Young Turks: Feds to phase out for-profit prisons.

Nightly Show: Super depressing deep dive into America’s opioid epidemic.

Jonathan Mann: Good use of polling, bad use of polling.

John Oliver: American Petroleum Institute.

July was the hottest month ever recorded.

Bassem Youssef: America First!

What is a digital passport?

The 2016 Breitbart-Brand White Nationalist Drumpf Show:

• Maddow: Drumpf receives first intelligence briefing.
• Farron Cousins: Drumpf wants his goons to intimidate minorities at the polls.
• Sam Seder: Triumph conducts hilarious focus group with Drumpf supporters.
• Drumpf Spox: “Obama invaded Afghanistan.”
• Joe Biden does an incredible, epic take-down of Mr. Drumpf:

• Maddow on Biden’s epic Drumpf takedown.
• Young Turks: #LoserDonald, “I don’t trust US intelligence”
• Trevor Noah: Drumpf’s flawed take on law and order.
• David Pakman: Drumpf’s medical letter is fake.
• Young Turks: Drumpf continues to illegally solicit foreigners for campaign contributions
• Lawrence O’Donnell with Gary Kasperov on Donald Drumpf’s call for “peaceful regime change.”
• Daily Show: Donald Drumpf’s anti-terrorism policies
• Jimmy Dore: Trump lawyer barks ‘Says who?’ at CNN host, hilarity ensues.
• Young Turks: #LoserDonald says goodbye to Paul Manafort.
• Sam Seder: The back story behind the Manafort’s resignation.
• Young Turks: “Says who?” Drumpf surrogate makes fool of himself on TV.
• Nude Drumpf statues pop up in US cities
• Daily Show put Drumpf supports through some EXTREME VETTING.
• Sam Seder: Anchor can’t stop Katrina “bullet necklace lady” Pierson from talking nonsense.
• Drumpf ROAST!
• David Pakman: EPIC fail as Drumpf lawyer confused that Drumpf is losing in ALL POLLS.
• PsychoSuperMom: Trumpenfreude!:

• Maddow: “Rally effect” convinces Donald Drumpf to deny polls.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf’s chief strategist is a real problem for him.
• Young Turks: Drumpf reboots his campaign AGAIN…this time with a white nationalist.
• Michael Brooks: Trump lawyer busts out old “Says who?” defense when told Drumpf is losing
• Maddow: The Manchurian Manafortian Candidate.
• Have you noticed there are two Donald Drumpfs?
• Slate: Drumpf’s “dangerous” new campaign head
• Sam Seder: Drumpf says Hillary is a bigot taking Black voters for granted
• David Pakman: Breitbart News CEO takes over as Donald Trump’s campaign manager.
• Where did Drumpf get his money?
• New Drumpf advertisement
• Young Turks: Naked #LoserDonald statues popping up in multiple cities
• Maddow: Racist red flags follow Donald Drumpf’s Breitbart hire, Steve Bannon.
• The many flip-flops of Donald Drumpf.
• Trevor Noah: The hardest job in the world—Donald Drumpf’s campaign surrogates
• The Racism Olympics:

• Lawrence O’Donnell: Donald Drumpf goes after George Bush and Dick Cheney for Iraq war.
• That Darn Drumpf: Episode 1, Not a Racist.
• Solemn responsibility.
• Young Turks: How #LoserDonald buried the Taj Mahal

Mental Floss: 46 odd and surprising stats and figures.

Hillary ROAST!

Minute Physics: The Twins Paradox primer.

Sam Seder: Bill-O-the-Clueless-Clown suggests #BlackLivesMatter is like KKK.

Robots for President?

Bad Lip Reading The Democratic National Convention.

Eric Schwartz: Don’t Vote:

Liberal Viewer: Larry Wilmore suggests Drumpf & Hillary are different kinds of liars

Jon sends off Larry in style.

Susie Sampson gets Weiner-ed.

Bassem Youssef: How can Muslims act “normal”.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Clinton	Trump
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 337 electoral votes	Mean of 201 electoral votes

The Monte Carlo analysis of state head-to-head polls last week showed Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump in electoral votes by an average of 325 to 213, and with Clinton having a 99.7% probability of winning an election held then.

Since then, 24 new polls have been released in 13 states. Some states have multiple polls, for example, Florida with five and New Hampshire with three.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,999 times and Trump wins the single Electoral College outcome that was a tie. Clinton received (on average) 337 to Trump’s 201 electoral votes. The results suggest that, in an election held now, Clinton would have a near 100.0% probability of winning.

Here is how the race has evolved in some key states.

Florida gains five new polls that solidly favor Clinton (+3%, +6%, +1%, +5%, and +9%). The new polls move Florida from a 67.1% probability of a Clinton victory last week to a 98.2% probability now.

Georgia flips from light blue to light red. Of the seven current polls, Clinton leads in only two of polls. Last week Clinton only had a 68.6% probability of taking the state. That has now shrunk to a 24.2% probability.

Maine gets one new poll that shows Clinton up by +10% and with 100% probability of taking the state. Unfortunately, the new poll does not provide congressional district results. The last poll that did that was from June, and showed Trump with a slight lead in one district. It would be great to get some polling in ME CDs.

New Hampshire gets three new polls (and one aging out). The oldest poll shows Trump with a +9% margin, but Clinton has the lead in the last four polls by +15%, +13%, +10%, and +9%. Clinton goes from a 38% probability of taking the state last week to a 99.9% probability this week.

One new North Carolina poll pushes Clinton from a 50.1% probability of taking the state to a 90.8% probability. She leads in the most recent two of the three current polls.

Ohio loses one poll that aged out, and has shrunk Clinton’s chances from 81% to 65%. Clinton leads in three polls (+4%, +4%, +2%) and Trump leads in one (+3%). The result is a near toss-up

South Carolina finally gets a current poll, but Trump is only up by +2% in the new poll. This small lead gives him a 72.6% probability of winning the state today.

In Virginia, two new polls come in and one old one ages out. Clinton leads in the most recent three polls by double digits with Trump leading (+4%) in the oldest poll. Clinton would almost certainly win Virginia in an election now.

Washington state gets a current poll that gives Clinton a +19% lead. Needless to say, she approaches a 100% probability of winning the state right now.

Last week, the most recent Wisconsin poll was from Marquette University taken in mid-July. Clinton was up +4.1%. Marquette just released their August poll and Clinton now has a +14% lead over Trump. The results suggest she would take Wisconsin with a 99.7% probability today.

The distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] shows all possible Electoral College outcomes:
[Read more…]

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics over a drink at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. All are welcomed—no ideological purity tests involved.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight, the Tri-Cities and Vancouver, WA chapters also meet. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. And on Thursday, the Tacoma, Bremerton, and Spokane chapters meet.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

No cure for lobbying addiction.

Thom: The Good, the Bad & the Very Very Reboanticly Ugly!

Sen. Rubio (R-FL) Zika virus no excuse to get an abortion

Thom: Where are the Koch brothers?

White House: West Wing Week.

David Hawkings’ Whiteboard:Is August recess work or play?

Most hated candidates ever.

This Week’s Drumpf Blooper Reel:

• Jimmy Dore: Donald Drumpf suggests Clinton be assassinated.
• David Pakman: Drumpf would ban Porn if elected President.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf suggests assassination.
• PsychoSuperMom: You built this idiot:

• Farron Cousins: GOP rats abandon the ship they built.
• Young Turks: What is the most offensive thing Drumpf has said.
• Chris Hayes: Khizr Khan responds to latest attacks
• Jimmy Dore: Obama and Clinton founded ISIS says Donald Drumpf.
• Young Turks: Drumpf gets his Twitter taken away.
• Sam Seder: Are we sure Drumpf isn’t a liberal plant?
• David Pakman: Drumpf prepares to chicken out on debates with Hillary
• Trevor Noah: Trump’s ‘Second Amendment’ comment is a dangerous joke
• Jimmy Dore: Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) won’t vote for Drumpf.
• Young Turks: Drumpf would try U.S. citizens at Gitmo.
• Steve Kornacki: Trump gives away the game on outrageous talk
• Larry Wilmore: Talkin’ about Drumpf
• David Pakman: Immigrant Melania Drumpf was likely working in US illegally
• Young Turks: Drumpf tries to defend his 2nd amendment comments.
• Thom: Greenpeace decimates Drumpf’s energy plan.
• Steve Kornacki: “Obama is the founder if ISIS.”
• Young Turks: Drumpf talks about Detroit “titties” during major economic speech.
• Jimmy Dore: Drumpf does an entire speech off a Teleprompter.
• David Pakman: Secret Service has words with Drumpf’s campaign.
• Jimmy Dore: Rudy Guiliani defends Drumpf over assassination call.
• Farron Cousins: What the hell is wrong with Drumpf supporters?!?
• Bill Maher to Rick Santorum: No shame in punting
• Young Turks: National Security officials turn on Drumpf.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf says Obama founded ISIS
• Chris Hayes: Drumpf Vs. local paint store
• David Pakman: Polls aren’t skewed…Drumpf is losing badly.
• Nikki Glaser: Let’s talk about sex…because Drumpf is
• Steve Kornacki: Donald Trump raises specter of assassination
• Daily Show: What the actual fact—Donald Drumpf lays out his economic plan
• Bill Maher: New Rule…Priority fail.
• Young Turks: Historians are aware of a liar like Donald Drumpf.
• David Pakman: Trump speaking at outrageous & disgusting anti-gay conference
• Jimmy Dore: CNN host tells Drumpf supporter “Stop hurting the country”
• Sam Seder: Drumpf loses 3 of “The Five” on his assassination call
• Larry Wilmore: Drumpf Dump
• David Pakman: Unhinged Donald Drumpf says Obama literally founded ISIS
• Jimmy Dore: Don Lemon calls Drumpf supporter a liar over 2nd Amendment comment
• Michelle:

• Young Turks: Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) can’t support Drumpf.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf doubles down on “Obama founder of ISIS” nonsense.

Mark Fiore: Who’s on whose side?

Bill Maher: Future headlines.

Steve Kornacki: Hillary Clinton outreach to GOP makes left uneasy .

New Scientist: The brain’s waste removal system.

FAUX Fallout:

• Young Turks: FAUX News’s “Black Room”
• Pap and Sam: Roger Ailes’ perverted brain will pollute FAUX News forever.
• Young Turks: Andrea Tantaros breaks silence on Roger Ailes
• David Pakman: Apparently, audio tapes exist of Ailes’ harassment.

Mental Floss: Why are there 24 hours in a day?

Did Clinton lie about her emails?

Red State Update: Will Trump debate Clinton? Julian Assange & murdered DNC staffer!

BrideGate Lies:

• Steve Kornacki: Gov. Chris Christie lied according to staff text messages.
• Sam Seder: Chris Christie flat out lied during Bridgegate.

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Clinton	Trump
99.3% probability of winning	0.7% probability of winning
Mean of 325 electoral votes	Mean of 213 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by an average of 309 to 229 electoral votes, giving Clinton a 97% probability of winning an election held then.

There have been 33 new polls released since then, many of them from electorally “interesting” states. So now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,315 times and Trump wins 685 times (including the 169 ties). Clinton received (on average) 325 to Trump’s 213 electoral votes. In an election held now, we would expect Clinton to win with a 99.3% probability and Trump with a 0.7% probability.

A number of states are worth examining in more detail.

Florida has a couple of new polls and three polls that “aged out” from the last analysis. One poll has the candidates tied up, and the other has Clinton up +4.4. The net result is that Clinton’s probability of winning has gone from 37% to 67%. This is still very nearly a tie, but the state moves from light red to light blue.

The raw polling results paint a picture of a state that “swings.”

[Read more…]

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening over the next week. Tonight, the Federal Way, Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet. On Thursday, the Kent chapter meets. Finally, on Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Jimmy Dore: WA-7-CD progressive candidate Pramila Jayapal gets Bernie’s blessing.

Thom: Most disturbing climate change events we have seen yet.

The Devil and Stephen Colbert:

Jimmy Dore: The story (and meta-story) behind the Iran cash drop story.

The Drumpf Implosion:

• Jonathan Mann: Drumpf Remix
• Stephen with the F WERD
• Drumpf, Putin, and Russia
• Our Country
• Jimmy Dore: Fareed Zakaria calls Drumpf a ‘bullshit artist’ on CNN
• Young Turks: “I’m afraid the election’s going to be rigged.”
• Sam Seder: Drumpf inexplicably lists his worst campaign gaffes during a rally
• David Pakman: Drumpf suggests US-Russia alliance to fight ISIS (like the one that has existed for a year).
• Young Turks: Drumpf makes up makes up Iran story after watching FAUX News
• James Corden: Donald Drumpf’s ‘I’m about to eat’ face
• Stephen: Obama has a scandal, but Drumpf spoke today.
• Drumpf Ghostwriter Blasts Art of the Deal in hilarious Tweet
• David Pakman: Dangerous or stupid? Drumpf brags about watching “top secret” “Iran” video
• Stephen: Forget what you heard…there’s good news from the Drumpf campaign.
• Young Turks: Is Melania Drumpf an illegal immigrant?
• Liberal Viewer: Scariest Donald Drumpf fact yet?
• Young Turks: Draft dodger Drumpf gets purple heart.
• Sam Seder: Draft dodger Drumpf accepts some poor guy’s Purple Heart
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Melania’s immigration problem.
• Stephen: The returns of the Drumpf bully kid
• Kimmel: Drunk Drumpf on Harrisburg, PA
• Stephen: Cartoon Drumpf might skip debates.
• Sam Seder: Obama states that Drumpf is unfit.
• James Corden and Denis Leary: Drumpf’s an asshole:

• Seth Meyers: Stay out of it, Democrats
• Young Turks: Drumpf plummets in new polls following series of disasters.
• Stephen: How Drumpf eats KFC
• Farron Cousins: GOP racism and oppression didn’t start with Drumpf.
• David Pakman: Lunatic Drumpf spox forced to backtrack…
• Captured
• Sam Seder: Drumpf asked a foreign policy advisor 3 times why we don’t use nuclear weapons
• Maddow: Whatever his faults, the GOP is letting down Mr. Drumpf
• Young Turks: Drumpf asks about using Nukes.
• Jimmy Dore: Prominent GOPer wonders why there aren’t more defectors.
• Thom: Obama says, “Dump Drumpf”
• Farron Cousins: Drumpf is already making excuses for his defeat..
• Sam Seder: Drumpf boots a baby.
• Watch Drumpf supporters make other decisions
• Stephen: For Donald Drumpf, every day is opposite day.
• Young Turks: Crying baby.
• Seth Meyers: A Closer Look at Drumpf’s very bad week
• Red State Update: Drumpf Kicks Baby Out! Drumpf Won’t Endorse Paul Ryan! Drumpf Wants Nukes!
• David Pakman: “GOP Nominates Dangerous Insane Person, Now Panic Because He’s Dangerously Insane”
• Drumpf Danger
• Jimmy Kimmel: Donald Drumpf’s remarks are well prepared.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf thinks Rick Scott has zika under control.
• Farron Cousins: Drumpf wants to know why we can’t use nukes.
• Paul Manafort was in a meeting that hasn’t happened yet So he knows Drumpf didn’t ask about nukes
• Mark Fiore: Drumpf’s ultimate sacrifice
• Maddow: Donald Drumpf’s behavior sends GOP into panic
• Stephen: Is there ANYONE Drumpf won’t attack?
• David Pakman: Why won’t Drumpf release his tax returns?

Hillary gets psyched for the Olympics.

Jimmy Dore: Bill-O-the-Clown on the silver lining in slavery.

Stephen: Cartoon Hillary on her disappearance.

Thom: The Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Seriously Ugly!

MinutePhysics: How long is a sun day?

Jimmy Dore: Political jokes of the week.

Roy Zimmerman: “Burn, Goody Clinton”:

Young Turks: Kansas proves Republican policies don’t work.

G.O.P. Voter Suppression Laws Get Stuck Down:

• Sam Seder: NC & WI courts strike racist voting laws.
• Farron Cousins: Repressive Republican woting laws are getting decimated in court

Thom: Is Congress stalking Greenpeace with Subpoenas?

Can a third-party candidate ever become President?

Jimmy Kimmel interviews Morgan Freeman narrating a Hillary Clinton campaign video.

Slate: Corey Lewandowski is a complete disaster on CNN.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Clinton	Trump
97.0% probability of winning	3.0% probability of winning
Mean of 309 electoral votes	Mean of 229 electoral votes

There have been eight new polls released since last week’s analysis, including PA, VA, NV, a pair in GA and a pair in AZ. The previous analysis had Hillary Clinton with a 97.8% probability of winning and election then. Donald Trump had a 2.2% of winning.

This week, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 97,010 times and Trump wins 2,990 times (including the 459 ties). Clinton received (on average) 309 to Trump’s 229 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 97.0% probability of winning and Trump would have a 3.0% probability of winning.

There aren’t many changes with only eight polls in six states, but a few are worth noting.

In Arizona, three polls have aged out and there are two new polls, one with Clinton up +2 and the other with Trump up +7.5. The net is a small bump for Trump. This is similar in Georgia, where two new polls (Trump +0.2 and Trump +3) join an existing poll (Trump + 2) to boast Trump’s chances in the state.

We have one new poll in Nevada (Clinton +1) that, combined with two existing polls (Trump +5 and Clinton +4), bumps Clinton’s chances. Trump went from 68% probability down to a 59% probability. Essentially, Nevada is a tie.

Finally, Virgina has one new poll (Trump +4) with three existing polls (Clinton +5, Clinton +7, Trump +0.4). Clinton’s probability has dropped slightly from 94% to 82%.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

It’s election night in Washington state. So fill out your ballot, drop it off in the nearest ballot box, and then join us for an evening of electoral erudition and political pontification at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Long Beach, and West Seattle chapters also meet. The Lakewood and Bellingham chapters meet on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including nineteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Colbert: Political week in review.

Young Turks: GOP loses it over Tim Kaine’s lapel pin.

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Glass Ceiling Broken:

• Stephen: Hillary breaks the glass ceiling.
• Daily Show: The DNC’s rocky start.
• Seth Meyers: A Closer Look at DNC Day 2:

• Stephen: an herstoric achievement–240 years in the making.
• James Corden: First Lady Obama wins the DNC opening night.
• Susie Sampson: Drump’s Campaign Manager on Donald Trump’s Penis
• The Late Show “Fight Song” feat.
• Songify Hillary’s historic night.
• Stephen: Obama, Biden and Kaine speak on night 3 of the DNC
• Maddow: Obama speech ‘politically priceless’ for Clinton
• Thom: Drumpf gets his talking points from Storm Front
• Trevor: Hillary’s acceptance speech.
• Bill Maher: New Rule — The notorious HRC
• Young Turks: Obama’s speech was so good even conservatives liked it.
• Stephen: The last O’Malley supporter
• Young Turks: Best lines from Hillary’s speech.
• ONN Lesser DNC Speeches: Walking in on Hillary and Bill
• Stephen: Clinton overcomes insurgent “fart-in,” accepts Democratic nomination:

• Hasan Minhaj: Why Hillary Clinton needs to beat Donald Drumpf
• Hillary prepares for her acceptance speech.
• Stephen Colbert and John Oliver Chat about Tim Kaine
• Daily Show: DNC Wrap-up
• Sam Seder: Michael Bloomberg rips Drumpf to shreds.
• Jimmy Kimmel: Bill’s sexy DNC speech
• PsychoSuperMom: “I’m With her”
• James Corden’s Glass ceiling and tip of the day for Bill-O-the-Clown
• Seth Meyers: A Closer Look at Hillary Accepting
• Stephen: Cartoon Hillary answers Republican questions.
• Mark Fiore: The Kremlin Convention
• Stephen: Hillary’s terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day

The actor that every politician needs at rallies.

Mental Floss: 39 facts about the middle ages.

How a city’s economy depends on airports.

Young Turks: Republicans go BONKERS over Bradley Cooper (Sniper) at DNC.

What FAUX News aired Instead of the speech by fallen Muslim soldier’s father.

White House: West Wing Week.

Kimmel: Trump and Clinton puppets.

The Drumpfsputin Affair:

• Stephen: A question about Drumpf
• Seth knows why Drumpf won’t release his tax returns.
• Samantha Bee: Midnight in America.
• David Pakman: Drumpf takes 5 positions on minimum wage in 45 seconds.
• Maddow: Drumpf is a “unique and present danger”…
• Young Turks: Father of fallen American soldier delivers powerful speech against Drumpf
• Sam Seder: Drumpf wants to “hit [DNC] speakers so hard”.
• Thom: If Drumpf can’t handle a mean tweet, should he have the nuclear codes?
• Donald Drumpf is not allowed in America…according to Donald Drumpf.
• Young Turks: Drumpf’s response to DNC is classic PROJECTION
• Swagasaurus: Fuckboy Drumpf.:

• David Pakman: Drumpf defends serial harasser Roger Ailes.
• Thom: Pence may be more dangerous than Drumpf
• Young Turks: Drumpf asks Russia to commit crime against political opponent
• Sam Seder: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s Drumpf burn is beautiful.
• David Pakman: Hundreds say Drumpf doesn’t pay his bills
• Nightly Show: Backstage with Drumpf.
• Young Turks: Drumpf is not in favor of freedom of the press
• Slate: Counting arbitrary things in Drumpf’s speech
• Kimmel: Drunk Donald Trumpf on napping.
• Trevor: Drumpf’s shady ties to Russia
• Samantha Bee: Fear mongering
• Young Turks: What is the best way to attach Drumpf?
• David Pakman: Drumpf denies meeting Putin after bragging about meeting Putin
• Try on a Drumpf hat and tell us how it feels.
• YG and Nipsey Hussle: “Fuck Donald Trump”
• Young Turks: Dumbshit Drumpf takes a swing at Tim Kaine (D), hits Tom Kean (R)
• Bad Lip Reading: Cruz talks Drumpf.
• Kimmel: The Troompa Loompas on hacking
• Young Turks: DNC speeches gave Drumpf a Twittergasm

Seth Meyers with Lenny Kravits on the Clintons.

Young Turks: Voter ID laws struck down.

Stephen: What’s the nicest thing you can say about your opposing party’s candidate.

How did the U.S. end up with a 2-party system?

Young Turks: All cops walk in Freddie Gray case.

Lawrence O’Donnell: Capt. Khan’s parents remember their son

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Clinton	Trump
97.8% probability of winning	2.2% probability of winning
Mean of 312 electoral votes	Mean of 226 electoral votes

Since the previous analysis, ten new polls have been released. Additionally, I fixed the Vermont poll that had Sec. Hillary Clinton’s and Donald Trump’s numbers reversed. As it happens a more current poll for Vermont was released.

Only a couple of the new polls were still in the field this week, but many of them were in the field last week, so lets call this the Post-RNC, Pre-DNC benchmark.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 97,843 times and Trump wins 2,157 times (including the 223 ties). Clinton received (on average) 312 to Trump’s 226 electoral votes. The results suggest that, in an election held now, Clinton would have a 97.8% probability of winning and Trump would have a 2.2% probability of winning.

Little has changed from the previous analysis. The most noticeable is Florida, which has decreased from a 56% chance for Clinton to a 37% chance. This reflects two older polls “aging out” and one new poll added. Trump leads in two of the three current polls. Here is the polling history, which makes Trump’s lead seem plausible:

The other noticeable change is New Hampshire’s shift from blue to red. An older ARG poll “aged out” and a new NH Journal poll has been added. The NH Journal poll has a surprisingly large +9.4% for Trump. The state has been close, but perhaps something about Trump has strongly resonated with NH voters. The polling history suggests this new poll is an outlier–Trump has not led in any of the previous 26 polls in NH, and suddenly he is up by nearly double digits.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

History will be made tonight, so talk about it….

6:02: Washington delegation has been raising hell all week

More WA delegates protest TPP and other causes on night of @HillaryClinton acceptance speech pic.twitter.com/U7Lt8dAOJH

— Jim Brunner (@Jim_Brunner) July 29, 2016

Tell me again how we need to keep violent people out of the US https://t.co/NARjdXMQI1

— Lee Rosenberg (@Lee_Rosenberg) July 29, 2016

It seems like a good idea for Ds to welcome Rs and conservatives who are willing to step up and admit the GOP nominee is a madman.

— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) July 29, 2016

Abdul-Jabbar: “I’m Michael Jordan and I’m with Hillary…I said that of course because I know Donald Trump couldn’t tell the difference"

— Zeke Miller (@ZekeJMiller) July 29, 2016

Read about Rev. William Barber, who just finished speaking at the #DemConvention: https://t.co/cUURDlTfFu https://t.co/rRTKFd5u0d

— POLITICO (@politico) July 29, 2016

Powerful speech by Captain Khan. Most scathing indictment of Trump.

— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) July 29, 2016

Omigod, what a devastating critique of Trump from Khizr Khan, father of fallen Muslim veteran. #DemsInPhilly

— (((Goldy))) (@GoldyHA) July 29, 2016

6:28: Man…General Allen could be a voice-over actor for any general anywhere!

Comparing the two conventions, it's clear that Democrats are now the party of patriotic America, the future America, the real America

— Markos Moulitsas (@markos) July 29, 2016

7:30: Huh…Did you notice Hillary DIDN’T lightly grope her daughter?

7:39: “He has taken ” the GOP ” a long way, from ‘Morning in America’ to ‘Midnight in America’.”

She's never going to be as soaring an orator as BHO or as intimate as BC, but she's killing it, imo

— Clara Jeffery (@ClaraJeffery) July 29, 2016

"I accept your nomination for president of the United States!” —Hillary https://t.co/3Ffpf7W4Vz

— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) July 29, 2016

Clinton: "Donald Trump says he wants to make America great again – well, he could start by actually making things in America again."

— Sabrina Siddiqui (@SabrinaSiddiqui) July 29, 2016

“Imagine him in the Oval Office…a man you can bait with a tweet is not a man you can trust with nuclear weapons."

— Mike Warren (@MichaelRWarren) July 29, 2016

Looks like admitted lair and alleged campaign fraudster Tim “Biggest Lie of My Life” Eyman is going to get a close-n-personal tour of our criminal justice system:

Attorney General Bob Ferguson on Wednesday asked a Snohomish County Superior Court judge to hold Tim Eyman and his political committees in contempt for failing to turn over documents in as part of an investigation into the initiative promoter’s campaign finance practices.

Ferguson said he was also seeking a similar ruling from a Thurston County judge against signature gathering firm Citizen Solutions, saying that both Eyman and his committees have failed to meet a court-ordered deadline for disclosing the documents.

“Despite a subpoena and a court order, Tim Eyman continues to impede this investigation,” Ferguson said. “That’s unacceptable.”

Or…at least be fined $2000/day for every day he doesn’t turn over the subpoenaed documents.

I don’t know about you, but I’d settle for knocking a week or two off his sentence if he agreed to be frogmarched in his Darth Vader getup.

Clinton	Trump
97.1% probability of winning	2.9% probability of winning
Mean of 314 electoral votes	Mean of 224 electoral votes

The previous analysis consisted of almost entirely pre-RNC polls, and the Monte Carlo analysis, based only on polls, suggested that Donald Trump would have no chance of winning an election held then. We now have a half dozen new post-RNC polls, including polls in NC, OH, and NV. As you might expect, the post-RNC polls show Trump, now the G.O.P. nominee, doing better against the likely Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton.

A change in this analysis is that I’ve tightened the “current poll” window from polls taken in the past three months to polls taken within the past month. This has two possible effects for each state. First, it makes the polling data more current, which is particularly important for an accurate portrayal of Trump’s performance. His image among Republicans has dramatically changed over the past 6 months, and we can expect he will start polling better now that he is the nominee. Additionally, the smaller “current poll” window will increase the uncertainty for many states just because there are fewer polled individuals included. Thus, we see some states turn from solid in the previous analysis to strong in this analysis.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 97,074 times and Trump wins 2,926 times (including the 205 ties). Clinton received (on average) 314 to Trump’s 224 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 97.1% probability of winning and Trump would have a 2.9% probability of winning.

Update: Yes…Vermont is the wrong color on account of a data entry error for one VT poll. This has been corrected for the next analysis.

Did Trump get a convention bump? It appears so.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

A week ago during a convention’s prime-time broadcast we heard from the Duck Dynasty guy and Scott Baio. At a different convention a week later, we heard from Michelle Obama and Elizabeth Warren. One of the conventions seems serious. Please join us tonight for an evening of political pontification and convention chatter at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight, the Tri-Cities chapter meets. On Wednesday, the Burien and the North Spokane chapters meet. The Kent and Woodinville chapters meet on Thursday. And next Monday, the Yakima and South Bellevue chapters meet.

There are 184 chapters of Living Liberally, including nineteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.