Obama versus Romney using polls from 06-Sep-12 to 27-Sep-12


Alabama

2004 Result: 36.84% Kerry, 62.46% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.74% Obama, 60.32% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.2% wins (249 wins ), Romney: 99.8% wins (99,751 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Capital Survey Research Center 13-Aug-12 16-Aug-12 452 4.6 35.4 54.0 R+18.6


Alaska

2004 Result: 35.52% Kerry, 61.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 37.89% Obama, 59.43% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Romney assumed to win all elections.



Arizona

2004 Result: 44.40% Kerry, 54.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 45.11% Obama, 53.63% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 0.7% wins (686 wins ), Romney: 99.3% wins (99,314 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 25-Sep-12 25-Sep-12 500 4.5 42.0 52.0 R+10.0
Purple Poll 15-Sep-12 19-Sep-12 600 4.0 45.0 48.0 R+3.0
PPP 07-Sep-12 09-Sep-12 993 3.1 44.0 53.0 R+9.0


Arkansas

2004 Result: 44.55% Kerry, 54.31% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.86% Obama, 58.72% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Talk Business-Hendrix College 17-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 2228 2.0 34.5 55.5 R+21.0


California

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 44.36% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.01% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

55 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPIC 09-Sep-12 16-Sep-12 995 4.4 53.0 39.0 O+14.0
Field Poll 06-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 891 3.4 58.0 34.0 O+24.0
SurveyUSA 09-Sep-12 11-Sep-12 524 4.3 57.4 34.9 O+22.5


Colorado

2004 Result: 47.02% Kerry, 51.69% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.66% Obama, 44.71% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

9 polls

Obama: 96.2% wins (96,215 wins ), Romney: 3.8% wins (3,785 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Gravis Marketing 21-Sep-12 22-Sep-12 765 3.4 50.2 45.5 O+4.7
PPP 20-Sep-12 23-Sep-12 940 3.2 51.0 45.0 O+6.0
Purple Poll 15-Sep-12 19-Sep-12 600 4.0 48.0 45.0 O+3.0
Marist 16-Sep-12 18-Sep-12 971 3.1 50.0 45.0 O+5.0
Rasmussen 17-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 500 4.5 45.0 47.0 R+2.0
Quinnipiac 11-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 1497 3.0 48.0 47.0 O+1.0
ARG 10-Sep-12 12-Sep-12 600 4.0 49.0 47.0 O+2.0
SurveyUSA 09-Sep-12 12-Sep-12 615 4.0 47.0 46.0 O+1.0
Keating 10-Sep-12 11-Sep-12 503 4.4 49.0 44.0 O+5.0


Connecticut

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 43.95% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.59% Obama, 38.22% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 24-Sep-12 26-Sep-12 801 3.5 54.0 41.0 O+13.0
U CT 11-Sep-12 16-Sep-12 508 4.4 53.0 32.0 O+21.0


Delaware

2004 Result: 53.35% Kerry, 45.75% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.94% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Obama assumed to win all elections.



D.C.

2004 Result: 89.18% Kerry, 9.34% Bush.

2008 Result: 92.46% Obama, 6.53% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Heart+Mind Strategies 26-Jul-12 29-Jul-12 100 --- 83.0 11.0 O+72.0


Florida

2004 Result: 47.09% Kerry, 52.10% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.03% Obama, 48.22% McCain.

29 Electoral votes.

15 polls

Obama: 98.5% wins (98,479 wins ), Romney: 1.5% wins (1,521 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
InsiderAdvantage 24-Sep-12 24-Sep-12 540 4.1 49.0 46.0 O+3.0
PPP 20-Sep-12 23-Sep-12 861 3.3 50.0 46.0 O+4.0
Quinnipiac 18-Sep-12 24-Sep-12 1162 3.0 53.0 44.0 O+9.0
WA Post 19-Sep-12 23-Sep-12 769 4.5 51.0 47.0 O+4.0
ARG 20-Sep-12 22-Sep-12 600 4.0 50.0 45.0 O+5.0
Mason-Dixon 17-Sep-12 19-Sep-12 800 3.5 48.0 47.0 O+1.0
WeAskAmerica 18-Sep-12 18-Sep-12 1230 2.8 49.1 45.5 O+3.6
Purple Poll 15-Sep-12 19-Sep-12 600 4.0 47.0 48.0 R+1.0
FOX News 16-Sep-12 18-Sep-12 829 3.0 49.0 44.0 O+5.0
Gravis Marketing 15-Sep-12 16-Sep-12 1728 2.5 47.1 47.7 R+0.6
Rasmussen 12-Sep-12 12-Sep-12 500 4.5 48.0 46.0 O+2.0
McLaughlin 11-Sep-12 12-Sep-12 600 4.0 43.8 47.7 R+3.9
Marist 09-Sep-12 11-Sep-12 980 3.1 49.0 44.0 O+5.0
McLaughlin 09-Sep-12 10-Sep-12 600 4.0 47.0 50.0 R+3.0
SurveyUSA 07-Sep-12 09-Sep-12 596 4.1 48.2 44.5 O+3.7


Georgia

2004 Result: 41.37% Kerry, 57.97% Bush.

2008 Result: 46.99% Obama, 52.20% McCain.

16 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (29 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (99,971 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
InsiderAdvangage 18-Sep-12 18-Sep-12 483 4.5 35.0 56.0 R+21.0


Hawaii

2004 Result: 54.01% Kerry, 45.26% Bush.

2008 Result: 71.85% Obama, 26.58% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 13-Oct-11 16-Oct-11 568 4.1 59.0 32.0 O+27.0


Idaho

2004 Result: 30.26% Kerry, 68.38% Bush.

2008 Result: 36.10% Obama, 61.53% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Romney assumed to win all elections.



Illinois

2004 Result: 54.82% Kerry, 44.48% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.78% McCain.

20 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (99,972 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (28 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Southern Illinois U 04-Sep-12 10-Sep-12 1261 2.8 47.1 33.8 O+13.3


Indiana

2004 Result: 39.26% Kerry, 59.94% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.95% Obama, 48.91% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.7% wins (722 wins ), Romney: 99.3% wins (99,278 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Bellweather Research 19-Sep-12 20-Sep-12 800 3.5 40.0 52.0 R+12.0


Iowa

2004 Result: 49.23% Kerry, 49.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.93% Obama, 44.39% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Obama: 98.3% wins (98,254 wins ), Romney: 1.7% wins (1,746 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 24-Sep-12 26-Sep-12 754 3.6 51.0 44.0 O+7.0
ARG 20-Sep-12 23-Sep-12 600 4.0 51.0 44.0 O+7.0
Rasmussen 19-Sep-12 19-Sep-12 500 4.5 44.0 47.0 R+3.0
Marist 16-Sep-12 18-Sep-12 898 3.3 50.0 42.0 O+8.0


Kansas

2004 Result: 36.62% Kerry, 62.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.65% Obama, 56.61% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 18-Nov-11 22-Nov-11 510 4.4 39.0 47.6 R+8.6
SurveyUSA 10-Nov-11 11-Nov-11 800 3.5 31.4 56.3 R+24.9


Kentucky

2004 Result: 39.69% Kerry, 59.55% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.17% Obama, 57.40% McCain.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.6% wins (590 wins ), Romney: 99.4% wins (99,410 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 11-Sep-12 13-Sep-12 606 4.1 39.0 53.0 R+14.0


Louisiana

2004 Result: 42.22% Kerry, 56.72% Bush.

2008 Result: 39.93% Obama, 58.56% McCain.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.3% wins (307 wins ), Romney: 99.7% wins (99,693 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Clarus Research Group 06-Oct-11 08-Oct-11 602 4.0 37.0 53.0 R+16.0


Maine

2004 Result: 53.57% Kerry, 44.58% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.67% Obama, 40.36% McCain.

2 Electoral votes. Maine allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

2 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 17-Sep-12 18-Sep-12 804 3.5 55.0 39.0 O+16.0
Maine PRC 15-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 856 3.4 53.5 37.3 O+16.2


Maine-1

2004 Result: 43.00% Kerry, 55.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.51% Obama, 37.69% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 99.9% wins (99,948 wins ), Romney: 0.1% wins (52 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Maine PRC 15-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 445 --- 58.7 33.9 O+24.8


Maine-2

2004 Result: 46.00% Kerry, 52.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.61% Obama, 43.35% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 84.3% wins (84,257 wins ), Romney: 15.7% wins (15,743 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Maine PRC 15-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 410 --- 47.8 41.0 O+6.8


Maryland

2004 Result: 55.91% Kerry, 42.93% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.47% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Gonzales Res 17-Sep-12 23-Sep-12 813 3.5 55.0 36.0 O+19.0


Massachusetts

2004 Result: 61.94% Kerry, 36.78% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.80% Obama, 35.99% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 24-Sep-12 24-Sep-12 500 4.5 55.0 40.0 O+15.0
WBUR 15-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 507 4.4 59.0 31.0 O+28.0
UMass-Lowell 13-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 497 5.5 59.0 36.0 O+23.0
Suffolk 13-Sep-12 16-Sep-12 600 4.0 63.5 30.5 O+33.0
PPP 13-Sep-12 16-Sep-12 876 3.3 57.0 39.0 O+18.0
WNEU 06-Sep-12 13-Sep-12 444 4.6 60.0 38.0 O+22.0


Michigan

2004 Result: 51.23% Kerry, 47.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.43% Obama, 40.96% McCain.

16 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (99,999 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (1 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 20-Sep-12 20-Sep-12 500 4.5 54.0 42.0 O+12.0
Detroit News 15-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 600 4.0 52.0 37.8 O+14.2
CNN 14-Sep-12 18-Sep-12 754 3.5 52.0 44.0 O+8.0
MRG 10-Sep-12 15-Sep-12 600 4.0 47.5 42.3 O+5.2
Baydoun 12-Sep-12 12-Sep-12 1156 2.9 45.5 43.7 O+1.8
EPIC/MRA 08-Sep-12 11-Sep-12 600 4.5 47.0 37.0 O+10.0


Minnesota

2004 Result: 51.09% Kerry, 47.61% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.06% Obama, 43.82% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 99.5% wins (99,523 wins ), Romney: 0.5% wins (477 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Mason-Dixon 17-Sep-12 19-Sep-12 800 3.5 48.0 40.0 O+8.0
PPP 10-Sep-12 11-Sep-12 824 3.4 51.0 44.0 O+7.0
SurveyUSA 06-Sep-12 09-Sep-12 551 4.3 49.6 40.4 O+9.3


Mississippi

2004 Result: 39.75% Kerry, 59.44% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.00% Obama, 56.18% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 04-Nov-11 06-Nov-11 796 3.5 36.0 54.0 R+18.0


Missouri

2004 Result: 46.10% Kerry, 53.30% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.29% Obama, 49.43% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 9.5% wins (9,471 wins ), Romney: 90.5% wins (90,529 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Chilenski Strategies 20-Sep-12 20-Sep-12 817 3.4 44.3 50.2 R+5.9
Rasmussen 11-Sep-12 11-Sep-12 500 4.5 45.0 48.0 R+3.0


Montana

2004 Result: 38.56% Kerry, 59.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 47.25% Obama, 49.52% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Obama: 3.4% wins (3,358 wins ), Romney: 96.6% wins (96,642 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Mason-Dixon 17-Sep-12 19-Sep-12 625 4.0 42.0 51.0 R+9.0
PPP 10-Sep-12 11-Sep-12 656 3.8 45.0 50.0 R+5.0


Nebraska

2004 Result: 32.68% Kerry, 65.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.60% Obama, 56.53% McCain.

2 Electoral votes. Nebraska allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

1 poll

Obama: 1.3% wins (1,258 wins ), Romney: 98.7% wins (98,742 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Wiese Res 17-Sep-12 20-Sep-12 800 3.5 40.0 51.0 R+11.0


Nebraska-1

2004 Result: 36.00% Kerry, 63.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.34% Obama, 54.09% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 10.6% wins (10,636 wins ), Romney: 89.4% wins (89,364 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 22-Mar-12 25-Mar-12 432 --- 41.0 49.0 R+8.0


Nebraska-2

2004 Result: 38.00% Kerry, 60.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.96% Obama, 48.76% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 49.9% wins (49,870 wins ), Romney: 50.1% wins (50,130 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Wiese Res 17-Sep-12 20-Sep-12 400 4.9 44.0 44.0 0.0


Nebraska-3

2004 Result: 24.00% Kerry, 75.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 29.63% Obama, 68.64% McCain.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 22-Mar-12 25-Mar-12 319 --- 32.0 57.0 R+25.0


Nevada

2004 Result: 47.88% Kerry, 50.47% Bush.

2008 Result: 55.15% Obama, 42.65% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Obama: 94.8% wins (94,808 wins ), Romney: 5.2% wins (5,192 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
ARG 20-Sep-12 23-Sep-12 600 4.0 51.0 44.0 O+7.0
NV Retailers 19-Sep-12 20-Sep-12 500 4.4 46.0 46.0 0.0
PPP 18-Sep-12 20-Sep-12 501 4.4 52.0 43.0 O+9.0
Rasmussen 18-Sep-12 18-Sep-12 500 4.5 47.0 45.0 O+2.0
CNN 14-Sep-12 18-Sep-12 741 3.5 49.0 46.0 O+3.0


New Hampshire

2004 Result: 50.24% Kerry, 48.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.13% Obama, 44.52% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 63.5% wins (63,521 wins ), Romney: 36.5% wins (36,479 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Rasmussen 18-Sep-12 18-Sep-12 500 4.5 45.0 48.0 R+3.0
ARG 15-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 463 4.5 48.0 47.0 O+1.0
U NH 04-Sep-12 10-Sep-12 592 4.0 45.0 40.0 O+5.0


New Jersey

2004 Result: 52.92% Kerry, 46.24% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.27% Obama, 41.70% McCain.

14 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Monmouth 19-Sep-12 23-Sep-12 613 4.0 52.0 37.0 O+15.0
Philadelphia Inquirer 09-Sep-12 12-Sep-12 600 4.0 51.0 37.0 O+14.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 06-Sep-12 12-Sep-12 706 3.8 52.0 38.0 O+14.0


New Mexico

2004 Result: 49.05% Kerry, 49.84% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.91% Obama, 41.78% McCain.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.8% wins (99,766 wins ), Romney: 0.2% wins (234 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 07-Sep-12 09-Sep-12 1122 2.9 53.0 42.0 O+11.0


New York

2004 Result: 58.37% Kerry, 40.08% Bush.

2008 Result: 62.88% Obama, 36.03% McCain.

29 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Quinnipiac 04-Sep-12 09-Sep-12 1486 2.5 62.0 34.0 O+28.0


North Carolina

2004 Result: 43.58% Kerry, 56.02% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.69% Obama, 49.36% McCain.

15 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Obama: 68.2% wins (68,203 wins ), Romney: 31.8% wins (31,797 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Civitas 18-Sep-12 19-Sep-12 600 4.0 49.0 45.0 O+4.0
Purple Poll 15-Sep-12 19-Sep-12 600 4.0 48.0 46.0 O+2.0
High Point 08-Sep-12 18-Sep-12 448 4.7 48.0 44.0 O+4.0
Rasmussen 13-Sep-12 13-Sep-12 500 4.5 45.0 51.0 R+6.0
PPP 07-Sep-12 09-Sep-12 1087 3.0 49.0 48.0 O+1.0


North Dakota

2004 Result: 35.50% Kerry, 62.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.62% Obama, 53.25% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 94.6% wins (94,564 wins ), Romney: 5.4% wins (5,436 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
FOX News 16-Sep-12 18-Sep-12 1009 3.0 49.0 42.0 O+7.0


Ohio

2004 Result: 48.71% Kerry, 50.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.50% Obama, 46.91% McCain.

18 Electoral votes.

12 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Gravis Marketing 21-Sep-12 22-Sep-12 594 4.3 45.3 44.3 O+1.0
Quinnipiac 18-Sep-12 24-Sep-12 1162 3.0 53.0 43.0 O+10.0
WA Post 19-Sep-12 23-Sep-12 759 4.5 52.0 44.0 O+8.0
Purple Poll 15-Sep-12 19-Sep-12 600 4.0 48.0 44.0 O+4.0
FOX News 16-Sep-12 18-Sep-12 1009 3.0 49.0 42.0 O+7.0
Ohio Poll 13-Sep-12 18-Sep-12 861 3.3 51.0 46.0 O+5.0
McLaughlin 13-Sep-12 15-Sep-12 600 4.0 46.9 44.0 O+2.9
Rasmussen 12-Sep-12 12-Sep-12 500 4.5 47.0 46.0 O+1.0
ARG 10-Sep-12 12-Sep-12 600 4.0 48.0 47.0 O+1.0
Marist 07-Sep-12 12-Sep-12 979 3.1 50.0 43.0 O+7.0
PPP 07-Sep-12 09-Sep-12 1072 3.0 50.0 45.0 O+5.0
Gravis Marketing 07-Sep-12 08-Sep-12 1548 2.7 47.3 43.2 O+4.1


Oklahoma

2004 Result: 34.43% Kerry, 65.57% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.35% Obama, 65.64% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SoonerPoll 26-Jul-12 14-Aug-12 495 --- 29.0 58.0 R+29.0


Oregon

2004 Result: 51.35% Kerry, 47.19% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.75% Obama, 40.40% McCain.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 93.7% wins (93,714 wins ), Romney: 6.3% wins (6,286 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
SurveyUSA 10-Sep-12 13-Sep-12 552 4.3 49.5 40.7 O+8.9


Pennsylvania

2004 Result: 50.92% Kerry, 48.42% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.64% Obama, 44.29% McCain.

20 Electoral votes.

8 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Quinnipiac 18-Sep-12 24-Sep-12 1162 3.0 54.0 42.0 O+12.0
Franklin & Marshall 18-Sep-12 23-Sep-12 392 4.9 52.0 43.0 O+9.0
Susquehanna 18-Sep-12 20-Sep-12 800 3.5 47.0 45.0 O+2.0
Rasmussen 19-Sep-12 19-Sep-12 500 4.5 51.0 39.0 O+12.0
WeAskAmerica 18-Sep-12 18-Sep-12 1214 2.9 48.1 42.2 O+5.9
Mercyhurst U 12-Sep-12 20-Sep-12 522 4.3 48.0 40.0 O+8.0
Muhlenberg 10-Sep-12 16-Sep-12 640 4.0 50.0 41.0 O+9.0
Philadelphia Inquirer 09-Sep-12 12-Sep-12 600 4.0 50.0 39.0 O+11.0


Rhode Island

2004 Result: 59.42% Kerry, 38.67% Bush.

2008 Result: 63.13% Obama, 35.21% McCain.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 99.8% wins (99,832 wins ), Romney: 0.2% wins (168 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
PPP 16-Feb-11 22-Feb-11 544 4.2 54.0 37.0 O+17.0


South Carolina

2004 Result: 40.90% Kerry, 57.98% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.90% Obama, 53.87% McCain.

9 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Obama: 5.4% wins (5,396 wins ), Romney: 94.6% wins (94,604 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Marist 04-Dec-11 06-Dec-11 2107 2.1 45.0 42.0 O+3.0
Marist 11-Oct-11 13-Oct-11 2131 2.1 40.0 46.0 R+6.0
PPP 25-Aug-11 28-Aug-11 587 4.0 38.0 53.0 R+15.0


South Dakota

2004 Result: 38.44% Kerry, 59.91% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.75% Obama, 53.16% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.8% wins (790 wins ), Romney: 99.2% wins (99,210 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Neilson Brothers 29-Aug-12 06-Sep-12 512 4.3 38.7 53.9 R+15.2


Tennessee

2004 Result: 42.53% Kerry, 56.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.83% Obama, 56.90% McCain.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 7.7% wins (7,690 wins ), Romney: 92.3% wins (92,310 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Vanderbilt Poll 02-May-12 09-May-12 752 4.0 40.0 47.0 R+7.0


Texas

2004 Result: 38.22% Kerry, 61.09% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.68% Obama, 55.45% McCain.

38 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.1% wins (83 wins ), Romney: 99.9% wins (99,917 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
WPA 09-Sep-12 11-Sep-12 1000 3.1 40.0 55.0 R+15.0


Utah

2004 Result: 26.00% Kerry, 71.54% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.41% Obama, 62.58% McCain.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Romney: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Dan Jones 15-Jun-12 21-Jun-12 1222 2.8 26.0 68.0 R+42.0


Vermont

2004 Result: 58.94% Kerry, 38.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 67.44% Obama, 30.44% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Castleton Poll 11-Aug-12 21-Aug-12 477 --- 62.0 25.0 O+37.0


Virginia

2004 Result: 45.48% Kerry, 53.68% Bush.

2008 Result: 52.63% Obama, 46.33% McCain.

13 Electoral votes.

9 polls

Obama: 95.6% wins (95,554 wins ), Romney: 4.4% wins (4,446 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Purple Poll 15-Sep-12 19-Sep-12 600 4.0 46.0 43.0 O+3.0
FOX News 16-Sep-12 18-Sep-12 1006 3.0 50.0 43.0 O+7.0
WeAskAmerica 17-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 1238 2.8 48.5 45.7 O+2.8
PPP 13-Sep-12 16-Sep-12 1021 3.1 51.0 46.0 O+5.0
Quinnipiac 11-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 1474 3.0 50.0 46.0 O+4.0
WA Post 12-Sep-12 16-Sep-12 847 4.0 52.0 44.0 O+8.0
Rasmussen 13-Sep-12 13-Sep-12 500 4.5 49.0 48.0 O+1.0
Marist 09-Sep-12 11-Sep-12 996 3.1 49.0 44.0 O+5.0
Gravis Marketing 08-Sep-12 09-Sep-12 2238 2.2 44.0 49.4 R+5.4


Washington

2004 Result: 52.82% Kerry, 45.64% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.65% Obama, 40.48% McCain.

12 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
Gravis Marketing 21-Sep-12 22-Sep-12 625 4.6 56.4 38.6 O+17.8
Elway 09-Sep-12 12-Sep-12 405 5.0 53.0 36.0 O+17.0
SurveyUSA 07-Sep-12 09-Sep-12 524 4.4 54.4 37.6 O+16.8
PPP 07-Sep-12 09-Sep-12 563 --- 53.0 42.0 O+11.0
SurveyUSA 07-Sep-12 09-Sep-12 524 4.4 54.4 37.6 O+16.8


West Virginia

2004 Result: 43.20% Kerry, 56.06% Bush.

2008 Result: 42.59% Obama, 55.71% McCain.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Obama: 1.9% wins (1,896 wins ), Romney: 98.1% wins (98,104 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
R.L. Repass 22-Aug-12 25-Aug-12 401 4.9 38.0 52.0 R+14.0


Wisconsin

2004 Result: 49.70% Kerry, 49.32% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.22% Obama, 42.31% McCain.

10 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Obama: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Romney: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama Romney Diff
WeAskAmerica 20-Sep-12 23-Sep-12 1238 2.8 52.5 41.0 O+11.5
PPP 18-Sep-12 19-Sep-12 842 3.4 52.0 45.0 O+7.0
Marist 16-Sep-12 18-Sep-12 968 3.2 50.0 45.0 O+5.0
Rasmussen 17-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 500 4.5 49.0 46.0 O+3.0
Marquette 13-Sep-12 16-Sep-12 601 4.1 54.0 40.0 O+14.0
Quinnipiac 11-Sep-12 17-Sep-12 1485 3.0 51.0 45.0 O+6.0


Wyoming

2004 Result: 29.07% Kerry, 68.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 32.54% Obama, 64.78% McCain.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Romney assumed to win all elections.