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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 4/13/12, 11:57 pm

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Sen Chuck’s tweet.

Ed and Pap: Stop supporting ALEC members.

I didn’t speak up.

Mark Fiore: Dogboy and Mr. Dan in “Restrain Yourself”.

Sam Seder: Michele Bachmann says uninsured choose to not have health insurance!.

Maddow does Bill Maher.

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Ann Telnaes: The Catholic leadership’s selective use of duct tape.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Pennsylvania edition:

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Rep. West’s imaginary Communist Conspiracy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thom: Rep. West, not so many Communists…plenty of Fascists.

Young Turks: Ex-gay’ therapy advocate now says his theory about gay choice was wrong.

ONN: Dems say Obama has dicked us around for four years…”it’s our turn”.

White House: West Wing Week.

The Second Half of the G.O.P. Gladiatorial Games:

  • Ron Paul takes potshots at Mitt, Newt, and Santorum.
  • A match made in heaven.
  • Mitt Romney is sooooooo gay!
  • Buzz 60: Obama and Biden release their taxes. Romney??
  • Jen Granholm: Romney is out of touch?
  • What if Romney loses??
  • Romney should listen to Lilly Ledbetter.
  • Mitt Romney: Memories to last a lifetime
  • Stephen on Mitt’s possible running mates.
  • How Mitt Romeny got his tax extension:
  • Mitt chats with Sean Hannity about his horse breeds, ties.
  • Ann Telnaes: Santorum quits.
  • Jon says “Goodbye” to Rick Santorum.

Thom: Patriotic millionaires WANT more taxes.

Young Turks: FAUX News mole is fired.

Is Herman Cain trying to sell chicken-topped pizza?

Sam Seder: Health Care and the Supreme Court.

Stephen on Sen. Chuck Grassley’s twitter feed.

Liberal Viewer: Is broccoli like health insurance?

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Young Turks: Obama calls Kanye a jackass…AGAIN!

The Republican War on Women™:

  • Maddow: War on Women at the NRA.
  • Actual Audio: Reince Priebus & the War Against Women
  • Thom on the Snatch project.
  • Stephen on the Democrat War on Women
  • Sam Seder: Women are just like livestock says recently passed Georgia bill.
  • Jen Gramholm with Nancy Pelosi: Women should run for office and ‘kick open the door’.
  • Young Turks: Sarah Silverman’s abortion joke.
  • Alyona debunks the BS about 92.3% of jobs lost by women.

Maddow: Gun violence.

Jen Granholm: The creators of Texts From Hillary.

Sam Seder: Conservatives trust in science declining.

Jon on CNN’s new branded news segments.

Young Turks: Cory Booker heroic fire rescue.

Ann Telnaes: Stand your ground laws.

Kimmel: Unnecessary Censorship.

Stephen does Michelle Obama.

Thom: Fracking earthquakes.

Charging Zimmerman:

  • Jon covers the Zimmerman charging.
  • Liberal Viewer: Will Hannity be a witness against Zimmerman?
  • Ed and Pap: Self-centered Hannity making Trayvon murder all about Hannity.
  • Young Turks: “Stand Your Ground” law in Florida is a ‘classic case’ of NRA lobbying.
  • Thom: Zimmerman had the rules of engagement wrong.
  • Jon on outrage over NBC’s selective editing.
  • Young Turks: Hannity defends Zimmerman.

Newark Mayor Cory Booker saves neighbor from fire.

Pap: Who is responsible for high gas prices.

Remember Big oil tax breaks?

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Drug testing Child Support Recipients!?!

Young Turks: Obama vs. Bush on income equality.

Shit Rep. Allen West says.

Thom: So much more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Poll Analysis: Obama still dominates Romney

by Darryl — Friday, 4/13/12, 2:52 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 347 electoral votes Mean of 191 electoral votes

It’s settled then, Mitt Romney is the inevitable nominee who will carry the torch for Republicans into the general election. So let’s see how he’s doing against President Barack Obama.

Here are the new polls that have been released since my previous analysis two weeks ago:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA SurveyUSA 29-Mar 02-Apr 1995 2.2 61.6 30.6 O+31.0
CO PPP 05-Apr 07-Apr 542 4.2 53 40 O+13
IN Bellwether Research 26-Mar 28-Mar 503 5.0 40 49 R+9
ME Maine PRC 31-Mar 02-Apr 993 3.1 54.6 37.0 O+17.6
ME1 Maine PRC 31-Mar 02-Apr 522 4.3 60.5 33.0 O+27.5
ME2 Maine PRC 31-Mar 02-Apr 471 4.5 48.0 41.4 O+6.6
MA Rasmussen 09-Apr 09-Apr 500 4.5 51 40 O+11
MA Boston Globe 21-Mar 27-Mar 544 4.2 49 33 O+16
MI EPIC/MRA 31-Mar 03-Apr 600 4.0 48 40 O+8
MT Rasmussen 02-Apr 02-Apr 500 4.5 40 49 R+9
NV PPP 29-Mar 01-Apr 553 4.2 51 43 O+8
NH U NH 21-Mar 27-Mar 544 4.2 49 33 O+16
NJ Quinnipiac 03-Apr 09-Apr 1607 2.4 49 40 O+9
NJ Eagleton-Rutgers 21-Mar 27-Mar 601 4.3 58 31 O+27
NM Rasmussen 03-Apr 03-Apr 500 4.5 52 36 O+16
NY Siena 01-Apr 04-Apr 808 3.4 60 35 O+25
NY Quinnipiac 28-Mar 02-Apr 1597 3.0 56 33 O+23
NC Rasmussen 10-Apr 10-Apr 500 4.5 44 46 R+2
NC PPP 04-Apr 07-Apr 975 3.1 49 44 O+5
PA Muhlenberg 23-Mar 01-Apr 492 5.0 45 40 O+5
VA Roanoke College 25-Mar 05-Apr 591 4.0 40.1 45.9 R+5.8

Many of these polls are entirely unsurprising: California, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and New York. Maine isn’t a surprise either. But, for the first time this election season, we have Maine Congressional District data that show Obama on track to win all of the state’s electoral votes.

Obama still leads in Pennsylvania, as he has for the previous six polls going back to early February. The Southwest swing states are sticking with Obama, with good leads for him in Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado. These are states that Bush won in 2004 and Obama won in 2008. Michigan shows no love for a native son—Obama keeps the lead.

In North Carolina we have a PPP poll that gives Obama a +5 lead and a Rasmussen poll that gives Obama a -2 loss. Romney dominates in Montana; and, he leads in Indiana and Virginia, states that went for Obama in 2008. This is our first poll from Indiana, by the way.

The previous analysis showed Obama leading Romney by and average of 347 to 191 electoral votes and a 100% probability of winning an election held then.

Now, after a Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections using the state head-to-head polls, Obama still wins all 100,000. Obama’s average electoral vote total is still 347 to Romney’s 191.

The effective end of the Republican primary this week should mark a change in the dynamics of this race. Expect Romney’s chances to improve considerably as new polls roll in. The full effect may not be seen for another month (depending on the frequency and diversity of polling).

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Quotable

by Darryl — Friday, 4/13/12, 12:41 am

How many of you all have a Swiss bank account?

— Vice President Joe Biden countering Mitt Romney’s claim that President Barack Obama is “out of touch.”

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The Seattle Subway

by Darryl — Wednesday, 4/11/12, 4:38 pm

This week’s Stranger has an awesome story by Dominic Holden on the Seattle Subway proposal:

A group of transit nerds, working with allies in local government, are developing a way to do it and do it fast. With lines above and below grade (more than half of the New York City subway is aboveground), the Seattle Subway would transport riders from downtown to Ballard in nine minutes, according to estimates for modern subway technology. Travel from downtown to West Seattle would take 10 minutes—no matter the traffic. Trains could arrive every five minutes.

Here’s how it would work: Seattle voters would take advantage of the City Transportation Authority, created by the state legislature in 2002, which was intended to fund the monorail. That authority still allows voters to establish a motor vehicle excise tax of up to 2.5 percent for “a transportation system that utilizes train cars running on a guideway.” An initial vote as soon as this November or next year could pay for relatively inexpensive analysis and design work for the first line—probably to Ballard and West Seattle. A subsequent vote would pay for constructing the first line. Repeat as necessary until that map you see is complete.

“It’s a great concept,” says former mayor Greg Nickels, who was integral to building the light-rail lines we have. He agrees the current construction schedule for light rail is “frustratingly slow.”

Read the whole thing…it’s good, thought-provoking stuff.

So…Dominic Holden is now pro-tunnel?!?

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 4/10/12, 3:37 pm

DLBottle

Lots to talk about. Let’s see…the Washington legislature has a stalemate with a huge deadline tonight, Newt is bouncing checks, Santorum has suspended.

Let’s talk about it. Please join us tonight for an evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

Seattle DL meets every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. We begin at 8:00pm, but some folks show up even earlier to enjoy a peaceful dinner.

SPECIAL EVENT: This Thursday (April 12th) the Northwest Progressive Institute (NPI) will hold their 2012 Spring Fundraising Gala Mercer Island Community Center, 8236 SE 24th Street.

The event will benefit NPI and will feature food by Frankie’s Pizza (my favorite pizzeria in the PNW), music, memorable speakers, and great company. The speakers include Senator Maria Cantwell, Congressman Adam Smith, the Honorable Ron Sims, and NPI’s Andrew Villeneuve.

The reception begins at 6:30 PM, main program to begin at 7:15 PM. Tickets are available here or at the door. (The individual rate is $60, household rate is $90. Those living lightly can get in the door for $20, and students who want to volunteer with event setup and takedown are welcome to come for free.)

Romney With Balls – watch more funny videos

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? You’re in luck…there are DLs meeting all over Washington state. Tonight there are also meetings of the Tri-Cities, Bellingham, and Vancouver, WA chapters. And on Thursday, Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets. Next Monday there are meetings of the Woodinville, Olympia, Yakima, and Shelton chapters.

With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

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The special election DOESN’T cost taxpayers $770,000

by Darryl — Monday, 4/9/12, 4:08 pm

Late last week, media sources, both local and national, were abuzz with the figure $770,000 released by Secretary of State Sam Reed. That is, supposedly, the “cost” for a special election to replace Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-1). Inslee recently resigned his seat to run for Governor.

Last Friday I listened to KUOW’s Weekday Friday news round-up as they spent quite a bit of time on the topic of this special election. (Aside: I was a little surprised that the four esteemed journalists in the studio didn’t understand that the Governor cannot appoint a replacement for a Representative…it’s in the Constitution.)

I was puzzled by the figure. I mean, the special election will take place on the same days as the primary and general election. Does it really cost $770,000 to add one race to the ballet for about 11% of the state’s voters? Is that the cost of adding a couple of pages to the voter’s guide for residents of the old 1st CD?

Now…if Inslee had resigned just days earlier (before March 6th), it would have required a stand-alone special election. I could imagine a new election costing taxpayers $770,000. But that isn’t what happened. Inslee, intentionally or not, delayed his resignation and a stand-alone special election was avoided.

For the answer to the puzzling cost figure we turn to TNT.

Katie Blinn, the co-director of elections with the Secretary of state, said there isn’t really an increase in election costs only a change in how those costs are distributed. County elections offices divide the cost of elections among the government entities with matters on the ballot. But state law dictates that the state doesn’t pay anything for state and federal elections held in even-numbered years like this. It only chips in for special elections that are normally held in odd-numbered years and for any election to fill an unexpired U.S. Senate or U.S. House position.
[…]

So there are not additional costs other than the postcard mailing. What Blinn’s response seems to indicate is that the costs will be shared by an additional governmental entity. As state costs go up, the costs borne by local governments will go down.

In short…the election itself costs taxpayers almost nothing extra. What we are talking about with the $770,000 is the transfer of funds between different government entities; budgetary shuffling. Somehow, the mainstream media missed that subtly. And maybe it’s because Sam Reed wasn’t particularly clear about what the $770,000 is.

The Democrats, of course, point out that Sam Reed is the McKenna campaign’s Thurston County co-chair, and that “[t]he conflict of interest is clear.”

The SOS office is also requesting $225,000 to do voter education—essentially to mail out postcards to educate voters about the confusing special election in the old 1st and the regular election in the new first. I’m not sure why the voter’s pamphlet—you know, that document sent to all voters that educates them about the elections and candidates—cannot be used to educate voters about the special election. Perhaps it violates the RCW or something. I don’t know.

So boos and hisses to the majority of the MSM that hyperventilated over the $770,000 “cost” of a special election.

And boos and hisses to the SOS office for failing to clearly communicate to the media the meaning of the $770,000 figure. It’s an integrity issue, given how a high-ball estimate would look like conflict of interest. Reed should have gone out of his way to explain exactly what the figure means, and provide an actual estimate of taxpayer’s costs.

Finally, Reed should have been out front with corrections last week when the media was hyping the figure incorrectly.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 4/6/12, 11:58 pm

Thom with The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Jesus was a Jew; Obama is a Muslim.

Stephen does Nikki Haley.

Sam Seder: James Murdoch resigns as BSkyB Chairman.

Young Turks: Rep. Allen West…Gay Marriage not important.

Pres. Obama speaks at Easter prayer breakfast.

Episode 9 of the Not Exactly Rick Snyder Show.

Thom: Some more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Young Turks: Crazy new FAUX News conspiracy theory.

The Republican War on Women:

  • Young Turks: Of course there is a GOP War on Women!
  • Roy Zimmerman with a Kansas version of Vote Republicans:
  • Jennifer Granholm: Sixteen-year-old Laela Zaidi weighs in on the Republican War on Women.
  • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: The GOP’s war on the War on Women
  • Maddow: Sen. Murkowski ‘gets’ what GOP does not.
  • Ann Telnaes: The Republican woman problem.
  • Young Turks: Nikki Haley, “Women Don’t Care About Contraception.”
  • RNC Chair says GOP War on Women fictional as War on Caterpillars?

Pap: The death of the GOP.

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

White House: West Wing Week.

Sam Seder: Supreme Courts strip-‘n-probe ruling.

Jon on Sarah Palin’s “Today Show” gig.

Ann Telnaes: Real aftermath of the Gulf oil spill.

Stephen: Disheartening improved employment news.

Thom: The President strikes back.

Mark Fiore: Abraca-Tax-Cut.

Jon: Can you make Bill-O pay $4.00 for a shrimp.

Obama: The story of “Fired Up, Ready to Go:

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Paul Ryan “misspoke” on calling Generals liars.

White House: The Google White House tour projet.

Obama speaks at the White House forum on women and the economy.

Thom: A well-oiled machine to privatize colleges that doesn’t depend on facts.

The G.O.P. Primary Reality Show:

  • ONN: Romney to travel back in time to kill liberal versions of himself.
  • Mitt Romney versus Reality.
  • Mitt Romney is lying AGAIN!
  • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Mitt’s jealousy of Air Force One.
  • Actual Audio: Mitt’s funny story.
  • More Mitt Romney versus Reality
  • Ann Telnaes: Unzipping the inner Mitt.
  • Romney v. Obama on tax breaks for Big Oil.
  • Jon: Rick Santorum’s big night of losing
  • Buzz 60: Poll shows Santorum losing in his home state.
  • Young Turks: Santorum campaign staffers are complaining.
  • Kimmel weighs in on pink balls (via Indecision Forever).
  • The Newt Gingrich “Open Marriage” campaign.

Young Turks: The Wingnut “Obama is a bully” theory.

Sam Seder: GOP-er fights against Gay Marriage until she realizes she is gay.

Pres. Obama’s Passover message.

Ann Telnaes: Masters of their universe.

Maddow: “You have one new message from the Secretary of State”.

The White House Carpet Crisis.

Jennifer Granholm and Karen Middleton (President of Emerge America): Getting women into politics.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Rep. Steve King (R) on DADT in the workplace.

ALEC ATTACK:

  • Ed and Pap: ALEC scoundrels exposed.
  • Young Turks: Stop ALEC and its founder’s efforts to disenfranchise minorities.
  • Thom: ALEC may have met its match.

Newsy: Olbermann talks it.

Progressives hold Republicans accountable for Medicare vote: .

Buzz 60: March Jobs report.

Sam Seder: Surprise! Repeal of DADT has caused zero problems.

Young Turks: Ayn Rand, Glenn Beck, and Teabaggers.

Bill Maher and friends on Zimmerman.

Maddow: Update on the Michigan story.

Alyona: How much of your tax dollars go to the Military.

Jon on The death of the GOP.
w.indecisionforever.com/blog/2012/04/06/the-daily-show-on-barack-obamas-email-spam’>Obama’s email spam.

Thom with even more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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The Dems new Jewish scandal

by Darryl — Thursday, 4/5/12, 10:02 pm

The right-wing media has a huge breaking scandal….

The Democratic Party’s newly appointed Jewish outreach liaison is pictured on Facebook in a series of provocative photos with her friends holding dollar bills and referring to themselves as “Jewbags” and the “Jew cash money team.”

Dani Gilbert, who has been a staffer in the office of Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D., Fla.), was recently appointed as the Democratic National Committee’s Jewish outreach liaison, according to her Twitter feed.

Ooohh….that sounds weally, weally, wascally really, really bad.

The whole thing supposedly exposes a huge riff between Pres. Obama and DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

Here is the offending picture….

Dani-Gilbert

There she is kissing the money!

Except, wait. That Facebook page is from January 2006. I presume Ms. Gilbert was in college (or maybe high school) and was goofing around with some friends.

Inexcusable still. It’s scandalous!

Romney-Bain-Capital-money-shot

Clearly, Ms. Gilbert should be fired and forbidden from participation in politics.

And kept away from young children.

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Hijacking Michigan

by Darryl — Thursday, 4/5/12, 9:13 pm

Rachael Maddow has a pretty remarkable story here….

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Sub-SuperTuesday Liveblogging

by Darryl — Tuesday, 4/3/12, 5:02 pm

Why the hell not? I mean, soon we won’t have Newt or Santorum to kick the shit out of anymore.

Newt is already out of the picture. But Lil’ Ricky Santorum keeps on Mitt like a bad case of Giardia. Cesspool ensues.

The polls close in Wisconsin, D.C. and Maryland at 5:00 PM PDT. That’s now!

5:04: It’s all tied up in all three states, with 0% reporting…

5:06: I got a call this afternoon from my favorite neice, Maria Elaine Valdez Holman. “Guess what, uncle Darryl, I voted today,” she said with some excitement. My guess is that most 18 year-olds don’t get quite so excited about voting, but Maria has become quite passionate about politics. She is really looking forward to voting Gov. Scott Walker’s ass out of office. Needless to say, she got her voting issues resolved, but not without some considerable effort, thanks to Walker.

5:32: With less than 1% reporting, we have some results for Maryland:

  • Romney, 53.2%
  • Santorum, 26.6%
  • Gingrich, 10.4%
  • Paul, 8.3%

5:41: With 1% reporting in Maryland, CNN boldly calls it for the Mittster.

5:42: We just got a teevee turned to CNN at the Ale House (that can be hard to do during Basketball season, and there is a Women’s final on tonight). Anyway, it seems I was misunderinformed…polls in Wisconsin haven’t closed yet. I believe they close at 6:00 PM PDT.

6:00: Polls are closing in Wisconsin. Wolf Blitzer puts his “intensity” face on.

CNN projection based on exit polls:

  • Romney, 43%
  • Santorum, 35%
  • Gingrich, 11%
  • Paul, 6%

6:02: NPR points out that turn-out may be much lower than expected in Wisconsin. That’s bad news for Scott Walker. The G.O.P. voters are simply not all that engaged.

6:06: CNN projects that Mitt Romney wins in D.C. What took them so long…I mean, Santorum didn’t even make the ballot. But I’m grateful we have that settled.

6:07: Dear CNN…When you have a text insert saying, “Santorum to speak soon” up for 45 minutes, you ought to be asking yourself…”Are we being played by the Santorum campaign?”

6:09: CNN has Ari Fleischer on the teevee. Without sound, I have no idea what he is saying. But I’m guessing he is lying–after all, his lips are moving.

6:14: Finally…after almost an hour of pushing it…Santorum is speaking. All smiles and waiving signs. This looser is on fucking Mars! Oh…wait. He’s giving the speech from Mars, PA.

6:17: CNN banner: “Breaking News: Awaiting Wisconsin Results”. That’s not fucking breaking news. We have been awaiting these results for our entire fucking life!
[Read more…]

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 4/3/12, 4:02 pm

DLBottlePlease join us tonight for another evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. Tonight’s primaries are in Wisconsin, Maryland, and DC.

Seattle DL meets every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our regular starting time is 8:00pm, but feel free to show up before then to catch the earliest election returns.

Naturally, we’ll be doing a bit of live blogging of the results.

Can’t make it to Seattle? There is also a meeting tonight of the Tri-Cities chapter, and the Tacoma chapter meets this Thursday.

With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

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Headline of the day

by Darryl — Tuesday, 4/3/12, 3:33 pm

US Supreme Court Affirms Warrantless Ass Searches

Who else…but Goldy.

Goldy goes on to explain that Washington has laws that require a warrant for incarceratory cavity probes.

The gist of the Supreme Court ruling is that jailers have the right to invasive searches without warrants because of the heightened security environment of a jail or prison.

Yet…somehow, lacking warrantless ass searches, Washington state jails and prisons manage to not spiral into utter chaos.

Maybe it’s the climate.

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Poll Analysis: Inslee 38%, McKenna 34%

by Darryl — Monday, 4/2/12, 8:33 pm

A new Grove Insight poll of the gubernatorial race between Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-1) and Washington state AG Rob McKenna (R) shows Inslee with a +2% lead over McKenna. The poll surveyed 500 likely Washington voters (M.O.E. 4.4%) from the 26th to 28th of March.

Before doing my usual Monte Carlo analysis of the results, I want to point out that with this poll and the previous Grove Insight poll, I debated whether or not to analyze the results. One of my rules for polls is to, “ignore polls released by party organizations or candidates.” The issue is that campaigns and party organizations commission polls all the time, but we rarely get to see the polling results. When they are released, there is a strategic reason. Therefore, including such polls can lead to a biased overall interpretation, even if the polls themselves are completely honest and accurate.

Both of the Grove Insight polls are, apparently, commissioned by the SEIU. Even though SEIU isn’t part of the campaign or the Democratic party, SEIU has recently endorsed Inslee and they obviously share elements of their politics. I really don’t know if Grove Insight would have released these results if they had been bad for Inslee. It is a close call, but I opted to go with publishing an analysis.

Of the 500 respondents, there were only 360 who had a preference for either Inslee or McKenna, so the effective margin of error is actually bigger than the 4.4% given in the release. A Monte Carlo analysis that held a million simulated elections gave Inslee a win 762,761 times and McKenna a win 225,707 times.

The analysis suggests that, if the election was today, Inslee would have a 77.2% probability of beating McKenna. Note that by statistical conventions we would call this a tie because the winning percentage doesn’t exceed 95%. Here is the distribution of election outcomes resulting from the analysis:

GroveInsightMarch

This makes three consecutive polls that contradict the narrative that McKenna is the front-runner:

InsleeMcKennaApril2

Although I want input from another poll or two, it is beginning to look like this race is flipping—gone from McKenna having a hefty lead, to a tie. If correct, it’s pretty remarkable is how fast things have turned around….

[The most recent analysis in this race can be found here.]

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 3/30/12, 11:58 pm

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Roy Zimmerman: Texas verse of “Vote Republican”.

Medicare, Affordable Care, and Health Care:

  • Actual audio: Mitt versus health care.
  • Stephen on the death of Obamacare.
  • Newsy: Do oral arguments matter?
  • Thom: SCOTUS, POTUS and budget for all.
  • Ed and Pap: The GOP plan…if you get sick, you are going to die!
  • Ann Telnaes: The wrong health care debate.
  • Jon on SCOTUS and Obamacare.
  • Mitt and Paul Ryan:
  • Mark Fiore: Shoot-em-up Charlie discovers ALEC.
  • Ann Telnaes: The best health care money can buy
  • Darcy Burner on Medicare.
  • Pap: Republicans misrepresent basics of Affordable Care Act.

Jennifer Granholm: Outrage over the war on women is deafening.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Sen. Rand Paul shills for Big Oil.

V.P. Biden says “Thank you, Dr. Pepper” to Dr. Paper.

Stephen on Obama’s secret plot to not take away your guns.

The G.O.P. CrazyFest:

  • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Romney claims ‘Russia is #1 geo-political foe’ ?!
  • Maddow: Romney and Santorum oblivious in Wisconsin.
  • Mitt Romeny: Wrong for women.
  • Thom: Does Santorum have pink balls?
  • Young Turks: Santorum hates pink balls.
  • Stephen has some stand-up material for Mitt.
  • Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Abortion and devils and Santorum, oh my!
  • Crazy Alert: Romney’s cars are Movin’ On Up.
  • Mitt: Not ready to lead.
  • Sam Seder: Did Santorum almost call Obama the N-word?
  • Maddow: Mitt and taxes and foreign policy weaknesses.
  • Big Oil and Mitt Romney.
  • Young Turks: Did Santorum almost call Obama the N-word?
  • Jim Norton on Rick Santorum et al.
  • Jon: Santorum and Romney versus the media.
  • Young Turks: A tribute to Newt Gingrich

Greenman: What we knew about global warming in 1982.

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

White House: West Wing Week:

Jon: Obama’s hot mic gaffe.

Sam Seder: It isn’t just phone hacking for Newscorp anymore.

Death Sentence for Trayvon:

  • Sam Seder: The demonetization of Trayvon Martin.
  • Jasiri X: A Song for Trayvon (h/t Howie in Seattle).
  • Young Turks: The Trayvon Martin smear campaign.
  • Brett: Hoodies and hairpieces.
  • Red State Update: George Zimmerman’s Other 911 Calls:
  • Sam Seder: Freedom unless you are wearing a Hoodie.
  • Ed and Pap: Tea Party rushes to defend Trayvon Martin killer.
  • Young Turks: George Zimmerman video analysis.
  • Jon on the Media’s coverage of Trayvon Martin’s death
  • Young Turks: A Hoodie for Trayvon Martin Gets Rep. Rush kicked out.
  • Rep Bobby Rush removed from House floor for wearing hoodie (via TalkingPointsMemo).

Roy Zimmerman: Utah verse of “Vote Republican”.

Thom with The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Obama: Repeal subsidies for oil companies.

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News’ biased reporting on CA prisons.

Sam Seder: Dick Cheney has a heart.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Poll Analysis: Obama strengthens lead over Romney

by Darryl — Friday, 3/30/12, 7:11 pm

Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 347 electoral votes Mean of 191 electoral votes

There have been fourteen new state head-to-head polls taken since my previous analysis of the race between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.

No big surprises in them. Obama leads Romney in the three classic swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania poll and Ohio (twice). Obama also leads in Virginia and three Wisconsin polls. On the other hand, Nebraska CD 2 has swing slightly in favor of Romney.

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AR Talk Business-Hendrix College 26-Mar 26-Mar 759 3.6 33.0 56.5 R+23.5
CT Quinnipiac 14-Mar 19-Mar 1622 2.4 53 37 O+16
FL Quinnipiac 20-Mar 26-Mar 1228 2.8 49 42 O+7
MA PPP 16-Mar 18-Mar 936 3.2 58 35 O+23
NE PPP 22-Mar 25-Mar 1028 3.1 39 51 R+12
NE1 PPP 22-Mar 25-Mar 432 — 41 49 R+8
NE2 PPP 22-Mar 25-Mar 277 — 45 46 R+1
NE3 PPP 22-Mar 25-Mar 319 — 31 57 R+26
NH ARG 15-Mar 18-Mar 557 4.2 48 41 O+7
OH Rasmussen 26-Mar 26-Mar 500 4.5 48 40 O+8
OH Quinnipiac 20-Mar 26-Mar 1246 2.8 47 41 O+6
OR SurveyUSA 14-Mar 19-Mar 1615 2.5 49.8 38.8 O+11.0
PA Quinnipiac 20-Mar 26-Mar 1232 2.8 45 42 O+3
VA PPP 20-Mar 20-Mar 500 4.5 51 42 O+9
WI Rasmussen 27-Mar 27-Mar 500 4.5 52 41 O+11
WI Marist 26-Mar 27-Mar 1400 2.6 52 35 O+17
WI Marquette Law School 22-Mar 25-Mar 707 — 48.2 43.2 O+4.9

The previous analysis had Obama leading Romney by an average of 339 to 199 electoral votes. Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins all 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 347 to Romney’s 191 electoral votes.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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