HorsesAss.Org

Yeah sure, I’m depressed over yesterday’s election, but when I sat down to write a thorough race-by-race analysis and looked for a clear message in last night’s results, two things immediately jumped out at me: A) a thorough race-by-race analysis would take me days to write; and B) there is no clear message in last night’s results. So I think I’ll discard with A), opting instead for a series of individual posts analyzing individual races and issues. As for B), I suppose that’s the silver lining to the dark clouds filling my head today, for while yesterday’s election certainly sucked — and sucked hard — I see nothing to suggest any long term good news for the folks on the other side.

In purely partisan terms, yesterday’s election says very little. Republicans won the only truly contested partisan race in King County, but they did so on a bullshit theme of non-partisanship, so while they certainly keep the tactical advantage of holding the PAO, it’s kinda hard to argue that this is in anyway an embrace of Republican values. (As for my friend Jim Nobles… how does it feel to draw a substantially smaller percentage of the vote than Richard Pope?) Meanwhile, across the county line to the north, Democrats romped in high profile Snohomish County council races, while Democrat John Lovick appears to be squeaking by in the nominally non-partisan sheriff’s contest.

Across the region Republicans continue to hold their own in so-called “non-partisan” races, though that’s always difficult to analyze when candidates refuse to cop to their party allegiance and our local media plays a complicit role in perpetrating the charade. Still, progressive candidates appear to be making gains in both Whatcom County and Tacoma, while Gael Tarleton’s win means control of the Seattle Port Commission now hinges on the outcome of the nail-biter between incumbent reformer Alec Fisken and pro-business lackey Bill Bryant. We’ll see.

Looking to the ballot measures for trends is equally fruitless. Prop 1 infamously split the progressive community, so there’s no clear message from voters there, other than the usual “we want more, but we don’t want to pay for it” crap, while I-960’s public policy disaster is emblematic of the same muddled thinking. R-67 was simply a battle between good and evil, and the failure of Simple Majority… well… um… I’m just stumped.

Of course, all this took place within a national context, and there Democrats have reason to be optimistic. Dems lost the governor’s mansion in the southern state of Louisiana, but picked up one in a bloodbath in the border state of Kentucky. Dems also picked up Senate majorities in Virginia and Mississippi, while expanding legislative majorities in Maine, New Jersey and New York. As for Ohio, that continues to be a disaster in the making for Republicans, where Dems now hold the mayor’s office in the once red state’s ten largest cities. Ouch.

So what does this all say about our local prospects for 2008? Not all that much. But if you’re a “no news is good news” kinda person, then I suppose that might take a bit of the sting out yesterday’s very disappointing election.

UPDATE:
Of course, I didn’t even mention turnout. Turnout sucked. Yet another reason not to read too much into these results. Apparently, Republicans turned out a bit better than Dems, but I’m told the real fall off was with independents… who tend to vote with the Dems on many issues.

I’m traveling and unable to divine the full gestalt of Tuesday’s vote, but from where I sit it sure appears that the electorate spoke with a much better vocabulary than the eighth-grade level usually assigned it. (I recognize I’m in the minority here but that’s the great thing about this blog, people can disagree. At least, that’s what I’m told. If the Cow of Political Correctness falls off a cliff onto my van, HA readers will know the reason why.)

Back to those astute voters. On Prop 1, they seemed to get that building more highways simply adds more traffic. They knew a Trojan Horse when they saw one — a blank check to the road lobby in the guise of a jolly green transit giant. My feeling is the region is ready for transit, yearns for transit, will vote for transit — but wants to proceed project by project, spur by spur, to keep the process on task and costs accountable. On R-67, who would’ve thunk? With all those ad dollars being spent on how the insurance industry is our friend! I wonder how many voters thought, each time they got hit with one of those commercials, “Gee, if only that money could go toward lowering my health insurance rates!” Or even — d’ya think? — providing coverage their policies say they’re providing.

David Della tried to smear Tim Burgess, but voters ultimately recognized Della as the feckless incumbent without a cause he really was. I’ve sat through entire Council committee meetings supposedly chaired by Della where he barely asked a question, and Jan Drago had to step in and run the thing. Our own little George Bush, an accidental officeholder with no political acumen or even an identifiable constituency, has been blessedly sent back to the private sector. Won’t we all be intrigued to see what it can do with him now.

As for poor Venus, can we please clarify why she lost so miserably? It was not because she was charged with drunk driving. It was how she handled the process and aftermath of being charged with drunk driving. When she said she was not impaired, what stuck in people’s minds was the word “impaired.” As further evidence of her ability to comport herself under pressure, she told reporters after results rolled in, “I am not talking to you tonight.”

Admittedly, my theory of an Enlightened Elector kind of falls apart with the school levy and Eyman measures. Maybe this crowd can see through hype and hypocrisy, but isn’t too good at percentages. Sherman should have won, and Jane Hague should not have been able to beat a garden gnome (maybe her secret was not saying the word “impaired”). Still, what I’m taking from this election is that not all campaigns are about big bucks. It used to be that dollars could deliver at the polls no matter what was right. This time around, people were talking, turning a lot of those paid political announcements into expensive white noise.

Go ahead, all you trolls, get it out of your system. It was an utterly crappy night for folks like me, and while I wouldn’t say any individual race was a surprise in itself, the fact that they nearly all went the wrong way (from my perspective) was a huge disappointment. Off the top of my head I think I only voted for three winners yesterday: the two Port Commission races and R-67. (And Alec Fisken’s victory isn’t entirely in the bag yet.)

A more thorough analysis later.

So much for the euphoria of last year, when everything went well.

First, the numbers, as of 4:30 AM, skipping uncontested races. Then, some observations. (And I’m sure Goldy will also chime in later this morning.)

I-960: Yes, 476511 (52.4%); No, 432811 (47.6%)
Referendum 67: Approved, 520667 (56.9%); Rejected, 393924 (43.1%)
Substitute Senate Joint Resolution 8206: Approved, 603168 (68.0%); Rejected, 283238 (32.0%)
Senate Joint Resolution 8212: Approved, 532253 (60.1%); Rejected, 352683 (39.9%)
Engrossed House Joint Resolution 4204: Rejected, 472938 (51.9%); Approved, 438815 (48.1%)
Substitute House Joint Resolution 4215: Approved, 464518 (53.0%); Rejected, 411785 (47.0%)
RTID, Proposition One: No, 66549 (55.1%); Yes, 54086 (44.9%)
RTA (Sound Transit), Proposition One: No, 66450 (55.1%); Yes, 54058 (44.9%)
King County Initiative 25: Yes, 81012 (60.4%); No, 53031 (39.6%)
King County Proposition One (Medic One): Approved, 113201 (80.6%); Rejected, 27270 (19.4%)
Prosecuting Attorney: Dan Satterburg (R), 72857 (54.2%); Bill Sherman (D), 61234 (45.6%)
Assessor: Scott Noble (D), 91673 (69.4%); Jim Nobles (R), 40263 (30.5%)
County Council, District 6: Jane Hague (R), 9071 (57.2%); Richard Pope (D), 6395 (40.3%)
County Council, District 8: Dow Constantine (D), 10668 (74.8%); John Potter (R), 3562 (25.0%)
Port of Seattle, Position 2: Gael Tarleton, 61419 (51.3%); Bob Edwards, 57312 (48.1%)
Port of Seattle, Position 5: Alec Fisken, 59502 (50.8%); Bill Bryant, 57194 (48.8%)
Seattle City Council #1: Jean Godden, 29420 (71.8%); Joe Szwaja, 11396 (27.8%)
Seattle City Council #:3 Bruce Harrell, 24845 (60.8%); Venus Velazquez, 15883 (38.9%)
Seattle City Council #7: Tim Burgess, 24311 (61.3%); David Della, 15164 (38.3%)
Seattle City Council #9: Sally Clark, 28814 (74.4%); Judy Fenton, 9758 (25.2%)
Seattle School Board, District #1: Sally Soriano, 25966 (38.3%); Peter Maier, 41593 (61.4%)
Seattle School Board, District #2: Sherry Carr, 37402 (58.2%); Darlene Flynn, 26661 (41.5%)
Seattle School Board, District #3: Harium Martin-Morris, 45366 (72.2%); David Blomstrom, 17082 (27.2%)
Seattle School Board, District #6: Steve Sundquist, 39519 (60.5%); Mari Ramirez, 25612 (39.2%)
City of Seattle Charter Amendment 17: Yes, 31853 (73.9%); No, 11262 (26.1%)
City of Seattle Charter Amendment 18: Yes, 31679 (74.1%); No, 11076 (25.9%)

Thoughts: Ugh. The RTID/Sound Transit Prop. One goes down, putting our region back to square one for transportation planning, with no inkling as to whether voters said “no” because they don’t like roads, don’t like light rail, didn’t like these particular road projects or the routing for light rail, didn’t like the price tag, didn’t like the regressive tax, or didn’t like the legislature tying the fate of two separate measures together. Or any combination of the above.

Eyman wins; repealing our antiquated supermajority for school levies goes down; we’ll get an elected Elections Director on King County’s ballot next year. At least voters (a majority, anyway) weren’t fooled by the insurance industry’s millions, and R.-67 passed.

However, the WSRP’s (probably illegally earmarked) last-minute infusion of cash stole the Prosecuting Attorney’s election for Ken Satterburg over Bill Sherman. And the last-minute infusion of self-inflicted stupidity doomed the Steinbrueck-anointed Venus Velazquez and incumbent David Della, giving us two more regressive new voices on city council instead. (And note that over two percent – a very high number – opted for write-ins in the Hague/Pope race.) We’re stuck with Jean Godden for four more years, too. Oh, and the downtown establishment/Seattle Times campaign to vilify the school board paid off handsomely: “they” have “their” board back, with two incumbents being bounced handily and the progressive (Maria Ramirez) losing out in the only other truly contested race.

Eccch.

In other news:

Pakistan is going to hell in a handbasket as Bush watches helplessly, having backed yet another unpopular dictator;

Republicans joined a House vote to override President Bush’s veto of a water spending bill, handing Bush his first veto-proof majority. On the flip side, two Democrats joined all Republicans on the Senate Judiciary Committee to approve Michael Mukasey’s nomination as Attorney General; he’s expected to sail through the full Senate shortly.

And finally at the national level, the House spent a good deal of time yesterday debating Rep. Dennis Kucinich’s bill to impeach Vice President Dick Cheney. Improbably, a move to table the measure, backed by the Democratic leadership, failed when Republicans started voting to debate the measure — calculating, as did the Dem leadership, that such debate would serve to embarrass the Democrats. (Or maybe not. After all, several polls have suggested that a majority of Americans favor impeaching Cheney.) In any event, Steny Hoyer did the next best thing by referring the measure back to the House Judiciary Committee, where John Conyers Jr. has already sat on it for seven months.

And over at the Seattle Times, once you work your way past the election coverage, there’s this classic lede from an AP story:

A Chelan County fire chief says a couple were lucky they weren’t killed by a cow that fell off a cliff and smashed their minivan.

I guess someone should mention them as of 10:45. A better round-up to come tomorrow, I think:

* Well Roads and Transit failed, so maybe we can address public transit in 2009 if we’re very lucky. In the mean time, busses. Yippie.

* In Seattle city council, it’s everybody you expected, and Burgess in the only really contested race. 159 write-ins. Could they all be Heidi Wills?

* Tim Eyman is a horses’ ass who just passed an unconstitutional ballot measure, presumably to tie up the Democratic legislature next year before being tossed.

* In suburbia, having married Goldy seems not to help your political career, but it’s too close to call, I think. Being my buddy is better luck for Maren Norton for Shoreline Schools.

* Being a blogger (and a write in candidate) didn’t help Jimmy at all for Richland City Council. Still 10% for a write-in ain’t bad.

* In Oregon, Measure 49 to do something to Measure 37 that I don’t really care about because I’m not from a state that passed that stupid initiative in the first damn place looks like it’s failing (.pdf) but I am having a hell of a time navigating their elections web page.

Dem landslide in Kentucky:

Beshear & Mongiardo D 619,654 58.7% percent of the vote
Fletcher & Rudolph R 435,857 41.3% percent of the vote

The ethically challenged Gov. Ernie Fletcher gets tossed by a big margin. Democrats also win/retain AG, Treasurer, Auditor.

Kos says:

Also, State Auditor Crit Luallen is cruising to reelection with around 62% of the vote. All eyes will be on her soon to see if she jumps in the KY-Sen race against Mitch McConnell.

The Kentucky GOP had fought hard to dump Fletcher in favor of a former Rep. Anne Northup (who was canned in ’06). Now, what was previously unthinkable is now plausible: Minority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell will face a top-shelf Democrat in ’08, and the Kentucky Dems will be fired up.

And in Virginia, Dems are poised to take the state senate.

Mississippi: GOP Gov. Barbour wins big. Unlike everyone else, Barbour held it together during Katrina. Benefit of low expectations to be sure, the race was never close.

That’s it for now. SF Mayor Gavin Newsom will likely win, as will Houston Mayor Bill White. I like both of them, especially Bill White. He’s going places. He’ll make a great Secretary of Commerce for the next Democratic president.

I won’t update for the rest of the night, so that’s it. Stay safe and don’t drive drunk.

The Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight (and every Tuesday), 8PM at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E.

Of course, tonight is election night, so expect a greater flow of folks in and out of DL this evening. I’ll be arriving a little late, and leaving a little early, party hopping, depending on results, and how happy or depressed I am.

I’m really at a loss to predict how things will turn out. Money has played a huge role in a number races which would have easily been one-sided without the huge influx of cash on the other side (some of it illegal.) R-67 shouldn’t even be close, but $12 million bucks buys you an awful lot of votes, and of course Bill Sherman should have had a comfortable win in this 2-to-1 Democratic district if not for the $300,000 in unopposed TV selling Satterberg as the non-partisan he’s not. And then there’s Prop 1, where months of lying ads have convinced untold voters that the Roads and Transit package has a $157 billion price tag. We’ll see.

Either way, I don’t expect to live blog tonight unless something extraordinary happens (and I have access to a computer,) but I’ll post a full wrap-up in the morning.

Not in Seattle? Liberals will also be drinking tonight in the Tri-Cities. A full listing of Washington’s thirteen Drinking Liberally chapters is available here.

… And worse than Nixon:

Meanwhile, Bush reached an unwelcome record. By 64%-31%, Americans disapprove of the job he is doing. For the first time in the history of the Gallup Poll, 50% say they “strongly disapprove” of the president. Richard Nixon had reached the previous high, 48%, just before an impeachment inquiry was launched in 1974.

The only politician with lower approval ratings than Bush is Vice President Dick Cheney, hovering somewhere near absolute zero, which I suppose might explain why 165 House Republicans just voted in favor of impeaching Cheney. Um… no it doesn’t. They were just playing a stupid political game. Republicans apparently want 2008 to be about impeachment, because they think it will somehow help their cause, whereas Democrats are too pussified to challenge their logic. Thus, despite the fact that Cheney most certainly deserves to be impeached (and probably tried for war crimes,) it’ll never happen. That’s what really makes this administration’s crimes “worse than Watergate”… we allow them to go unpunished.

BONUS:
Enjoy this peek at one of the Republicans who wants to succeed Bush:

The Stranger’s ECB hates Prop 1. ECB’s favorite mayor, Austin’s Will Wynn, speaks out in support of it.

I was the 12th voter this morning at St. Andrew’s Church in North Seattle. As I put my ballot into the machine, it registered it, but there was a flashing ***POWER FAIL*** message on the display. Remembering rudimentary Murphy’s Law, I followed the extenstion cord back behind the voting tables until I saw the other end of the cord lying on the floor. A woman asked me, “Can I help you?” I replied, “You might want to plug that in.” She plugged it in and then the main dude came over and patted the machine a few times. This entire episode did not make me regret voting against I-25 in any way.

It’s Election Day today, though you wouldn’t know it by reading the front page of the Seattle Times, which devotes its biggest chunk of column-inch real estate to telling us that 784 people are waiting for a copy of Khaled Hosseini’s “A Thousand Splendid Suns” at the Seattle Public Library. (That the library has long waitlists for popular books, would only come as news to folks who don’t use it.)

Of course, library books are paid for with taxes, you know, those things the Times constantly rails against, but which voters here seem to constantly pass because they like things like library books… taxes that are more likely to pass in high turnout elections. Which may explain why the Times is so hush-hush about Election Day (shhh… don’t let the voters know,) whereas the P-I fills two-thirds of its front page with an article on controversial Prop 1. Hmm… trains, cars, bikes and buses… you mean all those commuters depend on public investment? Who knew?

Yup, even low-impacting biking requires building infrastructure, and both papers agree that Seattle’s new 10-year Bycycle Master Plan is front page news, calling for 118 miles of new bike lanes and 19 miles of trails.

David Hiller, advocacy director for the Cascade Bicycle Club, which worked with the city to develop the plan, said it isn’t perfect but deserves an “A.”

Not perfect, huh? Then I fully expect Hiller and his friends at the Sierra Club to dress up as polar bears and picket the council. In that spirit, I’ve decided to vehemently oppose the plan because despite its goal of tripling bicycling in Seattle by 2017, it won’t do anything to relieve congestion. Of course, nothing short of The Rapture™ would relieve congestion, and in Seattle, even then not so much.

And speaking of The Rapture™, the WA state Republican House Caucus is beginning to look like some pre-Tribulation prophesy come true, with yet another member leaving his stunned colleagues behind screaming “Jesus Christ!” Rep. Jim Dunn (R-Frat House Row) reportedly made an “explicit” and “inappropriate” remark to a young female staffer, prompting House minority leader Richard DeBolt to take the unusual step of asking Democratic speaker Frank Chopp to strip Dunn of all committee assignments and travel reimbursements. Wow. That must have been some remark. A pitcher of beer and a muckraking post against the political enemy of your choice to the first of the 30 or so witnesses to forward me a direct quote.

In other signs that the End Times are upon us, supposed fringe candidate Ron Paul raised a GOP record $4.3 million dollars in online contributions in one day, despite the fact that he is, you know, Ron Paul. Or, I suppose, because he is Ron Paul, and thus the only Republican presidential candidate running on an anti-war platform. The media and political establishment can try to dismiss this if they want, but this is historic. I’m not sure that Paul even knows what the Internet is, but his supporters sure do, and his burgeoning grassroots campaign is a sign of things to come. One of these days a not-batshit-crazy longshot will discover the magic formula, and turn national politics upside down.

But for the moment, I’d just settle for some really high voter turnout. It’s Election Day, so put down the Times, walk away from your computer… and VOTE!

Hey… it turns out not all “extreme right-wing” Republican state legislators are closeted homosexuals. Who knew?

State Rep. Jim Dunn will be stripped of his committee assignments and denied travel reimbursement after the 17th District lawmaker made what even Dunn acknowledged was an “inappropriate” remark to a woman at a legislative function in the Tri-Cities last month.

“We want to have zero tolerance for our members for inappropriate comments,” said House Republican leader Richard DeBolt. “We asked (Dunn) to go get sensitivity training. Until he does that, he won’t be serving on any committees.”

Dunn told Postman that he can’t remember exactly what he said to the “young lady”…

He was buying her a drink and said something like, in his words, “I’m buying you this so I can take you home, something like that.”

Yeah. Something like that. Though judging from Dunn’s photo, I’m guessing he’d have to buy an awful lot of drinks before he’d ever have a chance of a young lady coming home with him. Maybe a fifth of Everclear and roofie. And a paper sack over his head.

Dunn says he didn’t really mean it, which is of course what we all tell ourselves after we strike out, but that’s not really the point. Rep. Sharon Tomiko Santos (D-37), who was at the table, says the remark was far more explicit and inappropriate than Dunn recollects, and describes a Republican sitting next to her as “absolutely mortified.”

How explicit? Well, Dunn claims that DeBolt actually asked him to resign, potentially putting this rare, Republican, swing-district seat into Democratic hands. It beggars the imagination.

Nah… no it doesn’t. Post in the comment thread your guess of what Dunn actually said, and we’ll vote on the most creative suggestions in a later post.

Holy shit! Ron Paul is holding an online fundraiser today, and he’s already raised over $4 million!!! Really. No joke. 4 million bucks in one day. Infuckingcredible.

To put that in perspective, that’s almost twice what Mike Huckabee has raised all year, and closing in on John Kerry’s record $5.7 million nomination day haul. Not Rudy Guiliani. Not Mitt Romney. Not Fred Thompson. But Ron fucking Paul!

I’m not sure exactly what to make of this, but dollars to donuts the GOP establishment isn’t rejoicing. A) Ron Paul is an ultra-libertarian nutjob; B) Ron Paul is the only Republican presidential candidate running on an anti-war platform; and C) Ron Paul is an ultra-libertarian nutjob. That Paul is able to marshal this kind of grassroots support should send shivers up the spines of his fellow Republican hopefuls, not because he can win the nomination, but because it signals how out of touch the GOP leadership is with its own base, at least on the topic of the war in Iraq. It also makes one wonder if out of the ashes of the failed neocon experiment we might see a resurgent libertarian movement emerge? Hell, something’s gotta take its place.

Over $4 million in one day, from over 35,000 contributors — and for a “fringe” candidate. This isn’t just big, this is goddamn historic. And I just can’t see how it’s good news for Republicans in 2008.

* Finally, we’re winning the war in Iraq. I swear to God this month.

* It’s bullshit how little we spend on rail in this country.

* John Fund stepped away from beating his girlfriend long enough to pretend 8 of the 9/11 hijackers would have voted for Democrats.

* Before Hillary Clinton, nobody ever tried to get people to vote for them based on their gender. Just ask the NASCAR dads.

* General Petraeus’ spokesman is a liar.

* Vote on your favorite wingnut post of all time! Sadly, my favorite crazy post, that will be burned in my skull for ever, My Sharia is losing.

Locally:

* The Seattle Times’ Ed Board is shall we say, wrong-o on Prop-1.

* And speaking of the Times’ Ed Board. Yikes.

* Representative Curtis‘ story made the national blogs.

This is an open thread.

To the asshole who keeps calling my home phone and hanging up every 10 minutes or so, the ringer is off, and has been since yesterday afternoon, and anybody who really needs to get in touch with me knows my cell phone number. So you’re wasting your time.