HorsesAss.Org

Please join us for another evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

There are three primary events tonight: The Minnesota and Colorado caucuses and the no-stakes “show-me” primary in Missouri. This one looks pretty interesting. The latest polls show:

• Gingrich is polling third in Colorado, behind Romney and Santorum
• Santorum has a slight lead over Romney in Minnesota
• Santorum may even take Missouri (though based on a slightly older poll)

Will Santorum really win two out of three?!? Clearly we’ll have some live blogging going on for this G.O.P. train-wreck.

Drinking Liberally–Seattle meets every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our nominal starting time is 8:00 pm, but some of us will show up much earlier for the political happenings.

Can’t make it to Seattle? There is also a meeting tonight of the Tri-Cities chapters. On Thursday, Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets.

With 227 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

Today is an auspicious day for Mitt Romney. It was four years ago today that he surrendered:

Romney’s candidacy, into which he has dumped well more than $35 million of his own fortune, had become a longshot, slipping far behind John McCain and losing ground even to Mike Huckabee. But he said he was pulling out of the race and clearing the way for McCain’s nomination for the good of the party and, ultimately, the country.

The good of the country?!? What the fuck?

As president, either of the Democratic contenders, Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, Romney asserted, “would retreat and declare defeat” in Iraq and the war on terror. “And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign be part of aiding a surrender to terror,” Romney said.

Oh yes…we all remember that day when our President, Barack Hussein Obama, handed keys to the White House over to Osama bin Laden—you know, shaped into and delivered to Osama in the form of a bullet. To the head. But, you know, with a limited stealth operation instead of a full military invasion, it was kind-of surrenderish.

Four years ago now, the G.O.P. front-runner was John McCain. My Monte Carlo-based analysis of the polling data had McCain leading Sen. Obama by 341 to 197 electoral votes and Sen. Hillary Clinton by 310 to 228 electoral votes.

How did Romney stack up against Obama at the time? My last analysis in that match-up had Obama trouncing Romney 378 to 160 electoral votes. Four years later, the “score” has Obama up 335 to 203. Not much of a marginal return on investment after the first $35 million!

Today is auspicious for another reason. Romney will win at least one of the three primary contests—Colorado caucus for sure. But he’ll sure be red-faced if he only wins one of the three. And the last polling in Minnesota shows Santorum with a double-digit lead over Romney—who may even finish third or fourth. The most recent poll for the Missouri primary was from late January and showed Rick Santorum over Romney by +11%.

If he does suffer a pair of losses tonight, Mitt should consider for future 7 Feb to not even get up in the morning—instead, he should spend the whole day nestled in his recharging unit.

That’s the Appeals Court ruling on California’s same-sex marriage ban.

“Proposition 8 serves no purpose, and has no effect, other than to lessen the status and human dignity of gays and lesbians in California, and to officially reclassify their relationships and families as inferior to those of opposite-sex couples,” wrote U.S. Circuit Judge Stephen Reinhardt. “The Constitution simply does not allow for laws of this sort.”

– Yesterday was the anniversary of the Seattle General Strike.

– Today is a much worse anniversary for Seattle.

– the real winners are the banks and the one percent.

– Fuck you Penn Jillette.

– Karen Handel has resigned from Komen.

– We need to preach what we practice: Catholics like sex as much as the rest of y’all, and 98 percent of us plan our families. The president shouldn’t be punished politically for doing the right thing. He should be praised.

– The rightwingoverse

Because they are SO FUCKING STOOOPID!!!

(h/t HuffPo)

Update: Mike Huckabee provides even more evidence for the Stooopid thesis (my emphasis):

“[I]t’s tragic that the Planned Parenthood organization now tries to present themselves primarily a health organization when they are primarily an abortion provider…. They provide some services. I will grant you that. But they are maybe on the fringes — are external portion of what they are primarily all about.”

Wingnut math: 3% == “a primary service”.

Before it gets too stale, here are some Komen links:

– Erica C. Barnett has a good overview of the situation as of Friday.

– Joan Walsh and Rebecca Traister on how the decision woke the country up to an alarming rightward drift, and gave new life to women’s health advocacy

– Pondering breast cancer, politics, and the 2 percent

– 5 Important Lessons from the Komen/Planned Parenthood Fiasco (Don’t Mess With Women’s Health)

– In case you missed it, a strange local connection. Some of the sales from the pink gun were donated to the Seattle Branch of the Susan G. Komen Foundation. (h/t to Geov)

Non-Komen items:

– You’ll never believe this, but sometimes The Seattle Times’ Ed Board say dishonest things.

– Nearly 150 truck drivers effectively shut down shipping out of the Port of Seattle when they went to the state capitol in Olympia instead of the port, to protest dangerous work conditions in the trucking industry. Drivers were so concerned about the way the industry treats them that they risked their careers to make their voices heard.

– The thing is, highly publicized “boy meets girl” (and “boy meets boy”) stories are nice, but they’re not the reality for most riders. And (if I may keep it real for a moment) sometimes, they’re a bit gag inducing. What I find most romantic about buses (no disrespect to Smooth Jazz) is the possibility of meaningful connections with strangers–not the kind that lead to a subway platform proposal or a bus-themed wedding, but the kind that leave you energized, enriched, and educated. The kind that make a difference in your day.

– An unusual wasp

There is some football game on or something. I’m busy doing work stuff this afternoon and, frankly, when I woke up this morning, I didn’t even know who was playing. I guess I can have the game it on as background noise.

If, like me, you don’t have a teevee, Westwood one affiliates will carry the game. In the Seattle area, you can find it on 950 on the AM dial.

Anyway…snark away in the comment threads if you wish.

3:45: Somebody scored a basket.

3:50: Did Tom Cruise just score?

3:53: Damn…Redmond’s best Thai restaurant has closed.

3:56: Meanwhile, the score in Nevada (via Nevada GOP):

Current #NVCaucus results with 72.9% of precincts reporting: Gingrich: 22.3%, Paul: 18.6%, Romney: 48.1%, Santorum 10.9%, No Vote: 0.2%

72.9% complete? Have they run out of fingers?

4:18: From Twitopia:

Ana Marie Cox @anamariecox
“Illegal huddle” also something Santorum has campaigned against. #SuperBowl

4:25: Is this USA Today headline a double entendre? Brown student uncovers lost Malcolm X speech.

4:50: Poll Analysis: Patriots ahead of Giants by +1 halfway through contest.

5:19: From Twitopia:

Newt Gingrich Ideas @GingrichIdeas
Use Madonna’s outfit as a model for my Moon Emperor uniform.

5:48: Clearly, Obama has won over the hearts and minds and companies of Detroit:

5:59: Rush Limbaugh goes “green”.

6:00: Remember Shrub’s “sporting” moment? What is it about Wingnuts going nostril spelunking during sporting events? Do they think they’re digging for gold? Or do they imagine themselves wiping out poor people?

6:11: The National Football League can admit, seat, entertain for 3+ hours, and clear out 68,658 people in far less time than it takes the Nevada GOP to tally votes for some 35,000 caucus-goers?

6:51: It’s over. The Yankees win…again.

Last week’s contest was damn near impossible. The correct answer was Houston, Texas. This one was so hard, it actually took me 10 minutes to re-find it in order to post the link.

This week’s is a little easier, also a random location somewhere on earth. Good luck!

Leviticus 3:17
So you and your descendants must never eat any fat or any blood, not even in the privacy of your own homes. This law will never change.

Discuss.

It is a beautiful day in the Puget Sound region, so I don’t know how many people will be around here this evening. In any case, Nevada caucus results should come in sometime after 5:00 pm.

I should be able to do some commentary.

Have at it in the comment thread.

4:43: Turnout seems to be down in at least one county:

The GOP presidential caucus attracted about 6,700 voters on Saturday [in Washoe County], down from the estimated 11,000 to 14,000 that showed up for the presidential caucus in 2008….

4:46: Live updates are supposed to be available at CNN. It isn’t working for me yet.

4:51: The most recent poll in Nevada that I’ve found is this one from PPP:

• Romney 50%
• Gingrich 25%
• Paul 15%
• Santorum 8%

5:00: It’s five and CNN is still just showing a scenery shot with no audio.

5:05: Here is the Nevada GOP web page.

5:06: With only Eureka County reporting results are (4% reporting):

• Romney 34.3%
• Gingrich 30.3%
• Paul 18.2%
• Santorum 17.2%

5:09: Pershing County weighs in. Both counties combined. Romney stretches his lead over Gingrich, and Paul slips behind Santorum.

• Romney 41.7%
• Gingrich 27.0%
• Santorum 15.9%
• Paul 15.5%

5:13: Now we have Churchill County. Romney strengthens his lead. Santorum spurts out ahead of Ron Paul.

• Romney 45.9%
• Gingrich 20.8%
• Santorum 17.7%
• Paul 15.5%

5:34: Nye and Mineral Counties report. Ron Paul surges ahead of Gingrich:

• Romney 36.7%
• Paul 29.6%
• Gingrich 19.7%
• Santorum 12.9%

5:44: Cool…I found the code to embed the results tool….
[Read more…]

The Cook Political report has released a new batch of ratings for competitive House races.

The two Washington state races that make the list are WA-1, the seat being vacated by Rep. Jay Inslee for his gubernatorial run, and the new WA-10. (Here is a map of the new Washington state Congressional districts.)

WA-10 is rated Safe Democratic, and Cook’s Partisan Voter Index (PVI) for the district is D+5.

WA-1 is rated Lean Democratic, with a PVI of D+3.

These ratings have been stable for awhile.

Nationally Democrats have 20 seats rated as lean or toss-up, Republicans have 32. Just a month ago, Democrats had 23 and Republicans had 29.

Update: Here is a graph of the count of lean/toss-up seats since the beginning of the year:

The trend in this graph lends credibility to suggestions that Democrats may win back the House in 2012….

Wingnuts believe in voter fraud the way they believe cutting revenues increases revenues. For them, the topic of voter fraud induces apoplectic foaming at the mouth the way a good Pentecostal revival induces intense spells of speaking in tongues.

And it’s bizarre because actual cases of voter fraud are few and far between.

Well…we now have one more example—someone who has actually been convicted of voter fraud.

I know it is totally “impossible” to believe but the voting fraudster is a Republican.

Not just any Republican, but Charlie White, former chairman of the Republican Party in Hamilton County [Indiana]. Oh…and current Secretary of State.

So, just keep in mind, when a Republican gets all alarmist about voter fraud, they are likely engaging in an exercise of psychological projection—they are expressing fears of what they would do if they had the opportunity.

An interesting question is what will happen now in Indiana. Indiana law requires the removal of public officers convicted of a felony, and the Governor gets to appoint the replacement.

The Governor—that would be Republican Governor Mitch Daniels—presumably has the power to appoint at his pleasure. But….

Separately, a Marion County judge in December ruled that White was not eligible to run for secretary of state in 2010 because he was not properly registered at his own address. White has been allowed to stay in office while he appeals that ruling.

The Marion County judge ruled that the Democrat White defeated by more than 340,000 votes in 2010, Vop Osili, should be declared the winner of the election.

This is going to get real interesting!

Thom: AZ Gov. Brewer’s latest war…on public workers.

ONN: Panelists discussing debate clearly didn’t watch it.

Jennifer Granholm: Why GOP policies don’t address income disparities in America.

Young Turks: Republicans busting public employee unions in AZ.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

The SuperPAC Bites Back:

• Ann Telnaes: Feeding the SuperPac beast
• Stephen on the Americone Dream Super Pack pack.
• Mark Fiore: Generic SuperPac Advertisement.
• Stephen: The Greatest American SuperPAC donors.
• SuperPAC meets the Superbowl.

Young Turks: The rectal exam amendment to anti-abortion bill.

White House: Tuskegee Airmen visit the White House:

Pap: How will the Occupy movement evolve?

Ed: “Wisconsin on steroids”.

Young Turks: Obama’s National Prayer Breakfast (Romney vs the poor).

Sam Seder: Indiana state Senate find Scientology in their Creationism.

Flashback: Newt Gingrich talks about asking advice from Penn State football coach Joe Paterno about assistant coaches (via Political Wire).

Young Turks: Nutcase Senator Hatch to Obama “You’re not Jesus”.

The G.O.P. Primary Freak Show:

• Sam Seder: Anonymous exposes Ron Paul.
• Rick Santorum suffers from some Bad Lip Reading:
• ONN: GOP race now between Mitt and total voter apathy and other news of the week.
• Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Newt hates freedom of religion.
• Actual Audio: Sarah Palin defends Newt (or is it a poetry slam?)
• Ed and Pap: The end of Newt?
• Newt would like to live on the moon.
• Ann Telnaes: Newt’s ideas are hard to digest.
• Thom: Did the Gingrich campaign commit election fraud?
• Alyona: Romney will ‘fix’ safety net by gutting it.
• Jon on Mitt’s lack of concern for the poor (via Political Wire).
• Young Turks: Romney doesn’t care about poor people.
• Mitt’s most out of touch moments.
• Jennifer Granholm: UAW president says Mitt Romney can’t win Michigan.
• Young Turks: Romney ‘misspoke’ on ‘very poor’ comments.
• Red State Update: Mitt hates old people and wins Florida anyway.
• Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Spotlight on Mitt
• Mitt commits ANOTHER unforced error:
• Jon: Mitt, Donald and the coalition of the wealthy.
• Thom: That’s not Punxatawney Phil…it’s…Trump!
• Mitt gets glitter bombed (and can’t sing) (via Crooks and Liars).

Sam Seder: Washington seat close to passing same-sex marriage bill.

Liberal Viewer: Michelle Malkin &Bill O’Reilly lie on Gitmo lawyers exposed.

Stephen: Tea Party demands to rewrite history.

Thom: The GOP all out assault on workers.

White House: West Wing Week.

Shuster with Michael Musto on a recent study showing that lower IQs lead to conservative views:

Sam Seder: In Alabama, God says “don’t raise Teacher pay”.

The Komen Kaper:

• Young Turks: Komen severs relationship with Planned Parenthood.
• Newsy: Funding pulled from Planned Parenthood for political reasons.
• Buzz 60: Uproar as Komen pulls plug on Planned Parenthood
• Young Turks: Planned Parenthood donations soar.
• Ann Telnaes: Komen v. Planned Parenthood.
• Young Turks take on anti-abortion activist.
• Shuster: The backlash.
• Young Turks: Komen reverses decision.
• Newsy: Komen restores Planned Parenthood grants.

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Jennifer Granholm: Will voter ID laws make voting more secure—or more selective?.

Newsy: Jobless claims drop for 5th month in a row.

Young Turks: 243K jobs created in January.

Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Reading this post by Senator Paull Shin (h/t) on his vote against the marriage equality bill, this really bugged me:

My adopted family raised me as they raised their own children, with strong Christian values. To this day, I cherish those values and try to live my life in accordance with their teachings. Therefore my vote against passage of this bill was one that was deeply personal.

Senator Shin is free to find his values wherever he wants, of course. And if he lives his life according to those values, well great. But the job of state senator is to represent our secular, multi-religious, multicultural state and our secular, multi-religious, multicultural country. Those values should inspire legislation, not the values of any one faith.

The other bad thing about that argument (although he walks it back later in the piece) is that it implies that there’s only one way for Christians to vote. That Christians should unthinkingly all agree on public policy in 2012, in America, based on a book written thousands of years ago. That they should all agree with the most regressive version of Christianity not just in their personal lives but in public policy. As if the main Senate sponsor, and the governor who pushed it weren’t Catholics. As if most of the people who voted for it weren’t Christians.

If you want to make horrible arguments for a bad vote, go ahead. But don’t tell me Jesus made you do it.