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The Dow plummeted 450 points this morning in early trading, as traders responded to a worldwide plunge in share prices over the MLK holiday, and a second straight day of near-record losses in the Asian markets. How concerned are the experts? The Federal Reserve attempted to fend off a US crash by slashing interest rates three quarters of a point just before the opening bell, prompting respected financial blogger Bonddad to describe the Fed as “Wall Street’s bitch.”

The problem is liquidity isn’t the issue — it’s counter-party risk. So long as lenders are

1.) Concerned about getting repaid on existing loans and

2.) Concerned that a party might now repay even a short-term loan

3.) In the middle of writedown hell.

Then loans aren’t going to get made. It’s that simple.

Also note the the effective Fed Funds rate is now negative. The yearly increase in inflation is 4.1% and the Fed Funds rate is now 3%, meaning the effective Federal Funds rate is in fact -1.1%. This is the situation that got us into this mess.

Of course, even an impending worldwide recession has its bright spot, with crude oil prices dropping below $88 a barrel in anticipation of reduced demand.

And by the way, in case anybody is keeping score, the Dow Industrial Index closed at 10,678 on January 18, 2001, the day President Bush was sworn into office. Last time I checked it was still below 12,000 points, even after recovering about half the early morning losses. A 12% return over seven years… below the rate of inflation. Wow. Those Republicans sure do know how to run the economy. (By comparison, the Dow closed at 3,242 on January 20, 1993, the day President Bill Clinton was inaugurated, more than tripling in value over Clinton’s two terms.)

When people talk about the progressive “netroots” the first thing that comes to mind are the plethora of local and national blogs that have grown to challenge the legacy media’s diminishing control over the political narrative. But in fact it is much, much more than that, and one of the most exciting and important netroots developments of the past few years has been the growth of ActBlue, an online fundraising clearinghouse that is beginning to enable the financial power of the people to challenge the entrenched power of corporate America.

The US Supreme Court has repeatedly ruled that money is speech, and in that context, the special interests of the ultra-wealthy have long spoken louder than the interests of the average Joe, but by democratizing fundraising, introducing efficiencies and creating new grassroots opportunities that flip the traditional top-down model on its head, ActBlue has begun a process that could eventually free candidates from the financial stranglehold of corporate sponsors. The fact is that money, and the media it buys, be it television, radio, direct mail or other, is the primary means by which candidates communicate their message to voters; no realistically achievable amount of doorbelling or coffee klatches can win a congressional district on its own, and no candidate can be expected to compete for votes without securing at least a somewhat level financial playing field. ActBlue provides a tool that doesn’t just enable progressive campaigns to tap into the aggregate resources of the public at large, it enables the people to organize ourselves in support of the candidates we prefer, as opposed to merely those candidates the political establishment would prefer we be limited to choose from.

During the 2006 cycle ActBlue showed its potential, enabling the national progressive netroots community to funnel its collective resources into a handful of high-profile local races… but that is nothing compared to what we have seen so far heading into 2008. In 2005 candidates raised $1,684,797 on ActBlue from 23,816 individual contributors. In 2007 those totals leaped tenfold to $16,872,127 from 169,287 contributors. And were only just now entering the heart of the fundraising season.

Locally, the impact and influence of this populist tool can be easily discerned from ActBlue’s list of Top Ten Candidates in 2007:

Candidate	Race		Contributors
John Edwards	President		53,433
Tim Johnson	SD-Sen		5583
Donna Edwards	MD-04		5582
Darcy Burner	WA-08		4189
Dennis Kucinich	President		3126
Rick Noriega	TX-Sen		3081
Eric Massa	NY-29		2577
Mark Pera	IL-03		2290
Charlie Brown	CA-04		2067
Joseph Sestak Jr	PA-07		2067

While the roughly $140,000 Darcy Burner raised via ActBlue in 2007 accounts for only 16% of her $858,125 total, it played a crucial role in her achieving an early TKO of her primary opponent, and has provided the difference between trailing incumbent Dave Reichert in cash-on-hand versus her surprising lead. Sure, it would take double-max contributions from only 30 Republican fat cats for Reichert to counter the efforts of Burner’s 4189 ActBlue donors, but there are many, many more of us than there are of them, and that is what really puts the fear of God into the political establishment on both sides of the aisle. Burner raised less than $32 per ActBlue donor (compared to an ActBlue average of $119 per contribution in 2007,) tapping into a much broader pool of potential donors than heretofore possible in local races, and virtually eliminating the financial advantages of incumbency: nearly 90% of Burner’s 2007 money came from individual contributions, while about half of Reichert’s money came from PACs and committee transfers.

It would be an overstatement to claim that ActBlue has changed the nature of political fundraising, but it sure does appear to be in the process. (At least for the Democrats. Republicans can’t seem to put together a comparable service.) And candidates like Burner sure do appear to be at the forefront of these changes.

Josh Feit:

State Senator Mike Carrell (R-28) tried to undermine Senator Karen Keiser’s universal health-care bill at the hearing this afternoon by grilling her star witness, state Senator Jon Erpenbach from Wisconsin.

[…]

Senator Carrell tried a little scare mongering. He brought up the right wing’s shorthand for socialism. “Given that Wisconsin is on the border with Canada,” Carrell began harrumphing, “doesn’t your plan parallel theirs?”

Senator Erpenbach laughed—gave Carrell a geography lesson—and appropriately Carrell’s loaded analogy quickly came unglued. “No, it doesn’t [parallel the Canada model] except that everyone is covered,” he quipped getting another round of laughter at the geographically challenged Republican’s expense.

Somebody’s getting an atlas for Christmas.

Apparently, shamelessly racist smear campaigns aren’t limited to anonymous emails anymore, what with the Clark County Republican Party’s official website front-paging the “Barack Obama is a Muslim” hoax:

Obama takes great care to conceal the fact that he is a Muslim. […] It is reported that Obama swore his oath of office using the Koran and pictures have shown him standing for the Pledge but not reciting it and holding his hands to his side while others place their hands over their hearts.

This is chilling information about a candidate for the highest office in the Country especially given the radical Muslim claims that they will destroy American from “the inside”.

Really. I’m not making this up. Jon Devore gets the credit for exposing this pathetic attempt at swiftboating Obama, and just in case the Clark County GOP attempts to cover up their shameful hate-mongering, Jon’s captured a screen shot for posterity.

FYI, I’ve Googled several distinct phrases from the Clark County GOP’s post, and the only thing that comes up is the post itself, so either they copied it from an email or party memo, or they actually composed this garbage themselves. What a bunch of wankers.

UPDATE:
Gee, that was fast…

Wankers.

UPDATE, UPDATE:
Grays Harbor County GOP chair Cathy Colley has been caught forwarding the Obama smear from her party email account. Looks like we’re starting to see a pattern.

ECB is gaming the refs:

Dear liberal media: Please stop pretending Hillary Clinton doesn’t exist. I know the narrative you’ve written is one in which Barack Obama triumphs against all odds to defeat the baby boomers’ Democratic Party machine and achieve the American dream, but for fuck’s sake, this is an election, not a coronation, right?

I think the coronation reference is funny, considering how it used to be that Hillary was the one getting coroneted.

Mark my words, when Obama wins South Carolina, the Times is going to play it as the story of the year: Miracle long-shot candidate comes back from near-death to triumph against impossible odds.

In 2004, Deaniacs complained loudly about unfair press coverage (“yeeeeargh!!”). In 2008, Edwards people dissed the media for pushing a “two person race” construct. (That is, until it actually became a two person race, like it is now.)

I don’t think the Clinton campaign is being ignored. We’re hearing about Bill Clinton’s false allegations of voter intimidation in Nevada, and his odd misinterpretation of Obama’s Reagan comments. We’ve heard Hillary praise Joe Lieberman, and put down Martin Luther King, Jr (if ever so delicately). Even though she’s good on the issues, it’s other stuff that bugs folks and garners press coverage.

I’m out in the Philly suburbs right now, celebrating my mom’s 60th birthday. Like Goldy, I grew up in this area. It’s always interesting to come back and observe the numerous subtle differences that make this part of the country unique: the food, the accents, the Wawa’s. It’s like being in another country sometimes.

Our whole weekend was rearranged by the NFL playoffs. After the Giants beat the Cowboys last weekend and the Giants were scheduled to play the Packers for the NFC title at 6:30 on Sunday, we moved my mom’s birthday dinner from Sunday night to Saturday night (my dad and my brother-in-law are both huge Giants fans). My wife, a Seattle native, seemed amazed that we did that. Sports just matter a bit more in Philly. This is a city where the main newspaper’s sports section has its own letters to the editor section (see UPDATE). It’s not a place where this argument would work in order to move the pro basketball team to another city.

For the first game yesterday between the Patriots and Chargers, I went out to a bar in King of Prussia with an old high school buddy who I hadn’t seen in over two years. He’s been working in the mortgage industry for most of the last ten years. He’s had a front row seat for the unbelievable disaster that’s currently unfolding. He told me stories of people who went from having million-dollar salaries to being unemployed in less than a year, of a company that hired him that was clearly doing things that were illegal and was eventually indicted, and of an industry that used to be so lucrative, companies could afford to put him up in $500/night hotels and send him to the Grammy’s, but is now losing employees because people can make more as a cashier at Superfresh. Tomorrow night, he’s probably going to join me as I head out to Philly Drinking Liberally and shoot the shit about the “Big Shitpile” with Atrios.

For the late game, I went back to my sister’s place, expecting to see the Packers crush the Giants, but sadly seeing Tom Coughlin’s crew make it into the big game after Brett Favre’s miracle season ran out of gas. Now I have to brace for being the only person at the Super Bowl party rooting for the Patriots. Damn.

This morning saw some bad news. My dad got an email that his old co-worker’s son was the police officer killed in this SWAT drug raid in southeastern Virginia. He was a father of 3, killed by a 28-year-old man with no criminal record who shot through the door because he thought he was about to be robbed for the second time that week. As you might imagine, my dad isn’t quite sure what to make of my strong opinions on the drug war. Many people of his generation are so far entrenched in the mythology that has built up around the supposed dangers of drugs, that they don’t even question the methodology that has grown up over the years to fight it. While my parents saw raising a child out here in the sleepy suburbs of Montgomery County as a way to keep my sister and me from being caught up in the drug culture, it did no such thing. Drugs and corruption are everywhere, even here among the cul-de-sacs and strip malls. And the senseless tragedies that go along with it keep piling up.

UPDATE: In comments Piper says the Seattle Times also has a letters section in the sports page. Thanks for the correction.

Tonight on “The David Goldstein Show”, 7PM to 10PM on News/Talk 710-KIRO:

7PM: Radio Kos: who really won Nevada?
Daily Kos contributing editor Joan “McJoan” McCarter and Seattle P-I columnist Joel Connelly were both in Nevada this week covering the Democratic caucus, and they’ll both be in the studio to give us a first-hand report. Did Hillary Clinton really win, and if so, how’d she do it? And what does the turnout and electoral breakdown portend for the rest of the presidential race? Plus, we’ll ask Joan and Joel to respond to my theory explaining Rudy Giuliani’s brilliant Florida strategy.

8PM: Can you stump Ken Jennings?
Jeopardy champion Ken Jennings thinks he’s one smart dude, but then he’s never gone up against the likes of my know-it-all listeners. He’ll be joining us plugging his new book, “Ken Jennings’s Trivia Almanac“, and that means this is your chance to call in and stump the all time leading Jeopardy winner.

9PM: TBA
The usual liberal propaganda.

Tune in tonight (or listen to the live stream) and give me a call: 1-877-710-KIRO (5476).

Doug Ericksen (R-Ferndale) has some truly neat-o ideas for getting the GOP back into the game!

Our state must also do a better job of monitoring and addressing sex offenders. State government needs to be proactive, not reactive.

Start with your own caucus, homeboy.

On the local front, I’m working on many issues including repealing the state mandate on septic tank inspections, creating public trails districts, and ensuring local transportation projects are delivered. At the end of the legislative session we will know we were successful if we can say, “They said it couldn’t be done — but together we proved them wrong.”

Putting the kibosh on septic tank inspection? Gov. Dan Evans had his “Blueprint For Progress”… Rep. Doug Ericksen has “repealing the state mandate on septic tank inspections”.

Nothing says “solid strategy for winning back the majority” like septic tank reform.

Ever since Emmett Watson passed away, it seems the city’s columnists have been vying for the honor of replacing him as Seattle’s official curmudgeon. Take for example Seattle Times columnist Danny Westneat, who brings us this story today about Rose Walter being carded at Von’s Grand City Cafe in Seattle; when the 91-year-old great-grandmother couldn’t produce an ID with proof of age, she was denied service and asked to leave the bar. To Danny, this anecdote apparently says something deeper and broader about Seattle.

“In the good old days,” Rose says, “I don’t remember things being so fussy.”

Welcome to Seattle 2008, Rose. Fussy is our middle name.

You probably won’t be surprised the manager at Von’s feels he no longer has a choice but to ask for ID, even if it’s a centenarian hobbling in with a cane.

“Obviously you have heard what’s going on downtown lately, with the mayor and the Police Department and the liquor board,” said Greg Galuska, Von’s manager. “They’ve blatantly put out an agenda that they’re going to penalize bar operators.

“We decided that to protect ourselves in this environment, we had to move to 100 percent ID compliance,” he said. “No exceptions. It’s not worth risking imprisonment on the part of me or my staff.”

Yeah, well, my question for Danny is… when was the last time you’ve been carded?

I’m 44 years old, and with my falling hair and greying beard, I pretty much look my age (if I don’t always act it,) and I can’t remember the last time I’ve been carded in Seattle or anywhere else. I’d guess Danny’s a few years younger, and his puckish demeanor and boyish good looks only accentuate his youthful appearance. So tell us Danny… how often are you asked to produce your ID?

It’s not that I’m defending the mayor’s overly zealous anti-club crusade, it’s just that Rose’s ridiculous carding strikes me as more a comment on Von’s policies than on those of the city or the state. According to Danny…

Even the state Liquor Control Board says bars only have to check IDs of “youthful appearing persons.” Which it has defined as “anyone who does not look at least 30 years of age.”

[…] Elizabeth Walter, Rose’s daughter, says this incident is trivial by itself.

Yet she does wonder what’s become of her city.

“We’re supposed to be so liberal, but then we have this police state that’s encroaching on us, in small ways, just little by little by little,” she said.

That’s the downside of all these rules and regs and zero-tolerance policies. They’re well-intended. But they trample common sense.

Um… huh? How the hell is the LCB’s “youthful appearing persons” standard a “zero-tolerance” policy? And how exactly is this incident evidence of anybody “trampling common sense” except the folks at Von’s? (Or maybe, Danny, for attempting to conflate an isolated incident into a cautionary tale of Seattle’s slow decline into a “police state.”)

Yeah, sure… perhaps Seattle can be a little “fussy.” But if so, the fussiness starts with our columnists.

24’s 1994 pilot. Yeah, it’s old, but it’s new to me.

Tonight on “The David Goldstein Show”, 7PM to 10PM on News/Talk 710-KIRO:

7PM: The Stranger Hour with Josh Feit and Erica C. Barnett
The Stranger’s Josh Feit and Erica C. Barnett join us for the hour for our regular look back at the week’s news, and a peek ahead toward what’s coming up. Josh will give his take on the start of the new legislative session, while Erica grades the new Seattle City Council. But first, strategist, blogger, pundit James Boyce calls in with his analysis on today’s results from Nevada and New Hampshire.

8PM: Free the elephants?
Local comedian and Seattle P-I columnist Cathy Sorbo is back, and she’s brought her fellow Elephanistas with her, fight to free the Woodland Park Zoo elephants. Really.

9PM: More liberal propaganda.
Should smoking be banned when kids are in the car? Is Bush’s economic stimulus package a classic example of small government, free market conservatism? Is the US a torturer?

Tune in tonight (or listen to the live stream) and give me a call: 1-877-710-KIRO (5476).

A few weeks ago, Paul wrote about the impending return of Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert to their respective Comedy Central television shows and wondered:

Am I the only one who thinks Jon & Stephen have something up their sly little sleeves in returning to their shows?

[…]

Do we really think they’ll be anywhere near as funny?

I’m a regular viewer of late night TV, and I have to tell you, “Strike TV” has been “Must See TV”.

First of, Jon Stewart was on fire during his recent interview of Jonah Goldberg:

Also, Jon was very classy in changing the name of his show from “The Daily Show” to “A Daily Show” out of respect for his writers. Stephen Colbert, OTOH, relied on some pre-strike taped segments to get him through the week:

Leno, who sucks with his writers, sucks extra hard without them. David Letterman and Craig Ferguson agreed to terms independently with the writer’s guild, so they came back fully staffed. Letterman, however, returned with a crazy “old guy who lives in the woods” beard, and had it shaved off during the show. As guest Tom Hanks remarked, “Dave, that’s the kind of bit shows without writers do.”

More than any other program, “Late Night with Conan O’Brien” takes the cake for strike-related mischief. Whether it’s spinning his wedding ring on his desk, playing German techno set to a laser show, or riding down a zip line from the balcony to his desk, Conan has been making the best of a bad situation. Perhaps the best example of goofy-ass shit on “Late Night” is the giant rat maze that guest Tom Brokaw had to navigate just to get to the stage:

[Unfortunately, the clip won’t embed properly, so click here to check it out.]

Only 1-percent of precincts have reported, but that hasn’t stopped the AP from projecting Mitt Romney the winner of Nevada’s Republican caucus, largely on the strength of Mormon voters, who accounted for 25-percent of GOP caucus goers. Early returns show Romney taking over 40-percent of the vote, with Ron Paul, John McCain and Fred Thompson jostling for a distant second place. The much more high profile and closely fought Democratic caucus is still underway.

Meanwhile, in South Carolina, where the Republican candidates have campaigned heavily in pursuit of the top spot in today’s primary, turnout is reported to be very, very low.

Three hours into voting, the South Carolina State Election Commission reports that turnout has been low “across the board” for today’s Republican primary here.

“All the reports I’ve received from various counties is that turnout has been light,” said commission spokesman Chris Whitmire.

Hmm. That can’t be too encouraging for Republicans.

UPDATE [1:12 PM]:
The networks have all called the Nevada Democratic Caucus for Hillary Clinton, who leads Barack Obama 50% to 45% with 74% of precincts reporting. Do the math; despite trailing only slightly in recent polls, John Edwards will finish a distant third. Looks like Nevada voters bought into the media narrative that this was two-person race.

UPDATE, UPDATE [4:51 PM]:
Or maybe Obama won. I’m confused.

UPDATE, UPDATE, UPDATE [6:26 PM]:
McCain wins South Carolina. Just barely.

Seattle Times:

Advocates for a new University of Washington branch campus packed an Olympia hearing room Thursday to argue whether an urban Everett location or a more spacious Marysville campus would be the best site to serve the north Puget Sound region.

This choice is easy: Everett, right? The proposed campus would be easier to get to, considering many students take transit. The UW Tacoma location happens to be right on their streetcar line, and it’s a big success.

Backers of a 27-acre Everett site adjacent to the city’s transit center said Everett is closest to population centers, convenient to public transportation and offers a wealth of high-tech employers with whom future students can partner.

There you go, it’s a slam dunk. But the “rural campus” advocates don’t like the Everett choice:

Proponents of a 369-acre site in North Marysville said the more rural location offers a traditional campus setting with room for dormitories, sports fields and future growth. It would also better serve students in Island and Skagit counties, they said.

If a prospective student wants the sleep-away college experience, complete with sports teams and palatial grounds, that choice already exists. It’s called the University of Washington. You know, the original one.

Besides, kids from Island and Skagit counties already have a state school with sports field and dorms. It’s not new, but Western Washington University, located in Bellingham (in Whatcom county, just to the north) has been churning out quality graduates since 1893. (Most of Death Cab for Cutie! Chris Vance! Randy Tate! Joyce Taylor! The Punter For The Atlanta Falcons!)

The U-Dub’s lobbyist (who blogs, oddly enough) says this:

[…]but while the Everett site has gained some additional support this week, deep divisions remain in the legislature on the issue. More importantly, I believe a number of legislators are beginning to question the wisdom of moving ahead at all on the new campus given the cost projections and what appear to be concerns about how this really fits into the entire higher education system.

Considering just how tough a time Olympia is having providing funding for the UW branches that already exist, one has to wonder: is creating another UW branch in our best interest? Or is it more about legislators bringing home some pork?

[For more info, check out Postman’s run-down.]