HorsesAss.Org

  • Home
  • About HA
  • Advertise
  • Archives
  • Donate

Poll Analysis: Race is stable with Clinton leading Trump

by Darryl — Thursday, 9/1/16, 2:40 pm

Clinton
Trump
100.0% probability of winning
0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 350 electoral votes
Mean of 188 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLousianaMaineMarylandMassachusettesMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Electoral College Map

GeorgiaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoDelawareConnecticutFloridaMississippiAlabamaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

We now have about 20 new polls since the previous analysis last week. There Sec. Hillary Clinton was leading Donald Trump in mean electoral votes 347 to 199. If the election had been held last week we would expect Clinton to win with near certainty.

The new polls come largely from swing states, and include: 2 AZ, 1 FL, 1 MI, 1 MO, 2 NC, 1 NH, 1 NY, 2 OH, 4 PA, 1 VA, 4 WI, and 1 WV.

A Monte Carlo analysis with 100,000 simulated elections, gives Clinton all 100,000 wins. Clinton received (on average) 350 to Trump’s 188 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would be expected to win with greater than 99% probability.

Basically, the newest polls don’t change the picture much. The only state to flip is Georgia, that went from Trump with a 72.5% probability of taking to state to Clinton with a 50.1% chance. In other words, Georgia looks like a toss-up. The change isn’t because of new polling. Rather, one old poll “dated out”. Frankly, Clinton’s standing is being driven by one poll from JMC Analytics that has her up +7%. I suspect this poll is an outlier.

ClintonTrump01Aug16-01Sep16Georgia

In Missouri, a new PPP poll has Trump up +6%, which improve his chances of taking the state from 79.4% last week to 93.9% this week.

ClintonTrump01Aug16-01Sep16Missouri

In North Carolina we lost one old poll and gained two new polls. The net result is no change: Clinton still has an 84% chance of taking the state now.

ClintonTrump01Aug16-01Sep16North Carolina

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Clinton (full distribution here):

  • 356 electoral votes with a 6.39% probability
  • 340 electoral votes with a 5.13% probability
  • 362 electoral votes with a 5.08% probability
  • 346 electoral votes with a 4.60% probability
  • 347 electoral votes with a 4.47% probability
  • 341 electoral votes with a 4.19% probability
  • 357 electoral votes with a 4.19% probability
  • 350 electoral votes with a 3.83% probability
  • 363 electoral votes with a 3.44% probability
  • 349 electoral votes with a 2.87% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Clinton wins 100.0%, Trump wins 0.0%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Clinton: 349.7 (14.1)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 188.3 (14.1)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 350 (321, 374)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 188 (164, 217)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

ThresholdSafe+ Strong+ Leans+ Weak
Safe Clinton187
Strong Clinton125312
Leans Clinton2828340
Weak Clinton222222362
Weak Trump111176
Leans Trump2626175
Strong Trump89149
Safe Trump60

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

10EC#Total%%ClintonTrump
28VotespollsVotesClintonTrump% wins% wins
AL91*3690 36.7 63.3 0.0100.0
AK31*435 37.5 62.5 0.0100.0
AZ1153902 48.8 51.2 14.5 85.5
AR61*623 43.3 56.7 1.2 98.8
CA551*803 60.5 39.5100.0 0.0
CO921244 57.0 43.0 99.9 0.1
CT71*1024 53.2 46.8 92.5 7.5
DE31*529 56.7 43.3 98.6 1.4
DC31*1131 76.5 23.5100.0 0.0
FL29107004 52.2 47.8 99.5 0.5
GA1653762 50.0 50.0 50.1 49.9
HI41*801 61.9 38.1100.0 0.0
ID41*402 34.3 65.7 0.0100.0
IL202*1654 59.4 40.6100.0 0.0
IN111334 43.4 56.6 4.6 95.4
IA631671 50.3 49.7 56.4 43.6
KS61469 46.7 53.3 15.6 84.4
KY81*425 42.4 57.6 1.3 98.7
LA81*1285 39.4 60.6 0.0100.0
ME211555 56.6 43.4100.0 0.0
ME111*201 59.2 40.8 97.0 3.0
ME211*162 49.4 50.6 46.0 54.0
MD102*2657 65.2 34.8100.0 0.0
MA111*400 61.3 38.8 99.8 0.2
MI1642537 55.3 44.7100.0 0.0
MN101*1139 56.1 43.9 99.8 0.2
MS61987 42.9 57.1 0.0100.0
MO1043202 48.1 51.9 6.1 93.9
MT31*1153 44.1 55.9 0.3 99.7
NE21*1093 42.5 57.5 0.0100.0
NE110*(0)(100)
NE210*(0)(100)
NE310*(0)(100)
NV621267 52.0 48.0 84.1 15.9
NH432128 55.7 44.3100.0 0.0
NJ142*568 60.4 39.6 99.9 0.1
NM51783 56.3 43.7 99.6 0.4
NY2932635 60.7 39.3100.0 0.0
NC1574820 51.0 49.0 84.4 15.6
ND31*1226 44.6 55.4 0.5 99.5
OH1853371 51.6 48.4 90.2 9.8
OK71*244 35.2 64.8 0.0100.0
OR71*580 52.1 47.9 75.9 24.1
PA2074594 53.9 46.1100.0 0.0
RI41*886 57.0 43.0 99.8 0.2
SC921631 48.3 51.7 15.9 84.1
SD31*657 40.9 59.1 0.1 99.9
TN111*2191 40.5 59.5 0.0100.0
TX3821606 44.8 55.2 0.2 99.8
UT61641 38.1 61.9 0.0100.0
VT31*356 69.7 30.3100.0 0.0
VA1353409 56.6 43.4100.0 0.0
WA121335 64.2 35.8100.0 0.0
WV51309 38.8 61.2 0.2 99.8
WI1042260 54.8 45.2100.0 0.0
WY31*690 29.6 70.4 0.0100.0

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Share:

  • Tweet
  • Email
  • Print

Related

ADVERTISEMENT

Recent HA Brilliance…

  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Monday, 4/23/18
  • open thread open thread open thread Monday, 4/23/18
  • HA Bible Study: Judges 11:29-40 Sunday, 4/22/18
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Saturday, 4/21/18
  • Thread Open Friday, 4/20/18
  • Open thread Wednesday, 4/18/18
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Monday, 4/16/18
  • Open Thread 4/16 Monday, 4/16/18
  • HA Bible Study: Deuteronomy 7 Sunday, 4/15/18
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Friday, 4/13/18
ADVERTISEMENT

From the Cesspool…

  • Roger Rabbit on open thread open thread open thread
  • Roger Rabbit on open thread open thread open thread
  • YLB on open thread open thread open thread
  • Steve on open thread open thread open thread
  • Roger Rabbit on open thread open thread open thread
  • Puddybud is just visiting the mayonnaise monster lookin ASS crackers here! on open thread open thread open thread
  • Puddybud is just visiting the mayonnaise monster lookin ASS crackers here! on open thread open thread open thread
  • YLB on open thread open thread open thread
  • @godwinha on open thread open thread open thread
  • Roger Rabbit on open thread open thread open thread
Tweets by @GoldyHA

Please Donate

Currency:

Amount:

Can’t Bring Yourself to Type the Word “Ass”?

Eager to share our brilliant political commentary and blunt media criticism, but too genteel to link to horsesass.org? Well, good news, ladies: we also answer to HASeattle.com, because, you know, whatever. You're welcome!

Search HA

Follow Goldy

HA Commenting Policy

It may be hard to believe from the vile nature of the threads, but yes, we have a commenting policy. Comments containing libel, copyright violations, spam, blatant sock puppetry, and deliberate off-topic trolling are all strictly prohibited, and may be deleted on an entirely arbitrary, sporadic, and selective basis. And repeat offenders may be banned! This is my blog. Life isn’t fair.

© 2004–2018, All rights reserved worldwide. Except for the comment threads. Because fuck those guys. So there.

loading Cancel
Post was not sent - check your email addresses!
Email check failed, please try again
Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email.