Poll Analysis: Obama still leads but Santorum does better than Romney

ObamaSantorum
99.7% probability of winning 0.3% probability of winning
Mean of 329 electoral votesMean of 209 electoral votes

There have been 17 new polls released since my last analysis of the state head-to-head polls with President Barack Obama against Rick Santorum:

startendsample%%%
stpolldatedatesizeMOEOSdiff
AZRasmussen13-Mar13-Mar5004.54445S+1
CTQuinnipiac14-Mar19-Mar16222.45535O+20
FLRasmussen13-Mar13-Mar5004.54543O+2
MEPPP02-Mar04-Mar12562.85835O+23
MAPPP16-Mar18-Mar9363.26129O+32
MORasmussen14-Mar15-Mar5004.54251S+9
NERasmussen05-Mar05-Mar5004.53749S+12
NHARG15-Mar18-Mar5574.24837O+11
NJFairleigh Dickinson U05-Mar11-Mar8003.55433O+21
NMRasmussen14-Feb14-Feb5004.55537O+18
NYSiena26-Feb29-Feb8083.46430O+34
NCPPP08-Mar11-Mar8043.54944O+5
ORSurveyUSA14-Mar19-Mar16152.549.339.5O+9.8
PAPPP08-Mar12-Mar5644.14846O+2
PAQuinnipiac07-Mar12-Mar12562.84544O+1
VAPPP20-Mar20-Mar5004.55339O+14
VAQuinnipiac13-Mar18-Mar10343.14940O+9

The most interesting result is that Obama leads in both Pennsylvania polls—that is, in Santorum’s home state. Obama also has a small lead in Florida.

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Santorum by a mean of 338 to 200 electoral votes, and a 100% probability of winning an election held then.

Today’s Monte Carlo analysis employing 100,000 simulated elections, gives Obama 99,695 wins to Santorum 305 wins (including the 45 ties). Obama receives (on average) 329 to Santorum’s 209 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would be expected to win with a 99.7% probability, Santorum would win with a 0.3% probability of winning.

Remarkably, Santorum is doing better against Obama than Mitt Romney was two days ago, where Obama had a 100% probability of winning with a mean of 339 to Romney’s 199 electoral votes.

Electoral College Map

AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLousianaMaineMarylandMassachusettesMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Electoral College Map

GeorgiaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoDelawareConnecticutFloridaMississippiAlabamaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

  • 332 electoral votes with a 3.53% probability
  • 341 electoral votes with a 3.43% probability
  • 352 electoral votes with a 2.91% probability
  • 323 electoral votes with a 2.63% probability
  • 312 electoral votes with a 2.59% probability
  • 321 electoral votes with a 2.25% probability
  • 343 electoral votes with a 2.15% probability
  • 347 electoral votes with a 2.12% probability
  • 331 electoral votes with a 2.02% probability
  • 338 electoral votes with a 1.99% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 99.7%, Santorum wins 0.3%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 328.8 (21.7)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Santorum: 209.2 (21.7)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 330 (285, 368)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Santorum: 208 (170, 253)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

ThresholdSafe+ Strong+ Leans+ Weak
Safe Obama139
Strong Obama119258
Leans Obama8383341
Weak Obama000341
Weak Santorum111111197
Leans Santorum3636186
Strong Santorum75150
Safe Santorum75

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

00EC#Total%%ObamaSantorum
48VotespollsVotesObamaSantorum% wins% wins
AL91*754 37.8 62.2 0.0100.0
AK30*(0)(100)
AZ111445 49.4 50.6 43.5 56.5
AR61*1744 40.4 59.6 0.0100.0
CA551*460 62.0 38.0100.0 0.0
CO91*730 51.1 48.9 65.4 34.6
CT711460 61.1 38.9100.0 0.0
DE30(100)(0)
DC30(100)(0)
FL291440 51.1 48.9 63.4 36.6
GA1611041 48.1 51.9 19.0 81.0
HI41*517 64.8 35.2100.0 0.0
ID40*(0)(100)
IL201*546 61.5 38.5100.0 0.0
IN110*(0)(100)
IA61*720 48.9 51.1 33.6 66.4
KS61*442 45.0 55.0 7.2 92.8
KY81*528 45.5 54.5 7.4 92.6
LA81*542 41.1 58.9 0.1 99.9
ME411168 62.3 37.7100.0 0.0
MD100(100)(0)
MA1121332 69.0 31.0100.0 0.0
MI161*2645 65.5 34.5100.0 0.0
MN101*461 57.5 42.5 98.8 1.2
MS61*717 40.0 60.0 0.0100.0
MO101465 45.2 54.8 6.9 93.1
MT31*430 47.7 52.3 25.0 75.0
NE21430 43.0 57.0 2.3 97.7
NE110(0)(100)
NE210(0)(100)
NE310(0)(100)
NV61440 59.1 40.9 99.7 0.3
NH41473 56.4 43.6 97.8 2.2
NJ1421897 61.0 39.0100.0 0.0
NM51*460 59.8 40.2 99.8 0.2
NY291759 68.1 31.9100.0 0.0
NC151748 52.7 47.3 84.8 15.2
ND30(0)(100)
OH1811293 58.2 41.8100.0 0.0
OK70(0)(100)
OR711434 55.5 44.5 99.8 0.2
PA2021648 50.7 49.3 64.9 35.1
RI40(100)(0)
SC90(0)(100)
SD31*436 42.2 57.8 1.1 98.9
TN111*1206 47.5 52.5 11.3 88.7
TX381*466 42.1 57.9 0.8 99.2
UT60*(0)(100)
VT31*728 65.9 34.1100.0 0.0
VA1332451 58.9 41.1100.0 0.0
WA121*1163 56.5 43.5 99.9 0.1
WV50*(0)(100)
WI1021273 51.1 48.9 72.1 27.9
WY30(0)(100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Comments

  1. 2

    spews:

    @1. YLB spews- Sorry right wingers – mostly true…

    Who are you talking to??? If, as you said here, you don’t want anyone with views you don’t share on this site, then surely you wouldn’t want to encourageright wingers” to participate by saying something like that?… Perhaps you do want “right wingers” but just don’t want any “Fuselage Independents” around. Strange to want 2 extremes but nothing in the middle, sounds like the problem we have in congress…..

    Since I’m not a right winger, I’ll pass.

  2. 5

    spews:

    4 – Until you do this “missionary” work of yours at (un)soundpolitics.com, I will ignore you and I highly recommend everyone else to do the same.

  3. 6

    spews:

    Hey! It looks like you listened to @4 and finally took the advice at @87 #2. Good job, you’re learning. Although you said as much here, and here and now here (@5 above).

    However, if you come to your senses (see if Rabbits wife can hit you over the head with that frying pan) in the future I’m very forgiving and willing to help. ;-)

  4. 7

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Hey Dave, do us all a favor and clean the sticky peanut butter and jelly out of your keyboard’s bold key.

  5. 9

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    What Took Them So Long?

    “Republicans joined the call for an investigation into the shooting death of Trayvon Martin on Friday ….”

    http://nbcpolitics.msnbc.msn.c.....in-inquiry

    Roger Rabbit Commentary: Republicans got together, energized their one collective brain cell by hooking it up to a flashlight battery, and then thought for a month before figuring out they should be against vigilante murder, too. I wonder how many times they had to change batteries before reaching this conclusion?

  6. 10

    Politically Incorrect spews:

    @9,

    I imagine the trial lawyers in Florida are trying to figure out a way to sue the condo association for wrongful death. This Zimmerman guy probably hasn’t got a pot to piss in or a window to throw it out of, so the next deepest pocket for the trial lawyers is probably going to be the condo association. If that doesn’t work, they’ll probably try to go after the city, county or state. There’s no telling what they’ll try to get a big judgement.

    We need a loser-pay tort system to discourage the trial lawyers.