– Yesterday was the anniversary of the Seattle General Strike.
– Today is a much worse anniversary for Seattle.
– the real winners are the banks and the one percent.
– Fuck you Penn Jillette.
– Karen Handel has resigned from Komen.
by Carl Ballard — ,
– Yesterday was the anniversary of the Seattle General Strike.
– Today is a much worse anniversary for Seattle.
– the real winners are the banks and the one percent.
– Fuck you Penn Jillette.
– Karen Handel has resigned from Komen.
by Darryl — ,
Update: An analysis with more recent polls can be found here.
Since the previous analysis, we have some new state head-to-head polls to throw into the analysis. One of them changes a state from red to blue.
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| MT | Public Opinion Strategies | 09-Jan | 10-Jan | 400 | 4.9 | 36 | 53 | R+17 |
| NH | U NH | 25-Jan | 02-Feb | 495 | 4.4 | 50 | 40 | O+10 |
| NY | Siena | 29-Jan | 01-Feb | 807 | 3.4 | 63 | 31 | O+32 |
Today’s Montana poll isn’t really new…just new to me. It puts Mitt Romney up by +17% over President Barack Obama. A newly released New York poll has Obama up by +32% over Romney.
The interesting poll comes from New Hampshire. Romney has led Obama in New Hampshire in at least 11 prior polls. The new Granite State poll shows Obama leading Romney by +10%—quite a turn-around!
The result is surprising, and I’ll remain a little skeptical until it is verified by a similar finding. (Speaking of surprising results, I am expecting a new South Carolina poll to be released sometime this week….)
With the new polls weighing in, Obama has gained very slightly. From 100,000 simulated elections, Obama gains +0.2% in his probability of winning (in an election held now) for a 99.6% overall probability. He gains, on average, +3 electoral votes for a total of 335 to Romney’s 203.
| Obama | Romney |
| 99.6% probability of winning | 0.4% probability of winning |
| Mean of 335 electoral votes | Mean of 203 electoral votes |


Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
by Darryl — ,
Because they are SO FUCKING STOOOPID!!!
(h/t HuffPo)
Update: Mike Huckabee provides even more evidence for the Stooopid thesis (my emphasis):
“[I]t’s tragic that the Planned Parenthood organization now tries to present themselves primarily a health organization when they are primarily an abortion provider…. They provide some services. I will grant you that. But they are maybe on the fringes — are external portion of what they are primarily all about.”
Wingnut math: 3% == “a primary service”.
by Carl Ballard — ,
Before it gets too stale, here are some Komen links:
– Erica C. Barnett has a good overview of the situation as of Friday.
– Joan Walsh and Rebecca Traister on how the decision woke the country up to an alarming rightward drift, and gave new life to women’s health advocacy
– Pondering breast cancer, politics, and the 2 percent
– 5 Important Lessons from the Komen/Planned Parenthood Fiasco (Don’t Mess With Women’s Health)
– In case you missed it, a strange local connection. Some of the sales from the pink gun were donated to the Seattle Branch of the Susan G. Komen Foundation. (h/t to Geov)
Non-Komen items:
– You’ll never believe this, but sometimes The Seattle Times’ Ed Board say dishonest things.
by Darryl — ,
There is some football game on or something. I’m busy doing work stuff this afternoon and, frankly, when I woke up this morning, I didn’t even know who was playing. I guess I can have the game it on as background noise.
If, like me, you don’t have a teevee, Westwood one affiliates will carry the game. In the Seattle area, you can find it on 950 on the AM dial.
Anyway…snark away in the comment threads if you wish.
3:45: Somebody scored a basket.
3:50: Did Tom Cruise just score?
3:53: Damn…Redmond’s best Thai restaurant has closed.
3:56: Meanwhile, the score in Nevada (via Nevada GOP):
Current #NVCaucus results with 72.9% of precincts reporting: Gingrich: 22.3%, Paul: 18.6%, Romney: 48.1%, Santorum 10.9%, No Vote: 0.2%
72.9% complete? Have they run out of fingers?
4:18: From Twitopia:
Ana Marie Cox @anamariecox
“Illegal huddle” also something Santorum has campaigned against. #SuperBowl
4:25: Is this USA Today headline a double entendre? Brown student uncovers lost Malcolm X speech.
4:50: Poll Analysis: Patriots ahead of Giants by +1 halfway through contest.
5:19: From Twitopia:
Newt Gingrich Ideas @GingrichIdeas
Use Madonna’s outfit as a model for my Moon Emperor uniform.
5:48: Clearly, Obama has won over the hearts and minds and companies of Detroit:
5:59: Rush Limbaugh goes “green”.
6:00: Remember Shrub’s “sporting” moment? What is it about Wingnuts going nostril spelunking during sporting events? Do they think they’re digging for gold? Or do they imagine themselves wiping out poor people?
6:11: The National Football League can admit, seat, entertain for 3+ hours, and clear out 68,658 people in far less time than it takes the Nevada GOP to tally votes for some 35,000 caucus-goers?
6:51: It’s over. The Yankees win…again.
by Lee — ,
Last week’s contest was damn near impossible. The correct answer was Houston, Texas. This one was so hard, it actually took me 10 minutes to re-find it in order to post the link.
This week’s is a little easier, also a random location somewhere on earth. Good luck!
by Goldy — ,
Leviticus 3:17
So you and your descendants must never eat any fat or any blood, not even in the privacy of your own homes. This law will never change.
Discuss.
by Darryl — ,
It is a beautiful day in the Puget Sound region, so I don’t know how many people will be around here this evening. In any case, Nevada caucus results should come in sometime after 5:00 pm.
I should be able to do some commentary.
Have at it in the comment thread.
4:43: Turnout seems to be down in at least one county:
The GOP presidential caucus attracted about 6,700 voters on Saturday [in Washoe County], down from the estimated 11,000 to 14,000 that showed up for the presidential caucus in 2008….
4:46: Live updates are supposed to be available at CNN. It isn’t working for me yet.
4:51: The most recent poll in Nevada that I’ve found is this one from PPP:
5:00: It’s five and CNN is still just showing a scenery shot with no audio.
5:05: Here is the Nevada GOP web page.
5:06: With only Eureka County reporting results are (4% reporting):
5:09: Pershing County weighs in. Both counties combined. Romney stretches his lead over Gingrich, and Paul slips behind Santorum.
5:13: Now we have Churchill County. Romney strengthens his lead. Santorum spurts out ahead of Ron Paul.
5:34: Nye and Mineral Counties report. Ron Paul surges ahead of Gingrich:
5:44: Cool…I found the code to embed the results tool….
[Read more…]
by Darryl — ,
The Cook Political report has released a new batch of ratings for competitive House races.
The two Washington state races that make the list are WA-1, the seat being vacated by Rep. Jay Inslee for his gubernatorial run, and the new WA-10. (Here is a map of the new Washington state Congressional districts.)
WA-10 is rated Safe Democratic, and Cook’s Partisan Voter Index (PVI) for the district is D+5.
WA-1 is rated Lean Democratic, with a PVI of D+3.
These ratings have been stable for awhile.
Nationally Democrats have 20 seats rated as lean or toss-up, Republicans have 32. Just a month ago, Democrats had 23 and Republicans had 29.
Update: Here is a graph of the count of lean/toss-up seats since the beginning of the year:
The trend in this graph lends credibility to suggestions that Democrats may win back the House in 2012….
by Darryl — ,
Wingnuts believe in voter fraud the way they believe cutting revenues increases revenues. For them, the topic of voter fraud induces apoplectic foaming at the mouth the way a good Pentecostal revival induces intense spells of speaking in tongues.
And it’s bizarre because actual cases of voter fraud are few and far between.
Well…we now have one more example—someone who has actually been convicted of voter fraud.
I know it is totally “impossible” to believe but the voting fraudster is a Republican.
Not just any Republican, but Charlie White, former chairman of the Republican Party in Hamilton County [Indiana]. Oh…and current Secretary of State.
So, just keep in mind, when a Republican gets all alarmist about voter fraud, they are likely engaging in an exercise of psychological projection—they are expressing fears of what they would do if they had the opportunity.
An interesting question is what will happen now in Indiana. Indiana law requires the removal of public officers convicted of a felony, and the Governor gets to appoint the replacement.
The Governor—that would be Republican Governor Mitch Daniels—presumably has the power to appoint at his pleasure. But….
Separately, a Marion County judge in December ruled that White was not eligible to run for secretary of state in 2010 because he was not properly registered at his own address. White has been allowed to stay in office while he appeals that ruling.
The Marion County judge ruled that the Democrat White defeated by more than 340,000 votes in 2010, Vop Osili, should be declared the winner of the election.
This is going to get real interesting!
by Darryl — ,
Thom: AZ Gov. Brewer’s latest war…on public workers.
ONN: Panelists discussing debate clearly didn’t watch it.
Jennifer Granholm: Why GOP policies don’t address income disparities in America.
Young Turks: Republicans busting public employee unions in AZ.
Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
The SuperPAC Bites Back:
Young Turks: The rectal exam amendment to anti-abortion bill.
White House: Tuskegee Airmen visit the White House:
Pap: How will the Occupy movement evolve?
Young Turks: Obama’s National Prayer Breakfast (Romney vs the poor).
Sam Seder: Indiana state Senate find Scientology in their Creationism.
Flashback: Newt Gingrich talks about asking advice from Penn State football coach Joe Paterno about assistant coaches (via Political Wire).
Young Turks: Nutcase Senator Hatch to Obama “You’re not Jesus”.
The G.O.P. Primary Freak Show:
Sam Seder: Washington seat close to passing same-sex marriage bill.
Liberal Viewer: Michelle Malkin &Bill O’Reilly lie on Gitmo lawyers exposed.
Stephen: Tea Party demands to rewrite history.
Thom: The GOP all out assault on workers.
White House: West Wing Week.
Shuster with Michael Musto on a recent study showing that lower IQs lead to conservative views:
Sam Seder: In Alabama, God says “don’t raise Teacher pay”.
The Komen Kaper:
Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Jennifer Granholm: Will voter ID laws make voting more secure—or more selective?.
Newsy: Jobless claims drop for 5th month in a row.
Young Turks: 243K jobs created in January.
Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Carl Ballard — ,
Reading this post by Senator Paull Shin (h/t) on his vote against the marriage equality bill, this really bugged me:
My adopted family raised me as they raised their own children, with strong Christian values. To this day, I cherish those values and try to live my life in accordance with their teachings. Therefore my vote against passage of this bill was one that was deeply personal.
Senator Shin is free to find his values wherever he wants, of course. And if he lives his life according to those values, well great. But the job of state senator is to represent our secular, multi-religious, multicultural state and our secular, multi-religious, multicultural country. Those values should inspire legislation, not the values of any one faith.
The other bad thing about that argument (although he walks it back later in the piece) is that it implies that there’s only one way for Christians to vote. That Christians should unthinkingly all agree on public policy in 2012, in America, based on a book written thousands of years ago. That they should all agree with the most regressive version of Christianity not just in their personal lives but in public policy. As if the main Senate sponsor, and the governor who pushed it weren’t Catholics. As if most of the people who voted for it weren’t Christians.
If you want to make horrible arguments for a bad vote, go ahead. But don’t tell me Jesus made you do it.
by Darryl — ,
[Update: An analysis using more recent polls can be found here.]
Five new state head-to-head polls have been released since my previous analysis of a hypothetical election contest between Pres. Barack Obama and former Speaker Newt Gingrich:
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | G | diff |
| FL | Marist | 25-Jan | 27-Jan | 2795 | 1.9 | 52 | 35 | O+17 |
| FL | Mason-Dixon | 24-Jan | 26-Jan | 800 | 3.5 | 41 | 50 | G+9 |
| GA | SurveyUSA | 01-Feb | 02-Feb | 1144 | 3.0 | 43.9 | 49.7 | G+5.9 |
| MO | PPP | 27-Jan | 29-Jan | 582 | 4.1 | 49 | 42 | O+7 |
| OH | PPP | 28-Jan | 29-Jan | 820 | 3.4 | 51 | 39 | O+12 |
The two most recent Florida polls contradict each other. One gives Obama a +17% edge, and the other puts Gingrich up by +9%.
In Georgia, Gingrich has a +5.9% edge over Obama. That’s pretty anemic, considering that (1) it is Gingrich’s home turf, and (2) the same poll puts Romney up about +8 over Obama.
Obama has modest leads over Gingrich in Missouri (+7%) and a solid (+12%) lead in Ohio.
The previous analysis gave Obama a 100% probability of beating Gingrich with Obama getting a mean of 416 electoral votes. Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins ’em all. Obama’s average electoral vote count has increased to 421, and Gingrich averages just 117 electoral votes.
| Obama | Gingrich |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 421 electoral votes | Mean of 117 electoral votes |


Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
by Carl Ballard — ,
Erica C. Barnett reports on a new study on gendered disparities in public transit. And while the study didn’t apply to Puget Sound transit orgs, Barnett looks at their conclusions and at Sound Transit, finding them lacking in at least one area.
What are the implications? The Atlantic suggests that if transit agencies take women’s needs into account, they will provide easier boarding and wider aisles (for women with strollers or heavy bags) and more transit service in care-related sites, like parks, daycares, and schools. Additionally, transit agencies could include more women on their boards, the Atlantic suggests. Although Sound Transit, the regional transit agency for the Puget Sound, is led by a woman, Joni Earl, its 16-member board is dominated by men, with just four female members. (It’s all-white, too).
Also, the King County Council Transportation, Economy and Environment Committee that deals with public transportation is 2/3 men (the same makeup as the entire council) and that the chair and vice chair are both men.
by Darryl — ,
When Gov. Christine Gregoire signs same-sex marriage into law the week after next, Washington state will be catching up to that uber-liberal state known as Iowa.
So when they heard the news, the Des Moines chapter of Drinking Liberally couldn’t resist teasing us a bit at the same time they sent a congratulatory message:
Eager to share our brilliant political commentary and blunt media criticism, but too genteel to link to horsesass.org? Well, good news, ladies: we also answer to HASeattle.com, because, you know, whatever. You're welcome!I no longer use Twitter or Facebook because Nazis. But until BlueSky is bought and enshittified, you can still follow me at @goldy.horsesass.org