tie |
NC | SurveyUSA | 26-Aug | 30-Aug | 543 | 4.3 | 43 | 46 | R+3 |
NC | Elon U | 25-Aug | 30-Aug | 1089 | 3.0 | 43 | 47 | R+4 |
WV | R.L. Repass | 22-Aug | 25-Aug | 401 | 4.9 | 38 | 52 | R+14 |
Close as ever, the new Florida poll has Obama leading Romney by +1%. This poll has been taken as evidence for a lack of a strong convention (or Ryan) bump. But, who knows in Florida, the next poll may go strongly for Romney.
Michigan puts Obama over Romney by a rather weak +3%. The longer term trend suggests a much tighter race than earlier in the year. But Obama still seems to have the advantage:
A surprise poll comes out of Missouri, where Romney leads Obama by +12%. This double digit lead is a wider gap than we have seen recently. But the real surprise is the increasing variability seen among pollsters. Just two polls ago, Rasmussen found Obama leading Romney by +1%:
Three North Carolina polls mostly favor Romney. The two tie in the most recent poll. The two other polls give Romney a +3% and +4% advantage. With six “current” polls in the state, the weight of evidence is that Romney would win the state (now) with a 69% probability:
In West Virginia, Romney leads Obama by a +14%. Believe it or not, this race has tightened up since the last couple of polls.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 97,197 times and Romney wins 2,803 times (including the 330 ties). Obama receives (on average) 305 (+3) to Romney’s 233 (-3) electoral votes. Obama has a 97.2% (+0.3%) probability of winning and Romney has a 2.8% (-0.3%) probability of winning an election held now. The difference from the previous analysis is really too small to “make” anything over.
Now, let’s consider the longer term trends in this race. I’ve done as series of Monte Carlo analyses, conducted every seven days using all the polls from the last year. For each simulation, I follow the same rules of including only polls from the past month (and the most recent poll before then if there are none) (FAQ). The following graph shows how the election is “scored” over time. The middle (magenta) line is the median number of electoral votes for Obama. When that line dips below the dashed line, Romney wins. Above it, Obama wins.
The pair of tan lines show the interval of electoral college totals within which 75% of the results for Obama were found. And the outer green lines show the interval of electoral college totals within which 95% of the results for Obama were found.
Romney was at his best in the 4th quarter of 2011. Even then, his probability of winning the election was never greater than about 30%. Beginning in late January, Romney slipped into zero percent territory, and has been there until recently. He has now recovered to same place he was in late January.
The general election has just started, so we are at a point with much potential for big change in the standings. In 2008, we saw McCain begin to do, only to have Obama run away with it in the end.
by Darryl — ,
Why Unions matter more than ever.
Roy ZImmerman: The Problem With Democrats:
Bill Maher’s New Rule: GOP must admit George W. Bush exists .
The making of Labor Day.
The redevelopment of Yesler Terrace.
Chair Talk:
Bashir: Is Paul Ryan the fastest ‘Kenyan’ candidate ever???
by Darryl — ,
Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Aloha, Hawaii!:
The debate between Inslee and McKenna.
Who is Paul Ryan?
Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, South Carolina edition:
Pap: GOP bound to fail.
Thom and Pap: Obama endorses Constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United.
Liberal Viewer: The most negative campaign ever?
Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
White House: West Wing Week.
The G.O.P. Multimedia Extravaganza!
Clint on Obama:
Roy Zimmerman: Mitt’s America the Beatiful:
Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Maddow: Court strikes down Ohio early voter restrictions.
The Democratic plan for gun control.
Veterans who support Obama.
Liberal Viewer: Colbert in the tank for Obama?
Ann Telnaes: Republican VP candidates, past and present.
Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, The Idaho verse.
Romney’s plan to “strengthen” the middle class.
Young Turks: The Michelle Obama slave mag cover.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Darryl — ,
Obama | Romney |
96.9% probability of winning | 3.1% probability of winning |
Mean of 302 electoral votes | Mean of 236 electoral votes |
The previous analysis showed G.O.P. presidential candidate Mitt Romney edging up to almost a 1% probability of winning an election held now. Romney lagged in expected electoral votes to President Barack Obama by 230 to 308.
Since then, 15 new polls covering 12 states have been released.
start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
CO | Keating | 21-Aug | 22-Aug | 500 | 4.4 | 48 | 44 | O+4 |
CT | Quinnipiac | 22-Aug | 26-Aug | 1472 | 2.6 | 52 | 45 | O+7 |
CT | PPP | 22-Aug | 23-Aug | 881 | — | 53 | 40 | O+13 |
FL | CNN/TIME | 22-Aug | 26-Aug | 895 | 3.5 | 50 | 46 | O+4 |
IA | PPP | 23-Aug | 26-Aug | 1244 | 2.8 | 47 | 45 | O+2 |
MI | Mitchell | 23-Aug | 23-Aug | 1277 | 2.7 | 46.6 | 46.7 | R+0.1 |
MO | Mason-Dixon | 22-Aug | 23-Aug | 625 | 4.0 | 43 | 50 | R+7 |
MO | Rasmussen | 22-Aug | 22-Aug | 500 | 4.5 | 47 | 46 | O+1 |
NV | PPP | 23-Aug | 26-Aug | 831 | 3.4 | 50 | 47 | O+3 |
NJ | Eagleton-Rutgers | 23-Aug | 25-Aug | 710 | 3.5 | 51 | 37 | O+14 |
NC | CNN/Time | 22-Aug | 26-Aug | 766 | 3.5 | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
NC | SurveyUSA | 18-Aug | 23-Aug | 540 | 4.3 | 43 | 43 | tie |
OH | Columbus Dispatch | 15-Aug | 25-Aug | 1758 | 2.1 | 45 | 45 | tie |
PA | Philadelphia Inquirer | 21-Aug | 23-Aug | 601 | 4.0 | 51 | 42 | O+9 |
VA | Rasmussen | 23-Aug | 23-Aug | 500 | 4.5 | 47 | 47 | tie |
Obama takes the latest Colorado poll by +4% over Romney, and he leads in four of the five current polls for the state.
Two polls in Connecticut both go to Obama. The Quinnipiac poll has Obama up by a modest +7%. A slightly older PPP poll has Obama up by +13%.
The latest Florida poll has Obama leading Romney by +4%. The current Florida polls go 4 to 2 for Romney, and Romney is given a 97% chance of winning the state right now.
Obama is up by +2% in the new Iowa poll. The candidates split the two current polls, but the poll that has Obama up is the much larger of the two:
In Michigan, Romney leads Obama by a weak +0.1%. The candidates split the four current polls, but the weight of the evidence has Obama up slightly with a 57% probability of winning an election held now.
The candidates split the two Missouri polls, with Romney up by +7% in one and Obama up by +1% in another. Obama has only led in this one poll out of the 6 current Missouri polls:
Nevada has Obama up by a slender +3% over Romney, slightly beating the +2% he had in the other current poll:
Little surprise that New Jersey has Obama up by a double-digit lead (+14%) over Romney.
In North Carolina, Romney has a +1% lead over Obama in one poll and the candidates are tied in another. The weight of evidence in the five current polls has Romney up by the slightest margin and a 56% probability of taking the state in an election held now:
Ohio is a tie at 45% each in the new poll. But Obama has led in three of the current six polls (with two ties), so the weight of evidence gives him an 87% probability of taking the state right now:
Another Pennsylvania poll gives Obama a +9% lead over Romney. Obama take all three of the current polls and would be expected to win an election now with a 99% probability.
Virginia is all tied up at 47% in the newest poll. Overall, Obama takes 4 of the six current polls, so he ends up with a 90% probability of winning an election held now.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 96,863 times and Romney wins 3,137 times (including the 449 ties). Obama receives (on average) 302 (-6) to Romney’s 236 (+6) electoral votes. In an election held now, we would expect Obama to win with a 96.9% (-2.3%) probability and Romney with a 3.1% (+2.3%) probability.
by Darryl — ,
Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. Material for tonight’s discussions: The hurricane that is the G.O.P. convention, Rob McKenna’s refusal to release his tax returns, and, perhaps, today’s Arizona, Vermont, Alaska and Oklahoma elections ….
We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.
Can’t make it to Seattle’s DL tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter also meets tonight. And on Monday, the Yakima, South Bellevue and Olympia chapters meet.
With 235 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.
by Darryl — ,
Rob McKenna is refusing to release his tax returns:
Washington gubernatorial candidate Rob McKenna said Tuesday he will not release any of his tax returns, dismissing the matter as a distraction from important policy discussions.
McKenna, the state’s attorney general, said he has disclosed enough information in the personal financial forms that candidates file with the state. He called the tax-return debate – both here and nationally – a “phony issue.”
McKenna, a Republican, said his political rivals are attempting “to change the subject away from the real issues of the state.”
Democratic rival Jay Inslee, a former congressman, released five years of tax returns last week, and his campaign had called on McKenna to do the same.
I’m sure McKenna wants you to believe that he is taking a principled stand in refusing to release his tax returns, but his recalcitrance is problematic for the gubernatorial wannabe.
First, even if the “principled stand” hypothesis is true, standing tall with Mitt Romney isn’t going to endear him to Washingtonians. The state is just not that into Mittens. In other words, if McKenna wants to peddle himself as a “different kind of Republican,” one that is palatable to the voters of our state, he shouldn’t emulate, pretend to be, or come off as, in any way, an entitled one-percenter.
Romney has good reason to hide his tax returns. He’s done the political calculation. Releasing his tax returns would be much more damaging than disclosure. And it really is understandable—the fabulously wealthy have more opportunity to dodge taxes in ways that, if disclosed to the rest of us, would induce a bout of severe vertigo followed by repulsion-induced wrenching.
But McKenna…not so many tax dodging options. So if McKenna is “standing on principle,” he takes all the damage of non-discosure without any of the benefits.
(And he will take damage from this. Washingtonians are big on transparency. Don’t think for a moment that McKenna’s non-disclosure is going to be swept under the rug.)
So, really, if McKenna is merely standing on “principle”, he’s foolishly hurting himself.
On the other hand, maybe Rob isn’t a fool. Maybe he has done the calculation of relative political damage from disclosure versus non-disclosure. And he came down on the side of hiding his tax returns. If so, what is Rob McKenna hiding?
Is McKenna being foolish here? Or does he really have something to hide in his tax returns?
Intelligent voters want to know.
by Darryl — ,
by Darryl — ,
by Darryl — ,
Sam Seder and Ari Berman: Fighting back against Republican led voter suppression efforts.
Willard!
Kimmel: This week in unnecessary censorship.
Obama: They drove the economy into a ditch.
Thom with even more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
White House: West Wing Week.
The G.O.P. Convention:
Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Tennessee version.
Thom with The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Completely honest political debate.
Ed: Republicans are stealing the election in Ohio.
Young Turks: We have found the terrorists and it is us.
The Republican War on Lady Parts:
Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Massachusetts edition
Gov. Jan Brewer introduces the Self Deportation Station:
Thom with more The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Nevada edition.
Obama’s Secret UN Takeover and the Texas Insurgency!
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Darryl — ,
On Tuesday I mentioned that progressive comedian Dean Obeidallah is coming to Seattle. Dean is not only a comedian, but he is a frequent commentator on those talking head shows.
Well, today he has a CNN Opinion piece that looks at political gaffes, rape and other fun topics:
Politicians make gaffes almost daily. Some they can overcome. Some are fodder for late-night comedians. Some are deadly to their campaigns. Republican congressman Todd Akin’s recent gaffe was so toxic, he may not only have killed his campaign, he may be the political equivalent of a zombie who also infects the Romney/Ryan ticket with his deadly virus.
Read the whole thing here.