The previous analysis showed Sec. Hillary Clinton with nearly 100% probability of beating Donald Trump in an election held last week. Her average Electoral College total was 337 to Trump’s 201.
Since last week’s analysis, there have been 22 new polls released in 16 states. We have three new polls in North Carolina, two in Florida, a pair in Michigan, and two in Virginia. Note that I did not include a recent poll from South Carolina because it was commissioned by the state Democratic Party. I explain my inclusion and exclusion criteria for polls in the FAQ.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins all 100,000 times. This time, Clinton received (on average) 347 to Trump’s 191 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a very close to a 100% probability of beating Trump.
Clinton is now in an extremely strong position. Even if she wins only the “safe Clinton” and “strong Clinton” states (i.e. darkest shades of blue) and loses all of the states that “lean Clinton” or are “weak Clinton” (i.e. medium or light shade of blue), she wins the election with 294 electoral votes. That is, Clinton still wins the election without Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon and Ohio. I should add that nobody seriously expects Clinton to lose Oregon; the most recent poll we have in the state is from mid-June, and has Clinton leading Trump by a few points.
A few things have changed since last week that bumps up Clinton’s electoral vote total.
In Iowa and old Docking poll aged out and a new poll was released giving us three current polls. The newest has Clinton up by +2%, one has Trump up by 1.2% and the third is a dead tie. The net result is that Clinton won 57.2% of the simulated elections suggesting she is slightly favored, but statistically, Iowa is a tie.
In Missouri we lose two old polls, including one with Trump up by +9.9%. The three current polls have Trump up: +1%, +2% and +3%. As a result, Trump dropped from a 91% to a 84% chance of winning the state.
For the previous analysis we only had an old poll for New Mexico that had Clinton up by about 3%. But a new PPP poll in the state has Clinton up 40% to 31% (+9%). Consequently Clinton moves from a 76% probability of winning the state last week to a 99% this week.
North Carolina moves to a lighter shade of blue this week. Last week we had three current polls with Clinton up by +9% and +2% and Trump up by +4%. Three new polls are added this week that has Clinton up +2%, Trump up +10%, and a tie. The net result is that Clinton went from a 91% probability of winning the state last week to an 84% chance of taking it this week.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 25 Aug 2015 to 25 Aug 2016, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).
An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Clinton (full distribution here):
- 340 electoral votes with a 6.31% probability
- 346 electoral votes with a 6.11% probability
- 356 electoral votes with a 5.15% probability
- 341 electoral votes with a 4.92% probability
- 347 electoral votes with a 4.65% probability
- 350 electoral votes with a 3.41% probability
- 357 electoral votes with a 3.32% probability
- 362 electoral votes with a 3.12% probability
- 349 electoral votes with a 3.02% probability
- 334 electoral votes with a 2.97% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Clinton wins 100.0%, Trump wins 0.0%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Clinton: 347.0 (14.0)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 191.0 (14.0)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 347 (319, 374)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 191 (164, 219)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|2||8||Votes||polls||Votes||Clinton||Trump||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.