by Darryl, 09/28/2012, 3:44 PM

Rasmussen Reports released a new poll today that shows former Rep. Jay Inslee (D) barely leading Washington Attorney General Rob McKenna (R) in the Washington state Governor’s race. The poll of 500 people (4.5 M.O.E), taken on Wednesday, has Inslee up 46% to 45%.

Inslee has now led in the last four consecutive polls. The last time McKenna led was in a SurveyUSA poll from mid-July.

In the two previous September polls, Inslee has led by 44% to 41% and 49% to 44%. The current poll might signal that the race is tightened…alternatively, the variability we see is simply sampling error.

To assess the state of the race, I performed a Monte Carlo analysis using a million simulated elections using the sample size and proportions found only in today’s Rasmussen poll. Inslee won 558,701 times and McKenna won 428,130 times. This suggests that, if the race was held today, we could expect Inslee to win with a 56.6% probability. Here is the distribution of electoral votes:

Rasmussen-Sep

If you believe the race has been stable over the past couple of weeks, we can combine the last two September polls. Now, Inslee takes 761,308 wins to McKenna’s 231,884 wins. The evidence from the past two weeks suggests that Inslee would have a 76.7% probability of coming out ahead in an election held now:

Two-Sep

In other polling news, Survey USA released a new poll in Washington’s 6th district. The poll of 628 likely voters taken last Friday through Sunday finds Derek Kilmer (D) leading Bill Driscoll (R) by 52% to 37%.

The seat is currently held by Rep. Norman Dicks (D) who is retiring at the end of this term.

12 Responses to “Poll: Inslee leads McKenna, 46% to 45%”

1. rhp6033 spews:

Dang, that’s too close for comfort. I wonder if Inslee can get McKenna to express his real feelings publically?

2. Serial Conservative spews:

I think Inslee’s TV ads are better.

Yesterday I received two pieces of mail from the McKenna campaign. That can’t be cheap.

3. Puddybud spews:

Those old men around the table ads hit home. Jay’s “record” of being an Obummer yes man speaks for itself.

4. Puddybud spews:

Wait a minute… Rasmussen?

Oh yeah he’s the most accurate pollster out there, no matter what the leftist whackamoles say!

5. wharfrat spews:

@4 Rasmussen, wasn.t he the guy who had Sharon Angle up by 6 a couple of days before Harry Reid skunked her?

6. MikeBoyScout spews:

ZOMG!
Skew!

7. N in Seattle spews:

Yay, Derek Kilmer!!

He’s a great guy and the most dedicated legislator around. WA-06 will be extraordinarily well represented in Congress.

8. Michael spews:

Go, Kilmer!

9. Chris spews:

Thank god for those “Republican Rob McKenna is not who he says he is ads” I would not have known he is a Republican without it. Him saying it in his own ads and it being stated on the ballot is just not enough. It also brings up shocking information like Republican Rob Mckenna campaigning for a Republican who would have ever guessed that Republican Rob Mckenna would campaign for a Republican. It also is a completely honest ad campaign that doesnt just rely on bullshit information, like meeting minutes to make its claim. I can say I shit diamonds at a meeting. and it would be in the minutes doesnt make it true.

10. spyder spews:

i’ve been gone so long that the light looks right…
speaking of the ad with the old grumpy white dudes sitting around a table in a cozy little diner: that appears to be McKenna’s sole demographic, he is just another old grumpy white dude. A pool of old grumpy white dudes, all of whom appear to be senior citizens, just aren’t the kind of people who would own small businesses (unless they are wheat and apple growers; in which case they live on Federal and state corporate welfare).

Here we are some 36 days to the election and i still have zero idea on how Rob will balance the budget and improve schools at the same time.

11. Mrs. Rabbit spews:

11. Spyder: They look like grumpy rough hewn Eastern Washington dudes, with their weather beaten rough complexions they might be farmers on the dole.

Farmers on the dole high and owe the dairy o’ the right wing farmers on the dole :)

12. Liberal Scientist is a Dirty Fucking Socialist Hippie spews:

Farmers on the dole high and owe the dairy o’ the right wing farmers on the dole :)

Mrs R! Did you break into Roger’s liquor? Be careful with that stuff – POWERFUL!