HorsesAss.Org

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 375 electoral votes	Mean of 163 electoral votes

My previous analysis of the Biden-Trump head-to-head polls was way back in early June, in part because the dynamics of the race didn’t seem to be changing much. Trump is slowly slipping in the polls, as the COVID-19 epidemic worsens in the U.S., as Trump resists movements for police reforms, and as we learn bizarre things like Trump not responding to Russian bounties on American soldiers in Afghanistan.

After 100,000 simulated elections, the results are not surprising. Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 375 to Trump’s 163 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

Basically, if the election was today, Biden would win in a landslide.

Trump has a serious electoral college problem. Many swing states are now trending strongly for Biden, including Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Other swing states are pretty solidly in Biden’s camp, like Arizona, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Even Ohio trends slightly toward Biden. Iowa and Texas are in toss-up territory, but leaning slightly toward Trump. Remarkable!

The trend over the past couple months are clear from from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from Jul 2019 to the present, and, at each point in time, including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

There is, of course, plenty of time to turn this trend around. Still, Trump’s bizarre and impulsive behavior will make doing that very difficult.

[Read more…]

I saw my parents for the first time since the quarantine started over the weekend. We had a socially distanced, masked walk and a picnick. It was a relatively low risk thing, but it was still nervous making. I was glad to see them, but still I don’t know.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Now This: Sen. Mark Warner on cleaning up national parks.

BuzzFeed: How Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos will make 1 million dollars during this 7 minute video.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Immorals, Incompetents, and Incontenents:

• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп was offered Bounty paper towels from Putin
• Songify The News: Трамп v. Ramp
• Lauren Mayer: Трамп will go down!
• Now This: Senator Tammy Duckworth slams Трамп over Russian bounties
• Now This: The Dotard’s guide to American history:

• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп calls with world leaders leaked!
• Robert Reich: Трамп’s 2020 election strategy in 25 steps
• Samantha Bee: Трамп attacks our nation’s free press, part 1
• Samantha Bee: Трамп’s ongoing attacks on our nation’s free press, part 2
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп denies VERY STRONGLY knowing Ghislaine Maxwell
• Mark Fiore: Make fireworks great again!
• John Di Domenico: Трамп’s last minute, hastily put together, totally unrehearsed “Happy Canada Day” speech.
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard watches Hamilton on Disney+
• Now This: Veterans call out Трамп over paid killings of U.S. troops

Samantha Bee: How to save the Postal Service

Now This: The fight to expand vote-by-mail before election day.

Trevor: The CIA is hiring.

Black Lives Matter:

• Full Frontal: Mike Brown learns how to do the uprising thing.
• WaPo: How to be anti-racist—It’s more than books, quotes and Blackout Tuesday
• Vox: A brief history of police impunity in Black deaths
• The Daily Show: Educate your White friends with Blacklexa
• Jonathan Mann: Karen’s got a gun.
• New York Times: Why some Black Americans need guns to feel safe in their country
• The Daily Show: White people unnecessarily calling the cops on Black people
• WaPo: “Enough is enough”—Seattle police clear protest zone after mayor’s executive order

Hasan Minhaj : Why doing taxes is so hard.

The Foundation Singers: NOVEMBER!

ТрампPlague:

• John Oliver: Coronavirus IX—Evictions
• Sky News: “Heading to pure hell”—Texas counts the cost of lifting coronavirus lockdown early
• Randy Rainbow: COVER YOUR FREAKIN’ FACE!:

• John Di Domenico: Трамп RANTS about all the names for Covid, then announces he is going to sue the Kung flu!
• Roll Call: How to stay safe this July 4th
• Now This: Biden, “Трамп doesn’t understand the basic facts of the COVID-19 crisis”
• Jonathan Mann: Masks, I think they work (Sean Hannity remix)
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп’s Mt Rushmore speech on July 3rd (preview)

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Now This: Who is Ron DeSantis? (Narrated by Yedoye Travis)

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

It’s depressing how the CHOP/CHAZ is ending. There was so much generated there. Art and community. A garden. But when self-declared security forces kill a Black child it’s tough to support the place.

None of this excuses the actions of SPD in the last month or so. None of this means tear gassing protesters is retroactively OK or that we can’t defund the police. Black lives still matter.

(Also wash your hands right now.)

(At some point I will get back on track with these.)

The Supreme Court had another goodish ruling (pdf, I haven’t read it yet since I’m on lunch) in a high profile case. I am still concerned that Roberts is a swing vote in these decisions.

It’s definitely good that we’re winning these (for lack of a better phrase) culture war cases. But the court ruled on an exact same law a few years ago. It stinks that we have to play defense. If Justice Kagan (or Garland) were the swing vote, it would probably be on better cases.

Anyway, go wash your hands right now.

Hasan Minaj and AOC discuss the Green New Deal

Stephen and Jon: Joe Biden, humbled by grief, may be the leader America needs right now

ТрампPlague:

• Stephen: Трамп stoked a culture war over masks that put everyone at risk…even the Secret Service
• Bruce W. Nelson: The woodtick song (inspired by Mike Pence)
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп delivers Arizona church rally
• Trevor: U.S. hits all-time high in coronavirus cases
• Bill Maher: Live free or die hard
• Lauren Mayer: Empty chairs at empty eallies
• Jonathan Mann: Please wear a mask
• The Late Show: Jesus wants nothing to do with Mike Pence’s policies
• John Oliver: Coronavirus VIII—Prisons and jails
• Reflect: Трамп threatens rule of law by firing New York District Attorney Geoffrey Berman
• Stephen: Трамп’s risky rally tour touches down in covid hotspot Arizona as cases spike in 29 states
• Jimmy Fallon: Mike Pence refuses to wear mask at coronavirus briefing
• Seth Meyers: Trump amps up the racism because he’s failed at everything else
• Trevor: Трамп’s Tulsa rally flop
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп DESTROYS Brad Parscale and Ron DeSantis (LEAKED CALL)
• The Late Show: Rep. Louie Gohmert gets douchebusted
• Samantha Bee: Black trans lives matter
• Samantha Bee: Violence against trans women of color
• James Corden: Trump takes Tulsa, dominates drinking water
• Stephen: As Arizona covid cases spike, Трамп delivers speech to packed crowd of maskless student supporters
• Jimmy Dore: Chris Christie has cure for COVID-19!
• The Late Show: Oklahoma! Where the crowd turnout was really lame:

• Stephen: Трамп does an epic walk of shame after TikTok users and K-Pop fans troll his Tulsa rally
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп meets the President of Poland
• Sarah Cooper: How to empty seat
• Courtney Jaye: Boogie on Down to the Rally (Pt. 1)
• Courtney Jaye: Boogie on Down to the Rally (Pt. 2)
• Robert Reich: America is not exceptional
• The Late Show: Michael Bolton sings John Bolton’s book
• Bruce W. Nelson: Empty Seats, empty heart, empty head
• Jimmy Fallon: Трамп furious over lack of turnout at Tulsa rally
• The Late Show: Time for “Answer Plinko” with The Dotard
• Stephen and Jon: Let’s Address The President As #SwampyDon
• The Daily Show: The Dotard Трамп—Never not joking
• Courtney Jaye: The Ballad of Billy Barr
• Bruce W. Nelson: Tulsa
• Stephen: Melania Трамп rates The Dotard’s performance at his Tulsa rally debacle
• The Late Show: The Dotard’s post-rally walk of shame
• Seth Meyers: Трамп’s Tulsa rally was a flop
• John Di Domenico: Трамп RANTS about his Tulsa Rally in his Father’s Day Message
• Sarah Cooper: How to second term
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard goes after KPOP fans
• Stephen and Jon: Advice from 1918 and thoughts on Трамп’s handling of the coronavirus

Hasan Minhaj: We’re doing elections wrong

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses

Black Lives Matter:

• Trevor: Axed Statues and NASCAR racism
• Mark Fiore: Preserve the racist statues
• AJ+: Can Black voters swing the 2020 election?
• Trevor and Jon talk Confederate Statues, COVID-19 & “Irresistible”
• Vox: Why America’s police look like soldiers
• The Late Show: A message from Mrs. Butterworth
• Roy Zimmerman: DWB (Driving While Black):

• The Chicks: #MARCHMARCH
• Trevor: Noose in Bubba Wallace’s garage was not a hate crime
• The New York Times: Philadelphia police violated their own guidelines, here’s how
• Vox: What “defund the police” really means
• Hasan Minaj and Keith Ellison on justice for George Floyd
• Trevor: Bubba Wallace on the noose incident & bringing BLM into NASCAR

WaPo: House passes bill to make D.C. the 51st state.

Samantha Bee: Tarana Burke on the connection between police brutality and sexual violence

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Forgot about a thread today. Here’s a limerick in honor of mask wearing being mandatory in Washington starting today.

.

You really should wear a mask, it

Is not much of a thing to ask, it

Will be a breeze,

And will slow the disease.

It might even keep you out of a casket.

.

Also, please wash your hands right now.

I am glad that new rules for face masks are going into effect on Friday (pdf). It seems like a good public health measure. As with when it was Yakima County, I would prefer that this be on the government and employers rather than on individuals. I also hope you don’t call the police on some random person not wearing one.

Still, the coronavirus is spreading too much and some of you are not masking up. Come on.

Also, wash your hands right now.

It stinks that Governor Inslee has to issue an order to wear masks for Yakima County. But it is the correct thing to do. I would prefer the state put the mandate on businesses or made sure masks are available, rather than it fall to individuals. Although, I don’t know what the government’s power to force companies to act or local governments to spend money.

In any event, wash your hands right now.

Samantha Bee: The Republican campaign of voter suppression, Pt. 1.

Samantha Bee: The Republican campaign of voter suppression, Pt. 2.

Robert Reich: Seven ways 2020 has exposed America

SCOTUS Surprises:

• Roll Call: “I cried tears of joy”—Democratic leaders react to DACA decision
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп complains about DACA and Tulsa!
• Trevor: Supreme Court outlaws LGBTQ workplace discrimination
• Now This: What the Supreme Court’s DACA ruling means
• Roll Call: Will the Supreme Court’s landmark LGBTQ decision impact health care discrimination rules?
• Seth Meyers: Supreme Court rules on LGBTQ rights, police reform gains steam
• Trevor: SCOTUS protects dreamers

The Daily Show: FAUX News’s law & order experts

Bruce W. Nelson: I know a wrestling coach who’ll kick your butt (a Ted Cruz song).

ТрампPlague:

• Seth Meyers: Sen. Bernie Sanders is doing everything to prevent Трамп’s reelection
• Bruce W. Nelson: The immutable, unsuitable Dotard Трамп
• Trevor: Kimberly Jones speaking out about Black experiences in America
• The Late Show: Watch your step, Mr. Pres’nit
• Foundation Singers: “Stay home Oklahoma” with Oklahoman Brad Pitt:

• Sarah Cooper: How to more cases than anybody in the world
• Hasan Minhaj: In coronavirus world, is college still worth it?
• John Di Domenico: Трамп wishes himself happy birthday, because NO ONE can do it better
• Stephen: Трамп’s bone spurs act up at West Point, denying the President a graceful exit
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трампiversary, Paw Patrol outrage and Pence sells RVs!
• Vox: Why all Americans should honor Juneteenth
• The Late Show: Sneak peek at Mary L. Трамп’s tell-all book
• Bill Maher: America strong
• Lars Nelson and Bruce W. Nelson: Donnie don’t care about Tulsa
• John Di Domenico: Трамп’s ramp rant tweet verbatim
• Trevor: Bolton book bombshells—Трамп is corrupt and weird as fuck
• Seth Meyers: Bolton tries to cash in with Трамп Book
• Mark Fiore: MAGAmmunity
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп rally in Tulsa
• Stephen: Leaked excerpts from Bolton’s book detail Трамп’s pattern of corruption and obstruction
• The Late Show: The Dotard competes in the 2020 West Point Ramp Stakes
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп struggles at West Point and celebrates 74th birthday
• Seth Meyers: Трамп’s coronavirus cover-up and Bolton’s tell-all book
• Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп’s West Point water hazard
• Now This: Joe Biden slams Трамп’s coronavirus response as deaths exceed WWI
• Jimmy Fallon: Трамп is trying to block the publication of John Bolton’s tell-all book
• Stephen: Трамп can’t spin his choice of Juneteenth for Tulsa rally, pushes it back a day
• John Di Domenico: Трамп announces the theme for Tulsa rally
• The Late Show: John Bolton’s mustache thanks Трамп for making him rich
• Lauren Mayer: It takes a woman
• Courtney Jaye: Happy Obama day to you:

  happy @BarackObama day, president bunker boy @realDonaldTrump pic.twitter.com/lNDTs2lXzn

  — Courtney Jaye (@TropicaliJaye) June 14, 2020

• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп fends off tell-all books, supporters fend off masks
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп addresses the West Point ramp with Scott Pelley of 60 Minutes
• Lars Nelson and Bruce W. Nelson: Thrilled to death
• The Daily Show: Gun masks—The only mask that’s also a gun

Trevor: Stacey Abrams—“Our time is now” and ending voter suppression.

Black Lives Matter:

• Trevor: Трамп signs police reform while praising the police
• The Daily Show: 9-1-1 for White people emergencies
• Now This: Why COVID-19 hits Black and Latinx communities hardest
• Bill Maher with Malcolm Nance and Andrew Sullivan: What monuments should we tear down?
• Stephen: Трамп’s tiny police reform order doesn’t honor his pledge to families of police shooting victims
• Trevor: Why did Rayshard Brooks have to lose his life?
• Seth Meyers: Sen. Bernie Sanders Wants police officers to be held accountable for their actions
• Now This: What “defund the police” really means
• The Daily Show: A guide for White people Supporting Black lives matter
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп issues police reform executive order
• Trevor: Civilian militias, Black band-aids & the NFL’s apology
• Now This: Myths about Confederate monuments
• Susan Rice: Susan Rice’s advice for Joe Biden.
• The Daily Show: What is Juneteenth? Dulcé Sloan explains
• Late Night: Amber Ruffin answers frequently asked Juneteenth questions

Full Frontal: Meet reference man.

Foundation Singers: “Farewell far-right!” Hannity and Murdoch meet Billy Joel:

John Oliver: Facial recognition.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

King County is in Phase Two of the coronavirus response. The link has what various types of businesses can do. I am still pretty nervous about any indoor gathering for the foreseeable future. Like, you’re only as safe as the worst person around. And card rooms seem particularly no good. Ick.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Man, I don’t know if it’s just me getting older or something to do with the quarantine, but I am not sleeping well at all. I am still going to sleep and getting up at the same time as before. But now I am just exhausted all the time.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Cases of COVID-19 are increasing in Washington. It seems like this is to do with Memorial Day. Grand reopening maybe grand reclosing.

I don’t know if we’ll see future spikes based on the protests. It being outside, with masks, and in some cases spaced out, mitigates the spread. But big crowds and not always being able to keep distance isn’t great. I assume that we would have started hearing about cases if they were happening in large numbers.

Anyway, stay safe and wash your hands right now.

Robert Reich: Who’s really looting America?

ТрампPlague:

• Courtney Jaye: Babygate
• Bruce W. Nelson: Cows, Fences and The Dotard Трамп
• The Late Show: Ghosts of Confederate soldiers have new military base name ideas for Трамп
• Bill Maher: New Rule—Democracy’s safe word
• Bruce W. Nelson: Put your mask on!
• Trevor: Coronavirus is on the upswing
• Lars von Retriever: MetalTrump–Dig (Mudvayne)
• Bruce W. Nelson: Bunker Room
• Lauren Mayer: Ivanka is the new Karen:

• Courtney Jaye: STFU, Ivanka
• The Late Show: Platitudes generator can’t handle Ivanka Trump’s commencement speech
• Bruce W. Nelson: Babygate!
• Seth Meyers: Трамп defends the Confederacy, complains about polls
• Robert Reich: The deadly FAUX News-Трамп syndicate
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s back out, COVID sex guidelines & NASCAR flag ban
• Courtney Jaye: Fuck this fucking president
• Bruce W. Nelson: Bunker fevor

Courtney Jaye: FAUX News is the devil

The Night the Lights Went Out on Georgia’s Voters:

• Stephen: Voter suppression plagues Georgia’s primary
• Trevor: Georgia’s disastrous primary
• The Late Show: Think you can get past Georgia’s voter suppression boss?

Trevor: Joe Biden on healing the country and acknowledging weaknesses

Black Lives Matter:

• Stephen: Jon Batiste on leading a musical march for justice
• Trevor: Confederate symbols are coming down
• Jonathan Mann: Jackboot
• Samantha Bee: America’s long-standing tradition of police brutality
• Daily Show: FAUX News is suddenly anti-protest
• The Late Show: A special message from Antifa
• Randy Rainbow: The Bunker Boy:

• Seth Meyers: Trump sinks in polls as protesters call to defund the police
• Trevor: Трамп doubles down and Democrats respond to protests
• Stephen: Megan Rapinoe’s parents taught her that you need to help people, period.
• Courtney Jaye: Bunker Boy
• Seth Meyers: Трамп and the police lash out at the Black Lives Matter protests
• Trevor: Joe Biden on reforming the police
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s “Army,” Mitt Romney marches & Americans come together
• Stephen: Emmanuel Acho—Being anti-racist means calling out racism wherever you see it
• Jonathan Mann: The Capitol Hill autonomous zone
• John Oliver: Police
• Sarah Cooper: How to bunker
• Trevor: Cops meet police brutality protests with more police brutality
• Stephen: Trump openly insults Black Americans by scheduling MAGA rally on Juneteenth in Tulsa, OK
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп tweets conspiracy theory & cousin Micki’s words of hope
• The USA Singers: The Ballad of George Floyd:

• Samantha Bee: It’s time to defund the Police
• Trevor: America protests police brutality and systemic racism
• The Late Show: Beware…The elderly Antifa!
• Mark Fiore: Defunding everything but the police
• Stephen: Calls to defund the police intensify while Трамп attacks Buffalo man assaulted by the cops
• Trevor: What should we do about police unions?

Hasan Minhaj: The news industry is being destroyed

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Higgldy Piggledy,

The CHAZ has anarchy.

Building something without

The police.

.

However tenuous

The claims of

Autonomy

I hope they won’t cease.

(Also, wash your hands right now)