| Obama | Romney |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 347 electoral votes | Mean of 191 electoral votes |
There have been fourteen new state head-to-head polls taken since my previous analysis of the race between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.
No big surprises in them. Obama leads Romney in the three classic swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania poll and Ohio (twice). Obama also leads in Virginia and three Wisconsin polls. On the other hand, Nebraska CD 2 has swing slightly in favor of Romney.
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| AR | Talk Business-Hendrix College | 26-Mar | 26-Mar | 759 | 3.6 | 33.0 | 56.5 | R+23.5 |
| CT | Quinnipiac | 14-Mar | 19-Mar | 1622 | 2.4 | 53 | 37 | O+16 |
| FL | Quinnipiac | 20-Mar | 26-Mar | 1228 | 2.8 | 49 | 42 | O+7 |
| MA | PPP | 16-Mar | 18-Mar | 936 | 3.2 | 58 | 35 | O+23 |
| NE | PPP | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 1028 | 3.1 | 39 | 51 | R+12 |
| NE1 | PPP | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 432 | — | 41 | 49 | R+8 |
| NE2 | PPP | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 277 | — | 45 | 46 | R+1 |
| NE3 | PPP | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 319 | — | 31 | 57 | R+26 |
| NH | ARG | 15-Mar | 18-Mar | 557 | 4.2 | 48 | 41 | O+7 |
| OH | Rasmussen | 26-Mar | 26-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 48 | 40 | O+8 |
| OH | Quinnipiac | 20-Mar | 26-Mar | 1246 | 2.8 | 47 | 41 | O+6 |
| OR | SurveyUSA | 14-Mar | 19-Mar | 1615 | 2.5 | 49.8 | 38.8 | O+11.0 |
| PA | Quinnipiac | 20-Mar | 26-Mar | 1232 | 2.8 | 45 | 42 | O+3 |
| VA | PPP | 20-Mar | 20-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 51 | 42 | O+9 |
| WI | Rasmussen | 27-Mar | 27-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 52 | 41 | O+11 |
| WI | Marist | 26-Mar | 27-Mar | 1400 | 2.6 | 52 | 35 | O+17 |
| WI | Marquette Law School | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 707 | — | 48.2 | 43.2 | O+4.9 |
The previous analysis had Obama leading Romney by an average of 339 to 199 electoral votes. Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins all 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 347 to Romney’s 191 electoral votes.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:
- 350 electoral votes with a 6.22% probability
- 351 electoral votes with a 5.95% probability
- 341 electoral votes with a 5.33% probability
- 342 electoral votes with a 5.28% probability
- 347 electoral votes with a 3.85% probability
- 356 electoral votes with a 3.60% probability
- 357 electoral votes with a 3.37% probability
- 336 electoral votes with a 3.22% probability
- 335 electoral votes with a 3.14% probability
- 352 electoral votes with a 3.09% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 100.0%, Romney wins 0.0%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 346.9 (13.6)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 191.1 (13.6)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 348 (318, 373)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 190 (165, 220)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 205 | |||
| Strong Obama | 102 | 307 | ||
| Leans Obama | 43 | 43 | 350 | |
| Weak Obama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 350 |
| Weak Romney | 1 | 1 | 1 | 188 |
| Leans Romney | 21 | 21 | 187 | |
| Strong Romney | 104 | 166 | ||
| Safe Romney | 62 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 0 | 0 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 8 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | Romney | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1* | 754 | 37.8 | 62.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AK | 3 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| AZ | 11 | 1 | 455 | 44.0 | 56.0 | 3.4 | 96.6 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1 | 679 | 36.8 | 63.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 1* | 460 | 62.0 | 38.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 1* | 730 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 65.3 | 34.7 | ||
| CT | 7 | 1 | 1460 | 58.9 | 41.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DE | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| DC | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| FL | 29 | 2 | 1563 | 53.2 | 46.8 | 96.6 | 3.4 | ||
| GA | 16 | 1* | 1061 | 46.3 | 53.7 | 4.3 | 95.7 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 517 | 64.8 | 35.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| IL | 20 | 1* | 546 | 61.5 | 38.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| IN | 11 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| IA | 6 | 1* | 720 | 48.9 | 51.1 | 33.7 | 66.3 | ||
| KS | 6 | 1* | 442 | 45.0 | 55.0 | 7.8 | 92.2 | ||
| KY | 8 | 1* | 528 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 6.6 | 93.4 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1* | 542 | 41.1 | 58.9 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| ME | 4 | 1 | 1168 | 62.3 | 37.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MD | 10 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| MA | 11 | 1 | 871 | 62.3 | 37.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 1* | 2645 | 60.7 | 39.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MN | 10 | 1* | 461 | 57.5 | 42.5 | 99.0 | 1.0 | ||
| MS | 6 | 1* | 717 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MO | 10 | 1 | 455 | 45.1 | 54.9 | 6.6 | 93.4 | ||
| MT | 3 | 1* | 445 | 46.1 | 53.9 | 12.0 | 88.0 | ||
| NE | 2 | 2 | 1360 | 42.4 | 57.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| NE1 | 1 | 1 | 389 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 10.8 | 89.2 | ||
| NE2 | 1 | 1 | 252 | 49.6 | 50.4 | 45.7 | 54.3 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 1 | 281 | 35.2 | 64.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| NV | 6 | 1 | 470 | 53.2 | 46.8 | 82.9 | 17.1 | ||
| NH | 4 | 1 | 495 | 53.9 | 46.1 | 89.2 | 10.8 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 1 | 696 | 57.5 | 42.5 | 99.7 | 0.3 | ||
| NM | 5 | 1* | 455 | 60.4 | 39.6 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| NY | 29 | 1* | 760 | 63.8 | 36.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 1 | 764 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 72.8 | 27.2 | ||
| ND | 3 | 1* | 480 | 41.3 | 58.8 | 0.4 | 99.6 | ||
| OH | 18 | 3 | 2861 | 55.2 | 44.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| OK | 7 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| OR | 7 | 1 | 1431 | 56.2 | 43.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| PA | 20 | 3 | 2778 | 52.9 | 47.1 | 98.6 | 1.4 | ||
| RI | 4 | 1* | 495 | 59.4 | 40.6 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| SC | 9 | 1* | 1833 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 84.5 | 15.5 | ||
| SD | 3 | 1* | 442 | 44.3 | 55.7 | 5.0 | 95.0 | ||
| TN | 11 | 1* | 1221 | 48.2 | 51.8 | 18.7 | 81.3 | ||
| TX | 38 | 1* | 449 | 42.3 | 57.7 | 1.2 | 98.8 | ||
| UT | 6 | 1* | 688 | 33.0 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1* | 728 | 63.7 | 36.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 3 | 2499 | 56.8 | 43.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WA | 12 | 1* | 1150 | 58.3 | 41.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1* | 811 | 38.0 | 62.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| WI | 10 | 3 | 2330 | 57.0 | 43.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WY | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
Given that Romney fails the character test, fails the policy test, fails the popularity test, and already had zero chance of beating the incumbent in previous polls, how is it possible for him to do even worse?
Stealing it!
It is of course possible the voting machines will say the Romney-bot won. They routed Ohio’s votes through Tennessee in 2004 for a reason, after all – but Obama is going to have such an overwhelming lead in all polls (even Rasmussen!) that no one would believe the O’Dell boys if they tried that again.
Nice to see all that blue – Wisconsin, S. Carolina, N. Carolina.
I’m wondering how the Boeing workers being shifted to S. Carolina factory might change the dynamics of the local political structure there. Boeing thought they could hire everything locally, but over the past two years they have been recruiting heavily among their existing workers in the Puget Sound region to re-locate to Charleston, at least temporarily. What’s badly needed there are the higher-level skills, such as Q.C., electoral and avionics techs, etc.
Polls published today showing Romney winning the three primaries scheduled for Tuesday (Wisconsin, Maryland, and D.C.) by comfortable margins. But Gingrich trails in fourth place, behind even Ron Paul, with about 8% of the vote.
Romney ahead in Tuesday contests
I guess it’s no big suprise, since Newt considered the south-east to be his base, and these are definately NOT considered the south-eastern states. And Newt isn’t even campaigning now, he’s just phoning it in now that he doesn’t have any big-money contributors left. But seriously, how long does Gingrich have to stay in the race before he gets the message that even Republicans don’t want him, and even the Tea Party trusts Romney more than they do Gingrich?
My guess is that for Gingrich, it’s all about his ego. He wants either Santorum or Romney to come on bended knee, kissing his ring as he genuflects and humbly askes Newt for his endorsement, at which time Newt will deign to issue his list of demands in return (Vice Presidency? Secty of State? Ambassador to France?)
But it seems that neither Santorum nor Romney is willing to do that, preferring to defeat Gingrich in the trenches so they can ignore him later. Romney can probably get away with this, but Santorum will need Gengrich’s delegates at the convention in order to keep Romney from bulldozing his way through to the nomination.
I don’t get this Obama 99.99% chance thing. No one has that good of a chance in any election except in dictatorships. Obama is probably going to win no doubt about it. But better than 99,999 in 100,000 Im very certain that is an impossible number. If it is the truth, why is anyone, including Obama himself campaigning. Instead, he could be watching the NBA Playoffs, a full season of White Sox baseball coming up, and as soon as that winds down the NFL season will start up. Given a 99.99% chance of winning, wouldnt that be a better use of time than campaigning? Obama doesnt think so. So my point is, whats up with this 99.99% chance thing in all these simulations?