HorsesAss.Org

When it comes to the initiative process, I’ve come to expect columnists and editorialists to miss the point. But in his current column [Stir up enough people, and you get initiative(s)], Bill Virgin seems to miss his own point when he writes:

“To get a reading on the hot-button issues that have the citizenry riled up, you could monitor the letters-to-the-editor column. You could sample what callers and hosts are gabbing about on talk radio shows.

Or you can scan the list of initiatives on file at the Secretary of State’s Office.”

Huh? Bill correctly states that all that is required to file an initiative is a $5.00 fee, and makes a point of mentioning some of the truly screwy initiatives that have been filed over the past couple years. So then, how does he jump to the conclusion that scanning the list of filed initiatives somehow puts his finger on the pulse of the people?

(Come to think of it, monitoring the letters-to-the-editor or talk radio shows is not a very reliable finger in the wind either.)

The bulk of initiative sponsors are crackpots, wide-eyed idealists, monied special interests… and paid professionals like Tim Eyman. Only the rarest of initiatives truly represent the popular expression of a riled citizenry.

Rarer still is a populist initiative that claws its way onto the ballot with a grassroots volunteer campaign.

Bill’s attempt to separate the wheat from the chaff, and look to those initiatives with the best chance of qualifying as a stronger measure of popular sentiment is an even more pointless exercise. Unless of course, one measures popular sentiment in dollars… which I suppose wouldn’t be surprising coming from a business columnist.

Let’s be totally honest about this. The initiatives that qualify for the ballot will be those that raise the most money — usually in large chunks from the special interests who have the most to gain by their passage.

It is not a riled citizenry that gets initiatives on the ballot… it is cold, hard, cash.

When I was in high school I took an SAT prep course where the instructor started by saying: “The only thing the SATs test, is how well you take the SATs.”

The Secretary of State’s list of initiatives tells you a lot about the intent of the sponsors, but in itself, it says little more about the will of the people than, well… Bill Virgin’s column.

So Bill… please don’t give Kemper Freeman and Tim Eyman any more credit than they deserve. They don’t need your credit. They already have plenty of cold, hard, cash.

I was back at Folklife today, this time with my 7-year-old daughter instead of flyers. But I couldn’t help notice the dearth of petitions for I-864 and I-892. In fact the only petitioner I saw hawking I-864 was flanked by two Think Before You Ink volunteers, quietly holding placards.

The rest of the paid signature gatherers got the message that Eyman’s petitions were bad for business, and instead focused on more lucrative initiatives.

Eyman’s going to be pissed about this, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a bit of a stink in the media. But I can tell you from my own personal experience that I didn’t keep a single person from signing his initiatives. The truth did. When voters understand the truth about I-864 and I-892, they simply don’t want to sign the petitions.

As I’ve said before, there is a reason why Eyman lies: it works.

Apparently, so can the truth.

What does it say about Tim Eyman, our alleged initiative “king,” when paid signature gatherers are afraid he’s giving them a bad name?

I spent a good portion of the day at Folklife, working with a handful of volunteers to shadow paid signature gatherers and ask voters not to sign I-864 or I-892. The one signature firm that was not handling either of Eyman’s initiatives had their workers prominently displaying “Not an Eyman Initiative” buttons. They were doing a brisk business.

The other paid signature gatherers were not so fortunate. Our simple message that voters should read the initiative and understand its impact before signing, pretty much made getting signatures impossible. Some signature gatherers actually handed over their Eyman petitions if we promised to leave them alone so they could focus on other petitions. Others left, grumbling that this was the last time they’d hawk an Eyman initiative.

The good news is that the exercise turned out to be very effective. The bad news is that we’re going to need a lot more volunteers to keep these initiatives off the ballot.

The Voter Education Committee is coordinating this “Think Before You Ink” campaign, and I encourage you all to join in the effort. I’ve posted more information at TaxSanity.org. You can also call their hotline at 800-856-2465 to learn how you can make a difference.

Together, we can make Washington State safe for direct democracy.

Tim is so rude. He never replies to my email. [“Dear Tim…”]

However I recently received a thoughtful epistle from one of his supporters, and though I tend to keep private correspondence, um… private, in light of the fact that he didn’t bother to use a real email address I thought I’d take the liberty of replying publicly.

Klaus (not his real name) writes: “Hey Goldberg,” (not my real name,) “I’m sic [sic] and tired of lefty east coast ivy league leaches [sic] like you moving out here and attacking REAL AMERICANS like Tim Eyman [really sick]. I’d tell you to go back where you came from, but nobody wants your people back.”

Hmmm. Where to start?

Well first, I hate to admit it Klaus, but you’re right: I am an Ivy Leaguer. I shamefully graduated with a B.A. in History from the University of Pennsylvania, where I was obviously indoctrinated in left-wing politics, and unlike you… spelling.

I suppose if I were a “REAL AMERICAN like Tim” (better check that sticky shift key, Klaus,) I would have majored in UPSIDE-DOWN MARGARITAS at a REAL SCHOOL like WSU.

But then, my “people” aren’t REAL AMERICANS, are we? We are “lefty east coast ivy league leaches [sic]” … by which, of course, you mean JEWS.

And as a Jew, I could never be a REAL AMERICAN like you or Tim or I-892’s biggest financial backer, the Great CANADIAN Gaming Corporation.

That said, I do have one nit to pick with your otherwise cogent observations: I’m pretty sure I would in fact be quite welcome if I were to decide to go back where I came from.

Philadelphia is a cosmopolitan city with a vibrant art and theater scene, and a diverse populace that understands that deep down, the most meaningful difference between your people and my people is that my people occasionally like to eat smoked fish for breakfast.

(And, we know how to spell.)

Well, I figured if I couldn’t get the media to stop repeating Eyman’s lies, then I would have to go straight to the horse’s… uh… mouth. Following is an email I sent to Tim Eyman today, and CC’d to the media:

Dear Tim,

I was hoping you could help me set the record straight in the media regarding the provision of I-892 that funds treatment of problem gambling.

You have repeatedly claimed that based on $1.15 billion in net revenues, I-892 would generate $11.5 million to treat problem gambling… which amounts to 1% of net revenues. However, Section 8 of I-892 clearly states that 1% of tax receipts are dedicated to treat problem gambling — about $4 million based on your revenue projections — or roughly one-third your claim.

I can only assume that you were unaware of your mathematical error, and would not knowingly repeat such grossly inaccurate information for fear of damaging your otherwise unsullied reputation as an honest and impartial arbiter of the truth.

Now that I have pointed out your mistake, I trust that you will revise your talking points to include the accurate, smaller number, as surely a citizen activist of your standing would never sacrifice the truth for the sake of a rhetorical advantage.

I continue to enjoy our close working relationship. Once this issue has been settled, I look forward to working with you to explicate the analytical basis of your revenue projections, which up until now appear to have simply been pulled out of your butt crack.

Hugs and kisses,

David

Enough said.

What does it take to get a reporter to pull out a goddamn calculator?!

Eyman says about $1.1 billion would be generated — nearly doubling the gambling industry’s net receipts in Washington last year. Thirty-five percent of that would go toward property tax relief.

The measure would also earmark 1 percent of those funds for problem gambling treatment, an amount Eyman says would total about $11 million, though critics say the number is greatly exaggerated.

This from an otherwise decent article in the Seattle P-I [Funding for problem gamblers]. But again, it repeats the lie!

All the numbers are there! And all the reporter had to do was add them up: ($1.1 billion * 35%) * 1% = $3.8 million, NOT $11 million as Eyman says.

What the fuck is so hard to understand here?!

It’s not “critics” who say the number is greatly exaggerated, it’s BASIC MATH!

(Hey Knute… and you wonder why people kick the crap out of the media?)

Todays Tacoma News Tribune has a great article about a new campaign to get the Legislature to provide permanent funding for treating Washington’s growing epidemic of compulsive gambling [New effort to treat gamblers.]

Great article… but…

It repeats the Lie of the Week:

“Eyman estimates that I-892 would provide $11.5 million a year for problem-gambling treatment, in addition to $400 million in property tax relief.”

If another newspaper repeats this lie, I am going to have an aneurism. Tim doesn’t even understand his own initiative! The real figure, based on Tim’s own revenue projections is only $4 million.

Again… this is not my opinion… it is simple math.

I-892 taxes the profit from slot machines at a rate of 35%. 99% of these tax dollars go to reduce the state property tax, and the other 1% goes to treat problem gambling.

Let’s forget for a moment that Tim’s estimate of $1.15 billion in profits is pulled out of his ass, without any supporting evidence. It is the figure that Eyman uses to calculate his promise of a $400 million tax cut, so it is our starting point.

$1.15 billion * .35 = $400 million in tax revenues. $400 million * .01 = $4 million to treat problem gambling, with the other $396 million going to reduce the property tax.

Is that really so hard?

At this point, some in the media might be rolling their eyes, thinking $4 million is still a lot money, so what’s the big deal? Well first… Eyman lies for a reason: it works. And second, that $4 million is pissing into the wind of the tornado of gambling that I-892 will bring down on our state.

As I’ve written before, the industry average payback on slot machines is 95%; that means Tim’s “estimate” of $1.15 billion in profits requires $23 billion in gross wagering.

That’s less than a penny to treat problem gambling, for every $57 million wagered. (Do the math yourself this time.)

Okay there’s the Lie of the Week. But before I finish my rant, I want to reiterate to the media why attributing Eyman’s “estimate” in quotes — or even including a rebuttal from me — doesn’t let you off the hook.

Eyman makes statements of fact that can easily be confirmed or refuted through a simple examination of the numbers in question. His oft repeated claims of a $400 million tax cut cannot possibly add up to $11.5 million to treat problem gambling, and can’t help but add up to $23 billion in gross wagering.

And it is the media’s responsibility to explain these numbers to the public, not mine.

In the current issue of The Seattle Weekly, Knute Berger complains about the public’s tendency to “kick the crap out of the news media” [E Pluribus Stupid,] suggesting that people have themselves to blame for their own ignorance.

“Well, here’s an idea: Instead of shooting messengers, why not do America a big favor and tackle your own ignorance? “

I think somebody needs a hug.

In his despair, Knute has overlooked one of the great things about being a journalist in this country: Americans generally don’t actually shoot messengers (even the ones that truly deserve it.) We criticize. We complain. We occasionally curse. But we don’t shoot.

And we do it because we know you can do better. Think of it as tough love.

Personally, I happen to have great respect for the media, and I think the reporters who know me can sense that. (You wouldn’t know Knute, because The Weekly has never deemed my activities as worthy of coverage as, say… Tim Eyman. I guess calling someone a “horse’s ass” is less respectable than being one.)

In fact, it is because I respect the press so much, that I occasionally kick the crap out of it. And even if I didn’t, what’s the big deal? My blog averages maybe 80 readers a day, whereas The Weekly claims a circulation of about 100,000. (Twice that, when they try to sell me an ad.)

And if you’re really so bothered by all the negative “watercooler conservation,” I’d say you’re spending way to much time sneaking around watercoolers. It’s a little creepy.

The point is, don’t take it so personal Knute.

And stop shooting your audience.

I just wanted to quickly say that I think Tim Eyman is starting to display the usual paranoia that tends to mark the transition off the manic phase of one of his bipolar swings.

Today he sent an email to his supporters warning about the “union thugs” who are intimidating his signature gatherers. My guess is, Tim often dwells on paranoid fantasies about union thugs, cruelly humiliating him by stripping him naked and forcing him to… no, wait… that was one of those Iraqi prison photos I was thinking of.

Anyway, in his email Tim makes all kinds of very specific charges about illegal tactics that, if true, would be truly scandalous. Of course, if true, he would have copied the email to the media, like he normally does.

My favorite line in the email was when he mentioned the “secret memo outlining their extensive plans to disrupt the signature gathering process.” Yeah… so secret that even Tim got it.

Wait a minute… how come Tim got the secret memo, and I didn’t? Now it’s all beginning to make sense… the unions and Tim working together… against me!

Hey Tim… pass the lithium.

If an influential politician was promising to increase gambling in Washington state by $23 billion a year — a twenty-fold increase — you’d think you’d hear about it in the media, right?

Wrong.

For that is exactly what Tim Eyman is promising when he asks voters to accept I-892’s legalization of slot machines in exchange for a $400 million property tax cut, and yet the press has been awfully quiet about the numbers.

How do I come up with $23 billion? Well, first I read the initiative. Then a did a little research (okay… I Googled.) And then I did the math.

Here’s how it breaks down. I-892 establishes a 35% tax on the “net win” (an odd term that actually means what the gambler loses.) 99% of these tax revenues go to reduce the state property tax; the other 1% goes to the Washington State Council on Problem Gambling (which happens to be controlled by the same corporations financing I-892. Go figure.)

We can thus calculate the net win required to produce Eyman’s projection quite easily: ($400 million / 35%) / 99%) = $1.2 billion

That represents how much money Washington citizens must lose each year to fund a $400 million tax cut. Quite a bargain, huh?

But how do we calculate the amount wagered? Well, all we need to know is the “payback” on slot machines… that is, the amount a slot machine pays back for every dollar gambled. Essentially, the odds. You can google this yourself, but it turns out the industry average is just about 95%. That means a casino makes only a nickel in profit from every dollar gambled on slots… which is part of what makes slot machines so addictive.

So, divide $1.2 billion by $.05, and you get $23 billion in gross wagering. (Okay, you get $24 billion, but the $1.2 billion figure was rounded up, and I like to be accurate.)

I know… boring blog material. But I promised I would occasionally get wonkish.

Anyway, the point is, when I-892’s opponents talk about the most massive expansion of gambling in state history, they’re not kidding. But you’d think they were, considering the media’s refusal to do the math and print the actual numbers.

I’m busy writing a real column in response to Tim Eyman’s latest fantasy in The Seattle P-I “I’m a lying, thieving, blowhard” (okay… I’m paraphrasing,) but I thought I’d take advantage of the creative freedom inherent in blogging, to jot down a few, unfiltered thoughts.

What a load of crap!

He writes 600 words on I-892 and never once bothers to tell readers that it LEGALIZES SLOT MACHINES!

Which is a pretty shrewd move on his part as poll after poll shows that voters are opposed to LEGALIZING SLOT MACHINES, and he clearly knows that if voters understand that I-892 LEGALIZES SLOT MACHINES, he’ll stand a better chance of winning at SLOT MACHINES than getting them approved at the ballot.

Of course it’s hard to blame the P-I’s editorial board for printing Eyman’s column, even though it’s ostensibly about an initiative that LEGALIZES SLOT MACHINES, while never once mentioning that it LEGALIZES SLOT MACHINES. After all, Tim is such a fine writer. I especially enjoy the way his essay follows the classic structure we all learned in high school English class:

1. Tell the readers an extended quote from Ghostbusters.
2. Tell them a bunch of lies.
3. Tell them what you said… while trashing Gary Locke.

Here are just a few of the lies the mainstream press won’t find the time to refute:

I-892 is NOT revenue-neutral! (See Lie of the Week: I-892 is revenue neutral? Not!)

I-892 can’t possibly reduce the property tax by $400 million. Eyman’s “conservative” estimate is pulled out of thin air. $400 million in tax savings would require over $4.6 billion in new wagering… a fanciful five-fold increase over 2003.

I-892 is NOT a tax-cut initiative… it’s about LEGALIZING SLOT MACHINES! Enough said.

So that’s the Lie of the Week. I apologize if it doesn’t meet my usual literary standards, but I couldn’t find my copy of Ghostbusters.

A quick perusal of the recent financial disclosure reports for I-892 — Tim Eyman’s “Slots for Tots” initiative — reveals an interesting footnote. While the bulk of the money comes from Canadian and Nevada-based gambling conglomerates, a fair number of bowling alleys have also contributed to the campaign.

Support from bowling alleys comprises the heart of Eyman’s claim that this is a battle for equal treatment for mom-and-pop businesses against a powerful “tribal monopoly.” Indeed, in the days following the initiative’s announcement, a handful of bowling alley owners made the rounds of talk radio arguing just that point.

I remember one particular phone call from a woman who pleaded for slot machines on behalf of the bowling alley that had been in her family for three generations. She claimed she just couldn’t compete against the tribal casinos anymore, and if I-892 didn’t pass, she would probably shutter the family business.

Now, at the risk of sounding unsympathetic, I’d like to impart a bit of wisdom from one small businessperson to another:

YOU’RE RUNNING A FUCKING BOWLING ALLEY!!!

And perhaps, instead of trying to compete with the tribal casinos, you should spend a little time and effort promoting… gee, I don’t know… bowling?!

Saying that bowling alleys need slot machines to compete with tribal casinos is like saying Chuck E. Cheese’s needs a liquor license and strippers to compete with the Deja Vu.

The point is, if you can’t make ends meet enticing people to chuck balls at pins, then perhaps you’re in the wrong business. Or sadly, perhaps bowling just isn’t a viable industry anymore.

That may sound harsh… but that’s capitalism. And until the tribes start building bowling alleys instead of casinos, I don’t want to hear anymore whining about unfair competition.

When I was a kid I loved to go bowling, despite the fact that I fairly consistently sucked. As a parent, bowling has its own rewards: playing against a 7-year-old girl almost guarantees me an occasional win.

I want bowling to survive… but as a rationale for legalizing slot machines, I find the argument utterly and completely ridiculous.

Besides, reluctantly putting my feet into those rented shoes is a gamble enough.

A couple weeks ago Phil Talmadge dropped out of the governor’s race due to health reasons, and while I probably wouldn’t have voted for him in the Democratic primary, I was genuinely sad to see him go.

Of course, his flagging funding raising, low visibility and meager poll numbers would have eventually knocked him out of contention even if his bum kidney hadn’t. But his is a voice that will be sorely missed from the public debate: the intelligent voice.

One of the things I always seek in politics — and rarely find — is a candidate who is smarter than me… and flaunts it. (Oh, there are plenty who flaunt it, but they’re usually shooting blanks.)

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Yesterday I suggested that Tim Eyman’s reputation as a lying, thieving, blowhard actually works to his advantage, as the media seems to treat his lack of credibility as an unspoken assumption. I suppose they think it a waste of time to research his claims, when nobody believes him anyway.

This is part of a larger double standard, where the “good guys” are expected to be good, and the “bad guys” are expected to be bad. And if the two sides ever stray from their assigned roles, it results in shock and dismay, or unwarranted praise.

An example of this has stuck in my craw the past few days, so I thought I’d better spit it out:

[Read more…]

Just a quick note to all those Windows users who were wondering what sort of aesthetic moron would layout a website so that all the text was centered? Well… the kind of moron who didn’t bother to view the site in Explorer for Windows. (Everything looked fine on my Mac.)

I could blame Adobe GoLive for creating crappy HTML, or Microsoft for their crappy, inconsistent browsers… but I’m just going to blame myself for being too lazy to review my work in the browser with 95% market share.

Man I feel stupid. (But not as stupid as Tim Eyman must feel every time he accidentally includes all 3800 email address in the TO header of his newsletter.)