HorsesAss.Org

Holy balls on toast, you guys. If we elect Obama some terrible things will happen. Iraq will be overwhelmed and Christians won’t be able to say a prayer even before school. Massive tax increases for the middle class. The Boy Scouts will shut down and by October 2012 we’ll — wait 2012?

Oh, I see. That was predictions from the last time Obama was on the ballot. None of them came true.

Look, I get that it’s difficult to make predictions. Especially when you’re up your own ass with a right wing ideology. But if you’re not good at making predictions then, um, don’t make predictions.

Until the end of the conventions, it was not uncommon to see a media article about how close the presidential race was at the time. If anything, the articles were based on national head-to-head polls, and generally showed Obama a point or two ahead of Romney.

Since the conventions, Obama has been gaining ground in the national polls. In fact, the last such poll that wasn’t Rasmussen that showed Romney with a lead was this Gallup Tracking poll from late August.

If you’ve followed my, or almost anyone else’s, analyses of state head-to-head polls it is no secret that Romney is in deep trouble. No matter what the national polls say, it is the electoral college (and, in a tie, the House…and, you know, sometimes the Supreme Court) that elects the President. The simulated electoral college contest has Romney losing consistently and badly this entire election season.

The reason appears to be that Obama is polling stronger in swing states. Credit for this has been attributed to a better-than-average economy in particular swing states, and to the Obama campaign’s early advertising blitz that started defining Romney even before he was the party’s nominee (and with a little help from Romney’s Republican opponents).

The other explanation, which is more of an amusement than a real explanation, is that the polls are all skewed! It’s attributed to the polling this year being “the worst it’s ever been” by political pundit and lower phalange fetishist Dick Morris.

Alternatively, it is a vast left wing media conspiracy!!!1!1! Politico has a nice write-up about Teh Great Polling Conspiracy of 2012. I think Josh Marshall summarized it best:

…having been through several of these cycles, if you’re theory is based on systemic error on the part of basically all pollsters, you’re in for a long election night.

So the following information can be read in two ways. If you think the polls, when taken en masse come out about right, on average, then I will present to you a measure of just how badly Romney is losing. If you are a Poll Truther, the following information provides solid evidence of just how skewed the polls are (if you presume Romney is really leading).

Here’s what I did. I took the results of last night’s analyses (umm…after the correction). And I reran the analysis, adding a bias in Romney’s favor to each poll included in the analysis. The bias (or skew) was a fixed percentage. I began an 0% and stepped up by 1% at a time through 10%. Here is a summary of the results for Obama’s median electoral votes with 95% confidence intervals:

The graph is clear…to eke out a win, Romney has to move the electorate across the board by a remarkable 6%. That is, he is 6% behind in the polling now. That is a larger margin than the 3.5% margin in the Real Clear Politics average of national polls. That’s because the math of the electoral college places more importance on certain states—and Romney need to do more to win those states.

To win with at least a 95% probability, Romney needs to shift things by 8%. To have the kind of lead that Obama now enjoys—with a solid 100% probability of winning—Romney needs a 10% shift.

Of course, this model is a bit simplified—I skew every poll for all states. It isn’t all states that have to be moved; rather it’s just a handful of “important states” that need moving. I mean, skewing Utah and Mississippi doesn’t really accomplish anything for Romney, and Massachusetts and D.C. aren’t going to be swung over no way, no how.

Here is the electoral map of a Romney victory scenario—presuming he moves voters in his favor by 6%:

Ohio and Pennsylvania plain gone—the polling now suggests they are out of reach for Romney even in this most extreme scenario where he shifts everything by 6%. Instead, a “Romeny + 6%” victory includes Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, and New Mexico. Oh…and Nebraska-2, which is tied when we remove the skew.

I’m not suggesting the election is over. But it looks like Romney has an almost insurmountable task ahead of him if he is to leave the rolls of the unemployed.

– The forest fires in Central and Eastern Washington are keeping students inside.

– I know in a few months we’ll look back at this and think how quaint it was. But Dreams of my Real Father feels like maybe peak wingnut.

– Unfortunately, these sort of things have real world consequences.

– Metro System Maps! [h/t]

– Sexy liberals came to Seattle.

– I’ve always said babies are smarter than Republicans.

– FYI, the Open Threads are going to be Monday-Wednesday-Friday for a while.

Last week’s contest was won by milwhcky. It was the town of Sierra Blanca, TX, where Fiona Apple was arrested by a “border” patrol for possession of hash.

This week’s contest is a random location somewhere on earth, good luck!

[HA Bible Study is on hiatus through the November election as we honor Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney by studying the scriptures of his Mormon religion.]

Doctrine and Covenants 130:12
I prophesy, in the name of the Lord God, that the commencement of the difficulties which will cause much bloodshed previous to the coming of the Son of Man will be in South Carolina.

Discuss.

1:02: I’m on the Rapid Ride going from Downtown to West Seattle. It smells like a new car, but stronger. I’ve smelled worse smells on the bus. I’m still downtown and so far it feels pretty much like any other ride. Maybe it’s because the Orca Card reader at my stop wasn’t up yet. Maybe it’s because the display for how many more minutes there are to go wasn’t up yet. In any event, I’m using the bus’s WiFi, so here goes.

1:05: All the doors open, although, as I say, the card reader wasn’t working yet, so it doesn’t feel like that’s an advantage.

1:06: And I’ve had my first random dude speaking to the driver through the light. Fuck you that guy.

1:11: I just typed something about how we’re on the Viaduct now, and got an error message. Lovely. Switching to ClearWire.

1:15: The views on the Viaduct and the West Seattle Bridge are quite nice. When it’s a Saturday, this is quite Rapid for real. Of course the real test will be Rush Hour on Monday and beyond.

1:19: First stop in West Seattle. I didn’t take the 54 enough to compare, but it feels better than the circuitous route it used to be.

1:24: The junction. 22 minutes feels about the same as before, maybe a bit quicker.

1:27: The person next to me says I shouldn’t use my wireless, because it’s really fast on the bus. I told him I got an error earlier, and he didn’t believe it. I don’t have to justify my WiFi device to you, random guy.

1:30: Morgan Junction.

1:31: I realized I’ve got used to the smell of the bus. Usually when it smells of homeless person piss, that’s something you can be thankful and maybe a bit worried about. With new bus small, I guess the same.

1:36: Ferry terminal. Whenever I go to Vashon via the bus, it feels like a crapshoot as to if the bus and the boat are well timed. With more frequent bus trips, I imagine it’ll feel like a crapshoot with better odds.

1:41: Westwood village. So fine route, but it doesn’t feel like that much of an improvement over the old. People who take it more often than I do will probably have a better sense of it.

Young Turks: on that Allen West ad.

In his own words:

The Professor and Senator Brown:

• Young Turks: Scott Brown has nothing…so he goes for TEH FORM!
• Maddow: Sen. Brown holds course with racial ploy.
• Sam Seder: Is the Scott Brown campaign desperate, or what?
• Scott Brown staffers do Indian war whoop and tomahawk chops to show their class and style.

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

The Pollster-Liberal-Media-Industrial Complex Conspiracy:

• The effect of Romney’s 47% statement on the polls (via TalkingPointsMemo).
• FAUX News Poll Trutherism—that must include their own polls showing Obama leading (via TalkingPointsMemo).
• Tweety: Poll self delusion syndrome.
• Young Turks: Dick “twinkle toes” Morris’ predictions.

MockTV: Eastwoodin’:

Jon on FAUX News’ hypocritical coverage of school lunch changes.

Latinos for Obama.

Thom: More of the Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Good ‘ol Tommy Thompson promises to ‘Do away with Medicare and Medicaid’ (via Crooks and Liars).

Willard!

• Young Turks: The Romney Torture Memo is leaked.
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Mitt Romney, “the taker”
• Gov. Romney’s record on education
• Sam Seder: Romney begs supporters to chant his name
• Flashback: Mitt Romney on harvesting companies for profits (via Political Wire).
• Thom: Mitt Romney explains Bain’s zombie economics in leaked ‘harvest’ video
• Thom and Pap: on Romney “harvesting” America’s middle class.
• Ann Telnaes: Romney says uninsured have access to health care.
• Bill Maher tries the new iPhone Romni app.
• Sam Seder: Shrub gets higher favorability than Willard!
• Mitt’s new health care plan
• Pap: Romney is mentally falling apart.
• Kimmel: on Mitt Romney’s “Too many Americans” ad.
• Maddow: Romney campaign puts the ‘mess’ in messaging.
• Mitt Romney: “Those people”.
• Maddow: Mitt Romney wonders why airplane windows don’t roll down.
• Bashir: Whose campaign is it anyway?
• Mitt Romney was an ineffective Governor.
• Jon: Mitt Romney gets dumber as election approaches.
• Mark Fiore: Willard’s World!
• Ann Telnaes: Ann Romney addresses conservative critics.
• Romney’s sorry Sunday.
• Ann Telnaes: Romney’s self-inflicted wounds.

Thom with even more Good, Bad and Very, Very Ugly.

Pap: Republicans crippled by fear.

Obama mask dance.

Crazy Akin:

• SlateTV: Todd Akin ignores dropout deadline.
• Buzz60: Todd Akin doesn’t think Clarie McCaskill was ladylike in debate.
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Sen. Claire McCaskill is not “Ladylike”
• Akin TV: Tod Akin’s top ten crazy moments…and so much more.

Cenk predicts Obama will win.

Jon on The Labor Dispute (via Crooks and Liars).

Obama with some straight talk:

Mock the Vote:

• Samuel L. Jackson: Wake the Fuck Up!
• Young Turks: On Samuel L. Jackson’s video.
• OneMinuteNews: Samuel L. Jackson’s new story.
• Register and vote.
• Thom: The G.O.P. is turning in fraudulent voter registration forms.
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Republican voter fraud.
• Ed and Pap: Voter suppression tactics show GOP’s desperation
• Celebrities fucken’ ROCK THE VOTE.
• Young Turks: Republicans and voter fraud.

White House: West Wing Week.

Young Turks: Rep. Gohmert’s bizarre Ottoman Empire conspiracy theory.

Sharpton: The G.O.P.’s new idea…Obama lies.

SlateTV: Social media and the Presidential debates.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

I’m just got off my last free ride I’ll ever take on Metro (provided there isn’t another policy change, and I don’t start sneaking on). For me as a supporter of the elimination of the free ride area, and a Puget Pass holder, it’ll hopefully be fine. And I think it’ll be good for the county too. But it will probably take some getting used to.

So, it’ll probably be a bit longer in the mornings, at least for a while, while drivers and passengers sort it out. But 3rd Ave will still be nice. And for the rest of the county, not having to figure out if it’s pay as you enter or leave will be good.

I understand that the Internet is awful. But for serious, this is disgusting. First off, as Tate notes, “The refs made the call not me.” So yeah, your anger is directed at the wrong person.

But even if the anger were focused like a laser at the right place, don’t call anyone a nigger or a cunt. Don’t wish anyone were raped.

I don’t know why this is difficult for some people. I believe in a rough and tumble debate (the other day I called some people shitheads). But racist and sexist shit is just stupid. And even random sports fans on the Internet can do better.

– The map for the 7 proposed Seattle districts does a better job of keeping the downtown area in one district than the state or county districts.

– I have not finished reading the Living Under Drones report, but so far, it’s pretty awful.

– There will still be blown calls, but the NFL refs will be back, and will be significantly better than the old ones.

– The 36th is an interesting race.

– People in swing states don’t like bad policy either.

– Those forest fires fucked up the air.

In 1995, there was a proposal to elect the Seattle City Council by districts. Mostly, it was on the ballot because Tom Stewart was a jackass (pdf). That said, the way we elect the city council is made of stupid. There’s no reason to have 9 at large districts. It means downtown and poorer areas are underrepresented on the council, and it means that communities of color and other groups that are geographically grouped have a tougher time electing people.

So, while I would prefer all district elections, I can see myself supporting a proposal to have some districts and some at large representatives if it gets on the ballot. Still, the people running it don’t seem like good people. The only one I know of is John Fox who has been on the wrong side of a lot of issues. Most recently he helped kill decent transit in this town because he didn’t like the tax structure, but whoops, forgot to ask the legislature to give us a more equitable way to pay for it. The rest of them seem worse.

The group, which will announce its plans in a press conference tomorrow morning, is headed up by three business representatives and one low-income housing activists [sic]. The business reps are Faye Garneau, director of the Aurora Avenue Merchants Association, who fought for years against bus lanes on Aurora; Fremont Dock owner Suzie Burke, who fought, most recently, against a bike lane on Stone Way in Fremont; Eugene Wasserman, one of the plaintiffs suing to stop the city from completing the “Missing Link” of the Burke-Gilman Trail; and Seattle Displacement Coalition founder John Fox, who has steadfastly fought against pro-density legislation, from Yesler Terrace to Roosevelt to, well, the entire city.

So, maybe I’ll support districts. But if these people think it’ll give them what they want, maybe I’ll have to reconsider.

That’s the phrase Josh Marshall used to describe this clip:

I couldn’t help noticing a loss of dignity over at FOX News as well….