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House Dems Pass a Budget; House Republicans Still Dishonest

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 3/8/12, 6:09 pm

Goldy has the details.

With only hours left in the regular session, the Washington State House just rejected the Senate Republicans’ coup budget on a 56-43-ish vote (I neglected to write down the tally). Not that it’s news, but this sorta-officially guarantees a special session.

Also not news, Republicans are bunch of fucking liars. Listening to the TVW broadcast it was often hard to figure out whether the representative was a Republican or a Democrat, mostly because the Republicans kept accusing the Democrats of cutting funding for education, when in fact it’s the other way around, and kept attacking the Democratic budget for its “gimmicks,” when the R’s balance theirs by skipping a pension payment. But you know, I guess if they repeat it often enough, voters might believe it’s true.

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Open Thread 3/8

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 3/8/12, 7:54 am

– Since Buck O’Neil was inducted into the Hall of Famous Missourians, it’s been one of those things I think about visiting but never actually do. Now, not so much.

– If you’re going to imply, for example, that Rebecca Traister is a hypocrite and sellout only willing to criticize MSNBC hosts on listervs, you might want to spend a minute or two looking into whether she’s, say, written an (excellent) book that extensively discusses the sexist treatment Hillary Clinton received at the hands of Olberman et al.

– Aphra’s Reading Room: Women’s History Month Edition, Part I

– While, of course, we should take things like potential threats to Rush Limbaugh seriously, it seems Glenn Reynolds jumped the gun.

– Noooooooooooooooooo

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A One Day Session Once A Month

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 3/7/12, 5:18 pm

The Senate Republicans and turncoat Democrats are still up to their bullshit. They may try to oust Ed Murray as Ways and Means chair if he doesn’t negotiate for their budget.

But here’s the thing. As Goldy mentions, we don’t have to hurry to get a budget passed. A budget passed the last session and since it’s biannual* it isn’t required to pass another one this session. While that means (depending on how the economy does) we’ll have to pass another budget at some point, it doesn’t have to be now.

So here’s my suggestion: the House Democrats pass their ideal budget fix and then say take it or leave it. If the Senate leaves it, have Gregoire call a special session a month from now to see if they’re in a better mood to pass it. If not, we can keep waiting. She can do the same thing until the Senate agrees.

Of course neither the legislators nor Rob McKenna could raise any money if we do that, but the second half is my favorite part.

[Read more…]

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Poll Analysis: Inslee and McKenna tied

by Darryl — Wednesday, 3/7/12, 10:32 am

A new poll was released today in the race between Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-1) and state AG Rob McKenna (R). The poll of 500 “Washington registered voters who are likely to vote in the November…election” was taken from 21 to 23 February. The margin of error is 4.4%.

The poll shows the candidate’s favorable/unfavorables about tied at 33%/21% for Inslee and 33%/20% for McKenna. Here is the key result:

GIMar2012

This makes the second consecutive poll showing the race a tie. A PPP poll taken a few days earlier had the candidates tied at 42%. A SurveyUSA poll taken a week earlier had McKenna leading Inslee 49% to 39%.

The polling history for this race shows that McKenna held a solid lead in the fall of 2011 that lasted into mid-February 2012.

InsleeMcKenna07Feb12-07Mar12Washington

The three most recent polls in this race are nearly contiguous, covering a period from the 13th to the 23rd of February with only a 2 day gap between the two most recent polls. Therefore, I’ve pooled them to give a snapshot of the race for the second half of February. This yields a sample of 2,336 “votes” of which 1,945 go to either McKenna or Inslee. McKenna leads Inslee 42.9% to 40.4%.

A Monte Carlo analysis of a million simulated elections using this sample yields 179,027 wins for Inslee and 817,061 wins for McKenna. The results suggest that, if the election had been held during the second half of February, McKenna would have won with an 82% probability and Inslee would have won with an 18% probability. Here is the distribution of election outcomes:

ThreeFebPolls

The analysis does not, of course, consider the trend over the last three polls. The two most recent polls must give Inslee supporters a big sigh of relief and some hope in what was shaping up to be a certain victory for McKenna.

[The most recent analysis for this race is here]

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Super Tuesday Open Thread

by Darryl — Tuesday, 3/6/12, 5:11 pm

Game on! Have at it in the comment thread.

5:11 (PDT): Okay…so I just got here and I haven’t gotten situated yet. But on the way here I heard that Mitt has likely won Virginia, Vermont, and Massachusetts. No surprises here. Vermont is a suburb of Massachusetts, where Romney was Governor. And in Vermont, the polls in February and early March had Romney up by 30 to 50 points. Of course, Santorum and Newt didn’t qualify for the ballot, so Romney’s strong lead was over Ron Paul.

5:17: Newt wins Georgia. No surprise there, either—he represented Georgia. They hated him less as Mr. Speaker than the rest of America.

5:21: I’m listening to the NPR live coverage but watching MSNBC on the TV.

5:22: Mitt Romney is up by only some 4,000 votes in Ohio, with 7% counted.

5:26: Newt promises $2.50 a gallon gasoline. When will Newt Gingrich promise that, as President, he will completely prevent tornado deaths?

5:29: Romney is up 74% in Massachusettes. Newt is at 4% there. In Georgia, Newt is at 48%, Romney is at 22%. Does this mean that Newt is hated outside his home turf more than Romney?

5:34: On NPR they are wondering why Santorum isn’t “cleaning up” with the Catholic vote. Why is Romney winning more of the Catholic vote [in every primary so far] than Santorum? Two words: Catholic Women.

5:36: Former Georgia congressman Bob Barr (2008 Libertarian nominee for PUSA) is on NPR. He is trying to argue that Newt’s campaign isn’t Quixotic. His argument: “Newt has big ideas.” Most Republicans view that as The Problem.

5:40: Wife #3 is introducing Newt for his Georgia victory speech. NPR doesn’t care.

5:41: Not unexpected: Rick Santorum is the projected winner of Tennessee. All but one recent poll had Santorum winning. The outlier had Romney up by +1. The real issue is why the hell didn’t Gingrich do better in a Southern state? (Answer: Americans hate Gingrich more than just about any politician.)

5:45: The NPR pundits keep talking about how Mitt Romney wins among more educated and affluent demographics, and Rick Santorum wins among poorer and less educated demographics. Answer: Santorum appeals to the Stupid.

5:49: It looks like Oklahoma is now being called for Santorum…which just goes to show. Oklahoma your NOT okay!

5:54: In another “election” of interest, Netflix has become the 30th advertiser to drop Rush Limbaugh like a hot Santorum-seasoned potato.

5:59: Is Gingrich still fucking speaking? Or is MSNBC playing the same speech over and over again? Either way, it exceeds the ideas-absorbing capacity of most Homo sapiens.

6:02: Regarding Ohio: I know a Santorum win here would maximize the primary chaos, but I’m secretly hoping for a dead tie. Does that make me a bad person?

6:06: Whooot!!! Santorum just oozed into the lead in Ohio…up by ~2500 6407 votes.

6:23: Huh…NPR is carrying Santorum’s victory speech, but they only gave a few seconds of excerpts of Newt Gingrich’s victory speech.

6:46: And NPR carries Mitt Romney’s speech. I guess Newt Gingrich is chopped liver. Hmmm…actually, that seems about right.

6:58: I love the fact that MSNBC is carrying Mitt Romney’s speech with the right hand side of the screen showing he is getting his ass wiped by Santorum in Ohio (pun not intended).

7:32: Michael Moore is gesticulating all over MSNBC. He is clean shaven tonight…clearly, that was inspired by Breitbart’s demise.

7:40: Romney is putting the squeeze on Santorum in Ohio…down to 6,000 votes from a max of 15,000.

7:46: Man…Ohio is just the pinnacle of entertainment. Mitt Romney is closing up from behind on Santorum.

8:01: I went to Ron Paul’s web site this evening, ready to make a donation. Of course, I would only consider donating in gold. After going through the long registration process, the fucking site wanted a credit card number or paypal account. What the fuck?

8:06: Ohio is now down to a difference of 1,300 or so. PLEASE people, PRAY FOR A TIE!

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Super Tuesday Drinking Liberally Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 3/6/12, 3:40 pm

Please join us on this Super Tuesday for an evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our regular starting time is 8:00pm, but tonight some of us will be there earlier to watch the election returns.

I’ll be live blogging at HA from the Ale House.


Can’t make it to Seattle? There is also a Super Tuesday meeting tonight of the Tri-Cities chapter. And on Thursday, Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets.

With 231 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

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Poll Analysis: Santorum improves, Obama still leads

by Darryl — Tuesday, 3/6/12, 2:43 pm


Obama Santorum
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 338 electoral votes Mean of 200 electoral votes

Just in time for Super Tuesday, here is an analysis of the current and most recent state head-to-head polls in the race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Rick Santorum with a mean of 356 electoral votes to Santorum’s 182.

There have been 22 new polls since then. I’ve included them in a Monte Carlo analysis of 100,000 simulated election. Obama wins all 100,000. An election held now would be won by Obama with near certainty.

Obama receives (on average) 338 to Santorum’s 200 electoral votes. That’s right…Rick Santorum is doing better against Obama than he did a couple of weeks ago. He still loses, but not a badly.

What is interesting, however, is that Santorum, at 200 electoral votes, is slightly stronger against Obama than Mitt Romney with 197 electoral votes. The change reflects Romney slipping against Obama and Santorum coming in a little stronger against Obama in some states.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Poll Analysis: Obama has solid lead over Romney

by Darryl — Tuesday, 3/6/12, 2:26 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 341 electoral votes Mean of 197 electoral votes

It’s been awhile since I’ve posted one of these. That analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 331 to 207 electoral votes and with a 99.9% probability of winning.

Some 23 new polls have trickled out since then. I’ll skip the details (you can get to the polling data from the big table below). With these new polls weighing in, a Monte Carlo analysis gives Obama 100,000 wins out of 100,000 simulated elections. This implies that, in an election held now, Obama would have a near-100% chance of winning. Obama has gained +10 electoral votes for an average of 341 to Romney’s 197.

Obama likely wins the “big three,” Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, as well as Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Virginia. Still no new polls in South Carolina, so the state is still blue based on the early December poll.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]

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Open Thread 3/6

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 3/6/12, 8:01 am

– The Safe Speed Bill becomes another casualty of the budget debacle.

– The C line.

– Snow in West Seattle (Downtown was snow free)

– Also – should add, Utah does NOT have a 72-hr waiting period for purchasing a firearm.

– The Laurens County Republican Party has some new requirements for office.

– Washington is the 11th most popular state.

– 6 Things Rich People Need to Stop Saying

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The Constitutional Remedy for Disenfranchisement

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 3/5/12, 10:13 pm

The more I think of voter ID laws and their potential to disenfranchise large swaths of people, the more I think the obvious solution is in the 14th amendment.

Representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed. But when the right to vote at any election for the choice of electors for President and Vice-President of the United States, Representatives in Congress, the Executive and Judicial officers of a State, or the members of the Legislature thereof, is denied to any of the male inhabitants of such State, being twenty-one years of age, and citizens of the United States, or in any way abridged, except for participation in rebellion, or other crime, the basis of representation therein shall be reduced in the proportion which the number of such male citizens shall bear to the whole number of male citizens twenty-one years of age in such State.

With the 19th and 26th amendments, presumably that includes women and anyone 18-21. It seems to me that courts could do it now, but it’s probably better if Congress decides on a reasonable formula. It seems to me if states are going to disenfranchise their citizens, they should lose some representation.

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Real Journalism

by Lee — Monday, 3/5/12, 9:18 pm

Keegan Hamilton takes a very comprehensive look at I-502 and the DUI conundrum.

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The surge and the splat of Rick Santorum

by Darryl — Monday, 3/5/12, 1:06 pm

In the archives of electoral history, the Washington state caucus will be recognized as the event that sealed the deal for Mitt Romney’s nomination. SuperTuesday is only going to confirm what Washington settled. Romney’s double digit win was devastating to Santorum, who was up with a double-digit lead in a mid-February WA primary poll.

The confirmation will come in Ohio, where Santorum had led Romney in every one of the numerous February primary polls. That changed in March. Romney leads in two of the three polls released over the weekend. The inertia suggest to me that Romney will beat Santorum by 5 or 6 percent in Ohio on Tuesday.

The abundant polling in Ohio tells the same story that we saw in only a few Washington polls: Rick Santorum received his brief turn as the Not Mitt. You know, like Gingrich before him (who actually got two rises and falls), and Herman Cain before that, and Rick Perry before that.

ricksantorumposesRick Santorum posing for a photo that, he believes, will portray him as an ordinary American

Perry went “oops!”, Cain was too touching for a presidential candidate, and Newt Gingrich got enough media attention to remind Republicans why they hated Speaker Gingrich so damn much. So what happened to Rick Santorum?

He opened up his big fat yapper, that’s what.

Actually…it’s more like people started paying attention to the things he’s always been saying. As a consequence, he was recognized for the puritanical freak show that he is. And for what a lousy politician he is.

On the freak side, we learned that Rick REALLY does believe that sometimes rape has a sort-of up-side: the gift of a baby. We learned that he opposes contraception because it is “a license to do things in a sexual realm that is counter to how things are supposed to be.” Yikes!

64344539Rick Santorum explaining how things are supposed to be in the sexual realm

These two statements alone make Mr. Santorum a freak or, as Esquire’s Charles Pierce puts it, “a dedicated theocratic loon”, in the eyes of most Americans. Even in the eyes of some Republicans.

And that brings us to the lousy politician side. I suspect that about half of Republicans (largely the males) don’t overly object to Santorum’s freakish obsession with controlling people’s sexual and reproductive organs. What they won’t tolerate, however, is a politician who actually talks about it. Doing so is a sign of political tone-deafness, if not stupidity. The message: Santorum hasn’t mastered the political fine arts of obfuscation and lying.

I learned, first hand, about these flaws in Santorum as one of his constituents during President Clinton’s Senate impeachment trial. I wrote a letter to Santorum as well as Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) expressing my disapproval of the House’s witch hunt, and my strong opinion that Clinton should be acquitted. I received (canned) letters back from both. Santorum’s letter attempted to justify his vote for conviction in the strongest way. He dug in.

What I realized about him is that, unlike some of his other colleagues in the Senate, Santorum actually believed in impeaching a President over a blow job. It wasn’t about political power and victory. No…it was a moral imperative to remove the sodomite for his impenitent transgressions against God. I realized he was too stupid to realize that his letter angered me to the point of triggering activism.

No, nominating a person with Santorum’s political handicaps would be an act of electoral malpractice way beyond what John McCain committed when he selected an unvetted Sarah Palin to be his 2008 running mate. Republicans aren’t going to make that mistake anytime soon.

rick-santorum-familyRick Santorum, his wife, and their totally normal home-schooled children

So…say goodbye to Rick Santorum. The freak show is over.

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Open Thread 3/5

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 3/5/12, 7:59 am

– Saving the PI Globe.

– Employer Authorization for Contraception

– A view from the deck.

– Rush Limbaugh’s non-apology.

– What’s the matter with white people? is obviously a provocative title, but well worth the read.

– Freewayblogger is looking for slogans about climate change for the next tour.(h/t)

– Yes, this is mostly an excuse for the Democrats to get you on their email list, but you can commit to the Democratic caucuses here.

– Rushed Apology

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Bird’s Eye View Contest

by Lee — Sunday, 3/4/12, 12:00 pm

Last week’s contest was won by Poster Child. It was the house in Graham, WA where Josh Powell killed himself and his two sons.

This week’s location is a random place somewhere on earth, good luck!

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HA Bible Study

by Goldy — Sunday, 3/4/12, 7:00 am

Matthew 8:30-32
Not far from there a large herd of pigs was feeding. So the demons begged Jesus, “If you force us out, please send us into those pigs!” Jesus told them to go, and they went out of the men and into the pigs. All at once the pigs rushed down the steep bank into the lake and drowned.

Discuss.

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