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Why does the media allow McKenna to get away with this?

by Darryl — Wednesday, 7/18/12, 4:17 pm

There were some “legs” on the story of McKenna’s young staffer who made some unfortunate Tweets.

That’s the “big story” in the region’s media this week, but I think the media has missed the real story.

Kathlyn Ehl, who recently graduated from the UW, was hired by the McKenna campaign. But while she was a student, she created these cringe-worthy tweets:

Kathlyn Ehl @KathlynEhl
shut up and speak english #asians

and

Kathlyn Ehl @KathlynEhl
If it takes you an entire green light to walk in front of my car, GET A WHEELCHAIR #toooldtowalk

The tweets were brought to light on Slog.

Given how the press initially ignored stories like a County Executive candidate who punched his mother, and a Lands Commissioner engaging in sexual harassment, I figured the press would completely ignore this story…at least for a few days. In the mean time, the McKenna campaign would “disappear” the offending tweets and, perhaps, the staffer, without comment.

But the media has been over it. KUOW put it in their top-o-the-hour newscasts. Other media sources carried the KOMO story or the AP release. Even the Seattle Times had a story up by Monday evening.

Monday afternoon, the McKenna campaign did its own press release:

The tweets sent by a member of my campaign staff, Kathlyn Ehl, which were reported today were offensive and inappropriate. I am glad to see that she has apologized for her actions,” the statement reads. “The fact that she made the comments before joining my campaign does not make them any less hurtful to Asian Americans and the elderly. They were insensitive and wrong regardless of their context. She has done the right thing by apologizing. I am hopeful that she has learned a humbling lesson that will give her greater perspective about having charity in her heart when considering the challenges faced by others.

And by this morning, the offending policy assistant was gone, as was revealed by another McKenna campaign press release.

So, good on you, media, for even noticing. I’m not sure what the lesson is from that except, perhaps, that Anthony Weiner might still be in Congress if he had had the foresight to beat the shit out of someone instead of tweeting a photo of his bulging briefs.

But here’s what I think is the part of this story that should outrage the fuck out of the media (emphasis added):

Oddly, even though McKenna’s comments respond directly to a story we broke, his campaign did not send the statement to The Stranger. Instead, we obtained them from another source.

…and this…

I’ve posted [the McKenna campaign’s] statement—which, of course, the McKenna campaign didn’t send to The Stranger, even though we broke this story….

REALLY, McKenna??? Fucking REALLY?!? You want to be Governor of our state, and you persist in having a media “enemies list?”

This certainly paints him a small, petty man who lacks the temperament to be Governor.

McKenna believes he can pick who is and isn’t media and who is and isn’t a reporter.

What I don’t understand is why the area’s media allow McKenna to get away unscathed with this kind of bullshit.

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Candidate Answers 46th Legislative District Sarajane Siegfriedt

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 7/18/12, 8:00 am

My questions in bold; Sarajane Siegfriedt’s as is.

1) The state’s paramount duty is education. Do you feel the state is living up to that duty? If not, what needs to happen to live up to it?

Obviously, the state is not living up to its paramount duty. The judge in the McCleary case made this crystal clear, as did another judge in a similar case in the 70s. “Paramount duty” is most often interpreted as 50% of the state budget. We are currently devoting only about 42% of the $32 billion budget to Basic Education. (Basic Education was expanded by the legislature in the 2011 session.) We are $4 billion short. The “down payment” of $1 billion for K-12 Basic Education is due in the 2013-2015 biennial budget. We have to make up another $3 billion by 2018. As the Governor said and as both candidates for Governor failed to grasp, we have to raise taxes to pay for this.

2) Washington State voters recently rejected an income tax. Most of the revenue that the legislature might be able to pass is quite regressive. Will you push for revenue, and if so, how will you make sure the burdens don’t fall on the poorest Washingtonians?

I am not the only candidate or legislator who will refuse to vote to raise the sales tax. For a decade, I have long fought for social and economic justice as part of the Poverty Action Network. Three years ago, I joined with Fuse, the WA Budget & Policy Center and many others as the Our Economic Future Coalition to propose progressive plans to increase revenue. I support a capital gains tax, which falls on the top 3% and exempts sale of a primary residence. It’s time to revisit the Motor Vehicle Excise Tax. It’s been 10 years since Eyman’s initiative eliminated it, economic times have changed, huge budget cuts have been made and transit and ferries have suffered without the tax. The MVET is inherently a progressive tax. We also need a per-barrel tax on oil. The 60% tuition increases at our colleges and universities since 2009 constitute one of the worst taxes on the poor (especially community college and voc/tech) and they need to be reversed. This is a wealthy state, but our tax system doesn’t reflect that fact. Wealthy individuals and corporations need to pay their fair share.

3) There is a good chance that the State Senate and/or the Governor’s Mansion will be controlled by Republicans after the next election, and certainly most legislators will be more conservative than people who would be elected in a Seattle district. Given that how will you get your agenda passed?

I disagree with your premise. I believe we will be able to pass more progressive taxes for several reasons. One reason is that the challenge to Eyman’s I-1053 was ruled unconstitutional. I believe the Supreme Court will sustain this ruling before the beginning of the 2013 session. I believe the Democrats will retain a working majority in both houses, based in part on Obama’s popularity and the presence of the marijuana and equal marriage initiatives on the ballot. Second, education is widely supported by both parties and we have the McCleary ruling, which makes raising taxes imperative under any governor. Third, we have a bipartisan legislative task force that must come up with a plan to raise $1 billion for Basic Ed before the session starts—or else. Fourth, we have the House Democratic Caucus coming up with their own progressive plan to raise revenue. Fifth, we are far more likely now than in prior years to reform the system of tax exemptions, because the Grover Norquist pledge was broken by the Republicans last session when they sponsored and voted to repeal the Wall Street Bank tax exemption. There are 570 tax exemptions that lack a statement of legislative intent. This will change, and measurable outcomes for tax exemptions will be demanded.

4) You’re running in a race with many Democrats who share similar positions. What separates you from the rest of the field?

I’m the only candidate endorsed by the 46th District Democrats, the King County Democrats, and Rep. Phyllis Kenney, whom I hope to succeed. I have a record of fighting for social and economic justice on state issues. I have been focused on Olympia since I lobbied there for alcohol and drug treatment fulltime in the 2002 session. Afterward, I joined several boards, including Solid Ground, one of the largest social service agencies in King County. We recently produced 50 units of low-income family housing at Sand Point, with 50 more on the way. I am the only candidate who has been involved with the Democratic Party. Since 2004, my involvement has been with issues, writing platforms and more recently as Legislative Action Chair of the King County Democrats—their volunteer lobbyist, if you will. The job includes working with labor and all the major progressive coalitions and with legislators to form a consolidated legislative agenda. I track bills, send out legislative alerts and organize a lobby day. More than anything else, this position has given me the breadth of experience to make informed decisions on priority legislation in Olympia. Our number one priority has been progressive revenue reform, in order to pay for everything else, including education, the safety net, housing and the environment.

I have lived in the 46th District for the past 15 years, in Lake City. I’m involved in my district, with issues of homelessness and plans for transit-oriented pedestrian-friendly mixed-income communities at Lake City and at Northgate. I’m also the only candidate with an appointive public board position. I serve on the King County Board of Equalization, hearing appeals of property tax assessments. I’m the only candidate with an MBA and with a background in business. I’ve worked for AT&T and for Boeing (for seven years). I combine private sector and non-profit management experience with public service and extensive knowledge of state issues.

5) Seattle and King County give more to the state than they get back. Part of this is reasonable things like the cost of providing education and social services in rural and suburban areas, but part of it is a lack of respect for Seattle and King County with the legislature that treats us as an ATM. How will you make sure your district gets its fair share of revenue without harming education or social services throughout the state?

How can we argue that wealthy individuals and corporations should pay their fair share, meaning they pay more than they get back, when we don’t expect the wealthiest county in the state to do the same? There are several counties that cannot perform the basic functions of county government, as required by law, without substantial state assistance. Does that mean the other counties should have fewer requirements?

Fairness is in the eye of the beholder. I will fight for my district to get its fair share of transportation funds to maintain State Road 522, otherwise known as Lake City Way/Bothell Way, because it is a state highway carrying far more heavy truck traffic than before tolling began on the 520 bridge. The town of Kenmore, with 22,000 residents, is being forced to pay $68 million in road repairs on its “main street” that should be the state’s responsibility. The state is paying for the 520 bridge and most of the Hwy. 99 tunnel. When it comes to funding education and social services, two of the state’s top responsibilities, why is it inherently better or worse to fund a teacher or a foster children’s case manager in Seattle or in Yakima? In the end we must trust these state departments to allocate their funds on the basis of need, not silos or fiefdoms. (Trust, then audit?) Perhaps the founders of Kentucky and Massachusetts got it right when they named them “commonwealths,” not states. The name emphasizes an idea that has been neglected. We are all in this together.

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Poll Analysis: Romney gains…to 0.4%

by Darryl — Tuesday, 7/17/12, 7:41 pm


Obama Romney
99.6% probability of winning 0.4% probability of winning
Mean of 327 electoral votes Mean of 211 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 334 to 204 electoral votes in an election held now. Obama would be expected to win the hypothetical election with 100% probability.

Since then eight new polls have been released:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO Purple Poll 09-Jul 13-Jul 600 4.0 45 44 O+1
FL Purple Poll 09-Jul 13-Jul 600 4.0 45 48 R+3
FL Mason Dixon 09-Jul 11-Jul 800 3.5 46 45 O+1
IA PPP 12-Jul 15-Jul 1131 2.9 48 43 O+5
NH U NH 05-Jul 15-Jul 470 4.3 49 45 O+4
NY Siena 10-Jul 15-Jul 758 3.6 61 34 O+27
OH Purple Poll 09-Jul 13-Jul 600 4.0 48 45 O+3
VA Purple Poll 09-Jul 13-Jul 600 4.0 46 44 O+2

Colorado offers Obama a +1% edge over Romney, 45% to 44%. The larger trend looks good, but not great, for Obama:
ObamaRomney17Jun12-17Jul12Colorado

Two Florida polls split. Romney leads Obama by +3% in the Purple Strategies Poll, and Obama leads by +1 in the Mason-Dixon poll. The combined results of the five current polls suggest Obama would win now with a 68.4% probability. But the polling trends don’t favor either candidate. There is simply too much volatility:

ObamaRomney17Jun12-17Jul12Florida

Iowa gives Obama a +5% lead over Romney, and the lead in the past two polls. The trend is no comfort to either candidate. Obama has some good polls, they are almost all from one pollster (PPP):

ObamaRomney17Jun12-17Jul12Iowa

New Hampshire gives Obama a small lead over Romney by +4%, giving Obama a six-consecutive poll streak going back to early April.

Why do pollsters even bother with polling New York where Obama has a double-digit +27% lead over Romney? I guess it’s a near-free-bee while polling other state races. (Still…I’d rather see a new poll in, say, South Carolina.)

Ohio puts Obama over Romney by a tight +3%. That makes three in a row for Obama, going back to early June. The overall trend looks pretty favorable for Obama:

ObamaRomney17Jun12-17Jul12Ohio

Virginia has Obama up by +2% over Romney, and taking both July polls. On balance, the polling looks slightly better for Obama:
ObamaRomney17Jun12-17Jul12Virginia

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,646 times and Romney wins 354 times (including the 60 ties). Obama receives (on average) 327 (-7) to Romney’s 211 (+7) electoral votes. For that hypothetical election held now, Obama would have a 99.6% (-0.4%) probability of winning and Romney a 0.4% (+0.4%) probability of winning.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 7/17/12, 5:27 pm

DLBottle
Our summer and the political campaigns are all heating up. So please join us for a thirst-quenching evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking liberally meets every Tuesday night. Drinking Liberally Tacoma meets on Thursday. Also on Thursday, the Spokane Chapter is back!

With 226 chapters of Living Liberally, including eleven in Washington state and four more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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Overboard

by Lee — Tuesday, 7/17/12, 8:15 am

Scott Morgan writes in the Huffington Post about the Obama Administration’s continued war on medical marijuana:

I have no idea whether Obama himself is as enthusiastic about destroying medical marijuana as the folks at DOJ who’ve been doing the actual dirty work, but the answer to that question doesn’t matter. If Obama can blame Mitt Romney for what Bain Capital did while he was CEO, we can sure as hell blame Obama for what the Justice Department does when he’s the president.

He told us we could expect better than this. And yet the problem isn’t just that he failed to keep his word, or even that his attorney general rather blatantly lied to Congress about it, as awful as that is. The greatest disgrace in all of this is the perpetuation of a reprehensible policy that crushes the will of voters and the wisdom of legislatures, that stands between sick people and the medicine their doctors recommend, that hands control of cannabis back to cartels that kill people, and that creates a continuing war in our own communities when there could so easily be peace.

Obama once said that undermining medical marijuana laws was a poor use of resources, and he was right. But it’s not only a poor use of resources, it’s also just plain wrong. As a candidate, and as a leader, it’s time for our president to make things right.

Obama can start by replacing U.S. Attorney Melinda Haag, the most egregious of the DOJ officials undermining his previous promises to respect those who comply with state medical marijuana laws.

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Open Thread 7/17

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 7/17/12, 7:57 am

– I’m delighted Romney is now saying something in response to the question, but I’m having a tough time wrapping my head around this one. He’s going to keep his tax returns secret and hidden from public view because … Obama might find stuff?

– It may be the best thing for Seattle to get sued over excessive force by the police.

– McKenna’s aide’s anti-Asian and anti-elderly tweets.

– I keep forgetting to link to this set of basic political documents.

– Darryl and I have had some fun with #BainBookTitles.

– I love any podcast with Ken Tremendous.

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You Can’t Complain Until You Fix The Problem

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 7/16/12, 6:26 pm

This piece by Josh Feit about Patty Murray not wanting Super PAC’s in the 1st District race is basically fine. I don’t like Super PAC’s in general, but as long as they exist, I don’t mind them in primaries. But this struck me as particularly odd.

It’s grating enough when Democrats protest finance rules they object to by prescribing a holier than thou approach. Until you can actually reform finance rules, snooty protests just land you in the “L” column when you get outspent or outplayed.

I’m not sure how much it’s snooty to simply ask people to play nice. I like the rough and tumble of a primary, but plenty of people don’t. Still, the larger point is: Democrats, including Patty Murray, passed campaign finance reform. It was difficult and it took a lot of political capital. Then the Supreme Court invalidated it. Now it’ll take a Constitutional amendment or a different Supreme Court to fix things. Is Josh really saying until there’s a Constitutional amendment, Democrats can’t complain about the way things are. Not until they’ve fixed them? What the fuck is that?

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Open Thread 7/16

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 7/16/12, 8:04 am

– Team Mitt has a bit of a problem.

– It’s the rare feminist you will hear yelling, “Yeah, KILL HIM!” at a pee-wee football game.

– If the reason is to offer a balance of “both sides” then if nothing else, Mr Nethercutt provides a sterling example of how unbalanced one “side” is–even more so if he’s the best commentator the Inlander can get.

– You’ll be shocked to learn that Ron Paul people have some rather terrible ideas.

– The best thing to come out of the Romney I’m a CEO and not a CEO at the same time is John Cole’s pieces about Glenn Kessler.

– Obama and Kids.

– And kids on bikes

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The weekend feeding frenzy

by Darryl — Sunday, 7/15/12, 4:07 pm

Some hours after I posted the Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! there were interesting new developments in the 2012 Presidential race that can be appreciated best visually.

It began with this advertisement from the Obama campaign that had everyone all a-twitter:

David Kurtz at TPM, in particular, is awestruck by the ad:”One for the History Books” he titles a post, and at one point he comparing it to FDR LBJ’s Daisy ad (this one).

Locally, The Stranger‘s Paul Constant expressed some enthusiasm for the ad (his emphasis, not mine):

Holy fucking shit. This is the most brutal attack ad I’ve seen in a long, long time. It minces the hell out of Romney’s offshore fortunes and his record as a jobs exporter (in the private and public sectors). And it makes fun of Romney’s singing voice, turning his version of “America, the Beautiful” into a symbol of his warped view of patriotism

The Romney campaign hit back with an ad that can only be described as pathetic:

The thesis is that by hitting Mitt Romeny hard on the Bain thing, it somehow negates Obama’s “Hope and Change” message of the last campaign. The writers obviously try to confuse Obama, the President, and Obama, the candidate.

For over three years, Republicans have been warning about how President Obama was “changing America into something unrecognizable.” Now, the Romney camp is “warning” America that Obama is just like other candidates.

It is conceivable that this ad actually helps Obama, by defusing the “changing America into something unrecognizable” argument for folks who don’t recognize that campaigns are not the same thing as policy.

The weekend has brought out a plethora of politicos making the rounds on the talk shows, including bulldogs like Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Karl Rove—who has the naked audacity to “warn” Obama about negative campaigning. That’s hilarious!

But of all the interviews, the ones with Romney campaign senior adviser Ed Gillespie are the most interesting.

In an interview on CNN’s State of the Union, Gillespie stated (my emphasis):

“He is going to release them [2 years of tax returns], Candy, we’ve made that clear, and that’s the standard that Senator McCain, Republican nominee in the last election said was the relevant standard. It’s the standard that Senator John Kerry as the Democratic nominee said was the standard.”

First…he really ought to rethink citing the losers of the past two elections as the model. Just sayin’.

Another problem is that John Kerry did not say that was the standard. Gillespie was off by an order of magnitude. Kerry released 20 years of tax returns. So, about that “standard”….

And on NBC’s Meet the Press we get this gem when David Gregory asked about Mitt benefiting financially from Bain even while on leave:

He actually retired retroactively…

Watch the 00:01:57 clip:

The Twitterosphere has gone bananas with the hash tag #retroactively.

I’ll close by pointing out two things.

First, when the Romney campaign has to “explain” the subtly of Romney’s position during the “bad” Bain years by using a five syllable adverb, they’re not just losing the campaign battle, they’re fucking losing their base!

Secondly, I’ll point out again what a precarious position Romney is now in. We know he was drawing a six-figure salary for, apparently, being on leave; for being completely detached from decisions at Bain. But the media smells blood in that—they will relentlessly attempt to unearth evidence that Romney did make some big decisions. And they’ll probably find something.

But even if they don’t, Romney still has the (relatively unexamined) implications found in Gregory’s question: As the owner of and sole shareholder in Bain and other spin-off companies, Romney was at a minimum receiving salary and investment profit from outsourcing, layoffs, liquidations, the offshore tax havens and, apparently, disposal of fetuses.

That he solely owned Bain through 2001 is undisputed fact. It just makes him look like a weasel to absolve himself of all responsibility, while earning millions, because he was on leave. Or retired.&

&retroactively.

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Bird’s Eye View Contest

by Lee — Sunday, 7/15/12, 12:00 pm

Last week’s contest was won by milwhcky for his second in a row. It was the Octopus Car Wash in Albuquerque, where scenes from Breaking Bad were filmed.

This week’s is a location somewhere in Washington state, good luck!

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HA Bible Study

by Goldy — Sunday, 7/15/12, 7:12 am

Hosea 3:1-3
Once again the Lord spoke to me. And this time he said, “Hosea, fall in love with an unfaithful woman who has a lover. Do this to show that I love the people of Israel, even though they worship idols and enjoy the offering cakes made with fruit.”

So I paid fifteen pieces of silver and about ten bushels of grain for such a woman. Then I said, “Now you are mine! You will have to remain faithful to me, though it will be a long time before we sleep together.”

Discuss.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 7/13/12, 11:58 pm

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News profanity hypocrisy.

Pap: Republicans bury their heads in the sand on climate change.

Young Turks: Nutjobber Rep. Michele Bachmann, “Muslim Brotherhood infiltrating America”.

NAACP Convention:

  • Mitt Romney’s Black base.
  • Organs make political speeches better:
  • Slate News: Romney gets booed.
  • Young Turks: Joe Biden’s NAACP speech.
  • Young Turks: Mitt Romney NAACP speech conspiracy theories.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: David Brooks and “Meritocracies”.

ONN: Ron Paul makes campaign stop in whimsical jalopy.

Young Turks: Climate change or just hot weather?

Jimmy Kimmel: Boehner’s tears.

Ann Telnaes: Empowering women with choice and education.

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Mitt’s Olympic Trial:

  • Slate News: Is Mitt Romney lying about leaving Bain?
  • Young Turks: When did Mitt Romney leave Bain.
  • Vetting Mitt’s Veeps: Sarah Palin:
  • Ann Telnaes: Dick Cheney fundraiser.
  • Newsy: When did Mitt leave?
  • Young Turks: Obama campaign’s devastating, simple strategy to attack Romney.
  • Jenn: Mitt Romney is unworthy of the Presidency.
  • Maddow: Romney paid as a do-nothing President?!?
  • Bill Press: DNC on Romney’s ‘ludicrous and shocking’ claims about stimulus money
  • John Oliver: Mitt Romney is not boring.
  • Young Turks: Where in the world is Mitt’s Money.
  • Maddow: Ghosts of Bush Administration haunt Romney’s campaign.
  • Mitt’s Bain secret exposed!
  • Barely Political: An iPhone 4Mitt:
  • Daily Kos Radio: Bain-a-palooza
  • Thom and Pap: Romney caught Lying Again & Again & Again

Stephanie Miller: A Sarah Palin election sound bite.

Sam Seder: Rick Scott’s vision seems to be “Tuberculosis For Everyone!”

Thom: Do we need the Disclose Act or a Constitutional amendment?

Sam Seder: Ron and Rand’s internet manifesto.

Maddow: “Scott Brown claims Clinton, Biden call him!

Mark Fiore: The Godawful Particle.

Papantonio & Lizz Winstead: Lizz Free or Die.

Ann Telnaes: Boehner gets his health-care facts wrong.

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

LePage-turner:

  • America’s STUPIDEST Governor??? LePage (R-ME) doubles down on comparing ‘Obamacare’ to the Holocaust (via TalkingPointsMemo).
  • Young Turks: IRS=Gestapo.

Threatening the First Lady!?!

Greenman: Welcome to the rest of our lives:

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Maddow: Reprieve for Mississippi’s last abortion clinic.

Alyona: Whale Wars.

Young Turks: Obama’s “biggest mistake” during Charlie Rose interview.

Pap and Cliff Schecter on offshore banking scams:

  • Part I.
  • Part III.
  • Part III.

White House: West Wing Week.

Kimmel: This week in unnecessary censorship.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Flashes and crashes

by N in Seattle — Friday, 7/13/12, 9:42 pm

I’m sure I wasn’t the only person in the Puget Sound region who was shocked into wakefulness by a loud crash of thunder this morning. I was thrilled — in a positive sense — that it happened.

In my 11½ years as a Seattle resident, I recall exactly zero times when I’ve experienced a real, honest-to-god thunderstorm before today. On those very few occasions when we’ve had any lightning/thunder at all, it was always just a single flash and crash. And that one solitary event was often water-cooler fodder the next day.

That’s not how it was where I grew up. No, I’m not talking about Tornado Alley or any of those midwestern states where you could see that line of thunderstorms approaching for an hour or two before it hit. I’m from South Jersey (Exit 4, as we like to describe it). We had plenty of electrical storms there as well. The main difference was that we couldn’t see them coming as easily, since we had trees and hills and buildings there.

I love thunderstorms. Love the way the air seems to turn yellowish as the storm nears. Love to watch the sheets of rain as they pour down (under a non-conductive roof, that is). Once, when I lived in Pittsburgh, we sat on the front porch and saw an electrical transformer on a telephone pole across the street completely shorted out by a lightning hit … sparks, almost fireworks, and of course the neighborhood was suddenly without power.

I wonder whether very many Washingtonians know how to estimate how far away a lightning flash happens. It’s a simple formula, but why would anyone who grew up around here be familiar with it?

So, am I right or wrong about this? If you’re a Washington (or maybe just PacNW west of the Cascades) native, do you know how to calculate that distance? Do you even know that such an estimate is possible?

If you do know how to figure it, just say so; don’t reveal the formula. Wouldn’t want to let the other guys know about it too soon.

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2040 Doesn’t Seem Like That Far In The Future

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 7/13/12, 5:21 pm

I take Nick’s point about needing to get the operation up and running as quickly as possible. So yeah, it’s easier to get high speed rial in several segments (and would probably be the same for WA if we ever wanted Spokane-Seattle or Bellingham-Vancouver high speed rail) than just starting out DC-Boston. Get more of a buy in from places along the route. And get some people actually using it.

But again, 2040 doesn’t seem like it’s horribly far into the future.* Most big infrastructure projects are for the next generation.

[Read more…]

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Poll Analysis: No gains as Romney trails way behind

by Darryl — Friday, 7/13/12, 3:54 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 334 electoral votes Mean of 204 electoral votes

My previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Romney by 327 to 211 electoral votes, and with a 99.9% probability of winning an election held then.

Since then, eleven new polls covering nine states have been released:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA Field Poll 21-Jun 02-Jul 848 3.4 55 37 O+18
FL Rasmussen 09-Jul 09-Jul 500 4.5 45 46 R+1
ME Critical Insights 20-Jun 25-Jun 615 4.0 49 35 O+14
NM WeAskAmerica 09-Jul 10-Jul 1295 2.8 51 40 O+11
NC PPP 05-Jul 08-Jul 775 3.5 47 46 O+1
NC PNA 01-Jul 08-Jul 500 4.4 48 49 R+1
ND Rasmussen 10-Jul 11-Jul 400 5.0 36 51 R+15
PA WeAskAmerica 09-Jul 10-Jul 1227 2.8 47 40 O+7
VA PPP 05-Jul 08-Jul 647 3.9 50 42 O+8
WI Marquette 05-Jul 08-Jul 810 3.5 50.6 43.3 O+7.3
WI PPP 05-Jul 08-Jul 1057 3.3 50 44 O+6

California (+18%) and Maine (+14%) for Obama and North Dakota (+15%) for Romney are strongholds.

I probably shouldn’t be surprised any longer on how solid New Mexico is for Obama at +11%. The polling history backs the new poll up:
ObamaRomney13Jun12-13Jul12New Mexico

Weeks after the unsuccessful recall of their Republican Governor, Wisconsin seems to be holding for Obama. Both new polls have Obama’s lead just outside the margin of error:
ObamaRomney13Jun12-13Jul12Wisconsin

Romney goes up by +1 in this week’s Florida poll, but Obama still takes three of the four current polls for the state. Obama would be expected to win Florida right now with a 91% probability.

Obama and Romney split North Carolina this week at one poll apiece. In the past month of NC polls, Romney takes three and Obama takes two. The simulation analysis suggests that Romney would win the state (now) with a 59.5% probability.

Once again, a Pennsylvania poll puts Obama up. Obama has lead in both Pennsylvania polls taken over the past month. In fact, Obama has led in the past 14 consecutive PA polls—all the way back to early February.

Virginia gives Obama a +8% lead over Romney. But Romney lead by a smaller margin in a much bigger current poll. The two polls, taken together, have the race in a dead tie (Obama won 50,112 times, Romney, 49,888 times). It is difficult discern a solid trend. One could argue Obama maintains an advantage, and one can argue that Romney has turned the state around:

ObamaRomney13Jun12-13Jul12Virginia

So, what would happen if the presidential election was held today?

A Monte Carlo analysis of state head-to-head polls, using the rules of the Electoral College suggests that President Barack Obama would almost certainly beat Mitt Romney.

Now, Obama would receive a mean of 334 (+7) electoral votes to Romney’s 204 (-7). Of the 100,000 simulated elections, Obama won 99,976 times and Romney won 24 times.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]

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