HorsesAss.Org

One of the reasons political consultants favor negative attack ads, is that they generally work. It’s a lot easier driving up your opponent’s negatives than it is driving up your own candidate’s positives. And requires a lot less smarts and creativity too.

Another reason is that it is so damn lucrative.

Take, for example, last month’s unprecedented $1.5 million smear campaign attacking Democratic attorney general candidate Deborah Senn… (almost) secretly financed by the US Chamber of Commerce. According to PDC reports, longtime GOP consultant Bruce Boram’s firm, Catalyst Consulting, was paid at least $20,000 for his efforts managing the campaign.

And what were his efforts? He didn’t actually write the ads, or book the airtime. No, he made a few phone calls, contracted out the real work, and pocketed an Eyman-like $10,000-a-month fee.

Wow. $10,000 a month to throw mud at Senn. That must be a full-time job, right? You know, like the $3,641 a month Boram also earns as Executive Director of United for Washington. Or the $4000 a month Boram was earning as chief political consultant and spokesman for GOP 8th district congressional candidate Dave Reichert.

(Speaking of Reichert, while he did fire Boram after the controversy broke, he’s still employing Boram coconspirator and United for Washington Associate Director Valerie Huntsberry. You still have some housecleaning to do, Dave.)

Nasty work, but nice pay if you can get it. Hell, for $20,000, even I would be tempted to run a smear campaign against Senn… and I voted for her.

Loose ethics and even looser money leads to dirty politics.

I’m not one to toot my own horn. No wait… yes I am.

Anyway, just remember what I’ve been saying about the Democrat’s electoral advantage in WA state, and why that means supposedly unscary GOP candidates like Dino Rossi and George Nethercutt aren’t going to make their races nearly as close as pundits have suggested.

Last week it was revealed that the national GOP had pulled a million dollars worth of ads on behalf the beleaguered Nethercutt campaign. And now Joel Connelly reports that the national R’s may be pulling the plug on a planned negative ad blitz against Christine Gregoire. That doesn’t bode too well for Dino.

But then, neither do his poll numbers.

Chris Vance and his GOPolitburo would like you to believe that Rossi is not the same breed of right-wing wacko as Craswell and Carlson before him. (Again, sorry John, but you’re not exactly a yellow line or an armadillo.) But remember, this is the same party that nominated the likes of Craswell and Carlson in the first place. So what the hell do they know?

It’s not the voters guys… it’s your candidates.

I’ve spoken at a few initiative forums recently, opposing I-892 before community groups and other organizations. These forums are extremely informative for voters, as they allow for an exchange, pro and con, while questions from the audience keep both sides honest. (Or at least in Tim’s case, clearly expose his dishonesty.)

Unfortunately there is are no such checks and balances on campaign literature and advertising, resulting in some really egregious lies… of omission, and otherwise.

All the initiative campaigns will tell you that their measure will pass because it is popular with voters. So explain to me, for example, why the current TV ads for Referendum 55, which authorizes the creation of charter schools, doesn’t bother to mention um… charter schools?

What a weasly ad. Of course voters are concerned about failing schools. Of course we want to make our schools better. But if we thought charter schools were the answer, we wouldn’t have rejected them the last couple times they were on the ballot.

Charter school proponents know this, and so they neglect to mention what exactly it is R-55 does. Informed solely by these TV ads, voters would think they are simply being asked to vote for better schools. Now that’s a winning proposition.

The Initiative 892 campaign is similarly deceptive. I-892 legalizes slot machines, and puts them into over 2000 bars, restaurants and bowling alleys scattered through nearly every community in the state. It would be the most massive expansion of gambling in state history, and would dramatically increase access to the most addictive form of gambling every devised.

Of course, the campaign’s yard signs and literature don’t happen to mention slot machines or gambling. Why? Polls consistently show that voters are strongly opposed to expanding gambling, especially with slot machines, and especially, especially in their own neighborhood.

That’s why all the campaign ever talks about is lower property taxes. That’s why the gambling industry hired Tim Eyman to front the initiative, because love him or hate him (or really hate him) Eyman is a well known brand name associated with tax cut initiatives.

The gambling industry also knows that Tim has no problem with outright lies and distortions. His promised $400 million tax cut? Pulled out of thin air… he’s never once provided the data to support his projection, yet he has the gall to dismiss much lower projections from the Gambling Commission and the OFM as “laughable.” His much repeated statement that I-892 saves the “average property owner” $219.68 a year? Again… based on what?

Not to mention the fact that “average” savings are meaningless anyway… it’s median savings that illustrate the typical impact, and as the Tacoma News Tribune points out in today’s editorial opposing I-892, that would amount to about $5 a month. (Probably less.)

Now I know what some of you are thinking. This is politics, and we should expect campaigns to emphasize their strengths, while hushing up their weaknesses. But when it comes to initiatives and referendum — complex pieces of legislation — it makes for a really crappy debate that more often than not, fails to educate voters enough to make an informed decision.

How many people will vote for I-892 thinking it gives them a huge tax cut while merely expanding lottery ticket machines? How many people will vote for R-55 not realizing it authorizes charter schools? How many people will vote for I-872 believing it restores the blanket primary?

Voters do have these mistaken impressions. And initiative sponsors are counting on it. And that is irresponsible politics.

Did Kerry win the debate? Well, he didn’t lose, and that’s all that counts.

You’re going to hear a lot about how much better Bush did this time around, but that’s starting from a pretty low standard. Besides, it doesn’t really matter anymore how well Bush does. As long as Kerry performs well, he wins.

Let’s face it, the incumbent is a lying sack of shit with a record of incompetence, possibly unparalleled in American history. Now perhaps the majority of “undecided” voters wouldn’t phrase it so strongly, but if after four years of Bush they are still undecided, they clearly share the sentiment to some degree. All Kerry needs to do to win this election is present himself as a credible alternative, and he has clearly done that. (Again, a pretty low standard to start from.)

The fact that Bush didn’t fall flat on his face this time, doesn’t add up to a victory. Indeed, even by standard debate scoring, Kerry clearly won, a fact the “instant polls” confirm.

When Kerry wins this election, it will be because the undecided made up their minds on Bush a long time ago.

Listening to the Randi Rhodes Show on Air America Radio the day after the first Kerry-Bush debate, I was initially taken aback by several callers, who suggested that Bush was secretly being prompted via a hidden earpiece. I knew Bush was a liar, but it hadn’t occurred to me that he would actually risk being caught cheating.

Randi’s staff quickly whipped up a very amusing sketch, in which the angry voice of Dick Cheney is heard barking instructions in his ear, as Bush rambles in the background.

Well, sometimes paranoid rumors turn out to be true, and an article in Salon today suggests that Bush was indeed wired for the first debate: “Bush’s mystery bulge“. The article includes the photo above, captured from CSPAN video… that clearly shows some sort of device underneath Bush’s suit jacket, with what appears to be a wire leading up towards his neck.

According to IsBushWired.com (talk about a specialized blog), Bush’s speech rhythms, word choices, and constantly shifting eye movements all suggest he is being fed lines and cues from offstage. And other evidence suggests he has been using an earpiece for some time:

Television viewers have sometimes heard another voice speaking Bush’s words before he says them. When Bush spoke at D-Day ceremonies in France last June, for example, viewers watching on CNN, Fox and MSNBC, including mediachannel.org’s Danny Schechter, were startled to hear another voice speaking Bush’s words as if to prompt him. Some said this continued into a q & a. And on the night of 9/11, when Bush appeared on television to address the nation, viewers of one television station in Quincy, Massachusetts heard another voice speaking, slowly and carefully, a few words at a time — words which were then recited by the president. The voice was nondescript, male, definitely not the president’s voice, says Quincy resident Robyn Miller. This went on for at least four sentences, she says, and then the “extra” feed was cut off.

Wow.

It didn’t surprise me that Bush sucked so badly during the first debate, and I guess it doesn’t surprise me that he might have cheated. But to both cheat and suck, well… that’s just pathetic.

Despite canceling $1 million worth of television ad space here, the National Republican Senatorial Committee says it has not lost faith in George Nethercutt’s campaign to unseat Democratic Sen. Patty Murray.

The committee, which is the main source of soft money for Senate GOP candidates, canceled more than $1 million of reserved network advertising space in the Seattle market earlier this week.

Yeah… nothing shows faith in a candidate like pulling a million dollars worth of ads.

The GOP made two mistakes in WA’s senatorial race. First, they once again underestimated the physically diminutive Patty Murray. Second, they overestimated the politically diminutive George Nethercutt. Now that it’s become apparent that the grumpy, duplicitous Nethercutt will go down in a landslide on Nov. 2, the GOP has wisely decided to shift their money to a race they might actually have a chance of winning.

“That’s ridiculous,” Nethercutt spokesman Alex Conant is quoted as saying in today’s Seattle P-I.

Stop it Al… you’re making me dizzy.

Of course, spinning the story around the national GOP pulling the financial plug on your campaign, is still preferable to talking about the $10,000 the Federal Election Commission just fined you for failing to file finance reports on time. But it is hard to believe anything coming from the campaign of candidate who built his career on a record of lies, distortions, and broken promises.

Nethercutt made a grave miscalculation when he gave up his safe congressional seat to go after a senator he thought would be easy pickings… for he has been overmatched by Patty Murray in everything but height.

It is thus fitting that a man who won high office running on an insincere pledge to limit his service to three terms, finds himself removed from public life — five terms later — due to the inherent limitations of his own character and intellect.

I haven’t blogged on Collin Levey recently, but I just couldn’t ignore another of her bizarrely obsessive and unpatriotic attacks on ketchup. [“Ketchup: the Death of Democracy”… or something like that.]

Now perhaps Collin puts mayonnaise on her pomme frites, but I wouldn’t touch a fried Idaho without a tangy, tomatoey dollop of America’s favorite condiment. And like a majority of my countrymen, my ketchup of choice has always been Heinz.

So it seems odd that Collin insists on emphasizing the Heinz in Teresa Heinz Kerry, as if her name suggested some sort of evil corporate affiliation… like Dick Halliburton Cheney, or George bin Laden Bush. Heinz is a much beloved brand name, especially to the people of western Pennsylvania, where Heinz ketchup is not only an essential topping on their all-American burgers, but where grateful communities benefit from the tens or millions of dollars bestowed annually by Teresa and her late husband’s foundation.

Four times in her column, Collin refers to Teresa simply as “Heinz Kerry”, where as Laura Bush is always referred to as “Laura” or, well… “Laura Bush.”

Curiously, Laura’s middle name is “Welch”, singularly evocative of another well known American brand name, “Welches”, purveyors of grape juice and jam. So why have Collin and her colleagues in the right-wing media echo chamber focused on the “Heinz” in Teresa Heinz Kerry, while ignoring Laura Welch Bush’s missing middle name?

What grape-stained scandal is the media trying to hide? What sticky mess lies beneath Welch Bush’s white bread exterior? Collin continues to insinuate “sinister financial doings” involving the Heinz estate, yet at least Teresa still proudly wears her middle name.

A conspiratorial mind might wonder what kind of a moral, ethical or legal jam Laura Welch Bush got herself into to cause her to drop her middle name entirely? (And I’m not necessarily talking about the time she killed her boyfriend.)

So criticize Teresa Heinz Kerry all you want Collin… but I’d rather have a first lady with ketchup on her hands, not blood.

Since post debate instant polls (just add water) are all the rage this year, I thought I’d post a new poll in the wake of my historic debate with Tim Eyman.

And for those interested, the final results from my previous “lame-ass poll” were very revealing:

Kerry 85%
LaRouche 8%
Nader 5%

The most interesting part of this result is that perennial nutcase Lyndon LaRouche beat Green/Reform/Angry candidate Ralph Nader. And LaRouche isn’t even running.

Of course, this poll was totally unscientific. But that doesn’t seem to stop the Gallup organization.

I got a chance to debate Tim Eyman on I-892 before the Federal Way Chamber of Commerce today. While we’ve sparred a few times on the radio, it was the first time I’ve had the chance to go at him in person.

Before starting, Tim made a comment to the audience that this was going to be fun. It was. But not for him.

Perhaps he just thinks of me as an irreverent, name calling, prankster… but I’ve got a better grasp of his own initiative than he does. And, I’m so familiar with his rhetoric that I could routinely preempt his rebuttals in my own initial statements. He seemed annoyed at my ability to point out his lies and distortions, and tried to cover it up with his trademark shit-eating-grin.

Afterwards I received many positive comments from this pro-business audience, including several people who said they were reconsidering their support of I-892.

It’s amazing, how when armed with the facts, voters tend to make the right decisions at the polls.

The battle over I-892 is simple: it is the most massive expansion of gambling in state history, putting 18,255 slot machines into over 2000 neighborhood bars, restaurants, and bowling alleys scattered through nearly every community in the state… dramatically increasing access to the most addictive form of gambling ever devised.

If voters understand that, I-892 will lose.

For those of my regular readers who are also members of the Federal Way Chamber of Commerce (hey… it could happen), I urge you to join me tomorrow at the chamber’s “Initiative Forum” luncheon, where Tim Eyman will be defending I-892 against… me.

I’ve had a number of opportunities to debate Tim on the radio, but this is the first time we’ll be doing it face to face. In fact, last time we were in the same room together, Tim wouldn’t even make eye contact with me, so this should be fun.

Assuming he shows up.

And while we’re on the subject, I direct your attention to the editorial in today’s Seattle P-I: “I-892 a sucker’s bet.”

Regular readers already know my opinion on parking fees at public parks (“Putting the public into public parks“)… those who can afford the fees the least, are those who need the parks the most. And by saving tax dollars, we waste tax dollars: for what is the use of a public park that nobody uses?

Now Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels has announced a new budget propped up by parking fees at city parks. This is a cowardly, myopic proposal, that undermines the entire concept of public parks. This Nickels-and-dime approach to funding public services will also, in the long run, undermine support for future tax levies.

Am I exaggerating the impact? I don’t think so. Nickels’ budget also includes a $5 fee for the Volunteer Park Conservatory:

The proposed $5 fee is expected to raise about $450,000 for the parks department next year. That assumes a 40 percent drop in attendance because of the fee, park Superintendent Ken Bounds said. He said the conservatory had about 140,000 visitors last year.

A 40 percent drop in attendance! It’s simple economics. You charge an admission fee for city parks (and that’s what a parking fee amounts to for most of the visitors) and the parks will be used less. Much less.

Councilman Nick Lacata seems to get the point:

We are in danger of becoming more of a closed society, filtering out those who can afford to visit urban amenities, and those who can’t.”

Damn right, we are!

One of the parks to get parking meters is Seward Park, which serves me, and the rest of South Seattle. Walking through Seward Park is the closest you’ll get in Seattle to the multi-ethnic experience of riding the New York subways.

While the park may be surrounded by million-dollar homes, many of those who use it come from the working class and immigrant communities of the Rainier Valley. Public parks like Seward, are physical representations of our nation’s grand democratic vision, where people of every color and every language and every economic strata can join with their more affluent neighbors as equal citizens.

And from a more selfish perspective… hell if I’m going to fill a meter for the privilege of taking my daughter to my local playground for 30 minutes! I pay my taxes! I’ve voted for every damn parks levy the city has put on the ballot! And I don’t want the city sticking its hands into my pockets every time I use my neighborhood park!

This is exactly the type of crap that creates Eymans. People don’t mind paying taxes when they think they’re getting something in return. But if these new fees go through, I bet you dollars to donuts, the next park levy fails.

Yet another major poll has come out showing Bush’s late summer lead in the polls to have been illusory, this time from Zogby International, which reports Bush 46%, Kerry 45%. Of course, the Zogby polls have been much more consistent than most of the others, never showing Bush with a lead outside the margin error.

And while you’re skimming the Zogby site, I strongly recommend you read the pre-debate column from John Zogby, in which he reaffirms his predictions from last May that Kerry would win in November: “The Race Is Still Kerry’s To Lose]”.

Zogby argues that Bush’s negatives amongst undecided voters are simply too high:

From there we see a startling statistic: only 16% to 20% of undecided voters feel that the President deserves to be re-elected. Forty-percent of this relatively small group feel that it is time for someone new.

To win, Kerry needs to give undecided voters a reason to vote for him. And last Thursday’s debate was an important step.

Remember those bizarre Gallup polls that showed Bush with as much as a 14 point lead? Well guess what… according to their latest, post debate poll, it’s now a dead heat. Not a statistical dead heat, but an actual dead heat: 49% to 49%.

So what’s more fickle, voters or the Gallup Poll?

Meanwhile, as the NY Times reports, voter registration rolls continue to swell, undermining the “likely voter” model used by all the national polls. [As Deadlines Hit, Rolls of Voters Show Big Surge]

In Montgomery County, Pa., the elections staff has been working nights and weekends since the week before Labor Day to process the crush of registrations – some 32,000 since May and counting.

I grew up in Montgomery County, Pa., and I can tell you, this has never happened before. And I can also tell you that it’s not suburban Republicans that are registering in record numbers… they were already registered. It’s Democrats who are driving this surge in Montgomery County, and across the city line in Philadelphia.

More from the NY Times:

It is harder to say what is driving the registration increase in Montgomery County, which is still considered “a Republican town” even though it went for Mr. Gore in 2000 and Bill Clinton before that. One of the wealthiest counties in Pennsylvania, it has had a lot of new building in recent years. But it also has working-class communities and is about 10 percent minority, and the community organizations say they have worked hard to register people here.

Some people registering have lived here for years but have not voted.

“I’ve been too lazy,” said Kurt Saukaitis, 43, who was registering at the county office. He and his new wife, Candy, both have 16-year-old sons. “The thought of a draft is scary,” Mr. Saukaitis said.

It is one thing to oppose the war in Iraq. It’s another to send your own sons to die there.

My stomach turned as I read Thomas Shapley’s column in today’s P-I, describing George Nethercutt’s despicable ads comparing Patty Murray to Osama bin Laden. I don’t know what is more disgusting… that a politician would air such an ad, or that voters are so stupid as to be swayed by them?

This is a sign of a desperate campaign. And a shameless one.

Last week I told you not to pay attention to the polls showing Bush with a substantial lead over Kerry. They lie.

As evidence, I cite the latest the Newsweek poll, taken in the wake of Kerry’s thumping of Bush in Thursday’s debate: Kerry 47%… Bush 45%.

Now, do you really believe that Kerry had a slight but steady lead through most of the summer, and then Bush jumped ahead by 10 points on the basis of his convention, only to see it evaporate entirely after a single debate?

The polls are crap.

One thing I am willing to bet money on… by 2000 standards, this election won’t be close (at least in the popular vote.) Whoever wins is going to win by greater than a five percent spread. And I believe it’s going to be Kerry.