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Archives for August 2012

The Reason for the Season

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 8/31/12, 5:18 pm

Labor Day weekend is here once again. And while we can all enjoy the barbeques, the sales, and Bumbershoot, it’s important to remember what this season is all about.

That’s right it’s LABOR Day. So when co-workers, shop clerks, and bank tellers tell me to “have a good weekend” or a “good long weekend” without mentioning labor, I let them know what’s up. When that well intentioned acquaintance wishes me the wrong words, I have no choice to tell them: “It’s Labor day. Labor. Labor. Don’t you celebrate LABOR DAY?”

You see, there’s a war on Labor Day in this country, and make no mistake about it, we are a laboring country. This country was founded by people who labored, and if it was good enough for them, it’s good enough for the rest of us. And you know, most Americans still labor today. The silent majority shouldn’t take it any longer. We need to boldly proclaim LABOR day.

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Why They Want to Suppress the Elderly Vote

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 8/31/12, 7:57 am

Before the Republican convention, I’d have said that the GOP ID card requirements to vote in various states were mostly going after minorities and the poor. And that the suppression of the elderly that goes along with it is a side effect against a group of people who generally vote for them: Suppress more black votes than elderly votes, and you still get a more Republican electorate.

But after hearing Clint Eastwood’s speech* I think they want to suppress them because the elderly people they’re around have lost it. Now, don’t get me wrong, Clint Eastwood has had a fantastic career as an actor and a director. And I think he deserves the right vote.

But if you’re a Republican, and all of the old people around you are yelling at “Obama” in an empty chair, well, at a certain point, you don’t want them voting either. I see it now. My advice would be to spend time with a wider array of the elderly.

* And for serious, I just listened to it on the radio, so I didn’t realize he was talking to an empty chair. I’m not sure if that makes it worse or better, but at least it fills in some gaps.

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Romney Convention Speech Thread

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 8/30/12, 7:33 pm

7:30: I’m listening to it on NPR, but you can watch it here too.

7:36: He accepts the nomination for president. Phew.

7:37: If you say you’re humble, you aren’t.

7:38: First wrong thing: Janesville is not a small town. He’s making references to Ryan’s speech that I didn’t see. Whatever.

7:40: If you have to say you’re being positive, you’re probably not being positive.

7:41: He says nobody who came here doubted they would do better. Um, remember when your family fled the country because as you said “religious persecution“?

7:43: He’s listing all the problems after Obama got into office, not noting that the economy went to shit before Obama got there.

7:44: He says “I wish President Obama had succeeded” but maybe he should have urged his party to work with the president when they said defeating him was their top priority.

7:45: By the way, wasn’t Clint Eastwood awful? Was he drunk?

7:45: God Bless Neil Armstrong. I agree.

7:46: “When the world needs you to do really big stuff, you need an American.” Diplomacy will be fun under him.

7:48: Parents are more important than government. Um, sure, but we can have both.

7:50: Mitt Romney likes his parents. OK.

7:50: He thinks he made it on his own because he wasn’t in Michigan. Um, no.

7:52: Anne’s “job was a lot harder and more important than mine.” All right. Maybe make a little less money and spend more time having helped with her job.

7:52: God God God God Family Community God. God.

7:55: “Jobs to (Obama) are about government.” What?

7:58: He’s waxing poetic about commerce. Says we should encourage taking risks, but doesn’t say how maybe a safety net would get people more willing to take risks.

8:00: Romney says Obama can’t say you’re better off than when he took office. Um, the economy was in free fall when Obama took office. We are doing better. There’s still a long way to go, but yes, things are better.

8:01: “What America needs are jobs, lots of jobs.” Well, we need good jobs.

8:03: He says the military creates jobs. Those ARE GOVERNMENT JOBS.

8:06: “I have a plan to create 12 Million new jobs.”

– Drill the shit out of everything
– Education
– Make trade work. When nations cheat, there will be consequences. Yet, he doesn’t say how he’s going to do that.
– Cut the deficit. That isn’t a plan (also, it won’t work).
– Champion small businesses. Says he’ll repeal and replace Obama care, but doesn’t say with what.

8:07: We need a president who will respect women. Then by the time I finish typing that sentence, he attacks women’s ability to control their own bodies.

8:08: Now he’s making fun of the fact that Obama thinks global warming is a thing (will help turn back the rise of the oceans). I guess that whole global warming thing is no longer operative.

8:09: He’s lied about the apology tour, so naturally the crowd is chanting USA!

8:11: Now he says we need 23 Million more jobs. But he just said his plan is only half that.

8:12: Is he cribbing Obama’s 2004 convention speech? I mean I know there were a lot of cliches in that, but it really sounds like a poor man’s version of it.

8:13: We’re done.

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Open Thread 8/30

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 8/30/12, 7:57 am

– There was a debate last night between Jay Inslee and Rob McKenna.

– Fuck all of these hurdles to the Burke-Gillman Trail missing link. It might make it harder to get to 0 road fatalities.

– Family values.

– Seattle parks’ computer labs will be open during the rest of the library closure.

– Scab refs will be trouble.

– Park(ing) Day is coming up.

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Poll Analysis: Even more Ryan bump

by Darryl — Wednesday, 8/29/12, 4:00 pm


Obama Romney
96.9% probability of winning 3.1% probability of winning
Mean of 302 electoral votes Mean of 236 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed G.O.P. presidential candidate Mitt Romney edging up to almost a 1% probability of winning an election held now. Romney lagged in expected electoral votes to President Barack Obama by 230 to 308.

Since then, 15 new polls covering 12 states have been released.

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO Keating 21-Aug 22-Aug 500 4.4 48 44 O+4
CT Quinnipiac 22-Aug 26-Aug 1472 2.6 52 45 O+7
CT PPP 22-Aug 23-Aug 881 — 53 40 O+13
FL CNN/TIME 22-Aug 26-Aug 895 3.5 50 46 O+4
IA PPP 23-Aug 26-Aug 1244 2.8 47 45 O+2
MI Mitchell 23-Aug 23-Aug 1277 2.7 46.6 46.7 R+0.1
MO Mason-Dixon 22-Aug 23-Aug 625 4.0 43 50 R+7
MO Rasmussen 22-Aug 22-Aug 500 4.5 47 46 O+1
NV PPP 23-Aug 26-Aug 831 3.4 50 47 O+3
NJ Eagleton-Rutgers 23-Aug 25-Aug 710 3.5 51 37 O+14
NC CNN/Time 22-Aug 26-Aug 766 3.5 47 48 R+1
NC SurveyUSA 18-Aug 23-Aug 540 4.3 43 43 tie
OH Columbus Dispatch 15-Aug 25-Aug 1758 2.1 45 45 tie
PA Philadelphia Inquirer 21-Aug 23-Aug 601 4.0 51 42 O+9
VA Rasmussen 23-Aug 23-Aug 500 4.5 47 47 tie

Obama takes the latest Colorado poll by +4% over Romney, and he leads in four of the five current polls for the state.

Two polls in Connecticut both go to Obama. The Quinnipiac poll has Obama up by a modest +7%. A slightly older PPP poll has Obama up by +13%.

The latest Florida poll has Obama leading Romney by +4%. The current Florida polls go 4 to 2 for Romney, and Romney is given a 97% chance of winning the state right now.

Obama is up by +2% in the new Iowa poll. The candidates split the two current polls, but the poll that has Obama up is the much larger of the two: ObamaRomney29Jul12-29Aug12Iowa

In Michigan, Romney leads Obama by a weak +0.1%. The candidates split the four current polls, but the weight of the evidence has Obama up slightly with a 57% probability of winning an election held now.

The candidates split the two Missouri polls, with Romney up by +7% in one and Obama up by +1% in another. Obama has only led in this one poll out of the 6 current Missouri polls: ObamaRomney29Jul12-29Aug12Missouri

Nevada has Obama up by a slender +3% over Romney, slightly beating the +2% he had in the other current poll: ObamaRomney29Jul12-29Aug12Nevada

Little surprise that New Jersey has Obama up by a double-digit lead (+14%) over Romney.

In North Carolina, Romney has a +1% lead over Obama in one poll and the candidates are tied in another. The weight of evidence in the five current polls has Romney up by the slightest margin and a 56% probability of taking the state in an election held now:
ObamaRomney29Jul12-29Aug12North Carolina

Ohio is a tie at 45% each in the new poll. But Obama has led in three of the current six polls (with two ties), so the weight of evidence gives him an 87% probability of taking the state right now:
ObamaRomney29Jul12-29Aug12Ohio

Another Pennsylvania poll gives Obama a +9% lead over Romney. Obama take all three of the current polls and would be expected to win an election now with a 99% probability.

Virginia is all tied up at 47% in the newest poll. Overall, Obama takes 4 of the six current polls, so he ends up with a 90% probability of winning an election held now.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 96,863 times and Romney wins 3,137 times (including the 449 ties). Obama receives (on average) 302 (-6) to Romney’s 236 (+6) electoral votes. In an election held now, we would expect Obama to win with a 96.9% (-2.3%) probability and Romney with a 3.1% (+2.3%) probability.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

[Read more…]

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Conventional Wisdom

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 8/29/12, 8:00 am

I know, I know. Everyone will tell you nothing of note happens at the conventions. They’re theater and the most newsworthy thing that happened, aside from the weather, is a few supporters of one person yelled things during the vote and someone did something that might be racist.

And so we’re left with the speeches, the videos, and the rest of the theater. But, you know what: the theater is important. The speeches are important. The parties, and especially the presidential candidates, set the tone of the rest of their campaigns at the convention. They lock themselves into policies. They showcase rising stars. They get people paying attention.

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 8/28/12, 3:10 pm

DLBottle

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. Material for tonight’s discussions: The hurricane that is the G.O.P. convention, Rob McKenna’s refusal to release his tax returns, and, perhaps, today’s Arizona, Vermont, Alaska and Oklahoma elections ….

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle’s DL tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter also meets tonight. And on Monday, the Yakima, South Bellevue and Olympia chapters meet.

With 235 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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What is Rob McKenna hiding?

by Darryl — Tuesday, 8/28/12, 1:19 pm

Rob McKenna is refusing to release his tax returns:

Washington gubernatorial candidate Rob McKenna said Tuesday he will not release any of his tax returns, dismissing the matter as a distraction from important policy discussions.

McKenna, the state’s attorney general, said he has disclosed enough information in the personal financial forms that candidates file with the state. He called the tax-return debate – both here and nationally – a “phony issue.”

McKenna, a Republican, said his political rivals are attempting “to change the subject away from the real issues of the state.”

Democratic rival Jay Inslee, a former congressman, released five years of tax returns last week, and his campaign had called on McKenna to do the same.

I’m sure McKenna wants you to believe that he is taking a principled stand in refusing to release his tax returns, but his recalcitrance is problematic for the gubernatorial wannabe.

First, even if the “principled stand” hypothesis is true, standing tall with Mitt Romney isn’t going to endear him to Washingtonians. The state is just not that into Mittens. In other words, if McKenna wants to peddle himself as a “different kind of Republican,” one that is palatable to the voters of our state, he shouldn’t emulate, pretend to be, or come off as, in any way, an entitled one-percenter.

Romney has good reason to hide his tax returns. He’s done the political calculation. Releasing his tax returns would be much more damaging than disclosure. And it really is understandable—the fabulously wealthy have more opportunity to dodge taxes in ways that, if disclosed to the rest of us, would induce a bout of severe vertigo followed by repulsion-induced wrenching.

But McKenna…not so many tax dodging options. So if McKenna is “standing on principle,” he takes all the damage of non-discosure without any of the benefits.

(And he will take damage from this. Washingtonians are big on transparency. Don’t think for a moment that McKenna’s non-disclosure is going to be swept under the rug.)

So, really, if McKenna is merely standing on “principle”, he’s foolishly hurting himself.

On the other hand, maybe Rob isn’t a fool. Maybe he has done the calculation of relative political damage from disclosure versus non-disclosure. And he came down on the side of hiding his tax returns. If so, what is Rob McKenna hiding?

Is McKenna being foolish here? Or does he really have something to hide in his tax returns?

Intelligent voters want to know.

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Open Thread 8/28

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 8/28/12, 8:01 am

– I haven’t finished this piece on Obama and race yet, but so far it’s quite interesting.

– These are my favorite protesters at the RNC so far (may be NSFW).

– I realize the problems are worse in California, but wouldn’t it be nice to have a governor who could rally businesses behind raising taxes?

– Giving away the store.

– I’m not thrilled that super PAC’s are setting the agenda, but that’s a dumb resolution that Koster sponsored.

– Make him seem not stiff or mechanical.

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Taylor Bridge Fire Nearly Out

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 8/27/12, 9:22 pm

A hearty congrats to everyone who worked the fire.

Firefighters have extinguished nearly all of the Taylor Bridge Fire between Cle Elum and Ellensburg, except for a few hotspots, within 40 miles of fire line built around the burn area.

Containment was at 91 percent on Saturday morning, according to a news release issued as command of the firefighting effort was transferred to a smaller, regional incident management team from Southwest Washington. Members of the original incident management team continued to work with the regional team that took command Saturday.

Restrictions were lifted Saturday in areas of Kittitas County previously under level 1 evacuation orders. Hidden Valley Road remains closed at its intersection with Lambert Road, and Lambert Road is closed 1.5 miles east of its intersection with Taylor Road. State Route 10 remains closed at Taylor Bridge for construction.

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Jay’s Got a Friend

by Darryl — Monday, 8/27/12, 2:56 pm

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Open Thread 8/27

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 8/27/12, 8:02 am

– The Crackpot Caucus [h/t]

– When more black men were killed in one year (2009) than all of the US soldiers killed in the Afghanistan and Iraq wars to date, we must give this problem the utmost attention. We must find solutions to curb the violence.

– I’m going to wait until we hear what type of alien invasion we’re talking about.

– How in the hell did Florida voters look at this man’s record and decide to make him their governor? He’s a straight-up crook. He should be considered a felon many times over. And now people are surprised that he acts like a gangster?

– RIP Neil Armstrong.

– An app that shows where bike racks are.

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G.O.P. Convention preview

by Darryl — Sunday, 8/26/12, 10:52 pm

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Bird’s Eye View Contest

by Lee — Sunday, 8/26/12, 12:00 pm

Last week’s contest was won milwhcky, with an assist from Roger Rabbit. It was Sammamish.

This week’s is related to something in the news from August, good luck!

Last week’s contest was #200, so here’s the winner tally from the last 100 contests (the winners from the first 100 were announced here). Everyone with more than 1 win is listed. Contests can have multiple winners, so the total will be over 100:

wes.in.wa – 24
milwhcky – 16
Liberal Scientist – 11
Brian – 5
Siberian Dog – 4
Darryl – 3
Poster Child – 3
waguy – 3
Deathfrogg – 2
Blue John – 2
Geoduck – 2
Coosboy – 2
Budget Wonk – 2
Roger Rabbit – 2
2cents – 2
Luigi Giovanni – 2
uptown – 2
16 people won 1 contest

Thanks for playing!

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HA Bible Study

by Goldy — Sunday, 8/26/12, 7:00 am

Isaiah 28:2
Only the Lord is strong
and powerful!
His mighty hand
will strike them down
with the force of a hailstorm
or a mighty whirlwind
or an overwhelming flood.

Discuss.

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Recent HA Brilliance…

  • Wednesday Open Thread Wednesday, 5/7/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 5/6/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 5/5/25
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Friday, 5/2/25
  • Friday Open Thread Friday, 5/2/25
  • Today’s Open Thread (Or Yesterday’s, or Last Year’s, depending On When You’re Reading This… You Know How Time Works) Wednesday, 4/30/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 4/29/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 4/28/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 4/28/25
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Saturday, 4/26/25

Tweets from @GoldyHA

I no longer use Twitter because, you know, Elon is a fascist. But I do post occasionally to BlueSky @goldyha.bsky.social

From the Cesspool…

  • Roger Rabbit on Wednesday Open Thread
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