| Obama | Romney |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 341 electoral votes | Mean of 197 electoral votes |
It’s been awhile since I’ve posted one of these. That analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 331 to 207 electoral votes and with a 99.9% probability of winning.
Some 23 new polls have trickled out since then. I’ll skip the details (you can get to the polling data from the big table below). With these new polls weighing in, a Monte Carlo analysis gives Obama 100,000 wins out of 100,000 simulated elections. This implies that, in an election held now, Obama would have a near-100% chance of winning. Obama has gained +10 electoral votes for an average of 341 to Romney’s 197.
Obama likely wins the “big three,” Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, as well as Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Virginia. Still no new polls in South Carolina, so the state is still blue based on the early December poll.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:
- 351 electoral votes with a 3.26% probability
- 352 electoral votes with a 2.86% probability
- 342 electoral votes with a 2.73% probability
- 361 electoral votes with a 2.68% probability
- 336 electoral votes with a 2.53% probability
- 357 electoral votes with a 2.22% probability
- 345 electoral votes with a 2.19% probability
- 337 electoral votes with a 2.11% probability
- 346 electoral votes with a 2.10% probability
- 335 electoral votes with a 2.10% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 100.0%, Romney wins 0.0%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 341.3 (19.4)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 196.7 (19.4)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 343 (302, 375)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 195 (163, 236)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 166 | |||
| Strong Obama | 116 | 282 | ||
| Leans Obama | 53 | 53 | 335 | |
| Weak Obama | 16 | 16 | 16 | 351 |
| Weak Romney | 10 | 10 | 10 | 187 |
| Leans Romney | 21 | 21 | 177 | |
| Strong Romney | 95 | 156 | ||
| Safe Romney | 61 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 0 | 0 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 8 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | Romney | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1* | 754 | 37.8 | 62.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AK | 3 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| AZ | 11 | 2 | 2812 | 47.8 | 52.2 | 4.7 | 95.3 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1* | 1744 | 40.4 | 59.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 3 | 3263 | 64.1 | 35.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 1* | 730 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 66.8 | 33.2 | ||
| CT | 7 | 1* | 435 | 57.5 | 42.5 | 98.7 | 1.3 | ||
| DE | 3 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| DC | 3 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| FL | 29 | 1 | 455 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 69.3 | 30.7 | ||
| GA | 16 | 1 | 1061 | 46.3 | 53.7 | 4.3 | 95.7 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 517 | 64.8 | 35.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| IL | 20 | 1* | 546 | 61.5 | 38.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| IN | 11 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| IA | 6 | 1 | 720 | 48.9 | 51.1 | 33.7 | 66.3 | ||
| KS | 6 | 1* | 442 | 45.0 | 55.0 | 7.5 | 92.5 | ||
| KY | 8 | 1* | 528 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 7.0 | 93.0 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1* | 542 | 41.1 | 58.9 | 0.3 | 99.7 | ||
| ME | 4 | 1* | 586 | 56.3 | 43.7 | 98.4 | 1.6 | ||
| MD | 10 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| MA | 11 | 4 | 1876 | 60.4 | 39.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 2 | 3160 | 60.4 | 39.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MN | 10 | 1* | 461 | 57.5 | 42.5 | 98.7 | 1.3 | ||
| MS | 6 | 1* | 717 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MO | 10 | 1* | 524 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 49.8 | 50.2 | ||
| MT | 3 | 1 | 445 | 46.1 | 53.9 | 12.2 | 87.8 | ||
| NE | 2 | 1* | 658 | 42.7 | 57.3 | 0.3 | 99.7 | ||
| NE1 | 1 | 1* | 269 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 55.7 | 44.3 | ||
| NE2 | 1 | 1* | 204 | 45.6 | 54.4 | 18.1 | 81.9 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 1* | 185 | 29.2 | 70.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| NV | 6 | 1* | 513 | 53.4 | 46.6 | 86.0 | 14.0 | ||
| NH | 4 | 1* | 446 | 55.6 | 44.4 | 95.0 | 5.0 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 1 | 1201 | 57.0 | 43.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NM | 5 | 1 | 455 | 60.4 | 39.6 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| NY | 29 | 1 | 1073 | 59.7 | 40.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 1* | 978 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 58.8 | 41.2 | ||
| ND | 3 | 1* | 480 | 41.3 | 58.8 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| OH | 18 | 4 | 3447 | 52.9 | 47.1 | 99.2 | 0.8 | ||
| OK | 7 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| OR | 7 | 1* | 464 | 54.7 | 45.3 | 92.3 | 7.7 | ||
| PA | 20 | 3 | 1359 | 54.5 | 45.5 | 99.0 | 1.0 | ||
| RI | 4 | 1* | 495 | 59.4 | 40.6 | 99.8 | 0.2 | ||
| SC | 9 | 1* | 1833 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 86.4 | 13.6 | ||
| SD | 3 | 1 | 442 | 44.3 | 55.7 | 4.3 | 95.7 | ||
| TN | 11 | 1 | 1221 | 48.2 | 51.8 | 18.7 | 81.3 | ||
| TX | 38 | 1 | 449 | 42.3 | 57.7 | 0.9 | 99.1 | ||
| UT | 6 | 1* | 688 | 33.0 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1 | 728 | 63.7 | 36.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 4 | 2965 | 53.5 | 46.5 | 99.6 | 0.4 | ||
| WA | 12 | 3 | 2011 | 57.3 | 42.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1* | 811 | 38.0 | 62.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| WI | 10 | 3 | 1915 | 55.4 | 44.6 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| WY | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
One of Romney’s most valuable arguments in the primaries was that he had the best chance of beating President Obama in the general election. This tends to disprove that argument – neither Romney nor Santorum has any reasonable chance of winning this election.
They might have done better if they had kept their mouths shut, but since neither felt compelled to do so, they have tended to prove their own incompetency for the job every time the open their mouths.
Every time Romney opens his trap I’m reminded of the most disingenuous of used car salesmen.
rhp6033,
Excellent point!
What’s actually quite sad is that the Republican’s only chance of winning in November would be if, some time this summer
(a) Iran successfully tested a nuclear bomb; and
(b) threatened to use it against Israel; and
(c) President Obama did nothing in response.
Since President Obama has stated, rather forcefully, that he has no intention of allowing any of those three things to happen, then the election is entirely in Obama’s hands.
The Republicans always wanted to go into an election as the incumbent during a war. Now their biggest fear is that President Obama will be a successful “war president”.
I’m pretty sure Obama will win a second term. It’s not the end of the world – we’ll all be OK.