Another Tuesday, another chance to raise a glass and have a laugh over the G.O.P. primary melee.
There have been four Republican primary polls taken in Illinois this year, and they were all taken in March. Here’s what they show:
- Chicago Tribune: 7-mar to 9-mar: Romney 35%, Santorum 31% (+4 Romeny)
- FOX Chicago News 14-mar: Romney 37%, Santorum 31% (+6 Romeny)
- Rasmussen 15-mar: Romney 41%, Santorum 32% (+9 Romeny)
- PPP 14-mar to 18-mar: Romney 41%, Santorum 31% (+15 Romney)
It is possible that the trend of Romney pulling ahead of Santorum is simple polling variability. Or, Santorum might be tanking, big time, from (1) alienating women through his War on Contraception™ and (2) alienating men through his War on Porn™, or both.
War is hell.
Anyway, this is an open thread, so have fun…but, you know, keep it Santorum-approved.
5:40: The polls in Illinois are closed and 15% of the vote is already counted (according to Google after typing “Illinois Primary” into its general search). So far, no signs of Romeny is not getting his ass, um, kicked by Santorum:
- Romney: 54.7%
- Santorum: 27.4%
- Paul: 10.4%
- Gingrich: 6.7%
6:06: As Michael points out in the comment thread…that was quick! The election is called for Romney. Since Illinois does proportional allocation, the interesting question is how badly will Santorum lose. (I was in transit when the election was called, so sorry about the late update.)
6:12: It isn’t impossible for Romney to win the 1,144 delegates before the August G.O.P. convention. It would require a change in momentum for Mitt:
Even after polls close on the last contest, held on June 26 in Romney-friendly Utah, according to an analysis by ABC News the former Massachusetts governor may still be short of 1,144 delegates — the magic number a candidate will need to secure the nomination.
Based on 2008 presidential-primary results, conventional-wisdom expectations, statewide 2010 primary results by county, and polls, a conservative estimate suggests Romney will end this primary season just shy of the 1,144 delegates he’ll need to win.
…or some help from G.O.P. superdelegates:
The Republican Party, however, has its own version of Democratic superdelegates: members of the GOP who will attend the Republican National Convention in Tampa this August as voting delegates, not having been elected or appointed, but included by virtue of their party roles. In nearly every state and territory, the GOP chairman, RNC committeeman, and RNC committeewoman hold this status.
In all, 123 of these superdelegates will attend the Tampa convention — enough to push Romney over the edge if a majority of them support him. Romney already enjoys the backing of 33 of these automatic RNC delegates, included in the 521 delegates ABC News estimates he has won.
Remember during the 2008 Democratic convention how the Republicans criticized the hell out of the Democratic nominating process because of the superdelegates?
Yeah…typical fucking G.O.P. hypocrisy!
6:37: Mmmmm…Mexican pasta! I enjoyed it without reservation….I must hate America.
6:40: According to my sources (namely, Google), just over half the votes are counted:
- Romney: 49.3%
- Santorum: 33.2%
- Paul: 9.1%
- Gingrich: 7.5%
It looks like Santorum is going to lose by double digits. Even so, how pathetic is Gingrich!
6:45: From the Twitterosphere:
Greg Mitchell @GregMitch
Santo more or less saying: I carried the nutcase parts of the state. So that makes him President of Nutmerica.
6:53: Santorum said something like we have a “government that is trying to dictate our lives.” A President Santorum would shrink that down to a “government that dictates our genitals.”
6:56: NBC estimates, “Romney netting 40-43 of the 54 delegates; 11-14 to Santorum.”
7:11: Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. is the apparent Dem. primary winner in his district.
7:14: “That’s really funny,” Mr. Romney said, laughing as he zeroed in on tempting images of meatloaf cakes. “I’d love to get a picture of Ann’s meatloaf cakes.” Not. Santorum. Approved.