HorsesAss.Org

The more I think of voter ID laws and their potential to disenfranchise large swaths of people, the more I think the obvious solution is in the 14th amendment.

Representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed. But when the right to vote at any election for the choice of electors for President and Vice-President of the United States, Representatives in Congress, the Executive and Judicial officers of a State, or the members of the Legislature thereof, is denied to any of the male inhabitants of such State, being twenty-one years of age, and citizens of the United States, or in any way abridged, except for participation in rebellion, or other crime, the basis of representation therein shall be reduced in the proportion which the number of such male citizens shall bear to the whole number of male citizens twenty-one years of age in such State.

With the 19th and 26th amendments, presumably that includes women and anyone 18-21. It seems to me that courts could do it now, but it’s probably better if Congress decides on a reasonable formula. It seems to me if states are going to disenfranchise their citizens, they should lose some representation.

Keegan Hamilton takes a very comprehensive look at I-502 and the DUI conundrum.

In the archives of electoral history, the Washington state caucus will be recognized as the event that sealed the deal for Mitt Romney’s nomination. SuperTuesday is only going to confirm what Washington settled. Romney’s double digit win was devastating to Santorum, who was up with a double-digit lead in a mid-February WA primary poll.

The confirmation will come in Ohio, where Santorum had led Romney in every one of the numerous February primary polls. That changed in March. Romney leads in two of the three polls released over the weekend. The inertia suggest to me that Romney will beat Santorum by 5 or 6 percent in Ohio on Tuesday.

The abundant polling in Ohio tells the same story that we saw in only a few Washington polls: Rick Santorum received his brief turn as the Not Mitt. You know, like Gingrich before him (who actually got two rises and falls), and Herman Cain before that, and Rick Perry before that.

Perry went “oops!”, Cain was too touching for a presidential candidate, and Newt Gingrich got enough media attention to remind Republicans why they hated Speaker Gingrich so damn much. So what happened to Rick Santorum?

He opened up his big fat yapper, that’s what.

Actually…it’s more like people started paying attention to the things he’s always been saying. As a consequence, he was recognized for the puritanical freak show that he is. And for what a lousy politician he is.

On the freak side, we learned that Rick REALLY does believe that sometimes rape has a sort-of up-side: the gift of a baby. We learned that he opposes contraception because it is “a license to do things in a sexual realm that is counter to how things are supposed to be.” Yikes!

These two statements alone make Mr. Santorum a freak or, as Esquire’s Charles Pierce puts it, “a dedicated theocratic loon”, in the eyes of most Americans. Even in the eyes of some Republicans.

And that brings us to the lousy politician side. I suspect that about half of Republicans (largely the males) don’t overly object to Santorum’s freakish obsession with controlling people’s sexual and reproductive organs. What they won’t tolerate, however, is a politician who actually talks about it. Doing so is a sign of political tone-deafness, if not stupidity. The message: Santorum hasn’t mastered the political fine arts of obfuscation and lying.

I learned, first hand, about these flaws in Santorum as one of his constituents during President Clinton’s Senate impeachment trial. I wrote a letter to Santorum as well as Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) expressing my disapproval of the House’s witch hunt, and my strong opinion that Clinton should be acquitted. I received (canned) letters back from both. Santorum’s letter attempted to justify his vote for conviction in the strongest way. He dug in.

What I realized about him is that, unlike some of his other colleagues in the Senate, Santorum actually believed in impeaching a President over a blow job. It wasn’t about political power and victory. No…it was a moral imperative to remove the sodomite for his impenitent transgressions against God. I realized he was too stupid to realize that his letter angered me to the point of triggering activism.

No, nominating a person with Santorum’s political handicaps would be an act of electoral malpractice way beyond what John McCain committed when he selected an unvetted Sarah Palin to be his 2008 running mate. Republicans aren’t going to make that mistake anytime soon.

So…say goodbye to Rick Santorum. The freak show is over.

– Saving the PI Globe.

– Employer Authorization for Contraception

– A view from the deck.

– Rush Limbaugh’s non-apology.

– What’s the matter with white people? is obviously a provocative title, but well worth the read.

– Freewayblogger is looking for slogans about climate change for the next tour.(h/t)

– Yes, this is mostly an excuse for the Democrats to get you on their email list, but you can commit to the Democratic caucuses here.

– Rushed Apology

Last week’s contest was won by Poster Child. It was the house in Graham, WA where Josh Powell killed himself and his two sons.

This week’s location is a random place somewhere on earth, good luck!

Matthew 8:30-32
Not far from there a large herd of pigs was feeding. So the demons begged Jesus, “If you force us out, please send us into those pigs!” Jesus told them to go, and they went out of the men and into the pigs. All at once the pigs rushed down the steep bank into the lake and drowned.

Discuss.

The G.O.P. is supposed to release caucus results at 5:00 pm, but who knows what will really happen.

Here are some sources for results:

• AP state summary
• AP county summary
• HuffPo’s summary of AP results
• WSRP Caucus Result web page
• Twitter #WAcaucus
• Google election results
• CNN WA results

Feel free to share your caucusing story in the comment thread. I’ll provide some updates if and when anything interesting happens.

3:15:

Kate Martin ‏ @Gov_SVH
BREAKING: SKAGIT #Wacaucus results: Romney 41%, Santorum 21%, Paul 18%, Gingrich 17% (rest undecided/other) Total votes: 969

Mike Faulk ‏ @Mike_Faulk
OFFICIAL YAKIMA COUNTY RESULTS: Romney (394), Santorum (252), Paul (225) and Gingrich (136) #wacaucus

3:18:The APs Chris Grygiel tweets:

Chris Grygiel ‏ @ChrisGrygiel
@AP_Phuong – WA GOP Chairman Kirby Wilbur says caucus turnout could hit 80k. #wacaucus #wagop

Man…there must be a lot of Democrats showing up today. Mitt Romney sent a bold example. Or it might has something to do with no primary election this year….

3:26: Kirby Wilbur now says results will start coming in at 3:30. But the narrative so far on twitter feeds and political “chat rooms” is that thousands of people were turned from caucusing. The Ron Paul supporters have turned it into a conspiracy theory about keeping Paul supporters from participating.

3:33: Neither the WSRP page nor the AP page have any results yet. But there is this tweet (from Seattle Times’ Brian Rosenthal):

Brian M. Rosenthal ‏ @brianmrosenthal
With vote counted from 15 small counties, Romney is leading #wacaucus with 31.5%. Paul at 26.9%, Santorum 24.4% and Gingrinch 12.9%

…with the follow-up:

Brian M. Rosenthal ‏ @brianmrosenthal
These initial results probably represent only 10% or less of the #wacaucus vote, WA GOP Chairman Kirby Wilbur says

3:44: Here is a link to a photo of the initial official results:

4:33: With 12% reporting:

Romney 30.9%

Paul 27.1%

Santorum 24.1%

Gingrich 13.5%

Oh…man, a narrow loss by Ron Paul is going to cause an uproar among his supporters!

5:03: Now we have 29% reporting:

Romney 36%

Paul 24%

Santorum 24%

Gingrich 12%

5:13: At 31% the results are unchanged. Looking at the map of reported and unreported counties it seems pretty clear to me that Mitt Romney is going to win the beauty pageant in most of the remaining counties. (It will be interesting to see if Paul takes Watcom county—a sign that WWU students have been motivated and mobilized for Paul the way WSU (Pullman) students have been in Whitman county.)

Anyway…I’m calling the G.O.P. caucuses for the Mittster.

5:54: The quarter of King County that has been counted is heavily for Mitt (52% of the vote).

So now with 42% in state-wide we have:

Romney 37%

Paul 24%

Santorum 24%

Gingrich 11%

Just for fun, here are some Ron Paul tweets coming across the innertubes:

Gabe ‏ @ninjagaben
Looks like they stole another one #wacaucus #RonPaul2012 this is bs

Sorry, kidd-o, but a couple of crappily run caucus sites does not equal “stolen election.”

Joe Public ‏ @Just_A_Joe
RON PAUL WINS MAJORITY DELEGATES in #WAcaucus today!! WOOT WOOT. Runner up Mitt wins the straw/sign-in poll. #RonPaul vs #obama

No, Joe…Washington doesn’t work like that. We won’t know who actually wins delegates until the state convention.

6:07: Every election season Snohomish County looks more and more like King County: Romney 42.4%, Paul 24.9%, Santorum 22.4%, Gingrinch 10.2%.

6:12: Ron Paul is speaking now. Live stream here: http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/cvplive/cvpstream1

6:19: That’s interesting. Santorum takes Whatcom! Santorum 33%, Paul 27.8%, Romney 22%, Gingrich 11.9%.

6:22: Kirby Wilbur is refusing to call the election. Apparently he remembers the Luke Esser debacle of 2008.

6:29: Last Thursday I saw a pack of Lyndon LaRouche supporters set up at a table in front of Denny Hall on the UW campus. It made me wonder if some of the Ron Paul supporters, disgruntled by Mitt getting the nomination, would go on to form a Ron Paul cult akin to the LaRouchian Movement.

6:36: Mitt Romney tweets:

Mitt Romney ‏ @MittRomney
I’m heartened to have won the Washington caucuses, and I thank the voters for their support today. #Mitt2012

“Support” is, perhaps, too strong a word. Mitt won because Santorum, Gingrich and Paul are fucking freaks! Mitt wins by being the least bad of the pack.

Thom: Who are the “sovereign citizens”?

Obama on an all-of-the-above strategy to take control of our energy future.

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News crops out comedy from Catholicism satire.

Thom: The Walker recall moves ahead.

The G.O.P. Krazy Kooky Klub:

• Ann Telnaes: The G.O.P. sets itself on fire.
• Mark Fiore: Leaders.
• Pap: Santorum is living in the Dark Ages.
• Mitt’s small donor problem.
• Buzz60: Santorum surge and the Washington caucuses.
• Actual Audio: Mitt Loves Michigan.
• Stephen on Settling for Mitt.
• How out of touch is Mitt Romney?
• ONN: Heartbroken Santorum condemns gay marriage for two timing jerks.
• Romney on earmarks.
• Stephen on Jeb, Mitt and the desperate G.O.P.
• Ed and Pap: Santorum’s anti-intellectualism.
• What Romney will take away from women.
• Jon on Romney wins and CNNs nerd terrarium.
• Mitt Romney: “I’m a big believer in getting money from Washington” (via Crooks and Liars).
• Ann Telnaes: Rick Santorum and the separation of church and state.
• Sam Seder: Santorum’s mommy issue.
• Jonathan Mann“Let’s Get Rick Santorum Laid”:

Alyona: Trump says police should be more violent.

White House: West Wing Week.

Liberal Viewer: Money equals speech.

Stephen: On gas and Obama.

Andrew Breitbart dies:

• Newsy: Breitbart dies at 43.
• Buzz360: Breitbart is dead.
• Sam Seder on Breitbart’s death.
• Young Turks: The legacy left by Andrew Breitbart.
• Sam Seder on Frum on Breitbart
• Thom: Andrew Breitbart…the bell tolls for thee.
• Sam Seder: The horrible legacy of Andrew.

Kimmel on Bristol Palin’s reality show.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Freedom for some religions.

Obama speaks at a conference on conservation.

Thomas Tolbert (New Mexico’s Jane Blaugh) is Worst Person in the World.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Republicans Waging War on Women:

• Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Rush Limbaugh says 99% of women are sluts.
• Eric Schwartz: STFU Rush Limbaugh.
• Ed and Pap: Limbaugh’s lack of virility behind his hostility towards women.
• Newsy: Limbaugh’s slut comment.
• Women’s Health experts speak out.
  
• Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) speaks out against the Blunt amendment.
• Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) interviewed about the Blunt amendment.
• Newsy: Is the GOP losing ground in contraception war.
• Keith and Marcos: Rush, sluts and birth control.
• Alyona: What are men for?
• Jon on the blunt amendment debate
• Ann Telnaes: Romney’s stance on the Blunt amendment .

Newsy: Federal judge admits to forwarding racist email about Obama.

Sam Seder: The return of “Random Rush”.

Thom: Even more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Bizarre: Herman Cain hates goldfish…or something.

Bill Maher’s prediction.

Garfunkel and Oats: “Save the Rich” video:

Rush Limbaugh hoes his way to Worst Person in the World.

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Hey, remember when Ed Murray sold teachers down the river in an effort to secure votes for the budget? How’d that work out?

The data for pedestrian safety after the Nickerson Street road diet (pdf) is worth looking at. And as someone who supports road diets in general, it’s worth pointing to the good. Pedestrian collisions are down from the average of the last 5 years. But if we’re looking at accident rates to tell us something, we’ll have to factor in the fact that “SDOT installed two new marked crosswalks at Dravus Street and 11th Avenue W” at the same time.

Although, obviously reduction in speeds helps too:

Speed data was recorded between 6th Avenue W and 3rd Avenue W in June, 2007. Prior to the project, the 85th-percentile speeds in both directions exceeded the speed limit: 40.6 mph westbound and 44.0 mph eastbound. Approximately 90 percent of drivers exceeded the speed limit. Speed data was collected at the same location after rechannelization in February, 2011. The 85th percentile declined to 33.1 mph westbound and 33.3 eastbound. After rechannelization, the percent of speeders declined by two-thirds and the percent of drivers exceeding the speed limit by 10 or more miles per hour dropped by more than 90 percent.

Of course I don’t know what’s better for pedestrians, and they surely work in tandem. In any event, those of us who support road diets should talk about the success of Nickerson in terms safety walking the neighborhood. But we should also acknowledge that it’s more complex.

Current and former State Republican Party chairs have two things to say about tomorrow’s G.O.P. caucus:

Here is current Chair Kirby Wilbur with Fox News:

For the first time in decades, Republican caucus-goers in Washington state may have a real say in who runs for president.

“We have always been the ugly sister who never gets invited to the dance,” Washington state Republican Party Chairman Kirby Wilbur said. “But this year we’re the princess, and we really like it.”

And former Chair Chris Vance on KUOW:

Vance explains the candidate who “wins” Washington will have won a non-binding straw poll of caucus-goers. […]

But Vance says the results of the straw poll have nothing to do with which candidate gets the most delegates. And even then, in Washington, delegates aren’t committed to a candidate until they go to the state convention.

“So there is no accurate way to know who has won any delegates from Washington state,” Vance says.

So…tomorrow’s caucus are either: (1) The first time in forever that Washington state actually counts, or (2) a largely meaningless beauty contest.

The truth is somewhere in between. Clearly, whoever wins the beauty contest, will get some inertia and a fundraising boost. A Romney win will help solidify the perception that Romney is inevitable. A Santorum win will throw the contest into chaos until next Tuesday, when everyone will forget us. And a Ron Paul win will make us the laughing stock of the nation for a bit.

Who will win? Several months ago, before there was any polling, I would have said that the G.O.P. sheeple would go for the establishment candidate. In 2008 it was John McCain, who won both the primary and the caucus.

The 2008 primary results were pretty “mainstream” looking with 49.5% going for McCain and 24.1% going to Mike Huckabee. Ron Paul squeaked out 7.7% of the vote.

The 2008 caucus results brought out the fringe side of the state G.O.P. (and some controversy): 25.9% for McCain, 23.5% for Huckabee, and 21.6% for Ron Paul. Now you understand why Paul is focusing on caucus states….

There have been three polls taken this year for the 2012 G.O.P. caucus contest.

A mid-January SurveyUSA poll found Mitt leading the pack with 26%. Second was Newt Gingrich at 22% with Santorum nipping at his heels with 19%. Ron Paul squeaked out 7%.

In mid-February, PPP released a poll that put Santorum on top with 37%, Gingrich second with 20% with Mitt nipping at his heels at 18%. Ron Paul squeaked out 9%.

What a turn-around!

But today PPP released a new poll showing Mitt back on top with 37% and Santorum nipping at his heels with 32%. Ron Paul has surged to 16%, and the smartest man in the world, Newt, tumbling to 13%.

In other words…nobody has any fucking idea what is going to happen tomorrow. The volatility in the polls could be real—pollsters happened to capture the fall of Newt as well as the rise and fall of Santorum and the fall and rise of Mitt over these three polls. Or it could be issues of identifying people who will be caucusing.

From my perspective, the uncertainty adds to the entertainment value.

The uncertainty also provides some incentive for trouble-making—you know, Democrats pretending to be Republicans and showing up to caucus. It’s legal, even if you leave the event with the taint stain of Santorum….

Here’s how you can participate on Saturday (I mean, you don’t want to miss out on the most important and influential Washington state beauty contest in your lifetime, now, do you?) Mitt Romney has a handy set of instructions to help you find your caucus location.

And don’t forget to stock up on popcorn for the post-caucus show. Entertainment is what you should expect from a “beauty contest.”

Lots of retiring politicians in the news the past two days. I’ll chalk it up to the economic rebound, but feel free to offer your own theory….

Rep. Norm Dicks (WA-6) just announced his retirement:

The 18-term representative, first elected in 1976, said he and his wife Suzie “have made the decision to change gears and enjoy life at a different pace.”
[…]

Dicks is the ranking member on the powerful Appropriations Committee, and would become the panel’s chairman if Democrats won control of the House. […]

“Norm Dicks is a true Washington state institution,” Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) said in a statement. “But more than that, he is my mentor, my friend, my advisor, my teammate, and my brother. He is our state’s quarterback here in Congress, and I can’t imagine our delegation without him.

Yesterday we also learned of the retirements of state Rep. Mary Lou Dickerson (D-36) and state Rep. Phyllis Gutierrez-Kenney (D-46).

NORML, one of the oldest and most respected marijuana law reform organizations in the United States, has officially endorsed I-502. As expected, this has created another backlash from those within the reform community who think the bad parts of the bill outweigh any good that comes from having a statewide vote in favor of ending prohibition. In particular, the DUI provisions are what drive much of the opposition, and even though NORML expressed their opposition to its inclusion in the bill, they still support its passage.

My personal position isn’t too much different from NORML’s. I’m pained by the inclusion of the DUI provision, but I-502 is still likely to get my vote. But what’s been troubling to me is how much of the debate over the DUI provision seems to have very little scientific backing and how much of the “science” surrounding this topic appears to be contradictory or just pure nonsense.

To begin to wade through this debate, I want to post a video that illustrates how difficult all of this is to understand:

The video was taken during last year’s Cannabis Freedom March in May. It was during the signature gathering drive and Sensible Washington volunteer Mimi Meiwes was driving her RV around the state rallying support for the effort. Meiwes had driven the vehicle (dubbed the “Canna-bus”) up to Seattle from Kelso, and if you click ahead to 1:30 in the video, you’ll see her driving from Capital Hill to SoDo while being interviewed by the cameraman. I was actually a passenger in the vehicle at the time.

Meiwes is a medical marijuana patient (as she discusses in the video). She uses it throughout the day every day. However, as you can clearly see from the video, despite consuming marijuana that frequently, she’s not impaired at all as she navigates a gigantic RV through Seattle while being interviewed on camera. She continued to drive the Canna-bus across the state several times that spring, and despite using medical marijuana throughout that entire time, her driving ability was never impaired at any point.

I recognize that this is difficult for a lot of people to understand. There’s a strong desire to merely equate alcohol to marijuana in terms of drawing parallels, but the comparison doesn’t hold up. Even an alcoholic who consumes large amounts of booze all the time still gets drunk (even if their tolerance goes up). But individuals who consume large amount of marijuana (usually for medicinal reasons) stop feeling the typical intense psychoactive response that recreational users enjoy.

Taking an objective look at this, there are two main questions and neither one seems to have an easy answer:
– How much active THC does a person like Meiwes have in her system at any one time?
– How much do non-impaired drivers like Meiwes have to fear from a per se DUI?

I was intending only to write about the latter question in this post, but after reading this post from Russ Belville at the NORML blog, I want to start with the former question*.

Before reading Belville’s post, I’d been under the impression that folks who consume large amounts of marijuana will be well over the 5ng/ml active-THC DUI threshold even for many hours after last use. This was based upon what happened when Denver columnist William Breathes had his THC levels checked and discovered that even after 15 hours of abstinence, he still tested at a whopping 13.5ng/ml. But Belville points to a different study that shows something quite the opposite:

For comparison’s sake, Participant N is a 21-year-old obese African-American woman who admits to smoking pot starting at age 9. She admits to smoking a half-ounce per day and had done so that day. She didn’t even have detectable ng/mL when she checked in. Participant L, a man who’d smoked an ounce that day tested at only 0.4ng.

Obviously, something isn’t right here. For those who aren’t up on the measurements, an ounce of marijuana is a lot. A whole lot. Even when I was a 2-3 times a week marijuana user, it would take me about a year to use that much. So this study is saying that someone who smoked several hundred dollars worth of marijuana in a single day only tested at 0.4ng/ml, and another person who smoked half as much had no active-THC in their system at all.

What this study suggests (if it’s accurate) is one of two things. Either the existence of active-THC in one’s system really does fall to near-zero levels quickly after use – or someone has to smoke pounds of marijuana every day to be at 5ng/ml for several hours. Either way, this is clearly not compatible with the data point from Breathes in Denver. Something clearly isn’t correct and I have no way on knowing what it is.

If the study that Belville points to is accurate, though, then the concerns over the DUI provision are totally unwarranted. In fact, people would still be totally free to get baked and drive since most people consume far, far less than the remarkably prolific pot consumers they managed to find for this study. If a person can process an ounce of active-THC within a short period of time, they can easily process a gram or two faster than the officer can take you to the hospital for a blood draw.

But I obviously have my doubts about the accuracy of that study, and I’d love to get some feedback from the comments on what other studies have found. While a lot of people are merely interested in advocacy and propaganda as we approach this historic vote, I want to make sure we have the facts straight. If the DUI provision really does make drivers like Meiwes sitting ducks for the police to saddle with DUI’s, it certainly gives me pause.

[Read more…]

Is anyone going to caucus for president based on The Seattle Times’ endorsement? I don’t think so, and further, I think they realize it. Why else would they open their endorsement (bold mine):

THE 20th, and possibly last, debate among GOP presidential candidates is mercifully over. Washington’s Republican precinct caucuses on Saturday force a choice.

Hmmm. Ah, Mitt Romney. The former Massachusetts governor has the most potential in a thin field to represent his party in head-to-head competition with Democratic President Barack Obama.

This is certainly no endorsement of Romney’s candidacy. We share Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna’s obvious ambivalence about making an early commitment.

First off, what does Rob McKenna have to do with anything? Seriously, what? They didn’t even introduce it as anything. They just — what — think everyone who reads their editorials follows Rob McKenna as closely as them? There was no reason to mention him whatever.

Second, congrats for putting some actual snark in the ed page. I mean it when I say it could use more that, even if this time they executed it poorly.

More to the point, I love the phrase “this is certainly no endorsement” in the middle of the endorsement. It’s not like anyone is forcing them to endorse. Literally nobody changed their mind because of what they read in the editorials this morning. Nobody.

– Suck it, Portland.

– And hopefully we’ll get a transportation revenue bill.

– a state capital gains tax would tap into the enormous profits generated by such exclusive investment clubs, generating roughly $700 million a year in new resources for investments in education, health care, and other core economic structures.

– Andrew Breitbart has died.

– And how is Carol doing at the fish stick factory?

– I would totally watch all of these horrible, horrible movies.