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Rep. Reichert had a role in C.I.A. Director Petraeus’ resignation

by Darryl — Saturday, 11/10/12, 10:33 pm

The tale of Petraeus’ resignation now involves two jealous women, a threatening note from one to the other and, ultimately, an FBI investigation of intimate relationships and potential security breaches.

The F.B.I. found no security breaches.

But one F.B.I. employee wasn’t convinced:

Eric Cantor, the House majority leader, said Saturday an F.B.I. employee whom his staff described as a whistle-blower told him about Mr. Petraeus’s affair and a possible security breach in late October, which was after the investigation had begun.
[…]

Mr. Cantor talked to the person after being told by Representative Dave Reichert, Republican of Washington, that a whistle-blower wanted to speak to someone in the Congressional leadership about a national security concern. On Oct. 31, his chief of staff, Steve Stombres, called the F.B.I. to tell them about the call.

Here is what I don’t understand. If the whistle-blower wanted to speak to “Congressional leadership,” shouldn’t Reichert have taken this person to Speaker Boehner? Reichert brought this person to Majority Leader Cantor, who is only the leader of the House Republicans, not Congress.

What’s wrong with Reichert? Is the man brain damaged or something?

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McKenna concedes; still a paranoid little fuck

by Darryl — Saturday, 11/10/12, 9:46 am

Last night Rob McKenna conceded the race for Washington’s next governor.

McKenna didn’t announce this himself. Rather, it was announced by Randy Pepple, his campaign manager, on a conference call with selected media. McKenna also released a YouTube “sincere appreciation” to his supporters:

About that conference call: once again, the McKenna campaign excluded The Stranger.

Fucking, seriously, McKenna? You’re gonna go all petty and paranoid right down to the bitter end?

Bizarre.

Earlier in the campaign McKenna’s black-listing of The Stranger led other (non-blacklisted) media to question the campaign about the practice. Their reasons: Because Goldy, before he worked for The Stranger, started, as a joke, the “No Reversing our Benefits PAC” (No ROB PAC). Oh…and because Dan Savage donated $500 to Jay Inslee (before the Primary election). Yet, when the Seattle Times decided to become a political action committee promoting McKenna’s gubernatorial bid, they didn’t lose their status as a media outlet with the McKenna Campaign.

This is high-school mentality—it’s the not-quite-emotionally-mature kid running for class president.

In the end, Rob hurt himself. I mean, how could the media take Rob’s “big ideas” all that seriously, when he showed himself to be so small and petty?

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 11/9/12, 11:11 pm

Bill Press rejoices.

Greenman: Hurricane Sandy’s double whammy:

Obama thanks his campaign volunteers.

Thom: Corporate personhood lost big on election day.

Mark Fiore: Perpetual campaign.

Thom with The Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Ugly.

Key & Peele: Luther & Obama’s Victory Speech.

Stephen on Obama’s re-election.

Tweety and Bill Maher: facts and reality.

Stephen does Rachel Maddow.

Young Turks: Election night highlights.

White House: West Wing Week.

Jon does Nate Silver.

Fallon: Romney concession phone call.

Andy Cobb: Voter suppression in Ohio.

Thom: What Karl Rove promised, but couldn’t deliver on.

Stephen: Romney uses Colbert SuperPAC slogan.

Why Nate Silver got drunk.

Lewis Black on Totally Biased.

Maddow: The aftermath.

Jon: McCaskill ‘legitimately raped’ Akin.

Ann Telnaes: Women kick Romney to the curb.

Ed and Pap: Extremist GOP no longer relevant in politics.

Bad Lip Reading: 2012 Debates Highlights.

Young Turks: GOP and the Latino vote.

Jonathan Mann: Karl Rove Goes Nuts:

Jon: Media coverage of marijuana legalization.

SlateTV: The GOP mad rush to embrace immigration reform.

Sam Seder: FAUX News in state of shock on election night.

Maddow: Some things that happened on Tuesday (via Slog).

Jon: Avalanche on Bullshit Mountain!

Ann Telnaes: The G.O.P.s not so happy hour.

Stephen on platonic friends.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Blown off course, or just off course?

by Darryl — Thursday, 11/8/12, 12:22 pm

The blame game is on. Lacking polls to kick around anymore, pundits are looking for the cause(s) of Mitt Romney’s spectacular loss.

For months, we heard that the race was supposed to be a “nail biter.” And toward the end, we heard that Romney “had the momentum.” Things were looking promising for a Romney victory.

In the coming weeks, I’m sure we’ll see many hypotheses and analyses, and proposed turning points where the momentum was lost and Romney’s fate was sealed.

But here’s the fact: Romney lost because he was never ahead in the election. Unlike McCain in 2008, Romney was always losing the 2012 election.

This election was no spectacular loss. It was the ordinary loss of a candidate who was always behind. Period.

It was always in front of our eyes (and I did my best to point it out). The state head-to-head polls never showed Romney with much of chance of winning.

Here is a daily Monte Carlo analysis of the head-to-head polls over the two month leading up to the election (one week “current polls” window):

Final2Months

Romney did have “momentum” in this race. It started before the first presidential debate, following Obama’s post-convention bubble, around the 29th of September. The momentum ended with Romney at his strongest showing around the second presidential debate. Even at his strongest, Romney only had about a 25% chance of winning.

I suppose this was a turning point more than any other. If Obama had blown the second debate, Romney might have maintained his momentum and gone on to win.

But, instead, Obama gained the momentum. From the second debate forward, Obama’s lead grew slowly and steadily, and his chances of winning increased. By the last day of October, Obama hit a 95% probability of winning the election. He still had the momentum.

Hurricane Sandy made no difference whatsoever (as Mitt Romney seems to believe); nor Hurricane Christie. Obama’s win was well secured by that point.

To believe Romney had a chance was to dismiss hundreds of polls as simultaneously skewed. But, like 2008, in this election, aggregation of the state head-to-head polls gave an entirely accurate picture of the election.

At least one right-winger may have let on that he actually does understand why Romney lost:

“We’re outnumbered.”

— Rush Limbaugh, on his radio show.

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On the WA Gov race

by Darryl — Wednesday, 11/7/12, 8:05 am

I had to get up way early this morning to take Kathy to SeaTac, and had a few minutes to look at the election results in the gubernatorial race.

As things stood early this morning, Jay Inslee (D) was leading Rob McKenna (R) by 2.6% and a total of 50,209 votes. Of course only a fraction of the vote has been tallied.

To get a quick projection, I used the 2008 turn-out figures for total turnout by county (not turnout by party, just totals for each county). From there, I estimated the remaining votes left to be counted. Then I used the D & R percentages observed in the first ballot night drop to estimate the number of new votes expected for each candidate.

This last step is controversial. After all, we usually observe that later ballots are increasingly D-leaning. But, doing it this way should give us a worse case scenario for Inslee—if past trends hold this election.

What did I find? Inslee still leads at the end of the election, but by only 1.1%, not the healthier 2.6% observed at the end of election day. And, that translates to a 44,000 vote win for Inslee.

So…if the late ballots trend D (typical), Inslee should be in good shape. If they don’t trend at all, Inslee still wins in a squeaker.

However, if they trend R…we might even have to start talking “recount.” And then, may god(s) have mercy on our souls.

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Election watch open thread

by Darryl — Tuesday, 11/6/12, 4:32 pm

Polls are closing in the East, and we have ourselves a horse race!

The Montlake Alehouse has CNN on the TeeVee box, but I’ll sometimes switch to NPR when their election coverage starts.

(Note: Times in PST)

4:47: Via Twitter:

Larry Sabato ‏@LarrySabato
OHIO: Vast majority of pre-election polls & now election exit poll show Obama up 1-3%. Either all wrong or Obama wins.

4:50: A few minutes ago, Wolf Blitzer called South Carolina for Romney. And when he showed the vote totals, Obama was leading by a 4 to 1 margin. There were only 10,000s or so total votes. Blitzer had some ‘splaining to do!

4:57: Huh…Obama is still up by 57% in SC, with 40,000 or so counted.

5:02: CNN projects a bunch of states and it is Obama 64 EVs to Romney 40 EVs.

5:25: I just put on NPR and heard Matthew Continetti say that we are heading for a national vote/electoral vote split. E.J. Dionne expresses some skepticism….

5:31: I was wrong! Mitt Romney takes Tennessee!

5:43: It’s Romney 82, Obama 64 EV over at CNN. Prepare the capsules, my friends…..

6:02: Well…it would seem Romney did NOT have a good chance of taking Michigan. CNN calls it for Obama.

6:13: Geez…with Michigan out of the picture, Romney has a very tough road to 269!

6:25: Huh. Obama is way up in Colorado. How could that be? I thought Republicans were WAAAAAY ahead in the early voting?!?

6:42: Axelrod’s mustache breathes a sigh of relief! Pennsylvania is called for Barack Obama. Huh…what happened to that momentum the Romney camp had going in Ohio PA (you know, without actually winning a poll)?

6:46: Elizabeth Warren beats Brown in MA! Ted Kennedy can now quit rolling over and over in his grave and be peacefully dead.

6:49: Donnelly is called for Indiana! It’s good for America when Republicans express their true feelings about women’s reproductive health issues…and religion.

6:57: Oh dear, Mitt Romney loses another home state…New Hampshire.

7:00: It isn’t a total loss for Mitt…they just called Utah for him!

7:02: Romney is up +2% in the popular vote. Somehow I think California will have something to say about that!

7:09: McCaskill is called for Missouri. Have I mentioned how good it is for Americans when Republicans express their true feelings about women’s reproductive health issues…and religion?

7:18: Down goes (not) Joe the (not) Plumber!

7:21: Obama gets New Mexico. Not a surprise, really, unless you are living in the 1990s or something.

7:24: They are getting at the crux of the issue in Florida. Whether Obama or Romney wins, why didn’t Romney WALK AWAY with Florida? The answer: Demography. Republicans rule the demographics that are, for the most part, shrinking.

7:51: Minnesota is called for Obama.

7:57: George Allen has conceded defeat in Virginia!

8:01: Obama gets a big batch of love (and electors) from the West coast: CA, WA, and HI

8:04: (via N in Seatle). We can now say that Paul Ryan’s major contribution to this election is that…it took an extra hour to call Wisconsin. And Wisconsin is called for Barack Obama.

8:06: CNN projects that Democrats will keep control of the Senate. This is a remarkable accomplishment. Over the past couple of years, our right wing trolls have spared no mercy pointing out how the math of hanging on to the Senate just doesn’t work. Shows what they know about math!

8:10: Romney gets North Carolina!

8:10: Obama gets Iowa!!!!

8:15: I hear that NBC has called the ELECTION for Obama.

8:16: In the mean time CNN calls Oregon for Obama.

8:18: And CNN now calls the race for Obama!

8:21: Ohio was called for Obama by PBS CNN and it was that that put him over the top.

8:37: It is hard to get too excited about any of the state or King County races, because King County will only do a single ballot drop tonight.

8:44: On the other hand…now that KC has dropped, Inslee has a pretty hefty lead! Unfortunately the SOS web site is constipated, or I would have some details. DelBene 55% Koster 45%.

8:50: Nevada goes to Obama!

8:53: Back to WA: Inslee 51.7% and McKenna 48.3. Don’t get too excited though. There are many more votes to count, and King County was expected to process more ballots for their Tuesday evening drop than usual.

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Poll Analysis: Final Predictions

by Darryl — Tuesday, 11/6/12, 2:28 pm


Obama Romney
98.9% probability of winning 1.1% probability of winning
Mean of 311 electoral votes Mean of 227 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Huh. Four years ago at this time, I was frantically entering the eleven new polls that had come out on election day. Today…not so much. We get only one rather inconsequential poll, although because it is Maine, and the Congressional districts are reported, we get three new polls for the price of one.

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
ME Maine PRC 01-Nov 03-Nov 905 3.3 53.3 42.2 O+11.1
ME1 Maine PRC 01-Nov 03-Nov 469 — 56.7 39.0 O+17.7
ME2 Maine PRC 01-Nov 03-Nov 436 — 49.7 45.7 O+4.0

As a consequence, this analysis differs little from yesterday’s analysis.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 98,946 times and Romney wins 1,054 times (including the 180 ties). Obama received (on average) 311 (+2) to Romney’s 227 (-2) electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 98.9% (+0.1%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 1.1% (-0.1%) probability of winning.

My prediction: Obama wins. It’s almost certain.

Here’s our look back over the race from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 06 Nov 2011 to 06 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).

The interesting thing is the very ragged, multimodal distribution of electoral votes seen in the graph below. The single most likely outcome in this race is an Obama victory with 303 electoral votes. There is a 9.2% probability of that happening.

Then it jumps to 332 electoral votes, with a 6% probability. And then to 318 electoral votes with a 3.8% probability. And so on.

The raggedness of the electoral votes distribution reflects that there are a non-trivial number of important states with large uncertainty. Florida is Romney’s but with only a 63% probability. Iowa is Obama’s but with only an 84% probability. North Carolina is in Romney’s column, but with a 74% probability, and Virginia goes to Obama, but with a 78% probability.

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama (full distribution here):

  • 303 electoral votes with a 9.19% probability
  • 332 electoral votes with a 5.94% probability
  • 318 electoral votes with a 3.80% probability
  • 304 electoral votes with a 3.78% probability
  • 290 electoral votes with a 3.49% probability
  • 319 electoral votes with a 3.30% probability
  • 297 electoral votes with a 2.97% probability
  • 314 electoral votes with a 2.30% probability
  • 312 electoral votes with a 2.23% probability
  • 333 electoral votes with a 2.11% probability

[Read more…]

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Election night edition of Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 11/6/12, 12:39 pm

DLBottleIt’s a party!

Join us tonight for election watching, conversation, and lots and lots of celebration at the 2012 Election Edition of the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our normal starting time is 8:00pm. But for election night, we’ll start at 5:00 pm.

The Alehouse will have TV coverage of the election (with reasonable audio levels). But bring your own radio and headphones/earbuds if you want to concentrate on results—there will be some celebrating and the normal high background noises of a busy pub. Also, there is free WiFi available for streaming, surfing, blogging, tweeting. Whatever. Ask your server for the password.

I’ll be liveblogging the festivities (perhaps with others), so you can always join the party by diving into the cesspool discussion threads.



Can’t make it to Seattle? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. On Tuesday the Tri-Cities chapter meets, and on Thursday Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets.

With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including fourteen in Washington state, four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.

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Poll Analysis: Penultimate stability

by Darryl — Monday, 11/5/12, 10:37 pm


Obama Romney
98.8% probability of winning 1.2% probability of winning
Mean of 309 electoral votes Mean of 229 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Another day, 26 new polls, and we are still at the same place. President Barack Obama is still leading Governor Mitt Romney by 309 to 229 electoral votes (on average).

I’ll have one more update tomorrow, early afternoon—before any election polls close. Here is today’s batch:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 1096 3.0 52 46 O+6
CO Keating 02-Nov 04-Nov 603 4.0 50 46 O+4
CO Lake 31-Oct 04-Nov 400 5.0 45 44 O+1
FL Gravis 04-Nov 05-Nov 1060 3.1 49 49 tie
FL Insider Advantage 04-Nov 04-Nov 437 4.6 47 52 R+5
FL PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 955 3.2 50 49 O+1
FL Mellman 30-Oct 02-Nov 800 3.4 47 45 O+2
IA ARG 02-Nov 04-Nov 600 4.0 48 49 R+1
MI Mitchell 04-Nov 04-Nov 1305 2.7 51 46 O+5
MO SurveyUSA 28-Oct 03-Nov 589 4.1 43.1 49.9 R+6.8
NV PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 750 3.6 51 47 O+4
NH Rasmussen 04-Nov 04-Nov 750 4.0 50 48 O+2
NH New England Collage 03-Nov 04-Nov 687 3.7 50 46 O+4
NH ARG 02-Nov 04-Nov 600 4.0 49 49 tie
NH U NH 01-Nov 04-Nov 789 3.5 51 48 O+3
NC Gravis 04-Nov 04-Nov 1130 2.9 46 50 R+4
NC PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 926 3.2 49 49 tie
OH Gravis Marketing 04-Nov 05-Nov 1316 2.7 49 48 O+1
OH Rasmussen 04-Nov 04-Nov 750 4.0 49 49 tie
OH SurveyUSA 01-Nov 04-Nov 803 3.5 48.8 44.3 O+4.5
OH Ohio Poll 31-Oct 04-Nov 889 3.3 50.0 48.5 O+1.5
PA Gravis Marketing 04-Nov 04-Nov 1060 3.0 49 46 O+3
SD Neilson Brothers 31-Oct 04-Nov 633 4.0 41 53 R+12
VA Rasmussen 04-Nov 04-Nov 750 4.0 48 50 R+2
VA Marist 01-Nov 02-Nov 1165 2.9 48 47 O+1
VA Mellman 30-Oct 02-Nov 800 3.4 48 45 O+3

Colorado gives three new poll leads to Obama. Obama takes 6 of 7 current polls and has a probability of winning the state of 94%.

We get four new Florida polls. One goes to Romney, two to Obama and the last is a tie. Romney has the edge among the 9 current polls, as he is up +0.8%. That translates into a 69% probability of Romney winning the state. Here is the past couple of months of polling:

ObamaRomney05Oct12-05Nov12Florida

Another Iowa puts Romney over Obama, by a slim +1%. Even so, Obama takes six of the eight polls collected over the past week, and it earns him a 90% probability of winning the state now.

In Michigan, Obama polls at +5%. The verdict of the 5 current polls is that Obama will take the state with a 95% probability.

Nevada gives Obama a +4% poll. Combined with the other current poll Obama takes the state 90% of the simulated elections.

A flurry of four New Hampshire polls today mostly gives Obama small leads. There is one tie, however. This brings us to 8 polls taken in the past week for the granite state. Two of them are ties, but Obama leads in the rest by small margins. The analysis gives Obama a 91% probability of winning the state.

Two North Carolina polls go +4% Romney and tie. The third current poll is also a tie. Together Romney has a narrow advantage, and a 72% chance of winning the state.

Four new Ohio polls today. One is a tie, and three give Obama tiny leads. But we now have 12 (count em!) polls collected in the past week. Two are ties, but Obama leads in the remaining 10. The provide evidence that Obama will take the state with a 98% probability.

The only Pennsylvania poll supports Obama over Romney by +3%. We only have 5 current polls and, aside from one tie, Obama leads ’em. He gets a 91% probability out of it.

Three new Virginia polls split 2:1 in favor of Obama. Now with six current polls, Obama takes all but one from today. He holds a +1.4% edge and seems to have a 78% chance of taking the state. This is worth a picture:

ObamaRomney05Oct12-05Nov12Virginia

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 98,814 times and Romney wins 1,186 times (including the 152 ties). Obama received (on average) 309 to Romney’s 229 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 98.8% (+0.5%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 1.2% (+0.5%) probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 05 Nov 2011 to 05 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Poll Analysis: Interesting polls, no movement

by Darryl — Sunday, 11/4/12, 11:15 pm


Obama Romney
98.3% probability of winning 1.7% probability of winning
Mean of 309 electoral votes Mean of 229 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

My analysis yesterday showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by a mean of 309 to 229 electoral votes. Obama would be expected to win an election now with an 98.9% probability and Romney, 1.1%.

Today I found a pack of 29 polls that cover 17 states. The polls have something to celebrate for the Romney camp—ties in a New Hampshire and a Pennsylvania poll, a small lead in a Michigan poll, and a lead in the only Florida poll. But the Obama camp has some celebrating of their own, including leads in three Ohio polls, leads in three of four Pennsylvania polls and, perhaps most importantly, solidifying his formerly tenuous lead in Virginia with two more leads in VA polls.

Altogether…it’s a wash. The expected electoral votes are split identically. Romney’s probability of winning an election goes up ever so slightly, however.

Here are the polls:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ PPP 02-Nov 03-Nov 1080 3.0 46 53 R+7
FL Pulse 29-Oct 29-Oct 1000 3.0 48 50 R+2
IN Rasmussen 01-Nov 01-Nov 600 4.0 43 52 R+9
IA PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 1122 2.9 50 48 O+2
ME Critical Insights 30-Oct 31-Oct 613 4.0 49 42 O+7
MA UMass 31-Oct 03-Nov 800 4.1 57 37 O+20
MA WNEU 26-Oct 01-Nov 525 4.2 58 38 O+20
MI PPP 01-Nov 03-Nov 700 3.7 52 46 O+6
MI Baydoun 02-Nov 02-Nov 1913 2.2 46.2 46.9 R+0.7
MN SurveyUSA 01-Nov 03-Nov 556 4.2 52 41 O+11
MO PPP 02-Nov 03-Nov 835 3.4 45 53 R+8
MT PPP 02-Nov 03-Nov 836 3.4 45 52 R+7
MT Mason-Dixon 29-Oct 31-Oct 625 4.0 43 53 R+10
MT Rasmussen 29-Oct 29-Oct 500 4.5 43 53 R+10
NH PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 1550 2.5 50 48 O+2
NH U NH 31-Oct 02-Nov 502 4.4 48 48 tie
OH Ohio Poll 25-Oct 30-Oct 1182 2.9 48 46 O+2
OH Pulse 29-Oct 29-Oct 1000 3.0 48 46 O+2
OH PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 1000 3.1 52 47 O+5
PA PPP 02-Nov 03-Nov 790 3.5 52 46 O+6
PA Muhlenberg 01-Nov 03-Nov 430 5.0 49 46 O+3
PA Susquehanna 29-Oct 31-Oct 800 3.5 47 47 tie
PA Pulse 30-Oct 30-Oct 1000 3.0 49 46 O+3
UT Mason-Dixon 29-Oct 31-Oct 625 4.0 25 70 R+45
VA Pulse 30-Oct 30-Oct 1000 3.0 49 48 O+1
VA PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 975 3.1 51 47 O+4
WA PPP 01-Nov 03-Nov 932 3.2 53 46 O+7
WI PPP 02-Nov 03-Nov 1256 2.8 51 48 O+3
WI Pulse 29-Oct 29-Oct 1000 3.0 49 48 O+1

The only Florida poll puts Romney over Obama by +2%. Romney now has four of the five current polls, and an estimated 74% probability of taking the state in an election held tonight.

Iowa has Obama up by +2% in a new poll. This state is looking like a lock for Obama. He has led in seven of the eight current polls. Even if the margins are small, the simulation gives Obama a 97% probability that his overall +3% lead is real.

In Michigan, Obama leads Romney by +6% in one new poll, and Romney leads Obama by +0.7% in the other. And that second poll is a monster, with over 1,900 respondents. Putting the five current polls together, Obama is down to a +2.8% lead and a 90% probability of taking the state now.

A new Minnesota poll has Obama leading by a comfortable +11%, a margin that when combined with two more modest margins in the current polls suggests an almost certain win. I might not have even mentioned this poll, except that, in the previous presidential poll analysis thread, Serial Conservative pointed out a Minnesota poll that had Romney up by +1% in the state! He did add the point: “Not sure whether this meets the qualifications for inclusion in Darryl’s analyses.”

So, I dutifully investigated (were it a weekday, I would have called the pollster). This poll was done for American Future Fund, a 501(c)(4) organization that has a long track record of producing and airing factually challenged anti-Obama ads. That isn’t a good start. But what I found is a record of candidate polls being released. That makes it pretty certain that the MN poll was released selectively.

Why does it matter? Consider this. Suppose some 501(c)(4) hit machine hires Mr. P to do 20 polls over several months in a race between Ms. D and Mr. R. And Mr. P is a scrupulous pollster. As it happens, the first 19 polls showed Ms. D leading by margins of +6 to +11. But, just because of the sampling variability in polling that 20th poll comes in with Ms. D up by only +1%. Mr. P’s client releases the poll to show how competitive the race is—good strategy, bad statistics. Of course, the race isn’t close. The client got one of those one-in-twenty results for a race that is really about Ms. D+8%. Mr. P hasn’t done anything wrong. But the released poll suffers from selectivity bias because the other 19 polls were not also released. Releasing only the Ms. D+1% poll is completely misleading as to the actual state of the race.

So…where were we?

Oh…yes, New Hampshire gives us two new polls. One has Obama up by +2% and the other is a tie. Obama takes the other three current polls by mostly narrow margins. Obama would win the state with an 88% probability in a race this evening.

Another day, another sprinkling of Ohio polls. All three go to Obama by smallish margins. Obama leads in seven of nine current polls, and there is one tie. The evidence is overwhelming, suggesting Obama would win an election now by a 98% probability.

Suddenly there is interest in Pennsylvania! Of the four new polls, Obama leads in three, and one is a tie. The four current polls (all added today) combine to give Obama an 89% probability of winning the election now.

The big surprise is the new set of polls from Virginia. One gives Obama a +1% lead, and the other a +4% edge. This solidifies the slight lead in the state that Obama took yesterday. The three current polls now have Obama’s chances at a 77% probability of taking the state.

Obama just squeaks by in two new Wisconsin polls (+1% and +3%). The collection of six current polls (one tie and five Obama leads) have Obama with a 97% probability of winning the state now.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 98,318 times and Romney wins 1,682 times (including the 144 ties). Obama received (on average) 309 to Romney’s 229 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 98.3% (-0.6%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 1.7% (+0.6%) probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 04 Nov 2011 to 04 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Poll Analysis: Three polls in the Washington gubernatorial race

by Darryl — Sunday, 11/4/12, 3:28 pm

In the past several days, three new polls have been released that weigh in on the Washington state gubernatorial race. In all three polls, former Congressman Jay Inslee (D) leads state AG Rob McKenna (R) by narrow margins—always within the margin of error. This post will look at the three polls separately, and then combine them into a joint analysis.

Late last week, the second wave of the Washington Poll was released. The poll surveyed 632 likely voters (MOE 3.9%) using live interviews taken from the 18th to the 31st of October. It found Inslee leading McKenna by 48.7% to 45.6%.

A Monte Carlo analysis consisting of a million simulated elections found that Inslee won 708,884 times to McKenna’s 281,485 wins. In other words, this poll suggests that Inslee would win the election now with a 71.5% probability, and McKenna would win with a 28.4% probability.

Here is the distribution of election outcomes from the analysis:

FinalWAPoll

The other poll released late last week was from Survey USA for KING 5. The poll of 555 likely voters (MOE 4.2%) was taken from the 28th to the 31st of October. It found Inslee leading McKenna by 47% to 46%.

A Monte Carlo analysis of just this poll finds Inslee winning 561,944 times and McKenna winning 425,662 times. The results would suggest that Inslee would win the election now with a 56.9% probability to McKenna’s 43.1% probability:

FinalSUSAPoll

The final poll, released just yesterday, is from PPP. The poll surveyed 932 likely voters (3.2% MOE) from November 1 to 3, and found Inslee leading McKenna by 50% to 48%.

In the Monte Carlo analysis of the PPP poll results, Inslee wins 663,870 times and McKenna wins 327,401 times. This poll, alone, puts Inslee’s chances of winning an election now at 67% to McKenna’s 33% probability:

FinalPPPPoll

We can jointly analyze the three polls together. Our “meta-poll” has a total of 2,119 “voters” of which 2,025 offered a preference for Inslee or McKenna. Inslee took 1035 (48.8%) of these votes, and McKenna took 991 (46.8%) votes. There were 93 (4.4%) undecideds.

The Monte Carlo analysis gives Inslee wins 751,986 times, and McKenna wins 243,119 times, suggesting that, in an election held now, Inslee would win with a 75.6% probability and McKenna would win with a 24.4% probability:

Final3Polls

Finally, lets look at the polling trajectory over the past 6 months:

GenericCongress04Oct12-04Nov12Washington

Inslee took over the lead in late summer, and appears to have held a modest lead through September. Since then, the race has tightened considerably, and we see Inslee with the slightest advantage over the last two months.

This one will be close, but the three most recent polls combine to give Inslee a slight edge.

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Poll Analysis: Two days of good polls for Obama

by Darryl — Saturday, 11/3/12, 8:35 pm


Obama Romney
98.9% probability of winning 1.1% probability of winning
Mean of 309 electoral votes Mean of 229 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

My previous analysis was completed early Friday morning, before most polls were released. The analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by 302 to 236 electoral votes (on average). In an election held yesterday, Obama would be expected to win with a 94.4% probability, and Romney with a 5.6% probability.

There have been 35 new polls released since then that cover 23 “states”. I put states in quotes, because we get polls for ME-1 and ME-2 this batch. Lots of swing states are included in this batch, and they largely come down on the side of Obama:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA Field Poll 25-Oct 30-Oct 751 3.6 54 39 O+15
CO PPP 31-Oct 01-Nov 825 — 50 46 O+4
CO SurveyUSA 28-Oct 31-Oct 695 3.8 47 45 O+2
CT PPP 01-Nov 02-Nov 1220 2.8 55 42 O+13
FL Mason-Dixon 30-Oct 01-Nov 800 3.5 45 51 R+6
FL Marist 30-Oct 01-Nov 1545 2.5 49 47 O+2
GA 20/20 Insight 29-Oct 31-Oct 1316 2.7 45 52 R+7
HI Civil Beat 24-Oct 26-Oct 1218 2.8 61 34 O+27
IN Howey DePauw 28-Oct 30-Oct 800 3.5 41 51 R+10
IA Gravis Marketing 01-Nov 01-Nov 594 4.0 49 45 O+4
IA Selzer 30-Oct 02-Nov 800 3.5 47 42 O+5
IA Mellman Group 30-Oct 01-Nov 600 4.0 46 44 O+2
ME PPP 01-Nov 02-Nov 1633 2.4 55 42 O+13
ME1 PPP 01-Nov 02-Nov 817 — 59 39 O+20
ME2 Gravis 01-Nov 02-Nov 509 4.3 50 47 O+3
ME2 PPP 01-Nov 02-Nov 816 — 51 46 O+5
MA PPP 01-Nov 02-Nov 1089 3.0 57 42 O+15
MA Kimball 31-Oct 01-Nov 761 3.5 54.0 41.4 O+12.6
MI PPP 01-Nov 03-Nov 700 3.7 52 46 O+6
MI Rasmussen 01-Nov 01-Nov 750 4.0 52 47 O+5
MI Grove Insight 31-Oct 01-Nov 500 4.4 48 41 O+7
MN PPP 31-Oct 01-Nov 772 — 53 44 O+9
NE WeAskAmerica 01-Nov 01-Nov 1178 3.0 41 54 R+13
NV Mellman Group 29-Oct 31-Oct 600 4.0 50 44 O+6
NH Gravis Marketing 01-Nov 01-Nov 497 4.3 50 49 O+1
NH New England Collage 29-Oct 31-Oct 1017 3.7 49.5 44.4 O+5.1
OH Rasmussen 01-Nov 01-Nov 750 4.0 49 49 tie
OH Marist 31-Oct 01-Nov 971 3.1 51 45 O+6
OH CNN/OR 30-Oct 01-Nov 796 3.5 50 47 O+3
OH WeAskAmerica 30-Oct 01-Nov 1649 3.0 50.2 45.8 O+4.4
OR PPP 31-Oct 01-Nov 921 — 52 46 O+6
SD Neilson Brothers 28-Oct 31-Oct 634 3.9 42 50 R+8
UT Dan Jones 26-Oct 01-Nov 870 3.4 26 69 R+43
VA WeAskAmerica 30-Oct 01-Nov 1069 3.0 48.5 47.6 O+0.9
WI WeAskAmerica 30-Oct 01-Nov 1210 3.0 51.5 44.8 O+6.7

Both new Colorado polls offer Obama slim margins over Romney. With five current polls splitting 4 to 1 for Obama, the analysis gives Obama an 81% probability of taking the state.

We get one Florida poll for each candidate, but Romney gets the net benefit. The current polls split 3 to 2 in favor of Romney, giving the G.O.P. nominee about 2/3 probability of taking the state.

All three new Iowa polls go to Obama, who also takes 6 of 7 current polls.

Maine-2 was considered a swing “state”, but both new polls go to Obama. Together the suggest Obama has a 87% chance of taking ME-2’s single electoral vote.

Three new Michigan polls give modest leads to Obama. The President takes all five current polls, suggesting a very high probability of taking the state.

The new Minnesota poll is pretty solid for Obama, who ends up with a high probability of winning the state.

The new Nevada poll puts Obama over Romney by a modest +6%. As it happens, that’s the only poll that falls in the current poll window. It suggests Obama would win the state now with a 86% probability.

Obama leads in two new New Hampshire polls. One gives Obama a slim +1% and the other gives him a +5.1%. All four current polls go to Obama and he looks to have an 88% probability of taking the state now.

Four of five new Ohio polls go to Obama, the fifth is a tie. We now have eleven polls taken in the past week, and Obama leads in nine; Romney leads in one. If the election was held now, Obama would take the state with a 97% probabililty.

In Virginia, Obama squeaks out a +0.9% lead. It is the only current poll, so Obama comes away with a 58% probability of winning, based on this evidence.

Obama gets a modest +6.7% in the new Wisconsin poll. Now he leads in four of five current polls, with the fifth poll being a tie. In the analysis, Obama won just under 100% of the simulated elections.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 98,915 times and Romney wins 1,085 times (including the 66 ties). Obama received (on average) 309 (+7) to Romney’s 229 (-7) electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 98.9% (+4.5%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 1.1% (-4.5%) probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 03 Nov 2011 to 03 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza

by Darryl — Friday, 11/2/12, 11:21 pm

Washington Senators for Washington:

Young Turks: Republican’s War on Math.

Maddow: End of campaign bluster.

White House: West Wing Week.

Willard (and Friends):

  • Liberal Viewer: Should Mr. Burns endorse Mitt Romney?
  • SlateTV: Chrysler refutes Ohio Romney ad
  • Young Paul Ryan.
  • Ann Telnaes: Romney’s change.
  • Mitt Romney is autistic:

SlateTV: Why don’t we get rid of the electoral college.

Schoolhouse Rock: Election Rock, with conspiracy theories.

Young Turks: debate audience laugh at Michele Bachmann.

Cock-block the Vote.

Roy Zimmerman: I’m in:

Politics of Disaster:

  • Ann Telnaes: Romney’s all wet..
  • Sam Seder: Occupy Sandy….
  • Young Turks: Mitt v. Climate change.
  • Sam Seder: Mitt Romney implies hurricane Sandy recovery just like cleaning up HS football celebration
  • SlateTV: Chris Christie can’t stop praising Obama.
  • Mark Fiore: The Emergency Private Sector Alert System.
  • Sam Seder: FEMA + Romney Administration = Disaster
  • Stephen: Hurricane Sandy nightmare

Political Kombat ’12: Obama vs Romney.

Maddow: States with weird election laws.

Thom with the Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Jon: Dystopian hellscape that Is Ohio.

Liberal Viewer: Romney stung by repeating a FAUX News lie in debate.

Letterman: VP Joe does the top-10 on voting early.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Poll Analysis: Obama gains

by Darryl — Friday, 11/2/12, 12:17 pm


Obama Romney
94.4% probability of winning 5.6% probability of winning
Mean of 302 electoral votes Mean of 236 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Obama has made a big jump in his chances to be reelected with this new analysis.

A couple of things. This analysis only includes polls through early Friday morning. Also, I am using a 7-day “current poll” window at this point in the race. Third, after missing most of the week, I cannot go through the state-by-state polls today. And last, there are some older polls I’ve added but not included in this list. The list may also exclude one or two new polls. You can always see what polls are used for each state from the big state table below.

Here are (most of) the new polls I’ve included:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO WeAskAmerica 30-Oct 30-Oct 1246 2.9 50.1 46.7 O+3.4
CO Rasmussen 29-Oct 29-Oct 750 4.0 47 50 R+3
CO CNN/OR 26-Oct 31-Oct 764 3.5 50 48 O+2
FL WeAskAmerica 30-Oct 30-Oct 1146 3.0 48.9 49.8 R+0.9
FL Gravis Marketing 30-Oct 30-Oct 549 4.2 47 50 R+3
FL PPP 26-Oct 28-Oct 687 3.7 49 48 O+1
FL CNN/OR 25-Oct 28-Oct 770 3.5 48 48 tie
FL SurveyUSA 25-Oct 27-Oct 595 4.1 47.1 47.1 tie
GA SurveyUSA 25-Oct 28-Oct 574 4.2 43.7 52.0 R+8.3
IL WeAskAmerica 30-Oct 30-Oct 1198 3.0 57 41 O+16
IN Pharos 26-Oct 28-Oct 753 — 42.2 55.4 R+13.1
IA Rasmussen 30-Oct 30-Oct 750 4.0 48 49 R+1
IA WeAskAmerica 30-Oct 30-Oct 1174 3.0 48.8 47.3 O+1.5
IA PPP 29-Oct 30-Oct 676 3.8 50 45 O+5
IA Marist 28-Oct 29-Oct 1142 3.0 50 44 O+6
MA Suffolk 25-Oct 28-Oct 600 4.0 63.0 31.2 O+31.8
MA Boston Globe 24-Oct 28-Oct 583 4.1 56 39 O+17
MA UNH 24-Oct 28-Oct 583 4.1 52 38 O+14
MI Glengarif Group 27-Oct 29-Oct 600 4.0 47.5 45.0 O+2.5
MI EPIC/MRA 26-Oct 29-Oct 600 4.0 48 42 O+6
MN SurveyUSA 26-Oct 28-Oct 574 4.2 50 43 O+7
MO WeAskAmerica 30-Oct 30-Oct 1217 2.9 42.2 53.8 R+11.6
MT Pharos 26-Oct 28-Oct 799 — 42.7 50.4 R+7.8
NE Pharos 26-Oct 28-Oct 761 — 38.8 58.1 R+19.3
NE2 Wiese Res 23-Oct 25-Oct 679 3.8 44 49 R+5
NV SurveyUSA 23-Oct 29-Oct 1212 2.9 50 46 O+4
NH Marist 28-Oct 29-Oct 1013 3.0 49 47 O+2
NC PPP 29-Oct 31-Oct 730 3.6 49 49 tie
NC SurveyUSA 26-Oct 28-Oct 628 3.8 45 50 R+5
ND Mason-Dixon 26-Oct 28-Oct 625 4.0 40 54 R+14
ND Pharos 26-Oct 28-Oct 752 — 37.8 54.7 R+16.9
OH PPP 29-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 50 45 O+5
OH Ohio Poll 25-Oct 30-Oct 1182 2.9 48 46 O+2
OH SurveyUSA 26-Oct 29-Oct 603 4.1 47.5 44.9 O+2.6
OH Pharos 26-Oct 28-Oct 765 — 49.0 46.3 O+2.7
OH PPP 26-Oct 28-Oct 718 3.7 51 47 O+4
OR Elway 25-Oct 28-Oct 405 5.0 47 41 O+6
OR Hoffman Res 24-Oct 25-Oct 615 — 47 42 O+5
PA Keystone Poll 23-Oct 28-Oct 547 4.2 49 45 O+4
RI WPRI 24-Oct 27-Oct 601 4.0 54 33 O+21
TX U TX 15-Oct 21-Oct 800 3.5 39 55 R+16
VA Gravis Marketing 26-Oct 26-Oct 625 3.9 48 48 tie
VA Quinnipiac 23-Oct 28-Oct 1074 3.0 49 47 O+2
VA Roanoke College 23-Oct 26-Oct 638 4.0 44 49 R+5
WA SurveyUSA 28-Oct 31-Oct 555 4.2 54 40 O+14
WA Washington Poll 18-Oct 31-Oct 632 3.9 56.4 35.9 O+20.5
WI PPP 29-Oct 30-Oct 825 3.4 50 45 O+5
WI Rasmussen 29-Oct 29-Oct 750 4.0 49 49 tie
WI Marist 28-Oct 29-Oct 1065 3.0 49 46 O+3
WI St. Nobert 25-Oct 29-Oct 1065 5.0 51 42 O+9
WI Marquette 25-Oct 28-Oct 1243 2.8 51 43 O+8

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 94,381 times and Romney wins 5,619 times (including the 384 ties). Obama received (on average) 302 to Romney’s 236 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 94.4% probability of winning and Romney would have a 5.6% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 02 Nov 2011 to 02 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Not quite dead yet

by Darryl — Thursday, 11/1/12, 1:31 pm

Well, it’s been something of a rough week for me. But I am mostly recovered now, I’ve been off narcotics for almost a day, and I’ll likely be discharged this evening.

With any luck, I’ll do a new poll analysis by late this evening or tomorrow morning. I’ve entered most of the polls up through yesterday, but since they were entered under the influence of morphine, I’ll have some error checking to do.

Oh…and sorry about Kentucky thing. That’s the kind of error I usually find before posting, typically while writing up the summary of polls. But I skipped all that to get up what I figured to be the last analysis for awhile.

Just looking at the polls that have come in, I see no big shake-ups. I expect Obama will still be above a 90% probability of winning and somewhere around a mean of 300 electoral votes.

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