Poll Analysis: Obama still dominates Romney

ObamaRomney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 347 electoral votesMean of 191 electoral votes

It’s settled then, Mitt Romney is the inevitable nominee who will carry the torch for Republicans into the general election. So let’s see how he’s doing against President Barack Obama.

Here are the new polls that have been released since my previous analysis two weeks ago:

startendsample%%%
stpolldatedatesizeMOEORdiff
CASurveyUSA29-Mar02-Apr19952.261.630.6O+31.0
COPPP05-Apr07-Apr5424.25340O+13
INBellwether Research26-Mar28-Mar5035.04049R+9
MEMaine PRC31-Mar02-Apr9933.154.637.0O+17.6
ME1Maine PRC31-Mar02-Apr5224.360.533.0O+27.5
ME2Maine PRC31-Mar02-Apr4714.548.041.4O+6.6
MARasmussen09-Apr09-Apr5004.55140O+11
MABoston Globe21-Mar27-Mar5444.24933O+16
MIEPIC/MRA31-Mar03-Apr6004.04840O+8
MTRasmussen02-Apr02-Apr5004.54049R+9
NVPPP29-Mar01-Apr5534.25143O+8
NHU NH21-Mar27-Mar5444.24933O+16
NJQuinnipiac03-Apr09-Apr16072.44940O+9
NJEagleton-Rutgers21-Mar27-Mar6014.35831O+27
NMRasmussen03-Apr03-Apr5004.55236O+16
NYSiena01-Apr04-Apr8083.46035O+25
NYQuinnipiac28-Mar02-Apr15973.05633O+23
NCRasmussen10-Apr10-Apr5004.54446R+2
NCPPP04-Apr07-Apr9753.14944O+5
PAMuhlenberg23-Mar01-Apr4925.04540O+5
VARoanoke College25-Mar05-Apr5914.040.145.9R+5.8

Many of these polls are entirely unsurprising: California, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and New York. Maine isn’t a surprise either. But, for the first time this election season, we have Maine Congressional District data that show Obama on track to win all of the state’s electoral votes.

Obama still leads in Pennsylvania, as he has for the previous six polls going back to early February. The Southwest swing states are sticking with Obama, with good leads for him in Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado. These are states that Bush won in 2004 and Obama won in 2008. Michigan shows no love for a native son—Obama keeps the lead.

In North Carolina we have a PPP poll that gives Obama a +5 lead and a Rasmussen poll that gives Obama a -2 loss. Romney dominates in Montana; and, he leads in Indiana and Virginia, states that went for Obama in 2008. This is our first poll from Indiana, by the way.

The previous analysis showed Obama leading Romney by and average of 347 to 191 electoral votes and a 100% probability of winning an election held then.

Now, after a Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections using the state head-to-head polls, Obama still wins all 100,000. Obama’s average electoral vote total is still 347 to Romney’s 191.

The effective end of the Republican primary this week should mark a change in the dynamics of this race. Expect Romney’s chances to improve considerably as new polls roll in. The full effect may not be seen for another month (depending on the frequency and diversity of polling).

Electoral College Map

AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLousianaMaineMarylandMassachusettesMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Electoral College Map

GeorgiaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoDelawareConnecticutFloridaMississippiAlabamaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

  • 350 electoral votes with a 7.96% probability
  • 351 electoral votes with a 7.19% probability
  • 356 electoral votes with a 4.61% probability
  • 357 electoral votes with a 4.26% probability
  • 341 electoral votes with a 3.48% probability
  • 361 electoral votes with a 3.27% probability
  • 335 electoral votes with a 3.22% probability
  • 342 electoral votes with a 3.09% probability
  • 336 electoral votes with a 2.69% probability
  • 362 electoral votes with a 2.44% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 100.0%, Romney wins 0.0%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 347.4 (15.2)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 190.6 (15.2)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 350 (314, 373)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 188 (165, 224)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

ThresholdSafe+ Strong+ Leans+ Weak
Safe Obama164
Strong Obama141305
Leans Obama4545350
Weak Obama000350
Weak Romney111188
Leans Romney1818187
Strong Romney120169
Safe Romney49

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

00EC#Total%%ObamaRomney
84VotespollsVotesObamaRomney% wins% wins
AL91*754 37.8 62.2 0.0100.0
AK30*(0)(100)
AZ111455 44.0 56.0 3.5 96.5
AR61679 36.8 63.2 0.0100.0
CA5511838 66.8 33.2100.0 0.0
CO91504 56.9 43.1 98.7 1.3
CT711460 58.9 41.1100.0 0.0
DE30(100)(0)
DC30(100)(0)
FL2921563 53.2 46.8 96.7 3.3
GA161*1061 46.3 53.7 4.3 95.7
HI41*517 64.8 35.2100.0 0.0
ID40*(0)(100)
IL201*546 61.5 38.5100.0 0.0
IN111447 45.0 55.0 6.2 93.8
IA61*720 48.9 51.1 34.1 65.9
KS61*442 45.0 55.0 7.0 93.0
KY81*528 45.5 54.5 6.6 93.4
LA81*542 41.1 58.9 0.1 99.9
ME21909 59.6 40.4100.0 0.0
ME111488 64.8 35.2100.0 0.0
ME211421 53.7 46.3 86.0 14.0
MD100(100)(0)
MA1131773 60.1 39.9100.0 0.0
MI161528 54.5 45.5 93.2 6.8
MN101*461 57.5 42.5 99.0 1.0
MS61*717 40.0 60.0 0.0100.0
MO101455 45.1 54.9 6.7 93.3
MT31445 44.9 55.1 6.6 93.4
NE21925 43.4 56.6 0.3 99.7
NE111389 45.5 54.5 10.6 89.4
NE211252 49.6 50.4 46.7 53.3
NE311281 35.2 64.8 0.0100.0
NV62990 53.7 46.3 94.9 5.1
NH42942 56.7 43.3 99.8 0.2
NJ1421965 57.8 42.2100.0 0.0
NM51440 59.1 40.9 99.6 0.4
NY2922189 63.0 37.0100.0 0.0
NC1521357 51.4 48.6 77.7 22.3
ND31*480 41.3 58.8 0.5 99.5
OH1821537 53.7 46.3 98.1 1.9
OK70(0)(100)
OR711431 56.2 43.8100.0 0.0
PA2021489 52.0 48.0 86.7 13.3
RI41*495 59.4 40.6 99.8 0.2
SC91*1833 51.7 48.3 85.6 14.4
SD31*442 44.3 55.7 4.7 95.3
TN111*1221 48.2 51.8 17.5 82.5
TX381*449 42.3 57.7 0.9 99.1
UT61*688 33.0 67.0 0.0100.0
VT31*728 63.7 36.3100.0 0.0
VA1331924 52.4 47.6 93.5 6.5
WA121*1150 58.3 41.7100.0 0.0
WV51*811 38.0 62.0 0.0100.0
WI1032322 57.0 43.0100.0 0.0
WY30(0)(100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Comments

  1. 1

    Politically Incorrect spews:

    Obama will win in November. The Dems should concentrate on taking back the House and gaining more seats in the Senate.

  2. 2

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @1 I have a feeling the House will take care of itself after the GOP’s antics last summer.

  3. 4

    rhp6033 spews:

    Any chance at all that Ron Paul will take a single state, or will he simply syphon off Republican votes?

  4. 5

    rhp6033 spews:

    Wow – lots of blue in the lesser-occupied states in the middle, the higher-populated coasts are almost all Democrat.

  5. 6

    Politically Incorrect spews:

    “Any chance at all that Ron Paul will take a single state, or will he simply syphon off Republican votes?”

    Don’t know, but I plan on writing-in Ron Paul when I get my ballot for the 2012 election. I stood in line for nearly four hours to write-in Ron Paul in 2008. It’ll be easier this time ’cause all I have to do is vote, sign, enclose, and then drop off the whole shebang at the local fire department or any of the other places where you can drop off your mail-in ballot. Heck, you can even mail-in the damn thing, but I’m too cheap to pay the postage!

  6. 7

    Liberal Scientist is a slut who sometimes wears a hoodie spews:

    I stood in line for nearly four hours to write-in Ron Paul in 2008.

    OMG, and you freely admit that?!

    It’ll be easier this time ’cause all I have to do is vote, sign, enclose, and then drop off the whole shebang at the local fire department or any of the other places where you can drop off your mail-in ballot. Heck, you can even mail-in the damn thing, but I’m too cheap to pay the postage!

    Taking advantage of free government services – moocher!! Don’t you people want to abolish the Post Office? Hypocrit.

  7. 8

    Politically Incorrect spews:

    “Taking advantage of free government services – moocher!! Don’t you people want to abolish the Post Office? Hypocrit.”

    No, I don’t have anything against the Post Office. What you think of as “mooching” is being frugal. If the guys at Pierce County elections have a box out there for my mail-in ballot, and I happen to be driving by that office, why shouldn’t I just drop it in the box and go about my business? Or drop my ballot in another one of the convenient ballot drop off points around where I live?

    For the record, I don’t remember ever advocating the abolishment of the Post Office. If you can dig through the posts over the past several years and find one in which I say to end the Post Office, then you can call me a hypocrit. Otherwise, I suggest you retract that accusation.

    “OMG, and you freely admit that?!”

    Yes, I freely admit that I voted for Ron Paul for President in the 2008 election by writing his name in on my ballot. If you don’t like it, you can keep it to yourself because I’m free to vote for whomever I choose. You don’t have a problem with free choice, do you?

  8. 9

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @8 The fact you’re free to vote for whomever you choose does not, ipso facto, make your choice respectable.

  9. 10

    Politically Incorrect - free markets, free minds, free people spews:

    @9,

    You should know about not being respectable, rodent: you whole existence is a ridiculous, shamefull mess. Your comment applies equally to your political choice, also, rodent!

  10. 11

    yd spews:

    3: Great, maybe that 15,660 trillion on the clock will start going backwords after all this wonderful profit is racked up.. Somehow I don’t think that profit is going to make a hell of beans against the debt and deficits this crazy fool is racking up.

  11. 12

    spews:

    I tried to email you at darryl@hominidviews.com via the link on your byline, but it bounced as undeliverable, so I’ll post this here…

    When looking at your latest Obama/Romney simulation results, noticed a couple of errors…

    The Michigan EPCI/MRA poll is actually Obama 47, Romney 43. You were looking at The January numbers in a table they had showing older results. The April results are right underneath or to the left.

    The poll you have listed for New Hampshire seems to actually be a Massachusetts poll (the same one you have listed above for Massachussets) unless you just linked to the wrong source… if you linked to the wrong source, can you point me at the actual NH poll? Thanks!

    Thanks for the great work on these simulations!

  12. 13

    Meme1 spews:

    11: When the Republicans nominated Romney, a guy whose plan calls for huge tax cuts and minor spending cuts along with huge spending increases, resulting in even bigger debts and deficits, they renounced any right to say even a single word about the current debt; please try again next term.

  13. 14

    Liberal Scientist is a slut who occasionally wears a hoodie spews:

    @10
    Dingbat glibertarian: Roger, and all rabbits, are lagomorphs, not rodents. Please try to maintain a modicum of intelligence in your insults.