by Darryl, 09/30/2012, 7:23 PM
Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 344 electoral votes Mean of 194 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Even Newer Update: There is a real North Dakota poll that has just been released. It shows Romney leading in N.D. by 51% to 39%. The poll fails my inclusion criteria because it was conducted on behalf of the North Dakota Democratic-NPL State Party. But there you have it.

Newer Update: Okay…stuff should be fixed now.

Update: OOPS! As was pointed out in the comment thread, I accidentally “invented” a new poll that turned N.D. blue! Alas, it was an Ohio poll that got entered for the wrong state (and then entered again for Ohio). I’ll do a new analysis soon.

The analysis a few days ago showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by, on average, 345 to 193 electoral votes. Since then, we’ve had a plethora of new polls released, and the result is a small gain for Obama Romney.

Here are the new polls:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ Moore 25-Sep 26-Sep 500 4.0 42 46 R+4
IA Iowa Poll 23-Sep 26-Sep 650 3.8 49 45 O+4
IA VCR 23-Sep 25-Sep 500 4.4 46 47 R+1
ME Rasmussen 25-Sep 25-Sep 500 4.5 52 40 O+12
MA Boston Globe 21-Sep 27-Sep 502 4.4 57 30 O+27
MI Gravis Marketing 21-Sep 22-Sep 804 3.3 50.0 46.2 O+3.8
MI PPP 17-Sep 19-Sep 2386 2.0 51 42 O+9
NV Marist 23-Sep 25-Sep 984 3.1 49 47 O+2
NH ARG 25-Sep 27-Sep 600 4.0 50 45 O+5
NH Marist 23-Sep 25-Sep 1012 3.1 51 44 O+7
NM PPP 17-Sep 20-Sep 3111 1.8 52 43 O+9
NC Marist 23-Sep 25-Sep 1035 3.1 48 46 O+2
OH Columbus Dispatch 19-Sep 29-Sep 1662 2.2 51 42 O+9
OH PPP 14-Sep 18-Sep 2890 1.8 50 44 O+6
PA Muhlenberg 22-Sep 26-Sep 427 5.0 49 42 O+7
PA PPP 17-Sep 18-Sep 2051 2.2 52 40 O+12
VA ARG 24-Sep 27-Sep 600 4.0 49 47 O+2
VA Suffolk 24-Sep 26-Sep 600 4.0 45.7 44.0 O+1.7
VA PPP 17-Sep 19-Sep 2770 1.9 49 43 O+6
WA Rasmussen 26-Sep 26-Sep 500 4.5 52 41 O+11

Romney continues to out poll Obama in Arizona. The three current polls, taken together, has Romney with a 95% probability of winning the state.

In Iowa, Obama leads by +4% in one poll and trails by -1% in another. Still, there are six Iowa polls taken in the past three weeks—Obama leads in four. Together they put Obama’s probability of taking the state (now) at 98%. Here is the last three months of polling:

ObamaRomney30Aug12-30Sep12Iowa

Maine has Obama leading by +12% in the new poll. There is also a newly released Critical Insights poll that is a couple weeks old and has Obama up by +16. I didn’t see the poll until after the analyses were running; it’ll be included in subsequent analyses.

Obama hangs on to a small +3.8% in one new Michigan poll. Even so, Obama pulls over 50%. Another huge, but somewhat older, Michigan poll has Obama up by +9. With Obama leading in all eight current polls, by double digits in three of them, Obama is looking unbeatable in this state.

In Nevada, Obama’s lead is just +2% in the current poll. Romney hasn’t won any of the six current polls, and Obama would be expected to win the state now with a 95% probability.

Two new New Hampshire polls have Obama up by +5% and +7%. These are Obama’s strongest showing, now giving him three of the four current polls. Romney’s chances in the state have shrunk to about 10%.

Another North Carolina poll goes Obama’s way, but by only a +2% edge. Obama now has a streak of four consecutive polls in his favor, and he takes four of the five current polls for the state. Here is what the last three months of polling look like graphically:

ObamaRomney30Aug12-30Sep12North Carolina

Two more Ohio polls go to Obama, who leads in all 12 of the polls taken over the past three weeks. In 2008, Obama won Ohio by +4.6%. If the election was held now, we’d expect Obama to win by more than a +6% margin! Here’s the recent trend:
ObamaRomney30Aug12-30Sep12Ohio

Pennsylvania shows, once again, that it isn’t a swing state. Obama’s +7% and +12% in the new polls fall in line with the rest of the ten current polls.

In Virginia, Obama has a puny +2% lead in two polls and a +6% lead in another. These polls make eleven taken in the past three weeks and Obama leads in every one of them. The analysis suggests Obama would win the hypothetical election now with certainty, even if by a smallish margin. The polling trend makes this apparent:

ObamaRomney30Aug12-30Sep12Virginia

Last, but not least, we get a new Rasmussen poll in Washington, where Obama leads Romney by a solid +11%, and takes 52% of the vote. All three current polls are double digit leads for Obama…this new poll is the smallest lead.

Now, after a Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections, Obama receives (on average) 347 (+2) 344 (-1) to Romney’s 191 (-2) 194 (+1) electoral votes. Obama won all 100,000 of the simulated elections, suggesting he would certainly win a hypothetical election held now.

We can view the long term trend of this race from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 30 Sep 2011 to 30 Sep 2012, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

Looking at the media electoral vote line (purple), we see that Obama’s position is stronger than at any time in the past year tied with his strongest position over the past year (median of 347 electoral votes).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Read the rest of this entry »

by Lee, 09/30/2012, 12:00 PM

Last week’s contest was won by milwhcky. It was the town of Sierra Blanca, TX, where Fiona Apple was arrested by a “border” patrol for possession of hash.

This week’s contest is a random location somewhere on earth, good luck!

by Goldy, 09/30/2012, 7:00 AM

[HA Bible Study is on hiatus through the November election as we honor Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney by studying the scriptures of his Mormon religion.]

Doctrine and Covenants 130:12
I prophesy, in the name of the Lord God, that the commencement of the difficulties which will cause much bloodshed previous to the coming of the Son of Man will be in South Carolina.

Discuss.

by Carl, 09/29/2012, 1:03 PM

1:02: I’m on the Rapid Ride going from Downtown to West Seattle. It smells like a new car, but stronger. I’ve smelled worse smells on the bus. I’m still downtown and so far it feels pretty much like any other ride. Maybe it’s because the Orca Card reader at my stop wasn’t up yet. Maybe it’s because the display for how many more minutes there are to go wasn’t up yet. In any event, I’m using the bus’s WiFi, so here goes.

1:05: All the doors open, although, as I say, the card reader wasn’t working yet, so it doesn’t feel like that’s an advantage.

1:06: And I’ve had my first random dude speaking to the driver through the light. Fuck you that guy.

1:11: I just typed something about how we’re on the Viaduct now, and got an error message. Lovely. Switching to ClearWire.

1:15: The views on the Viaduct and the West Seattle Bridge are quite nice. When it’s a Saturday, this is quite Rapid for real. Of course the real test will be Rush Hour on Monday and beyond.

1:19: First stop in West Seattle. I didn’t take the 54 enough to compare, but it feels better than the circuitous route it used to be.

1:24: The junction. 22 minutes feels about the same as before, maybe a bit quicker.

1:27: The person next to me says I shouldn’t use my wireless, because it’s really fast on the bus. I told him I got an error earlier, and he didn’t believe it. I don’t have to justify my WiFi device to you, random guy.

1:30: Morgan Junction.

1:31: I realized I’ve got used to the smell of the bus. Usually when it smells of homeless person piss, that’s something you can be thankful and maybe a bit worried about. With new bus small, I guess the same.

1:36: Ferry terminal. Whenever I go to Vashon via the bus, it feels like a crapshoot as to if the bus and the boat are well timed. With more frequent bus trips, I imagine it’ll feel like a crapshoot with better odds.

1:41: Westwood village. So fine route, but it doesn’t feel like that much of an improvement over the old. People who take it more often than I do will probably have a better sense of it.

by Darryl, 09/28/2012, 11:56 PM

Young Turks: on that Allen West ad.

In his own words:

The Professor and Senator Brown:

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

The Pollster-Liberal-Media-Industrial Complex Conspiracy:

MockTV: Eastwoodin’:

Jon on FAUX News’ hypocritical coverage of school lunch changes.

Latinos for Obama.

Thom: More of the Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Good ‘ol Tommy Thompson promises to ‘Do away with Medicare and Medicaid’ (via Crooks and Liars).

Willard!

Thom with even more Good, Bad and Very, Very Ugly.

Pap: Republicans crippled by fear.

Obama mask dance.

Crazy Akin:

Cenk predicts Obama will win.

Jon on The Labor Dispute (via Crooks and Liars).

Obama with some straight talk:

Mock the Vote:

White House: West Wing Week.

Young Turks: Rep. Gohmert’s bizarre Ottoman Empire conspiracy theory.

Sharpton: The G.O.P.’s new idea…Obama lies.

SlateTV: Social media and the Presidential debates.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

by Carl, 09/28/2012, 6:09 PM

I’m just got off my last free ride I’ll ever take on Metro (provided there isn’t another policy change, and I don’t start sneaking on). For me as a supporter of the elimination of the free ride area, and a Puget Pass holder, it’ll hopefully be fine. And I think it’ll be good for the county too. But it will probably take some getting used to.

So, it’ll probably be a bit longer in the mornings, at least for a while, while drivers and passengers sort it out. But 3rd Ave will still be nice. And for the rest of the county, not having to figure out if it’s pay as you enter or leave will be good.

by Darryl, 09/28/2012, 3:44 PM

Rasmussen Reports released a new poll today that shows former Rep. Jay Inslee (D) barely leading Washington Attorney General Rob McKenna (R) in the Washington state Governor’s race. The poll of 500 people (4.5 M.O.E), taken on Wednesday, has Inslee up 46% to 45%.

Inslee has now led in the last four consecutive polls. The last time McKenna led was in a SurveyUSA poll from mid-July.

In the two previous September polls, Inslee has led by 44% to 41% and 49% to 44%. The current poll might signal that the race is tightened…alternatively, the variability we see is simply sampling error.

To assess the state of the race, I performed a Monte Carlo analysis using a million simulated elections using the sample size and proportions found only in today’s Rasmussen poll. Inslee won 558,701 times and McKenna won 428,130 times. This suggests that, if the race was held today, we could expect Inslee to win with a 56.6% probability. Here is the distribution of electoral votes:

Rasmussen-Sep

If you believe the race has been stable over the past couple of weeks, we can combine the last two September polls. Now, Inslee takes 761,308 wins to McKenna’s 231,884 wins. The evidence from the past two weeks suggests that Inslee would have a 76.7% probability of coming out ahead in an election held now:

Two-Sep

In other polling news, Survey USA released a new poll in Washington’s 6th district. The poll of 628 likely voters taken last Friday through Sunday finds Derek Kilmer (D) leading Bill Driscoll (R) by 52% to 37%.

The seat is currently held by Rep. Norman Dicks (D) who is retiring at the end of this term.

by Carl, 09/28/2012, 8:02 AM

I understand that the Internet is awful. But for serious, this is disgusting. First off, as Tate notes, “The refs made the call not me.” So yeah, your anger is directed at the wrong person.

But even if the anger were focused like a laser at the right place, don’t call anyone a nigger or a cunt. Don’t wish anyone were raped.

I don’t know why this is difficult for some people. I believe in a rough and tumble debate (the other day I called some people shitheads). But racist and sexist shit is just stupid. And even random sports fans on the Internet can do better.

by Darryl, 09/27/2012, 12:18 PM
Obama Romney
100.0% probability 0.0% probability
345 electoral votes 193 electoral votes


Electoral College Map
Electoral College Map

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by an average of 341 to 197 electoral votes. The results were strong enough and certain enough that we would expect Obama to be the certain winner in an election held now.

Over the past two days, 14 new polls have been released, covering 12 states.

The net result is that, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times and Romney wins 0 times. Obama receives (on average) 345 to Romney’s 193 electoral votes. That is a gain of +4 EVs based on the new polls and the “aging out” of some older polls. We’d have to say the the evidence is quite strong that Obama would achieve victory in a hypothetical election held today.

Here are the new polls, followed by a discussion of some of the changes over the past couple of days:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ Rasmussen 25-Sep 25-Sep 500 4.5 42 52 R+10
CO Gravis Marketing 21-Sep 22-Sep 765 3.4 50.2 45.5 O+4.7
CT PPP 24-Sep 26-Sep 801 3.5 54 41 O+13
FL Insider Advantage 24-Sep 24-Sep 540 4.1 49 46 O+3
FL Quinnipiac 18-Sep 24-Sep 1162 3.0 53 44 O+9
IN Bellweather Research 19-Sep 20-Sep 800 3.5 40 52 R+12
IA PPP 24-Sep 26-Sep 754 3.6 51 44 O+7
MD Gonzales Res 17-Sep 23-Sep 813 3.5 55 36 O+19
MA Rasmussen 24-Sep 24-Sep 500 4.5 55 40 O+15
MO Chilenski Strategies 20-Sep 20-Sep 817 3.4 44.3 50.2 R+5.9
OH Quinnipiac 18-Sep 24-Sep 1162 3.0 53 43 O+10
PA Quinnipiac 18-Sep 24-Sep 1162 3.0 54 42 O+12
PA Franklin & Marshall 18-Sep 23-Sep 392 4.9 52 43 O+9
WA Gravis Marketing 21-Sep 22-Sep 625 4.6 56.4 38.6 O+17.8

There are a couple of bright spots for Romney, including a poll from Arizona that has Romney up by a +10%. Romney’s lead in the previous AZ poll was only +3%. The three current polls, taken together bump Romney’s chances of taking the state from 97.5% to 99.3% in an election now.

In Colorado, Obama has a +4.7% lead in the latest poll. Obama gets a slight bump from 95% to 96% probability of taking the state (for now) from the poll.

Two more Florida polls go to Obama. He gets a +3% in one and a +9% in the other. Taken together the 15 current polls suggest a 99% chance of Obama taking the state—up from a 93% probability without these two new polls.

Indiana has Romney up by a respectable +12% over Obama. Indiana barely went for Obama in 2008. It seems unlikely the state will repeat that in 2012.

Another Iowa poll goes Obama’s way, this time by +7%. Romney has only led in one of the four current polls taken over the past three weeks. Taken together, Obama gets a slight bump from 95% to 98% of taking the state now.

The other bright spot for Romney is Missouri, where Romney leads in a new poll by +5.9%. Together, the two current polls bump Romney’s chances from 68% to 90% of taking the state now.

Another Ohio poll goes to Obama, this one by double digits. This gives us 12 polls in Ohio over the past three weeks and every one of them goes to Obama. As a result, Obama won all 100,000 simulated elections in that state.

Two new Pennsylvania polls both go to Obama. One by +12% and the other by +9%. The eight current polls all go to Obama. The give Obama, in aggregate, a +9% lead over Romney, and suggest Obama would take the state with certainty in an election right now.

A new poll for Washington state has Obama leading Romney by +17.8%. The five current polls all give Obama double digit leads in the state.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Read the rest of this entry »

by Carl, 09/27/2012, 8:03 AM

- The map for the 7 proposed Seattle districts does a better job of keeping the downtown area in one district than the state or county districts.

- I have not finished reading the Living Under Drones report, but so far, it’s pretty awful.

- There will still be blown calls, but the NFL refs will be back, and will be significantly better than the old ones.

- The 36th is an interesting race.

- People in swing states don’t like bad policy either.

- Those forest fires fucked up the air.

by Carl, 09/26/2012, 6:44 PM

In 1995, there was a proposal to elect the Seattle City Council by districts. Mostly, it was on the ballot because Tom Stewart was a jackass (pdf). That said, the way we elect the city council is made of stupid. There’s no reason to have 9 at large districts. It means downtown and poorer areas are underrepresented on the council, and it means that communities of color and other groups that are geographically grouped have a tougher time electing people.

So, while I would prefer all district elections, I can see myself supporting a proposal to have some districts and some at large representatives if it gets on the ballot. Still, the people running it don’t seem like good people. The only one I know of is John Fox who has been on the wrong side of a lot of issues. Most recently he helped kill decent transit in this town because he didn’t like the tax structure, but whoops, forgot to ask the legislature to give us a more equitable way to pay for it. The rest of them seem worse.

The group, which will announce its plans in a press conference tomorrow morning, is headed up by three business representatives and one low-income housing activists [sic]. The business reps are Faye Garneau, director of the Aurora Avenue Merchants Association, who fought for years against bus lanes on Aurora; Fremont Dock owner Suzie Burke, who fought, most recently, against a bike lane on Stone Way in Fremont; Eugene Wasserman, one of the plaintiffs suing to stop the city from completing the “Missing Link” of the Burke-Gilman Trail; and Seattle Displacement Coalition founder John Fox, who has steadfastly fought against pro-density legislation, from Yesler Terrace to Roosevelt to, well, the entire city.

So, maybe I’ll support districts. But if these people think it’ll give them what they want, maybe I’ll have to reconsider.

by Darryl, 09/26/2012, 3:01 PM

That’s the phrase Josh Marshall used to describe this clip:

I couldn’t help noticing a loss of dignity over at FOX News as well….

by Darryl, 09/25/2012, 3:30 PM

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

Obama’s “post convention bump” seems to be growing. My latest Monte Carlo Analysis of the state head-to-head polls has Obama leading Romney by an average of 341 to 197 electoral votes. On the other hand, there are cries from the right of ”liberal bias” in the polls. They suggest some kind of vast left-wing conspiracy among nearly all pollsters to include too many Democrats! Sure…and it’s probably orchestrated by the folks who brought us global warming….

Join us as we conspire every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.



Can’t make it to Seattle’s DL tonight? There are lots of other Washington state chapters of DL meeting over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter also meets tonight. On Wednesday, the Burien chapter meets. On Thursday the Woodinville chapter meets. And on Monday, the Yakima, South Bellevue and Olympia chapters meet.

With 232 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.

by Darryl, 09/25/2012, 1:21 PM
Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 341 electoral votes Mean of 197 electoral votes

Beginning this analysis, I’ve narrowed the “current polling window.” The old window included all polls taken within the past month. That criterion resulted in some states with many “current” polls, including some pre-conventions polls.

The new criterion is three weeks, so that almost all the polling occurs after the conventions. You can expect the window to shrink to two weeks sometime in October.

There are two effects from shrinking the window. First, the number of individuals polled goes down for some states. With fewer respondents, we have less evidence and, therefore, uncertainty increases (all else being equal).

The other effect is that there is less smoothing of the results. That is, the results become more indicative of trends.

Taken together, we might expect that Governor Mitt Romney’s chances improve through the increase in uncertainty. We can also expect Romney’s chances to decrease as a result of a recent poll surge for Obama. As it happens, the latter has a much stronger effect. The net effect is that Romney takes a beating….

The previous analysis had Obama leading Romney by 331 to 207 electoral votes, and the analysis suggested that Obama would almost certainly win an election held now.

Nineteen new polls covering 13 states have appeared in the past two days. Additionally, I’ve found four older polls (one each in AL, CO, OH, and FL) by comparing my database against Samuel Minter’s database.

Here are the new polls:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AR Talk Business-Hendrix College 17-Sep 17-Sep 2228 2.0 34.5 55.5 R+21.0
CO PPP 20-Sep 23-Sep 940 3.2 51 45 O+6
FL PPP 20-Sep 23-Sep 861 3.3 50 46 O+4
FL WA Post 19-Sep 23-Sep 769 4.5 51 47 O+4
FL ARG 20-Sep 22-Sep 600 4.0 50 45 O+5
IA ARG 20-Sep 23-Sep 600 4.0 51 44 O+7
MI Rasmussen 20-Sep 20-Sep 500 4.5 54 42 O+12
MN Mason-Dixon 17-Sep 19-Sep 800 3.5 48 40 O+8
MT Mason-Dixon 17-Sep 19-Sep 625 4.0 42 51 R+9
NV ARG 20-Sep 23-Sep 600 4.0 51 44 O+7
NV NV Retailers 19-Sep 20-Sep 500 4.4 46 46 tie
NV PPP 18-Sep 20-Sep 501 4.4 52 43 O+9
NJ Monmouth 19-Sep 23-Sep 613 4.0 52 37 O+15
NC Civitas 18-Sep 19-Sep 600 4.0 49 45 O+4
OH Gravis Marketing 21-Sep 22-Sep 594 4.3 45.3 44.3 O+1.0
OH WA Post 19-Sep 23-Sep 759 4.5 52 44 O+8
PA Susquehanna 18-Sep 20-Sep 800 3.5 47 45 O+2
PA Mercyhurst U 12-Sep 20-Sep 522 4.3 48 40 O+8
WI WeAskAmerica 20-Sep 23-Sep 1238 2.8 52.5 41.0 O+11.5

With this new poll, seven of eight current Colorado polls go to Obama suggesting he would win an election now with about a 95% probability. One can sense from the last three months of polling that Obama is gaining slowly in the state:

ObamaRomney25Aug12-25Sep12Colorado

Florida has Obama up by +4% in two new polls and +5 in another. Obama has now led in five consecutive polls in the state. That trend we can almost discern in Colorado is even more apparent in Florida:
ObamaRomney25Aug12-25Sep12Florida

Romney took the previous Iowa poll, but this new one goes +7% for Obama. The three current polls, take together, suggest Obama has a 95% chance of taking the state right now.

Another solid Michigan poll for Obama leaves him with a certain win in the state (at least, for now).

Three new Nevada polls have Obama up by +7%, +9%, and +0% (i.e. tied). It looks like Obama is regaining the lead he held there six months ago:
ObamaRomney25Aug12-25Sep12Nevada

The Civitas Institute is a right wing think tank in North Carolina, but they release all their polls. This one has Obama leading by +4%. Obama leads in four of the six current polls and the last three in a row. Still, the weight of evidence goes very slightly to Romney. The trend seems to be in Obama’s favor:

ObamaRomney25Aug12-25Sep12North Carolina

Two new Ohio polls favor Obama, one by a whisper, the other by +8%. Looking at the three month polling trend in the state, the past few weeks have not been kind to Romney:
ObamaRomney25Aug12-25Sep12Ohio

Obama gets his best and his worst poll in recent months in today’s Pennsylvania collection. Still, it is hard to argue that Obama’s lead isn’t solid:

ObamaRomney25Aug12-25Sep12Pennsylvania

Finally, a double-digit lead for Obama in Wisconsin caps off a very favorable collection of recent polls in the state for the President. Whatever momentum Romney had in the state in August seems to have almost entirely vanished:
ObamaRomney25Aug12-25Sep12Wisconsin

Now after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times and Romney wins 0 times. Obama receives (on average) 341 (+10) to Romney’s 197 (-10) electoral votes. In a hypothetical election held now, Obama would have a 100.0% probability of winning.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Read the rest of this entry »

by Carl, 09/25/2012, 8:03 AM
by Carl, 09/24/2012, 6:52 PM

At least until it’s up and running on Saturday. Or until I think of something else. But I was looking at the map of C route on West Seattle Blog that I linked to in the Open Thread, and I had a few more thoughts.

First off, every time before now that I saw the maps, I’d completely missed that they were connected. Up at the top it says, “Continues as Rapid Ride D.” For some reason I had thought they were separate routes. So, it’ll be sort of like now from West Seattle downtown, the 54 changing into the 5, sometimes. You won’t have to get off. This alleviates some of my worries about the D route deadending in North Downtown. So if you’re in Pioneer Square and you’re heading to Ballard you catch the C North and it quickly turns into the D. Hopefully always? Like it’s one route.

I don’t know if that was a branding issue, or what, but it seems like it would make more sense to call it one line now that there’s no free ride area to confuse when you board. Maybe it’s a lesson from the failure of the Monorail where everybody criticized it for going from West Seattle to Ballard, when obviously the point was it went from Ballard or West Seattle to Downtown and then continuing to the other.

The other thing I noticed is that it goes on the Viaduct. This makes sense for now: it’s going from West Seattle to Downtown. But the Viaduct won’t be around much longer, and the tunnel won’t have an exit on Seneca or an entrance on Columbia. Presumably it’ll either go through SoDo or I-5, but either way will make it less rapid. If it’s through SoDo, hopefully, they’ll have figured out signal prioritization.

by Carl, 09/24/2012, 8:18 AM

- Rapid Ride C and pay as you enter both ways are coming to West Seattle.

- A plurality of Shoreline residents would support a plastic bag ban. So it’s not just the dirty hippies in Seattle.

- We are free to be assholes. But we can never be free to do so without thereby making ourselves assholes.

- Bullshit.

- Now, some health officials and communications experts are saying the symbol for climate impacts should be a child, not a polar bear.

- Only one of these things is a gaff.

- Obama needs to work on being a better antichrist.

by Darryl, 09/23/2012, 4:33 PM
Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 331 electoral votes Mean of 207 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

I’ve finally succumbed to the pressure of “doing something about South Carolina.” The last straw was Goldy harassing me over the phone for the umpteenth time this past week. So, I caved and changed the inclusion criteria for states lacking “current polls.” Note that I did not simply drop the vexing S.C. poll, but the new inclusion criteria means that when there are no current polls, multiple old polls will be pooled.

Here is what I have been doing: If a state does not have a “current poll”, I use the single most recent poll available. Right now, the definition of “current poll” is any poll taken over the past month (this “window” will shrink as the election approaches and the pace of polling increases).

That simple rule worked pretty well in 2008. But a single, large poll in South Carolina has plagued these analyses since late last year. The poll is perfectly valid, and might even be correct in giving Obama an 85% probability of winning the state. But it is quite old, and there are other slightly older polls in the state that contradict it. What’s an analyst to do?

I modified a suggestion from Richard Pope and used an inclusion window for older polls, the length of which depends on how old the most recent poll is. Here his the new rule set:

  1. Use only polls taken in the “current polling window” (one month, right now)
  2. If the most recent poll is outside the current polling window and less than 3 months old, use that poll and any others taken over the prior two weeks
  3. if the most recent poll is 3-6 months old, use that polls and any others from the prior month
  4. if the most recent poll is 6-9 months old, use that poll and any other from the prior three months
  5. if the most recent poll is 9-12 months old, use that poll and any other from the prior six months
  6. if the most recent poll is more than a year old, use that poll and any other from the prior year

There are several disadvantages of this new rule set: First, it is complicated. As you know, I strive to minimize arbitrary assumptions in the methods, but now I’ve gone and added a complex, arbitrary rule. Yuck. Another disadvantage is that the new rules will tend to overestimate the winning certainty for states with multiple old polls included in an analysis. On the other hand, a state that hasn’t been polled in a long time probably hasn’t been polled much, so most of the time the single most recent poll will still be used. South Carolina is an exception. There were a bunch of polls taken late last year. I believe this happened because there was “piggyback” polling of the general election by pollsters covering the contentious G.O.P. primary in that state.

Okay…so let’s get to it. Just three days ago the analysis had President Barack Obama leading Gov. Mitt Romney by 336 to 202 electoral votes. The results suggested that, if an election was held now, Obama would almost certainly win.

In the three days since my previous analysis, there have been some 19 new polls (plus, I am including an old poll, previously overlooked). Here are the polls:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ Purple Poll 15-Sep 19-Sep 600 4.0 45 48 R+3
CA PPIC 09-Sep 16-Sep 995 4.4 53 39 O+14
CO Purple Poll 15-Sep 19-Sep 600 4.0 48 45 O+3
CO Marist 16-Sep 18-Sep 971 3.1 50 45 O+5
FL Mason-Dixon 17-Sep 19-Sep 800 3.5 48 47 O+1
FL Purple Poll 15-Sep 19-Sep 600 4.0 47 48 R+1
GA InsiderAdvangage 18-Sep 18-Sep 483 4.5 35 56 R+21
IA Marist 16-Sep 18-Sep 898 3.3 50 42 O+8
NE Wiese Res 17-Sep 20-Sep 800 3.5 40 51 R+11
NE2 Wiese Res 17-Sep 20-Sep 400 4.9 44 44 tie
NC Purple Poll 15-Sep 19-Sep 600 4.0 48 46 O+2
NC High Point 08-Sep 18-Sep 448 4.7 48 44 O+4
OH Purple Poll 15-Sep 19-Sep 600 4.0 48 44 O+4
OH FOX News 16-Sep 18-Sep 1009 3.0 49 42 O+7
OH Ohio Poll 13-Sep 18-Sep 861 3.3 51 45 O+6
OH Gravis Marketing 07-Sep 08-Sep 1548 2.7 47.3 43.2 O+4.1
PA Rasmussen 19-Sep 19-Sep 500 4.5 51 39 O+12
SD Neilson Brothers 29-Aug 06-Sep 512 4.3 38.7 53.9 R+15.2
VA Purple Poll 15-Sep 19-Sep 600 4.0 46 43 O+3
WI Marist 16-Sep 18-Sep 968 3.2 50 45 O+5

The race seems to tighten in Arizona where Romney just squeaks by with a +3%. Also, this is the first time since early June that Romney has been under 50%.

On the other hand, California tightens as well. Obama gets +14% where he used to pull in the low +20%.

Another pair of Colorado polls go to Obama, who leads in seven of the eight current polls, and seems to have a 91% chance of taking the state (in an election held now).

Florida gives each candidate a poll, by +1%. From twelve polls pooled over the past month, the ~11,000 responses go to Obama 50.8% of the time and to Romney 49.2% of the time. That translates into an 88% probability that Obama would win the state now.

The good news for Romney is that Georgia shows the strongest result for him this year.

Iowa has a strong +8% result for Obama. This poll was taken slightly before the Rasmussen poll I included last analysis that had Romney up by +3%. Even so, with Obama taking two of the three current polls, Obama would seem to have an 89% chance of taking the state right now.

We finally have some polling in Nebraska, where Romney bests Obama by +11%. That the good news for Romney. Recall that Nebraska assigns one elector to the winner of each CD, and the overall state winner gets the other two electors. The bad news for Romney is that Nebraska’s second congressional district polls at a 44% tie. Obama won NE-2 in 2008 and may do it again! (The polling report mentions that Romney has a solid lead in the other two CD’s, but the numbers are not given; instead, an older poll is used for those two CDs. Romney leads in both.)

Two new North Carolina polls go to Obama by small margins. Even so, Romney has led in five of nine current polls (and there was a tie). Overall, the pooled polls favor Romney with an 83% probability of winning an election held now.

With the three new Ohio polls, Obama has a streak of eight consecutive poll leads in the state. Obama won 99% of the simulated elections in the state.

A double-digit lead for Obama in the newest Pennsylvania poll. Obama has won all four of the state’s current polls.

South Dakota gives Romney his first double digit SC lead of the year.

Like Ohio, the new Virginia poll gives Obama a streak of eight consecutive poll leads in the state. But Obama only won 95% of the simulated elections in Virginia.

The new Wisconsin poll means Obama leads in all five current polls, and gives Obama a very high probability of taking the state (in a hypothetical election held now).

After a Monte Carlo analysis with 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times and Romney wins 0 times. Obama receives (on average) 331 to Romney’s 207 electoral votes. Obama has a 100.0% probability of winning and Romney has a 0.0% probability of winning. And that is with South Carolina going to Romney 95% of the time.

Using the new “old poll inclusion criteria,” here is the picture of the race over time:
ObamaRomney23Sep11-23Sep12ex

Hmmm…it looks pretty much like the old one that used the simple “single most recent” rule.

Read the rest of this entry »

by Lee, 09/23/2012, 12:00 PM

Last week’s contest was won by milwhcky. It was in Port Orchard.

This week’s is related to something in the news from September, good luck!

by Goldy, 09/23/2012, 7:00 AM

[HA Bible Study is on hiatus through the November election as we honor Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney by studying the scriptures of his Mormon religion.]

Book of Mormon, Mosiah 11:6
Yea, and thus they were supported in their laziness, and in their idolatry, and in their whoredoms, by the taxes which king Noah had put upon his people; thus did the people labor exceedingly to support iniquity.

Discuss.