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Archives for October 2012

The Rape Thing

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 10/31/12, 7:15 pm

I thought I might be all out of what the fucks this campaign season. Especially after the shitty hurricane coverage. But there’s still at least one more. What the fuck, John Koster?

Koster: “When a mother’s life in in danger. I’m not going to make that decision. You know, I know they go out and… incest is so rare, I mean, it’s so rare. But the rape thing…you know, I know a woman who was raped and kept her child, gave it up for adoption, she doesn’t regret it. In fact, she’s a big pro-life proponent. But on the rape thing, it’s like, how does putting more violence onto a woman’s body and taking the life of an innocent child that’s a consequence of this crime, how does that make it better? You know what I mean?”

First off, if that story is true it doesn’t really change the facts for the women who get an abortion after being raped. If a woman decides to have a kid after being raped, I want to live in a society that respects that. But society should have just as much respect for a woman who doesn’t want to bring her rapist’s child into the world.

Now I think all women should be able to make that decision for themselves under any circumstances. But it’s tough to imagine that a person wouldn’t feel a little compassion sneak in when we’re talking about rape victims.

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Open Thread 10/31

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 10/31/12, 8:05 am

– Aside from the anti-bus one, I like these reasons to bike to work.

– I’m not an evangelical, and we live in a secular society is a better response on policy than to tell them what they should believe about religion. But the relatively recent change to opposition to abortion in the evangelical community is pretty fascinating.

– Good for Italy.

– Bogus photos, however, are a strange new form of popular expression attached to unfolding crises, hovering somewhere on the boundary between art and commentary.

– Obviously, it’s limited in geography and scope, but I think the MTA Flickr had the best pictures.

– When I was in England and people would ask me why people call it football, I would tell them it was because the ball was shaped like a foot. I like this answer better.

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This Asshole Again?

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 10/30/12, 9:01 pm

I don’t care how desperate you are for a local angle on the biggest story right now. If the story you’ve decided to write is What does Michael Brown think of Sandy (h/t) you’re writing the wrong goddamn story. I mean maybe if you preface it with, and do the opposite of what this fucker says.

Seriously, after his monumental fuckup in the wake of Katrina why the hell would you ask his opinion if you had a hangnail? Honestly.

Also, even if you didn’t know it was this fucker, that’s really terrible advice. Obama is being too prepared for a disaster and Something something Benghazi.

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Why Does Mark Halperin Still Have a Job?

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 10/30/12, 5:12 pm

Seriously. It’s cheap enough to be like “storm good for candidate arrrgh” or “Storm Bad for candidate!” But to be both for no real reason other than to just have something to say? Boo.

And yes, I realize that if you’re a pundit, you have to keep doing punditry. But maybe take a breath or some shit. I don’t know.

Just to be clear, I’m not inherently opposed to tying Sandy to the presidential election. It’s a week away, and Sandy may have an impact. But when there is a disaster, maybe step up your game.

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Goldy — Tuesday, 10/30/12, 3:57 pm

Please join us tonight for a special edition of the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally, where we’ll all raise a pint in honor of Darryl’s aging pancreas.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Our gatherings are informal. If you show up and don’t immediately recognize the pack of liberals, ask a bartender or server.

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Poll Analysis: The race is stable

by Darryl — Monday, 10/29/12, 11:09 pm


Obama Romney
95.9% probability of winning 4.1% probability of winning
Mean of 303 electoral votes Mean of 235 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney with a 93.4% to a 6.6% probability of winning an election now. Obama led 294 to 244 electoral votes

Today’s polls through about noon were…

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA LA Times 15-Oct 21-Oct 1440 2.9 54 40 O+14
CO ARG 25-Oct 28-Oct 600 4.0 47 48 R+1
FL PPP 26-Oct 28-Oct 687 3.7 49 48 O+1
FL CNN/OR 25-Oct 28-Oct 770 3.5 48 48 tie
MD Baltimore Sun 20-Oct 23-Oct 801 3.5 55 36 O+19
MA UNH 24-Oct 28-Oct 583 4.1 52 38 O+14
MN Mason-Dixon 23-Oct 25-Oct 800 3.5 47 44 O+3
MO Mason-Dixon 23-Oct 25-Oct 625 4.0 41 54 R+13
NE Wiese Res 23-Oct 25-Oct 679 3.8 40 54 R+14
NH PPP 26-Oct 28-Oct 874 3.3 49 47 O+2
NJ Philadelphia Inquirer 23-Oct 25-Oct 601 4.0 51 41 O+10
NM Research & Polling 23-Oct 25-Oct 662 4.0 50 41 O+9
NY SurveyUSA 23-Oct 25-Oct 554 4.1 61.7 32.7 O+28.9
NC Elon 21-Oct 26-Oct 1238 2.8 45.4 45.3 O+0.1
NC Rasmussen 25-Oct 25-Oct 500 4.5 46 52 R+6
OH Rasmussen 28-Oct 28-Oct 750 4.0 48 50 R+2
OH Gravis Marketing 27-Oct 27-Oct 730 3.6 50 49 O+1
OH PPP 26-Oct 28-Oct 718 3.7 51 47 O+4
OH Cincinnati Enquirer 18-Oct 23-Oct 1015 3.1 49 49 tie
PA Philadelphia Inquirer 23-Oct 25-Oct 600 4.0 49 43 O+6
TN Middle Tennessee State U 16-Oct 21-Oct 609 4.0 59 34 O+25
VA Gravis Marketing 26-Oct 26-Oct 625 3.9 48 48 tie
VA Washington Post 22-Oct 26-Oct 1228 3.5 51 47 O+4

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 95,877 times and Romney wins 4,123 times (including the 363 ties). Obama received (on average) 303 to Romney’s 235 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 95.9% probability of winning and Romney would have a 4.1% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 29 Oct 2011 to 29 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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My first morphine experience

by Darryl — Monday, 10/29/12, 10:51 pm

Over lunch today, I was putting together a post with the latest election analysis. I started feeling bad. It got worse, and to make a long story short, I ended up in the ER.

The diagnosis is pancreatitis. So, I’ll be in the hospital for a couple of days, receiving morphine for the pain. I will try to finish an abbreviated poll analysis, but it will include only polls through this morning.

Morphine makes me tired.

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Open Thread 10/29 (PM, sorry)

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 10/29/12, 6:39 pm

– If you’ve got any money left over after campaign giving season, this kickstarter for Bezango, WA looks pretty good (h/t).

– Larry Stickney, as you can see, is super concerned with privacy.

– I’m still put off by Powell’s endorsement because of the war. But John McCain doesn’t really have a right to complain.

– And Barbara Guzzo, organizer of Catholics for Marriage, argued that the bishops have brought “anguish, division and sadness” to the faithful, “particularly those with a gay person in their families, the hurt that this has caused.”

– Still have to take some time to digest this XKCD on the partisan makeup of Congress

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Watch out, Asbury Park … this ain’t Bruce’s Sandy

by N in Seattle — Monday, 10/29/12, 12:08 am

Who’da thunk it?

The home of such dreck as Pawn Stars, Ice Road Truckers, and Only in America with Larry The Cable Guy may have actually gotten something almost right, almost historically accurate:

That’s the trailer for an episode of “Mega Disasters” on The History Channel, ordinarily as misnamed a channel as there can be. What the environs of New York City are facing in the next few days may, in fact, be even more catastrophic than that program envisions. To wit:

  • The storm depicted in the show comes up the coast, basically tracking toward the northeast. Hurricane Sandy is expected to travel in a northwesterly direction, churning into New York Harbor directly from the open ocean.
  • The hypothetical storm moves very fast, with clear skies arriving within less than a day. Sandy, we’re told, will stall over Pennsylvania for days, deluging the entire Northeast under at least 6-12 inches of rain.
  • Coming at the end of October, newly-fallen leaves will obstruct and clog storm drains, making for faster and deeper flooding than would happen in the September timeframe of the TV show’s storm.
  • As a final kicker in the real scenario, Monday, October 29 is a full moon, when tides are always at their highest. High tides at the Battery will occur at 8:31am and 8:53pm Monday, 9:06am and 9:32pm Tuesday, and 9:40am and 10:13pm Wednesday.

Here’s hoping it isn’t nearly as serious as the dire predictions are telling us. I expect to hear reports from my nephew, who lives near Lincoln Center, once the worst passes … if there’s any electric power in the area, that is.

PS. This is Bruce’s Sandy:

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Bird’s Eye View Contest

by Lee — Sunday, 10/28/12, 12:00 pm

Last week’s contest was unsolved as of Thursday night. It was in Yakima.

This week’s contest is related to something in the news from October, good luck!

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HA Mormon Study

by Goldy — Sunday, 10/28/12, 7:00 am

[HA Bible Study is on hiatus through the November election as we honor Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney by studying the scriptures of his Mormon religion.]

Doctrine and Covenants 130:22
The Father has a body of flesh and bones as tangible as man’s; the Son also; but the Holy Ghost has not a body of flesh and bones, but is a personage of Spirit. Were it not so, the Holy Ghost could not dwell in us.

Discuss.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 10/27/12, 1:28 am

Stephen: voting and hormones.

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Sensual Voting:

  • Lose it to Barack Obama:
  • Young Turks: Lena Dunham ‘First Time’ voting commercial controversy.
  • One Minute News: Your first time.

Mark Fiore: Suzilection.

Andy Cobb: Why everything sucks now (hint…Ohio).

Thom: More Republicans arrested for election fraud.

Willard! (and Friends):

  • Maddow: Ryan, a liability to Romney’s moderate myth, is kept hidden
  • Sharpton: Mitt’s ‘fake it ’til you make it’
  • Mitt pours a glass of water.
  • Sam Seder: Romney’s got Iran covered, “We’ll just arrest Ahmadinejad!”
  • Bill Press: Mitt Romney and YOUR sex life.
  • Maddow: Mitt Romney’s willingness to say anything makes integrity the issue
  • SlateTV: Romney surrogate says Powell endorsed Obama because he’s black.
  • Young Mitt learns about poor people.
  • Conan: Something missing in Eastwood’s new Romney ad.
  • Young Turks: Romney surrogate Sununu is a racist.
  • Bill Press: You cannot believe a thing Mitt says.
  • One Minute News: Obama calls Mitt a bullshitter?
  • Bill Maher with some more secretly recorded video.
  • Pap: Romney is a Foreign Policy Disaster.
  • Sam Seder on Iran’s route to the sea.

Leno: Obama on Donald Trump:

Key & Peele: Luther on Romney’s Debate Face.

Thom: Has Darrell Issa committed treason by leaking identities of Syrian informants?

Mockit TV: The Donald’s big announcement.

Ann Telnaes: McCain criticizes Powell.

God’s Little Rape Snowflakes:

  • Sam Seder: Richard Mourdock, ‘Pregnancy from rape? God intended it!’
  • Bill Press: Emily’s list responds to Mourdock
  • Tina Fey on Republican Rape (via Slog).
  • Young Turks: Republican rape panels.
  • SlateTV: GOP candidate says Rape births are “something God intended”
  • Stephen on Mourdock (via Slog).
  • Conservative Mitt endorses Richard Mourdock
  • Maddow: Mourdock reaffirms opposition to abortion rights of rape victims
  • Bill Press: Chorus of Republican voices trying to immunize the brutality of rape
  • Obama with Leno on Mourdock
  • Romney and Republicans on Women’s Health:See a pattern?
  • Lawrence O’Donnell: Richard Mourdock, ‘I Know’ I gained voters after ‘rape comments’
  • Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Rape, abortion and taxes.
  • Sam Seder: Todd “legitimate rape” Akin compares opponent to a dog
  • Young Turks: GOP’s ‘Easy,’ ‘Enjoyable,’ ‘Honest’ rape.
  • Jon: Rape and incest and abortion (via TalkingPointsMemo):
  • When will Romney stand up to extremism?
  • Sam Seder: Mourdock’s apology, “Sorry…that YOU don’t like God’s rape”.

The Ann Coulter 60 second karma smackdown.

Pap: Republican perverts trying to control your sex life. Part I.

Pap: Republican perverts trying to control your sex life. Part II.

Indecision Forever: The five funniest Congressional ads.

Michelle’s plan to get people to vote.

This Week in G.O.P. Voter Suppression:

  • Young Turks: Maricopa County Latinos get false voting information.
  • Sam Seder: G.O.P. ongoing voter suppression efforts.
  • Ed: “True the Vote” thuggery.
  • Sharpton: Investigating Tagg Romney’s ties to voting machines

GAJILLIONAIRES: Zombie Romney.

Leno: Obama comments on the debates.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Stephen make a $1 million dollar offer to Donald Trump.

Powell endorses Obama…“not sure which Romney we’d be getting”.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican—Oregon edition: .

MockTV: Bidenetics.

White House: West Wing Week.

Maddow: Union rights victory in Ohio becomes Obama asset.

Ann Telnaes: Romney and Obama clones on drones.

Thom: more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Poll Analysis: Romney gains EVs, Obama gains probability

by Darryl — Friday, 10/26/12, 7:32 pm


Obama Romney
93.4% probability of winning 6.6% probability of winning
Mean of 294 electoral votes Mean of 244 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

My analysis two days ago showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by 299 to 239 electoral votes, and Obama with a probability of winning a hypothetical election now by 93%. I pointed out that the race had stabilized and, perhaps, slightly swung in favor of Obama.

Today’s polls are consistent with the idea that the race has stabilized. We see Romney bouncing up a handful of electoral votes, but Obama’s gaining a bit more in his probability of winning an election now.

Here are the 36 new polls covering 16 states released over the past couple of days:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ Rasmussen 21-Oct 21-Oct 500 4.5 44 52 R+8
CA PPIC 14-Oct 21-Oct 993 4.0 53 41 O+12
CO Purple Poll 23-Oct 25-Oct 600 4.0 47 46 O+1
CO PPP 23-Oct 25-Oct 904 3.3 51 47 O+4
CO Keating 23-Oct 24-Oct 502 4.4 48 45 O+3
CO PNA 23-Oct 24-Oct 500 4.4 46 43 O+3
CO Marist 23-Oct 24-Oct 1128 2.9 48 48 tie
FL Rasmussen 25-Oct 25-Oct 750 4.0 48 50 R+2
FL Gravis Marketing 24-Oct 24-Oct 1182 2.8 49 50 R+1
FL PNA 23-Oct 24-Oct 600 4.0 47 45 O+2
FL Susquehanna 22-Oct 24-Oct 1001 3.1 46 51 R+5
IA Gravis Marketing 24-Oct 24-Oct 517 4.3 50 46 O+4
IA PPP 23-Oct 24-Oct 690 3.7 49 47 O+2
MN St Cloud State U 17-Oct 26-Oct 601 5.0 53 45 O+8
NV CallFire 23-Oct 25-Oct 909 3.4 50 46 O+4
NV Gravis Marketing 24-Oct 24-Oct 955 3.2 50 49 O+1
NV Marist 23-Oct 24-Oct 1042 3.0 50 47 O+3
NH New England College 23-Oct 25-Oct 571 4.1 49 46 O+3
NM PPP 23-Oct 24-Oct 727 — 53 44 O+9
NY Siena 22-Oct 24-Oct 750 3.6 59 35 O+24
NY Marist 18-Oct 21-Oct 565 4.1 61 35 O+26
NC Gravis Marketing 24-Oct 24-Oct 1723 2.4 45 53 R+8
NC PPP 23-Oct 25-Oct 880 3.3 48 48 tie
NC Grove Insight 23-Oct 24-Oct 500 4.4 47 44 O+3
NC Civitas 20-Oct 21-Oct 600 4.0 47 48 R+1
OH CNN/OR 23-Oct 25-Oct 741 3.5 50 46 O+4
OH Purple Strategies 23-Oct 25-Oct 600 4.0 46 44 O+2
OH ARG 23-Oct 25-Oct 600 4.0 49 47 O+2
OK SoonerPoll 18-Oct 24-Oct 305 5.6 32.8 58.7 R+25.9
PA Rasmussen 24-Oct 24-Oct 500 4.5 51 46 O+5
VA Purple Strategies 23-Oct 25-Oct 600 4.0 47 47 tie
VA Rasmussen 24-Oct 24-Oct 750 4.0 48 50 R+2
VA FOX News 23-Oct 24-Oct 1126 3.0 45 47 R+2
WI Rasmussen 25-Oct 25-Oct 500 4.5 49 49 tie
WI Grove Insight 24-Oct 25-Oct 500 4.4 48 43 O+5
WI PPP 23-Oct 24-Oct 827 3.4 49 47 O+2

You may recall from early October, a Rocky Mountain poll in Arizona that had Obama leading by +2%. We finally get a new poll from the state. And it has Romney leading Obama by +8%. The new poll seems consistent with most earlier polls, suggesting the Rocky Mountain poll was an outlier. Even so, the Rocky Mountain poll was notable because they provided both English and Spanish language live interviews, thereby likely capturing a more representative sample of Latino voters. Why is that important? University of Washington Political Science Professor Matt Barreto explains.

Five Colorado polls were released, none of which showed Romney leading. There was one tie, and Obama had smallish margins in the rest. Of the seven current polls Romney leads in one. Even so, the very small leads for Obama only put him at a 79% probability of winning right now.

Four new Florida polls go 3:1 in favor of Romney. In the past 10 days, there have been 11 polls taken, and Obama only leads in three (plus there is one tie). Romney takes away an 86% probability of winning at this point in the race.

In Iowa, two new polls show Obama leading by small (+4%, +2%) margins. Romney only leads by +1% in one of the six current polls. Obama is at a 92% probability for taking the state now.

A new Minnesota poll has Obama leading Romney by +8%. With only two current polls Obama is at a 95% probability of winning now.

The three new Nevada polls favor Obama by small margins, and by 50% in each case. Obama leads in all seven current polls, and is at a 96% probability.

Just a week ago, New Hampshire was looking to be in Romney’s column. Today’s poll gives Obama a +3% and three of the six current polls, and Obama’s margins are greater than Romneys. Together, the evidence suggests Obama would take the state now with a probability of 77%.

New Mexico remains rock solid for Obama with this new +9%.

Four new North Carolina polls tell a mixed story. Romney has a +8% in one and a +1% in another, Obama leads one by +3% and one is tied. In aggregate, however, it is pretty clear that Romney is ahead overall. He leads in three of the six current polls, with stronger leads. Taken together, Romney is at a 94% probability of taking the state now.

Three more Ohio polls go to Obama, but by small margins. We now have 14 current polls, and Obama leads Romney eleven to one with two ties. The net result is that Obama is at a 97% probability of taking this most important of swing states.

Another Pennsylvania poll goes to Obama by a single-digit +5%. But Obama is at 51% in this poll. The four current polls all go to Obama by similar small margins.

Virginia keeps us guessing with Obama and Romney splitting a new poll at 47% each. Here is how close the state is. Each candidate leads in three polls of the seven current polls, and there is a tie. There are 4,970 total “votes” therein, of which Romney gets just 10 more than Obama. That’s close!

Two of the three new polls in Wisconsin goes to Obama, and the third is a tie. Romney does not lead any of the six current polls, so Obama earns a 92% probability of winning the state.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 93,432 times and Romney wins 6,568 times (including the 487 ties). We get a split decision. Obama received (on average) 294 (-5) to Romney’s 244 (+5) electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 93.4% (+0.4%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 6.6% (-0.4%)probability of winning.

Here is the long term trend in this race, found from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 26 Oct 2011 to 26 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ):

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Catholics for Marriage Equality

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 10/26/12, 6:39 pm

In our secular, democratic country, it probably shouldn’t matter that a large group of Catholics is taking out an ad saying they support marriage equality. You can be any religion and support any law based on the merits. But since the hierarchy is making a push, it seems fair for a large group of laity to push back.

The names of more than 1,000 Catholics will appear in a full-page newspaper ad Sunday endorsing Washington’s marriage equality law.

[…]

The advertisements of Catholics in support of same-sex marriage will appear in the Herald of Everett, The Seattle Times, and the Yakima Herald-Republic.

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Open Thread 10/26

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 10/26/12, 8:01 am

– Obama endorses R-74.

– Either these pro-life advocates are complacent monsters every bit as callously unconcerned with saving unborn babies as those they oppose. Or else, just like those they oppose, these folks do not really believe that “every embryo is morally equivalent to a fully developed child.”

– What the property tax swap would mean.

– What strangers does the McKenna campaign imagine are going to teach about alternative lifestyles? If your kid’s teachers are strangers, you’re doing something wrong.

– The My Lai is no big deal, wave fake anthrax to start a war guy endorses Obama. Yay? And the GOP reaction to it is pretty awful.

– A neocon word for chutzpah

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