HorsesAss.Org

Yeah, I called the Washington US Senate race for Patty Murray on election night, just minutes after the first round of King County results was released, and I called WA-02 for incumbent Rep. Rick Larsen last Thursday, when he was still leading by only 1,451 votes. But in my boldest prediction yet, I’m sticking my neck out and projecting that the rest of the media will call WA-02 for Larsen sometime between 4:30 and 7:00 PM today.

The problem for Tea Party challenger John Koster is that even if the remaining ballots shift dramatically in his direction (and they won’t), there just aren’t enough ballots remaining for him to overcome Larsen’s 3,841 vote lead. Yeah, there’re still 30,000 ballots in Snohomish County, where Koster still leads by a 1.74% margin, but only about 47% of those are in WA-02. Koster would now have to garner over 54.5% of the estimated 42,000 or so ballots remaining district wide to surpass Larsen… a target that will only jump impossibly higher after today’s returns.

So yeah, the media will finally call this one for Larsen by the end of the day, after absurdly stretching the fiction of an undecided race for an extra three or four days.

Last week’s contest was won by Scott, who recognized that it was the intersection of York Rd S and 36th Ave S in South Seattle.

This week’s contest is another random location someone in the world. Good luck!

I’m not exactly calling the State Supreme Court race between incumbent Justice Richard Sanders and challenger Charlie Wiggins, because the “Ballots on Hand” data on the Secretary of State’s website is always just a rough estimate, but if you dump the county-by-county returns into a spreadsheet and project current margins against the estimated remaining ballots, of which nearly 53% are in King County, Wiggins comes out on top by about 5,600 votes.

I guess getting his crazy on during the final days of the campaign didn’t work out too well for Sanders.

Keep in mind that the “Ballots on Hand” numbers are notorious for fluctuating wildly, though they tend to become more reliable the further along we are in the counting process, so it’s certainly possible the data is incomplete, or even wrong. That said, my calculations merely average margins across the accumulated vote, and thus don’t account for the obvious trend toward Wiggins amongst late voters, so it’s very likely that his ultimate margin of victory will be even larger.

(If anybody has archived the county-by-county totals from election night, I’d be happy to work that into my spreadsheet. Overall we’ve seen about a 2 point swing in Wiggins favor statewide in the post-Tuesday count, which averaged across the counties would suggest a final 9,300 vote margin.)

Either way, and despite the fact he currently trails Sanders by over 13,000 votes, the smart money has gotta be on Wiggins.

1 Corinthians 14:34-35
Women should remain silent in the churches. They are not allowed to speak, but must be in submission, as the law says. If they want to inquire about something, they should ask their own husbands at home; for it is disgraceful for a woman to speak in the church.

Discuss.

Watching the Arizona-Stanford game right now, I want to post something that’s been on my mind related to college football. I don’t think I’ve ever met a college football fan who doesn’t despise the BCS system, but the money invested in the existing bowl system is what keeps us from ever getting the playoff system that everyone wants.

If college football fans want to usher in a playoff system, there’s one easy way to do it:

Stop going to the bowl games.

You could force the NCAA to adopt a playoff system by the end of January if the bowls were all played in front of tens of thousands of empty seats. I don’t understand why this isn’t discussed as a way to force their hand. You can yell and scream all you want about how much the BCS sucks, but they’re not going to listen until you figure out how to hit them in their wallets.

Levi Pulkkinen reports:

Thirteen teens associated with Redmond High School are facing drug charges after a long-running undercover operation involving a police officer posing as a student.

In charging documents filed earlier this week in King County Juvenile Court, investigators describe the months-long operation that saw a Redmond police detective enroll in the high school and buy drugs from students there.

Enrolled as a senior in August 2009, the detective described herself as a transfer student who’d recently moved to Redmond from California. She attended classes, ate lunch at the school and lived as a high school student until 11 students were arrested in February.

According to charging documents, the undercover officer was able to buy a wide variety of illicit drugs at the suburban high school, including ecstasy, heroin and cocaine.

Investigations like these are upsetting to me on a number of levels. For starters, if there are 13 different students dealing drugs at your suburban high school, arresting those students will – at best – provide a short window of time where those drugs are hard to obtain. In other words, if there’s enough commerce going on that it requires 13 different drug dealers to satisfy the demand, other sellers will quickly fill that void.

That said, I don’t really believe that there were 13 separate drug dealers supplying the students of Redmond High with drugs. What often happens in investigations like this one is the following scenario:

The female undercover officer enrolls in the school with the intent to seek out the “dealers”. With a little effort, she’s able to locate students who are occasional drug users. She then approaches a 16-year-old boy who perhaps some other students have told her smokes pot. This kid isn’t a drug dealer, but he knows the people who are. The undercover officer approaches him about acquiring drugs, asking “hey, do you know where I can buy drugs?” The 16-year-old, who thinks this new girl from California is kind of cute and now thinks she also likes to smoke pot, wants to impress her and decides to be the middleman himself. He visits someone he knows he can get some drugs from, buys them and brings it to her. He’s now a potential felon.

Without knowing any of the details of the cases against these 13 young people, no one other than the accused themselves has any idea how many would fit the profile I gave, but I have trouble believing that this one undercover cop managed to bring down over a dozen truly dangerous drug dealers in a single high school. Yes, drugs are widespread in our high schools, whether they’re in the city or out in the wealthy suburbs. But for the student in the scenario I gave, while his parents should rightfully be upset that he’s able to find drugs in high school, getting arrested will be far more detrimental to his prospects in life than the drugs were.

As a parent myself, this weighs heavily on my mind. I’m not happy about the fact that it’s so easy to get drugs in our schools (and it’s the main reason why I fight for regulated sales of softer drugs like marijuana and ecstasy – so that they can be as hard to obtain as alcohol), but sending in undercover officers to entrap at-risk teenage boys is not the right solution. In fact, it generally ends up being more of a threat to young people than a benefit.

Roy Zimmerman has updated his song Vote Republican

• The original version: Vote Republican 1.0.
• Vote Republican 2.0:
• Vote Republican 3.0:

(And there are plenty more media from the past week in politics posted at Hominid Views.)

You know, I’ve got a little pride here, not to mention some basic math skills and a bit of experience tracking local election results, so I wasn’t just pulling a projection out of my ass when I confidently called WA-02 for Rick Larsen yesterday, after two days of late ballots trending in his favor.

See, in an all vote-by-mail system, there really are only two universes of ballots: those tallied on election day, and those tallied thereafter. The first universe of ballots consists of those received over a three week period stretching from a day or two after the ballots are mailed to voters, through the day of or before election day. The second universe of ballots consists almost entirely of those cast during the final two or three days of the campaign. This is a chronological, first-in-first-out process in which ballots are generally tallied in the order in which they arrive.

While it is impossible to discern a trend within the first universe of ballots, as they are all tallied together in a single election night report, one can reliably plot a trend between the two universes, and to a lesser extent between daily reports in the second… that is, if a late-ballot trend exists. And there’s little doubt that late voters strongly trended Democratic this year in Washington state.

That is why, as expected, Rep. Larsen substantially increased his lead to 3,872 votes today over Palin-endorsed challenger John Koster. And that is why there is little reason to expect the margins in subsequent tallies to vary much from that reported today.

There are about 62,000 ballots remaining to count in WA-02, of which Koster would need to win at least 53.2% to close the gap. Yet Koster has received only 49.2% of the total vote thus far, and only 45.2% of today’s tally. It’s simply not gonna happen. In fact, since the remaining ballots are contemporaneous to those reported over the past couple days, it would be surprising if Larsen didn’t continue to expand his margin.

So, the only question remaining is why HA is the only news organization calling this election?

One of the best feelings in politics comes after a close win where you put in a lot of effort. So when I look at the results in the Senate race, I’m proud to have made a difference. Those phone calls, that getting people to commit to vote, that push for more volunteers. It made people fill out their ballots. We rocked turnout in King County.

You could see the effort put into the ground for Senator Murray at the coordinated campaign. Many times, I was put in a corner on a cell phone to make calls because there were so many people they’d exhausted all the lines and all the good seats. And despite overwork and a lack of sleep, an upbeat staff always had work for me. I’ve volunteered for a lot of campaigns since before I could vote, and this was one of the ones I most looked forward to going to every time.

In a close election everything was important, and Patty’s commitment to her volunteers certainly helped. It’s also nice to have a candidate you support, rather than just a candidate who is better than that other one. One of my favorite calls was from someone who said he was, “so glad you aren’t another Karl Rove robocall” who on top of convincing to turn in his ballot, I convinced to come volunteer.

I’m so proud to have been a small part of that effort that helped push Patty over the top. I know a few other people who I saw there are readers of this blog, so thanks Stephen and thanks Ivan for showing up and thanks to all the other volunteers I had conversations with between calls. Thanks Carly, the volunteer coordinator for my district who was always a pleasure to talk to, and all the other staff. Thanks most especially to Patty Murray for being a candidate worth my time, and for making my effort worthwhile with a well run campaign.

It’s that time of the day again, when the various counties start releasing their latest ballot results, and there are a handful of races I’m still watching with interest.

Of course, the biggest one is the race between Supreme Court Justice/Dress-up Nazi Richard Sanders, and n0t-crazy challenger Charlie Wiggins. Sanders currently leads by over 18,000 votes, and if current trends hold true my back of the napkin calculations show him just squeaking by, but a little movement in Wiggins direction in the remaining ballots could prove decisive. So I’m still crossing my fingers.

And then there’s the WA-02 race between Democratic Rep. Rick Larsen and teahadist challenger John Koster. I’ve already called this one for Larsen, but I don’t get to claim bragging rights until everybody else calls it too. With San Juan County’s final significant ballot dump this afternoon, Larsen’s lead has grown to 2,025 votes, and that’s simply too big a difference for Koster to make up barring a dramatic shift in his direction in the remaining ballots.

Finally, there are a handful of legislative races that remain too close to call, but some of which look extremely promising… again, assuming the remaining ballots don’t trend much too differently than those counted the previous two days.

More to come.

UPDATE:
King County just reported another 74,265 ballots (with another 195,000 remaining), and the Democratic trends continue. State Sen. Rodney Tom has now opened 1,010 vote lead in LD-48 after trailing big-spending Republican Greg Bennett by 133 votes on election night, and Rep. Roger Goodman has finally taken a lead in LD-45, by 375 votes, over Republican thug Kevin Haistings. And in LD-1, Luis Moscoso has extended his lead to 179 votes over teahadist  Heidi Munson, but we’ll have to wait for Snohomish to come in to see if that holds up.

UPDATE, UPDATE:
Still waiting on Snohomish, but with Larsen now up 3,322 votes, and dramatically expanding his margin in Whatcom County to nearly 58% of today’s batch, it’s hard to believe nobody else has called this race. (I just heard KUOW describe this as “too close to call,” but, well, it isn’t.)

I’m hearing rumors that long time strongman Tom McCabe is on his way out at the Building Industry Association of Washington, after a string of disastrous and costly campaigns that have splintered the industry and left the once mighty BIAW near bankruptcy, I-1082’s failure being the final straw.

Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy bigger bastard.

Asshole…

Koster’s campaign said it was monitoring the ballot counting to ensure the process was fair.

“Though John Koster remains in a position to win, we are keenly aware that there are those who will do everything they can to keep this seat out of the hands of the new House majority,” Koster’s campaign manager Larry Stickney said in a statement.

“Therefore, we have a team of observers on the ground at county courthouses throughout the 2nd Congressional District. We are working with attorneys and election experts at the state and federal levels in anticipation of a possible recount scenario,” he said.

Right. Because the only way Koster could possibly lose this election would be massive, Democratic voter fraud.

Oh, go change your diaper, crybaby.

Truth is, we don’t need to do all that much to keep this seat out of Republican hands; Koster did it himself by hiring a gay-bashing, wife-beating, incompetent campaign manager like Larry Stickney.

With the latest ballot report from Snohomish County giving him a 1,451 vote lead, it is now safe to call Washington’s 2nd Congressional District for Democratic incumbent Rep. Rick Larsen.

Rick Larsen (Democratic Party)  110,447  50.33%

John Koster (Republican Party)  108,996	 49.67%

Although trailing on election night, Larsen has now won the majority of votes in each of two consecutive ballot reports, in five of the six counties across which his district spans (Snohomish broke slightly to Koster’s advantage in today’s drop)… the same sort of late-ballot Democratic trend we’ve seen in King County and much of the rest of the state. Since the remaining uncounted ballots are all drawn from the same universe of late ballots counted over these past two days, it is only reasonable to assume that Larsen will continue to draw a majority of these votes.

So all in all, that’s not bad for WA Dems given the political climate. We hold the US Senate against an onslaught of undisclosed, corporate millions, and we give up only one, open House seat in WA-03 (a seat, by the way, that will inevitably be redistricted to be considerably more Republican for 2012.) Hard for local Republicans to crow about that given their party’s wins nationwide.

King County just released results for another 70,821 ballots, which broke 67.3% in favor of Patty Murray, compared to 66.7% on 11/3 and 61.8% on 11/2. Murray has temporarily opened up a 3% lead statewide, pending returns from other counties.

UPDATE:
Rep. Rick Larsen has expanded his lead over John Koster to 1,458 votes, though we’re still waiting for reports today from Island and Snohomish counties. Snohomish is the county I’m crossing my fingers on, as there are also a few legislative races hanging in the balance.

In legislative races, Rep. Roger Goodman has closed the gap to under 100 votes in LD 45, while Sen. Rodney Tom has opened up a 600+ vote lead in LD 48. Doesn’t look nearly as promising Sen. Randy Gordon in LD 41, who just isn’t making up the ground he needs.

UPDATE, UPDATE:
Larsen now up 1,606 votes with Island reporting. Still waiting on Snohomish; San Juan isn’t reporting today.

Also, interestingly, with today’s ballot dump, I-1100 is now failing in King County.

UPDATE, UPDATE, UPDATE:
The Seattle Times calls the US Senate Race for Patty Murray. (Finally.) As does the Stranger.

UPDATE, UPDATE, UPDATE, UPDATE:
KUOW just reported that Dino Rossi has conceded. Or maybe they said that Rossi is conceited. I wasn’t paying close attention.

Tip to the Seattle Times: wanna make national headlines, and feel really, really important? Call Washington’s US Senate race already.

You don’t have to wait for the AP or FOX News or NBC to do it. Really. The Oregonian called their governor’s race yesterday afternoon for Kitzhaber, and he was still trailing at the time, yet everybody took it seriously because they’ve got the word “Oregon” in their masthead so folks figured they must know what they’re talking about.

Yeah, I know, there’s still a helluva lot of ballots left to count, but Patty Murray’s ahead by 28,000 votes, King County turnout is through the roof and disproportionately underreported, and the late ballots—you know, the ones that haven’t been counted yet—are clearly breaking hard for the Dems. It’s kinda obvious.

And… well… you’re the Seattle Fucking Times, for chrisakes. You wanna be our state’s paper of record? Act like it.

UPDATE:
Finally.

UPDATE, UPDATE:
Oh, and just to reiterate, HA called the race for Murray about five minutes after King County posted its results on election night.