Our next debate in tonight’s double header is AG Rob McKenna (R) versus former WA-01 Congressman Jay Inslee. I think it is supposed to be carried by KUOW, but fucking Wiretapped is on.

So, I’ll look for the debate on my portable AM/FM/Shortwave radio, and you folks can talk about the debate. In case none of us get the debate….this is just an open thread.

8:02: There is a new poll in the gubernatorial contest. Inslee leads Romney McKenna. I’ll post an analysis right after the debate.

8:06: Okay…Goldy just walked in the door and tells me I can stream the debate on KING 5. Awaiting audio…

8:09: Got the video on big screen Tee Vee and the audio streaming. Has anyone ever noticed that Rob McKenna looks like a transgendered individual?

8:11: Carl Ballard was wondering what kind of pin Inslee is wearing. A hammer and sickle pin, obviously.

8:13: [Carl] For Halloween, McKenna is going to be a skeleton with a toupee.

8:14: McKenna has some round pin with shit on the inside. If I’m not mistaken, that is the official pin of the ALEC bootcamp. Am I right?

8:18: McKenna would sink the head of the ferry system! Yikes!

8:19: Rob McKenna looks like he wants to puke. Get that man a bucket!

8:21: Rob McKenna goes to REI and that somehow is related to closing tax loopholes.

8:22: Can we get to the physical confrontation part of this debate, please?

8:27: We have enter the uberwonkery part of the debate. Jay Inslee wins just because he doesn’t whine like McKenna.

8:29: The departs from the format and they ask each other questions. Oh, please. This is bullshit.

8:30: Rob McKenna gets testy…which is as close to masculine as he gets all night…just because of the word.

8:34: McKenna is totally pro-women. But Inslee points out that there are three things missing from his answer. For example, McKenna is opposed to the reproductive parity act.

8:36: A question comes, via video tape, from a sister station in Spokane. If Washington wasn’t such a backward state, that would have been a hologram!

8:41: McKenna repeats his TOTALLY retarded pseudoissue about why we shouldn’t give drivers licenses to non-citizens. Ugggh!

8:44: “Lean management” comes up again. I think Rob wins, hands down. After all, he is much leaner than Inslee. But is pronounced moobs suggests he has a recreational drug habbit. Just sayin’.

8:47: On the other hand…Inslee would pummel McKenna, if only the physical confrontation phase of this debate would start.

8:48: Mr. Brunner looks like he could use some lean management….

8:51: McKenna “only” has “technical questions” about light rail across a floating bridge. Of course, he was previously recorded, before a group of right wing reactionaries, promising to stop the project. What an asshole!

8:55: I don’t know how much longer I can listen to this. Aaaarrrrrggggghhh! Whew…closing statements!

8:57: McKenna asks if you will better off putting the same people back in office. FUCK YES. Putting an asshole phoney like Rob McKenna in office will be an utter disaster for Washington state. No question about it!

It seems universally accepted that Mitt Romney scored a knock-out during the last presidential debate. And Mr. and Mrs. J. Q. Public seemed totally indifferent to the fact that Romney spent the debate telling blatant lies and “refudiating” the positions he had held—sometimes just weeks before—as Conservative Mitt.

Go figure!

But I guess this means anything goes!

Tonight, with a town-hall format, and with some remedial debate training, Obama is out for revenge. The fun begins at 6:00.

I’m liveblogging the mayhem from the Montlake Ale House. I suspect Carl and N in Seattle will be there, as well. If you can, please join us—in the comment thread or at the Ale House.

There will be blood!

6:00: I’m getting the audio from KUOW, but CNN is on the Tee Vee.

6:02: Romney goes all socialist on student loans.

6:06: OMG Obama is pointing down! Noooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!

6:07: Obama gives “Number one”, “Number two” and “Number three” in his first answer. What a snob!

6:09: Mitt Romney has a five point plan! Doh! (Although…he may have lost some of his base going that high.)

6:09: Mitt indirectly takes credit for saving Detroit. Ignores that there was no private sector money available.

6:11: Obama is more aggressive this time. I’m sure FAUX News will say he seemed like an “angry militant” or something.

6:12: Mitt’s attempts to dominate the moderator don’t go over so well with Ms. Crowley….

6:14: Mitt is TOTALLY bullish on renewables! Uh-huh. A few minutes later: “More drilling. More pipelines.”

6:17: Obama mentions that, Mr. “Clean Coal” Romney, while governor, stood in front of a coal plant and said, “This Plant Kills.”

6:19: I think Obama wins the “production on government lands” debate. Romney was simply unaware of the “stagnant lease” issue.

6:23: Mitt goes into la-la land on his tax plan. He completely ignores the fact that THE FUCKING MATH DOESN’T FUCKING WORK. You cannot cut taxes on the wealthy as he proposes and make it up by eliminating deductions for ONLY the wealthy.

6:29: Obama: During the primary, he said “I’m going to give tax cuts to everyone, including the 1%.” He said just the opposite tonight. Mitt is the world’s fastest flip-flopper.

6:32: Obama lays out, in some detail, Romney’s 8 trillion dollars of tax cuts, but offers no details on paying for it, and then points out how Romney himself, as an investor, would never accept such a sketchy deal. Point: Obama.

6:35: “Of course my numbers add up.” Ummm…no they FUCKING DON’T.

6:35: [N in Seattle]: Gov. Romney, if it all adds up, PLEASE SHOW YOUR WORK!

6:36: Romney’s bullying isn’t working so well this time.

6:40: Romney keeps mentioning how there are more women in poverty now than when Obama took office. This completely ignores that that was Shrub’s doing. Unemployment was tanking when Obama came into office, and Obama turned it around. But like any ship, it took time. (See “Bikini Graph”)

6:45: Questioner asks Mitt about the difference between him and George Bush. Mitt is different from Shrub because he will adopt Jimmy Carter’s energy independence polity. Huh.

6:47: Mitt points out the differences…Obama points out the similarities between Mitt and Shrub. Well…some of them. He could-a gone further.

6:52: Mitt’s flaggy-flag pin is bigger than Obama’s. He wins.

6:54: Mitt: “We can’t afford four more years like the last four years.” Not really. What we CERTAINLY cannot afford is four more years like either of the Shrub four years. Those years were catastrophes that left the economy in shambles.

6:56: Mitt points out that the economy is growing more slowly this year than last. Ummm…the economy is GROWING. Under the last Republican President, the economy collapsed. That means NEGATIVE GROWTH. Any questions?

7:00: MITT Flip-Flops to become a Dream Act supporter. Holy shit…didn’t Mitt give Rick Perry SHIT in the primary for being weak on immigration for the same reason. What a fucking disingenuous asshole!

7:04: Mitt, transmorgrifies into Newt Gingrich: “I don’t want to round up 12 million people….”

7:08: Terry asks about security at an embassy in Benghazi. Obama doesn’t point out that there is no embassy in that city. (It is a Consulate.)

7:14: Obama rightly points out that the VERY DAY after the attack, he called it a terrorist attack. Mitt challenges that, and gets absolutely spanked by the moderator AND the crowd. (Bad, crowd…bad, bad, crowd.)

7:17: Questioner asks how Obama is keeping AK47s out of the hands of criminals. Obama starts out by profession loyalty to the 2nd amendment. And then says stuff…hard to follow.

7:19: There is a HUGE crowd here at the Ale House. I’m guessing 30 people here for the debate, on top of other customers.

7:23: Mitt gets cut short for not actually addressing the question about AK47s. Starts talking about hunters. FAYLE!

7:24: Obama points out that Mitt has flipped flopped on the assault weapons ban. Ouch!

7:26: Carol asks how to bring jobs home. Mitt welcomes the question…pretending that he isn’t the king of innovation in outsourcing!!!

7:28: Mitt seems to believe that business chose a “country” to be in based on tax rates. If so, you’d think that Somalia would be the business haven of the world.

7:32: Mitt, “China has been cheating.” Huh…you never did anything to encourage that behavior, did you, Willard?

7:34: Mitt’s answer on misperceptions about his disdain of the common man would be MUCH more convincing if he hadn’t been video taped telling wealthy donors that he doesn’t give a shit about 47% of Americans. Just sayin’

7:39: ITS OVER. The bloodied and battered robot Romney grabs his cheat sheet and limps off the stage….

Tonight will be another Debate Edition of Seattle’s Drinking Liberally. Please join us for an evening of political debate and conversation over a pint.

There are two debates tonight. At 6:00 pm, President Barack Obama (D) squares off against Gov. Mitt Romney (R) in a townhall format. That will be followed at 8:00 pm by a gubernatorial debate between former WA-1 Congressman Jay Inslee (D) and Washington AG Rob McKenna (R).

Note: We will have sound and audio for the presidential debate. But for the gubernatorial debate, we may have the picture, but probably no sound. Also…the bar has other customers, so the sound may not be as loud as you want, especially with the background of a busy bar and peripheral conversations. If you are serious about listening to the debate, I recommend you bring an FM radio and headsets or earbuds. Additionally, the Montlake Alehouse has free WiFi. Ask your server for the password.

We will meet at our usual place, the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E.

The Montlake Ale House opens at 5:00 pm, and the presidential debate begins at 6:00 pm. Drinking liberally normally begins at 8:00 pm, but don’t hesitate to stop by earlier for the presidential debate.

There’s be some live blogging action right here.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight the Tri-Cities chapter meets. The Longview and South Seattle chapters meet on Wednesday. The Spokane chapter and Drinking Liberally Tacoma meet this Thursday.

With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including fourteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.

My goal for the polling analyses is to include all polls that legitimately provide insight into the race. For this reason, I want to comment on some polls that I have excluded from analysis.

As you know, I have predefined criteria on what polls can be included in my analyses. For example I exclude all on-line polls…period. And I exclude partisan polls that are selectively released. Typically this happens when a campaign releases a poll it commissioned. Even though the poll may be above reproach, including selectively released polls introduces bias to the meta-analysis of polls.

To see why, imagine a neck-in-neck race between Republican Bob and Democrat Steve. Both campaigns do polling and, quite sensibly, release those that favor their candidate. Furthermore, suppose Crossroads GPS is very interested in Bob race, so they do a bunch of polling. Steve’s campaign does a dozen polls across the campaign, and they release the six polls that show Steve with a slight lead. Bob’s campaign is a little more poll-obsessed, and they do two-dozen polls and release the 12 polls that favor their candidate. On top of that, Crossroads GPS does and additional dozen polls and releases six that show Bob in the lead.

We can assume that individual polls are above reproach. Even so, the selective release means that at a typical point in the campaign, there will be about three polls showing Bob in the lead for every poll that shows Steve in the lead. The meta-analysis will show Bob leading in a race that is, in fact, a tie.

I bring this up because I’ve had to exclude a couple of polls from my analyses.

Yesterday, Wenzel Strategies released a poll for Missouri that showed Romney leading Obama, 54.9 to 41.1. The poll appears to be legitimate and I have no reason to believe the poll is biased or improperly done. In fact, Wenzel does something I really appreciate: they publish the counts of responses in addition to the percentages. I use the counts directly whenever possible, but aside from Survey USA, most pollsters just provide rounded percentages.

The Wenzel poll was conducted on behalf of Citizens United that:

…exists to support true conservative candidates running for federal office through direct candidate advocacy and contributions, based on our in-depth candidate research and surveys.

So, it is obviously a right-leaning organization. But that is not enough to exclude an organization’s polls. For example, the Civitas Institute is a right leaning think tank in North Carolina. I include their polls, because they pre-announce the polls, and release the results regardless of the outcome.

I though the Wenzel polls were okay, because they were released on the firm’s web site. But, I wanted to be sure. I made a call to Fritz Wenzel to ask him about it. What I learned was the following:

1. The decision to publicly release the poll was made by his client, not him.
2. He only published the results on his web site after the results had been released by his client.
3. When I asked if he had done other polls for this client that had not been released, he deferred the question to his client.

From our discussion, I got the impression is that Mr. Wenzel is a serious pollster who takes pride in producing high quality polls for his clients. Even so, I’ll exclude this poll, since it appears to be a selective release by a highly partisan group.

Another poll I am excluding was brought to my attention by Sam Minter, for American Crossroads:

According to a new poll shared exclusively with POLITICO, Mitt Romney is leading President Obama in a congressional district in Maine — raising the possibility of the GOP nominee winning an electoral vote in a deep blue state.

The live-call poll, conducted by Glen Bolger of NMB Research and provided to POLITICO by American Crossroads communications director Jonathan Collegio, shows Obama winning statewide 48 percent to 44 percent.

That result already puts Romney in a surprisingly competitive position in a nominally blue state.

But in Maine’s second congressional district, Romney actually tops Obama 49 percent to 44 percent.

The ME-2 result is surprising but not a valid reason for exclusion. It is the selective nature of the poll’s release that results in exclusion. American Crossroads is engaging in good PR by releasing this information, but it isn’t likely to be representative of the polling overall. Granted, I did not call up the pollster, but the case for selective release seem pretty clear.

I point out these exclusions because I want to be as transparent about some decisions that may not, a first glance, be obvious.

Additionally, I’ll use this opportunity to ask for your help. If you see a poll I am including but shouldn’t, or a poll I’ve left out but should include, let me know. The best way is to make your case for inclusion or exclusion in a poll analysis comment thread.

Stephen Colbert: Obama’s secret martian gayness.

Mark Fiore: It’s the Foreign Policy, Stupid!.

Young Turks: “Some girls rape easy,” says idiot politician.

Colbert: The 7-11/Pizza Hut election (via TalkingPointsMemo).

Bad Lip Reading: The first debate.

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Sam Seder: GOP Rep. who cut embassy security funds blames Obama for embassy attack.

Young Turks: Pro-life Rep. demands abortion for his mistress.

Willard (and Eddie)!

• Big Dog: Welcome back, Moderate Mitt!
• Martin Bashir: Mitt Romney’s multiple-choice abortion gymnastics
• Young Turks: Romney’s many views on abortion.
• Ann Telnaes: Mitt repeats his “trickle-down government” line.
• Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican—Missouri edition:
• Mitt: debates himself:
• Selma Blair: The woman for Mitt Romney.
• Sarah Silverman and friends: The truth matters
• Young Turks: Romney on healthcare, “Uninsured don’t just die…It’s paid for”.
• Martin Bashir: Ryan’s narcissism on display.
• Slate: Mitt’s twisted words on abortion.
• Ann Telnaes: Mitt flip-flops his way up the polls.
• Sharpton: Mitt introduces “statesman” nut job Glenn Beck in 2009.
• Sam Seder: Ryan gets testy in interview
• Slate: Ryan walks out on interview in Michigan
• The Romney—Ryan strategy
• Bad Lip Reading of Ryan’s video diaries:

Jon: “Fucking crazy” GOP candidates .

Richard Alley on Abraham Lincoln and the Founding of the National Academy of Sciences.

Barely Political: Redneck political coverage.

Jim Lehrer: Badass moderator.

Ann Telnaes: Child Marriage.

Rob McKenna puts his dancing shoes on.

Grandpa versus Eddie Munster:

• Young Turks: Media opinion on who won.
• Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: The VP debate.
• Jenn: Paul Ryan challenges the truth to a debate and loses
• Maddow: On the debate and Ryan’s “principles”
• Maddow: More on Paul Ryan’s “principles”
• Cenk and Jenn: VP Debate from mirth to malarkey; laughing Joe.
• Sam Seder: Biden destroys Ryan.
• Cenk moderates another kind of debate.
• Jen: Judging the VP debate
• What Biden was thinking.
• Somebody laughs too freakin’ much!
• Biden’s debate.
• Jenn: Exposing Ryan’s “six studies” lie.
• Rachael Maddow and Ezra Klein: Factchecking the debate.
• Young Turks: FAUX News’ “trail of tears”
• Autotune the debate.
• The presidential staff debates

Kid President’s guide to being a party.

White House: West Wing Week.

Slate: Rape victims have a message for Todd Akin.

Liberal Viewer: When is Stephen Colbert joking?

Lisa Brown and Maria Cantwell channel SNL for Marcus Riccelli:

Thom with the Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Jon: Poll are so worthless but so quotable (via TalkingPointsMemo).

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Former congressman Jay Inslee is going to debate Washington AG Rob McKenna in a couple of minutes. The Ale House will give me picture, but no audio. And I haven’t found the audio feed on my radio yet, but here is a thread for you to offer your own thoughts.

Have at it!

9:01: It sounds like KUOW really does have it on tonight. Bonus. In fact, I cannot see what is going on, but I can hear it, thanks to the miracle of the transistor (radio)!

9:03: McKenna refers to this debate as an “unprecedented event.” I don’t think it is quite that unique!

9:05: First question…what will you cut if we have a new recession? Ummm…isn’t the economy getting noticeably better?

9:07: So far, both candidates have been regurgitated talking points. Comeon guys…mix it up a bit. I already heard this debate.

9:10: How will each candidate meet the $4 billion court ordered funding level:

McKenna: Well…we can do it a bit at a time by some magic voodoo method.

Inslee: We can do it…by increasing percentage of budget going to education.

9:15: Inslee goes on the attack calling McKenna’s proposal a “gimmick.” Topic changes. The judges hold up a “Jay +1” sign.

9:17: Rob McKenna wants a level playing field for all businesses. That sure sounds like SOCIALISM to me.

9:19: Jay points out that Washington state gets ranked as one of the best places to have a business. Yes.

9:20: Early learning. McKenna wants to extend it to nursing visits for pregnant moms. Okay…I guess we can call that “early learning”. McKenna points out that many kindergartners are not prepared for kindergarten. WTF?????

9:23: Inslee has been advocating for early learning since 1980 (when McKenna was an adolescent). Good point!

9:24: Come to think of it, McKenna may STILL be an adolescent.

9:25: Inslee went to church in Seattle today where there were beautiful children. (Oops…out of time)

9:26: The TeeVee tells me that Detroit is kicking Oakland’s ass.

9:29: Fuck…this is boring. I want JOE!!!!

9:30: Inslee: Women should have access to contraceptive services (and men, for that matter).

9:31: Inslee supports marriage equality. McKenna…not so much.

9:34: McKenna starts doing metacommentary…

9:35: I see men hugging men on TeeVee. It isn’t a Dan Savage special…it’s PROFESSIONAL SPORTS!

9:37: Pot: Jay will vote no, but will uphold the will of the voters.

9:40: Pot: Rob…not so much.

9:41: Time out for a sec. GAWD…I cannot express how unappealing I find McKenna…WHAT A FUCKING WHINING, SNIVELING, GEEKY, SICKLY DWEEB. Okay…back to normal….

9:45: McKenna would operate in a “bipartisan fashon”. Yeah. Like being a founding principle in the failed state AG lawsuit against “Obamacare.”

9:49: On Gun Control: Inslee wants a zero-tolerance policy on violence. Complements his opponent on making progress in this area.

9:54: Inslee hits McKenna on that stupid “Old men sitting in a diner complaining about taxes” ad. I guess that’s okay, but that add is so amateurish that he didn’t really need to waste the words.

9:56: Closing statements. Fucking yeah!!!!

Take home message: McKenna is a congenital whiner. He can’t help it—it’s in his DNA. As a good liberal, I shouldn’t discriminate against him for it. But FUCK, IS HE FUCKING ANNOYING!!!!

Vice President Joe Biden faces off with Congressman Paul Ryan this evening at 6:00 PM. I’m about a mile from the Montlake Ale House in stop and go traffic, blogging while stopped.

If you can, please join the debate party at the Ale House.

6:03: [Darryl] GAME ON!

6:04: [Darryl] Paul Ryan lies on his second sentence. He says it took 2 weeks to call it a terrorist attack. In fact, Obama called it a terrorist attack the day after.

6:07: [Darryl] Whoa…Paul Ryan goes off into La La land…

6:07 [Carl] Ryan is annoying as fuck. Whenever someone says “Apologize for America” I want to scream.

6:10: [Darryl] Biden stumbles at the end of a good build-up, but essentially he successfully defended Ryan’s “weakness” bullshit.

6:12: [Darryl] Did anyone bother to prep. Ryan on the news of the day: (1) The Benghazi consulate was a CIA outpost, and (2) Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) Republicans cut funding for state dept. security.

6:13: [Carl] Moderator: “There’s no bigger national security issue than Iran.” Loose nukes?

6:17: [Darryl] Paul Ryan channels the Ayatollahs! That’s probably easy for him—you know, another reactionary religious fanatic.

6:17 [Carl] Ryan: “They’re spinning their centrifuges faster.” Is that the issue? I don’t know nuclear issues.

6:20: [Darryl] Biden calls Ryan on THE BIG MYTH: Iran is building a weapon. They aren’t.

6:23: [Darryl] Joe gets the last word: “This President doesn’t bluff!”

6:26: [Darryl] Joe gets to do a passionate stump speech. Ryan comes back by suggesting unemployment is getting worse!?! Does he think he can get away with that?

6:28: [Darryl] Ryan inserted a canned anecdote but it isn’t clear what it has to do with anything!

6:29: [Darryl] Joe gives his own death anecdote (a much more personal one), but it is ALSO off topic. These Bozos need to read the fucking COMMENT POLICY!

6:30: [Darryl] Mmmmm…Green Pork!

6:33: [Darryl] I’m probably biased, but from what I see, Biden is cleaning up when he points out that Ryan wrote advocating for stimulus funds.

6:36: [Darryl] I just figured out that Carl Ballard was trying to co-blog with me (virtually). So I updated with his queued stuff. Sorry Carl!

6:38: [Darryl] “Folks, follow your instincts on this one” — Joe Biden on the Ryan Medicare Voucher program.

6:39: [Darryl] Ryan: “They were caught with their hands in the cookie jar to fund ObamaCare”. Ummm…that is a very creative way of spinning cost savings that you, yourself proposed.

6:41: [Carl] When Ryan says he worked with “an Oregon Senator” that Oregon Senator already called him a liar.

6:43: [Darryl] Joe will not let young Eddie Munster get away with anything!

6:45: [Darryl] Paul Ryan’s hair is sweating something fierce!

6:47: [Darryl]: Shorter Ryan: Tax cuts for the wealthy will grow the economy! Didn’t we try that for 8 miserable years that ended in an economic calamity???

6:46: [Carl] I’m listening to this on the radio, like when I thought Obama did fine, but I think Biden is winning.

6:49: [Darryl] Ryan repeats Mitt’s lie about the “six studies” that support their “math”. Note to Republicans: Editorials don’t count as “studies”.

6:52: [Darryl] Biden is more effective on criticizing the Romney/Ryan tax program because he feeds specifics right back at Ryan. I don’t think Ryan is used to people seeing through his bullshit so easily.

6:54: [Darryl] The moderator said something about “math”! The Wingnut “BIAS” shitstorm begins in 3, 2, 1…

6:52: [Carl] The deficits are the least to worry about when the economy is on the rocks.

6:57: [Darryl] Now that I know that Paul Ryan sat with a Native American in Afghanistan in 2002 I may have to rethink this whole “voting for Obama” thing!!!

6:57: [Carl] Finally an hour into the second debate, we can mention the war.

7:02: [Darryl] Ryan tries to equivocate between keeping the deadline but not “emboldening our enemies” by giving a deadline.

7:01: [Carl] Ryan fucked up his growing abroad / not at home zinger. Parallel construction isn’t that tough.

7:05: [Darryl] Fuck…I’m voting for JOE!

7:07: [Darryl] Paul Ryan gets into some bizarre head movements while talking about fighting seasons. That’ll make for some fun YouTube remixes!

7:09: [Darryl] Sheesh…I’m pretty fucking sick of Biden making gaffe after gaffe….

7:10: [Darryl] Oops. I meant “pummel”, not gaffe.

7:11: [Carl] This anti-UN stuff from Ryan is making me think he hasn’t read Romney’s book where he praises the UN.

7:13: [Darryl] There are only 13 people in the world who knows Romney praises the UN in his book…and OUR Carl Ballard is one of them!

7:14: [Darryl] Ryan is pro-life because of “science”. Ryan saw a heartbeat in a itty bitty bean. That makes him believe life begins at conception. (Note: It doesn’t…a sperm and an egg are as alive as a fertilized egg.) So, I’m not sure where the science come into it.

7:14 [Carl] Remember when all of our trolls said Obama was making a mistake keeping Biden?

7:16 [Carl] I’m glad they’re talking about abortion, but throwing Catholicism in there is dumb.

7:18: [Darryl] Biden also believes that life begins at conception. But HE DOESN’T CLAIM THAT IS SCIENCE.

7:19: [Darryl] Ryan disses one entire branch of our government with his “unelected judges” comment. Why does he hate the Constitution? I mean if Jesus wanted judges elected he would have put it in the Constitution!!!

7:24: [Darryl] The candidates are asked about the nasty tone of the campaign. When Ryan goes, he launches into a nasty tirade. BIG TIME FAIL!

7:26: [Darryl] I remember just the other day…I was walking down the street and some homeless, runaway debt crisis tackled me! FUCK those tackling debt crises.

7:21 [Carl] So, looks like one abortion question, and it looks like there won’t be anything about the Violence Against Women Act being held up and only talked a little around birth control. Hard to believe that women are 52% of the population and are allowed to vote in this country.

7:29: [Darryl] Closing time…every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end.

7:30: [Darryl] Ryan accuses Obama of “higher taxes”. NOT TRUE. BIG LIE.

7:32: [Darryl] Ryan asks me for my vote. “Fuck no…I’m voting JOE!”

It’s over. I’d be a big supporter of Paul Ryan if I wanted to invade Syria and Nuke Iran. Woooooohoooo…Bush-style Cowboy diplomacy all over again!!!!!

Join us for an evening of drinks, conversation and political debate at a special Debate Night Edition of Seattle’s Drinking Liberally. The event is Thursday evening.

There are two debates to watch: the VP debate between VP Joe Biden (D) and Congressman Paul Ryan (R), followed by a gubernatorial debate between former WA-1 Congressman Jay Inslee (D) and Washington AG Rob McKenna (R).

We will meet at our usual place, the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E.

The Montlake Ale House opens at 5:00pm, and the VP debate begins at 6:00pm.

Note: We will have picture and audio for the VP debate. But for the gubernatorial debate, we’ll have the picture, but no sound. If you are serious about listening to the debate, I recommend you bring an FM radio and headsets or earbuds. Even the VP debate my be hard to hear with the background noise. I believe KUOW will be broadcasting the debates. Additionally, the Montlake Alehouse has free WiFi. Ask your server for the password.

I’ll be live blogging (with Carl Ballard, I believe) from the Ale House. I hope you can join us.

In the comment thread this evening, Serial Conservative asked me to comment on this:

Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos, whose polls are aggregated into mainstream averages to show where the presidential race stands in the swing states, said he’s finished polling in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia because President Obama has no shot of winning those states.

“I think in places like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, we’ve already painted those red, we’re not polling any of those states again,” Paleologos said Tuesday night on Fox’s “The O’Reilly Factor.” “We’re focusing on the remaining states.”

It pains me to have to admit…I’m with Bill O’Reilly on this one:

Fox News anchor Bill O’Reilly seemed perplexed, and asked Paleologos if he was certain those three states were already in the bag for Romney.

Here’s Mr. Paleologos’ reasoning:

“That’s right, and here’s why. Before the debate, the Suffolk poll had Obama ahead 46 to 43 [in Florida] in the head-to-head number,” Paleologos responded.
“A poor place to be for a couple of reasons. Number one, his ballot test, his head-to-head number was below 47 percent before the debate, and it’s very, very difficult when you have the known quantity, the incumbent, to claw your way up to 50. So that was a very, very poor place for him to be.

“So we’re looking at this polling data not only in Florida but in Virginia and North Carolina and it’s overwhelming,” Paleologos concluded.

Whoa…hold on there a sec, Bucky! This poll?

Obama was LEADING in Florida. Not behind. Not tied. But leading by +3%.

A straightforward reading of that evidence suggests Obama was in the stronger position. But, Paleologos felt it was bad that Obama didn’t have 50%.

Two problems. First, 46% to 43% Obama lead did not include leaners. The poll actually did assessed leaners, though, and when you include them Obama is at 48%.

On top of that, the poll included 10 additional 3rd party or independent candidates! Those candidates got 2.5% of the “votes.” So…in a close state, where the scale for the two major party candidates goes from 0% to 97.5%, the middle of the scale is 48.75%, and Obama got 48%. That’s pretty fucking close to half the available votes.

Moreover, in this poll, Obama beat Romney in favorability 51% to 45%.

Really…this “theory” by Paleologos seem pretty fucking far fetched to me.

The story is not too dissimilar in Virginia. The last Suffolk poll had Obama leading Romney, 46% to 44%. With leaners, it was a 46.5% to 44.8% race. There were three third-party candidates on the ballot that took 2.2% of the “votes” away. And, again, Obama beat Romney in favorability, 52% to 42%.

Once again, it is pretty fucking bizarre to use this poll to argue that Obama will lose the state.

And here’s the bizarre thing about North Carolina: Suffolk hasn’t done any North Carolina polling. I don’t find them in my database, RCP doesn’t have ’em either. I’ve checked with a few online polling aggregation sites, and find no evidence that Suffolk has done any polling in the state. I guess this means he is relying on other people’s polls (OPP, as we say in the biz).

So let’s look at OPP in Florida for the past two months:

A plain reading of this graph suggests that Obama took the lead from Romney by mid-September and held a pretty solid lead until the post-debate period. And then it looks pretty much like a tie. My most recent analysis gives Obama a 54.9% chance of winning the state now, based on the last six polls in the state.

And now for some OPP from Virginia over the past two months:

Really, Virginia shows an identical pattern. Indeed, my Monte Carlo analysis puts the race in Virginia at a tie right at the moment.

And North Carolina with two months of OPP:

It looks like Obama led from mid-September to late September. The two October polls give Romney the lead, for sure, but a “certain win”? Well…Romney would have a 95% probability of winning the state in an election held now, according to my analysis of this polling evidence.

I can buy an argument the Romney is likely to take North Carolina. But he has a bit of work to do before it is a “sure thing.” For Florida and Virginia, only a fool could look at this collection of evidence objectively and find a “certain” win for either candidate. These two states are very close right now. More polling is needed, not less!

So I don’t know what the hell David Paleologos was babbling about. It seems illogical. You know…an opinion that is free from being encumbered by evidence.

The worst part: I’m still creeped out by finding myself in agreement with Bill O’Reilly. I mean, what the fuck?!?