| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 363 electoral votes | Mean of 175 electoral votes |
There was little change in the electoral map after the release of seven new polls in six states today. Obama led by a remarkable +8% in a Florida poll, and +2% and +5% in two Ohio polls. Oh…Obama led by +11% in Oregon, too. Today’s big surprise was that McCain’s lead in Georgia has dwindled to +3% in a new poll today.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins every one of them. He receives (on average) 363 to McCain’s 175 electoral votes—same as he had yesterday. If the election was held now, Obama would almost certainly win.
Here is how this election has evolved over the past eight months. In early September we saw a Palin bump (as Goldy likes to call it) or a transient “Republican awakening” as I call it. Since about mid-September, Obama has rapidly recovered any lost ground and then some.
Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.
Methods are described in the FAQ.The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.
No matter how much I like what I’m reading, doing so makes my head hurt. Honestly Darryl, isn’t there a supercollider or something like that somewhere that could use your gifts?
The story here is that the electoral vote map has solidified. There hasn’t been much change for several weeks now. Which signals that it isn’t likely to change much in the few remaining weeks before the election. Do you hear the bells tolling for the McCain – Nobody campaign?
Angry Cops Blast GOP’s Sex Offender Ads
“Mug shots of menacing child rapists are showing up in the mailboxes of Washington voters as part of a new round of political-attack ads launched by … the Republican Governors Association (RGA), which has poured $2 million into anti-Gregoire ads to aid Republican challenger Dino Rossi. …
“The ad campaign drew angry reactions from … prosecutors and law-enforcement officials who say Gregoire deserves credit for pushing new laws and funding for better monitoring of sex offenders.
“‘This ticks me off. You can’t pin this one on the governor,’ said Don Pierce, executive director of the Washington Association of Sheriffs and Police Chiefs, which provides support services to law enforcement. …
Mark Roe, senior deputy prosecutor for Snohomish County, who has spent most of his 21-year career prosecuting sex offenders, said the RGA ads left him ‘quivering’ with anger. ‘Gov. Chris Gregoire is the best friend that police, prosecutors and, most importantly, parents have ever had in prosecuting sex offenders and holding them accountable. Period. End of story,’ Roe said during a news conference Thursday with other law-enforcement officials at Gregoire’s Seattle campaign headquarters.
“The Rossi campaign rejected a call by Roe and other Gregoire backers to repudiate the RGA ads. ‘It’s absolutely a legitimate criticism of the governor and her record,’ said Rossi spokeswoman Jill Strait.”
(Quoted from Seattle Times under fair use.)
Roger Rabbit Commentary: “Republican Party” has become synonymous with “sleaze,” “lies,” and “smears.” Wherever there are Republicans, you’ll find intellectual dishonesty and dirt-digging. Why would anyone vote for these scumbags and the sleazy politicians they shill for? Giving government power to Republicans is crazy!
Remember when Republicans were talking about “permament majority?” They’re funny when they’re stupid.
Yays!
Man that’s a lot of pink!
I got a flyer in the mail with a picture of a pop-eyed and greasy haired Dino Rossi with the printed question: “Jerk-off? You decide!”
I’ve made my decision: Rossi is a jerk-off.
Insiders: No ‘October Surprise’ From Rezko Probe
Chicago developer Tony Rezko, convicted in a kickback scheme, is cooperating with federal authorities probing Illinois political corruption.
Persons close to the investigation told the Associated Press that “the fallout could be explosive,” but said Sen. Obama won’t be implicated by Rezko’s grand jury testimony.
Rather, the targets of the investigation are Gov. Rod Blagojevich and other state officials. Rezko “raised millions of dollars in campaign money for many Illinois politicians and … used his clout to control appointments to state boards,” the AP reported.
Obama’s presidential campaign received no money from Rezko, and Obama donated all of the earlier campaign contributions from Rezko for his state races to charity.
Although Obama’s name was mentioned a few times in grand jury testimony, “none of the witnesses accused the Democratic nominee for president of doing anything improper,” the AP said.
Obama first met Rezko when he was offered a job by Rezko after graduating from Harvard Law School. Obama didn’t accept the job, but “a friendship developed” and they “talked politics frequently and occasionally dined together with their wives,” the AP said.
Later on, Obama bought a 10-foot wide strip to widen his home’s yard from Mrs. Rezko, who owned the adjoining lot — a transaction Obama has described as a “bonehead error” even though he paid over $100,000 for the land.
(Source: Seattle Times; quotes are used under fair use.)
Roger Rabbit Commentary: It’s no secret that Illinois politics is rife with corruption. You can’t walk on a sidewalk in Chicago without encountering questionable characters. This has been going on for over 100 years.
But McCain and Palin have been mute about Rezko on the campaign trail — perhaps because they realize there’s nothing there to make hay with. In fact, l’affaire Rezko could boost Obama by demonstrating his skill at navigating Illinois politics while keeping himself above the corruption.
Palin, like Obama, comes from a corrupt state and rose through a corrupt political party. She has carefully created a reputation for herself as a reformer. It remains to be seen to what extent she has used her public positions to further her family’s financial interests. From disclosures to date, we know the Palins are multimillionaires and have an income of about $240,000 a year. Not bad for a part-time oilfield laborer and commercial fisherman whose fishing nets about $40K a year. What we do know is that Palin hasn’t been shy about filling state jobs with personal friends … and using her office to settle personal grudges.
In her case, there may very well be a “there” there. That remains to be seen; but, in contrast to Obama, who has been thoroughly vetted by the national media for several years, we are only beginning to learn details of where Palin’s tentacles reach and how — and for what purposes — she uses her public power. What we do know is that her husband is deeply involved in her official duties, and Alaska’s state government has very much the appearance of a family business.
@4 Of course the Republicans are a permanent majority. Available evidence indicates that 90% of white male felons in Washington prisons are Republicans, and because we have so few minorities in this state, our prison population is overwhelmingly white-male. The Republicans have always been a majority of our prison population, and always will be.
What A 60-Seat Senate Majority Means
First and foremost, confirming judicial appointees over GOP objections — this is the most obvious one that everyone is aware of.
“The Democrats will be very constrained on spending, so they will have to get more of their policies across with regulation and mandates,” Business Week quotes policy analyst Daniel Clifton as saying.
Here are key Democratic legislative objectives that could go through if Republicans lack the votes to filibuster bills, according to Business Week:
Bankruptcy Laws
Democrats want to allow bankruptcy judges to modify mortgages to save homeowners from foreclosure. The financial industry kept this reform out of Bush’s Wall Street bailout plan, but Democrats “are talking informally about bringing the issue back next year.”
Drug Prices
Democrats want to lower health care costs by repealing Bush’s ban on Medicare negotiating prices with drug companies.
Taxes
Democrats want equity firm partners, some of whom make over a billion dollars a year, to pay taxes at the same rates other workers pay, instead of the capital gains rates Bush gave them. Democrats also would end tax breaks for sending American jobs overseas.
Energy
Democrats favor a windfall tax on oil companies, higher energy efficiency standards for new building, regulation of energy futures speculators, and mandates for utilities to buy more power from solar and wind producers.
Labor
Democrats want to boost union membership by letting workers form a union by signing authorization cards. This legislation is critical for America’s economic future, according to policy analyst Roger Rabbit, because declining real wages is the root cause of the debt crisis and consumer retrenchment. Under Bush, wages have declined to less than half of GDP, which has resulted in consumers lacking the money to sustain the consumer spending that comprises 70% of the U.S. economy. For a quarter century, this spending was maintained with credit, which is now collapsing and the only way to avoid another Great Depression is to address the imbalance in output distribution between labor and asset owners that has been the central objective of Republican rule since Reagan, Mr. Rabbit says.
What A 60 Seat Senate Would Mean
First and foremost, Republicans won’t be able to obstruct President Obama from filling federal judicial vacancies, as they did to President Clinton. When Clinton left office, a third of federal judgeships were vacant. Republicans blocked over 100 of Clinton’s judicial appointees. Democrats, by contrast, blocked only 3 or 4 of Bush’s appointees, even though Bush routinely appointed radicals and extremists to federal courts.
But a filibuster-proof Senate majority also will mean Democrats can pass much-delayed legislation that America needs in a host of areas.
“The Democrats will be very constrained on spending, so they will have to get more of their policies across with regulation and mandates,” Business Week quotes policy analyst Daniel Clifton as saying.
Here are some examples:
Bankruptcy Reform
Democrats want to authorize bankruptcy judges to modify mortgages to save homeowners from foreclosure. The financial industry kept this reform out of Bush’s Wall Street bailout, but Democrats “are talking informally about bringing the issue back next year.”
Drug Prices
Democrats want to bring skyrocketing health care costs under control in part by repealing Bush’s ban on Medicare negotiating prices with the drug industry.
Taxes
Democrats want private equity firm parterns — some of whom earn over a billion dollars a year — to pay the same tax rates that other workers pay, instead of the special privilege of paying capital gains taxes they got from Bush. Democrats also want to end tax breaks for sending American jobs overseas.
Energy
Democrats want to tax windfall oil profits, raise energy efficiency standards for new buildings, regulate speculation in energy futures, and require utilities to buy more power from solar and wind producers.
Labor
Democrats want to boost union membership by letting workers join unions by signing authorization cards. Redistributing wealth from workers to asset owners has been the primary objective of Republican rule since Reagan, with the result that labor now gets less than half of GDP. “Socialism for the rich is the root cause of America’s economic collapse,” according to policy analyst Roger Rabbit, because it means workers no longer have the money to sustain the consumer spending that comprises 70% of the U.S. economy. Mr. Rabbit pointed out that saving the economy will require addressing the imbalance Republicans have created between labor and asset owners in distributing what workers produce, and union wages will be a key component of any economic recovery. “You can’t sell cars or houses to people making $2.13 an hour,” Mr. Rabbit said.
Rog: I hope you’re right about 60 seat Senate. There’s a lot of blue dog/bought corporate types in that Dem caucus. Too many for my taste.
It looks like we’ve got a shot at knocking Saxby Chambliss out of the senate.
How Much Can Toxic Credit Card Debt Hurt The Economy?
Rising credit card defaults likely will be the next crisis to hit the financial sector.
In some ways, credit card debt looks even more dangerous than mortgage debt. A higher percentage of credit card debt — 30% vs. 11% — is subprime. Default rates are higher — about 10% of credit card debt is bad debt — and credit cards, unlike mortgages, aren’t backed by collateral.
But the potential impact of credit card debt is limited by the smaller size of the indebtedness. Total credit card debt is only 1/12th of mortgage debt: $950 billion vs. $11.3 trillion. Some credit card receivables are securitized, but the total amount of securitized credit card debt is only $365 billion. Most of this is held by hedge and pension funds, and it often is backed by cash guarantees from the credit card issuers.
The big losers in a credit card meltdown would be banks with large credit card debt portfolios, especially JP Morgan Chase and Bank of America. But a rising tide of credit card defaults probably would have a smaller impact than mortgages on the financial system. And, unlike homes, there is no falling-asset-value factor in the credit card sector that can impact household wealth and consumer spending.
Lax credit card lending practices, and defaults by credit card borrowers, while obviously not helpful to the economy, don’t have the potential to cause as much damage as bad mortgages did.
(Factual material from Business Week used under fair use.)
@10 The economic emergency will bring the blue-dogs into line. Falling real wages is the root cause of America’s economic malaise (and a good part of its political conflicts), and these professional politicians understand that’s what must be fixed. Plus, the stressed-out electorate is in no mood to tolerate further pandering to corporations. Sometimes things have to get worse to get better. The game has changed; corporations will remain influential, but the peasants have revolted and corporate steamrollering of workers and consumers will be more muted in the future.
@11 Yes! And Elizabeth Dole and John Sununu are goners, too.
Here’s another fallout from the impeding GOP electoral disaster: Ambitious young political talent will look at these two parties and go with the Democrats because they’ll conclude the GOP can’t offer them a future. The GOP will get the walk-ons who got cut from the high school team.
10/19 I sure hope Roger is right. There seem to be quite a few Democrats in Congress who would be indistinguishable from Joe Liebermann except they’ve kept their mouths shut.
Was Palin Really Afraid Of Trooper?
The “Troopergate” report released yesterday explicitly questions whether Gov. Palin and her family were afraid of Trooper Wooten.
The independent investigator noted that Palin, soon after taking office, made sizeable cuts in the size of the governor’s security detail.
(Source: Newsweek)
The McCain campaign’s attempt to end-run the legislative inquiry into Palin’s abuse of power could backfire.
At the campaign’s urging, Palin filed a complaint against herself with the state personnel board. The campaign figured she’d be able to control the outcome because she appoints the board.
But the board has hired an aggressive trial attorney as independent counsel who supported her opponent. Even worse for the McCain camp, Palin is scheduled to testify before the personnel board next week, and their report could be released before the election.
Meanwhile, any move Palin might make to replace board members would be seen as a blatant attempt to rig that investigation.
And, more bad news for Palin could come out of the legislative investigation. Now that the bipartisan (and Republican-dominated) Legislative Council’s investigation has established that Palin abused power, the Legislature may decide to fine and/or censure her.
Just about any way you slice it, Palin’s image as a “reformer” is now in tatters. And the GOP’s bald attempts to cover up her misbehavior make her look even worse.
@16 Well guys, I don’t want to get overconfident, and I certainly don’t want to encourage you to get overconfident. There’s much work still to do and the needle on my Worry Meter is all the way over when it comes to vote suppression, black boxes, and dirty tricks. If the law of gravity works, and I think it does, Obama and the Democrats should win this election by a landslide. But the fun-house mirrors erected by the GOP’s Rasputins can’t be ignored. There is such a thing in this world as a coup d’etat and we know Republicans aren’t above that — and they’re not above totalitarianism and brutal repression, either. That’s why
LIBERALS MUST ARM!!!
My favorite all-time republican dirty trick was the recently released “investigation” by the McCain-Palin campaign that “proved” Palin was innocent of any charges abuse of power. Of course, the report did nothing of the kind and was basically an attempt to preempt the bipartisan report that came out yesterday – and showed unequivocably that Palin’s theme of goverment reform is as hypocritical as it gets – since she is now accused of ethics violations. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that over 36 calls by Palin and associates about her ex-brother in law on everything from his volunteer work to his disability is a gross ethical violation and using undue political influence for personal motives.
Palin should not be elected dogcatcher after this. This goes beyond the mere incomptence issue. She is now a tainted politician. Even WF Buckley’s son (Chris) has come out for Obama after the embarassment of Palin. The selection of Palin seals the deal on incompetence and improper vetting by McCain.
@6, are you sure that wasn’t a solicitation?
@19 Liberals must arm. God my side still hurts
from laughing so hard. How are you going to arm when your party takes your guns away? Besides getting into a shooting war against the Conservatives is not in your best interest, but it would be fun.
It’s pretty surprising that we’ve reached this point despite being such a fundamentally racist country. Just 4 short years ago we were a 50-50 split, with half being dyed in the wool racists.