Obama versus Santorum using polls from 23-Feb-12 to 23-Mar-12

Alabama

2004 Result: 36.84% Kerry, 62.46% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.74% Obama, 60.32% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Santorum: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
Capital Survey Research Center	06-Jul-11	06-Sep-11	841	3.3	33.9	55.8	S+21.9

Alaska

2004 Result: 35.52% Kerry, 61.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 37.89% Obama, 59.43% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.

Arizona

2004 Result: 44.40% Kerry, 54.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 45.11% Obama, 53.63% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 43.5% wins (43,471 wins ), Santorum: 56.5% wins (56,529 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
Rasmussen	13-Mar-12	13-Mar-12	500	4.5	44.0	45.0	S+1.0

Arkansas

2004 Result: 44.55% Kerry, 54.31% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.86% Obama, 58.72% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Santorum: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
Talk Business-Hendrix College	15-Sep-11	15-Sep-11	2101	2.1	33.5	49.5	S+16.0

California

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 44.36% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.01% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

55 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (99,981 wins ), Santorum: 0.0% wins (19 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
Rasmussen	08-Feb-12	16-Feb-12	500	4.5	57.0	35.0	O+22.0

Colorado

2004 Result: 47.02% Kerry, 51.69% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.66% Obama, 44.71% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 65.4% wins (65,419 wins ), Santorum: 34.6% wins (34,581 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
PPP	01-Dec-11	04-Dec-11	793	3.5	47.0	45.0	O+2.0

Connecticut

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 43.95% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.59% Obama, 38.22% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Santorum: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
Quinnipiac	14-Mar-12	19-Mar-12	1622	2.4	55.0	35.0	O+20.0

Delaware

2004 Result: 53.35% Kerry, 45.75% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.94% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.

D.C.

2004 Result: 89.18% Kerry, 9.34% Bush.

2008 Result: 92.46% Obama, 6.53% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.

Florida

2004 Result: 47.09% Kerry, 52.10% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.03% Obama, 48.22% McCain.

29 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 63.4% wins (63,358 wins ), Santorum: 36.6% wins (36,642 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
Rasmussen	13-Mar-12	13-Mar-12	500	4.5	45.0	43.0	O+2.0

Georgia

2004 Result: 41.37% Kerry, 57.97% Bush.

2008 Result: 46.99% Obama, 52.20% McCain.

16 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 19.0% wins (19,048 wins ), Santorum: 81.0% wins (80,952 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
SurveyUSA	23-Feb-12	26-Feb-12	1156	2.9	43.3	46.7	S+3.4

Hawaii

2004 Result: 54.01% Kerry, 45.26% Bush.

2008 Result: 71.85% Obama, 26.58% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Santorum: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
PPP	13-Oct-11	16-Oct-11	568	4.1	59.0	32.0	O+27.0

Idaho

2004 Result: 30.26% Kerry, 68.38% Bush.

2008 Result: 36.10% Obama, 61.53% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.

Illinois

2004 Result: 54.82% Kerry, 44.48% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.78% McCain.

20 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (99,984 wins ), Santorum: 0.0% wins (16 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
Tribune/WGN-TV	02-Feb-12	06-Feb-12	600	4.0	56.0	35.0	O+21.0

Indiana

2004 Result: 39.26% Kerry, 59.94% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.95% Obama, 48.91% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.

Iowa

2004 Result: 49.23% Kerry, 49.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.93% Obama, 44.39% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 33.6% wins (33,586 wins ), Santorum: 66.4% wins (66,414 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
Iowa Poll	12-Feb-12	15-Feb-12	800	3.5	44.0	46.0	S+2.0

Kansas

2004 Result: 36.62% Kerry, 62.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.65% Obama, 56.61% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 7.2% wins (7,174 wins ), Santorum: 92.8% wins (92,826 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
SurveyUSA	18-Nov-11	22-Nov-11	510	4.4	39.0	47.6	S+8.6

Kentucky

2004 Result: 39.69% Kerry, 59.55% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.17% Obama, 57.40% McCain.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 7.4% wins (7,367 wins ), Santorum: 92.6% wins (92,633 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
PPP	25-Aug-11	28-Aug-11	600	4.0	40.0	48.0	S+8.0

Louisiana

2004 Result: 42.22% Kerry, 56.72% Bush.

2008 Result: 39.93% Obama, 58.56% McCain.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.1% wins (131 wins ), Santorum: 99.9% wins (99,869 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
Clarus Research Group	06-Oct-11	08-Oct-11	602	4.0	37.0	53.0	S+16.0

Maine

2004 Result: 53.57% Kerry, 44.58% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.67% Obama, 40.36% McCain.

4 Electoral votes. Maine allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner. No district-level polls have been released to date.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Santorum: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
PPP	02-Mar-12	04-Mar-12	1256	2.8	58.0	35.0	O+23.0

Maryland

2004 Result: 55.91% Kerry, 42.93% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.47% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.

Massachusetts

2004 Result: 61.94% Kerry, 36.78% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.80% Obama, 35.99% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Santorum: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
PPP	16-Mar-12	18-Mar-12	936	3.2	61.0	29.0	O+32.0
WNEU	23-Feb-12	01-Mar-12	527	4.3	66.0	27.0	O+39.0

Michigan

2004 Result: 51.23% Kerry, 47.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.43% Obama, 40.96% McCain.

16 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Santorum: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
Marist	19-Feb-12	20-Feb-12	3149	1.8	55.0	29.0	O+26.0

Minnesota

2004 Result: 51.09% Kerry, 47.61% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.06% Obama, 43.82% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 98.8% wins (98,799 wins ), Santorum: 1.2% wins (1,201 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
SurveyUSA	31-Jan-12	02-Feb-12	542	4.3	48.8	36.1	O+12.7

Mississippi

2004 Result: 39.75% Kerry, 59.44% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.00% Obama, 56.18% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Santorum: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
PPP	04-Nov-11	06-Nov-11	796	3.5	36.0	54.0	S+18.0

Missouri

2004 Result: 46.10% Kerry, 53.30% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.29% Obama, 49.43% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 6.9% wins (6,855 wins ), Santorum: 93.1% wins (93,145 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
Rasmussen	14-Mar-12	15-Mar-12	500	4.5	42.0	51.0	S+9.0

Montana

2004 Result: 38.56% Kerry, 59.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 47.25% Obama, 49.52% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 25.0% wins (24,982 wins ), Santorum: 75.0% wins (75,018 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
Rasmussen	22-Feb-12	22-Feb-12	500	4.5	41.0	45.0	S+4.0

Nebraska

2004 Result: 32.68% Kerry, 65.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.60% Obama, 56.53% McCain.

2 Electoral votes. Nebraska allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

1 poll

Obama: 2.3% wins (2,292 wins ), Santorum: 97.7% wins (97,708 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
Rasmussen	05-Mar-12	05-Mar-12	500	4.5	37.0	49.0	S+12.0

Nebraska-1

2004 Result: 36.00% Kerry, 63.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.09% Obama, 44.34% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.

Nebraska-2

2004 Result: 38.00% Kerry, 60.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 48.76% Obama, 49.96% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.

Nebraska-3

2004 Result: 24.00% Kerry, 75.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 29.63% Obama, 68.64% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.

Nevada

2004 Result: 47.88% Kerry, 50.47% Bush.

2008 Result: 55.15% Obama, 42.65% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.7% wins (99,708 wins ), Santorum: 0.3% wins (292 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
Rasmussen	19-Mar-12	19-Mar-12	500	4.5	52.0	36.0	O+16.0

New Hampshire

2004 Result: 50.24% Kerry, 48.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.13% Obama, 44.52% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 97.8% wins (97,834 wins ), Santorum: 2.2% wins (2,166 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
ARG	15-Mar-12	18-Mar-12	557	4.2	48.0	37.0	O+11.0

New Jersey

2004 Result: 52.92% Kerry, 46.24% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.27% Obama, 41.70% McCain.

14 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Santorum: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
Fairleigh Dickinson U	05-Mar-12	11-Mar-12	800	3.5	54.0	33.0	O+21.0
Quinnipiac	21-Feb-12	27-Feb-12	1396	4.6	52.0	34.0	O+18.0

New Mexico

2004 Result: 49.05% Kerry, 49.84% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.91% Obama, 41.78% McCain.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.8% wins (99,782 wins ), Santorum: 0.2% wins (218 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
Rasmussen	14-Feb-12	14-Feb-12	500	4.5	55.0	37.0	O+18.0

New York

2004 Result: 58.37% Kerry, 40.08% Bush.

2008 Result: 62.88% Obama, 36.03% McCain.

29 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Santorum: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
Siena	26-Feb-12	29-Feb-12	808	3.4	64.0	30.0	O+34.0

North Carolina

2004 Result: 43.58% Kerry, 56.02% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.69% Obama, 49.36% McCain.

15 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 84.8% wins (84,835 wins ), Santorum: 15.2% wins (15,165 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
PPP	08-Mar-12	11-Mar-12	804	3.5	49.0	44.0	O+5.0

North Dakota

2004 Result: 35.50% Kerry, 62.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.62% Obama, 53.25% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.

Ohio

2004 Result: 48.71% Kerry, 50.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.50% Obama, 46.91% McCain.

18 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Santorum: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
Marist	29-Feb-12	02-Mar-12	1504	2.5	50.0	36.0	O+14.0

Oklahoma

2004 Result: 34.43% Kerry, 65.57% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.35% Obama, 65.64% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.

Oregon

2004 Result: 51.35% Kerry, 47.19% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.75% Obama, 40.40% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.8% wins (99,849 wins ), Santorum: 0.2% wins (151 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
SurveyUSA	14-Mar-12	19-Mar-12	1615	2.5	49.3	39.5	O+9.8

Pennsylvania

2004 Result: 50.92% Kerry, 48.42% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.64% Obama, 44.29% McCain.

20 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 64.9% wins (64,863 wins ), Santorum: 35.1% wins (35,137 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
PPP	08-Mar-12	12-Mar-12	564	4.1	48.0	46.0	O+2.0
Quinnipiac	07-Mar-12	12-Mar-12	1256	2.8	45.0	44.0	O+1.0

Rhode Island

2004 Result: 59.42% Kerry, 38.67% Bush.

2008 Result: 63.13% Obama, 35.21% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.

South Carolina

2004 Result: 40.90% Kerry, 57.98% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.90% Obama, 53.87% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.

South Dakota

2004 Result: 38.44% Kerry, 59.91% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.75% Obama, 53.16% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 1.1% wins (1,098 wins ), Santorum: 98.9% wins (98,902 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
Neilson Brothers	15-Feb-12	17-Feb-12	559	4.2	33.0	45.0	S+12.0

Tennessee

2004 Result: 42.53% Kerry, 56.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.83% Obama, 56.90% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 11.3% wins (11,349 wins ), Santorum: 88.7% wins (88,651 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
Vanderbilt Poll	16-Feb-12	22-Feb-12	1508	3.0	38.0	42.0	S+4.0

Texas

2004 Result: 38.22% Kerry, 61.09% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.68% Obama, 55.45% McCain.

38 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.8% wins (817 wins ), Santorum: 99.2% wins (99,183 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
U Texas	08-Feb-12	15-Feb-12	529	4.3	37.0	51.0	S+14.0

Utah

2004 Result: 26.00% Kerry, 71.54% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.41% Obama, 62.58% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.

Vermont

2004 Result: 58.94% Kerry, 38.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 67.44% Obama, 30.44% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Santorum: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
Castleton Poll	11-Feb-12	22-Feb-12	800	3.5	60.0	31.0	O+29.0

Virginia

2004 Result: 45.48% Kerry, 53.68% Bush.

2008 Result: 52.63% Obama, 46.33% McCain.

13 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Santorum: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
PPP	20-Mar-12	20-Mar-12	500	4.5	53.0	39.0	O+14.0
Quinnipiac	13-Mar-12	18-Mar-12	1034	3.1	49.0	40.0	O+9.0
Marist	29-Feb-12	03-Mar-12	1245	2.8	54.0	32.0	O+22.0

Washington

2004 Result: 52.82% Kerry, 45.64% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.65% Obama, 40.48% McCain.

12 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.9% wins (99,927 wins ), Santorum: 0.1% wins (73 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
PPP	16-Feb-12	19-Feb-12	1264	2.8	52.0	40.0	O+12.0

West Virginia

2004 Result: 43.20% Kerry, 56.06% Bush.

2008 Result: 42.59% Obama, 55.71% McCain.

5 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.

Wisconsin

2004 Result: 49.70% Kerry, 49.32% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.22% Obama, 42.31% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 72.1% wins (72,058 wins ), Santorum: 27.9% wins (27,942 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	Santorum	Diff
Rasmussen	27-Feb-12	27-Feb-12	500	4.5	42.0	47.0	S+5.0
PPP	23-Feb-12	26-Feb-12	900	3.3	49.0	43.0	O+6.0

Wyoming

2004 Result: 29.07% Kerry, 68.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 32.54% Obama, 64.78% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Santorum assumed to win all elections.