This analysis examines the relative strength of Obama and Romney over the past nine months, using all available state head-to-head polls (something over 200 of them).
There haven’t been any new state head-to-head polls released in this race since just before Christmas. The pollsters went on vacation, and have since turned their attention to primary polls.
I’ve used the week since the previous analysis to hunt down older polls for this race going back to late 2010. I’ve also double checked the numbers from my first flurry of entering poll data into the computer and found two errors: I flipped the Obama and Romney numbers in a PA poll (which now causes the state to look a little bluer), and I fixed an incorrect sample size in a Georga poll. Among the newly-discovered (but older) polls, I’ve found the only poll from ND and a TN poll that is more recent than any other.
Here is the basic analysis using all state polls taken within the past month or, failing that, the most recent poll:
Obama | Romney |
95.8% probability of winning | 4.2% probability of winning |
Mean of 316 electoral votes | Mean of 222 electoral votes |
After 10,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 9,583 times and Romney wins 417 times (including the 34 ties). Obama receives (on average) 316 to Romney’s 222 electoral votes. Obama has a 95.8% probability of winning and Romney has a 4.2% probability of winning.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations: