by Darryl, 10/18/2012, 7:21 PM
Obama Romney
96.7% probability of winning 3.3% probability of winning
Mean of 300 electoral votes Mean of 238 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Our previous analysis had seen President Barack Obama slip a little but more, although he still led Gov. Mitt Romney by a mean of 288 to 250 electoral votes. The analysis further concluded that Obama would only have an 86.5% probability of winning an election now; Romney was at a 13.5% probability of winning.

Some new polls have arrived.

Some comments on polls: First, there were a boatload of polls released by YouGov on Tuesday. If you are an Obama fan, they look pretty encouraging. Alas, I will not be including them in my analysis, as they are on-line polls. For the same reason, I will not include this Zogby poll in Florida showing Obama up +3%.

Second, there is a new New Jersey poll from Neighborhood Research on behalf of Americans for Prosperity released yesterday. It shows Obama with a +7% lead in New Jersey.

I was very tempted to totally ignore a poll from a David Koch group formed out of the Tea Party movement. But the methods section points out that:

This poll was commissioned as a public service to provide citizens with information related to public policy.

Call me a sucker, call me a fool, but until someone can show me that this was a selectively released or intentionally biased poll, I’ll follow my rules and include it.

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO PPP 16-Oct 18-Oct 1000 3.1 50 47 O+3
CO Grove Insight 15-Oct 16-Oct 500 4.4 47 44 O+3
CO WeAskAmerica 15-Oct 15-Oct 1206 2.9 47.0 48.1 R+1.1
CT PPP 15-Oct 16-Oct 1015 3.1 53 44 O+9
CT U CT 11-Oct 16-Oct 574 4.0 51 37 O+14
CT Siena 04-Oct 14-Oct 552 4.2 53 38 O+15
IN Rasmussen 10-Oct 11-Oct 600 4.0 41 54 R+13
IA Marist 15-Oct 17-Oct 1137 2.9 51 43 O+8
IA WeAskAmerica 15-Oct 15-Oct 1499 2.6 48.7 45.9 O+2.8
MA PPP 15-Oct 16-Oct 709 3.7 57 39 O+18
MA Rasmussen 10-Oct 10-Oct 500 4.5 57 42 O+15
MI EPIC/MRA 17-Oct 17-Oct 800 3.5 52 46 O+6
MI Denno Research 11-Oct 11-Oct 500 4.5 44.2 40.5 O+3.7
MN SurveyUSA 12-Oct 14-Oct 550 4.3 50 40 O+10
MT PPP 15-Oct 16-Oct 806 3.5 43 53 R+10
MT Rasmussen 14-Oct 14-Oct 500 4.5 45 53 R+8
NV Grove Insight 15-Oct 16-Oct 500 4.4 50 43 O+7
NV Rasmussen 15-Oct 15-Oct 500 4.5 50 47 O+3
NV SurveyUSA 11-Oct 15-Oct 806 3.5 48 45 O+3
NH Rasmussen 15-Oct 15-Oct 500 4.5 50 49 O+1
NH Suffolk 12-Oct 14-Oct 500 4.4 46.8 47.2 R+0.4
NJ Neighborhood Research 10-Oct 14-Oct 783 3.5 48.4 41.4 O+7.0
NJ Quinnipiac 10-Oct 14-Oct 1319 2.7 51 43 O+8
NC Rasmussen 17-Oct 17-Oct 500 4.5 46 52 R+6
OH Rasmussen 17-Oct 17-Oct 750 4.0 49 48 O+1
OH SurveyUSA 12-Oct 15-Oct 613 4.0 45.4 42.4 O+2.9
PA Quinnipiac 12-Oct 14-Oct 1519 2.5 50 46 O+4
PA Susquehanna 11-Oct 13-Oct 1376 45 49 R+4
WA PPP 15-Oct 16-Oct 574 50 45 O+5
WA Rasmussen 14-Oct 14-Oct 500 4.5 55 42 O+13
WA SurveyUSA 12-Oct 14-Oct 543 4.3 54 40 O+14
WA Washington Poll 01-Oct 16-Oct 644 3.9 51.9 42.9 O+9.0
WI Marist 15-Oct 17-Oct 1013 3.1 51 45 O+6
WI Marquette 11-Oct 14-Oct 870 3.4 48.5 48.1 O+0.5

Just a couple of weeks ago, Romney seemed on the road to building a solid lead in Colorado. Today, Obama has a +3% in two new polls, and Romney gets a +1.1% lead in another. But with nine current polls (and 5 of them in Obama’s favor), Obama ends up winning 71% of the elections in the state:

ObamaRomney18Sep12-18Oct12Colorado

Two new polls in Iowa go to Obama, on by a remarkable +8% and the other one by an unremarkable +2.8%. Romney leads in none of the four current polls and the analysis suggests Obama would take the state with a 96% probability.

We also get two new Michigan polls. One has Obama up by a middling +6% and the other by an unimpressive +3.7%. Still, Obama takes all seven current polls, and Romney has not led in the past 20 polls…dating back to August. Obama is at a 99% probability of taking the state in an election now.

Two new Montana polls verify that Romney really does have a high single-digit lead. Romney is at 100% in the state.

Three Nevada polls all go to Obama by mid-single digits. Aside from one tie, Obama has led in the seven current polls. The polling trend seems to show Obama’s lead growing again and almost reaching his mid-September high:

ObamaRomney18Sep12-18Oct12Nevada

New Hampshire flipped from Obama to Romney after the first debate. Now we may be seeing it just starting to flop back. Obama takes one of two new polls, but still lags Romney in our current polls. Based on these polls, Romney would win with a 64% probability an election held now.

Romney seem to be hanging on to his lead in North Carolina with help of this new +6%. Romney takes all five of the current polls, and would be almost certain to win the state right now:

ObamaRomney18Sep12-18Oct12North Carolina

Two new polls in Ohio both go to Obama, but by pretty small margins (+1% and +2.9%). Even so, Obama has eight of twelve current polls and his series of small leads provide evidence he would win the state in an election now with an 87% probability:

ObamaRomney18Sep12-18Oct12Ohio

The biggest surprise of this batch of polls is that Mitt Romney finally takes the lead in one Pennsylvania poll. But, Obama leads by an equal amount in the other Pennsylvania poll, and one that is slightly larger (and newer). Overall, Obama takes seven of eight current polls, but the new one knocks Obama down to only a 92% probability of winning the state now.

Four new Washington polls give Obama leads from +5% to +14%. Combining the four current polls suggest Obama would win Washington with a probability of 100% by about +10%.

Two new Wisconsin polls both go to Obama, although one by a tiny margin. Still, with Obama up in all six current polls, it earns him a 95% probability of taking the state.

Now, 100,000 simulated elections later, Obama wins 96,710 times and Romney wins 3,290 times (and Romney gets the 414 ties out of this, too). Obama receives (on average) 300 (+12) to Romney’s 238 (-12) electoral votes. The Monte Carlo analysis suggests that, if the election was today, Obama would have a 96.7% (+10.2%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 3.3% (-10.2%) probability of winning.

You could say that the past three days have not been good polling days for Romney. It is always dangerous to call a trend after a single analysis, but it look like the previous analysis marked Romney’s high water mark, about the same he achieved after the Republican convention.

This can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 18 Oct 2011 to 18 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding 14 days (FAQ). See the little upward blip?

ObamaRomney18Oct11-18Oct12ex

The same upward blip can be seen in the Intrade chart of median prices that I captured this morning:

Intrade18OCT

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

  • 311 electoral votes with a 3.71% probability
  • 310 electoral votes with a 3.69% probability
  • 301 electoral votes with a 3.47% probability
  • 297 electoral votes with a 3.44% probability
  • 302 electoral votes with a 3.35% probability
  • 299 electoral votes with a 3.26% probability
  • 291 electoral votes with a 3.17% probability
  • 298 electoral votes with a 3.11% probability
  • 305 electoral votes with a 2.54% probability
  • 303 electoral votes with a 2.53% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 96.7%, Romney wins 3.3%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 300.4 (17.1)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 237.6 (17.1)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 300 (268, 337)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 238 (201, 270)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Obama 152
Strong Obama 101 253
Leans Obama 44 44 297
Weak Obama 13 13 13 310
Weak Romney 1 1 1 228
Leans Romney 34 34 227
Strong Romney 106 193
Safe Romney 87

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

0 0 EC # Total % % Obama Romney
8 4 Votes polls Votes Obama Romney % wins % wins
AL 9 1* 404 39.6 60.4 0.2 99.8
AK 3 0* (0) (100)
AZ 11 1 450 51.1 48.9 62.7 37.3
AR 6 1* 2006 38.3 61.7 0.0 100.0
CA 55 2 1218 60.3 39.7 100.0 0.0
CO 9 9 7828 50.5 49.5 71.2 28.8
CT 7 4 2473 55.8 44.2 100.0 0.0
DE 3 0 (100) (0)
DC 3 1* 94 88.3 11.7 100.0 0.0
FL 29 9 6602 49.0 51.0 12.8 87.2
GA 16 1 664 45.8 54.2 6.9 93.1
HI 4 1* 1549 67.4 32.6 100.0 0.0
ID 4 1 563 30.0 70.0 0.0 100.0
IL 20 1 637 60.4 39.6 100.0 0.0
IN 11 1 570 43.2 56.8 0.9 99.1
IA 6 4 3543 52.0 48.0 95.8 4.3
KS 6 2* 1143 39.4 60.6 0.0 100.0
KY 8 1* 557 42.4 57.6 0.6 99.4
LA 8 1 2548 37.9 62.1 0.0 100.0
ME 2 5* 2886 58.4 41.6 100.0 0.0
ME1 1 2* 588 62.2 37.8 100.0 0.0
ME2 1 2* 538 54.6 45.4 93.3 6.8
MD 10 2* 1471 61.5 38.5 100.0 0.0
MA 11 5 3015 58.6 41.4 100.0 0.0
MI 16 7 4879 52.2 47.8 98.6 1.4
MN 10 2 1395 55.3 44.7 99.6 0.4
MS 6 1* 717 40.0 60.0 0.0 100.0
MO 10 4* 2975 47.6 52.4 3.6 96.4
MT 3 3 1949 44.8 55.2 0.0 100.0
NE 2 1* 728 44.0 56.0 1.2 98.8
NE1 1 1* 389 45.5 54.5 11.0 89.0
NE2 1 1* 352 50.0 50.0 48.9 51.1
NE3 1 1* 284 35.9 64.1 0.0 100.0
NV 6 7 4348 51.4 48.6 89.5 10.5
NH 4 4 2021 49.5 50.5 36.5 63.5
NJ 14 3 2493 54.6 45.4 99.9 0.1
NM 5 2 1064 55.6 44.4 99.5 0.5
NY 29 1* 1426 64.6 35.4 100.0 0.0
NC 15 5 3510 47.2 52.8 1.1 98.9
ND 3 1 588 42.5 57.5 0.5 99.5
OH 18 12 9521 50.9 49.1 87.3 12.7
OK 7 1* 431 33.4 66.6 0.0 100.0
OR 7 1* 499 54.9 45.1 93.9 6.1
PA 20 8 6255 51.3 48.7 92.0 8.0
RI 4 2* 900 63.9 36.1 100.0 0.0
SC 9 3* 4199 48.2 51.8 4.4 95.6
SD 3 1* 706 44.3 55.7 1.4 98.6
TN 11 1* 654 46.0 54.0 7.2 92.8
TX 38 2* 2090 41.1 58.9 0.0 100.0
UT 6 1* 1149 27.7 72.3 0.0 100.0
VT 3 1* 415 71.3 28.7 100.0 0.0
VA 13 8 6735 50.1 49.9 55.5 44.5
WA 12 4 2150 55.3 44.7 100.0 0.0
WV 5 1* 361 42.1 57.9 1.8 98.2
WI 10 6 5501 51.6 48.4 95.1 4.9
WY 3 0 (0) (100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

72 Responses to “Poll Analysis: Obama surges to 300”

1. Richard Pope spews:

That Arizona poll from Behavior Research Center, showing the slight Obama lead, definitely seems like an outlier. McCain won Arizona by a decent margin in 2008, and all the conventional wisdom has Romney as a very probable winner there. Sort of puts you in the same old boat you had with South Carolina.

Nearly half of your change from 250 EV Romney last analysis on 10/15 to 238 EV Romney today on 10/18 comes from Romney’s chances in Arizona dropping from 83.9% to 37.3%.

2. Zeke spews:

How much of the improvement from 288 mean electoral votes in the last analysis to 300 mean electoral votes this time around is dependent on the flip of Arizona (11 electoral votes) from a 16% chance of Obama winning to a 62% chance? Is that the biggest swing in your analysis?

ETA: The AZ polls you used in the last analysis are still fresh, right? Any reason they got dropped?

3. Darryl spews:

Richard,

The issue is nothing at all like SC. That was a case of taking only the most recent old poll when no current poll exists. AZ is the case of there being only one current poll.

I have great confidence there will be new AZ polls. But even if there isn’t, this poll will “age out” and then we’ll have an average of several older polls take over.

Is the poll an outlier? Maybe. But somebody asked AZ likely voters who they would vote for, and Obama came out on top. That’s evidence, and who am I to judge it to be wrong. By the same token, I am not judging today’s PA poll that has Romney up, either.

4. Darryl spews:

Zeke,
You can multiply AZs Electoral Votes (11) by the old and new probabilities. It looks like Romney lost about 5 votes as his other AZ polls dropped out.

There were two AZ polls for the previous analysis. But the oldest “aged out”. It falls outside the 14 day window.

5. Roger Rabbit spews:

@1 I saw a news story a few days ago about a poll that put Obama ahead in Arizona. Implausible? Not necessarily, considering the large Hispanic population there.

6. Puddybud spews:

Yeah this Arizona poll is interesting…. It was taken AFTER the 1st debate.

Behavior Research Center – leans lefty. Has anyone seen Obummer campaign in Arizona like he’s campaigning in other “safe” lefty states that are tightening or flipped to Romney? Has anyone heard of Romney going to Arizona? OUTLIER!!!

The previous poll http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2012/09/21/new-poll-shows-3-point-romney-lead.html taken BEFORE the debate had Romney up by 3. When you evaluate the cross tabs and look voter registration only 20 percent of the Hispanic population is registered to vote. Now maybe if you use Francine Busby (Puddy knows most HA libtards don’t remember her) illegal alien vote sampling, you would get Obummer ahead.

Butt, looking at the poll of who probably won’t vote here is what you see:

Hispanics 24 percent
Liberals 11 percent
Independents 22 percent
Democrats 15 percent
Republicans 4 percent
Caucasians 10 percent
Conservatives 10 percent

Please use that poll Perfessa. Please!

7. Puddybud spews:

Why not contact University of Colorado Professor Kenneth Bickers and see how his computer model predicts Romney winning?

8. Puddybud spews:

Yes, always trust Da Perfessa’s analysis!

9. MikeBoyScout spews:

With each passing day now the path to victory narrows for Gekko/Galt. The election is not on November 6 it is NOW. In fact, you probably will have your WA ballot before the weekend is out.

RALEIGH, N.C. — The presidential campaign of Mitt Romney has begun shifting staff out of North Carolina, saying Thursday it was feeling confident enough that the state would go Republican next month.

Maybe Gekko/Galt will win NC, but Obama/Biden is not pulling out and voting is underway in NC. With the impending loss of OH, Gekko/Galt must win in NC and while Gekko/Galt feels confident and will let it go at that, Obama/Biden are getting out their vote.

It’s flop sweat time for Republicans.

Gekko/Galt is the anvil
We are the HAMMER!

Hammer it home

11. MikeBoyScout spews:

Hear that sound?
It’s the sound of coffin nails getting hammered.

(Reuters) – China comprehensively lost an appeal on Thursday against a World Trade Organization ruling in a dispute over U.S. exports of specialty steel used in power transformers.

The dispute involved duties imposed by China on “grain-oriented electrical steel”, a product made by AK Steel Corp and ATI Allegheny Ludlum, which are based in the electoral battleground states of Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Gekko/Galt is the anvil
We are the HAMMER!

Hammer it home

12. Very Severe Conservative spews:

[Deleted -- see HA Comment Policy]

13. Harry Poon spews:

AZ is not an entirely predictable conservative bastion. The mayor of Phoenix is a Democrat. What’s her name at Homeland is a Democrat. Tucson and much of the surrounding area is solidly Democrat.

From time to time, the people of Maricopa County get tired of being viewed as complete nincompoops (re the Evan Mecham ‘pickaninny’ dustup) and will vote Democrat(ic).

14. MikeBoyScout spews:

Re my comment @9 about North Carolina, Slick Willard’s confidence about leaving.

As I said, voting is underway in North Carolina.

So, if Slick Willard is leaving because he is winning NC, would you expect voting stats like these in NC?

Democrats voted: 47.3%
Republicans voted: 34.77%
Unaffiliateds voted: 17.76%
Libertarians voted: 0.17%

Unless losing is winning, that ain’t winning.

Gekko/Galt is the anvil
We are the HAMMER!

Hammer it home

15. Serial conservative spews:

Darryl’s analysis has VA in the Obama column largely due to an older poll that has O +5.

Today, Rasmussen:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/virginia/election_2012_virginia_president

Romney up 50 to 47.

Add that poll in and the state flips. The state flips in 3 more days when the old poll falls off, anyway, I think.

16. Jerry spews:

Romney needs Ohio, plain & simple. Winning Ohio will translate into winning some of these other close Battleground States. NC is Romney’s. So are Virginia and Florida.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Those States give Romney 266.
That means Romney needs 4 more out of these–
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

Also keep in mind that Maine gives out Electoral College votes BY DISTRICT. Look at Maine’s 2nd Congressional District where Romney is battling because if Romney does lose Ohio, he can still get to 270 a number of ways, including one path that this one vote will make all the difference.
I think the polls are now being forced to be more realistic in their turnout models to try and maintain credibility. No one can convince me that Romney gained millions of women overnight because of Debate #1..yet some of the left-leaning polls declared that. It was a convenient excuse to at long last reflect reality and to hide their game of trying to impact the election by portraying Romney as out of it. He’s not. The last people to admit that will be right here at HA.org. The black hole of reality.

17. Serial conservative spews:

MBS @ 14

Yes, I would expect Obama to leave.

Yesterday, Rasmussen:

North Carolina: Romney 52%, Obama 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2012_north_carolina_president

Likely voter poll with Romney up 6, 19 days to go.

IIRC we still haven’t seen Obama’s COH number from September-end, which to me suggests he burned through a lot of what he took in and has limited remaining resources. (Apologies if this is incorrect.)

He barely took NC in 2008, this isn’t 2008, he’s down 6, the South in general is turning red as the election approaches, and he’s got other states to defend with limited resources.

I think he’d be out of FL right now if it weren’t for the likely panic attack it would cause amongst his base.

He’ll lose VA as well.

18. Jerry spews:

@17–I’m with you on this analysis.
With Fl, NC & VA, Romney is at 248.
With Maine’s 2nd District, Romney is at 249.
Can Romney get 21 out of these?
Ohio (18)
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

19. Jerry spews:

I find it amazing that a CNN Poll shows 71.9% actually believe Obama will win the 3rd Debate on Foreign Policy. Wow. If Obama wins decisively, it may tip the election. If Romney brings it to him on his record (killing Osama has had it’s half life), which I think he will, America will see Obama’s failed policy of Appeasement. They will blame Obama for Benghazi and the deaths of 4 Americans that Obama labeled “not optimal”. WTF!

The 3rd Debate will seal the deal for Romney. I don’t think Obama enjoys the role of President. Obama just likes BEING the President. As far as policy goes, Obama is worse than Jimmy Carter.

20. MikeBoyScout spews:

@17 Kap’n Kornflake,
I’m glad to hear those Rasmussen numbers are making you confident. Are you confident enough to up our wager to a respectable Rmoney amount of $10k?

@18 of the 12 states you’ve identified I hope you’ve stocked enough tissues to wipe your salty bitter tears on November 7th when Slick Willard only wins 3 of ‘em.

21. rhp6033 spews:

Within a day or two after the final debate (sometime this week?), the table will be set. There’s not much more that either candidate can do other than try to fire up their base and GOTV campaigns.

Which means Romney will have to hit it out of the park on the foreign policy debate. That’s going to be a bit hard with the current campaign themes (Bengazi, consistency in message, support for Israel, no apologies, military budget cuts). He needs something specific. So far, he doesn’t have anything. So watch for something he pulls completely out of the nethersphere to try to create a “soft on defense” issue.

22. Jerry spews:

@21–
http://news.yahoo.com/explosion-rocks-central-beirut-witnesses-120610495.html

The Middle East is blowing up. Obama has failed us in foreign policy (policy of appeasement) and economically. GM is alive and Osama is dead has lost all traction.
Obama has not shared his plan for the next 4 years. Frankly, I don’t think he has one.

23. Politically Incorrect - free minds, free markets, free people spews:

“The Middle East is blowing up.”

Yeah, and that’s a good reason for us to get the hell out of the Middle East and let those people sort out their own problems. Israel can take care of itself, and so can the rest of the Middle East.

24. MikeBoyScout spews:

@22 “Please, proceed, Governor”

25. Serial conservative spews:

@ 20

Nah, MBS, I’m good. But perhaps I should reserve the right to make the same offer to you, maybe in the final weekend before the election, once Romney has what I think is an insurmountable lead.

MBS, I bet you and your two buddies won every 3-on-1 high school fight you had.

It’s always harder to swim against the current.

26. Rael spews:

Conservative trolls:

Romney is doomed.

You know it.

Give up.

27. MikeBoyScout spews:

@23 Politically Incorrect,
And which of the 2 candidates for president said we should get out of Iraq by a date certain and which deplored the idea?

And which of the 2 candidates for president has committed to getting out of Afghanistan by a date certain and which prevaricates about it?

28. MikeBoyScout spews:

@25 Kap’n Kornflake,

You’ll make no such offer because in your heart you already know Slick Willard is going to lose. But, f*ck, if you got the nutsack let’s go super Rmoney on the wager.

And I’ve no idea what the hell a ” 3-on-1 high school fight” is.

29. Darryl spews:

Person Playing Puddybud,

I normally ignore your character’s comedy show, but I noticed you were having him/her deal with facts. Nice! And you almost seem interested in the AZ situation.

The one thing that the Rocky Mountain poll (the only “current poll”) does differently, is that they have live, interviews, including interviews in Spanish.

Doing this can have good and bad effects, in part, depending on how it is implemented.

The GOOD effect, is that folks who are more (or only) comfortable with Spanish will actually get polled. Given the large Latino population in AZ, other polls may be seriously skewed toward the non-Spanish speaking population preference proportions.

The negative effects can be: (1) They may OVERREPRESENT the Hispanic vote, just because of the novelty of participating in a Spanish interview, and (2) there may be an INTERVIEWER EFFECT if native English speakers can detect an accent in the interviewer. That is, people may be inclined to respond how they believe the interviewer wants them to respond.

“Please use that poll Perfessa. Please!”

I am using all “current polls”, which currently means I am using all polls taken in the past two weeks. Right now there is only one such poll.

BTW: I’ll shortly be going to a 10 day “current poll” window. Eventually the current AZ poll will “age out”. Then, if there are no newer “current polls” released, I’ll end up averaging several older AZ polls. So, the old poll that you prefer may, in fact, end up back in the analysis.

I hope that clarifies things.

30. Serial conservative spews:

Anyone seen Obama’s September-end COH? It’s the 19th. I think the numbers are due by the 20th.

Do we see the number as part of the Friday Document Dump?

Maybe at 3 a.m. Saturday morning?

Check out the line graph in this site:

http://race42012.com/category/fundraising/

Romney had a lead at August-end, increased his cash pile at September-end, and had a cash deluge on top of that in the first week of October after Debate 1.

If Obama’s going to blunt the Romney surge he’s going to need some cash to accomplish it.

Where’s the dough, Barack?

There are three reasons to pull out of a state:

1. You’ve clearly lost it.
2. You need to re-allocate resources to a must-win state where there’s trouble.

and

3. You don’t have the money to keep the operation going in each place you want to keep the operation going.

Look at the COH number, and look at when, and how, it’s released. Should be rather telling.

31. Politically Incorrect - free minds, free markets, free people spews:

@27,

The only candidate who said anything about getting out of the Middle East is Ron Paul. I’ll be writing him in for prez tomorrow when my mail-in ballot arrives.

Obama and Romney both will continue to kowtow to the Israeli lobby in the US. What’s needed is a withdrawal from the Middle East and the rest of the world. With a $16 trillion credit card tab, we cannot continue to be the world’s policeman.

32. Michael spews:

@30

Anyone seen Obama’s September-end COH? It’s the 19th. I think the numbers are due by the 20th.

Obama: $88,777,411
Romney: $50,434,404

http://www.fec.gov/fecviewer/CandidateCommitteeDetail.do#2
Look under “report summaries.”

33. Michael spews:

@31
I’ve there’s a lot of Gary Johnson signs going up in my neighborhood.

34. Politically Incorrect - free minds, free markets, free people spews:

@33,

I’d vote for Gary Johnson, but I’m going to vote for Ron Paul since he’ll be retiring soon from the House and returning to privae life. It’s sort of a final gesture of appeciation to Ron Paul for being such a great champion of individual liberty, limited government and sound monetary policy.

35. Serial conservative spews:

@ 32

I couldn’t trace it.

Lemme ask it this way: Seen any press reports of it?

Google “Obama cash on hand september”. You get a Reuters piece two days ago saying Team Obama hasn’t mentioned COH.

I’m not sure what numbers you have or what filings you used to find them.

36. Serial conservative spews:

MikeBoyScout @ 20:

Regarding said wager, I’m willing to pay up regardless of outcome. That doubles the money going to Darryl’s charity if you agree. Best you’ll get from me. Sort of defeats the purpose of the bet, but my purpose was to put money behind my spews, and to express appreciation to Darryl for the time he spends on this site.

If you agree, and if Darryl names his charity, I’ll cut the charity a check and mail it to Darryl before the election.

37. MikeBoyScout spews:

@35 Kap’n Kornflake,

Hate to break it to you, but COH ain’t the metric to be tracking.

At this point the metric to track is early votes by registered party. I’m not going to do your research for you, but what I know is that Team VICTORY is kicking Slick Willard’s ass. See above @14 for an example of the ass kicking Slick Willard is getting in a state he feels confident he’s winning.

38. Michael spews:

@35

I’m not sure what numbers you have or what filings you used to find them.

I used the link I provided! Type in Obama. Click the Report Summaries button and then search. Then click on the top link
P80003338 which is Obama’s 2012 election campaign.

39. MikeBoyScout spews:

@36 Kap’n Kornflake,
You’re going to be writing that check because Gekko/Galt will go down in defeat, so if you want to write it early feel yourself free.

40. Serial conservative spews:

@ 39

So, lemme get this straight. You want to increase the bet to $10K, which you say you will cough up if Romney wins, but you won’t send Darryl a check for $1K if Obama wins?

What a guy.

41. MikeBoyScout spews:

What’s the status of ZOH? Zingers On Hand

Cuz in Virginia Obama just spent a big one!

If you have Romnesia, here’s the good news—Obamacare covers preexisting conditions. We can fix you! We can make you well.

ZING!

42. Serial conservative spews:

@ 38

Michael, thanks, but that’s incomplete. We know from news reports that Team Obama raised $181M last month. Your link is only OFA, not all the entities usually lumped together, and ‘September monthly’ is what you see. That’s only through end of August.

That’s why I’ve asked for ‘September-end’ COH. When they release it, it will probably be referred to as ‘October monthly’, referring to the month in which the report was filed.

We still don’t have COH from Team Obama.

43. MikeBoyScout spews:

@40 Kap’n Kornflake,
If Darryl would like to solicit me for money, I’ll entertain it.

I offered my wager to you and continue to offer to Rmoney style it up to you to rub your nose in the pathetic fact that you can’t prognosticate at all and you don’t have the earning power you claim to have.

44. Serial conservative spews:

@ 43

So, the fact that I don’t want to make a big wager with you means I don’t have the money to wager with, does it?

I suppose the fact that I don’t drive a 7-series BMW, by that measure, means I can’t afford one.

Got it. I have to take all bets from all who offer, or I’m a lying liar.

Fuck you, MBS.

Darryl, please name your favorite charity. I’ll send you a check made out to that charity this weekend.

I also encourage all other HA libbies to contribute to Darryl’s favorite charity as well, in appreciation for his efforts on this blog. MikeBoyScout, apparently, is waiting for a personal request from Darryl before he’ll consider doing so. What a guy.

45. Michael spews:

Your link is only OFA

No shit. You asked for the Latest on Obama’s cash on hand and that’s the latest on Obama’s cash on hand.

Your link is only OFA, not all the entities usually lumped together,

Again, no shit. If it were “all the entities usually lumped together” it wouldn’t be Obama’s cash on hand.

The next round of numbers will be up next Monday at the latest. Campaigns wait until the last minute to release their numbers because they’ve got a shit ton of work going on and because they want to get every last donation counted in that particular cycle.

How and when the numbers are released isn’t important. Most reporters will get their numbers from the FEC, just like I did.

46. Serial conservative spews:

@ 45

You asked for the Latest…

No, I asked for September-end. You gave me the latest currently available, which isn’t the same thing.

We’ll have September-end in 24 hours. They’ll be released quietly, because they’ll be telling.

I believe that Team Obama will be steamrolled financially in the last two weeks.

Out of money, out of ideas, and out of support.

The political variation of

Fat, Drunk, and Stupid is no way to go through life, son.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bK-Dqj4fHmM

47. MikeBoyScout spews:

@44 Kap’n Kornflake,

Seems the salty bitter tears are flowing early. Is that the realization that the Gekko/Galt BS you’ve been spewing here for months is just that, BS?
Or maybe that over eating under exercising boozer’s disease of gout is acting up on you again?

PS. You didn’t have to wait til today to pony up cash for the front pagers here. That DONATE button has been at the top of every page you’ve wasted our time commenting on all the time, ya freeloading moocher.

48. Serial conservative spews:

@ 47

Aware of that. I’m not interested in sending a few bucks for the DL beer fund.

A charitable deduction, tax-deductible and all, orchestrated, could be a substantial amount of money if everyone who participates here helps out.

There’s a difference.

Make a donation without contingency, don’t make a donation without contingency, I really don’t care. You’re no longer worth my time.

Although I’ll be thinking of you at 8 p.m. on November 6th, MBS. And smiling.

49. MikeBoyScout spews:

@48 Kap’n Kornflake,

You’ll be smiling at 8 p.m. on November 6th? While thinking of me? With a tissue?

I’m flattered you fantasize about me, but if you ever decide to come out of the closet I’m not your type. Sorry. No date.

And while trolling liberal pro marriage equality websites may seem like a good idea for a deeply closeted person to pick-up a little action on the side, it really is not.

50. Darryl spews:

Bob and Mike,

I’ll be happy to name a charity (and one that won’t be overly controversial). Do you both agree to me naming it before the election?

Regarding payment…if the check is made out to the charity and sent through me, I will be happy to forward it and verify for both parties and the HA comment thread community by writing a post of appreciation—if that is what you to agree to do. Also, work out the timing (2 checks before, one returned one forwarded versus 1 check sent to me after from the “loser” and I forward it to the charity) and any other details between you (feel free to do so in the comment threads).

Other forms of verification could work, but you’d have to work it out between you.

51. Serial conservative spews:

Hot off the presses, poll taken today:

Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 46

http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/election_2012_florida_president

I don’t have time to look but this is weird:

Florida allows early voting, and among voters who have already voted, Romney’s ahead 51% to 45%.

Among those who have yet to vote, 88% say they have already made up their minds which candidate they will vote for. Romney leads 54% to 45% among these voters.

So, Romney’s up 6 with those who have already voted, up 9 with those yet to vote, but overall he’s only up 5? WTF?

Takeaway number – of those who haven’t voted yet, Romney up 9 in FL.

52. Darryl spews:

One other point.

I take no compensation for my blogging*.

The Donate button goes to the landlord (a.k.a. Goldy) to support the server costs and whatnot.

* The one exception I can recall was my expenses (but not salary) for covering the Democratic National Convention in 2008. Goldy held a fundraiser and raised enough money to cover much of our transportation, housing and food expenses.

53. Serial conservative spews:

@ 52

Red or white?

54. Serial conservative spews:

Romney up by 1 in Iowa. dKos’s pollster.

PPP’s newest polls in Iowa and New Hampshire find Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 49-48 in both states. That represents a big decline for Obama compared to last month. Obama had previously led 51-44 in Iowa and 51-43.5 in New Hampshire on polls conducted the final week of September.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-point-in-iowa-and-new-hampshire.html

55. Benjamin spews:

@52. “I take no compensation for my blogging*.”

Well you should. Your simulations are fucking GOLD.

56. MikeBoyScout spews:

@50 Darryl,

That’s fine with me. I’ll contact you via email on Saturday.

57. Serial conservative spews:

Seems to me I recall someone ridiculing me for pointing out Romney gains in NH not so very long ago. I believe the implication might have been that NH is insubstantial. Something like that.

Tiny New Hampshire could punch above weight

MANCHESTER, N.H. — As Mitt Romney gains ground in crucial states like Florida and Virginia, President Barack Obama is taking steps to shore up support in smaller battlegrounds that could prove decisive in a razor-close race.

That’s because if Romney can’t put Ohio in his column — the Buckeye State has so far proved stubbornly immune to the Republican’s gains elsewhere — he’ll need to win most of the remaining swing states to capture the presidency.

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=A2E7C67D-C0C8-4FAC-B598-89D53889769C

Kinda unfair that a tiny state with a buncha employed people like NH has an electoral advantage over a giant state packed with deadbeats like CA.

58. Michael spews:

@46

No, I asked for September-end. You gave me the latest currently available, which isn’t the same thing.

While you’re technically correct, you’re also being stupid. It wasn’t available so I not only gave you the latest one. I also showed you where and how to look up the data. I was trying to be helpful.

I believe that Team Obama will be steamrolled financially in the last two weeks.

I’m sure you know the old saw that opinions are like assholes, everybody has one.

We’ll see what’s what when the new filings come out.
If they’re anything like the last filings they’ll show that both camps have plenty of money. Honestly, both sides have so much money that I’m not convinced that Obama’s lead in cash on hand means anything.

59. Michael spews:

@58
Of course, if Romney has all this support and is able to drum up all this cash it does leave you wondering about this:
Debts/Loans Owed By $15,000,000. That’s a lot of debt.

60. Serial conservative spews:

@ 59

That was debt acquired to get through the primary season, because monies in hand at the time for them were restricted for use in the general election. When the primary season is over in May and you have a large operation to run until you can tap your general cash in early September, yeah, you might have to borrow.

OTOH in July, DNC borrowed a big chunk themselves. $8M, I think? Why didn’t OFA, who had no primary opponent, hand them cash instead?

Romney borrowed for a transitional period.

@ 58

Obama did not lead in cash on hand at the most recent comparative tally. When you add COH for the three entities (see that line graph I referred to above), Romney was ahead at last report, not Obama.

Again, I think Obama’s burn rate has been far higher than Romney’s, and I think that by tomorrow we’re going to be able to see it.

And I don’t think any of that is me being stupid.

61. Michael spews:

@58,59
Another puzzling thing, if Romney has all this support, more support than Obama, how come Obama had $70,726,163 in individual contributions in the last period and Romney had $26,852,478?

62. Serial conservative spews:

@ 61

You are asking me to go back to September reports that cover 8/31 and before.

In 24 hours we’ll have side-by-side October reports that compare what’s happened through 9/30.

Why do I care what happened in August? Do the August poll data matter anymore?

63. Michael spews:

And I don’t think any of that is me being stupid.

Being stupid was you asking me for something that didn’t exist and then getting all cranky with me when I gave you the next best thing and showed you where to get the data.

That was debt acquired to get through the primary season, because monies in hand at the time for them were restricted for use in the general election.

Yep, I’d forgotten about that. But, that’s still a lot of debt to have floating around and having to borrow $15M to get through a primary season when your opponents are whack jobs and a former Obama employee does exactly sound reassuring.

64. Michael spews:

@62

You are asking me to go back to September reports that cover 8/31 and before.

Nope. I’m just saying that it call into question your claims of how much support Romney really has.

65. Serial conservative spews:

@ 63

I thought what I asked was whether anyone had seen the fresh numbers, not that they be provided to me. I certainly didn’t ask for the data that’s been around for a month.

@ 64

I’m just saying that it call into question your claims of how much support Romney really has.

1. Well, Romney’s reported his final September numbers and Obama has yet to do so. Read between the lines. Darryl’s addressed this not so long ago.

2. The first debate was the evening of October 3rd. This was published October 6th:

Romney camp reports $12M in online donations after strong debate performance
Published October 06, 2012
The Wall Street Journal

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/06/romney-camp-reports-12m-in-online-donations-after-strong-debate-performance/#ixzz29n4tH800

I’d say those two items come pretty close to answering your question, Michael. Add on to it the GOP enthusiasm numbers, the poll movement since the first debate, the post-debate poll data that clearly show Romney had the upper hand in the economic issues during the second debate, and the fact that money is flowing to the GOP as we speak, and I’d say Obama will be circling his wagons around an ever-smaller number of states.

66. Puddybud spews:

him/her

Ohhh gender equality, except I pack my pants naturally! Well see with your new 10 day poll average.

BTW I make work trips to Arizona! The personal landscape is much different than that poll.

67. Puddybud spews:

Seems to Puddy the libtards are screaming about polls. Nate Silver at 538 is upset over the Gallup poll. His “Gallup vs. the World” entry is hilarious! The oh no of DUMMOCRAPTIC panic!Twitter commentary is interesting too.

68. Darryl spews:

Person playing Puddybud,

“Seems to Puddy the libtards are screaming about polls.”

Ummm…SERIOUSLY? Is your character saying there are a bunch of wacko-nutters claiming that the pollsters are all conspiring to put one candidate in office?

(Pro. Ject. Ion.)

“Nate Silver at 538 is upset over the Gallup poll. His “Gallup vs. the World” entry is hilarious! The oh no of DUMMOCRAPTIC
panic!”

No Puddy, there is nothing in that article whatsoever that suggests Mr. Silver is “upset” or in a “panic”.

Rather, he presents an objective analysis of the performance of Gallup based on a large historical database of polls.

Dude…your character needs to “up” the reading comprehension!

69. Darryl spews:

Person Playing Puddybud.

“Ohhh gender equality, except I pack my pants naturally! Well see with your new 10 day poll average.”

I recognize that you are a male. I’m just not sure the sex (or gender, for that matter) of Puddybud.

“BTW I make work trips to Arizona! The personal landscape is much different than that poll.”

The poll is a quasi-random sample of people who are asked to and express their political preferences. That is useful evidence.

Your impression of a tiny fraction of the state’s landscape doesn’t really rise to the same level of evidence….

70. MikeBoyScout spews:

Hey Kap’n Kornflake,

I’m sure you’ve seen this, not sure why you did not bring it to the table here. You are very concerned about funding at this point in the race.

Pro-Obama Super PAC Outraises Romney Super PAC, Again

For the second consecutive month, the main pro-Obama super PAC has outraised its Romney-backing counterpart.

As I recall, a major premise of your argument for Slick Willard and the ass backward Republican party being competitive enough to win was all the damn money they were going to raise.
Turns out you were wrong. Again.
Nobody. Could. Have. Predicted.

71. Golfendude spews:

DELUSIONAL NUT CASES…

R/R 2012 LANDSLIDE! BOOK IT!

72. Politically Incorrect - free minds, free markets, free people spews:

@71,

Don’t be so sure. Obama has a very good chance of winning. There are just too many people out there who will vote for their own self interest, and those people are receiving some form of government support each month. They won’t necessarily vote for R/R if they perceive the support will be reduced or eliminated with an R/R administration.