Poll Analysis: Obama strengthens lead over Romney

ObamaRomney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 347 electoral votesMean of 191 electoral votes

There have been fourteen new state head-to-head polls taken since my previous analysis of the race between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.

No big surprises in them. Obama leads Romney in the three classic swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania poll and Ohio (twice). Obama also leads in Virginia and three Wisconsin polls. On the other hand, Nebraska CD 2 has swing slightly in favor of Romney.

startendsample%%%
stpolldatedatesizeMOEORdiff
ARTalk Business-Hendrix College26-Mar26-Mar7593.633.056.5R+23.5
CTQuinnipiac14-Mar19-Mar16222.45337O+16
FLQuinnipiac20-Mar26-Mar12282.84942O+7
MAPPP16-Mar18-Mar9363.25835O+23
NEPPP22-Mar25-Mar10283.13951R+12
NE1PPP22-Mar25-Mar4324149R+8
NE2PPP22-Mar25-Mar2774546R+1
NE3PPP22-Mar25-Mar3193157R+26
NHARG15-Mar18-Mar5574.24841O+7
OHRasmussen26-Mar26-Mar5004.54840O+8
OHQuinnipiac20-Mar26-Mar12462.84741O+6
ORSurveyUSA14-Mar19-Mar16152.549.838.8O+11.0
PAQuinnipiac20-Mar26-Mar12322.84542O+3
VAPPP20-Mar20-Mar5004.55142O+9
WIRasmussen27-Mar27-Mar5004.55241O+11
WIMarist26-Mar27-Mar14002.65235O+17
WIMarquette Law School22-Mar25-Mar70748.243.2O+4.9

The previous analysis had Obama leading Romney by an average of 339 to 199 electoral votes. Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins all 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 347 to Romney’s 191 electoral votes.

Electoral College Map

AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLousianaMaineMarylandMassachusettesMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Electoral College Map

GeorgiaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoDelawareConnecticutFloridaMississippiAlabamaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

  • 350 electoral votes with a 6.22% probability
  • 351 electoral votes with a 5.95% probability
  • 341 electoral votes with a 5.33% probability
  • 342 electoral votes with a 5.28% probability
  • 347 electoral votes with a 3.85% probability
  • 356 electoral votes with a 3.60% probability
  • 357 electoral votes with a 3.37% probability
  • 336 electoral votes with a 3.22% probability
  • 335 electoral votes with a 3.14% probability
  • 352 electoral votes with a 3.09% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 100.0%, Romney wins 0.0%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 346.9 (13.6)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 191.1 (13.6)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 348 (318, 373)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 190 (165, 220)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

ThresholdSafe+ Strong+ Leans+ Weak
Safe Obama205
Strong Obama102307
Leans Obama4343350
Weak Obama000350
Weak Romney111188
Leans Romney2121187
Strong Romney104166
Safe Romney62

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

00EC#Total%%ObamaRomney
48VotespollsVotesObamaRomney% wins% wins
AL91*754 37.8 62.2 0.0100.0
AK30*(0)(100)
AZ111455 44.0 56.0 3.4 96.6
AR61679 36.8 63.2 0.0100.0
CA551*460 62.0 38.0100.0 0.0
CO91*730 51.1 48.9 65.3 34.7
CT711460 58.9 41.1100.0 0.0
DE30(100)(0)
DC30(100)(0)
FL2921563 53.2 46.8 96.6 3.4
GA161*1061 46.3 53.7 4.3 95.7
HI41*517 64.8 35.2100.0 0.0
ID40*(0)(100)
IL201*546 61.5 38.5100.0 0.0
IN110*(0)(100)
IA61*720 48.9 51.1 33.7 66.3
KS61*442 45.0 55.0 7.8 92.2
KY81*528 45.5 54.5 6.6 93.4
LA81*542 41.1 58.9 0.2 99.8
ME411168 62.3 37.7100.0 0.0
MD100(100)(0)
MA111871 62.3 37.7100.0 0.0
MI161*2645 60.7 39.3100.0 0.0
MN101*461 57.5 42.5 99.0 1.0
MS61*717 40.0 60.0 0.0100.0
MO101455 45.1 54.9 6.6 93.4
MT31*445 46.1 53.9 12.0 88.0
NE221360 42.4 57.6 0.0100.0
NE111389 45.5 54.5 10.8 89.2
NE211252 49.6 50.4 45.7 54.3
NE311281 35.2 64.8 0.0100.0
NV61470 53.2 46.8 82.9 17.1
NH41495 53.9 46.1 89.2 10.8
NJ141696 57.5 42.5 99.7 0.3
NM51*455 60.4 39.6 99.9 0.1
NY291*760 63.8 36.2100.0 0.0
NC151764 51.6 48.4 72.8 27.2
ND31*480 41.3 58.8 0.4 99.6
OH1832861 55.2 44.8100.0 0.0
OK70(0)(100)
OR711431 56.2 43.8100.0 0.0
PA2032778 52.9 47.1 98.6 1.4
RI41*495 59.4 40.6 99.9 0.1
SC91*1833 51.7 48.3 84.5 15.5
SD31*442 44.3 55.7 5.0 95.0
TN111*1221 48.2 51.8 18.7 81.3
TX381*449 42.3 57.7 1.2 98.8
UT61*688 33.0 67.0 0.0100.0
VT31*728 63.7 36.3100.0 0.0
VA1332499 56.8 43.2100.0 0.0
WA121*1150 58.3 41.7100.0 0.0
WV51*811 38.0 62.0 0.0100.0
WI1032330 57.0 43.0100.0 0.0
WY30(0)(100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Comments

  1. 1

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Given that Romney fails the character test, fails the policy test, fails the popularity test, and already had zero chance of beating the incumbent in previous polls, how is it possible for him to do even worse?

  2. 3

    Attention, All Planets of the Solar Federation! spews:

    It is of course possible the voting machines will say the Romney-bot won. They routed Ohio’s votes through Tennessee in 2004 for a reason, after all – but Obama is going to have such an overwhelming lead in all polls (even Rasmussen!) that no one would believe the O’Dell boys if they tried that again.

  3. 4

    rhp6033 spews:

    Nice to see all that blue – Wisconsin, S. Carolina, N. Carolina.

    I’m wondering how the Boeing workers being shifted to S. Carolina factory might change the dynamics of the local political structure there. Boeing thought they could hire everything locally, but over the past two years they have been recruiting heavily among their existing workers in the Puget Sound region to re-locate to Charleston, at least temporarily. What’s badly needed there are the higher-level skills, such as Q.C., electoral and avionics techs, etc.

  4. 5

    rhp6033 spews:

    Polls published today showing Romney winning the three primaries scheduled for Tuesday (Wisconsin, Maryland, and D.C.) by comfortable margins. But Gingrich trails in fourth place, behind even Ron Paul, with about 8% of the vote.

    Romney ahead in Tuesday contests

    I guess it’s no big suprise, since Newt considered the south-east to be his base, and these are definately NOT considered the south-eastern states. And Newt isn’t even campaigning now, he’s just phoning it in now that he doesn’t have any big-money contributors left. But seriously, how long does Gingrich have to stay in the race before he gets the message that even Republicans don’t want him, and even the Tea Party trusts Romney more than they do Gingrich?

    My guess is that for Gingrich, it’s all about his ego. He wants either Santorum or Romney to come on bended knee, kissing his ring as he genuflects and humbly askes Newt for his endorsement, at which time Newt will deign to issue his list of demands in return (Vice Presidency? Secty of State? Ambassador to France?)

    But it seems that neither Santorum nor Romney is willing to do that, preferring to defeat Gingrich in the trenches so they can ignore him later. Romney can probably get away with this, but Santorum will need Gengrich’s delegates at the convention in order to keep Romney from bulldozing his way through to the nomination.

  5. 6

    Chris spews:

    I don’t get this Obama 99.99% chance thing. No one has that good of a chance in any election except in dictatorships. Obama is probably going to win no doubt about it. But better than 99,999 in 100,000 Im very certain that is an impossible number. If it is the truth, why is anyone, including Obama himself campaigning. Instead, he could be watching the NBA Playoffs, a full season of White Sox baseball coming up, and as soon as that winds down the NFL season will start up. Given a 99.99% chance of winning, wouldnt that be a better use of time than campaigning? Obama doesnt think so. So my point is, whats up with this 99.99% chance thing in all these simulations?