HorsesAss.Org

Here is the list of King County parks and trails that are reopening today. If you’re using one be cool. Allow social distancing to work. Still wear a mask. Wash your hands.

And if you’re going out or not, wash your hands right now.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.01% probability of winning
Mean of 359 electoral votes	Mean of 179 electoral votes

It’s been some years since you’ve seen one of these election analyses here at HA. Given that Biden and Trump will almost certainly be the nominees of their parties, and given that there are more than 300 state head-to-head polls released, it is time to start these up again.

These analyses use state head-to-head polls and mimic the electoral college process as well as following the rules of each state on how electors are awarded in the state. Most states (and D.C.) use the rule “winner takes all,” but Maine and Nebraska allocates two electors to the state victor and the rest go by the vote of each congressional district.

There are a few states that have no polling yet. These are D.C. (not a state, but it gets three electors anyway), Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Louisiana, Nebraska, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming. Clearly, these are not swing states. I’ve simply averaged the result from the past 4 elections and always award electors from the state that way. The results are exactly what you would expect–Illinois goes to Biden, South Dakota goes to Trump, etc. Interestingly, Nebraska’s 2nd CD just barely went for Obama in 2008, but NE-2 will be assigned to Trump in these analyses until we get polling that allows the state to be rolled into the simulations.

New polls come out almost daily, so I’ll post new analyses when I have time to collect polls, conduct the analyses, and post results.

So, how do these analyses work? I am using a statistical method called Monte Carlo analysis to, essentially, conduct mock elections in each state. The outcome of each state election is a probabilistic outcome that reflects the number of people polled recently in the state and the fraction of polled individuals saying they would vote for each candidate. Currently, I consider the last two months of polling as “current”, but that window will shrink as the pace of polling picks up. I usually do 100,000 mock elections to simulate what would happen if the election was held now. The FAQ has the details, although I need to update the FAQ for this election cycle.

Note that I do not claim these analyses predict the election outcome. Rather they reflect what we would expect for an election held now. It serves as something like the score in a basketball game. The half-time score only tells you who is leading. A lopsided score may give you an inkling of who will win, but it is just the half-time score. Watching a basketball game is far more interesting when you are allowed to know the score. Likewise, knowing the “score” in an election contest is much more interesting. In developing these analyses, I have tried to be scrupulously unbiased. If all the polls were to be flipped, Trump’s results would look like Biden’s, and Biden’s Trump’s.

Okay, so what would the outcome be if the election was held today? After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins every simulated election. Biden received (on average) 359 electoral votes to Trump’s 179 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.01% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 06-May-2019 to 06-May-2020, and including polls from the preceding two months. When the purple line is above the dashed line, it means Biden is expected to win. The red and green lines provide “confidence intervals”. For example, at each time point, there was a 95% chance that any simulated election fell between the green lines. If the lower green line dips down to touch the dashed line, it means Trump would have a 2.5% chance of winning.

Here is a plot showing the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] that resulted from the 100,000 simulated elections for the analysis done today (essentially, a vertical slice from the previous graph at today’s date):

[There is much more, including state-by-state analyses below the fold….]

[Read more…]

I don’t get the people who are rushing to reopen. The economy is awful and nobody is happy staying in. But suing to infect more of your constituents is just garbage. Like more death is good for the economy, somehow. Like if your employees all get sick and some die it’s a goo day at work. Like going to a restaurant or a bowling alley now would even be reasonable. Ugh.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now.

92 people in Washington dead of COVID-19 stinks. And yet it marks our first week down to double digits. Social distancing and hand washing and mask wearing have made a difference. It’s tougher to quantify how many people are still around because we did those things. But they are because you did.

So keep it up. Go wash your hands right now.

Trevor: Sen. Tammy Duckworth on supporting first responders

Lauren Mayer: We’d like to thank you, Mitch McConnell.

Bill Maher: Eric Holder on the 2020 elections

Samantha Bee: Why we need to save the Postal Service.

Vox: How voting by mail could save the US election.

ТрампPlague:

• SNL: Dr. Anthony Fauci cold open
• Trevor: The world sees signs of light at the end of the corona tunnel
• Stephen: Sen. Schumer, “I would call Dr. Birx & Dr. Fauci before Congress, without Трамп hovering over them
• Stephen: Sen. Schumer, “No PR act” would prevent Трамп from adding his name to future stimulus checks
• Mark Fiore: Dr. Dotard J. Трамп, MD
• Bill Maher: Different shit, same day
• John Di Domenico: Трамп’s response to fake news disinfectant injection
• The Late Show: Surfin’ MIA
• J-L Cauvin: No one works harder than Трамп!!
• Bruce W. Nelson: Raleigh’s at the rally:

• Jimmy Kimmel: What Трамп was doing during COVID-19 warnings
• The Daily Show: Remember when Трамп said coronavirus would disappear in April?
• NY Times: Social distancing is hard. This astronaut has some advice.
• Bruce W. Nelson: Hey, you with the sexy mask!
• Seth Meyers: Трамп ignored coronavirus warnings & Pence refused to wear a mask
• SNL: Stuck in the house
• Stephen: You’re doing amazing, Mr. President. See, sarcasm does work!
• Lars von Retriever: Трамп’s Thunderstruck
• Trevor: Coronavirus ravages the food supply chain
• Randy Rainbow: A spoonful of Clorox:

• The Late Show: Trump’s idea to inject disinfectant inspires new cleaning products
• Stephen: Jared Kushner declares Трамп’s coronavirus decision-making “a great success story”
• Trevor: Neighboring in the time of coronavirus
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп NOT the dope of the day!
• SNL: Message from MI Gov. Whitmer
• Bill Maher: Immunity booster
• The Daily Show: BIG NEWS—Трамп reveals ingenious 4-step plan to wipe out coronavirus
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard goes platinum!
• Seth Meyers: Трамп sinks in polls, claims disinfectant comments were sarcastic
• Stephen: Трамп is watching, and tweeting about, “This stupid show”
• John Di Domenico: Trump BLASTS everyone over the corona virus “King Covid 45”:

• Lauren Mayer: I can’t remember what day it ss
• Vox: How coronavirus charts can mislead us
• Robert Reich: From Ukraine to coronavirus—Trump’s abuse of power continues, featuring Robert Reich
• Mother Jones: Trump’s 100 days of deadly coronavirus denial
• Now This: Bill Gates explains why U.S. COVID-19 testing is “bogus”
• Trevor: Immunity in Sweden & Трамп ignored warnings
• Stephen: Трамп doesn’t talk like a guy who knows what he’s talking about
• J-L Cauvin: Trump Tuesdays—Episode 1
• Seth Meyers: Kushner and Трамп call coronavirus response “success story” and “great job”
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s disinfectant debacle
• Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп’s COVID cures:

• Trevor: The U.S. hits one million cases of coronavirus
• Stephen: Sen. Amy Klobuchar & Mayor Pete Buttigieg comment On Трамп’s move to keep meat plants open
• Wired: Dr. Seema Yasmin on the 5 biggest covid-19 mistakes to avoid as we try to flatten the curve
• SNL Weekend Update: Трамп suggests injecting disinfectant
• Trevor: Трамп’s bleach suggestion—sarcasm?
• Seth Meyers: White House schedules, cancels and then reschedules coronavirus press briefing
• The Daily Show: Trump’s best words–coronavirus briefing edition
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard wishes the First Third Lady a happy birthday
• Stephen: Burger enthusiast The Dotard Трамп orders America’s meat plants to stay open
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп blames & complains and celebrities after quarantine

Stephen: How do Democrats win in the midwest? Sen. Amy Klobuchar & Mayor Pete Buttigieg weigh in.

Bill Maher: 24 things you don’t know about Joe Biden.

Trevor: PPP loans sapped by big businesses.

Samantha Bee: Trying to keep up with Kamala Harris

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Can’t wait to eat food processed by COVID-19 positive employees. Mmmm.

Obviously the safety of the workers is the most important thing. 56 is a lot of cases and if work isn’t safe for them it shouldn’t happen.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

I forgot who, but someone said that shopping online at Pike Place Market was easy. It was not. At least for me. Each store had its own website or you had to call. Some places you still had to go in to. Still, it was good to have much of it done ahead of time.

Well it finally happened: My hair is ridiculous. Can’t part it. Can’t slick it back. Just a big lump on my head. Swooping. I have had it long before, but this intermediate stuff is probably going to last a while. So I am sorry coworkers, friends and family. You’re stuck looking at this on Zoom for a while.

Anyway, everyone wash your hands right now.

Late Night Storytelling: The first annual Democratic Candidate Pageant.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo has some numbers to share with #MoscowMitch.

Bill Maher chats with Rep. Nancy Pelosi.

Jonathan Mann: Hello, my name is David Brooks.

SNL: Earth Day sketches.

Buzzfeed: Eight things you can do about climate change now.

ТрампPlague:

• The Late Show: Трамп’s flipbook cartoon pig goes off the deep end
• Jimmy Kimmel: Another quarantine monologue
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard is concerned for Kim Jong Un’s health
• The Daily Show: Dot Трамп, The Science-ish Guy on disinfectant injections
• Jimmy Fallon: Dr. Jane Goodall on how disrespect for nature fueled the coronavirus pandemic
• Stephen: Трамп, you’re going to have to do the unthinkable—YOUR JOB!
• Rachel Maddow: Drug pusher Трамп and other coronavirus news
• Trevor: Трамп must think chaos is an essential service
• Chris Hayes: Трамп Administration forces out top vaccine doctor amid pandemic
• Vox: What face masks actually do against coronavirus
• The Daily Show: Remembering Трамп’s somber tone
• Stephen: Las Vegas Mayor rolls the dice on reopening, but Anderson Cooper is having none of it
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard advises using diet Fresca to fight covid
• The Трампs celebrate Earth Day! #BeBuried
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s ratings, Kim Jong Un’s health & Dr. Zaius on COVID-19
• The Late Show: Anderson Cooper struggles with Las Vegas Mayor’s logic
• Roy Zimmerman: The Liar Tweets Tonight:

• Samantha Bee: Why we need to shut down the idea of reopening America
• Stephen: Bill Gates—Global innovation is the key to achieving a return to normal
• Stephen: Bill Gates—We could see early results from coronavirus vaccine trials this summer
• Trevor: Governors ease restrictions & Трамп shuts out immigrants
• The Bulwark: February 7 changed everything….
• The late Show: The grim reaper endorses Lt. Governor Dan Patrick
• James Corden: Vice President Joe Biden questions Трамп’s COVID response
• Robert Reich: Coronavirus and the height of corporate welfare
• Stephen: Трамп indulges his penchant for chanting mobs by tweeting encouragement to lockdown protesters
• John Oliver: Coronavirus V
• The Daily Show: This is what it’s about
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп is the ventilator king
• You can see the moment when Dr. Birx loses her soul at a Трамп “briefing”
• The Late Show: Meet the former dog breeder in charge of coronavirus response at HHS
• Mark Fiore: Liberty alert!
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп & Vegas mayor compete for who’s crazier
• The science of quarantine hair roots
• Stephen: Трамп’s immigration bombshell came, as always, via tweet
• Bruce W. Nelson: STFU (A song of sage advice)
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп never heard of hydroxychloroquine
• Trevor: Gov. Andrew Cuomo on meeting Трамп and reopening New York
• John Di Domenico: Трамп Money, Sarah Hester Ross wants her cash now!
• The Daily Show: The Daily Show FAUXsplains coronavirus
• Gov. Cuomo to anti-lockdown protesters: “What’s worse than death?”
• Stephen: Mitch McConnell’s “Screw the states” plan riles lawmakers from both parties
• Francesca Fiorentini: How COVID-19 deniers are ALSO a virus:

• Chris Hayes: Air pollution drops around the world amid coronavirus lockdowns
• The Late Show: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ mask fail
• Sky News: Excess deaths suggest a higher mortality rate from coronavirus than official figures
• Jordan Klepper beefs up to brave the pandemic
• Mother Jones: Obama’s 2010 oil spill response vs. Трамп’s 2020 coronavirus response
• Samantha Bee: Our hospital workers need PPE…STAT!
• Reflect: Трамп gets caught lying about encouraging bleach injections
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп encourages stay at home protests
• Stephen and Trevor: Трамп’s response to coronavirus is exposing his lack of leadership
• The Daily Show: Dotard Трамп the science-ish guy explains hydroxychloroquine
• J-L Cauvin gets ripped by Трамп
• The Late Show: Blowing it out of proportion

Robert Reich: The solutions to the climate crisis no one is talking about.

Bill Maher: New Rule—America’s wet markets.

@Winlar says, “Fuck Twitter”.

James Corden: Vice President Joe Biden is finalizing his 2020 run

Roll Call: A masked edition of Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

I have not been exercising nearly enough in the stay at home times. So I tried going for a walk in the morning. It was fine. Fewer people are out at 7:00 and I hopped right in the shower after the walk was over. Um, but I forgot to do this post until a couple minutes before work started. So here’s a lunch break post instead of a morning one.

Please wash your hands right now.

I am glad to see that Governor Inslee has put forward a path to reopening the state and that it is very gradual. Until there’s a vaccine or much more widespread testing, we’re not going to be able to do a lot of things. I am not sure how much I would want to do elective surgery right now, but I guess if people are taking precautions it’s probably fine? Maybe if you’re in pain or there are down the road consequences it changes the equation.

In any case wash your hands right now.

Were you at the let us get sick rally? If so, you might just get sick. I am a bit worried that even mentioning these jerks will give them oxygen. But still. If you can’t social distance and wear a mask at the I am ready to go out rally, imagine how horrible it will be when the cameras are off. These fuckers aren’t ready for an evening stroll.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

SNL Weekend Update: Bernie Sanders drops out.

Stephen: Barack Obama endorses his former VP, lays out the ways Joe Biden outshines The Dotard.

Seth Meyers: Jane Fonda declares the age of fossil fuel is over.

Tooning Out: Former DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe on the art of begging donors over Zoom

SNL: RBG Workout.

Obama SLAMS Трамп & McConnell in epic call to action.

The Late Show: New species fills President Obama’s pauses.

Now This: The climate crisis is destroying this tribe’s way of life.

ТрампPlague:

• The Late Show: Трамп’s female reporter detector reveals mommy issues
• Bruce W. Nelson: “Fauci”, a parody of the 1925 song, “Dinah” by Harry Akst
• Stephen: Dr. Jon LaPook answers your questions about CoViD-19
• Seth Meyers: Chris Hayes shares the moment he realized how badly coronavirus would affect the United States
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп vs Fauci & Easter at home
• Bruce W. Nelson: I’m just checkin’ in with you
• Now This: Spread of COVID-19 in the U.S. vs. the world
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп mourns Brian Dennehy
• Samantha Bee: This week in “things that shouldn’t surprise us”—COVID-19 is extremely racist
• Bill Maher: Panic porn
• The Daily Show: The Dotard makes a big breakthrough on testing
• Bruce W. Nelson: I’m number one on Facebook
• Jonathan Mann: Total Authority, No Responsibility:

• Seth Meyers: John Oliver appreciates Dr. Fauci’s discipline while working with Трамп
• The Daily Show: The Dotard blames everyone but himself for the coronavirus epidemic in the U.S.A.
• Lars von Retriever: MetalТрамп—Epidemic
• Bruce W. Nelson: A song about Mike Pence’s soul
• Trevor: What are the craziest coronavirus conspiracy theories?
• Stephen: Трамп’s mishandling of the CoViD-19 crisis is confirmed by Dr. Fauci
• Mark Fiore: A very unstable coronavirus briefing
• Jimmy Kimmel: Yet another quarantine monologue
• The Late Show: Трамп’s name is on the checks
• Wired: Dr. Seema Yasmin on covid-19 immunity compared to 6 other diseases (common cold, HIV, SARS, and more)
• Bruce W. Nelson: You’re no king! (But you’re sure a drama queen)
• Seth Meyers: Late Night White House Briefing
• John Oliver: Coronavirus IV
• Trevor: Трамп attacks the WHO & Kellyanne can’t count to COVID-19
• Seth Meyers: Трамп blames WHO and rushes to “open up America again”
• Stephen: While Трамп plays the blame game, Governors will set the pace on reopening the states
• Bruce W. Nelson: If The Dotard Трамп could sing
• Jimmy Kimmel: Obama endorses biden & Трамп endorses himself
• The Late Show: Germophobic wrestler calls out Florida Governor
• Seth Meyers: John Oliver shares how panicked he feels about coronavirus
• Samantha Bee: Michael Lewis explains why we should have seen the pandemic coming
• Trevor: Is Fauci the sexiest man alive?
• The Daily Show: The missing February section of Трамп’s propaganda video:

• The Late Show: Трамп’s brain is not a metrics guy
• Seth Meyers: Трамп looks to “reopen” the economy after NYT coronavirus bombshell
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп vs The Rock—Is WWE an essential business?
• Bruce W. Nelson: Hail To the Chief, a modern parody
• Stephen: Give The Dotard a radio show and maybe he’ll stop holding these marathon coronavirus briefings
• Now This: Трамп draws criticism for cutting funds to WHO
• Jimmy Kimmel: George Stephanopoulos & Ali Wentworth on having COVID-19
• WaPo: How Трамп and the World Health Organization ended up on a collision course
• Bill Maher: Bill’s home box office
• The Late Show: President Трамп reveals his internal decision-making metrics
• Seth Meyers: Трамп repeats coronavirus failures in push to “reopen” economy
• Bruce W. Nelson: Nice try!:

• John Di Domenico: Trump says FUCovid!
• Vice News: Kamala Harris—Трамп has abandoned his role as President
• The Daily Show: Human sacrifice, a Fox News special
• Now This: How Dr. Anthony Fauci became America’s doctor
• Stephen: Трамп can lie about his coronavirus record, but people remember his early inaction on the threat
• SNL Weekend Update: Трамп gives coronavirus update
• Robert Reich: Трамп’s failed coronavirus response
• Jimmy Kimmel: Another quarantine monologue
• Seth Meyers: Chris Hayes thinks Трамп’s coronavirus press briefings are dangerous
• Roll Call: Could Трамп force Congress to adjourn to allow for recess appointments?
• Bruce W. Nelson: A Poem for The Dotard Трамп, by Mangy Fetlocks

Tooning Out: Donny Deutsch gives Biden’s campaign a sexy rebrand

Samantha Bee: The Elizabeth Warren emergency reassurance zoom

SNL: Bernie Sanders address the nation.

Taina Asili: La Alegría [The Physical Distancing Remix].

Vice News: The law banning Congressional insider trading isn’t enough to stop it

Seth Meyers: Chris Hayes lays out the worst-case scenario for the 2020 election

Conan interviews Joe Biden’s campaign manager.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Someone in my building got the Coronavirus. My super put a note under the door that all of the common areas would be deep cleaned yesterday.* So I guess this is the best time to do laundry and check the mail, even though they aren’t necessary for a bit?

And yet, I am stay putting. I also found some green tea in an unexpected place, so now I have a source of caffeine that doesn’t require cutting with milk. So I guess I can hold up for a bit longer without leaving the building.

[Read more…]

My parents’ friend made a bunch of masks and they sent some on to me. So, next time I go out, I will have minimal protection. And maybe will help other people not get whatever I might have. Still, not going out is probably the best.

And washing your hands. So go wash your hands right now.